Dynasties already going the way of re-drafts? (1 Viewer)

[offdee]

We've completed round 1 in our Dynasty League rookie draft, and a few members had this quick conversation on our league message boards....

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Want to talk about predictable, this is the dullest draft yet.

yup, it’s a sad, sad day in dynasty land. The free thinking that dynasties used to require is mostly gone. With more websites doing dynasty rankings, the rookie drafts are now just following consensus rankings and will soon ruin dynasties like it did re-drafts.

It's a shame really!

I wouldn't worry too much about predictability. It's pretty much always been that way in the 1st round. It was definitely more evident this year because of several factors, but it'll likely return to a more standard form as soon as next year.

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So, is this year an anomoly and it will correct itself in future years.....or has the free-thinking appeal of Dynasties quickly becoming a lost art?

 

[Romulan]

Doesnt sound like Dynasty is the problem. People have more info available to them now and they choose to use it.

 

[offdee]

Doesnt sound like Dynasty is the problem. People have more info available to them now and they choose to use it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But, that's the entire issue at hand.It used to be, in the not so distant past, that Dynasties weren't the norm and because there wasn't any outside information available to them, people needed to think on their own when making rankings, decisions, etc. To most, this was the major appeal of Dynasty Leagues.

 

[LHUCKS]

Doesnt sound like Dynasty is the problem. People have more info available to them now and they choose to use it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But, that's the entire issue at hand.It used to be, in the not so distant past, that Dynasties weren't the norm and because there wasn't any outside information available to them, people needed to think on their own when making rankings, decisions, etc. To most, this was the major appeal of Dynasty Leagues.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you can cut up these "outside source" rankings if you're a shark...dynasty or redraft.

 

[msommer]

Auction leagues are the way to go

 

[Orgazmo]

But, that's the entire issue at hand.

It used to be, in the not so distant past, that Dynasties weren't the norm and because there wasn't any outside information available to them, people needed to think on their own when making rankings, decisions, etc.  To most, this was the major appeal of Dynasty Leagues.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You might consider drafting prior to the NFL draft if you want some intrigue.

 

[offdee]

So, is this year an anomoly and it will correct itself in future years.....or has the free-thinking appeal of Dynasties quickly becoming a lost art?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

To answer my own question, I personally believe it's a little bit of both.I definitely think this year is out of the norm, and I think most of it has to do with the WR class. Very down year for the rookie WR's, and one can argue all day about how talented the top guys are, but the reality of it was that only one was drafted in the first round and with one of the very final picks. In year's past when WR's were chosen was usually the mystery surrounding rookie drafts and usually was the factor that broke up the consensus amongst most drafts. So, without that factor they became very predictable this year.

But, I also believe that with so much information becoming available for Dynasty Leagues it is starting to ruin the appeal a bit. Many falling in line with consensus rankings and going on the public's "perceived value" rather than "personal value" and it's very hard to get away from that sometimes.

 

[offdee]

I also do believe that the 2nd round and after of rookie drafts is where most will start to see differences.

This year there is a pretty clear-cut top 13 or so guys and after that people's views on prospects seem to be all over the board.

So, even though the first rounds seem to be very predictable I'm guessing 2nd rounds and after will have some mystery and intrigue.

 

[datonn]

offdee,

If you are in a talented, competitive league, then rounds 1-2 likely SHOULD be predictable/mundane! Where things get interesting are the middle of round 2 through round 6 (or later).....as that is where a LOT less info and "consensus" exists on the top players in the rookie pool.

I guess it also depends upon how many teams are in your league too. If it is an 8-10 teamer, your top 6-8 picks should practically be no-brainers this year! If it is a 12-16+ team league, the tail-end of the first round and beginning of the second round should offer a few surprises...depending upon whether you include IDP and your league's particular scoring system.

I don't know.....in most of the leagues I play in, you don't really "help" yourself in Round One....but you can DEFINITELY hurt yourself if you make a "reach" or some stupid selection(s)! My favorite leagues are dynasty with a salary cap and auction for free agents, but any "dynasty" is about ten-times more entertaining to me than re-draft at this point!

 

[EBF]

I'm not worried by the increased availability of information. I feel like most dynasty rankings posted around the web are laughably bad. I also think there's still a lot of room for innovative thinking.

I'm presently putting the finishing touches on a 26 round draft for a 12 team dynasty startup comprised almost entirely of FBGs. It's been very interesting to see how the different owners have chosen to craft their teams. People are clearly adopting some vastly different strategies.

I think that's the real beauty of the dynasty format. Two people can look at the exact same player and see two completely different things. When I look at Shaun Alexander, I see an overvalued RB whose best years are likely behind him. Other people look at him and see a cornerstone that they can build a winning team around.

In redraft leagues, you can do reasonably well by blindly following rankings that are mostly based on last year's performance. This strategy is a little more dangerous in dynasty leagues. The need to project a player's worth for several seasons (as opposed to just one) complicates matters and adds a great deal of uncertainty. It's this added uncertainty that allows skilled players to gradually separate themselves from the pack.

The increased availability of information hasn't done anything to eliminate this uncertainty. What will become of Chris Perry? Will Santonio Holmes eventually become a stud in the NFL? Will Ben Roethlisberger ever throw enough to be worth an early pick? Will Mark Clayton become another Derrick Mason? How many good years does TO have left?

Everyone has guesses to these questions, but no one has answers. No cheat sheet can predict the future. You have to do it yourself. The better you do, the better your teams will do.

 

[offdee]

offdee,

If you are in a talented, competitive league, then rounds 1-2 likely SHOULD be predictable/mundane!  Where things...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the thoughts datonn.Just to be clear to all, this thread isn't about me personally and the Dynasty league that I'm in. I have no complaints or concerns about MY league as I know we're ahead of the curve. (all top-notch members with the knowledge and savvy to rival anybody in this hobby)

This thread was just meant to be a general discussion about the topic itself in regards to ALL Dynasty leagues.

 

[Slinger]

Blame Bloom.

 

[datonn]

Thanks for the thoughts datonn.Just to be clear to all, this thread isn't about me personally and the Dynasty league that I'm in.  I have no complaints or concerns about MY league as I know we're ahead of the curve. (all top-notch members with the knowledge and savvy to rival anybody in this hobby)This thread was just meant to be a general discussion about the topic itself in regards to ALL Dynasty leagues.

If it were the first year of a dynasty league, it'd be an entirely different story! However, once you're into the "rookie drafts" portion of the league's activities, I'm not sure that Round One will EVER be filled with surprises. If it is, it's usually guys making dumb-*** selections.....which doesn't happen very often when you've got all the owners in a league knowing what they are doing.I doubt we'll ever see the day when everyone's got "consensus" rankings past 10-15 picks into a rookie draft though....unless they're ALL using Bloom as their guide.

 

[cstu]

So, is this year an anomoly and it will correct itself in future years.....or has the free-thinking appeal of Dynasties quickly becoming a lost art?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

To answer my own question, I personally believe it's a little bit of both.I definitely think this year is out of the norm, and I think most of it has to do with the WR class. Very down year for the rookie WR's, and one can argue all day about how talented the top guys are, but the reality of it was that only one was drafted in the first round and with one of the very final picks. In year's past when WR's were chosen was usually the mystery surrounding rookie drafts and usually was the factor that broke up the consensus amongst most drafts. So, without that factor they became very predictable this year.

But, I also believe that with so much information becoming available for Dynasty Leagues it is starting to ruin the appeal a bit. Many falling in line with consensus rankings and going on the public's "perceived value" rather than "personal value" and it's very hard to get away from that sometimes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sounds like the people in your league are the problem, not dynasty drafts. If you are in a league with a bunch of people who follow cheatsheets without thinking about how they are building their team then of course it's going to be boring.

 

[cstu]

I'm not worried by the increased availability of information. I feel like most dynasty rankings posted around the web are laughably bad. I also think there's still a lot of room for innovative thinking.

I'm presently putting the finishing touches on a 26 round draft for a 12 team dynasty startup comprised almost entirely of FBGs. It's been very interesting to see how the different owners have chosen to craft their teams. People are clearly adopting some vastly different strategies.

I think that's the real beauty of the dynasty format. Two people can look at the exact same player and see two completely different things. When I look at Shaun Alexander, I see an overvalued RB whose best years are likely behind him. Other people look at him and see a cornerstone that they can build a winning team around.

In redraft leagues, you can do reasonably well by blindly following rankings that are mostly based on last year's performance. This strategy is a little more dangerous in dynasty leagues. The need to project a player's worth for several seasons (as opposed to just one) complicates matters and adds a great deal of uncertainty. It's this added uncertainty that allows skilled players to gradually separate themselves from the pack.

The increased availability of information hasn't done anything to eliminate this uncertainty. What will become of Chris Perry? Will Santonio Holmes eventually become a stud in the NFL? Will Ben Roethlisberger ever throw enough to be worth an early pick? Will Mark Clayton become another Derrick Mason? How many good years does TO have left?

Everyone has guesses to these questions, but no one has answers. No cheat sheet can predict the future. You have to do it yourself. The better you do, the better your teams will do.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[Biabreakable]

Drafting earlier in a rookie draft can add more suprise than drafts that happen later because anyone can map ADP.

 

[trader jake]

the draft isn't the fun of dynasty leagues

the initial draft of a dynasty league is (basically) a slanted re-draft. the fun of dynasty leagues is the haves/have nots trading and the constant moves either playing for this year or for next

...and if bloom keeps pimping vernon davis at the rate he is, his dynasty rankings might not influence as many FBG's

 

[EBF]

Blame Bloom.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have a lot of respect for Bloom, but you're helping to prove my point. The dynasty rankings provided by him and other posters are useful, but they don't do the work for you. Everyone knows that DeAngelo Williams, Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, Reggie Bush, and Joseph Addai are some of the top backs available this year. So what? No one knows how they're actually going to do. You have to guess. Whoever makes the best guesse the most consistently will have the most success in the long run.

One thing I can guarantee you is that no one's rankings are going to give you the answer. Three years from now, it's all going to seem like comedy. Crazy things will happen. Top picks will bust. Low picks will boom. We'll all be wondering why we had Joseph Addai ranked ahead of Willie Reid. This is what happens every year. Most expert rankings don't end up looking very professional against the test of time.

 

[MU Seminole]

A few points:

First, even the rankings now available are not followed as closely for dynasty as for redraft. I can want to win this year and look at the same list as you, who are happy to tank for a year or two with 'potential' players. I still see a ton of subjectivity in dynasty drafts. Therefore, they don't follow consensus rankings to the extent of redraft.

Second, I disagree about the importance of the initial draft. I think it is the backbone of the team. Yes, there is trading, free agency and yearly rookie drafts, but the first draft determines how active one must be in the other aspects.

 

[coolnerd]

I'm not worried by the increased availability of information. I feel like most dynasty rankings posted around the web are laughably bad. I also think there's still a lot of room for innovative thinking.

I'm presently putting the finishing touches on a 26 round draft for a 12 team dynasty startup comprised almost entirely of FBGs. It's been very interesting to see how the different owners have chosen to craft their teams. People are clearly adopting some vastly different strategies.

I think that's the real beauty of the dynasty format. Two people can look at the exact same player and see two completely different things. When I look at Shaun Alexander, I see an overvalued RB whose best years are likely behind him. Other people look at him and see a cornerstone that they can build a winning team around.

In redraft leagues, you can do reasonably well by blindly following rankings that are mostly based on last year's performance. This strategy is a little more dangerous in dynasty leagues. The need to project a player's worth for several seasons (as opposed to just one) complicates matters and adds a great deal of uncertainty. It's this added uncertainty that allows skilled players to gradually separate themselves from the pack.

The increased availability of information hasn't done anything to eliminate this uncertainty. What will become of Chris Perry? Will Santonio Holmes eventually become a stud in the NFL? Will Ben Roethlisberger ever throw enough to be worth an early pick? Will Mark Clayton become another Derrick Mason? How many good years does TO have left?

Everyone has guesses to these questions, but no one has answers. No cheat sheet can predict the future. You have to do it yourself. The better you do, the better your teams will do.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am in the league that EBF is referring to and there were 12 different appraoches to the draft. EBF and I probably could not have put together more different squads. I have one rookie who I took at the very end of the draft and his roster is loaded with rookies. I would argue most teams fall somewhere in-between our extremes, but are far from copycats of each other.

 

[offdee]

  I am in the league that EBF is referring to and there were 12 different appraoches to the draft.  EBF and I probably could not have put together more different squads. I have one rookie who I took at the very end of the draft and his roster is loaded with rookies.  I would argue most teams fall somewhere in-between our extremes, but are far from copycats of each other.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Couldn't agree more...the initial veteran draft and strategy of "setting up" your team will always have it's differences in opinions and strategies which is excellent to see that unveiled over time.I guess the initial thoughts were geared more towards once all of that is in place, and talking strictly rookie drafts.

I tend to agree with others who have said that in general the 1st rounds of rookie drafts will be pretty by the book (generally speaking) and the later rounds are where you'll start to see major differences in opinions.

 

[coolnerd]

  I am in the league that EBF is referring to and there were 12 different appraoches to the draft.  EBF and I probably could not have put together more different squads. I have one rookie who I took at the very end of the draft and his roster is loaded with rookies.  I would argue most teams fall somewhere in-between our extremes, but are far from copycats of each other.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Couldn't agree more...the initial veteran draft and strategy of "setting up" your team will always have it's differences in opinions and strategies which is excellent to see that unveiled over time.I guess the initial thoughts were geared more towards once all of that is in place, and talking strictly rookie drafts.

I tend to agree with others who have said that in general the 1st rounds of rookie drafts will be pretty by the book (generally speaking) and the later rounds are where you'll start to see major differences in opinions.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I could see what you are talking about with rookie only drafts. My argument is that there is really a limited pool with only a handful of seemingly obvious talent. Even if I want to veer from the norm in the first round of the rookie draft, there just is not a reason to. Example if I like Greg Jennings, why reach for him? Even if I think he wil be the best WR out this class based on talent and situation, you are more likely to see him drop to the third round than reached for even late in the first.

 

[offdee]

Even if I want to veer from the norm in the first round of the rookie draft, there just is not a reason to.  Example if I like Greg Jennings, why reach for him?  Even if I think he wil be the best WR out this class based on talent and situation, you are more likely to see him drop to the third round than reached for even late in the first.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But, is this the crux of the whole discussion?5 years ago one might've taken Greg Jennings in the 1st round because they truly believed he was the best WR available and there wasn't any information or outside sources with Dynasty rankings telling you and everyone else what is perceived by most as "correct value".

Now, with so many outside sources and opinions on the situation everyone tends to fall in line with this thought process (whether they want to or not). Now the guy that 5 years ago would've taken Greg Jennings in the 1st round because of his personal rankings now trades down or waits later to take him because he now knows (thru outside sources/rankings) that he'll last that long.

This is the whole basis of this discussion....5 years ago taking Greg Jennings in the first round might've been considered by some the savvy move because nobody was being told any different. Now taking Greg Jennings in the first round would just be considered a bad pick....not because he's a bad player, but because all of the outside sources are telling you and the rest of your league that you could've gotten him later in the draft. Thus, predictability happens.

 

[Rovers]

This is a very wierd thread. So, you want to be in a league where the owners are stupid? Or shooting in the dark? What is exactly, is the complaint? On one hand, you complain that people follow rankings, and then talk about how difficult it is in predicting which rookies will suceed?

Actaully, I happen to agree, when it comes to offense only leagues. Consensus rankings are a crutch that make it easier, if not a no brain excersise. That is why I am in IDP leagues that offer agressive defensive scoring.... making stud LB's worth what stud RB's are. DE's can hold their own against average WR's. Then, some digging is required.

In my dynasty leagues, Hawk will last no further than 6... maybe seven. Zealot scoring pushes a Hawk into the second round. That is a mistake, IMO.

Now, in my local..... a traditional redraft offense only league...... I'm only in it because it's local, with buds..... but it is dammed boring otherwise.

 

[Couch Potato]

If you think about it, what we're really talking about here is market efficiency. If I'm a collector of some obscure or rare collectible where availability of information is thin as to publicly perceived value, there will be much more fluctuation in price than if I'm a collector of shares in a Fortune 500 stock.

What is happening in fantasy football - first in redraft and now in dynasty - is that there is more and more evidence of a player's publicly perceived value based on the proliferation of mock and real drafts, staff and message board rankings, public discussion of players and trades involving those players, etc. Where once the information and opinions available might have been limited to a very small circle, we now have the advantage of the distillation of thousands of people's views of perceived value of players. The market gets more efficient and perceived value becomes better defined.

I keep saying perceived value because the public often is wrong; none of us can truly know the future, and the majority is often wrong. What becomes refined is the public's 'best guess.' Even with a heavily traded stock, the price is still only a best guess as to its real value. Whether that price is right or wrong doesn't matter; it's still the price if I want to deal in it. I buy something because I think it will go up, and I sell it because I think it will go down. If the current market price of a Fortune 500 stock is $40 and I think it is going to be worth $60, I'm still going to buy it at $40 and not pay $55 for it. This is where we are, more and more, with fantasy football. I might think Player X is going to be the next Tomlinson, but I have evidence based on all the information now available that I can get Player X in round 3 and not have to invest the pick 1.1 or 1.2 that I would if I wanted Tomlinson. Until the public perception of Player X's value agrees with my own perception, I can get him cheaply relative to my own perceived value of him.

So, while rookie and initial veteran dynasty drafts will inevitably become more and more by the book, even reinforced by those who don't believe 'the book' but go along because they know they don't have to overpay for a player, there is still plenty of room to succeed by picking the right undervalued players at the right time.

 

[-OZ-]

If you want novelty or to be "different" join an arena FF league.

 

[Texasmouth]

The first three rounds are always going to go by script. Every team always ends up with three solid guys, it is what you do in the next five rounds that makes or breaks your season. The guy who won one of the leagues I am in won it because he made some solid picks in the fifth and later rounds. I think he had Moss, Westbrook and Lamont Jordan as his first three picks but he grabbed terry Glenn, Bulger, and Rackers and before Bulger got hurt, those three guys were carrying his team.

The availability of information has definately changed the draft, for the better I think, because now everyone is informed and there isn't some dunghole showing up at the draft trying to pick someone who isn't in the league or picking Micheal Vick with the #2 overall pick or something.

 

[The Duff Man]

Draft lists are laughable. You can look at 10 magazines and 10 different site and there will be few exceptions where someone ranks a player vastly differently than someone else.

It isn't a fantasy football phenomena, look at the NFL draft. Every mock draft had Justice going top 15. I guarantee there are some people out there who thought he would slide, but if every other mock draft has him going top 15 it takes guts to publish an article saying he'll slide out of the first round.

I have found success in going against the grain. Realize that rankings are just other people's opinions and might not be any better than your own. If you are drafting at #10 and the consensus #7 player is still on the board you don't HAVE to take him. Sometimes even educated owners will jump on him because of "value". Good owners will make their own decisions on whether he'll be a boom or bust and draft accordingly.

If you think he is a bust an even better option is to trade out of #10 to pick up value later in the draft, knowing the guy taking your pick will jump at the bust.

I finished in first place in my dynasty league in 2004. In the offseason I unloaded Culpepper and McGahee, two cornerstones of my franchise because I saw a huge drop coming for both of them. I replaced them with Hasselbeck and Dunn, and added a lot of strength in other areas. According to the preseason rankings I made really bad decisions that look really good now in hindsight.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I disagree with you on the free thinking part. 12 different minds & there's going to be some differences in opinion during the draft. Not everyone is going to sit there with ADP sheet and say "Oh look, he's supposed to go here....let me take him!" LT2/LJ are going to go near the top/for top dollar no matter what. It's only not free thinking if you allow others to dictate who and where you draft people.

I hate the ADP & VBD stuff people try to shove down your throat as far as dynasty leagues. If I want to reach for someone like say Matt Jones, I could care less where X amount of people are drafting him. Perhaps I've seen something I like you haven't?

 

[offdee]

I guess some are just missing the point of what I'm trying to get across, but I still appreciate everyone's feedback so far.

First, this is ONLY in regards to rookie drafts......I realize that there are different strategies, etc. of the initial veteran draft and that's all good, but this is looking at scenarios for mature leagues that are 4-5 years in and each team already has their own identity established.

Secondly, I'm not complaining or questioning anything in regards to how things work in my league or anybody else's league...obviously people are going to use resources if they are available and they'd be foolish to not use that to their advantage. Nothing wrong with that.

All I'm stating here is the simple fact that with all of the information available to Dynasty Leaguers now that predictability in ROOKIE DRAFTS is bound to happen....the appeal for many 5 or so years ago for Dynasty League's was that there wasn't really a whole lot of information available to people so many felt satisfaction in coming up with their own strategies, rankings, scouting reports, etc.. (yes, they can still do that, but to a much lesser degree because it's not necessary anymore with all the info available.)

So, my initial point of the thread was to find out if this bothered people that Dynasty Leagues are taking the road of Redrafts with excess information available..... or if that's just how it is and don't have any problems with it at all.

If you don't have any problem with it, and it is what it is....than just keep on keepin' on and continue as is.

But, if some do feel that the excess information is starting to put a dent into the appeal of Dynasty League's than what are some ways to counter that and stay ahead of the curve?

Some legit suggestions given in this thread so far...

- use Auction format

- incorporate IDP

- do Rookie drafts before the NFL draft happens

One quick comment a guy in our league had was this:

I think we need to start making any player in college available in our rookie drafts to stay ahead of the consensus curve that will soon ruin dynasties like it did re-drafts.

He said it in passing, but it's an idea that I became very intrigued by and brainstormed ways to incorporate that into a present or new Dynasty league. I realized how easy it would be to incorporate it and how much it would increase the challenges of rookie drafts and managing a team as well.

~ Each team is allowed 3 max. college players on their roster. (minimum amount so future draft picks still hold value, but enough per team that it affects the strategy of managing a squad. Do you hold onto a few college players that could eventually turn into nothing and take up roster space for veteran players that could be scoring points for you now? Or do you hold onto promising college players in hopes to eventually strike gold with them 2-3 years down the road?)

~ the college players drafted need to have at least 1 year of eligibility lost (so it doesn't turn into a High School recruiting thing and you are drafting and scouting players who have actually performed for at least one year on the College level)

I think it would be very interesting to see how guys would approach certain picks, strategies, etc.

For example, if these scenarios presented itself this year...

At 1.04 would one take Joseph Addai guaranteed going to the Colts and hope it pays dividends this year, or would he take RB-Marshawn Lynch (Cal) and sit on him for a year and hope to strike gold next year?

Who goes at the 1.07 pick this year....Matt Leinart or Brady Quinn?

Would the guy stashing away RB- Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma) be able to trade him straight up for the 1.01 pick for Reggie Bush?

Definitely changes things up, and wouldn't follow the cookie cutter thoughts and rankings of every other Dynasty league out there now.

 

[Keg]

I hate the ADP & VBD stuff people try to shove down your throat as far as dynasty leagues. If I want to reach for someone like say Matt Jones, I could care less where X amount of people are drafting him. Perhaps I've seen something I like you haven't?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

the buffalo bills guide to drafting

 

[thayman]

I guess some are just missing the point of what I'm trying to get across, but I still appreciate everyone's feedback so far.

First, this is ONLY in regards to rookie drafts......I realize that there are different strategies, etc. of the initial veteran draft and that's all good, but this is looking at scenarios for mature leagues that are 4-5 years in and each team already has their own identity established.

Secondly, I'm not complaining or questioning anything in regards to how things work in my league or anybody else's league...obviously people are going to use resources if they are available and they'd be foolish to not use that to their advantage.  Nothing wrong with that.

All I'm stating here is the simple fact that with all of the information available to Dynasty Leaguers now that predictability in ROOKIE DRAFTS is bound to happen....the appeal for many 5 or so years ago for Dynasty League's was that there wasn't really a whole lot of information available to people so many felt satisfaction in coming up with their own strategies, rankings, scouting reports, etc..  (yes, they can still do that, but to a much lesser degree because it's not necessary anymore with all the info available.)

So, my initial point of the thread was to find out if this bothered people that Dynasty Leagues are taking the road of Redrafts with excess information available..... or if that's just how it is and don't have any problems with it at all.

If you don't have any problem with it, and it is what it is....than just keep on keepin' on and continue as is.

But, if some do feel that the excess information is starting to put a dent into the appeal of Dynasty League's than what are some ways to counter that and stay ahead of the curve?

Some legit suggestions given in this thread so far...

- use Auction format

- incorporate IDP

- do Rookie drafts before the NFL draft happens

One quick comment a guy in our league had was this:

I think we need to start making any player in college available in our rookie drafts to stay ahead of the consensus curve that will soon ruin dynasties like it did re-drafts.

He said it in passing, but it's an idea that I became very intrigued by and brainstormed ways to incorporate that into a present or new Dynasty league.  I realized how easy it would be to incorporate it and how much it would increase the challenges of rookie drafts and managing a team as well.

~ Each team is allowed 3 max. college players on their roster. (minimum amount so future draft picks still hold value, but enough per team that it affects the strategy of managing a squad.  Do you hold onto a few college players that could eventually turn into nothing and take up roster space for veteran players that could be scoring points for you now?  Or do you hold onto promising college players in hopes to eventually strike gold with them 2-3 years down the road?)

~ the college players drafted need to have at least 1 year of eligibility lost (so it doesn't turn into a High School recruiting thing and you are drafting and scouting players who have actually performed for at least one year on the College level)

I think it would be very interesting to see how guys would approach certain picks, strategies, etc.

For example, if these scenarios presented itself this year...

At 1.04 would one take Joseph Addai guaranteed going to the Colts and hope it pays dividends this year, or would he take RB-Marshawn Lynch (Cal) and sit on him for a year and hope to strike gold next year?

Who goes at the 1.07 pick this year....Matt Leinart or Brady Quinn?

Would the guy stashing away RB- Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma) be able to trade him straight up for the 1.01 pick for Reggie Bush?

Definitely changes things up, and wouldn't follow the cookie cutter thoughts and rankings of every other Dynasty league out there now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not a bad idea if you want to change things up. What I think you are getting at is that information is out there a hell of alot more than it used to be. Due to the $$ that is generated by FF. Nothing you can really do about it, except make your league as deep as possible.

 

[coolnerd]

One quick comment a guy in our league had was this:

I think we need to start making any player in college available in our rookie drafts to stay ahead of the consensus curve that will soon ruin dynasties like it did re-drafts.

He said it in passing, but it's an idea that I became very intrigued by and brainstormed ways to incorporate that into a present or new Dynasty league.  I realized how easy it would be to incorporate it and how much it would increase the challenges of rookie drafts and managing a team as well.

~ Each team is allowed 3 max. college players on their roster. (minimum amount so future draft picks still hold value, but enough per team that it affects the strategy of managing a squad.  Do you hold onto a few college players that could eventually turn into nothing and take up roster space for veteran players that could be scoring points for you now?  Or do you hold onto promising college players in hopes to eventually strike gold with them 2-3 years down the road?)

~ the college players drafted need to have at least 1 year of eligibility lost (so it doesn't turn into a High School recruiting thing and you are drafting and scouting players who have actually performed for at least one year on the College level)

I think it would be very interesting to see how guys would approach certain picks, strategies, etc.

For example, if these scenarios presented itself this year...

At 1.04 would one take Joseph Addai guaranteed going to the Colts and hope it pays dividends this year, or would he take RB-Marshawn Lynch (Cal) and sit on him for a year and hope to strike gold next year?

Who goes at the 1.07 pick this year....Matt Leinart or Brady Quinn?

Would the guy stashing away RB- Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma) be able to trade him straight up for the 1.01 pick for Reggie Bush?

Definitely changes things up, and wouldn't follow the cookie cutter thoughts and rankings of every other Dynasty league out there now.

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Just to note: One my gazillion leagues does something similar. He is linkage to the ruleshttp://football6.myfantasyleague.com/2005/...ns?L=46941&O=26

 

[offdee]

Just to note: One my gazillion leagues does something similar.  He is linkage to the rules

http://football6.myfantasyleague.com/2005/...ns?L=46941&O=26

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thanks coolnerd...didn't read the entire rules, but what I'm getting from it is that you still have a separate NFL Rookie Draft, College Player Draft, etc. You'll still have the issues of each individual draft (and indiv. college taxi squad) of having it's own set of "perceived values".What I'm thinking is combining both college players and NFL rookies into one draft and there won't be one set of standards of whether the rookie or college player holds more value.....it will be up to the owner to decide what is best in their minds and for their team's makeup.

This also includes the college players on the active roster (not a separate taxi squad) so it is up to the owner to decide if taking up 0, 1, 2 or 3 roster spots with college players who won't see an NFL field for possibly 2+ years (if at all) is worth it to them or not.

For those that don't believe in risking spots on college players can choose to not have any college players on their squad if they want. But, then you will also have those owners who feel they can spot talent and it is worth it to them to hold onto a College Sophomore and see how it pans out in a few years. The idea is keeping the "perceived values" of players up to the individual owners that will skew all of the outside sources telling you rankings, etc.

I have a hard time believing you'll find rankings or discussions about who holds more PRESENT value in a Dynasty league..

- Matt Leinart or Brady Quinn

- Joseph Addai or Marshawn Lynch

- etc, etc, etc.

 

[coolnerd]

Just to note: One my gazillion leagues does something similar.  He is linkage to the rules

http://football6.myfantasyleague.com/2005/...ns?L=46941&O=26

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thanks coolnerd...didn't read the entire rules, but what I'm getting from it is that you still have a separate NFL Rookie Draft, College Player Draft, etc. You'll still have the issues of each individual draft (and indiv. college taxi squad) of having it's own set of "perceived values".What I'm thinking is combining both college players and NFL rookies into one draft and there won't be one set of standards of whether the rookie or college player holds more value.....it will be up to the owner to decide what is best in their minds and for their team's makeup.

This also includes the college players on the active roster (not a separate taxi squad) so it is up to the owner to decide if taking up 0, 1, 2 or 3 roster spots with college players who won't see an NFL field for possibly 2+ years (if at all) is worth it to them or not.

For those that don't believe in risking spots on college players can choose to not have any college players on their squad if they want. But, then you will also have those owners who feel they can spot talent and it is worth it to them to hold onto a College Sophomore and see how it pans out in a few years. The idea is keeping the "perceived values" of players up to the individual owners that will skew all of the outside sources telling you rankings, etc.

I have a hard time believing you'll find rankings or discussions about who holds more PRESENT value in a Dynasty league..

- Matt Leinart or Brady Quinn

- Joseph Addai or Marshawn Lynch

- etc, etc, etc.

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We a college draft, for college eligible players and a pro-supplementatl draft which includes rookies who are not on someone's college squad and available pro FAs. I don't have a current link, but I know that they are a handful of leagues set-up where the college players are not a part of a separate roster, but included in the regular roster as you are suggesting.

 

[offdee]

I don't have a current link, but I know that they are a handful of leagues set-up where the college players are not a part of a separate roster, but included in the regular roster as you are suggesting.

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If these leagues are out there I'd be very curious to see what some of these rookie drafts look like (both present and past) with both NFL rookies and College players combined.

 

[offdee]

I don't have a current link, but I know that they are a handful of leagues set-up where the college players are not a part of a separate roster, but included in the regular roster as you are suggesting.

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If these leagues are out there I'd be very curious to see what some of these rookie drafts look like (both present and past) with both NFL rookies and College players combined.
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One good example I can come up with (and I'm sure there are tons more) that I bet would've happened.I remember 2 years ago (?) Miami Hurricane WR- Ryan Moore was being considered the next big thing (Andre Johnson II)...had a great Freshman season and showed a lot of promise.

I'd imagine if a draft like this was setup that year, many would've drafted him right around or ahead of guys like Lee Evans or Michael Clayton (then NFL rookies)

In the meantime, Ryan Moore has fallen off as a pro prospect and has shown immaturity and bad hands....now 2 years later you'd have somebody using a late 1st/early 2nd round on a college WR with potential but eventually fizzled into mediocrity where they could've used that pick on a good young WR with a lot of NFL potential like Lee Evans that was helping them actually win fantasy games the past 2 years.

That would be the pros and cons needed to weigh out when making these types of decisions, and there's nothing out there telling you or anybody else if they believe that would be the correct pick or not. It would be solely the feelings of the owner himself which is how Dynasty League rookie drafts essentially were 5+ years ago when they weren't mainstream.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Offdee- Typically the guys #####ing about how boring it is have no picks. Look at who was complaining the most. Also, it wasn't that prdictable. No one had a sure read on the picks 2-4. You knew who were going in that range, but didn't know where. We were locked on Young at 5 far before most. Many were thinking he would be a late first dynasty pick in January. Many thought we would take Davis as opposed to Leinart. Cutler at 9 made sense since Scott has Plummer. I thought it was pleasant to see wr's go before tier 2 rb's, but that wouldn't have happened if Coyle didn't trade out. Those guys weren't locks either.

What makes our dynasty draft wacky is Coyle with multiple picks. That is fact.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

If you think about it, what we're really talking about here is market efficiency.  If I'm a collector of some obscure or rare collectible where availability of information is thin as to publicly perceived value, there will be much more fluctuation in price than if I'm a collector of shares in a Fortune 500 stock. 

What is happening in fantasy football - first in redraft and now in dynasty - is that there is more and more evidence of a player's publicly perceived value based on the proliferation of mock and real drafts, staff and message board rankings, public discussion of players and trades involving those players, etc.  Where once the information and opinions available might have been limited to a very small circle, we now have the advantage of the distillation of thousands of people's views of perceived value of players.  The market gets more efficient and perceived value becomes better defined. 

I keep saying perceived value because the public often is wrong; none of us can truly know the future, and the majority is often wrong.  What becomes refined is the public's 'best guess.'  Even with a heavily traded stock, the price is still only a best guess as to its real value.  Whether that price is right or wrong doesn't matter; it's still the price if I want to deal in it.  I buy something because I think it will go up, and I sell it because I think it will go down.  If the current market price of a Fortune 500 stock is $40 and I think it is going to be worth $60, I'm still going to buy it at $40 and not pay $55 for it.  This is where we are, more and more, with fantasy football.  I might think Player X is going to be the next Tomlinson, but I have evidence based on all the information now available that I can get Player X in round 3 and not have to invest the pick 1.1 or 1.2 that I would if I wanted Tomlinson.  Until the public perception of Player X's value agrees with my own perception, I can get him cheaply relative to my own perceived value of him.

So, while rookie and initial veteran dynasty drafts will inevitably become more and more by the book, even reinforced by those who don't believe 'the book' but go along because they know they don't have to overpay for a player, there is still plenty of room to succeed by picking the right undervalued players at the right time.

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Very