Luck likely NFL's top pick if he declares
By Rob Rang
NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst
Dec. 7, 2010
NFLDraftScout.com has a longstanding policy of not ranking underclassmen until they have officially been granted eligibility by the NFL.
However, that does not preclude me from listing my own Top 32 prospects.
This list isn't intended to predict which underclassmen will give up their collegiate eligibility for a chance at the 2011 NFL Draft. Nor is it designed to predict which prospects should consider the jump.
In fact, with a possible lockout looming, it could be more important than ever for underclassmen to carefully consider their options -- beginning with an evaluation from the NFL Advisory Committee -- before gambling with their future.
So, take this article as it is intended -- a list of the 32 best pro prospects, regardless of their class, as the 2010 college football season rumbles to the finish line.
1. QB Andrew Luck, Stanford: The redshirt sophomore has the physical tools that merit No. 1 overall consideration, but it will be his Manning-like cognitive skills that will someday send him to the Pro Bowl.
2. CB Patrick Peterson, LSU: There has never been a cornerback selected higher than No. 3 overall (most recently, Shawn Springs to Seattle in 1993). If Peterson leaves early, he could go as high as No. 2.
3. WR AJ Green, Georgia: Green's size, straight-line speed and body control has been compared by some scouts to a young Randy Moss. The junior has perennial Pro Bowl-caliber talent.
4. DT Nick Fairley, Auburn: Entering the season he was barely a blip on scouts' radar. He's been as dominant and surprising as his teammate Cam Newton -- and would be a higher pick if the draft were held today.
5. DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson: Among the most highly touted prep prospects in the country, all Bowers has done is consistently improve, winning the ACC Defensive Player of the Year as a junior with an FBS-leading 15.5 sacks and 25 tackles for loss.
6. CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska: Count me among those who questioned how well Amukamara would fare without Ndamukong Suh terrorizing quarterbacks. Considering he's my top-rated senior prospect and the Big 12 coaches' Defensive Player of the Year, he's more than answered his doubters.
7. DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina: Don't let the yearlong suspension fool you: NFL scouts still consider Quinn a potential top-10 talent. Think Julius Peppers, but with a more consistent motor.
8. OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M: Explosive rushing the passer and agile enough to break down in space to make the open-field tackle, Miller is drawing the praise from scouts of 4-3 and 3-4 teams alike.
9. QB Cam Newton, Auburn: With Michael Vick terrorizing the NFL, Newton's unique combination of running and passing talent will certainly garner a first-round pick. Scouts question whether he can make the transition from the spread to a pro-style offense, but any concerns about his mental toughness have been answered with his poise throughout the NCAA investigation.
10. OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA: At 6-4, 255, Ayers possesses a combination of size and athletic ability virtually unmatched in college football.
11. RB Trent Richardson, Alabama: He might be Mark Ingram's backup at Alabama, but a more impressive size/speed combination should ultimately make this true sophomore a higher drafted prospect.
12. ILB Luke Kuechly, Boston College: Kuechly emerged as an immediate impact defender with Mark Herzlich sidelined in 2009, earning first-team All-ACC honors as a true freshman. He's been even better this season with Herzlich back, once again earning all-conference accolades and leading the country in solo (171) and total tackles (102) as a true sophomore.
13. OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State: One of the few senior offensive tackles blessed with the athleticism to remain on the left side in the NFL, Sherrod was honored four times this year as the SEC's Offensive Lineman of the Week.
14. RB Mark Ingram, Alabama: Should the 2009 Heisman winner elect to enter the draft, Ingram will unquestionably rate as 2011's top running back prospect. Even though, in my opinion, he rates second on his own team.
15. OT Nate Solder, Colorado: Like Derek Sherrod, Solder has the athleticism to remain on the blind side in the pros -- quite a statement considering his skyscraper (6-8, 315-pound) frame.
16. WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State: A virtual shoo-in for the 2010 Biletnikof Award as the nation's top receiver despite only being a redshirt sophomore, Blackmon's success against top competition has the attention of scouts.
17. OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin: Carimi struggled with leverage early this season, but his improved technique is a prime reason why Wisconsin scored 40-plus points in five games this season and 70 or more three times.
18. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina: In over 10 years of professional scouting I've only seen a few true freshmen physically capable of making the jump to the NFL. Lattimore, with good balance, vision and the forward lean to finish his runs, is one of them.
19. CB Brandon Harris, Miami (Fla.): A two-time All-ACC selection despite this being only his junior season, Harris' silky smooth coverage has earned comparisons to some of the great 'Cane corners of the past.
20. DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa: Consistently double-teamed this season, Clayborn hasn't had the monster campaign some projected, but his size, strength and technique make him a surefire first-round pick.
21. DE Cameron Jordan, California: Jordan's position and scheme versatility make him one of the country's best defensive linemen -- even if few outside of the Pac-10 know his name.
22. DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama: Primarily a defensive end for the Tide, Dareus fits best inside at the pro level. While he's stout at the point of attack, scouts would like to see more splashy plays to warrant the hype the junior has received throughout his career.
23. DE Aldon Smith, Missouri: If not for a broken leg that cost him three games early this season, the redshirt sophomore Smith might be higher on the list. Smith (6-5, 258) is one of the few defensive ends with the size and burst off the edge to project as a weak-side pass rusher.
24. OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College: The four-year starter has gained strength and toughness over his career and still possesses the athleticism to play left tackle.
25. DE JJ Watts, Wisconsin: In a year of breakout performances, few have been more unexpected than that of this former Central Michigan player. At 6-6, 292, the junior is a prototypical 3-4 defensive end in the NFL.
26. WR Julio Jones, Alabama: Jones lacks the straight-line speed to warrant a high first-round selection, but his size and physicality make him more pro-ready than most collegiate wideouts. With more consistent hands, the junior would be ranked higher.
27. DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue: Kerrigan might lack the athleticism to wow in workouts, but his technique and motor arguably make him as safe a prospect as any senior in the country.
28. C Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State: The nephew of former Penn State and Oakland Raider standout Steve, this Wisniewski plays with similar physicality and is more polished and versatile than his famous uncle.
29. DT Drake Nevis, LSU: Nevis has been dominant this season, but his lack of size (6-2, 285) is a considerable concern to scouts. Many view him as a rotational player unworthy of a first-round selection.
30. WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina: At an estimated 6-4, 232 pounds, Jeffery reminds me a great deal of former USC standout and current Seattle Seahawks starter Mike Williams. Jeffery possesses good build-up speed, but to be successful in the NFL, the All-SEC pick must hone his skills as a route runner, as production in Steve Spurrier's offense has yet to translate into immediate success at the professional level.
31. DE/OLB Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma: Capable of pressuring the quarterback from the three-point stance or standing up, he can also drop back into coverage. The versatile defender could wind up as Oklahoma's 13th first-round pick since 2000.
32. DL Cameron Heyward, Ohio State: With only 2.5 sacks on the year, the late Ironhead Heyward's son isn't a candidate to remain outside in the 4-3, but his strength and length as a 3-4 end could still result in a first-round selection.
Disagree with my Top 32? Here's my next 5
As you can imagine, I spent a great deal of time poring over tape and conversing with scouts before releasing my Top 32 Pro Prospects regardless of their draft class.
Some of who may be wondering why there is no Jake Locker (Washington QB) or Michael Floyd (Notre Dame WR) or Janoris Jenkins (Florida CB) on the list. Did I forget them or simply rank others ahead of them?
The quick answer is that I considered everyone but there were some tough cuts to the list. Here are the next 5 players that just missed out. Some were even among my original Top 32 but were late cuts due to questions about their size or readiness for the pros.
33. ILB Vontaze Burfict, Arizona State: Burfict, only a true sophomore, just missed out on my original Top 32 article. Fans across the country may not know him or only know him due to his penchant for picking up personal fouls at the worst possible times, but in my opinion Dennis Erickson has the most explosive inside linebacker in the country and a future 1st round pick.
34. OT Tyron Smith, Southern Cal: Considering that all 24 of his career starts have come at right tackle and that his lanky frame (6-5, 285) and quick feet make him better suited on the left side, I am not among those who feel Smith should leave after this, his junior season. There is no denying Smith's upside, however, which is why I was included him in my latest projection of the 2011 first round.
35. OG Rodney Hudson, Florida State: The Seminoles' senior left guard - and my choice for the 2010 Outland Trophy - is among the better guard prospects I've scouted due to extraordinary balance and footwork. The problem is, at only 6-2, 284 pounds, he's so much smaller than most he's going to struggle against the behemoth DTs in the NFL. If correctly placed in a zone-blocking scheme, however, I have no doubt his agility will make up for it.
36. RB Michael Dyer, Auburn: South Carolina true freshman Marcus Lattimore made my Top 32, but Dyer, also in the class of 2014, isn't far behind. While I love Lattimore's physicality, Dyer could ultimately emerge as the better pro prospect because his agility and compact frame make him less likely to absorb the same punishment as the Gamecocks' star. His stats (950 rushing yards, 5 TDs) don't do him justice. This kid is a future superstar.
37. DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State : Paea was on my original list, but the 2010 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year slipped amid concerns about his size (6-1, 312) and ability to pressure the passer. I love his strength inside and feel he can make an immediate impact in the pros. Considering he only played one season of football in high school, there is still a lot of upside here.
Should be one of the deepest WR classes in years.
