[DYNASTY] 2011 Top 20 Rookies (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Will you be updating this list prior to the draft EBF?

Possibly. I might wait until after the draft or after some of my rookie drafts. There won't be too many radical changes, but there have definitely been some risers and fallers.

 

[EBF]

If anyone cares, I probably don't have the time or will to update this list before the draft.

However, there has been some significant movement since I made this list. I have some new thoughts on players that I'll be happy to share after I'm done with most of my rookie drafts this weekend. I think the top of the draft is weak, but there are some gems out there that could be available for cheap.

 

[Rodeojones]

If anyone cares, I probably don't have the time or will to update this list before the draft. However, there has been some significant movement since I made this list. I have some new thoughts on players that I'll be happy to share after I'm done with most of my rookie drafts this weekend. I think the top of the draft is weak, but there are some gems out there that could be available for cheap.

Looking forward to it.

 

[DexterDew]

If anyone cares, I probably don't have the time or will to update this list before the draft. However, there has been some significant movement since I made this list. I have some new thoughts on players that I'll be happy to share after I'm done with most of my rookie drafts this weekend. I think the top of the draft is weak, but there are some gems out there that could be available for cheap.

Very curious to hear your opinion... hopefully by Monday

 

[EBF]

Quick thoughts on the first day:

- The QBs went a lot higher than I expected. I think this has less to do with their talent and more to do with the desperation of certain teams. The NFL is very much a QB league. Teams will reach to try to fill that hole. My take on this group is that Newton is the best FF pick because of his upside. Gabbert seems like he could be a Flacco type in a best case scenario, so he might be worth a sniff in the late 1st/early 2nd if you don't like the other options on the board. I think Locker is likely to bust. I put Ponder in the same boat as Gabbert. Maybe he can be decent, but he's not a guy that I want to spend a first round rookie pick on. Overall I'd probably recommend letting your leaguemates gamble on the QBs this year. There's no one here that looks like a surefire top 10 franchise QB. Luck smokes any of these guys.

- Wednesday night I went back and watched highlights of all the top 15 WRs. The three guys that made my first tier were...Green, Jones, and Baldwin. No surprises there. People might question the Baldwin pick. I know he lacks sheer explosiveness and comes saddled with some character issues, but talent-wise he's worth what Kansas City paid for him. He's big and smooth. Certainly a cut above any of the other WR prospects who were left on the board. Now that he has been given the first round seal of approval by an NFL scouting department, I'd feel better about the 1.04 spot in rookie drafts. If you're in that spot I think you take whoever drops out of Ingram/Green/Jones/Baldwin. That's probably going to be Baldwin.

- 1.01-1.03 is interesting territory. I have to admit that I'm just not that sold on either of this year's top WR prospects. It's not that they're bad players, but they do seem overrated. I rated Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas higher than either of these guys. Green lacks strength, lateral quickness, and sheer deep speed. Jones is a better athlete, but prone to inconsistency. Perhaps a little bit of Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams. It's hard to say who I prefer. Green is better at catching the ball. Jones will probably have an easier time getting open. I think you can pretty much flip a coin here.

- The 1.01 is looking like Ingram to me. I just think his floor is higher than that of Green or Jones. In a worst case scenario I think he'll be a Cedric Benson type of back in the NFL. In a best case scenario I could see something along the lines of Frank Gore with less impact in the receiving game. His combine numbers were disappointing, but on the field he looks like the real deal. The situation in New Orleans will sort itself out eventually.

 

[shader]

I might put Dez ahead of Green and Jones, but no way I put Thomas ahead of both, and it doesn't look like the NFL scouts disagreed, as they were both picked in the top 6.

I think Julio gets dinged for inconsistency because he was inconsistent in his 2nd season. But he turned it on in his Junior year and was flat out unstoppable.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Now that he has been given the first round seal of approval by an NFL scouting department, I'd feel better about the 1.04 spot in rookie drafts. If you're in that spot I think you take whoever drops out of Ingram/Green/Jones/Baldwin. That's probably going to be Baldwin.

Even now that Baldwin is a pedigree WR, there are so many prime landing spots for RBs (STL, DAL, NE) I don't see how he stays at 1.4 when more guys come off the board tonight. If another WR like Little or Hankerson lands in STL in Rd 2, it'd be easy to take them over Baldwin too. I don't trust KCC or Todd Haley to make smart decisions, so I'm not going to put too much weight in how they valued Baldwin.

 

[EBF]

Now that he has been given the first round seal of approval by an NFL scouting department, I'd feel better about the 1.04 spot in rookie drafts. If you're in that spot I think you take whoever drops out of Ingram/Green/Jones/Baldwin. That's probably going to be Baldwin.

Even now that Baldwin is a pedigree WR, there are so many prime landing spots for RBs (STL, DAL, NE) I don't see how he stays at 1.4 when more guys come off the board tonight. If another WR like Little or Hankerson lands in STL in Rd 2, it'd be easy to take them over Baldwin too.

If you think Hankerson and Little are close to Baldwin in talent (I don't). No remaining WR has a chance to pass him on my board. Teams will reach for someone like Leshoure, Thomas, or Williams in the top 4 if one or more of those guys lands in a good spot. And you might end up getting some pretty good production out of them. Purely in terms of BPA, I don't see any of them topping Baldwin though.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Now that he has been given the first round seal of approval by an NFL scouting department, I'd feel better about the 1.04 spot in rookie drafts. If you're in that spot I think you take whoever drops out of Ingram/Green/Jones/Baldwin. That's probably going to be Baldwin.

Even now that Baldwin is a pedigree WR, there are so many prime landing spots for RBs (STL, DAL, NE) I don't see how he stays at 1.4 when more guys come off the board tonight. If another WR like Little or Hankerson lands in STL in Rd 2, it'd be easy to take them over Baldwin too.

If you think Hankerson and Little are close to Baldwin in talent (I don't). No remaining WR has a chance to pass him on my board. Teams will reach for someone like Leshoure, Thomas, or Williams in the top 4 if one or more of those guys lands in a good spot. And you might end up getting some pretty good production out of them. Purely in terms of BPA, I don't see any of them topping Baldwin though.

Considering you had Leshoure over Baldwin as of January, why the change of heart if he goes somewhere favorable? Your statement above implies Leshoure is not talented or has no chance to be elite, and I think that is pretty false.I had Hankerson over Baldwin before the draft and if he goes to STL or CHI, then it makes that choice easier. Chance of success: Hankerson, Baldwin, Little. Upside: Little, Baldwin, Hankerson. I don't really see KCC as a great situation for a WR2 either given they have a Bowe, Moeaki, Charles, and perhaps some production from McCluster in the slot, all with a meh QB. Compared to STL, CHI, etc. who could all go WR tonight.

 

[EBF]

Leshoure is potentially good enough to excel in a starting spot, but he's nothing special. His value will depend heavily on situation. I do think that a lot of people will take him in the top 4 if he lands in a nice spot. Is that the wrong move? Not necessarily. I think he can be productive. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking him in the top 4 if he looks like an instant starter. Is he a better pro prospect than Baldwin though? No, not in my opinion.

I see Baldwin as being a clear tier or two above guys like Hankerson or Little, so where they land is irrelevant for me in terms of the WR3 discussion. No one will be passing Baldwin for that spot on my board because I see a gap between him and the next cluster.

 

[Spike]

Quick thoughts on the first day:

- The QBs went a lot higher than I expected. I think this has less to do with their talent and more to do with the desperation of certain teams. The NFL is very much a QB league. Teams will reach to try to fill that hole. My take on this group is that Newton is the best FF pick because of his upside. Gabbert seems like he could be a Flacco type in a best case scenario, so he might be worth a sniff in the late 1st/early 2nd if you don't like the other options on the board. I think Locker is likely to bust. I put Ponder in the same boat as Gabbert. Maybe he can be decent, but he's not a guy that I want to spend a first round rookie pick on. Overall I'd probably recommend letting your leaguemates gamble on the QBs this year. There's no one here that looks like a surefire top 10 franchise QB. Luck smokes any of these guys.

- Wednesday night I went back and watched highlights of all the top 15 WRs. The three guys that made my first tier were...Green, Jones, and Baldwin. No surprises there. People might question the Baldwin pick. I know he lacks sheer explosiveness and comes saddled with some character issues, but talent-wise he's worth what Kansas City paid for him. He's big and smooth. Certainly a cut above any of the other WR prospects who were left on the board. Now that he has been given the first round seal of approval by an NFL scouting department, I'd feel better about the 1.04 spot in rookie drafts. If you're in that spot I think you take whoever drops out of Ingram/Green/Jones/Baldwin. That's probably going to be Baldwin.

- 1.01-1.03 is interesting territory. I have to admit that I'm just not that sold on either of this year's top WR prospects. It's not that they're bad players, but they do seem overrated. I rated Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas higher than either of these guys. Green lacks strength, lateral quickness, and sheer deep speed. Jones is a better athlete, but prone to inconsistency. Perhaps a little bit of Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams. It's hard to say who I prefer. Green is better at catching the ball. Jones will probably have an easier time getting open. I think you can pretty much flip a coin here.

- The 1.01 is looking like Ingram to me. I just think his floor is higher than that of Green or Jones. In a worst case scenario I think he'll be a Cedric Benson type of back in the NFL. In a best case scenario I could see something along the lines of Frank Gore with less impact in the receiving game. His combine numbers were disappointing, but on the field he looks like the real deal. The situation in New Orleans will sort itself out eventually.

With the off-field/immaturity issues, do you still feel this way about Dez, in regard to AJ and Julio?

 

[Dez]

Tier Two

4. RB Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh

I have liked Lewis since the first time I saw him play. Short, stocky RBs who have an explosive initial burst and the ability to seamlessly weave together numerous cuts tend to do well in the NFL. Maurice Drew, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Ray Rice have shown that backs like Lewis can thrive in the pro game. Skeptics will cite his lack of size, but from what I can see he's plenty big and strong. He's just short. That hasn't mattered for the likes of Rice and Bradshaw, so I don't see it as any kind of impediment for Lewis. He might not be 5'10"+, but he runs low with a strong base and he's difficult to get a clean hit on because he's so shifty. Having said that, there are some legitimate concerns with Lewis. He doesn't appear to have blazing long speed and will probably be caught from behind on many occasions when other RBs would score. Concerns about size are overblown, but even "small" NFL RBs like Bradshaw, Rice, MJD, and Westbrook managed to tip the scales at ~200 pounds at the combine. I'd like to see Lewis do the same. Anything less than that will increase my fears of him becoming nothing more than a committee back. Assuming that he checks in at a decent weight and performs reasonably well in workouts, I don't see any reason why he can't emerge from the 2nd-4th round range of the NFL draft and become a valuable asset like Rice and Drew before him. He's probably not quite as good as those guys, but I think he's similar in quality to Bradshaw. That's about the kind of career I expect from him.

What happeend here ? You had Lewis as the #2 RB and he got drafted as the #17 RB and in the 5th round ?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

What happeend here ? You had Lewis as the #2 RB and he got drafted as the #17 RB and in the 5th round ?

Can I see your pre-draft rankings Dez? Would like to see how they stack up here. Assume yours were dramatically better? Or is it just your tone that's superior?

 

[Go deep]

What happeend here ? You had Lewis as the #2 RB and he got drafted as the #17 RB and in the 5th round ?

Can I see your pre-draft rankings Dez? Would like to see how they stack up here. Assume yours were dramatically better? Or is it just your tone that's superior?

Plus EBF posted them in January, before the combine and everything else. Dez is one of those hindsight experts.

 

[Dez]

What happeend here ? You had Lewis as the #2 RB and he got drafted as the #17 RB and in the 5th round ?

Can I see your pre-draft rankings Dez? Would like to see how they stack up here. Assume yours were dramatically better? Or is it just your tone that's superior?

I just can't understand how a guy is pre draft ranked #2 and he doesn't go until the 5th round.Pre draft ranking players before they are NFL drafted is not my thing nor did I ever claim it was. Your being all defensive when I ask a simple question on why a guy that was rated so high dropped so far.If someone is rated #2 I would not expect them to fall to #17.

 

[Crippler]

What happeend here ? You had Lewis as the #2 RB and he got drafted as the #17 RB and in the 5th round ?

Can I see your pre-draft rankings Dez? Would like to see how they stack up here. Assume yours were dramatically better? Or is it just your tone that's superior?

I just can't understand how a guy is pre draft ranked #2 and he doesn't go until the 5th round.Pre draft ranking players before they are NFL drafted is not my thing nor did I ever claim it was. Your being all defensive when I ask a simple question on why a guy that was rated so high dropped so far.If someone is rated #2 I would not expect them to fall to #17.

That is pretty easy. You may love him but why would you take him #2 if you know you can get him later. I am a huge Colin Kaepernick fan and think he is best QB from this draft. But I dont take him as the #1 or 2 QB. I wait till Gabbert and Newton are gone and than go get him. All about knowing your league and how the draft impacts them. I own Kaepernick in my home league where we draft before NFL draft and I dont trade him for anyone not named Jones or Green in our league. (2 QB league). Someone loves Lewis and see if he trades him quickly. That is the telling tale

 

[Tick]

What happeend here ? You had Lewis as the #2 RB and he got drafted as the #17 RB and in the 5th round ?

Can I see your pre-draft rankings Dez? Would like to see how they stack up here. Assume yours were dramatically better? Or is it just your tone that's superior?

I just can't understand how a guy is pre draft ranked #2 and he doesn't go until the 5th round.Pre draft ranking players before they are NFL drafted is not my thing nor did I ever claim it was. Your being all defensive when I ask a simple question on why a guy that was rated so high dropped so far.If someone is rated #2 I would not expect them to fall to #17.

That is pretty easy. You may love him but why would you take him #2 if you know you can get him later. I am a huge Colin Kaepernick fan and think he is best QB from this draft. But I dont take him as the #1 or 2 QB. I wait till Gabbert and Newton are gone and than go get him. All about knowing your league and how the draft impacts them. I own Kaepernick in my home league where we draft before NFL draft and I dont trade him for anyone not named Jones or Green in our league. (2 QB league). Someone loves Lewis and see if he trades him quickly. That is the telling tale

No, you don't rank a guy 17th if you think he's better than that. You might wait until the 17th pick to take him, but you rank him where he falls in your rankings.

 

[Steed]

What happeend here ? You had Lewis as the #2 RB and he got drafted as the #17 RB and in the 5th round ?

Can I see your pre-draft rankings Dez? Would like to see how they stack up here. Assume yours were dramatically better? Or is it just your tone that's superior?

I just can't understand how a guy is pre draft ranked #2 and he doesn't go until the 5th round.Pre draft ranking players before they are NFL drafted is not my thing nor did I ever claim it was. Your being all defensive when I ask a simple question on why a guy that was rated so high dropped so far.If someone is rated #2 I would not expect them to fall to #17.

It's called a "miss" and it happens to everyone. And just b/c he was the 17th drafted RB doesn't mean he can't eventually be one of the better RBs of the class. It's too early to even say it's a bad ranking.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

It's called a "miss" and it happens to everyone. And just b/c he was the 17th drafted RB doesn't mean he can't eventually be one of the better RBs of the class. It's too early to even say it's a bad ranking.

Actually, it only happens to people who put rankings out. People who don't put rankings out never miss.

 

[coolnerd]

It's called a "miss" and it happens to everyone. And just b/c he was the 17th drafted RB doesn't mean he can't eventually be one of the better RBs of the class. It's too early to even say it's a bad ranking.

Actually, it only happens to people who put rankings out. People who don't put rankings out never miss.

People who place rankings out have to take both the praise for both nailing the sleeper and questions for misses. The original question was not only fair but proper. People who critique them don't need make their own to question something that is on public display.

 

[Go deep]

It's called a "miss" and it happens to everyone. And just b/c he was the 17th drafted RB doesn't mean he can't eventually be one of the better RBs of the class. It's too early to even say it's a bad ranking.

Actually, it only happens to people who put rankings out. People who don't put rankings out never miss.

People who place rankings out have to take both the praise for both nailing the sleeper and questions for misses. The original question was not only fair but proper. People who critique them don't need make their own to question something that is on public display.

What does he want EBF to say? That he was wrong, or the NFL doesnt like him as much as he does? I think those things are pretty obvious. Again, EBF posted those rankings in January, before combines, pro days, player interviews, etc.. Lewis was in the 5-7 range for me in January, and Noel Devine was close to that as well. By NFL draft day, Lewis wasnt in my top 10 and Devine wasnt in my top 20.

 

[identikit]

It's called a "miss" and it happens to everyone. And just b/c he was the 17th drafted RB doesn't mean he can't eventually be one of the better RBs of the class. It's too early to even say it's a bad ranking.

Actually, it only happens to people who put rankings out. People who don't put rankings out never miss.

People who place rankings out have to take both the praise for both nailing the sleeper and questions for misses. The original question was not only fair but proper. People who critique them don't need make their own to question something that is on public display.

 

[Dez]

It's called a "miss" and it happens to everyone. And just b/c he was the 17th drafted RB doesn't mean he can't eventually be one of the better RBs of the class. It's too early to even say it's a bad ranking.

Actually, it only happens to people who put rankings out. People who don't put rankings out never miss.

People who place rankings out have to take both the praise for both nailing the sleeper and questions for misses. The original question was not only fair but proper. People who critique them don't need make their own to question something that is on public display.

What does he want EBF to say? That he was wrong, or the NFL doesnt like him as much as he does? I think those things are pretty obvious. Again, EBF posted those rankings in January, before combines, pro days, player interviews, etc.. Lewis was in the 5-7 range for me in January, and Noel Devine was close to that as well. By NFL draft day, Lewis wasnt in my top 10 and Devine wasnt in my top 20.

You guys are crazy in how you interpret what some people say on here.I don't watch much college football except for Ohio State. I follow college basketball that is my college sport of love. So when it comes to a lot of these college players I know very little about them going into the NFL draft. I just wanted to know the reason he thought a guy who he had rated so highly would drop so far. Is that a crime now ?

 

[BigTex]

I still like Lewis and will still take him before some of the backs that was taken before him in the NFL draft.

 

[EBF]

I put this list together in January. For the most part, I think I did pretty well.

There always going to be risers and fallers throughout the 3-4 months leading up to the draft. This is mainly because you discover new players that you weren't familiar with and realize that some players you initially liked aren't as highly-regarded by pro scouts as you thought they would be. So yea, I had guys like Dion Lewis, DeAndre Brown, and Noel Devine ranked well ahead of where I would've had them in April.

I still like Lewis a lot though. It's no secret that I prefer short, squatty running backs with good feet, a strong base, and exceptional change of direction skills. I think backs of this variety translate very well to the NFL level, and Dion Lewis fits the mold in a lot of ways. When I watch him play, I see a lot of the same things I saw with Ray Rice when he was at Rutgers.

Why did he fall in the draft? For one thing, he's very short. Rice was undersized at 5'8" 200 pounds, but Lewis is even smaller at 5'6.5" 193 pounds. That's going to scare teams away, especially when you add the fact he didn't put up impressive numbers at the combine. Draft Scout shows him running in the mid 4.5 range, which is not very good for a 193 pounder. You have to question whether a smaller back who lacks great speed will be able to find a home in the NFL.

These questions and the fact that he landed on a team with an established young starter pushed him down my board. I still rate him well above where most people have him, and I landed him in 3-4 of my rookie drafts.

 

[Dez]

I put this list together in January. For the most part, I think I did pretty well. There always going to be risers and fallers throughout the 3-4 months leading up to the draft. This is mainly because you discover new players that you weren't familiar with and realize that some players you initially liked aren't as highly-regarded by pro scouts as you thought they would be. So yea, I had guys like Dion Lewis, DeAndre Brown, and Noel Devine ranked well ahead of where I would've had them in April. I still like Lewis a lot though. It's no secret that I prefer short, squatty running backs with good feet, a strong base, and exceptional change of direction skills. I think backs of this variety translate very well to the NFL level, and Dion Lewis fits the mold in a lot of ways. When I watch him play, I see a lot of the same things I saw with Ray Rice when he was at Rutgers. Why did he fall in the draft? For one thing, he's very short. Rice was undersized at 5'8" 200 pounds, but Lewis is even smaller at 5'6.5" 193 pounds. That's going to scare teams away, especially when you add the fact he didn't put up impressive numbers at the combine. Draft Scout shows him running in the mid 4.5 range, which is not very good for a 193 pounder. You have to question whether a smaller back who lacks great speed will be able to find a home in the NFL. These questions and the fact that he landed on a team with an established young starter pushed him down my board. I still rate him well above where most people have him, and I landed him in 3-4 of my rookie drafts.

Thanks that was what I was looking for.I passed him up in my only rookie draft so far but we only hold 20 man rosters during the season so I didn't think he would be worth the stash in such a short roster league.

 

[joey]

Bump to see if EBF has an updated list to post...