Nope. I sit with the 2-3 in 16 team league where WR rules and I have ELi, Cutler and Flacco already at QB and my WR crew is Baldwin, Titus Young, James Jones, Golden Tate and Early Doucet. 2 is easy but while I could use Blackmon, I feel Richardson will be the guy there for me. Now what to do. Also have 7 and 9 and know I can get a WR there. It is very hard but lots of time to think about it and hope someone steps up for the 3 spot
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[DYNASTY] 2012 Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
Been doing a lot of work on the RBs the last few days. The more I watch David Wilson the less impressed with him I get. I love his speed but that's about the only thing about his game that I would consider elite. I am not a fan of his vision or his tendancy to try and do too much which sometimes results in him losing yards. It's helped to create some big plays but I still don't like to see a RB try and get too fancy and run backwards while looking for a hole. That will end up with him being eaten alive in the NFL. I think he could still be a good starting RB in the NFL but I'm not as convinced as I was before and would put him as a late 1st rounder.
Doug Martin and Lamar Miller are about neck-and-neck for the #2 RB on my list. I'd say they're about 2a and 2b right now. I love Martin's versatility, he has a great combination of speed, elusiveness and power. I think Miller has elite vision as well as elite speed. Miller does a great job at following his blockers and I think he does a great job at creating his own yards and making people miss. Martin is probably a bigger part of the passing game than Miller is and I think he's better in pass protection which probably gives him the leg up as a 3 down back. Miller I don't think is as good in pass protection so he may come off the field on 3rd downs. The thing that I like about Miller though is his ability to completely blow past defenders. I don't think that all of his big plays are simply a product of big holes, he's shown that he can go up the middle and find a hole and then has the speed to be able to get through it before he's tackled. Martin while he has very good acceleration, doesn't have the top gear that Miller does. Both jump off the screen but Miller has more big play potential. It's very hard to separate the two.
Thus far I'd say my rankings would be:
1. Trent Richardson
2a. Doug Martin
2b. Lamar Miller
4. Chris Polk
5. David Wilson
Doug Martin and Lamar Miller are about neck-and-neck for the #2 RB on my list. I'd say they're about 2a and 2b right now. I love Martin's versatility, he has a great combination of speed, elusiveness and power. I think Miller has elite vision as well as elite speed. Miller does a great job at following his blockers and I think he does a great job at creating his own yards and making people miss. Martin is probably a bigger part of the passing game than Miller is and I think he's better in pass protection which probably gives him the leg up as a 3 down back. Miller I don't think is as good in pass protection so he may come off the field on 3rd downs. The thing that I like about Miller though is his ability to completely blow past defenders. I don't think that all of his big plays are simply a product of big holes, he's shown that he can go up the middle and find a hole and then has the speed to be able to get through it before he's tackled. Martin while he has very good acceleration, doesn't have the top gear that Miller does. Both jump off the screen but Miller has more big play potential. It's very hard to separate the two.
Thus far I'd say my rankings would be:
1. Trent Richardson
2a. Doug Martin
2b. Lamar Miller
4. Chris Polk
5. David Wilson
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EBF
Footballguy
This is probably the one year where you should feel guilty about passing on a QB that high, but I would at least consider Floyd or Martin depending on how the draft shakes out. I think Floyd is kind of flying under the radar. He looks pretty good to me. As for Martin, I think he could have more trade value after one year in the NFL than Luck if he lands in a starting role. It's a bit of a gamble though.
Floyd is a great pick at #3 IMO. I have him right there with Blackmon.
beto
Footballguy
What other RBs have you scouted this year?
Vick Ballard, LaMichael James, Bernard Pierce, Robert Turbin and to a lesser extent, Cyrus Gray. I still need to watch more of Isaiah Pead.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I was trying to trade to spot #3, even though Rivers is my starter, until the team drafting #2 told me he is taking Luck. With a stacked WR corps (Jennings, Dez, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Collie, Laurent Robinson, etc.) I'm no longer going to try to trade to #3. In other teams' case I understand wanting to trade up for Blackmon, but unless that owner really wants to trade downI think you'd be best served trading to the middle of round 1 and take whoever of Floyd or Wright falls. I have to imagine in 99% of leagues at least will be there at the 7 spot. Probably later, but 7 assures you of him.Int he end draft elite players, then start drafting good players in good situations. Luck is an elite player, don't get cute. Even if you have a starter as is drat Luck for a) insurance and b) trade bait. Once Luck becomes the QB1 we all expect trade away your horse to upgrade elsewhere and acquire a more affordable QB2.The draft may impact my rankings but as of right now my rankings are as follows1. Richardson2. Luck3. Blackmon4. ?I think any of RG3, Lamar Miller, Michael Floyd, or Kendall Wright could slip into that 4 spot. Doug Martin could too, but I'm likely to keep him then Polk behind the above 4. In the right situation any of RG3, Miller, Floyd, or Wright could be great but I think they're situation dependent whereas the top 3 are situation proof. The only one I would consider moving to #3 over Blackmon would be RG3 if he went to the right situation. I can't think of one right now, but the off season will probably open an opporunity i.e. Miami. I don't like how Ross is running the team trending towards flash over substance but that could be a recipe for fantasy success if he brings in a WR to compliment Marshall (or Gates develops) and RG3 is under center.For the first time in a few years I think anyone with a round 1 pick will be happy as a guy like Sanu will probably be there until 1.12 since most like Wilson and Jeffrey (I don't). But I think there's a cliff dive in non idp leagues after him. A couple of good situation options may slip in to the early round 2 but I think the caliber of player you find at pick 14 will be very similar to pick 24. I don't want this to be a big reason to pass on Blackmon for RG3, but it's something to consider. If you pass on QB early you won't find another whereas if you pass on WR early you could find another. If RG3 vs. Blackmon ends up being close in your mind I'd use this as a tie breaker.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Wow, really? Seems like a perfect place to take Luck.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm somewhat in the same boat as you. The more I watch Wilson, the less impressed I am as well. The more I watch Miller, the more I like him. I agree that he does a great job creating on his own. I'm not sure where that criticism is coming from on EBF's part? I think he creates better than Martin, yet that is listed as a strength for him? Miller is best suited for a zone blocking scheme IMO, but will do well in the NFL no matter where he lands. I've clearly got Miller as my #2 right now and I guess that is the one area we differ. I see it like this right now.1. Richardson2. Miller3a. WIlson3b. Martin5. Polk'J-Dawg said:
beto
Footballguy
I guess it's a matter of having patience. Typically, top 3 picks produce in year 1 or year 2 with fantasy starter type numbers. When you take a QB that high, you should be prepared to wait at least 3 years. Rookies producing like Newton are pretty rare. Even though we are playing dynasty, most of us don't want to wait that long for a top 3 pick.'ConstruxBoy said:
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
No one in their right mind would take a QB #2 in a dynasty rookie draft unless it's a start 2 qb league....no one.'MAC_32 said:
Hoot&HoLLer
Footballguy
I got the #2 and #7 in a 12 team PPR where all TD=6 pts. The guy with #1 overall is stating he will take Luck. From the looks of his qb's on his roster, I would think he is being honest. I admit that in my league where all td's are 6 points, those super qbs who passed for over 4500 yds and 30 tds were on the teams in the playoffs. If he goes Luck, I will be thrilled with Richardson and then hope that RGIII falls to me at 7.'Crippler said:
beto
Footballguy
Does your league let you do that? :rollseyes:Isn't Cam the only QB to be a rookie stud in the last 15 years? Do you guarantee Luck will put up Cam numbers?
duaneok66
Footballguy
thanks for the serious post. My point is that it's possible that it could happen again. Cam is not the best QB prospect ever and his performance brought many owners FF titles. Luck has had way more hype , and RG3 gives hope in passing and running. The top 4 IMO will include both QBs.
Most years we don't have 2 uber elite qb prospects.Luck, and to a lesser extent rgIII, are worth top rookie picks.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Does it matter what his rookie numbers are? Only in a redraft. If you could do it over again would you draft Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers #2 in a dynasty draft? I know hindsight is 20/20 but if you believe Luck or Griffin are those kind of caliber players then he's worth the #2 pick.
MAC_32
Footballguy
If you think you just drafted the next Brady/Brees/Peyton/Rodgers I think it's the right move. If the next Adrian Peterson weren't in front of him I'd consider him #1.
Synesthesia
Footballguy
Vince Young became a starter in week 4 of his rookie year, and from then on ranked as QB8. Tim Tebow ranked as QB1 in his three starts as a rookie (and QB10 once he earned his starting job this season). That's three rookie QB studs in the last 6 years. Add second year players to the mix and you get guys like Daunte Culpepper (QB1 as a sophomore), Donovan McNabb (QB5 as a sophomore), Michael Vick (QB3 as a sophomore), Jeff Garcia (QB2 as a sophomore, although he spent some time in the CFL first), Aaron Brooks (QB8 as a sophomore), Josh Freeman (QB7 as a sophomore), Eli Manning (QB5 as a sophomore), Marc Bulger (QB9 in 15 games as a sophomore), and even Tyler Thigpen (QB2 as a sophomore from the time he secured the starting job through the end of the season). That's probably as many first and second year studs at QB as we've had at WR over the last decade, and yet I don't see anyone raising any red flags about drafting a WR with the #2 dynasty rookie pick.Of course, if you pay attention to those names, you'll notice that 9 of those 11 QBs supplemented their production with very strong rushing numbers (everyone but Eli and Bulger- and even Bulger had 4 rushing TDs). That might suggest that while drafting a QB high and expecting early returns isn't all that crazy, maybe Luck is the wrong QB to be looking at. I'd still prefer Luck just because I think he's safer and his long-term outlook is rosier, but I have the luxury of already owning Drew Brees. If I was really hurting at QB, I would at least have to seriously consider grabbing RG3 instead.
Synesthesia
Footballguy
It's always so hard to get a clear perspective with all this messy hindsight clouding everything, but does it seem to anyone else that this is the strongest draft class in recent memory? The Richardson/Blackmon/Luck trio is for my money the strongest top 3 since Peterson/Johnson/Lynch (some might prefer McFadden/Stewart/Mendenhall). Beyond that, though, there seem to be quality players all the way down through the entire first round. Someone with the #7 pick is guaranteed to walk away with Griffin, Floyd, Wright, or Martin, anyone one of whom are as good as many of the recent #3 guys. The #12 pick is getting a guy like Alshon, Wilson, Martin, Sanu, etc. Some of these guys are even likely to fall to the second round. It just seems like this is the deepest draft since the RB orgy of 2008. Am I just getting over-excited here? Has there been a similarly bullish consensus on other recent drafts, but I just can't remember it because of that messy hindsight I mentioned?
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I think it'll be a long time until there's another 2008 type draft (you almost couldn't miss through pick 9-10, with some other guys still there in the 2nd), but if the combine goes well I think this year could have some really nice RB depth. Not so many superstars, but a lot of guys who are VBD+ for multiple years.
Aside from the usual suspects I'm curious to see what Pead, L James, Bolden and Turbin really look like in Indy.
Aside from the usual suspects I'm curious to see what Pead, L James, Bolden and Turbin really look like in Indy.
MAC_32
Footballguy
WR2 is not weak, Kendall Wright is a beast. I think Floyd could be great, Sanu good, and many others are high on Jeffrey (I'm not). Lamar Miller has questions but has elite potnetial as the #2 RB. I love Martin, like Polk, and many like Wilson (like Jeffrey, again, I don't).I think there are 5 slam dunks in this crop (Richardson, Luck, Blackmon, RG3, and Wright), 2 possible studs (Miller and Floyd), and 3 real good players (Sanu, Martin, and Polk). With Jeffrey and Wilson in the mix too I think every owner with a round 1 pick will leave this draft with a potential future starter. Can't say that about recent drafts.
EBF
Footballguy
I agree that the top few players are excellent. Richardson and Luck are the best players I've seen at their positions in a long time. Blackmon is very close to that level. I like him more than I liked last year's top two receivers (though they both turned out a little better than I expected). Having said that, I think this year's draft is really weak outside the top 7-8 picks.
Usually there are some guys in the second round that really win me over and become targets for me in all of my leagues. I don't see those second tier players out there this year. Maybe that will change in the coming months, but for me this draft drops off a cliff once the first round guys are gone (with the exception of Martin and maybe Miller, who I also like).
I'm just not that jazzed about landing a Sanu, Jeffery, or Pierce for my FF team.
Usually there are some guys in the second round that really win me over and become targets for me in all of my leagues. I don't see those second tier players out there this year. Maybe that will change in the coming months, but for me this draft drops off a cliff once the first round guys are gone (with the exception of Martin and maybe Miller, who I also like).
I'm just not that jazzed about landing a Sanu, Jeffery, or Pierce for my FF team.
Synesthesia
Footballguy
I agree, with the benefit of hindsight, the 2008 draft is unlikely to be matched for a long, long time. Someone could have traded away their entire team for every single rookie pick in the top 2 rounds, and they'd actually have one of the better teams in the league today (CJ3, Forte, McFadden, Slaton, Rice, Charles- trade away 3 of those RBs for QBs, WRs, and TEs and you've got an elite franchise).I'm talking about without the benefit of hindsight. Going into 2008, it was perceived as a very deep draft, with a lot of quality prospects all the way on down the first round. It exceeded all expectations, but it seems that this year's draft seems deeper at this point than any other recent draft except for 2008.Perhaps EBF is right and there's really nothing exciting in the second round of this year's rookie draft, but I'm never excited about rookie second rounders, anyway. There's always some value to be had, but the second round has something like a 90% bust rate in even the best of conditions. I'd much prefer a draft where I could win the league championship and still parlay my #12 pick into an Alshon Jeffrey.'wdcrob said:
Are WR2-4 weak? Are RB2-4 weak? It doesn't seem like it. Kendall Wright (the presumptive WR3) seems like a much more exciting pick than Greg Little was last year. Lamar Miller blows Daniel Thomas out of the water, as far as I'm concerned. I think this year's draft is looking better at every single pick compared to last year's. The one possible exception would be #2 (Green vs. Blackmon or Luck), and even that's about a wash- Green's a better talent, but I had some serious concerns based on the dysfunction of the Bengals as a landing spot.'beto said:
Warpig
Footballguy
I agree with EBF here. While I think that RG3 will have some success in the NFL (though I'm not a fan of QB's that come from spread offenses since they rarely, if ever, are successful).I'd much rather have a QB capable of
as well as having a cannon arm.RG3 may have track star speed and the mental make-up you want, but he's no Luck.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In my hometown dynasty the guy picking at No. 2 has Chad Henne, Matt Moore and Blaine Gabbert as his QBs. If he picks Luck I don't think many will bat an eye.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well in a dynasty league, rookie year stats don't paint the full picture. Even so it's quite possible that Blackmon isn't productive enough to break into fantasy strating line-ups, isn't it?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Except for those of us that took Devin Thomas at 1.08'wdcrob said:
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Bloom had him rated at #4 I believeExcept for those of us that took Devin Thomas at 1.08'wdcrob said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Waldman was very high on him as well - his top WR. From the film/highlights I watched I was sold as well. When you miss in a draft that produced McFadden, Mendenhall, C. Johnson, Stewart, R. Rice, Forte, M. Ryan, D. Jackson, J. Charles, etc. it stings really bad. :(Bloom had him rated at #4 I believeExcept for those of us that took Devin Thomas at 1.08'wdcrob said:
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benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I got pretty lucky that draft(we draft before the NFL Draft) I nabbed Forte at 1.5, Charles at 1.6(leaving CJ2K and Felix Jones on the board), and Desean Jackson at 1.12(ahead of Devin Thomas).I really like this draft moving forward, but i'm having trouble placing players. It seems like the NFL is loaded with talent right now. Some teams have 2 good RB's and most are in RBBC. So it's tough to place players and find value.Waldman was very high on him as well - his top WR. From the film/highlights I watched I was sold as well. When you miss in a draft that produced McFadden, Mendenhall, C. Johnson, Stewart, R. Rice, Forte, M. Ryan, D. Jackson, J. Charles, etc. it stings really bad. :(Bloom had him rated at #4 I believeExcept for those of us that took Devin Thomas at 1.08'wdcrob said:
cstu
Footballguy
They should because Blackmon is worth a proven top 5 QB.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Dang. I really like Blackmon (I mean really) but...really?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't know about that. You think anyone holding Rodgers, Newton, Brees, Stafford or Brady are moving them for Blackmon?
jurb26
Footballguy
Not a chance.
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
I can't get fair value for Brady in a dynasty league. I have Aaron Rodgers and no one wants Brady for some odd reason. I even tried giving a discount. I've resigned myself to the fact that I will ride Brady as a backup, except in certain matchups, until he retires.
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Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
I would move Brady for Blackmon if given the opportunity.
Just out of curiosity, what kind of discount deals have you offered?
cstu
Footballguy
The first four are my top dynasty QB's, but after them I would trade any QB - including a 35 yo Brady - for Blackmon.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Looks like having pick 7 thru 9 might net some good value. Thinking 2 qbs go in the top 6 this year.
You can always find a QB who sets passing records and puts up 400 FF points? I didn't realize Blackmon was a perennial 1000 yard receiver either.Seems rookie hype hits new highs every offseason.
EBF
Footballguy
Brees and Brady are both sell highs in dynasty if people really view them as top 20 picks. Brees is 33 and Brady is 35. More importantly, they're both coming off career years. Brees set career highs in yards. Brady set career highs in yards and pass attempts. If their numbers drop back down to their career averages then you've just spent a top 20 dynasty pick on a player who will score 2-3 points per game more than Eli, Ryan, or Roethlisberger. Not worth it at all.
Blackmon is a great prospect and (IMO) a very good bet for top 10 dynasty WR status in the near future. You won't be able to trade Brees or Brady for him in many leagues a year from now, much less two or three.
Blackmon is a great prospect and (IMO) a very good bet for top 10 dynasty WR status in the near future. You won't be able to trade Brees or Brady for him in many leagues a year from now, much less two or three.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm not really sure what his post had to do with Cam or Stafford.
I love all the matter of fact talk about Blackmon right now. It appears his value might be highest now, before he ever enters the NFL.It was a comment about how Brady/Brees are being over-rated by people ranking them as top 2-3 dynasty qb's, and thus are sell highs if you can find someone to buy them at that price.I'm not really sure what his post had to do with Cam or Stafford.
Ned
Footballguy
Or.... Trade out of it. Or better yet, take the guy you like.
Ned
Footballguy
Agreed 100%.
You do realize that more of these guys miss than hit, correct? Didn't you have Crabtree and Moreno as your top 2 rookies a few years ago? Pretty sure you had Crabtree as a top 5 WR, and anyone who took him anywhere near there really hurt their teams.It's obviously going to come down to league settings, etc., but give me the QB who is going to score 2-3 more points per game over other QBs if they regress over a guy who has a better chance at scoring 2-3 points per game less than a WR you can get much later in the draft. There's a reason you often see the same teams drafting near the top of drafts in many dynasty leagues- they pass on proven studs like Brees and Brady for the potential of a guy like Blackmon. Maybe it'll pan out, but more often than not it won't. There should be a premium for youth, but that's too much- there should also be a premium for reliability.
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