[DYNASTY] 2012 Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)

[Synesthesia]

I would probably trade any QB besides Rodgers or Cam for him in a dynasty. You can always find a QB. Perennial 1000 yard receivers have a higher price tag.

You can always find a QB who is good for 4732 yards a year? That's Brees' average since he joined New Orleans. Guys like that don't grow on trees. Blackmon's career might be twice as long as Brees', but his bust risk is twice as high.I get trading Brady for Blackmon. I don't get trading Brees for Blackmon. There's a huge difference between 32 and 34- it's the same as the difference between 26 and 28 at RB. In the meantime, Drew Brees is the kind of guy who wins you leagues. Since joining New Orleans, Brees has finished 9th, 22nd, 3rd, 7th, 27th, and 2nd in overall season-ending VBD. His VBD value has been topped by 1, 8, 0, 1, 6, and 0 WRs in those seasons (average of fewer than 3 a year). If Brees gives me just 3-4 more years of that kind of production, I won't care in the slightest what I had to pass on to get him- I'd much rather worry about how I'm going to replace him in a couple of years while I'm busy counting my rings. Perhaps I'll replace him by trading another 1st round pick for a 32 year old proven difference maker. Ya dig?

 

[EBF]

I had Moreno as a weak #1 RB in a weak class and traded him away in every league where I owned him after his rookie season. I was never that thrilled with him. He was a middling talent.

Crabtree has been a good NFL player when healthy. He was a top 12 receiver in my league over the second half of the season. He caught 75 of his 115 targets, which is excellent. And yea, I had him as a top 5 guy once upon a time. I overrated him. Lesson learned. I think Blackmon is a better prospect. He's a more athletic version of the same player, without the durability issues. That's an exciting proposition in PPR leagues.

This just happens to be a star-studded draft class. For me, Luck, Richardson, and Blackmon are can't-miss players. These guys are among the best players to enter the league at their position since I started playing dynasty FF. I didn't feel that way about the likes of Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, and Braylon Edwards. Not every class is created equal.

There are a lot of elite football players in the world and some of them just happen to be in college. You wait for them to "prove" it in the NFL and you might miss the opportunity to acquire them entirely. I feel pretty comfortable saying Blackmon and Richardson carry more dynasty value than Brees and Brady going forward. It's not about what happened from 2005-2011. It's about what will happen next.

You can point to busts like Moreno and Edwards. I can point to successes like Calvin and Mendenhall. I don't think people who bought the "hype" about AJ Green and Julio Jones are too torn up right now. Likewise, I think people who pay a reasonable price for Richardson or Blackmon today will feel great about it for the next few years.

 

[humpback]

I had Moreno as a weak #1 RB in a weak class and traded him away in every league where I owned him after his rookie season. I was never that thrilled with him. He was a middling talent.

Crabtree has been a good NFL player when healthy. He was a top 12 receiver in my league over the second half of the season. He caught 75 of his 115 targets, which is excellent. And yea, I had him as a top 5 guy once upon a time. I overrated him. Lesson learned. I think Blackmon is a better prospect. He's a more athletic version of the same player, without the durability issues. That's an exciting proposition in PPR leagues.

This just happens to be a star-studded draft class. For me, Luck, Richardson, and Blackmon are can't-miss players. These guys are among the best players to enter the league at their position since I started playing dynasty FF. I didn't feel that way about the likes of Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, and Braylon Edwards. Not every class is created equal.

There are a lot of elite football players in the world and some of them just happen to be in college. You wait for them to "prove" it in the NFL and you might miss the opportunity to acquire them entirely. I feel pretty comfortable saying Blackmon and Richardson carry more dynasty value than Brees and Brady going forward. It's not about what happened from 2005-2011. It's about what will happen next.

You can point to busts like Moreno and Edwards. I can point to successes like Calvin and Mendenhall. I don't think people who bought the "hype" about AJ Green and Julio Jones are too torn up right now. Likewise, I think people who pay a reasonable price for Richardson or Blackmon today will feel great about it for the next few years.

That's the point- you traded him away after his rookie season, when you could see what he could do in the NFL. You had him as your #1 rookie before that. Perhaps Crabtree has been a good NFL player if you pick parts of seasons, but he's been a bust as a FF WR. It actually doesn't appear you have learned your lesson since you would take another WR who has never played a down in the NFL over two of the best QBs in the history of the league.Don't get me wrong, I'm not bashing your judgement here, I was high on Crabtree (and others as well). The point is, these guys have much more risk than established veterans, even the professionals are wrong more often than they're right. Yes, if you wait to aquire them you might miss out entirely. History has shown that you'd be better off that way.

No, the guys taking AJ or Julio aren't torn up right now, although the guy who traded either of them for Brees or Brady had a much better chance at winning last year. The guy who took Ingram is probably torn up, as are the guys who took the majority of the top picks over the past several years instead of trading them for studs. I like Richardson and Blackmon, and I'm all for paying a reasonable price for them, I just think we have a different definition of reasonable. Drew Brees isn't "reasonable" value IMO.

 

[EBF]

I would probably trade any QB besides Rodgers or Cam for him in a dynasty. You can always find a QB. Perennial 1000 yard receivers have a higher price tag.

You can always find a QB who is good for 4732 yards a year? That's Brees' average since he joined New Orleans. Guys like that don't grow on trees. Blackmon's career might be twice as long as Brees', but his bust risk is twice as high.I get trading Brady for Blackmon. I don't get trading Brees for Blackmon. There's a huge difference between 32 and 34- it's the same as the difference between 26 and 28 at RB. In the meantime, Drew Brees is the kind of guy who wins you leagues. Since joining New Orleans, Brees has finished 9th, 22nd, 3rd, 7th, 27th, and 2nd in overall season-ending VBD. His VBD value has been topped by 1, 8, 0, 1, 6, and 0 WRs in those seasons (average of fewer than 3 a year). If Brees gives me just 3-4 more years of that kind of production, I won't care in the slightest what I had to pass on to get him- I'd much rather worry about how I'm going to replace him in a couple of years while I'm busy counting my rings. Perhaps I'll replace him by trading another 1st round pick for a 32 year old proven difference maker. Ya dig?

Brees has a more compelling case because he's younger than Brady and has been a more consistent difference-maker in FF leagues. Here are their PPG averages for the last several years in one of my PPR dynasty leagues:

Tom Brady

2011 - 27.17

2010 - 21.53

2009 - 20.74

2008 - N/A (injured all season)

2007 - 28.42

2006 - 17.21

2005 - 19.42

Drew Brees

2011 - 28.91

2010 - 21.49

2009 - 24.07

2008 - 23.48

2007 - 20.63

2006 - 20.19

2005 - 16.98

Brady has had several great seasons and two insane seasons, the Moss year and this year. He was absolutely a difference maker in 2007 and 2011, but not so much in 2009 and 2010. If you assume that his "real" expected production is somewhere in the middle, then you're looking at something like 23-24 ppg, which would give you a nice ppg edge over merely "solid" QBs like Romo, Rivers, and Ryan. Then again, that's not a safe assumption and Brady will be 35 next season. Will he age like Warner or will he age like McNabb? There's no way of knowing.

Brees has averaged 23+ ppg three of the last four years. The Saints have been more consistent in their commitment to an all-out passing attack, as Brees has ranked in the top 2 in pass attempts/game three out of the last four seasons. He actually ranks first all time among all NFL players in career passing attempts/game average. In other words, he plays in a very friendly system. That's not likely to change given how successful NO has been recently. I think he's more likely than Brady to average 24+ ppg next season. At the same time, buying him now is clearly buying him at the peak of his career. He absolutely shattered his career bests in passing TDs and passing yards. Even with Sproles and Graham looking like key difference makers, I'm not sure we can expect another season like this.

The age thing is also a factor for Brees. 33 isn't ancient for QBs, but it's not young either. Brees already ranks 11th among NFL QBs in career pass attempts, so you could argue that he's an "old" 32 (he also has a serious shoulder injury in his past). On the other hand, he's barely over 50% of the way to Brett Favre's NFL record of 10,000+ pass attempts, so we have a precedent of a player with a similar stature and playing style enduring for many, many more years at a high level. Brees might be capable of 6-7 seasons of near peak performance.

I still think I'd take Blackmon and Richardson. I think it's relatively easy to acquire a serviceable starter at QB. Sure, you might not get 4500 passing yards or 35 TDs from a player like Eli Manning or Philip Rivers, but in any given season they have the potential to be right there in that 21-22 ppg range, which is right where Brady and Brees were last season. And how much would it cost to acquire one of them? A 4th-6th round pick in a dynasty startup? Whatever it is, it would be much less than the price of a solid, dependable starter at RB or WR.

Therein lies one of the problems with paying top dollar for a QB. Rightly or wrongly, QBs aren't valued as highly in FF leagues as other positions. So if you draft a QB with a premium pick, right away you've limited your flexibility in trades. You likely won't be able to move Brees or Brady for a top RB/WR. On the flipside, there is almost always a market for a top WR/RB (though you'll encounter similar problems if it's a 28+ year old WR/RB).

And the exit value definitely favors the younger guys. Brady and Brees might give you great production over the next five years, but their trade value will depreciate steadily as they approach their expiration date. Players like Blackmon and Richardson will actually appreciate in value over the next 2-3 years, provided that they live up to expectations.

I can see the sense in both sides, but I think the career year syndrome has inflated perception of Brady and Brees's value, and I just happen to think that the best players in this year's draft qualify as those rare can't-miss talents who you can realistically expect to become among the most productive and valuable players at their position in the NFL.

 

[Synesthesia]

Brees has a more compelling case because he's younger than Brady and has been a more consistent difference-maker in FF leagues.

Here are their PPG averages for the last several years in one of my PPR dynasty leagues:

Tom Brady

2011 - 27.17

2010 - 21.53

2009 - 20.74

2008 - N/A (injured all season)

2007 - 28.42

2006 - 17.21

2005 - 19.42

Drew Brees

2011 - 28.91

2010 - 21.49

2009 - 24.07

2008 - 23.48

2007 - 20.63

2006 - 20.19

2005 - 16.98

Brady has had several great seasons and two insane seasons, the Moss year and this year. He was absolutely a difference maker in 2007 and 2011, but not so much in 2009 and 2010. If you assume that his "real" expected production is somewhere in the middle, then you're looking at something like 23-24 ppg, which would give you a nice ppg edge over merely "solid" QBs like Romo, Rivers, and Ryan. Then again, that's not a safe assumption and Brady will be 35 next season. Will he age like Warner or will he age like McNabb? There's no way of knowing.

Brees has averaged 23+ ppg three of the last four years. The Saints have been more consistent in their commitment to an all-out passing attack, as Brees has ranked in the top 2 in pass attempts/game three out of the last four seasons. He actually ranks first all time among all NFL players in career passing attempts/game average. In other words, he plays in a very friendly system. That's not likely to change given how successful NO has been recently. I think he's more likely than Brady to average 24+ ppg next season. At the same time, buying him now is clearly buying him at the peak of his career. He absolutely shattered his career bests in passing TDs and passing yards. Even with Sproles and Graham looking like key difference makers, I'm not sure we can expect another season like this.

The age thing is also a factor for Brees. 33 isn't ancient for QBs, but it's not young either. Brees already ranks 11th among NFL QBs in career pass attempts, so you could argue that he's an "old" 32 (he also has a serious shoulder injury in his past). On the other hand, he's barely over 50% of the way to Brett Favre's NFL record of 10,000+ pass attempts, so we have a precedent of a player with a similar stature and playing style enduring for many, many more years at a high level. Brees might be capable of 6-7 seasons of near peak performance.

I still think I'd take Blackmon and Richardson. I think it's relatively easy to acquire a serviceable starter at QB. Sure, you might not get 4500 passing yards or 35 TDs from a player like Eli Manning or Philip Rivers, but in any given season they have the potential to be right there in that 21-22 ppg range, which is right where Brady and Brees were last season. And how much would it cost to acquire one of them? A 4th-6th round pick in a dynasty startup? Whatever it is, it would be much less than the price of a solid, dependable starter at RB or WR.

Therein lies one of the problems with paying top dollar for a QB. Rightly or wrongly, QBs aren't valued as highly in FF leagues as other positions. So if you draft a QB with a premium pick, right away you've limited your flexibility in trades. You likely won't be able to move Brees or Brady for a top RB/WR. On the flipside, there is almost always a market for a top WR/RB (though you'll encounter similar problems if it's a 28+ year old WR/RB).

And the exit value definitely favors the younger guys. Brady and Brees might give you great production over the next five years, but their trade value will depreciate steadily as they approach their expiration date. Players like Blackmon and Richardson will actually appreciate in value over the next 2-3 years, provided that they live up to expectations.

I can see the sense in both sides, but I think the career year syndrome has inflated perception of Brady and Brees's value, and I just happen to think that the best players in this year's draft qualify as those rare can't-miss talents who you can realistically expect to become among the most productive and valuable players at their position in the NFL.

It's not "career year" syndrome in the case of Drew Brees. As I pointed out, he's been top-10 in overall VBD in 4 of the past 6 seasons. He's not coming off a career year, he's coming off a career career.Like I said, I get Tom Brady. I'd trade Tom Brady for a top 3 pick without breaking a sweat. I just don't think Brees should be lumped in with Brady- he's been a consistently bigger difference maker, and he's two years younger (which is not a big deal when we're talking about 23 vs. 25, but which is a huge deal when we're talking about 34 vs. 32). If we lived in a magical world where all QBs maintained their level of play until age 36 and then spontaneously combusted, Drew Brees would have double the career left in front of him, and since he's more valuable on a per-season basis, I don't think it'd be a stretch to say he's 2.5-3 times as valuable as Brady. I think Drew Brees has as much career left in front of him as, say, Arian Foster.

 

[EBF]

That's the point- you traded him away after his rookie season, when you could see what he could do in the NFL. You had him as your #1 rookie before that. Perhaps Crabtree has been a good NFL player if you pick parts of seasons, but he's been a bust as a FF WR. It actually doesn't appear you have learned your lesson since you would take another WR who has never played a down in the NFL over two of the best QBs in the history of the league.

I didn't like Moreno as a top 5 dynasty RB before his rookie year. It's not like I ever thought he was going to be a star. The only reason I got stuck with him in the first place is because I had some high rookie picks that year, needed a RB, and didn't like Beanie Wells at all. There are strong drafts and weak drafts. Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams were top 5 NFL draft picks. This was less because they were superstar once-per-decade talents and more because that draft as a whole stunk. To a lesser extent, the same thing was true of the Moreno/Wells draft. Just a bad year to get the 1.01 or 1.02 rookie pick if you needed a RB.

On the flipside, everyone pretty much knew that 2007 was a bumper crop and that you had hit the jackpot if you were lucky enough to get a chance at Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, or (to a lesser extent) Marshawn Lynch. I'd argue that this year's class is the same. I don't lump Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon in with just your average 1.01, 1.02 rookie picks. I think they are both close to that Calvin/ADP level where you basically know you're getting a corner stone.

No, the guys taking AJ or Julio aren't torn up right now, although the guy who traded either of them for Brees or Brady had a much better chance at winning last year. The guy who took Ingram is probably torn up, as are the guys who took the majority of the top picks over the past several years instead of trading them for studs. I like Richardson and Blackmon, and I'm all for paying a reasonable price for them, I just think we have a different definition of reasonable. Drew Brees isn't "reasonable" value IMO.

It's not all about last year though. It's about every year. Just because player X outscores player Z in a given year doesn't mean he's going to have the more valuable career. I wouldn't trade Jon Baldwin for Heath Miller, even though Miller would have given me a better chance at winning this year. I think Baldwin has a better chance of becoming a valuable asset in the future. Sometimes it takes 2-3 years before you really know what you have with a rookie. Look at a guy like Darrius Heyward-Bey. After one season he was considered a complete flop and a worthless joke. Since then he has shown that he at least has some modicum of talent. Careers aren't built in a year. Likewise, you shouldn't close the book on a player after one year.

As an Ingram owner, I can tell you that I'm not at all torn up about having him on my roster. That's because I don't judge my rookie picks on the basis of one season.

But that's getting off on a tangent. Ultimately, I just have more faith than you do in players like Richardson and Blackmon. You seem to view them as just another set of prospects who may or may not amount to anything. I view them as sure things who rank among the most valuable players at their positions in FF. Of course we don't agree on what constitutes a reasonable price tag for these two.

 

[identikit]

That's because I don't judge my rookie picks on the basis of one season.

Yet earlier you judged Crabtree by 1/2 a season.

 

[EBF]

That's because I don't judge my rookie picks on the basis of one season.

Yet earlier you judged Crabtree by 1/2 a season.

Nope. His trade value for me today is the same as it was last season. If I feel I have a pretty good handle on a player's value, I don't radically change that opinion based on a handful of games. Having said that, I definitely did overrate Crabtree in the past. I don't see him as being in that Andre/Calvin class today. I think he's more along the lines of a Hines Ward type of player.

 

[MAC_32]

This class is miles better than the Crabtree/Moreno draft. Last years too. It's not close. Try to get as many top 15 picks as you can this year.

 

[Tau837]

Just wanted to say this is one of the best threads I've read in this forum in a long time. Good OP and excellent discussion. Thanks to all who are contributing.

GB the fantasy offseason.

 

[humpback]

Beating a dead horse here, but I just wanted to clarify something- I don't judge or close the book on guys based on one season, but I think that is another positive in favor of veterans. All else being equal, I'd rather get production out of someone this year than not.

You pointed out our difference of opinion (on your side at least). You said you view those guys "as sure things who rank among the most valuable players at their positions in FF". I don't consider them to be just any prospects, but I do consider the fact that many prospects who were close in talent such as Crabtree have not lived up to the hype. There is a very realistic possibility that rookies do not become the most valuable players at their positions in FF, regardless of how much of a sure thing people think they are.

Good discussion, I appreciate your insight, I just can't be so sure about a player when we don't even know what team they are playing on. Age is certainly a factor, but so is reliability and I try and balance the two. I'd take Brees or Fitz over Blackmon in a start-up every time, the reduced risk just outweighs the smaller possible reward IMO.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Count me in on the "acquire top 12 picks in 2012" club.

I'll also side with EBF and the others who say that Richardson is the best looking RB prospect since ADP.

I'll also side with EBF and the others who say that Blackmon looks as good as Dez + class, or A.J. Green/Julio and better than Crabtree (who is still blossoming and likely to continue development if foot ailments subside and he gets a training camp for the 1st time and under Harbaugh no less - sorry, just a poke to those writing Crabtree off too early). I don't like him as much as Calvin before his rookie year, but alongside the others.

 

[todisco1]

This class is miles better than the Crabtree/Moreno draft. Last years too. It's not close. Try to get as many top 15 picks as you can this year.

The "crabtree" draft yielded LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace, Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, Josh Freeman, Crabtree, Chris Wells, Shonne Green, Donald Brown, DHB, Austin Collie. Do you really think this draft is "miles better" than that one? Look at the WRs - it's one of the best drafts in recent memory for wideouts, it would be difficult for this draft to match that one at wide reciever. And guys thought to be busts like DHB and Donald Brown showed signs of life this year.

 

[Shutout]

There are strong drafts and weak drafts. Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams were top 5 NFL draft picks. This was less because they were superstar once-per-decade talents and more because that draft as a whole stunk.[/b] To a lesser extent, the same thing was true of the Moreno/Wells draft. Just a bad year to get the 1.01 or 1.02 rookie pick if you needed a RB.

That's not really true at all. At the time they came out and for a time after that draft, this was seen as a very strong draft; easily beating out the one the year before it (kevin and julius jones, Tatum Bell, etc. Fitz was the catch there).Caddy came out like a gang buster. Ronnie was actually top 3 early in his career and tore up his knee. Say what you want of Benson but he has been a key part to several FF teams recently. Injuries, NOT perception, diluted that draft but at the time it occurred, it was every bit as coveted as this one.

Also, to say that draft stunk probably says more that people missed the boat or didn't know where to look more than it says anything about the impact of that draft.

Braylon Edwards, Frank Gore, Vincent Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, <----, Roddy White, Heath Miller, Marion barber All came out of that draft.

If you are an IDP'er, it is hands down one of the most significant recent drafts.

Demarcus Ware, Justin Tuck, Antrel Rolle, Pacman Jones,Thomas davis, Derrick Johnson, Shawne Merriman, David Pollack, Odell Thurman, Barrett Ruud, Nick collins, Lofa Tatupu, Kirk Morrison, Trent Cole, Kerry Rhodes all came from that draft. Some of those guys got injured early but it was a very impactful Def draft as well.

I'm as big a fan of Blackmon as a lot of people (and I actually think Richardson might be a disappointment relative to hyped up expectations), but it is interesting to hear that most real life analysts don't rank him as highly as they did AJ Green or Calvin when they came out. They may be right or wrong but it just illustrates that the draft is a bit of a crap shoot, even for the people whose jobs it is to do it.

So when people want to start saying they would trade guys like Brees or Brady for rookies, without batting an eye, that seems like a mistake. What's the old saying? A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush?

I think we have seen enough of both these QBs over the years to know that, barring a significant injury (and that can be something that happens to any player), that Brees and Brady are the types of players...on the types of teams...that can have 4-5 more top 5 years. That is A LOT to trade for a guy that hasn't proven anything. Sure, he might be Fitz. But he might also be Braylon Edwards..or worse, Rashaun Woods.

With Brees and Brady, we know they ARE Brees and Brady. I agree that in a dynasty you have to consider age, but I think one of the biggest mistakes people make in dynasty leagues is to get caught up in the "Logan's Run" syndrome. Everyone wants their team to be full of 26 year old studs and they sell off their steady, great players too soon. A 32-34 year old QB CAN be a caution sign, but for anyone watching NFL football, if you can't see that a 34 year old Tom Brady is a stark different thing than a 34 year old Donovan McNabb, then you may be playing the wrong game. There really is no reason to debate that Brady won't be a top QB in this league until the time comes that he decides to leave.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I would probably trade any QB besides Rodgers or Cam for him in a dynasty. You can always find a QB. Perennial 1000 yard receivers have a higher price tag.

I like Blackmon a lot, but "perennial 1000 yard receiver" is not guaranteed - plus there are many WRs doing just that.I think if some one had two of the Top 5 QBs, of course they jump on it - otherwise I doubt it. Even Brady at 35 years of age has at least 3 great years ahead of him - if the team that has him is a contender, why would they trade him?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

No one in their right mind would take a QB #2 in a dynasty rookie draft unless it's a start 2 qb league....no one.

In my hometown dynasty the guy picking at No. 2 has Chad Henne, Matt Moore and Blaine Gabbert as his QBs. If he picks Luck I don't think many will bat an eye.

They should because Blackmon is worth a proven top 5 QB.

I don't know about that. You think anyone holding Rodgers, Newton, Brees, Stafford or Brady are moving them for Blackmon?

Not a chance.

The first four are my top dynasty QB's, but after them I would trade any QB - including a 35 yo Brady - for Blackmon.

I guess you could also say if you thought Luck was going to be a consistent Top 5 QB, why not just take him over Blackmon (if you need a QB) rather than try and trade Blackmon for a Top 5 QB.Personally I may not do it if I was that guy, but I wouldn't see it as a huge mistake either.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Brees might be capable of 6-7 seasons of near peak performance. I still think I'd take Blackmon and Richardson. I think it's relatively easy to acquire a serviceable starter at QB. Sure, you might not get 4500 passing yards or 35 TDs from a player like Eli Manning or Philip Rivers, but in any given season they have the potential to be right there in that 21-22 ppg range, which is right where Brady and Brees were last season.

It's not all that hard to get aging veterans at WR or RB that still produce near (or maybe even above) the level that Richardson and Blackmon will over those 6-7 years that you'll have Brees near peak performance. It would be pretty cheap to acquire the Steven Jackson's and Frank Gore's or Steve Smith's and Reggie Wayne's of the world year after year.That's thing thing. It works both ways.

 

[MAC_32]

This class is miles better than the Crabtree/Moreno draft. Last years too. It's not close. Try to get as many top 15 picks as you can this year.

The "crabtree" draft yielded LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace, Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, Josh Freeman, Crabtree, Chris Wells, Shonne Green, Donald Brown, DHB, Austin Collie. Do you really think this draft is "miles better" than that one? Look at the WRs - it's one of the best drafts in recent memory for wideouts, it would be difficult for this draft to match that one at wide reciever. And guys thought to be busts like DHB and Donald Brown showed signs of life this year.

Yes. The depth is just as strong but the top of the class is MUCH better. I ended up with Harvin, Collie, and Wallace from that class. I also liked Shady, Shonn Greene (oops) and Maclin, but missed on Nicks, Stafford, and Britt. I was not, am still not, a fan of Beanie, Donald Brown, DHB, Pettigrew, and Freeman. And call me crazy but I still peg Crabtree as a wildcard. I think he can still emerge...unless that foot problem is chronic.In the end this crop will be better. Position for position I'd take the top 12-15 in this class over every spot in that one and I have a few choice favorites lingering later too.

 

[jurb26]

This class is miles better than the Crabtree/Moreno draft. Last years too. It's not close. Try to get as many top 15 picks as you can this year.

The "crabtree" draft yielded LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace, Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, Josh Freeman, Crabtree, Chris Wells, Shonne Green, Donald Brown, DHB, Austin Collie. Do you really think this draft is "miles better" than that one? Look at the WRs - it's one of the best drafts in recent memory for wideouts, it would be difficult for this draft to match that one at wide reciever. And guys thought to be busts like DHB and Donald Brown showed signs of life this year.

Yes. The depth is just as strong but the top of the class is MUCH better. I ended up with Harvin, Collie, and Wallace from that class. I also liked Shady, Shonn Greene (oops) and Maclin, but missed on Nicks, Stafford, and Britt. I was not, am still not, a fan of Beanie, Donald Brown, DHB, Pettigrew, and Freeman. And call me crazy but I still peg Crabtree as a wildcard. I think he can still emerge...unless that foot problem is chronic.In the end this crop will be better. Position for position I'd take the top 12-15 in this class over every spot in that one and I have a few choice favorites lingering later too.

Well, we are fortunate to have the ability to look back at the success of the earlier class and that certainly can skew perceptions in debates like this. I have to still agree that it was a better class though. I said back at that time that Stafford was the bes QB prospect to come out in years and I think he's lived up to that. I do think Luck is at the same level of prospect, but even with that said we will be fortunate to see Luck pan out that way. In contrast, I was never a fan of Crabtree and thought his class was weak at WR and lacked an elite prospect. I don't feel Blackmon is an elite (I consider AJ Green elite) prospect either, but he is certainly better than Crabtree was IMO. Top to bottom however, the Crabtree group provided much better depth and more players that were likely to be NFL producers IMO. Wallace somewhat came out of nowhere so adding him into the mix is a but unfair as it's revisionist in nature. I like this years RBs better but not by much. Richardson is the best prospect of the 2 by far. I like Miller (as a prospect) about as much as I did McCoy at the time. Again with McCoy we are able to be revisionist as I think he's performed much better than anyone had expected back then. I've never liked S. Greene and think both of Wilson/Martin are better prospects. In the end I think this class only offers 3 elite prospects; Luck, RG3 and Richardson. Guys I like and see as very good prospects after that would be Blackmon, Wright, Jeffery and Miller. After that it gets slim for me. The other class offered only 1 elite prospect IMO and it was Stafford but far more very good ones; Crabtree, Harvin, Shady, Maclin, Nicks, Britt, Wells and Pettigrew.

 

[cstu]

No one in their right mind would take a QB #2 in a dynasty rookie draft unless it's a start 2 qb league....no one.

In my hometown dynasty the guy picking at No. 2 has Chad Henne, Matt Moore and Blaine Gabbert as his QBs. If he picks Luck I don't think many will bat an eye.

They should because Blackmon is worth a proven top 5 QB.

I don't know about that. You think anyone holding Rodgers, Newton, Brees, Stafford or Brady are moving them for Blackmon?

Not a chance.

The first four are my top dynasty QB's, but after them I would trade any QB - including a 35 yo Brady - for Blackmon.

I guess you could also say if you thought Luck was going to be a consistent Top 5 QB, why not just take him over Blackmon (if you need a QB) rather than try and trade Blackmon for a Top 5 QB.Personally I may not do it if I was that guy, but I wouldn't see it as a huge mistake either.

A couple reasons - I don't expect Luck to be a top 5 right off the bat and QB's have very little value in 1 QB leagues. Why not take a risk on Blackmon and then trade something else for a QB?

 

[MAC_32]

In the end I think this class only offers 3 elite prospects; Luck, RG3 and Richardson.

You're under estimating Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan White, Blackmon, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, LaMichael James, Chris Polk, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and I'm sure others I'm nothing of off the top of my head. This class is stacked.

 

[duaneok66]

In the end I think this class only offers 3 elite prospects; Luck, RG3 and Richardson.

You're under estimating Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan White, Blackmon, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, LaMichael James, Chris Polk, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and I'm sure others I'm nothing of off the top of my head. This class is stacked.

i think you two have different meanings of the word "elite".

 

[ConnSKINS26]

In the end I think this class only offers 3 elite prospects; Luck, RG3 and Richardson.

You're under estimating Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan White, Blackmon, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, LaMichael James, Chris Polk, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and I'm sure others I'm nothing of off the top of my head. This class is stacked.

I'd like to draft most of those guys, but most of them aren't elite prospects. As in, superlative talent. Having guys like Polk, Fleener, Allen, Sanu, and especially White and James listed as "elite" is a farce. Wright, Floyd, Blackmon, Miller, and Martin you can at least make arguments for being elite prospects.

 

[Rushmore]

I kept scrolling down waiting to see Polk.

 

[moderated]

In the end I think this class only offers 3 elite prospects; Luck, RG3 and Richardson.

You're under estimating Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan White, Blackmon, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, LaMichael James, Chris Polk, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and I'm sure others I'm nothing of off the top of my head. This class is stacked.

I'd like to draft most of those guys, but most of them aren't elite prospects. As in, superlative talent. Having guys like Polk, Fleener, Allen, Sanu, and especially White and James listed as "elite" is a farce. Wright, Floyd, Blackmon, Miller, and Martin you can at least make arguments for being elite prospects.

Every class before the combine/nfl draft has people calling it the deepest and best ever.Then a lot of the guys underperform at the combine and free fall in the nfl draft.This class is good, but not stacked with elite talentQb's - 2 super studs then blahRb's - 1 sure stud, then maybe one more drafted in round 1. After that a few 2nd/3rd roundersWr's - pretty solid, 3-4 1st rounders, then a few more in the 2nd/3rd roundAfter all is said and done rookie drafts will be decent through pick 10 or so, then it will be crapshoot central like it is every year.Better then average, but in no way is this class special and significantly better then most others.

 

[jurb26]

In the end I think this class only offers 3 elite prospects; Luck, RG3 and Richardson.

You're under estimating Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan White, Blackmon, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, LaMichael James, Chris Polk, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and I'm sure others I'm nothing of off the top of my head. This class is stacked.

I don't think I am but if you really feel that way I suggest you trade for as many 1st and 2nd round picks as you can possibly get your hands on. Personally, I think I'm a good bit higher on at least 2 of those players (Wright and Miller) than most people. I still don't think they are elite prospects.

 

[jurb26]

In the end I think this class only offers 3 elite prospects; Luck, RG3 and Richardson.

You're under estimating Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan White, Blackmon, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, LaMichael James, Chris Polk, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and I'm sure others I'm nothing of off the top of my head. This class is stacked.

I'd like to draft most of those guys, but most of them aren't elite prospects. As in, superlative talent. Having guys like Polk, Fleener, Allen, Sanu, and especially White and James listed as "elite" is a farce. Wright, Floyd, Blackmon, Miller, and Martin you can at least make arguments for being elite prospects.

Every class before the combine/nfl draft has people calling it the deepest and best ever.Then a lot of the guys underperform at the combine and free fall in the nfl draft.This class is good, but not stacked with elite talentQb's - 2 super studs then blahRb's - 1 sure stud, then maybe one more drafted in round 1. After that a few 2nd/3rd roundersWr's - pretty solid, 3-4 1st rounders, then a few more in the 2nd/3rd roundAfter all is said and done rookie drafts will be decent through pick 10 or so, then it will be crapshoot central like it is every year.Better then average, but in no way is this class special and significantly better then most others.

I agree. It seems this time of year people can really get carried away with rookie expectations. I try to stay more realistic and I think your assessment is spot on.

 

[Concept Coop]

If we lived in a magical world where all QBs maintained their level of play until age 36 and then spontaneously combusted, Drew Brees would have double the career left in front of him, and since he's more valuable on a per-season basis, I don't think it'd be a stretch to say he's 2.5-3 times as valuable as Brady. I think Drew Brees has as much career left in front of him as, say, Arian Foster.

Drew Brees is old, for his position. Arian Foster is young for his position. And in no way is Drew Brees worth 2x Tom Bradys. When we look at career VBD - Brees takes a hit, compared to other QBs. Foster is probably nuetral, if not deserving of a boost, by the time the season starts. All VBD is not created equal, especially once we bring trade value into the conversation. I wouldn't blame anyone not willing to trade Drew Brees for a top 3 pick. He is safer. But put me on board for the elite RB/WR (Blackmon/Richardson) prospect over the 32 YO QB.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Drew Brees is old, for his position. Arian Foster is young for his position.

What are you trying to say here?Brees will be 33 next season - that's 3 seasons before he will be playing in his age 36 season. The "elite" QBs like Warner and Favre played at a high level beyond that age - but at worst he should still be a top level QB until then. Foster will turn 26 before next season starts - that's 3 full seasons before he will be playing in his age 29 season. Some RBs have played very well a few years beyond that some RBs tailed off tremendously at about that age.Seems they both have about the same number of top years left and RBs in general have fallen off a cliff much faster.

 

[Concept Coop]

Drew Brees is old, for his position. Arian Foster is young for his position.

What are you trying to say here?Brees will be 33 next season - that's 3 seasons before he will be playing in his age 36 season. The "elite" QBs like Warner and Favre played at a high level beyond that age - but at worst he should still be a top level QB until then. Foster will turn 26 before next season starts - that's 3 full seasons before he will be playing in his age 29 season. Some RBs have played very well a few years beyond that some RBs tailed off tremendously at about that age.Seems they both have about the same number of top years left and RBs in general have fallen off a cliff much faster.

Even in dynasty, the concept of value over replacement holds true. That is why 5 years of RB 1 production is worth A LOT more than 5 years of QB1 production, assuming all things are equal.In the pool of relevant QBs, Drew Brees is old. In the pool of relevant RBs, Arian Fotser is young or middle of the road.

 

[MAC_32]

Apparently I shouldn't have quoted the elite post. My bad. Because you're not taking it the way I meant it.

This class is the best one I've seen since '08 as far as fantasy is concerned. And, no, I didn't saying the same thing the last 2 oir 3 years, I've been pretty lukewarm on those classes and traded picks accordingly. It's why I haveso many this year, I kept trading back. I think I'm going to reap the rewards like I did in 2008.

 

[EBF]

Minor note:

LSU WR Rueben Randle hadn't declared when I put this list together. Now that he's in the pool, I would put him somewhere in the middle of the third tier. He never looked spectacular at LSU. On the other hand, he put up decent stats this past season despite the fact that their quarterbacks were awful. I still don't think he has obvious #1 WR upside.

 

[jurb26]

Minor note:LSU WR Rueben Randle hadn't declared when I put this list together. Now that he's in the pool, I would put him somewhere in the middle of the third tier. He never looked spectacular at LSU. On the other hand, he put up decent stats this past season despite the fact that their quarterbacks were awful. I still don't think he has obvious #1 WR upside.

Randle will likely be drafted in the late first or early second round. He makes the WR class better and should be in the top 5 of the WR prospects IMO.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Minor note:LSU WR Rueben Randle hadn't declared when I put this list together. Now that he's in the pool, I would put him somewhere in the middle of the third tier. He never looked spectacular at LSU. On the other hand, he put up decent stats this past season despite the fact that their quarterbacks were awful. I still don't think he has obvious #1 WR upside.

Randle will likely be drafted in the late first or early second round. He makes the WR class better and should be in the top 5 of the WR prospects IMO.

I don't see that happening at all, but I've certainly been wrong before.

 

[jurb26]

Minor note:LSU WR Rueben Randle hadn't declared when I put this list together. Now that he's in the pool, I would put him somewhere in the middle of the third tier. He never looked spectacular at LSU. On the other hand, he put up decent stats this past season despite the fact that their quarterbacks were awful. I still don't think he has obvious #1 WR upside.

Randle will likely be drafted in the late first or early second round. He makes the WR class better and should be in the top 5 of the WR prospects IMO.

I don't see that happening at all, but I've certainly been wrong before.

You'll be wrong again. Same goes for of course.

 

[J-Dawg]

I have trouble trying to get a feel for Randle just because his QB play was so bad at times. He's definitely talented and was a 5 star recruit for a reason but I don't think he's developed an awful lot in his time at LSU. He might be a guy who flies under the radar and ends up as a 3rd rounder who "comes out of nowhere" and puts up a 1000 yard season but he could just as easily end up being just another guy on a team. He's got great size and has made some plays but seems to lack concentration at times as well. Not sure I'm ready to rank him among the top 5 WRs in this class but I think he slots into that second grouping but has a chance at moving up depending on combine performance and landing spot in the draft.

 

[loose circuits]

i traded Desean Jackson and got Josh freeman. I may have sold low on Desean, but I think he's a one trick pony. Maybe he ends up in a better spot, but I like Freeman's upside just as much

 

[BeTheMatch]

i traded Desean Jackson and got Josh freeman. I may have sold low on Desean, but I think he's a one trick pony. Maybe he ends up in a better spot, but I like Freeman's upside just as much

That right there is some good info on this year's rookie class!

 

[loose circuits]

i traded Desean Jackson and got Josh freeman. I may have sold low on Desean, but I think he's a one trick pony. Maybe he ends up in a better spot, but I like Freeman's upside just as much

That right there is some good info on this year's rookie class!

I must have posted this in the wrong thread and thought I was in 2012 dynasty trade thread...sorry to everyonejust now noticed as I went in the thread to see if anyone commented and it wasn't there...

 

[Synesthesia]

So when people want to start saying they would trade guys like Brees or Brady for rookies, without batting an eye, that seems like a mistake. What's the old saying? A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush? I think we have seen enough of both these QBs over the years to know that, barring a significant injury (and that can be something that happens to any player), that Brees and Brady are the types of players...on the types of teams...that can have 4-5 more top 5 years. That is A LOT to trade for a guy that hasn't proven anything. Sure, he might be Fitz. But he might also be Braylon Edwards..or worse, Rashaun Woods. With Brees and Brady, we know they ARE Brees and Brady. I agree that in a dynasty you have to consider age, but I think one of the biggest mistakes people make in dynasty leagues is to get caught up in the "Logan's Run" syndrome. Everyone wants their team to be full of 26 year old studs and they sell off their steady, great players too soon. A 32-34 year old QB CAN be a caution sign, but for anyone watching NFL football, if you can't see that a 34 year old Tom Brady is a stark different thing than a 34 year old Donovan McNabb, then you may be playing the wrong game. There really is no reason to debate that Brady won't be a top QB in this league until the time comes that he decides to leave.

From age 24 to age 34 (11 seasons), Tom Brady put up a grand total of 4 top-5 finishes. Expecting 4-5 more before he retires is something of a stretch. The immortal Brett Favre put up 6 top-5 finishes prior to 34, and only 2 after. Dan Marino had 8 before, and 0 after. Peyton Manning put up a mind-boggling 10 top-5 seasons by age 34, and he might not ever play a single down after age 35. Even Warren Moon, possibly the most ageless QB of all time, only managed 3 top-5 finishes after his 35th birthday.I think it's too easy to forget that things change fast in the NFL. Players look like unstoppable studs right up until the day that they don't anymore. That day often comes without any warning. Players get injured (more frequently as they get older), physical abilities erode (more quickly as they get older), and stuff just happens. While it's inconceivable to imagine Tom Brady falling off a cliff in the next 3 years... it was just as inconceivable 3 years ago to think that about Peyton Manning.Tom Brady is very old for a QB. Unless I had a very specific type of team (one with legitimate championship hopes and a quickly-closing window- say a team filled with guys like Steve Smith, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson, and Antonio Gates), I'd be looking to move Brady to anyone willing to give me strong value in return.

 

[Synesthesia]

Drew Brees is old, for his position. Arian Foster is young for his position. And in no way is Drew Brees worth 2x Tom Bradys. When we look at career VBD - Brees takes a hit, compared to other QBs. Foster is probably nuetral, if not deserving of a boost, by the time the season starts. All VBD is not created equal, especially once we bring trade value into the conversation. I wouldn't blame anyone not willing to trade Drew Brees for a top 3 pick. He is safer. But put me on board for the elite RB/WR (Blackmon/Richardson) prospect over the 32 YO QB.

Brees is old for his position, but Foster isn't young for his- he's about average. But Brees's position has a much longer tail than Foster's. Anecdotally, I'd guess that Brees can probably keep on keeping on up through age 36, and Foster could probably be expected to remain a stud up through age 29. That's 4 years for both players.I also stand by the "Brees is worth 2x Tom Brady" claim. At this stage, I would bet on Brees producing twice as many high-quality fantasy seasons as Tom Brady. I would bet on him producing about twice as much VBD over the remainder of his career. As you said, Brees is old for his position, and Brady is substantially older still. At the far right end of the distribution, small absolute differences in career length add up to large relative differences.

Even in dynasty, the concept of value over replacement holds true. That is why 5 years of RB 1 production is worth A LOT more than 5 years of QB1 production, assuming all things are equal.

This would be a much more compelling argument if I had said "Drew Brees is as valuable as Arian Foster". I did not. Nor would I, because I do not believe it. What I said was "Drew Brees has as much career left in front of him as, say, Arian Foster."4 RB years might be more valuable than 4 QB years, but they are not *LONGER* than 4 QB years. A pound of lead might be a lot more dense than a pound of feathers, but they both still only weigh a pound.

 

[jurb26]

From age 24 to age 34 (11 seasons), Tom Brady put up a grand total of 4 top-5 finishes. Expecting 4-5 more before he retires is something of a stretch. The immortal Brett Favre put up 6 top-5 finishes prior to 34, and only 2 after. Dan Marino had 8 before, and 0 after. Peyton Manning put up a mind-boggling 10 top-5 seasons by age 34, and he might not ever play a single down after age 35. Even Warren Moon, possibly the most ageless QB of all time, only managed 3 top-5 finishes after his 35th birthday.I think it's too easy to forget that things change fast in the NFL. Players look like unstoppable studs right up until the day that they don't anymore. That day often comes without any warning. Players get injured (more frequently as they get older), physical abilities erode (more quickly as they get older), and stuff just happens. While it's inconceivable to imagine Tom Brady falling off a cliff in the next 3 years... it was just as inconceivable 3 years ago to think that about Peyton Manning.Tom Brady is very old for a QB. Unless I had a very specific type of team (one with legitimate championship hopes and a quickly-closing window- say a team filled with guys like Steve Smith, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson, and Antonio Gates), I'd be looking to move Brady to anyone willing to give me strong value in return.

Why only look at top 5 finishes? How many top 10 finishes did these players have over that same time line? Personally, I'd have a very hard time justifying a trade for a player like Blackmon when I'm giving up a known top 10 player or top 5 player at their position. Just for fun though I looked at the top QBs in one of my leagues and here they are with their ages listed;Rogers, 28Brees, 33Brady, 34Stafford, 23Newton, 22Romo, 31E. Manning, 31Ryan, 26Rivers, 30Vick, 31Of the guys listed there are at least 4 that would be completely of limits to almost any trade offer let alone an offer for an unknown and nonelite prospect like Blackmon. Those guys would be; Rogers, Stafford, Newton and Ryan. They are far too young and are already at or near the top of their player category to move with out it being a blockbuster deal. The only ones I would probably realistically look to trade would be Romo, E. Manning and Vick. Although I would move these guys, I would clearly expect more than the likes of Blackmon in the deal. In between guys that would probably be difficult to decide on would be Brees, Brady and Rivers. I find it hard to believe that Brady and Brees don't each have at least 1 more top 5 season in them. Maybe the odds aren't good for 2 more, but I certainly think it's a possibility. Rivers is probably the toughest one of the group because he is coming off a a really bad year, by his standards. Even that bad year was a top 10 season, which is why I'm asking the question at the beginning of my post. I find it hard to believe that Rivers won't continue on to produce at least 3 more top 10 seasons but I'm not sure if he will have any top 5. So, how much are those top 10 seasons worth? Personally, I think they are worth far more than Blackmon but if this was AJ Green coming out or Fitz (guys I truly saw as elite prospects) then I might do it.

 

[cstu]

So, how much are those top 10 seasons worth? Personally, I think they are worth far more than Blackmon but if this was AJ Green coming out or Fitz (guys I truly saw as elite prospects) then I might do it.

Here's the problem in 1 QB leagues, older QB's are relatively easy to acquire once teams go 0-3 and start looking towards next year. Brady for example will be 35 in August and if his owner starts off poorly he'll take Blackmon from you in a heartbeat. Even if you don't like Blackmon you are better off taking him or trading him and trying to acquire a good QB during the season.

 

[jurb26]

So, how much are those top 10 seasons worth? Personally, I think they are worth far more than Blackmon but if this was AJ Green coming out or Fitz (guys I truly saw as elite prospects) then I might do it.

Here's the problem in 1 QB leagues, older QB's are relatively easy to acquire once teams go 0-3 and start looking towards next year. Brady for example will be 35 in August and if his owner starts off poorly he'll take Blackmon from you in a heartbeat. Even if you don't like Blackmon you are better off taking him or trading him and trying to acquire a good QB during the season.

The problem with this is that not many teams with Brady are ever going to start 0-3.

 

[clwn_posse]

What recent NFL backs would you compare Lamar Miller's running style and talent to? I can't place him, maybe Fred Jackson style wise?

 

[BeTheMatch]

What recent NFL backs would you compare Lamar Miller's running style and talent to? I can't place him, maybe Fred Jackson style wise?

It's probably because of the school, but I've seen more than a few comparisons made to Portis.

 

[cstu]

So, how much are those top 10 seasons worth? Personally, I think they are worth far more than Blackmon but if this was AJ Green coming out or Fitz (guys I truly saw as elite prospects) then I might do it.

Here's the problem in 1 QB leagues, older QB's are relatively easy to acquire once teams go 0-3 and start looking towards next year. Brady for example will be 35 in August and if his owner starts off poorly he'll take Blackmon from you in a heartbeat. Even if you don't like Blackmon you are better off taking him or trading him and trying to acquire a good QB during the season.

The problem with this is that not many teams with Brady are ever going to start 0-3.

Brady was just an example but it still applies to the other over 30 QB's you listed.

 

[cstu]

What recent NFL backs would you compare Lamar Miller's running style and talent to? I can't place him, maybe Fred Jackson style wise?

It's probably because of the school, but I've seen more than a few comparisons made to Portis.

I think that's a fair comparison, but Miller lacks the fierceness when he runs that Portis had. He reminds me of a less elusive Reggie Bush but a better inside runner.

 

[BeTheMatch]

What recent NFL backs would you compare Lamar Miller's running style and talent to? I can't place him, maybe Fred Jackson style wise?

It's probably because of the school, but I've seen more than a few comparisons made to Portis.

I think that's a fair comparison, but Miller lacks the fierceness when he runs that Portis had. He reminds me of a less elusive Reggie Bush but a better inside runner.

Portis was an absolute beast, even though he wasn't the biggest guy.

 

[jurb26]

What recent NFL backs would you compare Lamar Miller's running style and talent to? I can't place him, maybe Fred Jackson style wise?

It's probably because of the school, but I've seen more than a few comparisons made to Portis.

I think that's a fair comparison, but Miller lacks the fierceness when he runs that Portis had. He reminds me of a less elusive Reggie Bush but a better inside runner.

Portis was an absolute beast, even though he wasn't the biggest guy.

Portis is the EXACT comparison that comes to mind when I watch them in college. Portis didn't display this "fierceness" you are talking about until he went to Wash and had to reformulate his running style to fin the offense. Miller is a lot like Portis. He has great feet, picks through traffic to find the hole in the same fashion and runs with great balance and burst.