[DYNASTY] 2012 Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)

[Xue]

Anyone else feel Ronnie Hillman and Robert Turbin could be pleasant surprises? Hillman has a nice combination of speed and power and Turbin had a nice comeback year following his ACL tear in 2010 by rushing for 1500+ yds and 19 scores.

Some people love Turbin, but I haven't seen it. Solid backup, but not a starter.Hillman intrigues me. I think smaller backs are often under valued because they're just that, small, even if they have the bulk of a 'prototypical back.' This is why I love Doug Martin. Hillman's a little on the small side though, he doesn't have that bulk. I want to read somewhere that there's room on his frame to add 10-15 lbs without effecting his game. If I read that I'll be more interested. He's a gamer, but if he can't add weight he's a part 2 of a committee at best.

Hillman and Turbin are two sleepers I really like. Hillman has stated that he plans to add 10lbs. He did a lot of inside running out of Pro sets, so he has that going for him.Turbin didn't look 100% in 2011 even though the numbers were good. I think he'll look much better 2 years removed from his ACL tear.

 

[Gandalf]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52Hakeem Nicks - 4.51Dwayne Bowe - 4.51Brandon Marshall - 4.52Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower. I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.

I would love it if Blackmon slid to the end of the first round so the pats could draft him. I know it would never happen but I can dream right? From a fantasy perspective, I think as long as he does not get drafted by Jax he will produce solid numbers. His floor is pretty high in my opinion.

 

[JohnnyU]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes?

I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmon

Luck

Wright

Martin

Griffin

Miller

Floyd

I might also throw David Wilson into that second tier.

BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52

Hakeem Nicks - 4.51

Dwayne Bowe - 4.51

Brandon Marshall - 4.52

Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower.

I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.

I would love it if Blackmon slid to the end of the first round so the pats could draft him. I know it would never happen but I can dream right? From a fantasy perspective, I think as long as he does not get drafted by Jax he will produce solid numbers. His floor is pretty high in my opinion.

Didn't they say the same thing about Crabtree? He hasn't come nowhere near the hype either.

 

[EBF]

Crabtree has been a solid player when healthy. He had 880 yards last season, which is pretty good considering the conservative offense and the fact that he was hobbled by injuries at the start of the season. He caught 63% of his targets and was actually a top 15 FF WR over the final 8 weeks of the season.

I know I was one of the people who bought the Crabtree hype, but with the benefit of hindsight I feel pretty comfortable saying that Blackmon is a better athlete. Crab is a really good receiver, but he has no special athletic qualities. Blackmon is a more muscular, slightly more explosive version of the same player. He should be an effective #1 in the NFL.

 

[JohnnyU]

Crabtree has been a solid player when healthy. He had 880 yards last season, which is pretty good considering the conservative offense and the fact that he was hobbled by injuries at the start of the season. He caught 63% of his targets and was actually a top 15 FF WR over the final 8 weeks of the season.

I know I was one of the people who bought the Crabtree hype, but with the benefit of hindsight I feel pretty comfortable saying that Blackmon is a better athlete. Crab is a really good receiver, but he has no special athletic qualities. Blackmon is a more muscular, slightly more explosive version of the same player. He should be an effective #1 in the NFL.

 

[duaneok66]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52Hakeem Nicks - 4.51Dwayne Bowe - 4.51Brandon Marshall - 4.52Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower. I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.

good point, but weren't all of those guys drafted mid 1st or later??

 

[EBF]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52Hakeem Nicks - 4.51Dwayne Bowe - 4.51Brandon Marshall - 4.52Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower. I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.

good point, but weren't all of those guys drafted mid 1st or later??

I don't care if Blackmon is the 1st pick or the 31st pick. He looks like a 1000 yard NFL guy to me.

 

[duaneok66]

I am just looking at it from a draft perspective - is he worth a top 5 pick if those other guys weren't rated that high?? How does he compare to the other players projected in the top ten? I am not doubting his talent at all.

 

[JohnnyU]

I am just looking at it from a draft perspective - is he worth a top 5 pick if those other guys weren't rated that high?? How does he compare to the other players projected in the top ten? I am not doubting his talent at all.

I am doubting his talent.

 

[duaneok66]

I am just looking at it from a draft perspective - is he worth a top 5 pick if those other guys weren't rated that high?? How does he compare to the other players projected in the top ten? I am not doubting his talent at all.

I am doubting his talent.

Let me clarify. I am not doubting his talent as a 1st round pick comparable to the other guys mentioned earlier - however, he doesn't look like a top 5 pick to me.

 

[DexterDew]

the knock i am hearing about Blackmon is that most of catches come within 10 yards of the LoS... could be because the CB is giving up such a big cushion that it is a case of taking what they give

having typed that, i agree that he appears to be a WR in the mold of Dez/Nicks/Bowe (Marshall is 6'4"), and could be WR1 in 2-3 years if he lands in a good situation/QB

 

[treat88]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52Hakeem Nicks - 4.51Dwayne Bowe - 4.51Brandon Marshall - 4.52Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower. I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.

good point, but weren't all of those guys drafted mid 1st or later??

I don't care if Blackmon is the 1st pick or the 31st pick. He looks like a 1000 yard NFL guy to me.

Agree with the Bowe comp, but I don't think he has near the natural body control and athleticism of Bryant or Nicks nor the physical presence of Marshall.As the best possession/red zone threat receiver in this class he will certainly get selected fairly early, but I don't believe he is a future #1 and I do think he has a fair share of risk involved.In many classes I would expect him to be out of the top 20 picks.

 

[JohnnyU]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52Hakeem Nicks - 4.51Dwayne Bowe - 4.51Brandon Marshall - 4.52Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower. I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.

good point, but weren't all of those guys drafted mid 1st or later??

I don't care if Blackmon is the 1st pick or the 31st pick. He looks like a 1000 yard NFL guy to me.

Agree with the Bowe comp, but I don't think he has near the natural body control and athleticism of Bryant or Nicks nor the physical presence of Marshall.As the best possession/red zone threat receiver in this class he will certainly get selected fairly early, but I don't believe he is a future #1 and I do think he has a fair share of risk involved.In many classes I would expect him to be out of the top 20 picks.

Michael Crabtree part 2. Kind of reminds me how Crabtree was used at Texas Tech.

 

[treat88]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52Hakeem Nicks - 4.51Dwayne Bowe - 4.51Brandon Marshall - 4.52Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower. I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.

good point, but weren't all of those guys drafted mid 1st or later??

I don't care if Blackmon is the 1st pick or the 31st pick. He looks like a 1000 yard NFL guy to me.

Agree with the Bowe comp, but I don't think he has near the natural body control and athleticism of Bryant or Nicks nor the physical presence of Marshall.As the best possession/red zone threat receiver in this class he will certainly get selected fairly early, but I don't believe he is a future #1 and I do think he has a fair share of risk involved.In many classes I would expect him to be out of the top 20 picks.

Michael Crabtree part 2. Not because of where he played.

I do think he has far more natural hands than Crabs, Bowe, or Marshall. Equivalent with Bryant. Behind Nicks.He's a good player, but I question investing an early first (top 15) in him.

 

[JohnnyU]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52Hakeem Nicks - 4.51Dwayne Bowe - 4.51Brandon Marshall - 4.52Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower. I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.

good point, but weren't all of those guys drafted mid 1st or later??

I don't care if Blackmon is the 1st pick or the 31st pick. He looks like a 1000 yard NFL guy to me.

Agree with the Bowe comp, but I don't think he has near the natural body control and athleticism of Bryant or Nicks nor the physical presence of Marshall.As the best possession/red zone threat receiver in this class he will certainly get selected fairly early, but I don't believe he is a future #1 and I do think he has a fair share of risk involved.In many classes I would expect him to be out of the top 20 picks.

Michael Crabtree part 2. Not because of where he played.

I do think he has far more natural hands than Crabs, Bowe, or Marshall. Equivalent with Bryant. Behind Nicks.He's a good player, but I question investing an early first (top 15) in him.

Earl Bennett has good hands too.

 

[EBF]

Agree with the Bowe comp, but I don't think he has near the natural body control and athleticism of Bryant or Nicks nor the physical presence of Marshall.

That's where we disagree. Dez is more vertically explosive, but I think Blackmon actually moves better laterally. I don't think he's any worse than Nicks in that department either. I agree that he's not as imposing as Marshall. The guy is very strong for his height though and he has a big catch radius because of his long arms. I'm very curious to see how much he weighs. He looks like he could be 215-220, which would be a good weight for him.I just don't see the movement concerns with him. The guy is very smooth and very nimble. A picture is worth a thousand words:http://youtu.be/voprccSVyz4?t=1m16s

 

[Faust]

Video: Blackmon the next Megatron? Charles Davis answers questions on the star draft prospect.

 

[JohnnyU]

It's not an exact science and I won't pretend to know the answer like some, but weren't we having this exact conversation about Michael Crabtree? Hell, he may end up as good as Nicks, or he could end up as good as Crabtree.

 

[ZWK]

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon had a lot of big gains at Oklahoma State. In his last 2 seasons, he had a 40+ yard reception in 15 of his 25 games, which is more than Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Crabtree, Nicks, Britt, and everyone else I've looked at besides Jon Baldwin & Titus Young (who are basically tied with him, at 16/26 & 16/27). I haven't studied tape of him so maybe this statistic is misleading in some way, but his numbers suggest that he's a downfield threat.

 

[treat88]

Agree with the Bowe comp, but I don't think he has near the natural body control and athleticism of Bryant or Nicks nor the physical presence of Marshall.

That's where we disagree. Dez is more vertically explosive, but I think Blackmon actually moves better laterally. I don't think he's any worse than Nicks in that department either. I agree that he's not as imposing as Marshall. The guy is very strong for his height though and he has a big catch radius because of his long arms. I'm very curious to see how much he weighs. He looks like he could be 215-220, which would be a good weight for him.I just don't see the movement concerns with him. The guy is very smooth and very nimble. A picture is worth a thousand words:http://youtu.be/voprccSVyz4?t=1m16s

It is overstating my take to suggest he has "movement concerns", but different eyes...different takes. That's fair.The real point of chiming in on the discussion on my part is to suggest that he does compare far more closely with the players we are mentioning who were all late 1st round types. Marshall obviously later.I think he's a very talented player, but a poor investment as early as he seems to be projected, which is consistently in the top 8 range. Just not worth that to me given the opportunity cost.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I am just looking at it from a draft perspective - is he worth a top 5 pick if those other guys weren't rated that high?? How does he compare to the other players projected in the top ten? I am not doubting his talent at all.

I am doubting his talent.

So you're not going to take him at 1.03 in HA1? Good to know.

 

[EBF]

I think value over replacement comes into play, especially for teams like St. Louis, Washington, and Cleveland. If you're sitting there with a top 10 pick and you've got NOTHING at WR, is it a reach to take a guy who looks like the next Nicks or Boldin? I don't think so.

 

[MAC_32]

It's not an exact science and I won't pretend to know the answer like some, but weren't we having this exact conversation about Michael Crabtree? Hell, he may end up as good as Nicks, or he could end up as good as Crabtree.

Crabtree has foot, diva, and work ethic problems. Blackmon may be a diva, but he does not have work ethic problems and best to my knowledge he doesn't have any health issues to be concerned about.

 

[finito]

It's not an exact science and I won't pretend to know the answer like some, but weren't we having this exact conversation about Michael Crabtree? Hell, he may end up as good as Nicks, or he could end up as good as Crabtree.

Crabtree has foot, diva, and work ethic problems. Blackmon may be a diva, but he does not have work ethic problems and best to my knowledge he doesn't have any health issues to be concerned about.

Plus Crabtree produced like a top 15 WR the second half of the season this year (when his foot was healthy). I don't know that we've seen the best of Crabtree yet.

 

[treat88]

I think value over replacement comes into play, especially for teams like St. Louis, Washington, and Cleveland. If you're sitting there with a top 10 pick and you've got NOTHING at WR, is it a reach to take a guy who looks like the next Nicks or Boldin? I don't think so.

Agreed. The bolded is absolutely my point.In STL's/CLE cases specifically, sitting at #2/#4 I would absolutely take the far rarer prospect in Griffin (CLE), Claiborne or Kalil at positions that are arguably just as big a need as WR.

At #6, I'd probably say the same thing and apply it to Tannehill, Reiff, or Kirkpatrick.

Just think those positions and prospects are more foundational needs for the respective teams and would prefer to pair them with a later WR vs. Blackmon and a later prospect at those positions.

Additionally your observation would read much differently if it read "a guy who looks like the next Crabtree/Bowe/Bryant/Britt" who, again, I personally think are better comps than Nicks. Boldin, who outside height/weight I see as a very different type of WR, would be debatable.

Lots of different ways to skin a cat. Personally, I just don't see his value being in that top 15 range, doesn't mean he's not a good player.

 

[JohnnyU]

I am just looking at it from a draft perspective - is he worth a top 5 pick if those other guys weren't rated that high?? How does he compare to the other players projected in the top ten? I am not doubting his talent at all.

I am doubting his talent.

So you're not going to take him at 1.03 in HA1? Good to know.

From what I know he will go 1.2 in HA1. I guarantee you he won't go 1.2 in HA3

 

[loose circuits]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I think most people would say top 10 with Jeffery included.I don't think Criner, Joe Adams, and Ruben Randle are that far off those guys either...some would say Sanu, Mayock says Givens...

 

[jurb26]

I think value over replacement comes into play, especially for teams like St. Louis, Washington, and Cleveland. If you're sitting there with a top 10 pick and you've got NOTHING at WR, is it a reach to take a guy who looks like the next Nicks or Boldin? I don't think so.

Agreed. The bolded is absolutely my point.In STL's/CLE cases specifically, sitting at #2/#4 I would absolutely take the far rarer prospect in Griffin (CLE), Claiborne or Kalil at positions that are arguably just as big a need as WR.

At #6, I'd probably say the same thing and apply it to Tannehill, Reiff, or Kirkpatrick.

Just think those positions and prospects are more foundational needs for the respective teams and would prefer to pair them with a later WR vs. Blackmon and a later prospect at those positions.

Additionally your observation would read much differently if it read "a guy who looks like the next Crabtree/Bowe/Bryant/Britt" who, again, I personally think are better comps than Nicks. Boldin, who outside height/weight I see as a very different type of WR, would be debatable.

Lots of different ways to skin a cat. Personally, I just don't see his value being in that top 15 range, doesn't mean he's not a good player.

I agree. Teams drafting as high as St. L and Clev have several holes on their roster and need to simply upgrade the talent pool. I don't see why so many people simply look at things and say, "they need a WR so they will take the best one." They have several needs and Balckmon simply isn't the best player available. Personally, I don't have Blackmon as a top 10 player and I do think it would be a pretty awful reach to take him at #2. That doesn't mean he isn't a good player. It just means there are better options. In reality I think St. L will be trading out of that pick or taking Kalil.

 

[thegiants]

There are 26 rookies on the PGA TOUR in 2012. This feature will provide a rolling ranking throughout the season. The Rookie of the Year is voted by PGA TOUR members that make at least 15 starts.

Six of 12 rookies made the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open but none of 20 in the last two editions has cracked the top 10. John Huh parlayed his top-10 exemption (via the Farmers Insurance Open) into a second consecutive low-rookie performance with a share of 12th place at TPC Scottsdale

 

[identikit]

There are 26 rookies on the PGA TOUR in 2012. This feature will provide a rolling ranking throughout the season. The Rookie of the Year is voted by PGA TOUR members that make at least 15 starts.Six of 12 rookies made the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open but none of 20 in the last two editions has cracked the top 10. John Huh parlayed his top-10 exemption (via the Farmers Insurance Open) into a second consecutive low-rookie performance with a share of 12th place at TPC Scottsdale

Excellent.

 

[JohnnyU]

There are 26 rookies on the PGA TOUR in 2012. This feature will provide a rolling ranking throughout the season. The Rookie of the Year is voted by PGA TOUR members that make at least 15 starts.Six of 12 rookies made the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open but none of 20 in the last two editions has cracked the top 10. John Huh parlayed his top-10 exemption (via the Farmers Insurance Open) into a second consecutive low-rookie performance with a share of 12th place at TPC Scottsdale

How well did these guys do at the NFL combine?

 

[identikit]

per Joe Everett from rookiedraft.com:

WR Alshon Jeffery, #SouthCarolina is training at St Vincents here in Indy. Sources say he's weighing 249lbs + running a 4.88 Forty#NFLDraft

Not good.

 

[BeTheMatch]

per Joe Everett from rookiedraft.com:

WR Alshon Jeffery, #SouthCarolina is training at St Vincents here in Indy. Sources say he's weighing 249lbs + running a 4.88 Forty#NFLDraft

Not good.

 

[identikit]

from Joe Everett of Rookiedraft..com:

WR Alshon Jeffery, #SouthCarolina is training at St Vincents here in Indy. Sources say he's weighing 249lbs + running a 4.88 Forty

I also had to ask my guy again. That is NO typo.

 

[identikit]

per Joe Everett from rookiedraft.com:

WR Alshon Jeffery, #SouthCarolina is training at St Vincents here in Indy. Sources say he's weighing 249lbs + running a 4.88 Forty#NFLDraft

Not good.

No kidding.

"Not good' was my comment not Joe's.

 

[finito]

per Joe Everett from rookiedraft.com:

WR Alshon Jeffery, #SouthCarolina is training at St Vincents here in Indy. Sources say he's weighing 249lbs + running a 4.88 Forty#NFLDraft

Not good.

That's Embarrassing. I mean really. 4.88?!

 

[JohnnyU]

per Joe Everett from rookiedraft.com:

WR Alshon Jeffery, #SouthCarolina is training at St Vincents here in Indy. Sources say he's weighing 249lbs + running a 4.88 Forty#NFLDraft

Not good.

That's Embarrassing. I mean really. 4.88?!

He's hoping to be able to get separation from those CFL corners.

 

[finito]

per Joe Everett from rookiedraft.com:

WR Alshon Jeffery, #SouthCarolina is training at St Vincents here in Indy. Sources say he's weighing 249lbs + running a 4.88 Forty#NFLDraft

Not good.

That's Embarrassing. I mean really. 4.88?!

He's hoping to be able to get separation from those CFL corners.

Big Mike Williams is like "Man, that guy is slow."

 

[identikit]

another from Joe Everett:

Got it from 1 of the guys working there. Texting him now to confirm exactly "when" this occurred.

 

[identikit]

per Michael Schottey:

Confirmed...Alshon Jeffery has been in Tampa since January 8th. IF he ran a 4.88 in Indianapolis, it was over a month ago.

 

[identikit]

Just gets murkier and murkier...

Benjamin Wright of NFLDraftMonster,com:



Alshon Jeffrey 4.88 time, is outright untrue. Hearing whispers its being floated from his camp, so he blows expectation away at combine.

W/o this rumor if Jeffrey runs a 4.5, he's considered slow, now if he runs a 4.55 he's beating expectation.

 

[Donsmith753]

Just gets murkier and murkier...

Benjamin Wright of NFLDraftMonster,com:



Alshon Jeffrey 4.88 time, is outright untrue. Hearing whispers its being floated from his camp, so he blows expectation away at combine.

W/o this rumor if Jeffrey runs a 4.5, he's considered slow, now if he runs a 4.55 he's beating expectation.

I'm going to try this one with my wife tomorrow.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Just gets murkier and murkier...

Benjamin Wright of NFLDraftMonster,com:



Alshon Jeffrey 4.88 time, is outright untrue. Hearing whispers its being floated from his camp, so he blows expectation away at combine.

W/o this rumor if Jeffrey runs a 4.5, he's considered slow, now if he runs a 4.55 he's beating expectation.

At worst, I see him as a 4.6 guy.That may seem bad, but not with his frame. Think about the Gronk/Finley/Graham's of the world and how fast they really run vs how much the QB puts it in an area where only they can get it.

 

[Concept Coop]

Plus Crabtree produced like a top 15 WR the second half of the season this year (when his foot was healthy). I don't know that we've seen the best of Crabtree yet.

No he didn't. He put up average per target numbers. Below average for a WR1. He is in over his head, when it comes be being the best WR on an NFL team. If opposing teams ever decide they need to shut him down, he will be shut down without much of a fight.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Plus Crabtree produced like a top 15 WR the second half of the season this year (when his foot was healthy). I don't know that we've seen the best of Crabtree yet.

No he didn't. He put up average per target numbers. Below average for a WR1. He is in over his head, when it comes be being the best WR on an NFL team. If opposing teams ever decide they need to shut him down, he will be shut down without much of a fight.

I think harbaugh finally figured out that vernon Davis is the best wr optionCrabtree is a wr2/3 for ffl heavily leaning on wr3

 

[finito]

Plus Crabtree produced like a top 15 WR the second half of the season this year (when his foot was healthy). I don't know that we've seen the best of Crabtree yet.

No he didn't. He put up average per target numbers. Below average for a WR1. He is in over his head, when it comes be being the best WR on an NFL team. If opposing teams ever decide they need to shut him down, he will be shut down without much of a fight.

Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.

 

[Concept Coop]

Plus Crabtree produced like a top 15 WR the second half of the season this year (when his foot was healthy). I don't know that we've seen the best of Crabtree yet.

No he didn't. He put up average per target numbers. Below average for a WR1. He is in over his head, when it comes be being the best WR on an NFL team. If opposing teams ever decide they need to shut him down, he will be shut down without much of a fight.

Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.

His advanced stats give a better image of his season. He didn't make plays. He is not a play-maker at an NFL level. If he can keep getting safe targets at a crazy rate, he can be a boring WR2/3. But the 49ers offensive will suffer if they pretend they don't have a problem at the WR1 spot.

 

[Steed]

Plus Crabtree produced like a top 15 WR the second half of the season this year (when his foot was healthy). I don't know that we've seen the best of Crabtree yet.

No he didn't. He put up average per target numbers. Below average for a WR1. He is in over his head, when it comes be being the best WR on an NFL team. If opposing teams ever decide they need to shut him down, he will be shut down without much of a fight.

Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.

Be careful of these half season splits (ie small sample sizes) especially with below par qb play. Last year Santonio was looking like a top 10 guy after a hot finish.

 

[thegiants]

 

[Hoosier16]

Plus Crabtree produced like a top 15 WR the second half of the season this year (when his foot was healthy). I don't know that we've seen the best of Crabtree yet.

No he didn't. He put up average per target numbers. Below average for a WR1. He is in over his head, when it comes be being the best WR on an NFL team. If opposing teams ever decide they need to shut him down, he will be shut down without much of a fight.

Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.

His advanced stats give a better image of his season. He didn't make plays. He is not a play-maker at an NFL level. If he can keep getting safe targets at a crazy rate, he can be a boring WR2/3. But the 49ers offensive will suffer if they pretend they don't have a problem at the WR1 spot.

What advanced stats?