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How were his Touchdowns? Targets?Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.
I think the problem for the 49ers has clearly been at the QB spot. Even in a "career" year, Alex Smith still didn't reach 3,500 yards and only threw for 17 TDs. This was the first season Smith even looked halfway decent and even in that he was only asked to be a game manager. Crabtree looks like a guy that can make plays when he gets the opportunity to do so. Davis is/can be the true playmaker in that offense anyway - so they don't necessarily need a dominat WR1 (but let's not act like Crabtree has been given a full chance to show he can't be a WR1).His advanced stats give a better image of his season. He didn't make plays. He is not a play-maker at an NFL level. If he can keep getting safe targets at a crazy rate, he can be a boring WR2/3. But the 49ers offensive will suffer if they pretend they don't have a problem at the WR1 spot.Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.
advancednflstats.comWhat advanced stats?His advanced stats give a better image of his season. He didn't make plays. He is not a play-maker at an NFL level. If he can keep getting safe targets at a crazy rate, he can be a boring WR2/3. But the 49ers offensive will suffer if they pretend they don't have a problem at the WR1 spot.Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.
I don't want to derail the thread anymore than I have, so I'll address this point and quit.Alex Smith is plenty capable of getting the ball to the places where Crabtree can get open. This isn't Larry dealing with Anderson/Hall. Crabtree didn't make plays. Crabtree had a perfect opportunity: Great running game, safe routes, plenty of single coverage, and a MASSIVE amount of targets. I am not suggesting that he can't be a productive FF player if his sitation were to improve. But NFL WR1s are play-makers and NFL WR1s make plays and produce in less than ideal situations. Bowe, Marshall, Fitzgerald all come to mind. Crabtree is not that and never will be.I think the problem for the 49ers has clearly been at the QB spot. Even in a "career" year, Alex Smith still didn't reach 3,500 yards and only threw for 17 TDs. This was the first season Smith even looked halfway decent and even in that he was only asked to be a game manager. Crabtree looks like a guy that can make plays when he gets the opportunity to do so. Davis is/can be the true playmaker in that offense anyway - so they don't necessarily need a dominat WR1 (but let's not act like Crabtree has been given a full chance to show he can't be a WR1).His advanced stats give a better image of his season. He didn't make plays. He is not a play-maker at an NFL level. If he can keep getting safe targets at a crazy rate, he can be a boring WR2/3. But the 49ers offensive will suffer if they pretend they don't have a problem at the WR1 spot.Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.
Let's not also act like he's been anything special in his 3 years in the NFL.You're going to give Crabtree a free pass but not Alex Smith?I think the problem for the 49ers has clearly been at the QB spot. Even in a "career" year, Alex Smith still didn't reach 3,500 yards and only threw for 17 TDs. This was the first season Smith even looked halfway decent and even in that he was only asked to be a game manager. Crabtree looks like a guy that can make plays when he gets the opportunity to do so. Davis is/can be the true playmaker in that offense anyway - so they don't necessarily need a dominat WR1 (but let's not act like Crabtree has been given a full chance to show he can't be a WR1).His advanced stats give a better image of his season. He didn't make plays. He is not a play-maker at an NFL level. If he can keep getting safe targets at a crazy rate, he can be a boring WR2/3. But the 49ers offensive will suffer if they pretend they don't have a problem at the WR1 spot.Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.
You attributed an awful lot of statements I never made to me. I never said I was "impressed with his numbers last year". I didn't say he's "been anything special in his 3 years in the NFL".My point is that Crabtree's numbers are limited by the poor QB plya in SF the last three seasons and to some degree by scheme this season.Let's not also act like he's been anything special in his 3 years in the NFL.You're going to give Crabtree a free pass but not Alex Smith?I think the problem for the 49ers has clearly been at the QB spot. Even in a "career" year, Alex Smith still didn't reach 3,500 yards and only threw for 17 TDs. This was the first season Smith even looked halfway decent and even in that he was only asked to be a game manager. Crabtree looks like a guy that can make plays when he gets the opportunity to do so. Davis is/can be the true playmaker in that offense anyway - so they don't necessarily need a dominat WR1 (but let's not act like Crabtree has been given a full chance to show he can't be a WR1).His advanced stats give a better image of his season. He didn't make plays. He is not a play-maker at an NFL level. If he can keep getting safe targets at a crazy rate, he can be a boring WR2/3. But the 49ers offensive will suffer if they pretend they don't have a problem at the WR1 spot.Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.
Here is almost every catch Crab had in 2010
It wasn't directed at YOU, more-so this discussion.Let's not also act like he's been anything special in his 3 years in the NFL.You're going to give Crabtree a free pass but not Alex Smith?I think the problem for the 49ers has clearly been at the QB spot. Even in a "career" year, Alex Smith still didn't reach 3,500 yards and only threw for 17 TDs. This was the first season Smith even looked halfway decent and even in that he was only asked to be a game manager. Crabtree looks like a guy that can make plays when he gets the opportunity to do so. Davis is/can be the true playmaker in that offense anyway - so they don't necessarily need a dominat WR1 (but let's not act like Crabtree has been given a full chance to show he can't be a WR1).His advanced stats give a better image of his season. He didn't make plays. He is not a play-maker at an NFL level. If he can keep getting safe targets at a crazy rate, he can be a boring WR2/3. But the 49ers offensive will suffer if they pretend they don't have a problem at the WR1 spot.Crabtree was 12th in yards the 2nd half of the season, 8th in catches. I don't think he's "in over his head", or at least I don't think people can say that definitively yet. The guy hasn't really been healthy enough. Time will tell, but I'm more bullish on him than you are obviously.
Here is almost every catch Crab had in 2010
Interesting take. Hill has just found his way in to the first round of Buntings mock draft. http://www.nationalf...ft-30-8948.html
I agree, Blackmon may not have the top-end speed to be considered a top 5 NFL prospect, but he's still an excellent fantasy prospect. People looking at his lack of speed as a reason to downgrade him are simply nitpicking IMO. Nicks just tore the NFL a new one during the playoffs and is the player Blackmon is most often compared too. You don't need to run a 4.35 to be a stud FF receiver. He won't be a field stretcher but he's physical as hell and breaks tackles in the open field consistently which will be where his big plays come from. Re-watch his Fiesta Bowl performance for a great example. Blackmon's character is also top-notch. It might be an overlooked trait for some but I like the security of knowing he's not going to go diva on teams and be a suspension risk or locker room cancer.Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52Hakeem Nicks - 4.51Dwayne Bowe - 4.51Brandon Marshall - 4.52Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower. I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.
This says otherwisehttp://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5729979I agree, Blackmon may not have the top-end speed to be considered a top 5 NFL prospect, but he's still an excellent fantasy prospect. People looking at his lack of speed as a reason to downgrade him are simply nitpicking IMO. Nicks just tore the NFL a new one during the playoffs and is the player Blackmon is most often compared too. You don't need to run a 4.35 to be a stud FF receiver. He won't be a field stretcher but he's physical as hell and breaks tackles in the open field consistently which will be where his big plays come from. Re-watch his Fiesta Bowl performance for a great example. Blackmon's character is also top-notch. It might be an overlooked trait for some but I like the security of knowing he's not going to go diva on teams and be a suspension risk or locker room cancer.Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receivers
Hakeem Nicks - 4.51
Dwayne Bowe - 4.51
Brandon Marshall - 4.52
Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower.
I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.
It's not just lack of speed. CBs played off of him at least 6 yards almost every game. Can he beat NFL corners off the line? Couple that with his inability to get down field and you have the potential for bust. What I mean by bust is anything less than an NFL #1 WR would be a bust considering the hype. Yes, the same hype Crabtree was getting this time last year.I agree, Blackmon may not have the top-end speed to be considered a top 5 NFL prospect, but he's still an excellent fantasy prospect. People looking at his lack of speed as a reason to downgrade him are simply nitpicking IMO. Nicks just tore the NFL a new one during the playoffs and is the player Blackmon is most often compared too. You don't need to run a 4.35 to be a stud FF receiver. He won't be a field stretcher but he's physical as hell and breaks tackles in the open field consistently which will be where his big plays come from. Re-watch his Fiesta Bowl performance for a great example. Blackmon's character is also top-notch. It might be an overlooked trait for some but I like the security of knowing he's not going to go diva on teams and be a suspension risk or locker room cancer.Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receivers
I read he played against some terrible DBs during college. That's the reason why they played off of him. I'm betting he has trouble against top corners in the NFL.
But you were wrong...his moral compass isn't straight north
All I'm saying is that we were saying the same damn thing about Crabtree and in my mind there ARE a lot of similarities between Blackmon and Crabtree whether you want to believe it or not. So, this time next year I'll be bringing up both Blackmon and Crabtree to compare against some other stud you have a woody for.
How am I wrong? I already knew about his DUI before you posted that story. Somebody drinks and speeds and is suddenly immoral?
It doesn't equal top notch character. If it does, then my Character is out of this world
Good to know. I'll make sure to select you in my rookie drafts instead now.
Is this what you do when you make completely wrong statements?
Here's the thing tho, of the comps that have been discussed in this thread Bowe, Nicks, Crabtree, Boldin, Bryant, and Marshall all of them have been late 1st or later picks except the one that you don't want to compare him to in Crabtree.I don't think the discussion is so much about if he is a good WR prospect or not, he is, but rather whether it makes sense to spend an early first on a guy that simply isn't an early first round caliber talent. He may very well get selected in that range I won't argue that isn't a possibility, but let's be clear that if he is selected in that range it is because there is simply not a truly elite talent and he is the best of a deep group that lacks that truly dominant talent i.e. AJ, Calvin, or Fitz. Which leads to the debate about the wisdom of selecting a good but not great prospect with an early first.Further, you continue to compare him to the highest upside player of the comps thrown out in Nicks, which he could be, but fail to acknowledge the risk of him turning out like Crabs to date or having the consistency issues of Bowe or Bryant, or the hands issues of Marshall, or the host of players selected in that range that don't pan out at all.He is a good prospect but you have to consider the risk in the full range of possible outcomes to determine his draft day value rather than focus only on the best in the group.'EBF said:
I don't think the discussion is about that at all. This is a FF board. We are talking about his FF potential. If he turns out to be Hakeem Nicks or Brandon Marshall, his draft position will be irrelevant. And for the record, I think he is an early first round caliber talent. A perennial 1,000 yard guy is worth that kind of pick. That doesn't mean he will go that high. I think I said earlier (maybe in another thread) that it doesn't matter much to me if he's the 1st pick or the 31st pick. What matters is his FF potential, which I'm high on. I'm not here to debate the merits of taking a receiver in the top 10.
According to who? You? Lots of people rate him as one of the top 10 players in the draft. I get a bit tired of seeing people compare every WR prospect to Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson. NOBODY compares to them from a physical tools standpoint. Not Fitz. Not AJ Green. Not Marshall. Not half a dozen perennial Pro Bowlers. Just because Blackmon doesn't run a 4.3 doesn't mean he isn't an elite prospect. Fitz ran 4.5. AJ Green ran 4.5. Dez ran 4.5. Boldin ran 4.6. The list goes on and on.
If I was concerned about him becoming Crabtree or Bowe, I wouldn't be quite so high on him. I definitely overrated Crabtree in the past, but I learned a lesson from it. The difference between the two is that Blackmon is a stronger and more athletically gifted version of the same type of player. If I think he's clearly better than Crabtree then why do I need to consider the possibility that he turns out like Crabtree? That doesn't make any sense. They're not the same guy. Like any player, his production will hinge to some degree on his situation, but that doesn't mean we can't accurately gauge his abilities before he steps on the field next year. I look at Blackmon and see a guy who will have multiple 1000+ yard seasons in his career. It's called an opinion. Nobody is forcing you to agree with it.
Well, you got that part right
Really? A DUI means he has bad character? Gimme a break.'benson_will_lead_the_way said:This says otherwisehttp://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5729979'J-Dawg said:I agree, Blackmon may not have the top-end speed to be considered a top 5 NFL prospect, but he's still an excellent fantasy prospect. People looking at his lack of speed as a reason to downgrade him are simply nitpicking IMO. Nicks just tore the NFL a new one during the playoffs and is the player Blackmon is most often compared too. You don't need to run a 4.35 to be a stud FF receiver. He won't be a field stretcher but he's physical as hell and breaks tackles in the open field consistently which will be where his big plays come from. Re-watch his Fiesta Bowl performance for a great example. Blackmon's character is also top-notch. It might be an overlooked trait for some but I like the security of knowing he's not going to go diva on teams and be a suspension risk or locker room cancer.Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receivers
Hakeem Nicks - 4.51
Dwayne Bowe - 4.51
Brandon Marshall - 4.52
Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower.
I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.
A DUI today and the need to get in touch with his inner feelings tomorrow, sad.
Sorry I didn't realize I was supposed to reply with a deep philosophical retort when you responded with sarcasm. I have been aware of Blackmon's DUI since it happend I just didn't think it was a big deal because he seemed to not let it become an ongoing issue and everything else I've seen and read about him regarding his work ethic and character is enough for me to feel comfortable saying that he's not a character concern and won't be a problem with the team that drafts him. If a guy makes a habit out of getting arrested and piles up DUI's like they're handed out for free then I'll be concerned. The incident with Blackmon was a one-time thing that happened two years ago. People mature, I did stupid things when I was 20 too, so do most people, it's a fact of life. I don't feel the need to keep discussing this though. If you want to let it bother you that much and pass on Blackmon, I'm sure the other guys in your leagues will be happy to select him instead. I know I won't be scared of taking him in as many leagues as I can get my hands on him because I think he's going to be a great FF WR. Moving on.'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Fair enough. I enjoy your posts and respect your opinions.Thought I'd throw in my two cents, that while not disagreeing with you simply says to temper expectations somewhat.
a little early for this. if Jeffery comes in at 230 and runs a 4.55 40 yd dash, would your mind be changed?All I've seen of him is having his way with Dennard in his last college game before they were both ejected for scuffling, so I am keeping an open mind
I still won't be a believer. I saw a guy this year that just couldn't separate. The combine is important but it's not the only thing out there, game film is just as important, if not more. I watched Jeffery a bunch this year and was thoroughly unimpressed. He's an incredible jump ball receiver though, I'll give him that. He's incredible at snatching the ball at its highest point and out-muscleing defenders. He's got great body control to shield himself away from a defender while going up to get the ball. But, when he's in stride he just can't separate and that's concerning to me. He can do all of the work he wants to ace the combine but that won't change the game film. He might be able to deceive some teams with a great workout, but how many workout warriors have been able to do the same with disappointing results in the pros? Plus, I don't trust him to maintain the level of work he needs to do to be successful once he gets paid. There's a ton of WRs available this year to make Jeffery just not worth the risk.
Good points, and I'm leery of him as well. I will say that if he goes in the 2nd round, he won't be making enough to never have to work again -- it's the 2nd contract that'll make him rich, so *maybe*, just maybe, that would keep him hungry for a few years lol.
I wonder what kind of Tight End he would make...
Jeffrey has his issues for sure. Being "hungry" doesn't seem to be one of them. He has that down cold.
Except, you know, shorter, stockier, more powerful, better agility, but not as fast in a straight line.So, yeah, not so much.
He's about 20 lbs. lighter than guys like Gronk, Graham, Witten and the most recent 1st round TE prospect Gresham. I guess I should have clarified that I thought he was undersized compared to those types of TEs in the league. He's about the same size as Finley but I don't think he's nearly as physical as him. If Fleener shows up at the combine and has added more muscle and weight and it doesn't affect his speed and explosiveness then I'll probably move him up my rankings. But, given what I've seen from him so far I'm not putting him in the same category as the other physical mismatches at the position, I don't think he's got that kind of upside.
If that is true and he runs in the 4.5s, I think he is back into the top 10 of this rookie class conversation easy. Most people, including me, have downgraded him a ton. The "picture", 2011 production, and 249/4.8 40 rumors, all drove the change of view for most. That said, based on his 2010 season, that shouldnt be ignored, a motivated and in shape Jeffery is capable of putting up huge numbers.I think this is currently the most interesting pre-combine story and it could go either way.
Mayock said in his recent conference call that he expects Randle to be one of 4 WR to go in the first round: Blackmon, Floyd, Wright and Randle.Always nice to hear scouts are liking another player up that high. Makes the top 10 rookie picks look at least decent this year, with Jeffery pushing that to 11 for those that like him.
