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Is Moeaki a better gamble though? Moeaki really costs nothing (meaning, less than Housler). And has done more in the NFL. And has a coach who will use the TE a lot. And is on a team that may not have a true WR1. Although I don't know to what degree injury accumulation has affected his effectiveness.
I like Housler more because I like his talent more. I don't think I have a good feel for Moeaki, so perhaps I am missing an opportunity to buy low on him. But what has he really done more than Housler did this past year? A few random TDs? I know QB situation is not a battle KC usually wins, but I don't remember a situation as bad as AZ this season.
Further, I've often questioned the use of rostering "upside TEs". Obviously the Gronk, Hern, Graham class put that theory to shame, but low TE1 upside is essentially worthless. If the possible upside is capped by situation, is the player really worth rostering? When you could get the next DuJuan Harris instead.
I'll take a shot at the next Graham over DuJuan Harris. Position should be taken into account, but I really don't think Housler is the gamble that you do, if you think his roster worthiness is in question. League specs mean everything, but, that aside, I really like Housler as a buy.I also think the TE position is changing, and I think Housler offer mismatch potential; potential to be used the way Gronk and Graham are. I don't know if Arians is the guy to do it - but, especially outside of the RB position, talent usually prevails in dynasty formats. Gronk, Hern, Graham, Gresham all came along in a 2 year span. Relative to the number of TEs drafted - it's not the crapshoot it once was; the TE spot is producing relevance at an increasing rate.
Moeaki looked like a legit TE1 his rookie year IMO then tore his ACL in the '11 preseason. 2012 is kind of a mulligan for him, but he still did reasonably well. I am not really pimping Moeaki per se, just pointing out there's a dozen TE fliers you could pimp if you wanted to pick a favorite. Housler and Moeaki are completely different talents. Moeaki is Cooley/Dwayne Allen. Housler is Fleener/Hernandez. If it wasn't for the injury stuff I'd like Moeaki a lot more, but with it, they're both guys you might drop wk3 for a RB that went from 3rd to 2nd on the depth chart.
There is no such thing. Well, maybe Virgil Green
I respect your call. But I like his talent and to think upside TEs are more likely to pay off than you - we'll see. I don't see 12 TE fliers on Housler's level and will be very happy to both target him and roster him as my backup TE.
I rank Griffin as qb2 behind Rodgers. Getting him for anything less than top5 QB prices would be a steal.Tannehill may not have run for a lot this year, but the dude was a 1000 yard receiver in college. He has wheels, whether he's shown them off yet or not. His passing was also extremely impressive for a guy with 1.5 experience. I view both Dalton and Bradford as game managers, Flacco is erratic and unreliable (he's Josh Freeman with a higher floor and lower ceiling), and Cutler is a very good QB who is hamstrung by a very, very bad line. Of the four, Cutler has the best upside, but he's also the oldest. All four of them are LIKELY to outperform Tannehill- they're much safer. I just don't see that grand slam potential in them like I do in Tannehill, and I love grand slam potential in my backups (which is why I carried Kaepernick for two years in my dynasty league- perfect example of a high-upside stash).
I agree with this, but I might be biased because I have done everything in my power to have Graham in all of my leagues so I don't need to worry much about TE production for a while. If I'm really looking for the 'next Graham', I'd rather take my late first rounder if I see someone that really has a chance to be that guy. I'm not spending it on a guy playing for Arizona (or any team that doesn't have a true pro-bowl level QB). Moreso than WR production, I need my TE to have top talent throwing them the ball.
It's happening. It works too well not for it to happen. What was once a 'tweener' now has a very strong position opening up in todays NFL. Teams are starting to copy NO/NE and move their TEs around and use them as big WRs. The more the NFL moves towards a passing league, the more these guys will pop up. Again - look at the hit rate in the last 3 years. Graham is a special player, don't get me wrong. But more Graham-like players will be entering the NFL every year.There is no such thing. Well, maybe Virgil Green
If your a guy that believes in rookie splits... Tannehill put up 86% of his rushing stats in the final 6 games of the season. Prorated those final 6 games out for the year, and you are looking at close to 500 yards. Based on his athleticism and abilities in college, I think 350-400 yards is a reasonable expectation. Its not your Cam/RG3/Keap/Wilson level, but it could be in that next group and a step above what Rodgers gives you on the ground (which does amount to 1.5-2ppg).
ETA: Sorry. Thought you said Gresham, not Graham.I think it is short-sighted to have this approach in a dynasty league. You yourself said you recently invested in Gresham. Well - he doesn't have a pro-bowl level TE throwing him the ball. And wouldn't you say it would have been best to buy him when Dalton was a random 2nd round rookie QB, than a solid option? Wouldn't you have gotten much more value? I am a Dalton fan, but it is not a stretch to suggest Arizona can find a Dalton level QB soon. And Housler is 24 years old.
Close spelling, but while I love his NFL talent, the two guys in question are vastly different.Edit: see that you noticed this above, but Gresham is an interesting comparison because:
Virgil Green good posting there
We are going to need some context here, as everything is relative. If guys like Gresham don't have much value in your league, then maybe you're right to dismiss Housler. But plenty play in leagues were Gresham does have good value and a potential Gresham-like performer is worth a roster spot, at the very least. Low end QB1 production is easily replicable in most formats, but I gladly rolled the dice on Wilson when he was just an "upside QB" who hadn't even won the starting gig yet. Paid off nicely.
He is absolutely worth a roster spot, and is actually probably someone's starter. However, as you mentioned, he production is easily replicable. Its not going to cost you much to get him, and he isn't going to be worth much to someone else in a trade. I think by betting on a guy like Housler, your realistic upside is getting a guy that, even if he achieves his most-likely ceiling, won't be really worth all that much to other owners.Wilson is a different story, as he adds a ton of value on the ground. Most TEs you find won't have some extra value that gives them a chance of being more than a middling TE1.
Take away every point Wilson added on the ground and he should still have massive value. Rookie passing TD record, 26/10 ratio, playoffs, awesome near comeback in the playoffs. Would have been worth acquiring regardless. For the record, I don't see Gresham as Housler's ceiling; I don't see 2012 Gresham as Gresham's ceiling. I greatly urge against treating TEs as we treated them 5 years ago. Greatly. There is room up at the top next to Graham, Hernandez, and Gronkwoski, and teams will eventually support more players and production like said trio. Housler's talents translate nicely to a Graham role and I am getting on at the floor. It's not likely he is ever at that level, but Arian Foster wasn't likely. If you don't like his talent, don't invest. I do and am.ETA: 6'5" 250, 4.5/40, 37" vert, high 3rd round draft pick. Yes please.
I agree. Especially when you consider that him "returning" to his best statistical season wouldn't even make him a decent starter now that there are so many mobile young QBs putting up good rushing stats which increases the positional depth. QB is so deep right now, that pretty much every team in a 12 team league has a QB they feel pretty good about. I can see targeting Cutler as a backup if you have a young guy like RG3, Wilson or Kaepernick as your #1 or if you have an older guy like Peyton or Brady. But I have a hard time seeing a scenario where anyone would be targeting him thinking they are going to feel good about him being your starter for the whole season.
Taking away running stats from RW would give you a very impressive rookie campaign, and certainly the potential to be something big -- but he'd fit right around Bradford and Shaub in fantasy points, and would be worth a whole lot less in dynasty value.
His per attempt nubmers would still be insane for a rookie and owners would be able to look at his stats trending up as he got more freedom, and project that to continue. Wilson is a tier 2 dynasty option IMO, and it has next to nothing to do with his running stats.
I fully agree.
VERY
Not judging his rookie stats much at all, just look at the garbage he had to work with. He showed some skills this year that opened my eyes to what he can do once he has competent weapons around him.
I think Tannehill vs. Dalton in terms of upside is an interesting discussion. I'm a Bengals homer and have trouble viewing it objectively as sometimes I underrate Bengals and sometimes overrate them. Dalton had 27 passing TDs and 4 rushing TDs in his 2nd year despite not having much at WR other than AJ Green. In 4 pt. passing TD leagues, that is the equivalent of 33 passing TDs from a 2nd year QB, which you would think might put him more on the dynasty radar.Does he have room for individual improvement? What does a full season (and offseason of improvement) of Sanu and Marvin Jones along with high draft picks spent on a WR and pass catching RB do for his upside?The presence of AJ Green doesn't make Dalton a better QB, but it makes him a better fantasy QB. With the depth at QB, I can't get real excited about Dalton. But I think he is overlooked due to the fact that he doesn't look the part physically like Tannehill does. But Bengals want him to run more and he should be a guy that gets 4 or 5 rushing TDs every year on top of 30 passing TDs.
I think he still would have been a good prospect even without the rushing yards, but I don't think the idea that an extra 3 PPG on the ground doesn't greatly impact his dynasty value is an argument I'm going to buy.
I view Dalton like I view a guy in baseball that gets a ton of RBIs because of a variety of factors, often including opportunity and flat-out luck. His peripherals, primarily his YPA and INT%, suggests to me that his high TDs might not be something you can count a lot on. For him to get to the elite category, he is going to need to really improve that YPA.
I don't mean to downplay it; it certainly helps. I just think he would be right around the same spot in my rankings if he didn't add them. 3 of his 4 rushing TDs came in one game; all four came in the last 3 weeks of the season. At the very least, he'd be in the same tier he is now in my rankings.
I wasn't even putting any value on the rushing TDs, as even guys like Sanchez and Ryan will get 2-3 of them per year. The 3 PPG comes from his rushing YARDS, which I put a great deal of value in. It literally takes him from QB11 in my league this year all the way down to QB20 range, right near Bradford, Shaub, and Fitzgerald. 3 PPG is fairly significant and can take a QB12 to QB4-5 range.
It does help, and you're right in that regard. Again, I don't mean to downplay it. I can really only speak for myself, but I don't put much weight on his rushing stat for him, when projecting what he can do. As EBF said - and I know this is lofty - I see Brees-like potential and value him more for that, than the extra points he adds on the ground. I don't mean to split hairs with you - just my opinion.
It's more than just Brees/Brady, it's NO/NE. They are the only two teams fully committed and able to use a TE as a big WR. Replace Graham with maybe 5-6 other guys and you get top 5 TE production. Likely not Graham production, but top 5 would be a safe bet, I'd say. As far as it relates to finding the next Gronk/Graham/Hernandez - there are only 2 of those situations right now, though. We have to invest in talent, in that regard. ATL and GB look like nice landing places, but nothing like NO/NE, in terms of usage.
Ryan showed more promise as a rookie. 7.93 YPA, which is far ahead of anything Dalton has ever done. Dalton will have to improve a lot to be considered a top 10 NFL QB. Right now his FF value is based on accumulation and throwing for a high number of TDs. I don't like to bet on either of those things. I just don't see a lot of upside with him unless you're convinced he's going to improve. From where I stand he's nothing more than another Cutler/Schaub/Freeman. A guy who won't kill your FF team, but also won't provide any real value either. Unless you're in a start 2 QB league or you're desperate, that's not worth much to me. I'd rather pay a higher price and get someone like Wilson or Newton.
I think this is generally true. In the rookie draft he might have been undervalued. By midseason he became untouchable. He is no longer untouchable, but the price difference between him, Luck, Kaepernick and Wilson is not that big.
Yup. Dalton's not a top 10 QB, and I don't see him joining any time soon. His TDs were solid, but his yards were low, his YPA was low, his INTs are too high, and he never took over any games. After the playoffs, I saw Bengal fans questioning whether he was even the long-term answer. That's a bit premature, but I do think he's doomed to fall into that 10-16 range- guys too good for you to replace, but not good enough for you to feel happy about. Again, this is from an NFL standpoint, but I expect his fantasy outlook to mirror that pretty closely.
Owners like you are why I think now is a good time to buy on Griffin. Perfectly reasonable owners are feeling bearish on him for perfectly legitimate reasons. Those reasons don't scare me, so I'm inquiring with his owners to see if they're getting spooked. Can't blame them if they are, but I'm not spooked, so this is a good time to buy. I'd give anyone but Rodgers or Cam for him straight up.
I'm curious as to why you would trade Luck for him?
Wow, all those guys you mention in bold are pretty much guys I wouldn't touch right now unless they were real cheap. Can't see any of them being wr2s at all.
... because I expect him to be a more valuable fantasy asset than Luck?I think Griffin is as good of a passer as Luck, so even without the rushing production, they're pretty comparable. I also think Griffin will still have plenty of rushing production. If he gets even 80 carries a year at 6 ypc, that's 480 rushing yards. And 80 carries is hardly a punishing workload. But, like I said, even without the rushing production, I think he's every bit as good of a passer (and much better on the deep ball, which is typically a high-value proposition for fantasy).'lbouchard said:
I'd tend to side with this view point (and a little beyond). On one of my better teams, I traded RGIII and a late 2014 1st for my personally ranked QB3, Matt Ryan, and a random 2014 2nd. I can definitely understand the RGIII optimism based on what he has shown, but for me, thinking he can adapt to produce elite passing numbers and knowing he can are two very different things. Also, even if he scales back on the running, I'm still worried that I won't be able to rely on him to stay on the field.'EBF said:
The QB position is such that it's elite production or nothing, in terms of helping your fantasy team win. Upside is the most important factor when I value a QB. Matt Ryan is very likely an average starting QB on a yearly basis (5-7) out of 12. He gives his owners very little advantage over Tony Romo, who is essentially below replacement level, when it comes to dynasty value. Give me RG3.
Thats where we disagree. I believe Matt Ryan to be elite and this year was just the beginning. As is, I'll take the 369 especially considering that ATL walked through the motions in Week 17 (would have bested Peyton Manning otherwise). Take away that Week 17, and Ryan finished with 24, 25, 32, 23, 31. That kind of consistently very good to great fantasy production to finish the year should not be discounted imo. ATL's reliance on the pass will only grow in my estimation. For me, 369 is next year's baseline, not the upside. On the other hand, Romo's 350+ cannot be relied upon in 2013 imo (just like Eli Manning's 350+ in 2011 could not). That is the difference between Ryan and your so-called below replacement level QBs. I'd only take Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton over Ryan today.
