Dynasty: 2013 Off-season Grocery List (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

V Jackson...nimble......Even if you don't buy all that subjective analysis, Torrey's low reception totals and low conversion rate provide some support for the idea that he's not much of a possession WR. Is that just a matter of usage or does it reflect some actual deficiencies in his game?

Vincent Jackson (with all due respect to SSOG) isn't a nimble athlete. VJax for example didn't break 50 recept until Y4 and his high watermark is still 72.Like VJax, Torrey came into the league raw. He's only a 2nd year player. Can Torrey consistently get 70-80 receptions? Why not.

Jackson returned kicks and punts in college. He actually holds school records as a return man. Granted, he played against crap competition at Northern Colorado, but when you have these big WRs like Bryant and Thomas who move well enough to function in a KR/PR role, it's usually a sign that you might be dealing with a pretty special athlete. I would say that Jackson is nimble for his height and weight. And FWIW, it's not the lack of stats that worry me with Smith. It's the fact that he hasn't shown a complete WR skill set. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a solid player and he'll be a useful asset for a while, but I don't think he has much of a chance to become a complete #1 WR in the mold of a Dez/Thomas/Roddy/VJax/Marshall/Fitz. If you want to talk about young WRs, someone like Michael Floyd or Justin Blackmon is probably more likely to become that type of player.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

my 'throw them against a wall and see what sticks' list Mohamed Sanu Golden Tate Greg Little TY Hilton Chris Givens Brian Quick Stephen Hill Ryan Broyles Rod Streater Alshon Jeffery A.J. Jenkins Kendall Wright Joseph Morgan Jon Baldwin Michael Floyd Rueben Randle Leonard Hankerson Vincent Brown

 

[thriftyrocker]

my 'throw them against a wall and see what sticks' list Mohamed Sanu Golden Tate Greg Little TY Hilton Chris Givens Brian Quick Stephen Hill Ryan Broyles Rod Streater Alshon Jeffery A.J. Jenkins Kendall Wright Joseph Morgan Jon Baldwin Michael Floyd Rueben Randle Leonard Hankerson Vincent Brown

What 1st or 2nd year WRs do you not like? J/k.

 

[joey]

my 'throw them against a wall and see what sticks' list Mohamed Sanu Golden Tate Greg Little TY Hilton Chris Givens Brian Quick Stephen Hill Ryan Broyles Rod Streater Alshon Jeffery A.J. Jenkins Kendall Wright Joseph Morgan Jon Baldwin Michael Floyd Rueben Randle Leonard Hankerson Vincent Brown

Interesting that you mix a couple of mid-first round rookie picks (Floyd and Wright) in with the rest of those guys. Is anyone really at the "throw me against the wall and see if they stick" phase with those 2 guys? I'm in two 12 team, Keep 12 leagues (ie. not very deep leagues) and I don't think anyone is at that phase with those 2 guys this soon. Just sayin'

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

my 'throw them against a wall and see what sticks' list Mohamed Sanu Golden Tate Greg Little TY Hilton Chris Givens Brian Quick Stephen Hill Ryan Broyles Rod Streater Alshon Jeffery A.J. Jenkins Kendall Wright Joseph Morgan Jon Baldwin Michael Floyd Rueben Randle Leonard Hankerson Vincent Brown

Interesting that you mix a couple of mid-first round rookie picks (Floyd and Wright) in with the rest of those guys. Is anyone really at the "throw me against the wall and see if they stick" phase with those 2 guys? I'm in two 12 team, Keep 12 leagues (ie. not very deep leagues) and I don't think anyone is at that phase with those 2 guys this soon. Just sayin'

Would you consider Floyd or Wright startable in any league if one started today? I wouldn't . what I mean't by the title was more guys that you wouldn't start or count on, but would love to have as depth on your bench. I would love to have Floyd and Wright on my bench but I'm certainly not putting myself in the situation to count on them for next year. not speaking about value as this isn't a buy low thread, but more who are you looking to acquire... and those are the players I'm looking to aquire

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

my 'throw them against a wall and see what sticks' list Mohamed Sanu Golden Tate Greg Little TY Hilton Chris Givens Brian Quick Stephen Hill Ryan Broyles Rod Streater Alshon Jeffery A.J. Jenkins Kendall Wright Joseph Morgan Jon Baldwin Michael Floyd Rueben Randle Leonard Hankerson Vincent Brown

What 1st or 2nd year WRs do you not like? J/k.

LOL, I see you caught the theme

 

[jdoggydogg]

Torrey is a one trick pony. All deep stuff and nothing else.

Shorts is a better overall receiver and less feast-or-famine from an FF standpoint. I would rather have him.

Especially in a PPR format.

 

[joey]

my 'throw them against a wall and see what sticks' list Mohamed Sanu Golden Tate Greg Little TY Hilton Chris Givens Brian Quick Stephen Hill Ryan Broyles Rod Streater Alshon Jeffery A.J. Jenkins Kendall Wright Joseph Morgan Jon Baldwin Michael Floyd Rueben Randle Leonard Hankerson Vincent Brown

Interesting that you mix a couple of mid-first round rookie picks (Floyd and Wright) in with the rest of those guys. Is anyone really at the "throw me against the wall and see if they stick" phase with those 2 guys? I'm in two 12 team, Keep 12 leagues (ie. not very deep leagues) and I don't think anyone is at that phase with those 2 guys this soon. Just sayin'

Would you consider Floyd or Wright startable in any league if one started today? I wouldn't . what I mean't by the title was more guys that you wouldn't start or count on, but would love to have as depth on your bench. I would love to have Floyd and Wright on my bench but I'm certainly not putting myself in the situation to count on them for next year. not speaking about value as this isn't a buy low thread, but more who are you looking to acquire... and those are the players I'm looking to aquire

No. Not startable just yet (though Wright is on the verge). I guess I'm just nitpicking a bit saying OF COURSE owners would love to have those 2 on their bench because they both were drafted by their owners in the middle of the first round of rookie drafts last year. And OF COURSE their owners are hoping that they be starters in the next year or two or they wouldn't have drafted them there, but I, at least, didn't expect immediate Green/Jones production out of them right out of the gate. Like I said, I'm nitpicking a bit here since I thought it was odd to say that mid-first round rookie draft picks from last year would be guys you wouldn't mind having on your bench. I guess, for those two guys, I felt like it was stating the obvious.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I was looking at "contrarian RBs" and came up with this list. Basically guys that failed before, or were painfully mediocre, and now are viewed as having missed their window (similar to Moreno last year and Vereen up until a couple weeks ago). Any others anyone likes?Bilal Powell NYJ (ADP 152) - He is better than Shonn Greene. Shonn Greene is a free agent. The Jets are unlikely to pay a high priced FA or use 1.9 on a RB. Mornhinweg the new OC might favor a pass catching RB over a bruiser.Felix Jones FA (ADP 188) - He cannot stay healthy and doesn't seem to be the same back he was his first few years. But he could emerge as a lower cost alternative to Bush (e.g., if Detroit cannot afford Bush).Roy Helu WAS (ADP 202) - He lost his job due to injury. Not about whether you believe in Morris or not but whether he is worth this ADP.LeGarrette Blount RFA (ADP 202) - Can be an effective 2 down RB on a team willing to put up with him.Toby Gerhart MIN (ADP 202) - EBF special. Donald Brown IND (ADP 241) - If Indy keeps him, he could have value. Arians is gone, and they will go to a WCO, so the adage that Ballard was a better fit is no longer valid.ADP from DLF

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I was looking at "contrarian RBs" and came up with this list. Basically guys that failed before, or were painfully mediocre, and now are viewed as having missed their window (similar to Moreno last year and Vereen up until a couple weeks ago). Any others anyone likes?Bilal Powell NYJ (ADP 152) - He is better than Shonn Greene. Shonn Greene is a free agent. The Jets are unlikely to pay a high priced FA or use 1.9 on a RB. Mornhinweg the new OC might favor a pass catching RB over a bruiser.Felix Jones FA (ADP 188) - He cannot stay healthy and doesn't seem to be the same back he was his first few years. But he could emerge as a lower cost alternative to Bush (e.g., if Detroit cannot afford Bush).Roy Helu WAS (ADP 202) - He lost his job due to injury. Not about whether you believe in Morris or not but whether he is worth this ADP.LeGarrette Blount RFA (ADP 202) - Can be an effective 2 down RB on a team willing to put up with him.Toby Gerhart MIN (ADP 202) - EBF special. Donald Brown IND (ADP 241) - If Indy keeps him, he could have value. Arians is gone, and they will go to a WCO, so the adage that Ballard was a better fit is no longer valid.ADP from DLF

A few that might meet your criteria:Mendenhall PITBernard Scott CINRashad Jennings JAXPeyton Hillis KCKevin Smith DET

 

[thriftyrocker]

I think Mendenhall's ADP at 105 excludes him. He has hype, and I meant more anti-hype or post-hype. There may be value there, but given possible day 1 starters like Dwyer and Ryan Williams go after him, it's not as bargain basement as I intended.The other 4 names are all possibilities. Hillis is a similar play to Felix. He is terrible now (slow, no heart), but he didn't used to be so terrible. I like Kevin Smith a lot but I'm worried no team will take a chance on him at this point, even as a camp body.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

Thats where we disagree. I believe Matt Ryan to be elite and this year was just the beginning. As is, I'll take the 369 especially considering that ATL walked through the motions in Week 17 (would have bested Peyton Manning otherwise). Take away that Week 17, and Ryan finished with 24, 25, 32, 23, 31. That kind of consistently very good to great fantasy production to finish the year should not be discounted imo.

ATL's reliance on the pass will only grow in my estimation. For me, 369 is next year's baseline, not the upside.

On the other hand, Romo's 350+ cannot be relied upon in 2013 imo (just like Eli Manning's 350+ in 2011 could not). That is the difference between Ryan and your so-called below replacement level QBs.

I'd only take Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton over Ryan today.

You're making quite an investement; you're taking a players career year and calling it just the begining, knowing he is losing a great TE. Why are Romo and Manning's numbers fluid, but Ryans will only go up? Romo's numbers are pretty close to Ryan's and he had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. I would gladly take Romo over Ryan in a re-draft, assuming Dallas can field even a baseline O-line.

Statistically, year 5 is the year a QB is what he is. Most QBs don't drastically improve over that baseline.

Simply my opinion, and we'll see. But calling 2012 a baseline is calling Ryan a Brady/Manning level player. I don't see that.

He put up better numbers in his first 5 years than Brady ever did. Back before the 2006 season I had a decision in a keeper league on whether to keep Brady or whether to keep Carson Palmer and I ended up keeping Palmer and trading Brady. Up to that time, Brady was a solid QB who wouldn't win your league for you but he wouldn't lose it. He'd have 3 TD's one game and then one or none for two games. He was more of a so-so fantasy QB than Ryan has been the last couple of years and he continued that for one more year before 2007 happened and he jumped from a career high of 28 TD's to 50 TD's and became the QB that you considered in the first two rounds instead of being the safe guy you could get late after the elite QB's were taken. For a second example, after year 5 is exactly when Brees was jettisoned to New Orleans for a song because they wanted to start the Philip Rivers era. Now you look at he and Brady as two of the top 5 QB's in either the NFL or in fantasy and neither were at the same level of production in year five than Ryan is right now. In year five Brady was 6th in TD's but 10th in yards behind fantasy studs like Jake Plummer, Jake Delomne, and Aaron Brooks. Hard to write off production like Ryan has given and say that last year was his ceiling. Sure Gonzales might go but consider that Jones was only in his second year and could actually improve a bit more and they may be forced to get production in other places.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

Want to add that I find a bit of comfort in the positive reviews on Shorts. I picked him up off waivers in my dynasty (contracted salaries) with a bid at the league minimum salary only to have him be my best WR on a team that was absolutely one of the worst in the league at WR. The league has a formula for calculating an earned salary and a player can force a salary increase when that earned salary exceeds their contracted salary by a factor of 4. Needless to say he exceeded his salary by a factor of about 19 and change and I'm being forced to give him a healthy pay raise this upcoming season or else cut him. Given my lack of talent at WR I really can't afford to lose him but am still really torn on whether I'll be paying him salary based on a career year or getting him at a discount for up to the next 6 years.

 

[lbouchard]

Could Andre Brown fit on that list for RBs?

 

[Concept Coop]

He put up better numbers in his first 5 years than Brady ever did. For a second example, after year 5 is exactly when Brees was jettisoned to New Orleans for a song because they wanted to start the Philip Rivers era.

You could find a lot more exceptions than the two you mention. But are you going to treat those exceptions as a rule? If 2012 was a baseline year for Matt Ryan, he's going to be in the conversation for best QB of all time before he retires. It's not hard for me to fold on that bet. Not at all.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Could Andre Brown fit on that list for RBs?

Yeah, a lot of similarities to Moreno, actually. If Coughlin's lack of trust in Wilson runs deep.Other names I thought of that I don't have a strong feeling on.Joique Bell - May be better than Leshoure but a similar player. DET seems committed to Leshoure and looking for a better complement.Montario Hardesty - Former 2nd round pick. Decent YPC last year. Needs a TR injury but that's not so far fetched.Daniel Thomas - Former 2nd round pick. A good game or two, but bad YPC career to date, and MIA announced he will not compete to start. Taiwan Jones - Speed back, struggled to get reps. Might move to CB (could be gold in IDP leagues with CB slots).

 

[Ernol]

He put up better numbers in his first 5 years than Brady ever did. For a second example, after year 5 is exactly when Brees was jettisoned to New Orleans for a song because they wanted to start the Philip Rivers era.

You could find a lot more exceptions than the two you mention. But are you going to treat those exceptions as a rule? If 2012 was a baseline year for Matt Ryan, he's going to be in the conversation for best QB of all time before he retires. It's not hard for me to fold on that bet. Not at all.

Not sure why you think he has to be in that conversation if that is true. Stafford's 2012 might be looked as his baseline (351). After all, last year he already produced a 411 year. 375 and above the next several years is not unrealistic. And yet, would you include Stafford in that conversation? I wouldn't. Now Aaron Rodgers definitely, but isn't 400+ his baseline these days? He scored 449 last year. Thats a lot higher than Matt Ryan right now. Matt Ryan is not even in the conversation yet when compared to Rodgers' numbers. Drew Brees' numbers are even higher than Rodgers'. The NFL has changed. Some of the "real" elite players are putting up monster numbers much higher than Ryan, even if you consider Ryan's 369 as his baseline. Just by virtue of the new NFL, guys like Stafford and Ryan are going to put up monster numbers. Doesn't mean that they have to be included as being among the best of all time.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

my 'throw them against a wall and see what sticks' list Mohamed Sanu Golden Tate Greg Little TY Hilton Chris Givens Brian Quick Stephen Hill Ryan Broyles Rod Streater Alshon Jeffery A.J. Jenkins Kendall Wright Joseph Morgan Jon Baldwin Michael Floyd Rueben Randle Leonard Hankerson Vincent Brown

Interesting that you mix a couple of mid-first round rookie picks (Floyd and Wright) in with the rest of those guys. Is anyone really at the "throw me against the wall and see if they stick" phase with those 2 guys? I'm in two 12 team, Keep 12 leagues (ie. not very deep leagues) and I don't think anyone is at that phase with those 2 guys this soon. Just sayin'

Would you consider Floyd or Wright startable in any league if one started today? I wouldn't . what I mean't by the title was more guys that you wouldn't start or count on, but would love to have as depth on your bench. I would love to have Floyd and Wright on my bench but I'm certainly not putting myself in the situation to count on them for next year. not speaking about value as this isn't a buy low thread, but more who are you looking to acquire... and those are the players I'm looking to aquire

No. Not startable just yet (though Wright is on the verge). I guess I'm just nitpicking a bit saying OF COURSE owners would love to have those 2 on their bench because they both were drafted by their owners in the middle of the first round of rookie drafts last year. And OF COURSE their owners are hoping that they be starters in the next year or two or they wouldn't have drafted them there, but I, at least, didn't expect immediate Green/Jones production out of them right out of the gate. Like I said, I'm nitpicking a bit here since I thought it was odd to say that mid-first round rookie draft picks from last year would be guys you wouldn't mind having on your bench. I guess, for those two guys, I felt like it was stating the obvious.

so what exactly is your point other than to nitpick lol If you can buy them, I would. I suppose I apologize for the wording

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

Could Andre Brown fit on that list for RBs?

Yeah, a lot of similarities to Moreno, actually. If Coughlin's lack of trust in Wilson runs deep.Other names I thought of that I don't have a strong feeling on.

Joique Bell - May be better than Leshoure but a similar player. DET seems committed to Leshoure and looking for a better complement.

Montario Hardesty - Former 2nd round pick. Decent YPC last year. Needs a TR injury but that's not so far fetched.

Daniel Thomas - Former 2nd round pick. A good game or two, but bad YPC career to date, and MIA announced he will not compete to start.

Taiwan Jones - Speed back, struggled to get reps. Might move to CB (could be gold in IDP leagues with CB slots).

Wow where did you read this ? So he must have played DB in high school then ? Have never heard of a player making that positional switch in the pros.

 

[Concept Coop]

Not sure why you think he has to be in that conversation if that is true. Stafford's 2012 might be looked as his baseline (351). After all, last year he already produced a 411 year. 375 and above the next several years is not unrealistic. And yet, would you include Stafford in that conversation? I wouldn't. Now Aaron Rodgers definitely, but isn't 400+ his baseline these days? He scored 449 last year. Thats a lot higher than Matt Ryan right now. Matt Ryan is not even in the conversation yet when compared to Rodgers' numbers. Drew Brees' numbers are even higher than Rodgers'. The NFL has changed. Some of the "real" elite players are putting up monster numbers much higher than Ryan, even if you consider Ryan's 369 as his baseline. Just by virtue of the new NFL, guys like Stafford and Ryan are going to put up monster numbers. Doesn't mean that they have to be included as being among the best of all time.

If 4,700/32 is an average year for Matt Ryan, he's going down as one of the best players ever. Statistically, he'll be right next to Brady, Manning, Rodgers. And if those numbers hold, his team will win the games needed for him to be in the conversation too. 2011 wasn't a traditional year and, as we all saw, the passing numbers came back down to earth. I don't think Stafford helps your argument. He was Matt Ryan last year - it didn't hold up.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Could Andre Brown fit on that list for RBs?

Yeah, a lot of similarities to Moreno, actually. If Coughlin's lack of trust in Wilson runs deep.Other names I thought of that I don't have a strong feeling on.

Joique Bell - May be better than Leshoure but a similar player. DET seems committed to Leshoure and looking for a better complement.

Montario Hardesty - Former 2nd round pick. Decent YPC last year. Needs a TR injury but that's not so far fetched.

Daniel Thomas - Former 2nd round pick. A good game or two, but bad YPC career to date, and MIA announced he will not compete to start.

Taiwan Jones - Speed back, struggled to get reps. Might move to CB (could be gold in IDP leagues with CB slots).

Wow where did you read this ? So he must have played DB in high school then ? Have never heard of a player making that positional switch in the pros.

The Jets have tried it with Joe McKnight this past season.

 

[Concept Coop]

I've added Victor Cruz to my list. He's falling towards the end of tier 2, and I think he has value there. In PPR formats, he has a great blend of skills that will lead to big plays and TDs, as well as steady receptions.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Taiwan Jones CB http://justblogbaby.com/2013/01/08/raiders-new-cornerback/Just speculation at this point, don't mean to give it anything more than that.

 

[Ernol]

Not sure why you think he has to be in that conversation if that is true. Stafford's 2012 might be looked as his baseline (351). After all, last year he already produced a 411 year. 375 and above the next several years is not unrealistic. And yet, would you include Stafford in that conversation? I wouldn't. Now Aaron Rodgers definitely, but isn't 400+ his baseline these days? He scored 449 last year. Thats a lot higher than Matt Ryan right now. Matt Ryan is not even in the conversation yet when compared to Rodgers' numbers. Drew Brees' numbers are even higher than Rodgers'. The NFL has changed. Some of the "real" elite players are putting up monster numbers much higher than Ryan, even if you consider Ryan's 369 as his baseline. Just by virtue of the new NFL, guys like Stafford and Ryan are going to put up monster numbers. Doesn't mean that they have to be included as being among the best of all time.

If 4,700/32 is an average year for Matt Ryan, he's going down as one of the best players ever. Statistically, he'll be right next to Brady, Manning, Rodgers. And if those numbers hold, his team will win the games needed for him to be in the conversation too. 2011 wasn't a traditional year and, as we all saw, the passing numbers came back down to earth. I don't think Stafford helps your argument. He was Matt Ryan last year - it didn't hold up.

No Stafford this year is close to Matt Ryan. Stafford last year was on another plane entirely.

 

[squistion]

Taiwan Jones CB http://justblogbaby.com/2013/01/08/raiders-new-cornerback/

Just speculation at this point, don't mean to give it anything more than that.

I know. Too bad the prior OC never really gave him a chance to see what he could do IMO. As a Jones owner in a non-IDP I am hoping the new regime at least gives him a few carries as a 3rd down or relief RB before cutting him or changing positions.

 

[bmsarvis]

Lamar millerLamicheal jamesdaryl richardson Ronnie hillmanlavon brazilGreg jenningsjarvis jonesThere's a rookie te with major athletic ability name escapes keep thinking eifert but i think that is incorrect.All should be relatively cheap and i believe they will conaiderably outperform adp in startups.Thanks for the input so far fellas Fulldisclosure i only get about half of hunches on these type of guys. But last year the couple i got was morris givens gordon and lavontae david.

 

[Tanner9919]

Robert Griffin- the time to buy studs is always after a major injury. The public tends to dramatically overprice injury risk- witness Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, Wes Welker, etc. Tony Romo- buy-low hall of famer. On a ppg basis, he's basically Peyton Manning, and has been for 6 years, but people rarely price him as a top-10 QB.Ryan Tannehill- when it comes to backup QBs, I want no part of low-upside guys like Dalton, Cutler, Bradford, or Flacco... but I love me some high-ceiling flyers. Alfred Morris / Stevan Ridley- people question their job security. People shouldn't. Demarco Murray / Ryan Mathews- injury buys, although Mathews' collarbones worry me some. Percy Harvin- injury buyWes Welker- if he can be had for WR20 prices, I like it. Either he's back in New England, or someone pays him big money with the intention of featuring him. Either way, he's a great add for a contender. Andre Johnson also fits the mold if people are worried about his age. Vincent Jackson- what does the guy have to do to get respect? In his last 4 full seasons, he's finished 12th, 10th, 10th, and 6th.Greg Olsen- outside of their respective career years, he's essentially scored identical to Witten and Vernon for a fraction of the cost. Low-upside, but cheap as hell. Dwayne Allen- my pick for "what the heck" high-upside gamble. Don't know where he's valued, but he's a great speculative add. Jermichael Finley- again, upside is the name of the game. San Francisco / Denver / Seattle / Houston- in a lot of leagues, defenses (even good defenses) can be had cheaply (a rookie 2nd, perhaps). These four have so much young talent that I'd be thrilled to rely on them for years to come.

LOVE your opinion of Tannehill, loads of upside there! agree with Olsen,is criminally neglected in TE rankings..Wes Welker I'd have to disagree with, and the reason being? name the last former NE WR that had anything close to lukewarm production elsewhere...they're system guys..they work well in the NE system,but not so well elsewhere..buyer beware..you're probably not going to see the 100+ recs on some other team,more like 3rd WR type of numbers, i.e., 50-60 recs..a defense that surely is on the rise,and will make some noise? Cleveland Browns. Ray Horton, defensive coordinator..high draft picks(again)..they're already an up-n-coming defense..Andrew Hawkins - 23 recs in 2011, 51 last season..3rd year WR..could become a solid WR3 for any fantasy team,with good upside..Golden Tate - plenty of upside, 7 tds in 2012.T.Y HiltonR. RandleJames Jones - how come no one is talking about him? 14 TD in 2012 is no joke,the kid is legit, with the exception of 2011 his rec totals have gone up each year he's been in the league,with a lofty 13.9 career ypc avg..Driver retires.Jennings possibly going away..what's not to like?

 

[pecorino]

I was looking at "contrarian RBs" and came up with this list. Basically guys that failed before, or were painfully mediocre, and now are viewed as having missed their window (similar to Moreno last year and Vereen up until a couple weeks ago). Any others anyone likes?Bilal Powell NYJ (ADP 152) - He is better than Shonn Greene. Shonn Greene is a free agent. The Jets are unlikely to pay a high priced FA or use 1.9 on a RB. Mornhinweg the new OC might favor a pass catching RB over a bruiser.Felix Jones FA (ADP 188) - He cannot stay healthy and doesn't seem to be the same back he was his first few years. But he could emerge as a lower cost alternative to Bush (e.g., if Detroit cannot afford Bush).Roy Helu WAS (ADP 202) - He lost his job due to injury. Not about whether you believe in Morris or not but whether he is worth this ADP.LeGarrette Blount RFA (ADP 202) - Can be an effective 2 down RB on a team willing to put up with him.Toby Gerhart MIN (ADP 202) - EBF special. Donald Brown IND (ADP 241) - If Indy keeps him, he could have value. Arians is gone, and they will go to a WCO, so the adage that Ballard was a better fit is no longer valid.ADP from DLF

i agree with your assessment of Powell. how about adding Chris Ivory to this list? i've been impressed with his running and the Saints are going to thin their herd at RB, aren't they? he could land somewhere and produce.

 

[TheFanatic]

James Jones - how come no one is talking about him? 14 TD in 2012 is no joke,the kid is legit, with the exception of 2011 his rec totals have gone up each year he's been in the league,with a lofty 13.9 career ypc avg..Driver retires.Jennings possibly going away..what's not to like?

James Jones receptions over his career and he has played in all 16 games except for one year: 47, 20 (only played 10 games), 32, 50, 38, 64Despite only playing in 10 games, if you prorate the 20 over the rest of the games he only has 26. The guy is 28 and caught a lot of touchdowns for the first time in his career, or as I like to call it, Laurent Robinson 2012.

 

[SSOG]

James Jones - how come no one is talking about him? 14 TD in 2012 is no joke,the kid is legit, with the exception of 2011 his rec totals have gone up each year he's been in the league,with a lofty 13.9 career ypc avg..Driver retires.Jennings possibly going away..what's not to like?

James Jones receptions over his career and he has played in all 16 games except for one year: 47, 20 (only played 10 games), 32, 50, 38, 64Despite only playing in 10 games, if you prorate the 20 over the rest of the games he only has 26. The guy is 28 and caught a lot of touchdowns for the first time in his career, or as I like to call it, Laurent Robinson 2012.

Right. And "TDs tend to follow yards" doesn't just apply to players who scored remarkably few TDs (Calvin and Andre, for example). When a guy has 14 TDs on just 850 yards, I view those TD totals as a massive fluke and ripe as hell for regression.

 

[JackReacher]

James Jones - how come no one is talking about him? 14 TD in 2012 is no joke,the kid is legit, with the exception of 2011 his rec totals have gone up each year he's been in the league,with a lofty 13.9 career ypc avg..Driver retires.Jennings possibly going away..what's not to like?

James Jones receptions over his career and he has played in all 16 games except for one year: 47, 20 (only played 10 games), 32, 50, 38, 64Despite only playing in 10 games, if you prorate the 20 over the rest of the games he only has 26. The guy is 28 and caught a lot of touchdowns for the first time in his career, or as I like to call it, Laurent Robinson 2012.

Right. And "TDs tend to follow yards" doesn't just apply to players who scored remarkably few TDs (Calvin and Andre, for example). When a guy has 14 TDs on just 850 yards, I view those TD totals as a massive fluke and ripe as hell for regression.

Not the first time in his career. Also caught 7 touchdowns in 2011. Plays in an offense that consistently throws in the red zone with the best quarterback in the league. We may question his talent, that's fine. But he built a rapport with Rodgers last year and I would not be surprised to see double digit touchdowns again.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

I'm just curious what people's thoughts about Lesean McCoy are? It's looking an awful lot like those 20 TD's in 2011 were a massive fluke but 5 from 2012 looks like it could be off the mean low as well.

 

[SSOG]

James Jones - how come no one is talking about him? 14 TD in 2012 is no joke,the kid is legit, with the exception of 2011 his rec totals have gone up each year he's been in the league,with a lofty 13.9 career ypc avg..Driver retires.Jennings possibly going away..what's not to like?

James Jones receptions over his career and he has played in all 16 games except for one year: 47, 20 (only played 10 games), 32, 50, 38, 64Despite only playing in 10 games, if you prorate the 20 over the rest of the games he only has 26. The guy is 28 and caught a lot of touchdowns for the first time in his career, or as I like to call it, Laurent Robinson 2012.

Right. And "TDs tend to follow yards" doesn't just apply to players who scored remarkably few TDs (Calvin and Andre, for example). When a guy has 14 TDs on just 850 yards, I view those TD totals as a massive fluke and ripe as hell for regression.

Not the first time in his career. Also caught 7 touchdowns in 2011. Plays in an offense that consistently throws in the red zone with the best quarterback in the league. We may question his talent, that's fine. But he built a rapport with Rodgers last year and I would not be surprised to see double digit touchdowns again.

7 TDs on 635 is high, but reasonable. That's 90 yards per TD. Most receivers average 150-200 yards per TD, but an occasional 100-125 season is not far outside the norm. This year, Jones averaged 56 yards per TD. That's not reasonable. That's not sustainable. Jones is the only guy in history with 14 TDs on under 1000 yards, and he didn't even break 800! The historical list of guys with fewer than 60 yards per TD and at least 8 TDs includes four HoFers (Warfield, Rice, Carter, Moss) and "who's that?" names like Marc Boerigter (420/8), Willie Miller (358/8), and Daryl Turner (670/13), all of whom were out of the league within 3 years, never coming close to replicating the feat. The only way Jones ever gets double digit TDs again is if he becomes a 1,000 yard receiver at least (1200 yards would be better). If you like his chances, get him. If you're just impressed by the sparkly TD total, look elsewhere.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I was looking at "contrarian RBs" and came up with this list. Basically guys that failed before, or were painfully mediocre, and now are viewed as having missed their window (similar to Moreno last year and Vereen up until a couple weeks ago). Any others anyone likes?Bilal Powell NYJ (ADP 152) - He is better than Shonn Greene. Shonn Greene is a free agent. The Jets are unlikely to pay a high priced FA or use 1.9 on a RB. Mornhinweg the new OC might favor a pass catching RB over a bruiser.

i agree with your assessment of Powell. how about adding Chris Ivory to this list? i've been impressed with his running and the Saints are going to thin their herd at RB, aren't they? he could land somewhere and produce.

To be honest, I'm trying to sell Ivory everywhere. I like his talent, obviously, but a lot of things have to go right for him to have real value, esp in PPR. His ADP is right at the same place as Powell so I think it's right. Whether you buy these guys or not depends a lot on your read of situation, which is subjective. I definitely agree he's the same sort of play.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm just curious what people's thoughts about Lesean McCoy are? It's looking an awful lot like those 20 TD's in 2011 were a massive fluke but 5 from 2012 looks like it could be off the mean low as well.

Not a fluke. TDs are just fluid and depend a lot on situation. The situation around was much worse. I still think he is an elite combination of age/talent/production history. In PPR leagues, I still value him as top 3-4. Less in standard formats.

 

[Concept Coop]

James Jones - how come no one is talking about him? 14 TD in 2012 is no joke,the kid is legit, with the exception of 2011 his rec totals have gone up each year he's been in the league,with a lofty 13.9 career ypc avg..Driver retires.Jennings possibly going away..what's not to like?

James Jones receptions over his career and he has played in all 16 games except for one year: 47, 20 (only played 10 games), 32, 50, 38, 64Despite only playing in 10 games, if you prorate the 20 over the rest of the games he only has 26. The guy is 28 and caught a lot of touchdowns for the first time in his career, or as I like to call it, Laurent Robinson 2012.

He's the starting X WR for the GB Packers. I don't think we need to overthink it too much. He's going to score a lot of TDs.

 

[JackReacher]

If you like his chances, get him. If you're just impressed by the sparkly TD total, look elsewhere.

I own him and I'm not going to pretend he has any great value on the open market. But most of us who bought Jones, paid very little for him. I spent a 17th rounder in a start-up. So yes, I was very happy with James Jones and those 14tds. And if he doesn't repeat, oh well. He more than already paid his freight.That being said, he is still a red zone option on the team that throws more touchdown passes than any other. I'll gladly hold.ETA: Just realized this is the Grocery List thread. So yeah, not arguing he's a 2013 buy, but he was a terrific 2012 purchase.

 

[rct]

James Jones - how come no one is talking about him? 14 TD in 2012 is no joke,the kid is legit, with the exception of 2011 his rec totals have gone up each year he's been in the league,with a lofty 13.9 career ypc avg..Driver retires.Jennings possibly going away..what's not to like?

James Jones receptions over his career and he has played in all 16 games except for one year: 47, 20 (only played 10 games), 32, 50, 38, 64Despite only playing in 10 games, if you prorate the 20 over the rest of the games he only has 26. The guy is 28 and caught a lot of touchdowns for the first time in his career, or as I like to call it, Laurent Robinson 2012.

Right. And "TDs tend to follow yards" doesn't just apply to players who scored remarkably few TDs (Calvin and Andre, for example). When a guy has 14 TDs on just 850 yards, I view those TD totals as a massive fluke and ripe as hell for regression.

I am fairly certain there will be a regression on the TDs. But since everybody is pointing to that and the conventional wisdom is saying that is he overvalued because of it - then it may result in him losing enough value to make him an attactive acquistion target in startups if he falls far enough (of course always the risk of one owner jumping in early just because of the TDs).

 

[Concept Coop]

I'd put Jones on my list. Of course, the Packers could bring in someone else, but today, again, he's the starting XWR for one of the best offenses in the league. Based on upside, his current price is a steal. Well worth the risk, in my opion.His TD production might not hold, but if he is starting 16 games, instead fo the 11 or so he did this year, everything else has a good chance to go up.

 

[MAC_32]

Flipped the eighth pick and gates for Wayne and Vernon Davis. Very happy about that trade.

 

[TheFanatic]

I'd put Jones on my list. Of course, the Packers could bring in someone else, but today, again, he's the starting XWR for one of the best offenses in the league. Based on upside, his current price is a steal. Well worth the risk, in my opion.His TD production might not hold, but if he is starting 16 games, instead fo the 11 or so he did this year, everything else has a good chance to go up.

True, he started 16 games this year when he had 17 starts in the 5 years prior including 9 in his first year (2, 3, 3, 0 starts, respectively after that until the 16 this year) and he had a career high of 784 yards. But last year he had 0 starts and had 635 yards. The year before that he had 3 starts and 679.So even when he starts 16 games the yards just aren't there. Yes he got a ton of TD's. A TON!, but let's look at the games in which he didn't score a TD.Week 2: 2 catches -1 yardsWeek 3: 5 catches for 55Week 7: 6 catches for 53Week 8: 7 catches for 78Week 11: 2 for 33Week 14: 2 for 27In non PPR's he has only one mediocre game in there and five bad to really bad games. The TD's are going to happen less frequently and the production I listed above is going to happen much more frequently. At least IMO. There are a few WR's that have figured out what it takes to be elite late in their careers and that may happen with this guy, but the odds are against it. Monumentally against it. He's 00 on a roulette wheel and other WR's are red. The money play is to bet on red. Or black if you're Wesley Snipes. The safe bet is to sell this guy now with his miracle season and hope someone sees him repeating those numbers. If he was a third year guy doing this, I would be all over him, but I'll take a flyer on Jarret Boykin in a deep dynasty league for nothing and see what happens than pay for those 14 TD's that are going to regress way back to the mean in 2013.Full disclosure, I actually have Boykin on a roster in HA1!?!?!

 

[Concept Coop]

True, he started 16 games this year when he had 17 starts in the 5 years prior including 9 in his first year (2, 3, 3, 0 starts, respectively after that until the 16 this year) and he had a career high of 784 yards. But last year he had 0 starts and had 635 yards. The year before that he had 3 starts and 679.So even when he starts 16 games the yards just aren't there. Yes he got a ton of TD's. A TON!, but let's look at the games in which he didn't score a TD.Week 2: 2 catches -1 yardsWeek 3: 5 catches for 55Week 7: 6 catches for 53Week 8: 7 catches for 78Week 11: 2 for 33Week 14: 2 for 27In non PPR's he has only one mediocre game in there and five bad to really bad games. The TD's are going to happen less frequently and the production I listed above is going to happen much more frequently. At least IMO. There are a few WR's that have figured out what it takes to be elite late in their careers and that may happen with this guy, but the odds are against it. Monumentally against it. He's 00 on a roulette wheel and other WR's are red. The money play is to bet on red. Or black if you're Wesley Snipes. The safe bet is to sell this guy now with his miracle season and hope someone sees him repeating those numbers. If he was a third year guy doing this, I would be all over him, but I'll take a flyer on Jarret Boykin in a deep dynasty league for nothing and see what happens than pay for those 14 TD's that are going to regress way back to the mean in 2013.Full disclosure, I actually have Boykin on a roster in HA1!?!?!

He started 16 games because the Packers happened to open in 3 WR sets a few times; when everyone is healthy, he wasn't a starter. Rodgers is going to throw for close to 40 TDs next year, and both starting WRs are a good bet for 10. If that is Jones, he'll get 10 again next year. Show me someone that expects him to repeat and is willing to pay for the WR2 production he provided this year, and I'll call him a sell. But you're not getting those prices and those moving him for late 2nd rounders aren't being sneaky. The only reason Randall Cobb outscored him in PPR formats last year, was because of Cobb's rushing totals.Week 3: 5 catches for 55Week 7: 6 catches for 53Week 8: 7 catches for 78And these are bad games?!

 

[MAC_32]

Really having a hard time buying the Jones argument. He is an incredible talent... With an incredible ability to make bonehead plays too. There is no questioning his potential, but there is plenty of questions from the neck up. By all accounts there are none with Cobb. What would you rather roll the dice on? Jones probably has a bigger ceiling, but his floor is much much lower.

 

[Steed]

He got his head in the game this year and greatly reduced his drops. Those that are saying his tds will drop are stating the obvious, very few can catch 10+ in back to back years. But his yards can go up if Jennings and Finley leave.

 

[MAC_32]

He got his head in the game this year and greatly reduced his drops. Those that are saying his tds will drop are stating the obvious, very few can catch 10+ in back to back years. But his yards can go up if Jennings and Finley leave.

which year is the outlier?

 

[Concept Coop]

Really having a hard time buying the Jones argument. He is an incredible talent... With an incredible ability to make bonehead plays too. There is no questioning his potential, but there is plenty of questions from the neck up. By all accounts there are none with Cobb. What would you rather roll the dice on? Jones probably has a bigger ceiling, but his floor is much much lower.

Everyone would rather Cobb. But he's got a top 12 price-tag and Jones is a throw in. Again, many WRs could start for the Pack and do what Jones did. But they aren't in his situation.

 

[MAC_32]

Really having a hard time buying the Jones argument. He is an incredible talent... With an incredible ability to make bonehead plays too. There is no questioning his potential, but there is plenty of questions from the neck up. By all accounts there are none with Cobb. What would you rather roll the dice on? Jones probably has a bigger ceiling, but his floor is much much lower.

Everyone would rather Cobb. But he's got a top 12 price-tag and Jones is a throw in. Again, many WRs could start for the Pack and do what Jones did. But they aren't in his situation.

I am not buying either one. Don't think the potential reward is worth the risk with Jones, tried to buy Cobb last year and was shot down, obviously going to be much harder to acquire now.

 

[TheFanatic]

True, he started 16 games this year when he had 17 starts in the 5 years prior including 9 in his first year (2, 3, 3, 0 starts, respectively after that until the 16 this year) and he had a career high of 784 yards. But last year he had 0 starts and had 635 yards. The year before that he had 3 starts and 679.

So even when he starts 16 games the yards just aren't there. Yes he got a ton of TD's. A TON!, but let's look at the games in which he didn't score a TD.

Week 2: 2 catches -1 yards

Week 3: 5 catches for 55

Week 7: 6 catches for 53

Week 8: 7 catches for 78

Week 11: 2 for 33

Week 14: 2 for 27

In non PPR's he has only one mediocre game in there and five bad to really bad games.

The TD's are going to happen less frequently and the production I listed above is going to happen much more frequently. At least IMO.

There are a few WR's that have figured out what it takes to be elite late in their careers and that may happen with this guy, but the odds are against it. Monumentally against it. He's 00 on a roulette wheel and other WR's are red. The money play is to bet on red. Or black if you're Wesley Snipes. The safe bet is to sell this guy now with his miracle season and hope someone sees him repeating those numbers. If he was a third year guy doing this, I would be all over him, but I'll take a flyer on Jarret Boykin in a deep dynasty league for nothing and see what happens than pay for those 14 TD's that are going to regress way back to the mean in 2013.

Full disclosure, I actually have Boykin on a roster in HA1!?!?!

He started 16 games because the Packers happened to open in 3 WR sets a few times; when everyone is healthy, he wasn't a starter. Rodgers is going to throw for close to 40 TDs next year, and both starting WRs are a good bet for 10. If that is Jones, he'll get 10 again next year. Show me someone that expects him to repeat and is willing to pay for the WR2 production he provided this year, and I'll call him a sell. But you're not getting those prices and those moving him for late 2nd rounders aren't being sneaky. The only reason Randall Cobb outscored him in PPR formats last year, was because of Cobb's rushing totals.

Week 3: 5 catches for 55

Week 7: 6 catches for 53

Week 8: 7 catches for 78

And these are bad games?!

In a non PPR league the last one is the only decent game and that's not great. And he will not be the WR2 for this team. Very few WR's "figure it out" at 28. I don't think this one will. Enjoy the 14 TD's from last year but sell, sell, sell....

 

[Ernol]

Torrey is a one trick pony. All deep stuff and nothing else. Shorts is a better overall receiver and less feast-or-famine from an FF standpoint. I would rather have him.

Very common misperception imo. Just because Smith is incredibly gifted at getting deep, doesn’t mean that is all he can do. I only have to go so far as looking at his TDs this year to see its probably not the case. Touchdowns this year of 25, 5, 18, 19, 19, 47, 20, 6, 59, 32 are not indicative (to me) of a one-trick pony. Taking a look at his lines, I find additional evidence that its probably not the case. Lines like 6/97/1 with 10 targets and 5/88/1 with 11 targets are not indicative (to me) of a one-trick pony. Digging a little deeper and in going through the Raven’s games and plays involving Torrey and my conclusion is that he is not a one-trick pony. Would I have liked to have seen him do more in 2012 given the expectations, of course. Was I comfortable starting him week to week in 2012, not so much. But he only just finished his second year in the league. Patience is warranted here imo (which is the only reason I brought up Dez as people were jumping the gun on him as well for not yet having broken out after only his second year and part of the third).

Revisiting this discussion. Torrey taking that short pass to the house 77 yards is not indicative of a one-trick pony. Its very early still, but the preseason suggests so far that we may see a different Torrey this year. 4 targets, 4 catches, all short passes and one LONG run after the catch. As I said above, just because Torrey is incredibly gifted at the long ball, doesn't mean that is all he can do.

I am looking forward to sitting back and watching the breakout in 2013.