voiceofunreason
Footballguy
There's a link in his signature, if you want to check it out.Mike63 said:Bloom and Bramel post-draft rankings are out.
EBF, we are waiting for yours
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[DYNASTY] 2013 Top 20 Rookies (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
Yep, the link is in my sig. There have been quite a few changes since my first post.There's a link in his signature, if you want to check it out.Mike63 said:Bloom and Bramel post-draft rankings are out.
EBF, we are waiting for yours
cusefan115
Footballguy
Hey EBF,
Appreciate all the hardwork. The list looks great. I'm wondering where the top rookies would fit among your existing dynasty rankings though. Would Austin be a top 20 wr? Lacy a top 15 rb?
Thanks.
Appreciate all the hardwork. The list looks great. I'm wondering where the top rookies would fit among your existing dynasty rankings though. Would Austin be a top 20 wr? Lacy a top 15 rb?
Thanks.
EBF
Footballguy
Honestly haven't thought about it much.
I would strongly consider Eifert at TE4 after Graham/Gronk/Hernandez. You can take a guy like Witten or Rudolph ahead of him if you need points immediately, but I think he's right up there with those guys in terms of total remaining career value. I think he's a better talent than Rudolph.
I'd have Lacy valued a little bit below guys like Ridley and Morris. Bernard, Ball, and Bell wouldn't be that far behind. Probably somewhere in the 12-18 range. There aren't a lot of great young options at RB now in dynasty leagues and they benefit from that. Michael would be up there with guys like Pierce and Bryce Brown as a high talent/low opportunity kind of guy. Probably somewhere between RB18-RB25 on my rankings.
The issue with the WRs is that I'm not quite as high on any of the top 3 guys as the consensus. The earliest I can see myself taking Austin is around WR15. Patterson, Hopkins, and Hunter would probably check in around WR20-28. I have them in the same ballpark as Josh Gordon and Michael Floyd. Higher risk than some of the boring veterans, but more upside too.
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EBF
Footballguy
Shouldn't be a big surprise if you've read my final rankings, but here's my all-value team based on the drafts I've seen and participated in so far:
QB Ryan Nassib, Giants - Not sold on him, but many pundits liked him and he's dirt cheap. Possible starter down the line for the cost of a 4th round rookie pick.
RB Christine Michael, Seahawks - Arguably has more talent than Bernard/Ball/Bell/Lacy, but costs a lot less. I like that proposition.
RB Stepfan Taylor, Cardinals - My favorite of the day three backs. Mendy is on a one year deal and Taylor could benefit if he falters. He has everything but speed.
WR Josh Boyce, Patriots - Underrated athlete with rare size/speed combo. I rate him above Williams, Dobson, Bailey, Woods, Patton, Wheaton, and others.
WR Chris Harper, Seahawks - Unique package of skills for a possession WR. Strong with a jumbo frame and very good hands. More athletic than you think. Russell Wilson's James Jones, without the drops.
TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs - I rate him as the #2 FF TE in the class behind Eifert. Solid upside at a reasonable cost.
Escobar, Knile, McDonald, and a few others are consistently falling below where you'd expect given their NFL draft position. Could be good buys as well.
On the downside, really don't like where Bailey, Franklin, and Stacy are going. Also leery of Bell, Dobson, Gillislee, and Goodwin. Probably wouldn't even spend a 4th round pick on the latter two.
QB Ryan Nassib, Giants - Not sold on him, but many pundits liked him and he's dirt cheap. Possible starter down the line for the cost of a 4th round rookie pick.
RB Christine Michael, Seahawks - Arguably has more talent than Bernard/Ball/Bell/Lacy, but costs a lot less. I like that proposition.
RB Stepfan Taylor, Cardinals - My favorite of the day three backs. Mendy is on a one year deal and Taylor could benefit if he falters. He has everything but speed.
WR Josh Boyce, Patriots - Underrated athlete with rare size/speed combo. I rate him above Williams, Dobson, Bailey, Woods, Patton, Wheaton, and others.
WR Chris Harper, Seahawks - Unique package of skills for a possession WR. Strong with a jumbo frame and very good hands. More athletic than you think. Russell Wilson's James Jones, without the drops.
TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs - I rate him as the #2 FF TE in the class behind Eifert. Solid upside at a reasonable cost.
Escobar, Knile, McDonald, and a few others are consistently falling below where you'd expect given their NFL draft position. Could be good buys as well.
On the downside, really don't like where Bailey, Franklin, and Stacy are going. Also leery of Bell, Dobson, Gillislee, and Goodwin. Probably wouldn't even spend a 4th round pick on the latter two.
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Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
EBF, just curious, why do you have your initial rankings in this thread, but your final rankings on an entirely different message board?
EBF
Footballguy
My rankings are exclusive to FFToolbox now, but that wasn't the case when I started this thread.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Completely agree about Chris Harper. I wasn't a huge fan of Harper going into the draft, but I think the Seahawks is a pretty ideal situation for him. Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin are OK, but they're both somewhat undersized to play on the outside, and really, they're not all that talented that I'd call them significant obstacles; so I could see Harper usurping both of those guys sometime this season to get some decent playing time, as I expect Harvin will spend a good deal of his time in the slot. Not to mention Sidney Rice is far from a pillar of health, so I could see Harper starting sometime this season via a Rice injury as well. Harper's probably my #1 target of players drafted after the 3rd round.
I disagree about Stepfan Taylor though. In addition to his lack of speed, I question his vision, as he dances way too much in the backfield imo. I'd rather have his new teammate Andre Ellington, I think he might be able to get on the field early as an ideal COP back.
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Could someone post the link? I've got sigs turned off and it isn't in his profile.There's a link in his signature, if you want to check it out.Mike63 said:Bloom and Bramel post-draft rankings are out. EBF, we are waiting for yours
EBF
Footballguy
Pete Carroll said they envision Harper as an outside X receiver. I think he brings an element that none of their other guys do. Golden Tate is physical, but not like Harper. I think their ideal personnel group is Rice and Harper outside with Harvin in the slot.
I like Stepfan's game. Actually reminds me a bit of Doug Martin with his combination of power, quickness, and instincts. You don't see him taking a lot of big hits because he's so nimble and slippery that you can't get a clean shot on him. If he were a little faster I'd say he's probably the best back in the draft, but his physical limitations could pose some problems. I still think he'll be a solid backup and maybe more than that.
I like Ellington too and I think he was a good value pick by Arizona. I don't see him as a three down back though and I don't need a COOP back on my FF team.
Im afraid the benches in my dynasty leagues aren't deep enough to make stashing Nassib worth it. He doesn't have a skillset to ever be a QB1 (not now with the rise of dual threat QBs), and you will have to have him clog a roster spot for 2-3 years at least to get a sniff of that value. Maybe four. I agree that he is better than a typical fourth-round QB prospect, but I left him unranked because the possible reward later is not worth the cost of clogging a roster spot that you can use to cycle through WW options and get a similar or better reward much earlier.
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EBF
Footballguy
Yes, I think that's the plan. I am not looking to make a full-time gig out of FF, but when I do publish rankings and rookie stuff, that will be the place to find it.
EBF, I'm surprised by where you have Wheaton considering how high you were on him when you started this thread.
At the combine he checked in at 5'11", 189 lbs. That puts him at 26.4 BMI, which I think is close to guys like Wayne, Colston and Jennings. He still ran 4.40-4.45. Broad jump wasn't great, but in every other measurable he did very well. He has the good production to match those measurables. He got drafted by a team that has been good at drafting good WR after the first 2 rounds lately. If Arians were still the OC I'd feel better about his situation, but he still has a very good QB. Sure, they have Sanders and Brown, but Sanders is on a one year deal. If Wheaton plays well they may let him walk like they did with Wallace.
EBF
Footballguy
He was also only 183 pounds at the Senior Bowl weigh-in IIRC, so his actual playing weight might be lower. Size is going to limit his effectiveness. Probably to the extent that he'll end up as more of a complementary target than go-to guy. I've still got him rated ahead of guys like Goodwin, Williams, and Dobson. He's a solid player and a great fit for the Steelers. However, I think his upside is a bit limited.
EBF
Footballguy
For all the talk about rankings and hypotheticals, I think who you actually roster is one of the best indicators of who you really value in a given draft class.
With that in mind, here's the distribution of 2013 rookies across my 7 dynasty rosters now that all my rookie drafts are complete:
5 - Josh Boyce5 - Chris Harper4 - Tyler Eifert4 - Gavin Escobar4 - Spencer Ware3 - Stepfan Taylor2 - Christine Michael1 - Knile Davis1 - Justin Hunter1 - Travis Kelce1 - EJ Manuel
Eifert was my main target in the first round. He has low upside compared to some of the WR/RB available, but this year I chose to take the certain line drive single instead of swinging for the fences with a higher risk/higher reward type like Patterson or Ball.
Michael and Hunter were my main options in the 10-15 range. They each have their warts, but I think they're reasonable gambles at their respective sticker prices.
Boyce and Harper were my main targets in the 15-25 range. Really happy to have landed them in so many leagues. I took them higher than I needed to, but at the same time I think they're worth what I spent to get them.
I really like the value of Gavin Escobar at his ADP. He was a high NFL draft pick and all of the scouts/pundits like his game. He doesn't have the explosiveness of Kelce, but is a more fluid athlete. Really like his smooth routes, huge catch radius, and vacuum hands. The Witten factor, the lack of speed, and the low relative value of the TE position is pushing him DEEP into drafts behind many inferior prospects. I was happy to capitalize on that.
As for Taylor, he'll be a solid backup at worst and while I have some reservations about his horrendous workout numbers, he's too cheap to pass on.
With that in mind, here's the distribution of 2013 rookies across my 7 dynasty rosters now that all my rookie drafts are complete:
5 - Josh Boyce5 - Chris Harper4 - Tyler Eifert4 - Gavin Escobar4 - Spencer Ware3 - Stepfan Taylor2 - Christine Michael1 - Knile Davis1 - Justin Hunter1 - Travis Kelce1 - EJ Manuel
Eifert was my main target in the first round. He has low upside compared to some of the WR/RB available, but this year I chose to take the certain line drive single instead of swinging for the fences with a higher risk/higher reward type like Patterson or Ball.
Michael and Hunter were my main options in the 10-15 range. They each have their warts, but I think they're reasonable gambles at their respective sticker prices.
Boyce and Harper were my main targets in the 15-25 range. Really happy to have landed them in so many leagues. I took them higher than I needed to, but at the same time I think they're worth what I spent to get them.
I really like the value of Gavin Escobar at his ADP. He was a high NFL draft pick and all of the scouts/pundits like his game. He doesn't have the explosiveness of Kelce, but is a more fluid athlete. Really like his smooth routes, huge catch radius, and vacuum hands. The Witten factor, the lack of speed, and the low relative value of the TE position is pushing him DEEP into drafts behind many inferior prospects. I was happy to capitalize on that.
As for Taylor, he'll be a solid backup at worst and while I have some reservations about his horrendous workout numbers, he's too cheap to pass on.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm actually a pretty conservative drafter. Maybe to a point of fault sometimes.
I will go all-in for a player if I'm totally sold, but there aren't many prospects in a given draft class who inspire that degree of confidence.
az_prof
Footballguy
I took Taylor with the 3.11 largely because I was so impressed with his running style when I looked at film of him. He does everything right. And he did very well against top competition in the PAC 10. Can he really be that slow? Is it possible that he is faster with pads on? Speed is the only thing that can hold him back as you said. There are not many RBs in recent years who have been successful with times close to his 4.7 40 time but I did find a couple. Legarette Blount (4.7 Combine) had a 1000 yards as a rookie with Tampa. And believe it or not, but Arian Foster ran a 4.68 at the Combine. Alfred Morris a 4.67. Vick Ballard a 4.65.
EBF
Footballguy
I like his running style too. He's one for the purists. Not fast, but quick. Has some power. Good blocker and receiver. Mean stiff arm.
There have been successful RBs with poor combine numbers in the past (Gore, Benson, McCoy, Foster). It's hard to quantify vision and foot quickness. Look at McCoy. He's not that big. His speed is just average. On paper he's not an NFL caliber athlete, but he can stick his foot in the ground and cut on a dime. The innate ability to understand angles and use the defender's momentum against him is not something that shows up in workouts.
Taylor shows flashes of those skills. He's a fluid back with an innate ability to set up defenders and make sharp cuts. His legs are always moving and he almost never takes a big shot because he's so slippery. Reminds me a lot of Doug Martin from a running style standpoint. Just doesn't have that level of speed or explosiveness. He's never going to be a dynamic player or a big home run threat, but he can potentially be a serviceable grinder in the mold of Benson/Green-Ellis and his skills in the passing game give him three down upside.
I would never say that a 5th round pick with 4.7 speed is a lock for success, but he's a good investment relative to his ADP. He's been falling into the 30-40 range of my drafts. That's a good price when you consider the crazy high picks people are spending on compost like Franklin, Stacy, Murray, and Gillislee.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
The audible is really pimping Zach Stacy. At what point is he a must-add?
i think a big part of this question is how RB crazy your league is - ive seen stacy go top 10 in leagues where everyone fights over RB with even a glimmer of hope. I would say that around the mid 2nd I would bSabertooth said:
Mid 2nd sounds right to me as a place to trade up for Stacy. In my RB crazy leagues, he is going late 1st. I agree that the really high quality prospects in this class cut off at about 18-20. A trade like 1.9 for 2.2 and 2.6 is an excellent play this year.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
That's what I've done. I traded back thrice and added 3 first rounders in the 2014 draft to go with my own. Now I own 40% of the firsts....hehehe. But alas, I do not pick until 15th now and again till the 28th and 30th. So I am mining the depths a bit. Quick advice question specific to my team if you'd indulge me....I own David Wilson and Daryl Richardson. Andre Brown is unrostered and available in the rookie draft we have next week. At 15, if Stacy and Brown are there..who would you select and why?
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Stacy, the checkered health history of Andre breaks the tie imho. I wouldn't get blinders for Stacy yet though. Depends on the roster and the league, but there's some good WR value at that spot and Eifert may be there too.
Similar strategy with my 1's, I have 3 in 2014 as well and ended up with 2.12 and 3.1 this year. IDP league, so the value dips beyond 2.6-2.8, where the value falls off in non idp leagues imho.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I agree. I'm perfectly happy with Wheaton or Bailey in the 15-20 range. I think he could score just as many points as Hopkins or Patterson early on. Eifert might slide too.
EBF
Footballguy
I posted a few thoughts in a different thread yesterday. There have been a few changes. Nothing too radical.
If I were drafting today, I would have a top four of Michael, Bernard, Eifert, and Austin. Maybe in that order. Michael has been one of the big winner of the preseason for me. I was relatively optimistic about his chances due to his awesome workout numbers, but now that we've seen him translate that ability into consistent performance in practices and games, I think we can bump him up ahead of less gifted backs like Lacy, Ball, and Bell. Bernard should be a decent contributor at worst and I like Eifert's chances to be a perennial top 6-7 candidate at TE. I don't have a great read on Austin. He's an atypical player and difficult to assess for that reason. I'd give him a pretty high ranking solely on the basis of his draft slot and speed/quickness. The lack of size and outside WR skills is something that concerns me, but he could overcome that if he becomes a Cobb/Harvin type of weapon in the slot.
My next cluster of players would include Patterson, Hopkins, Lacy, and Hunter. This is about where I had them after the draft. None of them have done anything to impress me too much, but none of them have stunk so bad that they should be downgraded.
Things start to thin out quickly after that. Manuel has moved up a few spots. He was a little bit undervalued all along. I don't like Montee Ball that much as a long term prospect, but he has a chance to make a solid immediate impact. Wheaton should be a good WR2-WR3 for FF purposes. He'll most likely never be more than that though. I never liked LeVeon Bell and now that he's injured, I like him even less. I had Franklin and Stacy rated in the 20-30 range all along, so they never factored in this high for me. No change for Lattimoe, Allen, Woods. I'm still optimistic about Josh Boyce's chances of becoming a solid NFL contributor, but he never had WR1 potential in the first place and now Thompkins has stolen a march on him. I might drop him down a little bit, but I think he will be useful once he polishes the edges because he's such a great athlete. I had Chris Harper overrated by 5-10 spots initially. If I were drafting today I'd probably look at him as more of a 20-25 guy. The early reports have not been great, but it won't be time to panic unless Seattle cuts him. Kelce, McDonald, Escobar, and Ertz would likely move up a bit because the alternatives at WR/RB are weak once you get outside the first 12-15 picks. I am still not high on Dobson, T Williams, Goodwin, or Bailey at all. I would bump down Stepfan Taylor a little bit since he's looking like a career backup and not a guy who might sneak into a starting role.
Some longshots have emerged as decent propositions. Obviously the biggest name there is Kenbrell Thompkins. I'm still not sure he's a long term star, but I'd probably slot him in behind Hunter and ahead of Woods. At that point he's worth a shot. Seattle TE Luke Willson has quietly had a good offseason. I'm not sure what his FF future holds, but I expect him to become a decent player. Marlon Brown, Dennis Johnson, and Spencer Ware are worth a late punt.
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EBF
Footballguy
Also should add that this was always a tough class for me to gauge. Especially at WR. I felt like there were no clean prospects at that position. Everyone had some flaw or another, which made it difficult to get a good sense for where to rank them. The good news there is that this class is going to teach me a lot about what to prioritize in future WR classes.
What I always look for at the top of my rankings is a player with no flaws. Someone like Dez Bryant or Trent Richardson would qualify. I guess those guys could've run a little faster, but realistically there was nothing missing. When you have a player like this, he's very likely to be successful. The problem is that there might only be 2-3 of those guys in a given draft class and they'll usually go in the first round of the NFL draft. Once you get outside the first few picks, you're left to choose from a variety of players who have standout qualities in certain aspects of the game, but are lacking in other areas. That pretty much sums up most of the players in this WR class. For example...
Tavon Austin - Good speed and draft slot. Atypical size.
Justin Hunter - Good production and explosiveness. Almost off-the-charts skinny.
Robert Woods - Good route running and hands. Poor workout numbers.
Chris Harper - Huge frame and good hands. Poor broad jump. Lacks explosiveness in his routes.
I'm curious to see what happens to some of these guys over the next 2-3 years, as that's going to help me rank players in the future.
One thing I've noticed about this class is that most of the WR prospects who stood out in the receiving drills at the combine (Sanders, Woods, Hopkins, Boyce) have seemingly acclimated well to the pro game. Some of the guys who looked a little more awkward or less impressive in that environment (Rogers, Harper, Goard) have not. You could extend that to the TEs, as Eifert and McDonald (who both looked solid there) seem to be doing pretty well. That's something that I'm going to put more emphasis on in the future. When you see all of these guys in a neutral setting where they can't hide behind pads or uniforms, you can get a more accurate sense for their movement skills.
What I always look for at the top of my rankings is a player with no flaws. Someone like Dez Bryant or Trent Richardson would qualify. I guess those guys could've run a little faster, but realistically there was nothing missing. When you have a player like this, he's very likely to be successful. The problem is that there might only be 2-3 of those guys in a given draft class and they'll usually go in the first round of the NFL draft. Once you get outside the first few picks, you're left to choose from a variety of players who have standout qualities in certain aspects of the game, but are lacking in other areas. That pretty much sums up most of the players in this WR class. For example...
Tavon Austin - Good speed and draft slot. Atypical size.
Justin Hunter - Good production and explosiveness. Almost off-the-charts skinny.
Robert Woods - Good route running and hands. Poor workout numbers.
Chris Harper - Huge frame and good hands. Poor broad jump. Lacks explosiveness in his routes.
I'm curious to see what happens to some of these guys over the next 2-3 years, as that's going to help me rank players in the future.
One thing I've noticed about this class is that most of the WR prospects who stood out in the receiving drills at the combine (Sanders, Woods, Hopkins, Boyce) have seemingly acclimated well to the pro game. Some of the guys who looked a little more awkward or less impressive in that environment (Rogers, Harper, Goard) have not. You could extend that to the TEs, as Eifert and McDonald (who both looked solid there) seem to be doing pretty well. That's something that I'm going to put more emphasis on in the future. When you see all of these guys in a neutral setting where they can't hide behind pads or uniforms, you can get a more accurate sense for their movement skills.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
These were my rankings immediately after the draft:
QB: None -- E.J. Manuel -- M Barkley, G Smith
RB: None -- Bernard, Michael, Lacy -- Davis, Lattimore, Murray, Stacy
WR: None -- D Hopkins -- Q Patton, S Bailey, C Johnson
TE: Eifert -- None -- Z Ertz, G Escobar, T Kelce
The dashes are tierings.
Wouldn't change anything that I can see.
Michael was a 2nd tier guy instead of first based on the character and injury concerns. So at whatever point you're convinced he's on the straight and narrow you could bump him up to tier one.
As a small school guy Charles Johnson is someone who I'd expect will take some time to adjust. The injury obviously didn't speed that up either.
The Bell, Ball, Franklin, Dobson, Da' Rogers and K Allen omissions looking pretty solid too.
I struggled a ton with Austin and Patterson, but decided to leave them off. If I miss on those guys it will be spectacularly wrong.
In terms of UDFAs I'd move C.J. Anderson and Marlon Brown into the third tiers at their respective positions. I'm still on the fence/not completely convinced about Thompkins, which pretty much means I have to count him as a miss if he pans out.
QB: None -- E.J. Manuel -- M Barkley, G Smith
RB: None -- Bernard, Michael, Lacy -- Davis, Lattimore, Murray, Stacy
WR: None -- D Hopkins -- Q Patton, S Bailey, C Johnson
TE: Eifert -- None -- Z Ertz, G Escobar, T Kelce
The dashes are tierings.
Wouldn't change anything that I can see.
Michael was a 2nd tier guy instead of first based on the character and injury concerns. So at whatever point you're convinced he's on the straight and narrow you could bump him up to tier one.
As a small school guy Charles Johnson is someone who I'd expect will take some time to adjust. The injury obviously didn't speed that up either.
The Bell, Ball, Franklin, Dobson, Da' Rogers and K Allen omissions looking pretty solid too.
I struggled a ton with Austin and Patterson, but decided to leave them off. If I miss on those guys it will be spectacularly wrong.
In terms of UDFAs I'd move C.J. Anderson and Marlon Brown into the third tiers at their respective positions. I'm still on the fence/not completely convinced about Thompkins, which pretty much means I have to count him as a miss if he pans out.
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