[DYNASTY] 2013 Top 20 Rookies (1 Viewer)

[BeTheMatch]

One thing that hasn't changed throughout the offseason is my view that this is a bad, bad draft class. I traded for some extra picks last year, giving up picks this year, and I couldn't be happier with that decision in hindsight.

Sure, there will be some guys that turn out from this class, but it just seems to be the worst fantasy draft class that I can recall in many years - at least going into it. I'm excited about exactly no one, except maybe - maybe - Tavon Austin, and he could very well end up as the next Dexter McCluster. Or worse.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

One thing that hasn't changed throughout the offseason is my view that this is a bad, bad draft class. I traded for some extra picks last year, giving up picks this year, and I couldn't be happier with that decision in hindsight.

Sure, there will be some guys that turn out from this class, but it just seems to be the worst fantasy draft class that I can recall in many years - at least going into it. I'm excited about exactly no one, except maybe - maybe - Tavon Austin, and he could very well end up as the next Dexter McCluster. Or worse.

I think it is a very bad class of QBs, and outside of Lacy, it's a bad class of RBs too. Obviously that has an impact on the draft class as a whole. However, I think it will turn out to be a good class of WRs and TEs. Likely 4-6 WRs/TEs go in RD 1 this year, and another 4-6 go in RD 2.

 

[Banemorth]

One thing that hasn't changed throughout the offseason is my view that this is a bad, bad draft class. I traded for some extra picks last year, giving up picks this year, and I couldn't be happier with that decision in hindsight.

Sure, there will be some guys that turn out from this class, but it just seems to be the worst fantasy draft class that I can recall in many years - at least going into it. I'm excited about exactly no one, except maybe - maybe - Tavon Austin, and he could very well end up as the next Dexter McCluster. Or worse.

I think it is a very bad class of QBs, and outside of Lacy, it's a bad class of RBs too. Obviously that has an impact on the draft class as a whole. However, I think it will turn out to be a good class of WRs and TEs. Likely 4-6 WRs/TEs go in RD 1 this year, and another 4-6 go in RD 2.

It's shaping up to be great for those of us in IDP heavy leagues too.

 

[EBF]

I don't understand how your rankings can have so much change.

You just listed 10 RBs and 14 WRs, the original list was of 20 with QB/TE, so I get that it was smaller. But now you have 5 RBs and 4 WRs that were previously unranked, ranked. Including the 2nd/5th best RBs and the 5th best WR. How can that be?

Furthermore, you have some large movement. Marcus Wheaton was ranked as your #1 prospect at the start of this thread and he's now your #10 WR, let alone whatever ranked prospect. I would think that someone would have to tear an ACL at the combine to have that big of a change.

Some other big movers:

-Marcus Davis, who you were really high on, went down 8 spots in the WR rankings.

-Marquess Wilson down 8 spots in the WR rankings.

-Cordarrelle Patterson, whom you have consistently discussed is "overrated" has improved 8 spots.

-Da'Rick Rogers up 5 spots in the WR rankings

-Quitton Patton up 4 spots in the WR rankings

I can see guys moving a couple of spots, but not this dramatic. I honestly question how much you watch these players because the combine/pro day/senior bowl should affect them by this much. It's like you enjoy going for shock value intially and then fall back towards the mean/consensus.

The initial rankings are a starting point. After that, I am constantly reevaluating the players and taking new information into consideration. That means reading other opinions, following the all star games, going back and looking at the players time and time again, and assessing what the measurements from the combine/pro day might say about a player's outlook. By the end of the process you get a list that's much more solid.

If you never change anything, you get accused of being too rigid. If you react to new information and keep an open mind, you get posts like the one above. My main concern is ending up with the best list possible by the time the draft rolls around. I think the best way to do that is to develop an initial set of opinions early in the process and then challenge them to see what sticks.

Never changing isn't the issue, it's changing so much makes me wonder how much scouting you initially did.

I actually saw more games this year than in any of the past several years.

The goal of the process is to have the best rankings possible by the time the NFL draft and my FF drafts come along. With that in mind, where I had people in January is largely irrelevant. It's a starting point. Nothing more.

There is definitely a fine line between having too much/too little faith in your initial gut reaction. Like I said previously, I think the best method is to develop an initial set of opinions and then challenge them to see what holds up. That's essentially what I've done this year.

 

[TheFanatic]

One thing that hasn't changed throughout the offseason is my view that this is a bad, bad draft class. I traded for some extra picks last year, giving up picks this year, and I couldn't be happier with that decision in hindsight.

Sure, there will be some guys that turn out from this class, but it just seems to be the worst fantasy draft class that I can recall in many years - at least going into it. I'm excited about exactly no one, except maybe - maybe - Tavon Austin, and he could very well end up as the next Dexter McCluster. Or worse.

I think it is a very bad class of QBs, and outside of Lacy, it's a bad class of RBs too. Obviously that has an impact on the draft class as a whole. However, I think it will turn out to be a good class of WRs and TEs. Likely 4-6 WRs/TEs go in RD 1 this year, and another 4-6 go in RD 2.

I sold a bunch of players last year for picks (total rebuild around Rodgers, Morris, Shorts, Crabtree, and Michael Floyd). I have the 1.1, 1.4, 1.8 and 2.1 (12 teamer). I'll be taking Lacy at 1.1. After that I load up on WR's and am pretty happy with having all those high picks. I think the picks farther out (3rd and 4th round) the pickens will be slim, but there are plenty of quality players in the first 13 for me. Lacy, about 6-8 WR's, a couple SOLID TE's, and then you throw in Lattimore somewhere in there and some guy drafted to the right place. If any of Christine Michael, LeVeon Bell, Montee Ball wind up in either Pitt or GB then those guys are going to be first rounders too.

 

[ctrlaltdefeat]

The talent is so thin that any of those running backs could be the number 1 pick based on what team drafts them and that's drafting by need, which rarely works out. Tells you the talent is the same from pick 1 to 10. Or even more than that.

 

[EBF]

Getting close to a final set of pre-draft rankings. Here are some updated positional rankings with very brief bullet points for each player:

Eddie Lacy - Not amazing, but solid in every way. Plug him in and he should be decent.
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Gio Bernard - Average athletic qualities. Good instincts, hands, and playmaking ability. Floor is Vereen. Ceiling is a less dynamic McCoy or Rice.
-----------
Christine Michael - Underachieving workout warrior. Injury prone. Probably not an above average NFL starter, but has enough raw talent to be serviceable at times.
Marcus Lattimore - Has some dynamic qualities and also some obvious red flags. Could flash in stretches like Murray. Looks like he will never stay healthy though.
-----------------
Stepfan Taylor - Plays better than he tests. No long speed, but strong and quick. Good pass catcher. Could surprise despite horrid workout numbers.
Knile Davis - Has some interesting qualities. Dynamic speed. Not elusive. Upright build despite listed height/weight. Boom or bust prospect with high upside.
Montee Ball - Slightly below average athlete. Still has enough size and decent instincts/quickness. Could thrive in spurts. Long term, probably a backup talent.
Spencer Ware - Has the size and pass catching ability of an every down back. Runs tight. Lacks elusiveness. Takes too many big hits.




Justin Hunter - Vertically explosive. Can get downfield with his long strides. Tall frame, but very thin. Long strider who could struggle to separate on shorter routes.
Da'Rick Rogers - Good production and workout numbers. Good frame and physical game. Does not play as explosive as he tests. Not a great route runner.
Cordarrelle Patterson - Excellent height/weight/speed combo. Dynamic open field runner. Not a clean route runner though. Very raw. High upside, but huge bust risk.
-----------------
Keenan Allen - Tweener. Not as heavy as a typical possession WR and not as fast as a typical finesse WR. Good hands and quickness. Fluid. Looks good on tape. Unique package of qualities makes him difficult to assess.
Tavon Austin - Explosive slot potential. No height and not very stocky. Undeniable talent, but could end up being more of a niche/complementary player than a go-to guy.
Josh Boyce - Best athlete at WR in the draft. Strong, fast, and smooth. Not a jump ball threat and did not dominate in college. Also has injury issues (broken foot).
Chris Harper - Monster frame, smooth runner, and strong hands. Very good possession WR potential. Main weakness is lack of explosive burst in his routes.
Robert Woods - Profiles as an ideal #2 receiver or 1B option on a team that won't demand him to do it all himself. Natural WR. Good routes and hands. Not quite a great athlete.
Markus Wheaton - Explosive and productive. He will be dangerous as a versatile deep threat. His lack of size and possession skills limits his upside.
Quinton Patton - Good frame, but just average athletic ability. A jack of all trades and master of none. Quick. Productive. Fluid. Tough. Lack of standout traits means he won't have a major edge over NFL corners in any given category.
DeAndre Hopkins - Overrated prospect who lacks dynamic qualities to be a #1. Tough and rangy possession WR. No downfield speed. YAC skills don't impress me.
-----------------
Marcus Davis - Boom or bust prospect. Monster frame. Strong, long arms, huge catch radius and better hands than you'd think. Route running is a little rough. Also has question marks about desire/attitude and instincts. High ceiling and should be drafted higher than projected based on potential.
Ryan Swope - Tested really well. Doesn't quite play up the numbers. Not a fluid or efficient mover. In the right system could end up being a productive downfield receiver. Jordy Nelson comparison would be a bit lazy, but there are some similarities.
Marquess Wilson - Rail thin and doesn't have ideal speed given his lack of strength. Fluid route runner and has rare body control and jump ball skills.



Tyler Eifert - The safest skill prospect in the draft and the one guy I would take in the first round if I were an NFL GM. Not an amazing athlete, but a good one with no weaknesses. Tall with above average speed and quick feet. Good natural receiver with body control and jump ball talent. A half step down from Jimmy Graham, but still a top 5-6 dynasty TE out of the box.
----------------
Zach Ertz - A bit overrated IMO. Decent vertical threat with good receiving skills. More of a straight line target and doesn't really wow me on film.
Gavin Escobar - A less athletic Eifert. Does everything well. Tall with good range and hands. Just not quite a dynamic athlete.
----------------

Vance McDonald - On paper, a Cooley/Fred Davis type of TE with rare height/weight/speed. Raw with inconsistent hands. Compelling upside.
Travis Kelce - Rare tools on paper. Did not look quite that explosive on game day. Still has starting potential and a good degree of upside.

NOTES:

- I probably sound like a broken record by now, but I'll just say it once again. This is not a good draft class at the top. In a lot of ways it reminds me of the Moreno/Wells class in the sense that I don't have a lot of faith in the players who figure to go high in the rookie draft. Lacy is solid, but not a lock to become a cornerstone player. The WRs all carry massive risk. I would say the top three guys on my board are just as likely to fail as succeed. Austin should be a good NFL player, but his diminutive size adds an element of bust potential to him as well.

- In terms of getting good value for your picks, I think the sweet spot will be around #8-15. While I think players like Patterson, Hopkins, and Austin are worth less than what you will have to pay to get them, the reverse might be true of players like Rogers, Hunter, Boyce, Woods, and Harper if they're available in the late 1st-early 2nd area. As I've said many times, this class lacks bankable stars at WR, but the depth is excellent. There are 10+ guys who have a chance to be decent NFL starters.

- This is probably the worst RB class I've seen in a long time. Lacy and Bernard are okay. A few other guys have some potential if they catch the right breaks. As a lot of evaluators have pointed out, the issue with this class is that most of the players who have speed/elusiveness don't have the size and most of the players who have the size don't have the speed/elusiveness. Given how deep this WR class is, I doubt that overrated prospects like Bell, Ellington, and Franklin are going to offer good return on your investment.

- On the flipside, this is a pretty good TE class. Eifert is a can't-miss prospect who should at least become a Gresham/Rudolph/Pitta/Olsen level performer. Ertz and Escobar have starting potential. Kelce and McDonald have special athletic qualities and will likely be chosen in the first 100 picks in a few weeks.

 

[werdnoynek]

good stuff EBF, i like that you're sticking to your guns on hunter. while it's not the most popular position, i've got to agree with you. to me he has the highest ceiling of the WR's and i love his potential.

i'm still amazed you do not rank jonathan franklin among the michael / lattimore tier if not higher. you've given your stance on him, but i'll be shocked if he isn't a top 5 RB taken. he deserves to be on that list IMO.

 

[EBF]

i'm still amazed you do not rank jonathan franklin among the michael / lattimore tier if not higher. you've given your stance on him, but i'll be shocked if he isn't a top 5 RB taken. he deserves to be on that list IMO.

It sounds like he'll be a 2nd-3rd round pick. He should probably be higher on my list, but I'm not really a fan of his game. It's a situation like Pead/Hillman last year where I think the guy just isn't as good as everyone is saying. Remember that something like 50-65% of second round picks fail.

As far as the Pac-12 backs go, I think Stepfan Taylor shows more of an NFL type of skill set with his leg drive, phone booth quickness, and ability as pass protector/receiver. Franklin has speed and not much else.

 

[ShaHBucks]

good stuff EBF, i like that you're sticking to your guns on hunter. while it's not the most popular position, i've got to agree with you. to me he has the highest ceiling of the WR's and i love his potential.

His 9 td's came from playing Georgia St, Akron, Troy and Kentucky. Wtf? Did nothing in the SEC and He's going to get mangled in the NFL at 6'4 196

 

[werdnoynek]

good stuff EBF, i like that you're sticking to your guns on hunter. while it's not the most popular position, i've got to agree with you. to me he has the highest ceiling of the WR's and i love his potential.

His 9 td's came from playing Georgia St, Akron, Troy and Kentucky. Wtf? Did nothing in the SEC and He's going to get mangled in the NFL at 6'4 196

that 196 was about 10lbs lighter than his playing weight. he had 5 TD's against SEC teams as a freshman... so what?

 

[ShaHBucks]

good stuff EBF, i like that you're sticking to your guns on hunter. while it's not the most popular position, i've got to agree with you. to me he has the highest ceiling of the WR's and i love his potential.

His 9 td's came from playing Georgia St, Akron, Troy and Kentucky. Wtf? Did nothing in the SEC and He's going to get mangled in the NFL at 6'4 196

that 196 was about 10lbs lighter than his playing weight. he had 5 TD's against SEC teams as a freshman... so what?

Anyone can get stronger, that isn't my main concern. I don't really care what a prospect did vs Troy. I look at the tougher opponents. His SEC numbers scream FRAUD or just ok as a 3rd-4th receiver. He wasn't even the guy on his own team, he was eating Patterson's scraps. How can he carry a NFL offense?

 

[werdnoynek]

good stuff EBF, i like that you're sticking to your guns on hunter. while it's not the most popular position, i've got to agree with you. to me he has the highest ceiling of the WR's and i love his potential.

His 9 td's came from playing Georgia St, Akron, Troy and Kentucky. Wtf? Did nothing in the SEC and He's going to get mangled in the NFL at 6'4 196

that 196 was about 10lbs lighter than his playing weight. he had 5 TD's against SEC teams as a freshman... so what?

Anyone can get stronger, that isn't my main concern. I don't really care what a prospect did vs Troy. I look at the tougher opponents. His SEC numbers scream FRAUD or just ok as a 3rd-4th receiver. He wasn't even the guy on his own team, he was eating Patterson's scraps. How can he carry a NFL offense?

that doesn't make much sense when you look at the stats, which makes it clear you didn't. may want to do that before making such a bold, yet completely false, statement next time.

 

[EBF]

His SEC numbers scream FRAUD or just ok as a 3rd-4th receiver. He wasn't even the guy on his own team, he was eating Patterson's scraps.

Think you might have that backwards. Patterson only had one 100+ yard game all season and it was against Troy.

Hunter had more yards, receptions, and TDs. He had 4 100+ yard games and 70+ yard games against Florida and Alabama.

Patterson: 46 catches, 778 yards, 5 TDs

Hunter: 73 catches, 1083 yards, 9 TDs

Patterson is fun after the catch, but when I watched his highlights I always found my eyes drifting towards Hunter. Is he a lock prospect? No, definitely not. He's a long strider and not necessarily a physical possession guy. He has strength/durability issues. Dropped a lot of passes last year. He also has some special qualities though with a 6'4" frame, 4.4 speed, a 39.5" vertical, and a sick 11'4" broad jump (best of any player at the combine). He's not going to be the perfect WR for every system, but his strides are going to eat people up and he could be a massive weapon for the right team.

 

[werdnoynek]

His SEC numbers scream FRAUD or just ok as a 3rd-4th receiver. He wasn't even the guy on his own team, he was eating Patterson's scraps.

Think you might have that backwards. Patterson only had one 100+ yard game all season and it was against Troy.

Hunter had more yards, receptions, and TDs. He had 4 100+ yard games and 70+ yard games against Florida and Alabama.

Patterson: 46 catches, 778 yards, 5 TDs

Hunter: 73 catches, 1083 yards, 9 TDs

Patterson is fun after the catch, but when I watched his highlights I always found my eyes drifting towards Hunter. Is he a lock prospect? No, definitely not. He's a long strider and not necessarily a physical possession guy. He has strength/durability issues. Dropped a lot of passes last year. He also has some special qualities though with a 6'4" frame, 4.4 speed, a 39.5" vertical, and a sick 11'4" broad jump (best of any player at the combine). He's not going to be the perfect WR for every system, but his strides are going to eat people up and he could be a massive weapon for the right team.

 

[ShaHBucks]

His SEC numbers scream FRAUD or just ok as a 3rd-4th receiver. He wasn't even the guy on his own team, he was eating Patterson's scraps.

Think you might have that backwards. Patterson only had one 100+ yard game all season and it was against Troy. Hunter had more yards, receptions, and TDs. He had 4 100+ yard games and 70+ yard games against Florida and Alabama. Patterson: 46 catches, 778 yards, 5 TDsHunter: 73 catches, 1083 yards, 9 TDs Patterson is fun after the catch, but when I watched his highlights I always found my eyes drifting towards Hunter. Is he a lock prospect? No, definitely not. He's a long strider and not necessarily a physical possession guy. He has strength/durability issues. Dropped a lot of passes last year. He also has some special qualities though with a 6'4" frame, 4.4 speed, a 39.5" vertical, and a sick 11'4" broad jump (best of any player at the combine). He's not going to be the perfect WR for every system, but his strides are going to eat people up and he could be a massive weapon for the right team.

With 507 yards and 9 td coming from Troy, Akron, G st, and Kentucky.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Other than Hunter you have the best ranking I've seen on the internet(by far). I olny mentioned to see why you really like him giving wha im seeing.. I think I'll gamble on Knile Davis and Christine Michael in most of my drafts. Not too many chances at elite in this draft. And follow your advice on Eifert.

 

[Donnybrook]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

 

[werdnoynek]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

that's way off base imo... dobson has great hands and can adjust with some of the best (see "the catch") but he's not a playmaker with the ball in his hands and is very inconsistent with routes and just playing the position in general. dobson could be a solid #2 guy but he needs work to get there imo. he will take time to develop and could never make an impact in the NFL.

allen is already a #2 who could become a #1. allen is a technician and an excellent route runner. he can make things happen in space and has quickness that won't show up running in a straight line. he can make an instant impact in the NFL and doesn't need time to develop.

 

[Xue]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

that's way off base imo... dobson has great hands and can adjust with some of the best (see "the catch") but he's not a playmaker with the ball in his hands and is very inconsistent with routes and just playing the position in general. dobson could be a solid #2 guy but he needs work to get there imo. he will take time to develop and could never make an impact in the NFL.

allen is already a #2 who could become a #1. allen is a technician and an excellent route runner. he can make things happen in space and has quickness that won't show up running in a straight line. he can make an instant impact in the NFL and doesn't need time to develop.

I don't think it's that far off. YAC is overrated for a WR. Dobson is very good in the Redzone. He was one of the better WRs in practice at the Senior Bowl.

 

[werdnoynek]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

that's way off base imo... dobson has great hands and can adjust with some of the best (see "the catch") but he's not a playmaker with the ball in his hands and is very inconsistent with routes and just playing the position in general. dobson could be a solid #2 guy but he needs work to get there imo. he will take time to develop and could never make an impact in the NFL.

allen is already a #2 who could become a #1. allen is a technician and an excellent route runner. he can make things happen in space and has quickness that won't show up running in a straight line. he can make an instant impact in the NFL and doesn't need time to develop.

I don't think it's that far off. YAC is overrated for a WR. Dobson is very good in the Redzone. He was one of the better WRs in practice at the Senior Bowl.

i agree dodson is a redzone threat. but it doesn't make him everything allen is advertised to be. allen wasn't advertised as a redzone threat... maynard could rarely get it to him in the redzone.

 

[JohnnyU]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

that's way off base imo... dobson has great hands and can adjust with some of the best (see "the catch") but he's not a playmaker with the ball in his hands and is very inconsistent with routes and just playing the position in general. dobson could be a solid #2 guy but he needs work to get there imo. he will take time to develop and could never make an impact in the NFL.

allen is already a #2 who could become a #1. allen is a technician and an excellent route runner. he can make things happen in space and has quickness that won't show up running in a straight line. he can make an instant impact in the NFL and doesn't need time to develop.

I don't think it's that far off. YAC is overrated for a WR. Dobson is very good in the Redzone. He was one of the better WRs in practice at the Senior Bowl.

Practice?

 

[jonboltz]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

I refuse to believe a guy that was third on his own Conference USA team in receiving is going to be better than Allen. I'll take my chances that I'm completely missing the boat on Dobson, but if he ends up being productive in the NFL, its going to be a pretty big outlier based on his profile.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Am I the only one who thinks that Tavon Austin is already in the NFL under the name Andrew Hawkins?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Am I the only one who thinks that Tavon Auston is already in the NFL under the name Andrew Hawkins?

yes

 

[Nero]

Am I the only one who thinks that Tavon Auston is already in the NFL under the name Andrew Hawkins?

I think Austin is a slightly better version, but he is definitely not far off.

 

[Xue]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

that's way off base imo... dobson has great hands and can adjust with some of the best (see "the catch") but he's not a playmaker with the ball in his hands and is very inconsistent with routes and just playing the position in general. dobson could be a solid #2 guy but he needs work to get there imo. he will take time to develop and could never make an impact in the NFL.

allen is already a #2 who could become a #1. allen is a technician and an excellent route runner. he can make things happen in space and has quickness that won't show up running in a straight line. he can make an instant impact in the NFL and doesn't need time to develop.

I don't think it's that far off. YAC is overrated for a WR. Dobson is very good in the Redzone. He was one of the better WRs in practice at the Senior Bowl.

Practice?

The Senior Bowl practices brought out the best in a lot of the guys. Markus Wheaton, who was already though of highly, did some things I didn't see much on tape as far as route running.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Whats really the knock on Patton? I thinks he's a B athlete with A hands. I'd put him somewhere over Stevie Johnson but a touch less than Reggie Wayne because of athleticism. He torched the tough parts of his schedule when everyone knew he was getting the ball.

10/13 Texas A&M L 59-57 21 233 11.1 62 4 1 -5 -5.0 0 0

http://youtu.be/eUVYuKAjDIo

 

[EBF]

Whats really the knock on Patton? I thinks he's a B athlete with A hands. I'd put him somewhere over Stevie Johnson but a touch less than Reggie Wayne because of athleticism. He torched the tough parts of his schedule when everyone knew he was getting the ball.

10/13 Texas A&M L 59-57 21 233 11.1 62 4 1 -5 -5.0 0 0

http://youtu.be/eUVYuKAjDIo

I think the main knock is that he doesn't have any one single outstanding physical trait. Draft Scout has him at a 4.48 40, which is odd because NFL.com has him at a 4.53. That's not slow, but it's also not fast by NFL standards. Combine the average time with his average jump numbers in Indy (33" vertical and 9'10" broad jump) and it suggests a player who doesn't quite have the plus athletic traits to consistently gain an edge over any corner who lines up against him.

I don't hate his game though. He has actually been on my radar since before the 2012 season. Fluid athlete. Agile and efficient. Sturdy frame. Good demeanor and character for the NFL. I think he's likely to become a solid player. I just don't think he's going to be a guy who's so talented that he can transcend any situation. He's more like a Nate Burleson or Eric Decker. On the right team, he can produce. On the wrong team, he's going to be a WR4/bye week type for FF purposes.

 

[Xue]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

I refuse to believe a guy that was third on his own Conference USA team in receiving is going to be better than Allen. I'll take my chances that I'm completely missing the boat on Dobson, but if he ends up being productive in the NFL, its going to be a pretty big outlier based on his profile.

Other guys stepped up and the ball was spread around more. I mean I haven't heard anyone knocking Tyler Eifert's "lack" of production. For a guy many claim to be elite and have no questions about, his numbers are near identical to teammate TJ Jones.

 

[Xue]

Whats really the knock on Patton? I thinks he's a B athlete with A hands. I'd put him somewhere over Stevie Johnson but a touch less than Reggie Wayne because of athleticism. He torched the tough parts of his schedule when everyone knew he was getting the ball.

10/13 Texas A&M L 59-57 21 233 11.1 62 4 1 -5 -5.0 0 0

http://youtu.be/eUVYuKAjDIo

I think the main knock is that he doesn't have any one single outstanding physical trait. Draft Scout has him at a 4.48 40, which is odd because NFL.com has him at a 4.53. That's not slow, but it's also not fast by NFL standards. Combine the average time with his average jump numbers in Indy (33" vertical and 9'10" broad jump) and it suggests a player who doesn't quite have the plus athletic traits to consistently gain an edge over any corner who lines up against him.

I don't hate his game though. He has actually been on my radar since before the 2012 season. Fluid athlete. Agile and efficient. Sturdy frame. Good demeanor and character for the NFL. I think he's likely to become a solid player. I just don't think he's going to be a guy who's so talented that he can transcend any situation. He's more like a Nate Burleson or Eric Decker. On the right team, he can produce. On the wrong team, he's going to be a WR4/bye week type for FF purposes.

Whats really the knock on Patton? I thinks he's a B athlete with A hands. I'd put him somewhere over Stevie Johnson but a touch less than Reggie Wayne because of athleticism. He torched the tough parts of his schedule when everyone knew he was getting the ball.

10/13 Texas A&M L 59-57 21 233 11.1 62 4 1 -5 -5.0 0 0

http://youtu.be/eUVYuKAjDIo

I think the main knock is that he doesn't have any one single outstanding physical trait. Draft Scout has him at a 4.48 40, which is odd because NFL.com has him at a 4.53. That's not slow, but it's also not fast by NFL standards. Combine the average time with his average jump numbers in Indy (33" vertical and 9'10" broad jump) and it suggests a player who doesn't quite have the plus athletic traits to consistently gain an edge over any corner who lines up against him.

I don't hate his game though. He has actually been on my radar since before the 2012 season. Fluid athlete. Agile and efficient. Sturdy frame. Good demeanor and character for the NFL. I think he's likely to become a solid player. I just don't think he's going to be a guy who's so talented that he can transcend any situation. He's more like a Nate Burleson or Eric Decker. On the right team, he can produce. On the wrong team, he's going to be a WR4/bye week type for FF purposes.

For the record, Patton has a really good 10-yard split. He also has very good shuttle and 3-cone times. He knows how to shake a corner and get open. That's his strength. Gets off the line really quick as well.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Whats really the knock on Patton? I thinks he's a B athlete with A hands. I'd put him somewhere over Stevie Johnson but a touch less than Reggie Wayne because of athleticism. He torched the tough parts of his schedule when everyone knew he was getting the ball.

10/13 Texas A&M L 59-57 21 233 11.1 62 4 1 -5 -5.0 0 0

http://youtu.be/eUVYuKAjDIo

I think the main knock is that he doesn't have any one single outstanding physical trait. Draft Scout has him at a 4.48 40, which is odd because NFL.com has him at a 4.53. That's not slow, but it's also not fast by NFL standards. Combine the average time with his average jump numbers in Indy (33" vertical and 9'10" broad jump) and it suggests a player who doesn't quite have the plus athletic traits to consistently gain an edge over any corner who lines up against him.

I don't hate his game though. He has actually been on my radar since before the 2012 season. Fluid athlete. Agile and efficient. Sturdy frame. Good demeanor and character for the NFL. I think he's likely to become a solid player. I just don't think he's going to be a guy who's so talented that he can transcend any situation. He's more like a Nate Burleson or Eric Decker. On the right team, he can produce. On the wrong team, he's going to be a WR4/bye week type for FF purposes.

The Vert is not that big of a deal. He won't make his money being a Jumpball receiver. Anyone that isn't a Jumpball receiver usually their relevancy becomes situation dependent.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Whats really the knock on Patton? I thinks he's a B athlete with A hands. I'd put him somewhere over Stevie Johnson but a touch less than Reggie Wayne because of athleticism. He torched the tough parts of his schedule when everyone knew he was getting the ball.

10/13 Texas A&M L 59-57 21 233 11.1 62 4 1 -5 -5.0 0 0

http://youtu.be/eUVYuKAjDIo

I think the main knock is that he doesn't have any one single outstanding physical trait. Draft Scout has him at a 4.48 40, which is odd because NFL.com has him at a 4.53. That's not slow, but it's also not fast by NFL standards. Combine the average time with his average jump numbers in Indy (33" vertical and 9'10" broad jump) and it suggests a player who doesn't quite have the plus athletic traits to consistently gain an edge over any corner who lines up against him.

I don't hate his game though. He has actually been on my radar since before the 2012 season. Fluid athlete. Agile and efficient. Sturdy frame. Good demeanor and character for the NFL. I think he's likely to become a solid player. I just don't think he's going to be a guy who's so talented that he can transcend any situation. He's more like a Nate Burleson or Eric Decker. On the right team, he can produce. On the wrong team, he's going to be a WR4/bye week type for FF purposes.

Whats really the knock on Patton? I thinks he's a B athlete with A hands. I'd put him somewhere over Stevie Johnson but a touch less than Reggie Wayne because of athleticism. He torched the tough parts of his schedule when everyone knew he was getting the ball.

10/13 Texas A&M L 59-57 21 233 11.1 62 4 1 -5 -5.0 0 0

http://youtu.be/eUVYuKAjDIo

I think the main knock is that he doesn't have any one single outstanding physical trait. Draft Scout has him at a 4.48 40, which is odd because NFL.com has him at a 4.53. That's not slow, but it's also not fast by NFL standards. Combine the average time with his average jump numbers in Indy (33" vertical and 9'10" broad jump) and it suggests a player who doesn't quite have the plus athletic traits to consistently gain an edge over any corner who lines up against him.

I don't hate his game though. He has actually been on my radar since before the 2012 season. Fluid athlete. Agile and efficient. Sturdy frame. Good demeanor and character for the NFL. I think he's likely to become a solid player. I just don't think he's going to be a guy who's so talented that he can transcend any situation. He's more like a Nate Burleson or Eric Decker. On the right team, he can produce. On the wrong team, he's going to be a WR4/bye week type for FF purposes.

For the record, Patton has a really good 10-yard split. He also has very good shuttle and 3-cone times. He knows how to shake a corner and get open. That's his strength. Gets off the line really quick as well.

His cuts and hands are as good as this class gets.As far as his combine my only issue is the bench press. If he is that weak he could be injury prone but thats the easiest thing to fix.

 

[EBF]

I mean I haven't heard anyone knocking Tyler Eifert's "lack" of production. For a guy many claim to be elite and have no questions about, his numbers are near identical to teammate TJ Jones.

It doesn't make sense to compare TE stats to WR stats.

Here are the best yardage seasons in college for the best NFL TEs:

Jermaine Gresham - 950 yards

Aaron Hernandez - 850 yards

Heath Miller - 835 yards

Tony Gonzalez - 699 yards

Rob Gronkowski - 672 yards

Jason Witten - 493 yards

Greg Olsen - 489 yards

Owen Daniels - 391 yards

Kyle Rudolph - 364 yards

Jimmy Graham - 213 yards

TEs don't produce on par with receivers and shouldn't be compared to them.

Eifert had 803 yards in 2011 and 685 yards in 2012. Good production for a TE.

 

[Xue]

I mean I haven't heard anyone knocking Tyler Eifert's "lack" of production. For a guy many claim to be elite and have no questions about, his numbers are near identical to teammate TJ Jones.

It doesn't make sense to compare TE stats to WR stats.

Here are the best yardage seasons in college for the best NFL TEs:

Jermaine Gresham - 950 yards

Aaron Hernandez - 850 yards

Heath Miller - 835 yards

Tony Gonzalez - 699 yards

Rob Gronkowski - 672 yards

Jason Witten - 493 yards

Greg Olsen - 489 yards

Owen Daniels - 391 yards

Kyle Rudolph - 364 yards

Jimmy Graham - 213 yards

TEs don't produce on par with receivers and shouldn't be compared to them.

Eifert had 803 yards in 2011 and 685 yards in 2012. Good production for a TE.

It's not the yards I'm concerned with, it's his TD rate.

 

[Donnybrook]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

 

[EBF]

Pats haven't shown much ability to draft WR in the past decade. Givens and Branch were solid picks, but that was a long time ago. Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, and Taylor Price didn't work out. I don't think Dobson was a good pick either, but you never know...

 

[Kleck]

Ready to move Ball up to where he should have been in the beginning?

 

[EBF]

Ball is still just an average back in NFL terms, but Denver is a great landing spot and they used a pretty high pick on him. I do think he has a chance to be productive right away. You give any decent back a starting job and he has a chance at top 20 numbers. That's especially true on this Denver team.

 

[EBF]

Big changes are coming to my board after the last couple days.

A lot of the players who I thought might represent good value slipped or didn't even get drafted. Barkley sliding to the 4th is a big shocker. At WR, I thought Patton, Rogers, Boyce, and Harper all had a good chance to go in rounds 2-3. None of them did. That's a bit surprising. I think we'll see a couple of those guys come off the board in the 4th, but it doesn't bode well for their future that so many teams passed on them so many times. With Rogers, it's likely that the character stuff was a big factor. With Boyce, it's likely that his broken foot might have hurt his stock some. Patton's fall is more surprising, as he seemed like a unanimous bet for the top 75. I guess teams just didn't love him when push came to shove.

On the flipside, a lot of players that I don't rate highly went earlier than expected. I don't like the value of the Hopkins, Bell, Dobson, Goodwin, Bailey, or Williams picks. I think all of those guys went too high and will be overrated in rookie drafts. I'm more optimistic about Bernard, Hunter, Ball, Lacy, Woods, Manuel, Ertz, Austin, Allen, Reed, Geno, Wheaton, and Patterson even though I don't necessarily like all those guys a ton. Pretty good synergy of talent and situation in all of those cases.

Michael and Knile landed in tricky spots. They might not have much short term opportunity, but that could also create a good value play situation if teams pass on them for inferior talents like what happened with Bernard Pierce last year. Others like Franklin, Taylor, and Ellington continue to slide. I always felt Franklin was overrated. Taylor fell because of his dismal workouts and lack of speed. As for Ellington, it's possible that teams didn't want to use a top 100 pick on a guy whose ceiling might be as a COOP/situational back. Look for all of those guys to come off the board in the 4th-5th tomorrow. The higher the better.

Quick guess at ADP in a generic PPR league through three rounds:

RB Eddie Lacy, Packers

RB Giovani Bernard, BengalsRB Montee Ball, BroncosWR Tavon Austin, RamsWR Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings

WR DeAndre Hopkins, TexansRB LeVeon Bell, SteelersWR Justin Hunter, TitansTE Tyler Eifert, BengalsWR Keenan Allen, ChargersWR Robert Woods, BillsWR Aaron Dobson, PatriotsWR Markus Wheaton, SteelersQB EJ Manuel, BillsRB Christine Michael, SeahawksRB Knile Davis, ChiefsQB Geno Smith, JetsTE Zach Ertz, Eagles

WR Terrance Williams, Cowboys

TE Travis Kelce, ChiefsTE Jordan Reed, RedskinsWR Stedman Bailey, RamsWR Marquise Goodwin, BillsTE Gavin Escobar, CowboysTE Vance McDonald, 49ersQB Mike Glennon, Bucs

Those are not my rankings. Just a rough guess at how I expect teams to draft. Obviously a 2QB or TE heavy format changes the equation. And in non-PPR leagues, you're going to see someone like Bell taken ahead of Hopkins/Patterson/Hunter by some teams.

 

[jonboltz]

Big changes are coming to my board after the last couple days.

A lot of the players who I thought might represent good value slipped or didn't even get drafted. Barkley sliding to the 4th is a big shocker. At WR, I thought Patton, Rogers, Boyce, and Harper all had a good chance to go in rounds 2-3. None of them did. That's a bit surprising. I think we'll see a couple of those guys come off the board in the 4th, but it doesn't bode well for their future that so many teams passed on them so many times. With Rogers, it's likely that the character stuff was a big factor. With Boyce, it's likely that his broken foot might have hurt his stock some. Patton's fall is more surprising, as he seemed like a unanimous bet for the top 75. I guess teams just didn't love him when push came to shove.

On the flipside, a lot of players that I don't rate highly went earlier than expected. I don't like the value of the Hopkins, Bell, Dobson, Goodwin, Bailey, or Williams picks. I think all of those guys went too high and will be overrated in rookie drafts. I'm more optimistic about Bernard, Hunter, Ball, Lacy, Woods, Manuel, Ertz, Austin, Allen, Reed, Geno, Wheaton, and Patterson even though I don't necessarily like all those guys a ton. Pretty good synergy of talent and situation in all of those cases.

Michael and Knile landed in tricky spots. They might not have much short term opportunity, but that could also create a good value play situation if teams pass on them for inferior talents like what happened with Bernard Pierce last year. Others like Franklin, Taylor, and Ellington continue to slide. I always felt Franklin was overrated. Taylor fell because of his dismal workouts and lack of speed. As for Ellington, it's possible that teams didn't want to use a top 100 pick on a guy whose ceiling might be as a COOP/situational back. Look for all of those guys to come off the board in the 4th-5th tomorrow. The higher the better.

Quick guess at ADP in a generic PPR league through three rounds:

RB Eddie Lacy, Packers

RB Giovani Bernard, BengalsRB Montee Ball, BroncosWR Tavon Austin, RamsWR Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings

WR DeAndre Hopkins, TexansRB LeVeon Bell, SteelersWR Justin Hunter, TitansTE Tyler Eifert, BengalsWR Keenan Allen, ChargersWR Robert Woods, BillsWR Aaron Dobson, PatriotsWR Markus Wheaton, SteelersQB EJ Manuel, BillsRB Christine Michael, SeahawksRB Knile Davis, ChiefsQB Geno Smith, JetsTE Zach Ertz, EaglesTE Jordan Reed, RedskinsWR Stedman Bailey, RamsWR Marquise Goodwin, BillsTE Gavin Escobar, CowboysTE Vance McDonald, 49ersQB Mike Glennon, Bucs

Those are not my rankings. Just a rough guess at how I expect teams to draft. Obviously a 2QB or TE heavy format changes the equation. And in non-PPR leagues, you're going to see someone like Bell taken ahead of Hopkins/Patterson/Hunter by some teams.

Appears to be a large drop, IMHO, between picks 7 and 8.

 

[cobalt_27]

I mean I haven't heard anyone knocking Tyler Eifert's "lack" of production. For a guy many claim to be elite and have no questions about, his numbers are near identical to teammate TJ Jones.

It doesn't make sense to compare TE stats to WR stats. Here are the best yardage seasons in college for the best NFL TEs: Jermaine Gresham - 950 yardsAaron Hernandez - 850 yardsHeath Miller - 835 yardsTony Gonzalez - 699 yardsRob Gronkowski - 672 yardsJason Witten - 493 yardsGreg Olsen - 489 yardsOwen Daniels - 391 yardsKyle Rudolph - 364 yardsJimmy Graham - 213 yards TEs don't produce on par with receivers and shouldn't be compared to them. Eifert had 803 yards in 2011 and 685 yards in 2012. Good production for a TE.

It's not the yards I'm concerned with, it's his TD rate.

Yeah, because TD rates translate really well between college and the NFL.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Missing Kelce there EBF.

 

[EBF]

Missing Kelce there EBF.

Yea, you're right. He's in Reed/Bailey territory.

 

[Donnybrook]

Pats haven't shown much ability to draft WR in the past decade. Givens and Branch were solid picks, but that was a long time ago. Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, and Taylor Price didn't work out. I don't think Dobson was a good pick either, but you never know...

Dobson is nothing like the other Patriots draft picks. He is not a pure speed merchant and his hands are rock solid.

 

[Gawain]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy minority of people push for Austin at 1.01 in a 1PPR.

 

[EBF]

Pats haven't shown much ability to draft WR in the past decade. Givens and Branch were solid picks, but that was a long time ago. Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, and Taylor Price didn't work out. I don't think Dobson was a good pick either, but you never know...

Dobson is nothing like the other Patriots draft picks. He is not a pure speed merchant and his hands are rock solid.

I'm definitely going to take a second look at him, but I was never that impressed with his clips. Tall and rangy. Wouldn't say he's a burner on game day and he doesn't have the bulk of a true big/possession WR. There's also the fact that he was very pedestrian in college despite playing all four seasons. His season best is 689 receiving yards. Production isn't everything, but it isn't nothing either.

My knee jerk reaction is that he's just another Patriots WR draft miss. I'm willing to reconsider though...

 

[Vision6]

I got the 1.02 in a ppr league and am praying like hell Lacy Bernard or Ball goes first.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I got the 1.02 in a ppr league and am praying like hell Lacy Bernard or Ball goes first.

For tavon?

 

[BlitzPickup]

I got the 1.02 in a ppr league and am praying like hell Lacy Bernard or Ball goes first.

For tavon?

Obviously Bell.