[DYNASTY] 2013 Top 20 Rookies (1 Viewer)

[Kleck]

I got the 1.02 in a ppr league and am praying like hell Lacy Bernard or Ball goes first.

For tavon?

Obviously Bell.

So #5 looks like then.

 

[EBF]

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

Late flip-flop here, but after dogging this guy for months I think I'm going to pump the brake pedal on the skepticism a little bit. A lot of what I've said about him still applies. If you look at the measurables, his vertical/broad jump/40 combination suggests that he doesn't have much probability of ever becoming a high end NFL WR1. On the other hand, there's no reason why he can't be a very good #2 who has a long string of top 20-30 seasons.

In a class that lacks sure things, I actually think he's in the mix in the first tier with others like Patterson/Austin/Lacy.

The way I see it, he's kind of a polar opposite of Patterson. Patterson is all about upside/measurables/potential, but there's a massive bust risk. Hopkins doesn't have the ceiling to ever become a top flight star, but on the other hand he's an accomplished player with enough good qualities to most likely become a decent NFL starter. The fact that he's one of the few skill players in this draft that the NFL deemed worthy of a first round pick also can't be overlooked.

 

[Xue]

Pats haven't shown much ability to draft WR in the past decade. Givens and Branch were solid picks, but that was a long time ago. Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, and Taylor Price didn't work out. I don't think Dobson was a good pick either, but you never know...

Dobson is nothing like the other Patriots draft picks. He is not a pure speed merchant and his hands are rock solid.

I'm definitely going to take a second look at him, but I was never that impressed with his clips. Tall and rangy. Wouldn't say he's a burner on game day and he doesn't have the bulk of a true big/possession WR. There's also the fact that he was very pedestrian in college despite playing all four seasons. His season best is 689 receiving yards. Production isn't everything, but it isn't nothing either.

My knee jerk reaction is that he's just another Patriots WR draft miss. I'm willing to reconsider though...

Aaron Dobson beating Desmond Trufant (who was drafted in the 1st):

 

[Faust]

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

Late flip-flop here, but after dogging this guy for months I think I'm going to pump the brake pedal on the skepticism a little bit. A lot of what I've said about him still applies. If you look at the measurables, his vertical/broad jump/40 combination suggests that he doesn't have much probability of ever becoming a high end NFL WR1. On the other hand, there's no reason why he can't be a very good #2 who has a long string of top 20-30 seasons.

In a class that lacks sure things, I actually think he's in the mix in the first tier with others like Patterson/Austin/Lacy.

The way I see it, he's kind of a polar opposite of Patterson. Patterson is all about upside/measurables/potential, but there's a massive bust risk. Hopkins doesn't have the ceiling to ever become a top flight star, but on the other hand he's an accomplished player with enough good qualities to most likely become a decent NFL starter. The fact that he's one of the few skill players in this draft that the NFL deemed worthy of a first round pick also can't be overlooked.

 

[werdnoynek]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

I still disagree with this. They're nothing close to similar.

 

[Xue]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

I still disagree with this. They're nothing close to similar.

They're more similar than you think.

 

[werdnoynek]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

I still disagree with this. They're nothing close to similar.

They're more similar than you think.

They don't look similar on film to me. Size and speed, sure. But Allen is a much more complete receiver than Dobson is right now.

That may change. Dobson has some great hands but with the ball in their hands, Allen can run circles around Dobson.

 

[Xue]

Aaron Dobson is everthing that Keenan Allen was advertised to be.

I still disagree with this. They're nothing close to similar.

They're more similar than you think.

They don't look similar on film to me. Size and speed, sure. But Allen is a much more complete receiver than Dobson is right now. That may change. Dobson has some great hands but with the ball in their hands, Allen can run circles around Dobson.

YAC is a luxury trait. Allen isn't exactly Patterson in that department anyway.

 

[EBF]

Da'Rick Rogers sliding all the way to the 5th and perhaps beyond...



Major indictment of his talent/character by the NFL front offices.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Same with Bray. He's a project in the best of times, but looks like teams agree with the rumors that he may not have his head on right.

 

[Tau837]

Ball is still just an average back in NFL terms, but Denver is a great landing spot and they used a pretty high pick on him. I do think he has a chance to be productive right away. You give any decent back a starting job and he has a chance at top 20 numbers. That's especially true on this Denver team.

But it has never been Fox's tendency to give rookie RBs a lot of playing time. Are you assuming he will use Ball differently than he used Deangelo and Stewart? If so, why?

Also, how strong is Ball in pass protection and as a receiver? That is pretty important in Denver's offense.

 

[EBF]

Ball is still just an average back in NFL terms, but Denver is a great landing spot and they used a pretty high pick on him. I do think he has a chance to be productive right away. You give any decent back a starting job and he has a chance at top 20 numbers. That's especially true on this Denver team.

But it has never been Fox's tendency to give rookie RBs a lot of playing time. Are you assuming he will use Ball differently than he used Deangelo and Stewart? If so, why?

Also, how strong is Ball in pass protection and as a receiver? That is pretty important in Denver's offense.

I really don't know about his pass protection skills. That's something I assume most backs can pick up with a little bit of time.

Fox's history of not trusting rookies is relevant. On the other hand, Hillman looks like nothing more than a COOP back and Moreno has very limited ability to earn yards. He'll get what's there for the first 3-6 yards and that's it. No ability to create his own yards. If Ball can show more ability in that regard then he has a chance to be a major factor right away.

I struggle with where to rank Ball because I think he's more of a second tier talent than a guy you want to take in the top 3 of a rookie draft, but he has reasonable ability and went to a team starved for a franchise back. He's probably a mid first for me in this class. A gamble on instant production.

 

[Tau837]

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

Late flip-flop here, but after dogging this guy for months I think I'm going to pump the brake pedal on the skepticism a little bit. A lot of what I've said about him still applies. If you look at the measurables, his vertical/broad jump/40 combination suggests that he doesn't have much probability of ever becoming a high end NFL WR1. On the other hand, there's no reason why he can't be a very good #2 who has a long string of top 20-30 seasons.

You really think the Texans offense will support 2 top 30 WRs? They will need to throw a lot more often to do that.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Da'Rick Rogers sliding all the way to the 5th and perhaps beyond...



Major indictment of his talent/character by the NFL front offices.

Gee, who could've ever seen that coming?

 

[Tau837]

Ball is still just an average back in NFL terms, but Denver is a great landing spot and they used a pretty high pick on him. I do think he has a chance to be productive right away. You give any decent back a starting job and he has a chance at top 20 numbers. That's especially true on this Denver team.

But it has never been Fox's tendency to give rookie RBs a lot of playing time. Are you assuming he will use Ball differently than he used Deangelo and Stewart? If so, why?

Also, how strong is Ball in pass protection and as a receiver? That is pretty important in Denver's offense.

I really don't know about his pass protection skills. That's something I assume most backs can pick up with a little bit of time.

Fox's history of not trusting rookies is relevant. On the other hand, Hillman looks like nothing more than a COOP back and Moreno has very limited ability to earn yards. He'll get what's there for the first 3-6 yards and that's it. No ability to create his own yards. If Ball can show more ability in that regard then he has a chance to be a major factor right away.

I struggle with where to rank Ball because I think he's more of a second tier talent than a guy you want to take in the top 3 of a rookie draft, but he has reasonable ability and went to a team starved for a franchise back. He's probably a mid first for me in this class. A gamble on instant production.

Fox's history suggests that he would still be inclined to use Moreno a lot, maybe giving him the lead role in a committee. Pass protection is a strength for Moreno, and he is also a solid receiver (career 8.8 ypr, 6 career receiving TDs). Manning is the franchise, so pass protection is very important. I think Ball is going to be overrated early on.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Ball is still just an average back in NFL terms, but Denver is a great landing spot and they used a pretty high pick on him. I do think he has a chance to be productive right away. You give any decent back a starting job and he has a chance at top 20 numbers. That's especially true on this Denver team.

But it has never been Fox's tendency to give rookie RBs a lot of playing time. Are you assuming he will use Ball differently than he used Deangelo and Stewart? If so, why?

Also, how strong is Ball in pass protection and as a receiver? That is pretty important in Denver's offense.

Willis McGahee is going to be great value this year.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

Late flip-flop here, but after dogging this guy for months I think I'm going to pump the brake pedal on the skepticism a little bit. A lot of what I've said about him still applies. If you look at the measurables, his vertical/broad jump/40 combination suggests that he doesn't have much probability of ever becoming a high end NFL WR1. On the other hand, there's no reason why he can't be a very good #2 who has a long string of top 20-30 seasons.

You really think the Texans offense will support 2 top 30 WRs? They will need to throw a lot more often to do that.

Why not? The Texans were 11th in passing yards last season. The Buccaneers were 10th in passing yards and they had two WRs finish in the top 20 of fantasy WRs. Heck, the Jaguars had two WRs finish in the top 30 of fantasy WRs last season despite being 21st in passing yards. So not only would the Texans not have to throw a lot more to have two WRs finish in the top 30 of fantasy WRs, they could hypothetically throw considerably less and still get it done.

 

[EBF]

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

Late flip-flop here, but after dogging this guy for months I think I'm going to pump the brake pedal on the skepticism a little bit. A lot of what I've said about him still applies. If you look at the measurables, his vertical/broad jump/40 combination suggests that he doesn't have much probability of ever becoming a high end NFL WR1. On the other hand, there's no reason why he can't be a very good #2 who has a long string of top 20-30 seasons.

You really think the Texans offense will support 2 top 30 WRs? They will need to throw a lot more often to do that.

Right away? Maybe not. Hopkins is 20 years old though. Lot of time left.

 

[Tau837]

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

Late flip-flop here, but after dogging this guy for months I think I'm going to pump the brake pedal on the skepticism a little bit. A lot of what I've said about him still applies. If you look at the measurables, his vertical/broad jump/40 combination suggests that he doesn't have much probability of ever becoming a high end NFL WR1. On the other hand, there's no reason why he can't be a very good #2 who has a long string of top 20-30 seasons.

You really think the Texans offense will support 2 top 30 WRs? They will need to throw a lot more often to do that.

Why not? The Texans were 11th in passing yards last season. The Buccaneers were 10th in passing yards and they had two WRs finish in the top 20 of fantasy WRs. Heck, the Jaguars had two WRs finish in the top 30 of fantasy WRs last season despite being 21st in passing yards. So not only would the Texans not have to throw a lot more to have two WRs finish in the top 30 of fantasy WRs, they could hypothetically throw considerably less and still get it done.

Yes, they were 11th in receiving yards. They were also 18th in pass attempts and 18th in passing TDs.

Houston's TEs also had 124/1309/12 receiving on 188 targets last season. Only New England and New Orleans had more TE production. Are you assuming they shift a good bit of that production to their WR2?

 

[Time Kibitzer]

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

Late flip-flop here, but after dogging this guy for months I think I'm going to pump the brake pedal on the skepticism a little bit. A lot of what I've said about him still applies. If you look at the measurables, his vertical/broad jump/40 combination suggests that he doesn't have much probability of ever becoming a high end NFL WR1. On the other hand, there's no reason why he can't be a very good #2 who has a long string of top 20-30 seasons.

You really think the Texans offense will support 2 top 30 WRs? They will need to throw a lot more often to do that.

Why not? The Texans were 11th in passing yards last season. The Buccaneers were 10th in passing yards and they had two WRs finish in the top 20 of fantasy WRs. Heck, the Jaguars had two WRs finish in the top 30 of fantasy WRs last season despite being 21st in passing yards. So not only would the Texans not have to throw a lot more to have two WRs finish in the top 30 of fantasy WRs, they could hypothetically throw considerably less and still get it done.

Yes, they were 11th in receiving yards. They were also 18th in pass attempts and 18th in passing TDs.

Houston's TEs also had 124/1309/12 receiving on 188 targets last season. Only New England and New Orleans had more TE production. Are you assuming they shift a good bit of that production to their WR2?

Certainly, I'm guessing a large part of their TE production came from the fact that they were lacking a legit WR2. I also don't expect Andre Johnson to be having many more 1600 yard seasons, so I'm also assuming a decent chunk of his production will shift to their WR2 in the upcoming seasons if not next.

Also, if you want to look at pass attempts, the Buccaneers only had 12 more passing attempts than the Texans did last season, and their 2 WRs did very well.

 

[EBF]

An updated guess at ADP in a ppr rookie draft based on the first 5 rounds of the NFL draft:

WR Tavon Austin, RamsRB Eddie Lacy, PackersRB Giovani Bernard, BengalsWR Cordarrelle Patterson, VikingsWR DeAndre Hopkins, TexansRB Montee Ball, BroncosRB LeVeon Bell, SteelersWR Justin Hunter, TitansTE Tyler Eifert, BengalsWR Keenan Allen, ChargersWR Robert Woods, BillsRB Marcus Lattimore, 49ers============================WR Aaron Dobson, PatriotsWR Markus Wheaton, SteelersQB EJ Manuel, BillsRB Christine Michael, SeahawksRB Knile Davis, ChiefsQB Geno Smith, JetsTE Zach Ertz, EaglesRB Jonathan Franklin, PackersWR Terrance Williams, CowboysWR Josh Boyce, PatriotsTE Jordan Reed, RedskinsWR Chris Harper, Seahawks=============================WR Quinton Patton, 49ersQB Matt Barkley, EaglesRB Zac Stacy, RamsWR Stedman Bailey, RamsRB Stepfan Taylor, CardinalsWR Marquise Goodwin, BillsTE Gavin Escobar, CowboysQB Tyler Wilson, RaidersTE Vance McDonald, 49ersRB Joseph Randle CowboysWR Kenny Stills, SaintsWR Denard Robinson, Jaguar============================QB Ryan Nassib, GiantsRB Mike Gillislee, DolphinsRB Chris Thompson, SteelersQB Mike Glennon, BucsQB Landry Jones, SteelersTE Dion Sims, DolphinsWR Ace Sanders, JaguarsTE Levine Toilolo, Falcons

Again, these are not my rankings. Just a guess at how things will play out in a typical league.

I haven't included any 6th-7th rounders yet, and realistically most of those players should be 3rd-4th round rookie picks at best given the historically low odds of finding a gem outside the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft.

 

[Shutout]

Ball is still just an average back in NFL terms, but Denver is a great landing spot and they used a pretty high pick on him. I do think he has a chance to be productive right away. You give any decent back a starting job and he has a chance at top 20 numbers. That's especially true on this Denver team.

But it has never been Fox's tendency to give rookie RBs a lot of playing time. Are you assuming he will use Ball differently than he used Deangelo and Stewart? If so, why?

Also, how strong is Ball in pass protection and as a receiver? That is pretty important in Denver's offense.

I really don't know about his pass protection skills. That's something I assume most backs can pick up with a little bit of time.

Fox's history of not trusting rookies is relevant. On the other hand, Hillman looks like nothing more than a COOP back and Moreno has very limited ability to earn yards. He'll get what's there for the first 3-6 yards and that's it. No ability to create his own yards. If Ball can show more ability in that regard then he has a chance to be a major factor right away.

I struggle with where to rank Ball because I think he's more of a second tier talent than a guy you want to take in the top 3 of a rookie draft, but he has reasonable ability and went to a team starved for a franchise back. He's probably a mid first for me in this class. A gamble on instant production.

Fox's history suggests that he would still be inclined to use Moreno a lot, maybe giving him the lead role in a committee. Pass protection is a strength for Moreno, and he is also a solid receiver (career 8.8 ypr, 6 career receiving TDs). Manning is the franchise, so pass protection is very important. I think Ball is going to be overrated early on.

Agree completely. I am a bit surprised that, especially how Moreno was used down the stretch last year, that people continue to talk about him AFTER McGahee and Hillman. The two things Moreno does great is pass protect and catch balls out of the backfield and that has always been perfect with Manning and made his Rbs relevant.

If anything, Willis' time is all but over. Moreno will be the value back in Denver this year. The only thing that would derail that would be if DWIL becomes available and goes to Denver. SHould that happen, Ball, Willis, Moreno, and Hillman are all afterthoughts.

 

[EBF]

I'm not gonna say Da'Rick Rogers is the second coming of Anquan Boldin or anything crazy like that, but damn...they must have gotten some awful reports from his coaches and peers if he's falling this far. A guy with his production and workout numbers should not be available in the 6th round. It's getting to a point where a lot of the players teams are taking instead will be lucky to even make a roster.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

An updated guess at ADP in a ppr rookie draft based on the first 5 rounds of the NFL draft:

WR Tavon Austin, RamsRB Eddie Lacy, PackersRB Giovani Bernard, BengalsWR Cordarrelle Patterson, VikingsWR DeAndre Hopkins, TexansRB Montee Ball, BroncosRB LeVeon Bell, SteelersWR Justin Hunter, TitansTE Tyler Eifert, BengalsWR Keenan Allen, ChargersWR Robert Woods, BillsRB Marcus Lattimore, 49ers============================WR Aaron Dobson, PatriotsWR Markus Wheaton, SteelersQB EJ Manuel, BillsRB Christine Michael, SeahawksRB Knile Davis, ChiefsQB Geno Smith, JetsTE Zach Ertz, EaglesRB Jonathan Franklin, PackersWR Terrance Williams, CowboysWR Josh Boyce, PatriotsTE Jordan Reed, RedskinsWR Chris Harper, Seahawks=============================WR Quinton Patton, 49ersQB Matt Barkley, EaglesRB Zac Stacy, RamsWR Stedman Bailey, RamsRB Stepfan Taylor, CardinalsWR Marquise Goodwin, BillsTE Gavin Escobar, CowboysQB Tyler Wilson, RaidersTE Vance McDonald, 49ersRB Joseph Randle CowboysWR Kenny Stills, SaintsWR Denard Robinson, Jaguar============================QB Ryan Nassib, GiantsRB Mike Gillislee, DolphinsRB Chris Thompson, SteelersQB Mike Glennon, BucsQB Landry Jones, SteelersTE Dion Sims, DolphinsWR Ace Sanders, JaguarsTE Levine Toilolo, Falcons

Again, these are not my rankings. Just a guess at how things will play out in a typical league.

I haven't included any 6th-7th rounders yet, and realistically most of those players should be 3rd-4th round rookie picks at best given the historically low odds of finding a gem outside the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft.

Nice post, that ADP looks about right to me. Only thing that sticks out on initial look is that I think Zac Stacy belongs in that 2nd tier. Stacy had a lot of fans before the draft, and although he went late he ended up in a pretty ideal situation. I think he'll definitely be going in the early-mid 2nd round in rookie drafts, possibly even in the late first in some.

 

[EBF]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

 

[jonboltz]

I'd frankly take a shot at Ellington and Stacy at the end of the second.

 

[EBF]

Spencer Ware to the Seahawks. One of the worst possible landing spots. Can't really see a silver lining with Lynch, Turbin, and Michael already in the fold.

They're building quite a collection of big backs.

 

[werdnoynek]

Spencer Ware to the Seahawks. One of the worst possible landing spots. Can't really see a silver lining with Lynch, Turbin, and Michael already in the fold. They're building quite a collection of big backs.

Strange. Not sure what to make of it...

 

[EBF]

Marcus Davis also still out there. Thought he might go higher than this. Looks like the projections of 6th-7th round were accurate though.

I feel like he offers better value than the likes of Bonner and Justin Brown. Also like him more than his teammate Corey Fuller, who went at the top of the round.

 

[cstu]

Spencer Ware to the Seahawks. One of the worst possible landing spots. Can't really see a silver lining with Lynch, Turbin, and Michael already in the fold. They're building quite a collection of big backs.

Strange. Not sure what to make of it...

They must not be sold on Lynch's longevity. A cut in 2015 with his $9M cap hit?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

And the fact that very few 6th round RBs make an impact was a good reason to pass on Alfred Morris.

 

[loose circuits]

seems like Bailey is awfully low in your list. Rams spots are up for grabs and they obviously like him

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Spencer Ware to the Seahawks. One of the worst possible landing spots. Can't really see a silver lining with Lynch, Turbin, and Michael already in the fold. They're building quite a collection of big backs.

Strange. Not sure what to make of it...

They liked him and thought he was worth the pick. Probably in their top 100-125 players. Waldman loved him so it's not outlandish. SEA is willing to take BPA, obviously. Not really that strange.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

An updated guess at ADP in a ppr rookie draft based on the first 5 rounds of the NFL draft:

WR Tavon Austin, RamsRB Eddie Lacy, PackersRB Giovani Bernard, BengalsWR Cordarrelle Patterson, VikingsWR DeAndre Hopkins, TexansRB Montee Ball, BroncosRB LeVeon Bell, SteelersWR Justin Hunter, TitansTE Tyler Eifert, BengalsWR Keenan Allen, ChargersWR Robert Woods, BillsRB Marcus Lattimore, 49ers============================WR Aaron Dobson, PatriotsWR Markus Wheaton, SteelersQB EJ Manuel, BillsRB Christine Michael, SeahawksRB Knile Davis, ChiefsQB Geno Smith, JetsTE Zach Ertz, EaglesRB Jonathan Franklin, PackersWR Terrance Williams, CowboysWR Josh Boyce, PatriotsTE Jordan Reed, RedskinsWR Chris Harper, Seahawks=============================WR Quinton Patton, 49ersQB Matt Barkley, EaglesRB Zac Stacy, RamsWR Stedman Bailey, RamsRB Stepfan Taylor, CardinalsWR Marquise Goodwin, BillsTE Gavin Escobar, CowboysQB Tyler Wilson, RaidersTE Vance McDonald, 49ersRB Joseph Randle CowboysWR Kenny Stills, SaintsWR Denard Robinson, Jaguar============================QB Ryan Nassib, GiantsRB Mike Gillislee, DolphinsRB Chris Thompson, SteelersQB Mike Glennon, BucsQB Landry Jones, SteelersTE Dion Sims, DolphinsWR Ace Sanders, JaguarsTE Levine Toilolo, Falcons

Again, these are not my rankings. Just a guess at how things will play out in a typical league.

I haven't included any 6th-7th rounders yet, and realistically most of those players should be 3rd-4th round rookie picks at best given the historically low odds of finding a gem outside the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft.

excellent work here - very realistic

 

[EBF]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

And the fact that very few 6th round RBs make an impact was a good reason to pass on Alfred Morris.

Yes, and the 90% of 6th round RBs who flopped.

Betting on an exception is a losing proposition more often than not.

 

[EBF]

seems like Bailey is awfully low in your list. Rams spots are up for grabs and they obviously like him

That's a little bit of my own bias shining through. I really didn't like the Bailey pick. He may have some real life NFL value, bit with a pretty ho-hum size/speed combo and two superior playmakers already in the fold at WR (Givens and Austin), I just don't see a big glimmer of hope there.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

Yeah sorry, meant to say 2nd round instead of 2nd tier.

I'm not necessarily saying Stacy will be worthy of being a 2nd round pick, but I just expect that's where most people will be drafting him. Looking back to 2011, Roy Helu, Delone Carter, and Kendall Hunter all had ADP's between the late 1st and mid 2nd despite being 4th round picks since they all ended up in good situations.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

And the fact that very few 6th round RBs make an impact was a good reason to pass on Alfred Morris.

Yes, and the 90% of 6th round RBs who flopped.

Betting on an exception is a losing proposition more often than not.

but we can do better than just going on the round a player was taken. yes if we lump ALL 6th rd RBs together, 10% is the hit rate. But add in Shanahan factor? Helu injury factor? that number goes up. We watch tape and get to know the team depth charts and philosophy so we can do better than just judging a guy by his draft slot.

 

[EBF]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

And the fact that very few 6th round RBs make an impact was a good reason to pass on Alfred Morris.

Yes, and the 90% of 6th round RBs who flopped.

Betting on an exception is a losing proposition more often than not.

but we can do better than just going on the round a player was taken. yes if we lump ALL 6th rd RBs together, 10% is the hit rate. But add in Shanahan factor? Helu injury factor? that number goes up. We watch tape and get to know the team depth charts and philosophy so we can do better than just judging a guy by his draft slot.

I agree with all of that, but there's a limit on how far I'm willing to jump the tracks.

For example, a few years back I made the mistake of taking Jonathan Dwyer in the early 2nd round of a rookie draft because I thought he wasn't really a 6th round talent. It turns out that maybe he was just a mediocre player all along.

Teams spend a lot of time and money to get these picks right and while they definitely miss a lot, they generally do a pretty good job of slotting a guy approximately where his talent warrants. If there's a late round player that I like, what I'll do is move him to the top of the late round cluster. That's usually enough to ensure that I still get him on a lot of my teams without going so far all-in that I'm taking him ahead of early or middle round guys who have much better objective odds of success.

I think that's the best approach to balancing personal preference with concrete data points.

 

[squistion]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

And the fact that very few 6th round RBs make an impact was a good reason to pass on Alfred Morris.

Yes, and the 90% of 6th round RBs who flopped.

Betting on an exception is a losing proposition more often than not.

But we can do better than just going on the round a player was taken. yes if we lump ALL 6th rd RBs together, 10% is the hit rate. But add in Shanahan factor? Helu injury factor? that number goes up. We watch tape and get to know the team depth charts and philosophy so we can do better than just judging a guy by his draft slot.

Agreed. If you don't take into account context, then you are just playing probabilities.

 

[Boone22]

.

 

[cstu]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

And the fact that very few 6th round RBs make an impact was a good reason to pass on Alfred Morris.

Yes, and the 90% of 6th round RBs who flopped.

Betting on an exception is a losing proposition more often than not.

but we can do better than just going on the round a player was taken. yes if we lump ALL 6th rd RBs together, 10% is the hit rate. But add in Shanahan factor? Helu injury factor? that number goes up. We watch tape and get to know the team depth charts and philosophy so we can do better than just judging a guy by his draft slot.

No matter how good you are Bloom, trying to pick winners of RB's picked in the 4th+ rounds is a losing battle. These guys usually get stuck in lousy situations and you generally have to wait years to get any return. When they do produce it's generally only for a year or two. I'm not saying don't draft them, but I'd rather roll my dice on WR's or TE's taken late.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

And the fact that very few 6th round RBs make an impact was a good reason to pass on Alfred Morris.

Yes, and the 90% of 6th round RBs who flopped.

Betting on an exception is a losing proposition more often than not.

but we can do better than just going on the round a player was taken. yes if we lump ALL 6th rd RBs together, 10% is the hit rate. But add in Shanahan factor? Helu injury factor? that number goes up. We watch tape and get to know the team depth charts and philosophy so we can do better than just judging a guy by his draft slot.

No matter how good you are Bloom, trying to pick winners of RB's picked in the 4th+ rounds is a losing battle. These guys usually get stuck in lousy situations and you generally have to wait years to get any return. When they do produce it's generally only for a year or two. I'm not saying don't draft them, but I'd rather roll my dice on WR's or TE's taken late.

I would take Stacy over any 3rd day WR or TE

 

[cstu]

Those aren't tiers. I just added a divider every 12 picks because most of my leagues have 12 teams and thus 12 picks per round.

You might be right about Stacy. People will always reach for a RB with instant prospects and he fits the bill. I'd point to the fact that very few 5th+ round RBs ever make a lasting impact as a good reason to pass on him, but their depth chart is so thin that he could come in and make some noise ala Ballard.

And the fact that very few 6th round RBs make an impact was a good reason to pass on Alfred Morris.

Yes, and the 90% of 6th round RBs who flopped.

Betting on an exception is a losing proposition more often than not.

but we can do better than just going on the round a player was taken. yes if we lump ALL 6th rd RBs together, 10% is the hit rate. But add in Shanahan factor? Helu injury factor? that number goes up. We watch tape and get to know the team depth charts and philosophy so we can do better than just judging a guy by his draft slot.

No matter how good you are Bloom, trying to pick winners of RB's picked in the 4th+ rounds is a losing battle. These guys usually get stuck in lousy situations and you generally have to wait years to get any return. When they do produce it's generally only for a year or two. I'm not saying don't draft them, but I'd rather roll my dice on WR's or TE's taken late.

I would take Stacy over any 3rd day WR or TE

And you can mark me down as saying at least two of Boyce, Harper and Patton have better careers than Stacy.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Guess I'm the only one but I don't like Lacy landing in green bay. He'll get the goal line work but they throw way too much for him and franklin will likely be on the field for passing downs, which is every down.

I like Darick Rogers landing with EJ in buffalo. Sleeper pick

Bell has to be number 1 rookie pick unless you prefer receiver there. Maybe Austin or Deandre Hopkins possibly number 1 pick as well.

 

[EBF]

Biggest losers in my rankings will be Da'Rick Rogers and Marcus Davis. I can't remember there ever being such a huge contrast between my rankings and the NFL draft than seeing Da'Rick go from a potential first tier rookie pick all the way to undrafted bargain bin free agent. He went from being a guy that I would have considered in the first round of a rookie draft to a guy that I might not even take with a third. Ouch.

It's less shocking to see Davis go undrafted since many people had him tabbed as a late pick all along, but I'm surprised that players like Bonner and Fuller were chosen while he wasn't. In my view he has a lot more potential than many of the day three skill guys who were taken, but what do I know...

I'm putting together my post draft rankings now. Already have some ideas about where to put some of these guys. Things didn't shake out quite the way I thought they might and some of my sleeper picks were dissed hard by the NFL, but I still think there are going to be some good value plays at every level of the rookie draft.

 

[gatorbait]

Guess I'm the only one but I don't like Lacy landing in green bay. He'll get the goal line work but they throw way too much for him and franklin will likely be on the field for passing downs, which is every down.I like Darick Rogers landing with EJ in buffalo. Sleeper pickBell has to be number 1 rookie pick unless you prefer receiver there. Maybe Austin or Deandre Hopkins possibly number 1 pick as well.

Bell definitely landed in a good spot but for some reason, I'm just not high on him. I have top 3 pick in two leagues and I'm really considering taking a chance on Patterson. I think Hopkins is a safer pick and I think Austin will be good, but there's something about Patterson that will likely make me take the shot with him.

I should note that my wr core is the weakness in both teams I've taken over so that's why I'm leaning wr now that I'm not overly impressed where any rbs I liked landed. Lacy/Franklin both landing in GB and Michael going to Seahawks was like a swift kick in the nuts.....

 

[werdnoynek]

An updated guess at ADP in a ppr rookie draft based on the first 5 rounds of the NFL draft:

WR Tavon Austin, RamsRB Eddie Lacy, PackersRB Giovani Bernard, BengalsWR Cordarrelle Patterson, VikingsWR DeAndre Hopkins, TexansRB Montee Ball, BroncosRB LeVeon Bell, SteelersWR Justin Hunter, TitansTE Tyler Eifert, BengalsWR Keenan Allen, ChargersWR Robert Woods, BillsRB Marcus Lattimore, 49ers============================WR Aaron Dobson, PatriotsWR Markus Wheaton, SteelersQB EJ Manuel, BillsRB Christine Michael, SeahawksRB Knile Davis, ChiefsQB Geno Smith, JetsTE Zach Ertz, EaglesRB Jonathan Franklin, PackersWR Terrance Williams, CowboysWR Josh Boyce, PatriotsTE Jordan Reed, RedskinsWR Chris Harper, Seahawks=============================WR Quinton Patton, 49ersQB Matt Barkley, EaglesRB Zac Stacy, RamsWR Stedman Bailey, RamsRB Stepfan Taylor, CardinalsWR Marquise Goodwin, BillsTE Gavin Escobar, CowboysQB Tyler Wilson, RaidersTE Vance McDonald, 49ersRB Joseph Randle CowboysWR Kenny Stills, SaintsWR Denard Robinson, Jaguar============================QB Ryan Nassib, GiantsRB Mike Gillislee, DolphinsRB Chris Thompson, SteelersQB Mike Glennon, BucsQB Landry Jones, SteelersTE Dion Sims, DolphinsWR Ace Sanders, JaguarsTE Levine Toilolo, Falcons

Again, these are not my rankings. Just a guess at how things will play out in a typical league.

I haven't included any 6th-7th rounders yet, and realistically most of those players should be 3rd-4th round rookie picks at best given the historically low odds of finding a gem outside the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft.

You forgot Travis Kelce. Going to KC was a great spot for him to be successful. I'd probably put him in the 2nd.

 

[Xue]

Biggest losers in my rankings will be Da'Rick Rogers and Marcus Davis. I can't remember there ever being such a huge contrast between my rankings and the NFL draft than seeing Da'Rick go from a potential first tier rookie pick all the way to undrafted bargain bin free agent. He went from being a guy that I would have considered in the first round of a rookie draft to a guy that I might not even take with a third. Ouch.

It's less shocking to see Davis go undrafted since many people had him tabbed as a late pick all along, but I'm surprised that players like Bonner and Fuller were chosen while he wasn't. In my view he has a lot more potential than many of the day three skill guys who were taken, but what do I know...

I'm putting together my post draft rankings now. Already have some ideas about where to put some of these guys. Things didn't shake out quite the way I thought they might and some of my sleeper picks were dissed hard by the NFL, but I still think there are going to be some good value plays at every level of the rookie draft.

Fuller is a much better WR than Davis is. And he virtually only played one year of college football. Very good hands and near the top in YAC. He's going to be one of the better deep threats in the NFL.

 

[Mike63]

Bloom and Bramel post-draft rankings are out.

EBF, we are waiting for yours