Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Dude, your a tool. Go play in the ffa. You don't belong here'Chachi said:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
[DYNASTY] 2013 Top 20 Rookies (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
I don't dislike Patton. He was on my watch list in August and I very nearly took him in a couple dev drafts last year. He's a good player. The issue is upside. He doesn't have any outstanding physical tools that will scare NFL DBs. That's not something you can say about most of the elite NFL receivers. Hence why I think Patton is far more likely to end up as a good sidekick than a team's leading receiver. He is good in every way. Solid frame. Decent speed. Productive. Tough. Good character. Fluid runner. Quick.
What he lacks is a special quality. He won't win foot races against NFL corners. While strong, he's not going to overpower people like Boldin and Marshall. When you add it all up I think you get a solid player, but not one with a tremendously high ceiling.
Hunter is more of a glider than a start-stop athlete. Even Calvin is kind of like that. It's a stride length issue. When you have really long legs, you can't make the tight turns and cuts that a shorter player can make. That's why most running backs/corner backs/punt returners are on the short side, and why you see a short guy like Lionel Messi running circles around tall defenders in soccer.
I wouldn't say Hunter is a can't-miss prospect either. He is a different type of athlete from the prototypical tall #1 NFL receiver like Demaryius Thomas. Not as thick. Not as agile. I think he has a better chance of becoming a top shelf #1 than someone like Patton though because he does have standout athletic traits. He has above average speed and elite leaping ability. His long strides might be a liability in terms of evading tacklers after the catch and running certain types of routes like comebacks and digs, but those long legs also eat up turf in a hurry. And with his height, range, and leaping ability, he can come down with jump balls even when he's covered.
I'm still turning over this WR class in my head, but I mentioned previously that I'm starting to settle on Patterson/Allen/Rogers/Hunter as the top 4 in some order. At this point I'm leaning towards Rogers as the #1 with Allen/Hunter next and then Patterson behind them.
What he lacks is a special quality. He won't win foot races against NFL corners. While strong, he's not going to overpower people like Boldin and Marshall. When you add it all up I think you get a solid player, but not one with a tremendously high ceiling.
Hunter is more of a glider than a start-stop athlete. Even Calvin is kind of like that. It's a stride length issue. When you have really long legs, you can't make the tight turns and cuts that a shorter player can make. That's why most running backs/corner backs/punt returners are on the short side, and why you see a short guy like Lionel Messi running circles around tall defenders in soccer.
I wouldn't say Hunter is a can't-miss prospect either. He is a different type of athlete from the prototypical tall #1 NFL receiver like Demaryius Thomas. Not as thick. Not as agile. I think he has a better chance of becoming a top shelf #1 than someone like Patton though because he does have standout athletic traits. He has above average speed and elite leaping ability. His long strides might be a liability in terms of evading tacklers after the catch and running certain types of routes like comebacks and digs, but those long legs also eat up turf in a hurry. And with his height, range, and leaping ability, he can come down with jump balls even when he's covered.
I'm still turning over this WR class in my head, but I mentioned previously that I'm starting to settle on Patterson/Allen/Rogers/Hunter as the top 4 in some order. At this point I'm leaning towards Rogers as the #1 with Allen/Hunter next and then Patterson behind them.
cstu
Footballguy
I like Patton but have to be realistic that he's likely a WR3 for fantasy. He's a guy I'll definitely consider after the higher upside guys are gone.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Patton's never going to be in that top Andre, Fitz, Demaryius, AJ, etc type tier. But I think people are sleeping on him.
He's about as safe as it gets to be a solid long-term contributor and with all the questions around Patterson and Rodgers, Patton is my #1 WR in the class today. I can see the swing for the fences argument with the other two guys, but I'd give the nod to Patton in terms of risk/reward. I expect him to have multiple WR15-20 seasons unless he ends up in situational hell.
He's about as safe as it gets to be a solid long-term contributor and with all the questions around Patterson and Rodgers, Patton is my #1 WR in the class today. I can see the swing for the fences argument with the other two guys, but I'd give the nod to Patton in terms of risk/reward. I expect him to have multiple WR15-20 seasons unless he ends up in situational hell.
Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins are the safest WRs in my rankings. High Risk-Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Da'Rick Rogers. Middle(risky/and safe)- Tavon Austin
Donnybrook
Footballguy
When does Keenan Allen slow recovery time become an real injury issue? Cal: Keenan Allen SB Nation's No 2 wideout in the 2013 Draft class, did not run through any testing. He was expected to go through position drills, but had to pull out after his knee began bothering him during warmups. My link'tdmills said:
EBF
Footballguy
I have the 1.02 pick in a league where I could use a great young WR. At one point I thought Allen was a strong candidate, but the offseason hasn't been kind to him. He looks pretty good when you watch the clips, but the injury and the lack of a workout scares me a little bit. He was always an unconventional prospect and the lack of workout data makes it harder to find NFL comparisons. Is he damaged goods or are they just trying to hide something? It could be as simple as he needs another 3-4 months to get 100%. Nevertheless, it seems like his stock has dipped a little bit. At this point you have to wonder if he'll even be a first round pick. Draft Scout has moved his projected round from "1" to "1-2."
With the advances in medicine/technology, I really don't understand the huge downgrade for guys with minor injuries. If I recall correctly it was an MCL injury. Broken leg/ACL etc may make people downgrade more, but it shouldn't be as much as before. I don't downgrade a player due to injury until it's multiple injuries: Lattimore/Broyles, Ryan Williams, Collie, Best, etcI also don't get the offseason talk. Isn't the underwear olympics overrated? Then should we instead concentrate on what the player did on the field? Just like Stephen Hill, Knile Davis, etc...don't get hyped into it IMO.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
It is a PCL injury and there are various recovery times for that injury. The fact that he is re-injuring it or having a long recovery makes me suspect that it more sever than most. I am guessing that most experts think that he will eventually recover like Michael Crabtree did from his foot stress fracture. I am no doctor but knee injuries scare me more than foot injuries especially for a receiver.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
After the first tier, I think the next few waves of WRs break pretty cleanly into two different groups.'wdcrob said:
GROUP A - Solid NFL #2 receivers who likely don't have #1 WR upside.
DeAndre Hopkins
Robert Woods
Quinton Patton
Markus Wheaton
I've talked a lot about these guys by now. I don't think Hopkins has the dynamic qualities of a pro #1. Same with Woods and Patton. The interesting thing about Woods is that he was running 46 seconds in the 400m as a high schooler, which is borderline world class speed. However, the 400m is a very different beast from the 100m. It demands a different body type. The 400m is about glider speed. The 100m is about power sprinters. Obviously football favors the latter. So while Woods actually has elite speed in a certain context, it's not really the kind of speed that football rewards. Patton is a Steve Johnson clone, for better or worse. On a bad team he can be a desperation #1 receiver. I don't think he's a guy you want to ask to beat the other team's top corner every week. Wheaton is the most explosive athlete of this group, but he has frame limitations being just 5'11" 189 (and just 183 at the Senior Bowl). Nice complementary player. Great pick for someone like Pittsburgh or Washington. Tough to see him as a true #1 guy though.
GROUP B - Volatile prospects with higher ceilings than group A, but significantly more risk of busting outright.
Josh Boyce
Marcus Davis
Marquess Wilson
Three very different players here. Boyce tore up the combine with 4.38 speed at a massive weight/height ratio and a 10'11" broad jump, which is great for a 5'11" player. He also looked explosive in the drills. Game tape is not amazing though and he's generally regarded as just a 3rd-5th round prospect. He was good in college, but not incredible. The obvious question is if he's such a good athlete, why isn't he more highly-regarded? Why didn't he dominate in college? Davis is a guy who is really close to being a special talent in some ways, but seems like he might be just a key piece or two short. He has the monster frame of a Demaryius Thomas or Vincent Jackson. Vertical speed is better than his 40 time would indicate. Hands and pure receiving skills are also better than advertised. Only jumped 10'0" in the broad jump though, has desire/focus question marks, was a mild disappointment as a college player overall, and doesn't necessarily have great route running/movement skills. He's not such a freakish athlete that he can return kicks at a high level like Thomas or Jackson. Still think someone takes a chance on him earlier than expected. Probably 3rd-4th round, with 4th being most likely. As for Wilson, he's a different type of player. Poor man's AJ Green with a rail thin frame and just average speed/explosiveness, but great inherent receiving talent and production. Skills you can't teach.
A couple wild cards for me are Tavon Austin and Chris Harper. Austin doesn't fit an established mold as an outside WR, which makes him a risky prospect despite his high ratings across the board and his undeniable game breaker qualities. I actually like him as an NFL weapon. I just have no idea whatsoever how it will translate to FF. I think Harper is a bit of a tweener between the Group A/Group B lists above. He catches the ball really cleanly, plays with great strength, and runs excellent routes for a big receiver. Very fluid stride and start-stop ability for a jumbo WR, which is apparent in his clips and is also reflected in his solid three cone time. If you look at his combine numbers, the 4.55 40 and 9'8" might scare you. However, I think you have to view those numbers through the context of his height/weight. At 6'0.6" 229, he has an off-the-charts BMI that's more on par with what you'd expect from a RB than a WR. To put that monster BMI into context...
Harper - 30.5
V Jackson - 28.9
D Bryant - 28.8
Fitzgerald - 28.3
Calvin - 28.3
So yeah, he's not very explosive in drills and that's a concern, but the guy is an absolute colossus. If he lost 15 pounds he would still have a higher BMI than Da'Rick Rogers and Cordarrelle Patterson. If you think about it that way, his 4.55 40 and 9'8" broad jump become a little more forgivable. He's carrying an extra 20 pounds on his back, so you can't expect him to jump as well as the other guys. He's a player that's rising up my board a little bit as I put all of the pieces together. I wouldn't say he's some kind of a lock superstar, but you could argue that he's one of the most underrated receivers in the draft. I think he'll probably be an early-mid 3rd round pick and a very good value there considering that names like Hopkins, Patton, and Woods are likely to go a round higher.
Last edited by a moderator:
Williams is very low in my rankings as well. What do you see?I see an average athlete, average ability, low ability after the catch, limited college route treeEBF I still think your neglect of Terrance Williams boarders on criminalI like the guy!
EBF
Footballguy
I'll definitely go back and do another thorough look before the dust settles. Obviously I haven't been too impressed with what I've seen so far. In every draft there's usually 1-2 guys that I'm way too critical of. Maybe he's that guy this year.EBF I still think your neglect of Terrance Williams boarders on criminal
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I read that as 6-12 months being for surgical repair. He didn't have surgery did he?
Last edited by a moderator:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Couldn't resist jumping out of order and doing a write up on Allen after I heard the news that he didn't run at his pro day.
I'm more convinced than ever that he's a mistake waiting to happen.
I'm more convinced than ever that he's a mistake waiting to happen.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Thanks for posting your blog, it is a fantastic read. Not sure why I never saw it before....just finished churning through a bunch of older postings. One question for you: how do you feel about your 2011 WR projections in retrospect?
Excellent blog. You are one of my favorite posters in the SP, hands down.
EBF
Footballguy
I think if he stays healthy he'll end up being a little better than you're giving him credit for. I agree that there are risk factors. His game is unconventional. He doesn't have long speed. He's not strong. He's a possession/speed tweener. What puzzles me about your take on him is the negative performance metric. I don't know what's driving that. Maybe the low yards per catch. I know you mentioned previously that according to your system Allen is bad after the catch. I think he's more dangerous in that regard than your approach is showing. I know a lot of the pundits cite it as a strong point. Qualitatively, I don't think he's all that similar to the guys you've lumped him together with. I don't remember Terrell very well at this point, but I'm pretty familiar with Roy, Edwards, Pettis, Randle, Robiskie, and LaFell. I don't think Keenan fits in that group very well. He is a different beast. More elusive with the ball in his hands. A move-the-chains type of player who can occasionally sneak by people. Out of all the current successful NFL receivers, the closest comp I can think of is Colston. They're not exactly clones though.
What stands out to me about Allen is that he's an instinctive and fluid player. This is something that I suspect your numbers still have a hard time quantifying. I felt that way about Randle last year, who I know you weren't a fan of. He wasn't a workout warrior either, but if you watched him play, he did some nice things that you can't teach. Moved well in and out of his routes. Transitioned to running after the catch seamlessly. I thought he could be a solid starting WR, and I feel Allen has a chance to be the same. He might be overdrafted by a round in the NFL and by 5-6 slots in rookie drafts, but he can still be useful.
ZWK
Footballguy
Keenan Allen's college performance also came out as relatively average in my analysis, if you compare him to other WRs who were taken in the NFL draft. He didn't catch many touchdowns or get many long gains (just 12 TDs and 4 plays of 40+ yards over the past two seasons = 22 games); most WRs who are successful in the NFL are able to do both, through some combination of deep passes, running after the catch on short passes, and making tough catches in the end zone. His other stats were pretty good, but not amazing enough to make up for it. His yards per game and yards per team pass attempt were good but not spectacular, and his yards per target were just average to pretty good.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
i think a lot of that had to do with the guy throwing the ball at him... i said at him for a reason. his step brother is a very poor quarterback. maynard probably isn't a CFL caliber backup. allen was the best player on a #### team and while his stats weren't spectacular, they were solid for what he was working with. i think the stats aren't showing the full picture in this case.
ZWK
Footballguy
There is something to that, but it's not like Allen is the first college WR to be stuck with a lousy QB. Do you remember Danny O'Brien, Cameron Sexton, Reggie Ball, Paul McCall, Joshua Nesbitt, and Adam Weber? Torrey Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker do, and they all put up significantly better stats with those QBs than Allen did with Maynard.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
After the combine, Allen schedule his individual pro day for sometime in April and he never intended to run his 40 at his schools pro day. So technically he did not miss his pro day and it may still happen at its scheduled time. He obviously thought about doing some on the field work at Cal's pro day but the knee injury prevented that from happening. One of the things that I thought Allen could have done at the Combine or Cal's pro day was the bench press. I know that lifting is not very important to a receiver but it one that he could have crossed off his list and avoided having to do everything on one day.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I almost don't want to post this since I'm not going to spend a lot time defending it, but I can't help myself.For the most part the coaches and the QB are responsible for getting a WR the ball. It's typical that an NFL caliber talent will see a lot of targets, but there are exceptions. And there are a lot of exceptions where a great college player who doesn't have pro attributes will get a lot of targets.
What a WR does have more control of is what happens after the catch, at least cumulatively -- across his whole career. If he's a guy that's five yards behind a defense, or can make his cover man miss after the reception, or can run over a safety for YAC it shows up in his stats. So the system I use somewhat discounts the number of receptions and looks more at what happens after the coach and the QB have gotten him the ball.
Even then it's true that a terrible QB can affect a WR's performance metric at the margins, but since we're only looking at catches we already know that the play went well enough that the WR got the ball. And (for the most part) poor QB play keeps a guy from getting the ball rather than hurts his numbers once he does.
There are cases where a historically great WR (Calvin Johnson) might have the measures I use deflated by poor QB play (GA Tech's were awful), but it doesn't look like that happens all that much. Even Calvin had a pretty strong performance measure.
Hopefully the idea that an NFL-caliber WR has a lot more control of what happens after the QB gets him the ball than the QB does makes intuitive sense, but if not c'est la guerre.
It's definitely not something I want to have turn into a huge off-topic argument, so I'll leave it with YMMV.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Thanks Donny, I did misunderstand that.
I'd be interested in hearing about how a guy that was top 10 in the nation in receiving yards and receptions gets a negative 'performance' score.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Thanks Alex -- appreciate the thoughts. I know this stuff isn't for everyone, so it's nice to hear from people who like it.I've got my hands full with the 2013 class right now, but the first big post for after I get done is revisiting Julio Jones and AJ Green.Thanks for posting your blog, it is a fantastic read. Not sure why I never saw it before....just finished churning through a bunch of older postings. One question for you: how do you feel about your 2011 WR projections in retrospect?
Excellent blog. You are one of my favorite posters in the SP, hands down.
I struggled more with those two calls than anything else I've done on the blog -- especially Green. The two years since have really cleared things up though (Danario Alexander, Eric Decker and Jordy Nelsen all added some useful info).
Also what's happened over the last couple years is that as I've added new information and figured out what to do with it (the 40 splits, the jumps and QB sack data for example) it's whittled away some of the guys that were previously listed as good prospects. For the most part the only time someone previously ruled out would be added is if there weren't many good comps, but then some emerge. That's what happened with Running QBs (b/w 1999 and 2010 Daunte Culpepper was the only one -- then in two years we had Newton, Kaepernick, Griffin and Wilson).
Last edited by a moderator:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'm not looking at things exactly the way ZWK is, but it's roughly similar. Being good enough that a college coach wants to throw you the ball a lot isn't enough to be a good pro.
Last edited by a moderator:
Considering you're measuring production, I think it's relevant.Simply measuring after the player gets the football isn't fair IMO. I'm currently doing a very in-depth study regarding making defenders miss, from a WR perspective and have had to alter it as well. Poor QB play can affect the WR in more ways than simply not getting him the football. If the ball is too high, the current separation from the defender doesn't matter because the WR has to extend/stop momentum/jump to get possession of the football. Then the defender closes the gap, thus negating YAC. Per your post, this is when you would start measuring data, but is that fair? I know not many passes are perfect, but they're better at the NFL level. If the ball is too high, too short, behind, too far in front, the WR has to stop for it, or has very low velocity it affects the WR's ability to do anything after the catch.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I actually agree with almost everything here TD. Do bad throws affect what a WR can do? Sure. But here's why I don't think they're decisive when looking at a WR's NCAA performance.First, even good QBs have some bad throws. So there's a baseline of poor throws you're talking about built in for all WRs. Plus, the most likely outcome of a bad throw is that it's either broken up or the WR can't catch it at all.And there are also plenty of bad throws where the effect on the WR is to make them work hard for the catch, but that don't really impact what happens after. Think of the iconic Griffin-to-Garcon play against the Saints for example -- terrible throw and a terrific catch, but once he had the ball in his hands Garcon still had enough momentum and speed to break it.Finally, even bad QBs throw plenty of good passes.Taken together I don't believe that the percentage of passes that are catchable, but slow the WR down enough that what happens after that isn't more or less a function of the WR's quality is relatively low -- especially when you subtract out the passes that do that from good QBs that do the same thing.On top of all that, even if you assume that a bad QB's passes do affect a WR they'd have to affect him enough for it to matter. Specifically it would need to move him from having an acceptable performance metric to having an unacceptable one. So even if I'm wrong it's not going to come up very often. Which seems to be backed up by the metric itself -- very few players with negative scores pan out.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'll also add that in a perfect world we'd have charting for the NCAA like Pro Football Focus does for the NFL. I'd love to be able to adjust every throw a QB makes, every run by a RB and every catch by a WR for the quality of the defense they were playing and the scheme the player went against on that play. Most of the time it seems that stuff more or less nets out across a player's career, but I do think it would help clean things up -- especially for players who are in limited or unique roles within an offense or for players on unusually dominant or unusually weak teams (Lendale White at USC or Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt for example).
werdnoynek
Footballguy
you're just kind of side stepping the point... maynard isn't just a bad QB, he's a horrible QB. he doesn't just have some bad throws, really he only has some good throws. sure some of them don't even get there. but the passes that are close are going to be caught by allen. think about a WR having to change direction to get an errant pass, or catch behind him. they aren't going to have many YAC's when the pass is off target most of the time. i'm sure this has affected many WR's throughout history and it may be impossible to accurately compare them to other WR's unless perhaps they had the same QB. i just think in some cases guys should get a pass for their college stats due to the QB they play with or the other talent on the team. in most allen highlights you're going to see 2 or 3 CB's around him after he catches the ball as well - why? teams schemed for him since he was the only threat on the team. if they took him out of the game they won. looking at his college statistics i'm actually surprised he did as well as he did.
Agreed, i'm not sure what people want from him
I only did this quickly because i'm at work. So I only watched the first 5 minutes and here are the plays when he has the football.
#1) :35, WR Screen. Had to reach for the ball. Didn't look bad after the catch.
#2) 1:12, Bubble screen. Nowhere to go, two WRs blocked the same DB.
#3) 1:20, hitch. Throw was outside, he caught it but falling to the ground.
#4) 2:44, WR screen. Immediately had to make someone miss, thought he looked athletic after the catch.
#5) 3:29, bubble. Thought he looked okay after the catch again.
#6) 3:40, delayed slant. Thrown behind him, still got into the EZ.
#7) 4:13, Punt return. Made people miss, thought he looked athletic again.
#8) 4:45, Now route. 3rd and 2, all hand catch for the first down on press coverage.
He had a bunch of screens and a few off the mark throws. Only the Now route, looked to be a solid pass and it was at 5 yards. None of these passes were beyond 7 yards, how can he get big yardage?
EBF
Footballguy
Current positional rankings. Still tweaking some things. Mainly within tiers. No QBs yet.
By now I think I have a pretty good handle on these players. If not with regards to their value, then at least with regards to their skill set and why I rate them where I do. I'm not going to do a full write up at this time, but feel free to ask if you want specifics about certain players.
Eddie Lacy
-----------
Christine Michael
Gio Bernard
----------
Marcus Lattimore
-----------
Knile Davis
Stepfan Taylor
Spencer Ware
Montee Ball
Zac Stacy
LeVeon Bell
Justin Hunter
Da'Rick Rogers
Keenan Allen
Cordarrelle Patterson
------------
Chris Harper
Quinton Patton
Robert Woods
Tavon Austin
Josh Boyce
Markus Wheaton
Deandre Hopkins
------------
Marcus Davis
Marquess Wilson
Ryan Swope
Tyler Eifert
------------
Zach Ertz
------------
Vance McDonald
Gavin Escobar
By now I think I have a pretty good handle on these players. If not with regards to their value, then at least with regards to their skill set and why I rate them where I do. I'm not going to do a full write up at this time, but feel free to ask if you want specifics about certain players.
Eddie Lacy
-----------
Christine Michael
Gio Bernard
----------
Marcus Lattimore
-----------
Knile Davis
Stepfan Taylor
Spencer Ware
Montee Ball
Zac Stacy
LeVeon Bell
Justin Hunter
Da'Rick Rogers
Keenan Allen
Cordarrelle Patterson
------------
Chris Harper
Quinton Patton
Robert Woods
Tavon Austin
Josh Boyce
Markus Wheaton
Deandre Hopkins
------------
Marcus Davis
Marquess Wilson
Ryan Swope
Tyler Eifert
------------
Zach Ertz
------------
Vance McDonald
Gavin Escobar
werdnoynek
Footballguy
good sfuff ebf. i like the list.
i like that hunter is top of the WR's... his drops last season were a bit worrisome but he has the highest ceiling of them all imo and could be special.
i'm curious why franklin isn't in the RB's. i think he's in the 2nd tier, otherwise i agree with the rest of them.
i like that hunter is top of the WR's... his drops last season were a bit worrisome but he has the highest ceiling of them all imo and could be special.
i'm curious why franklin isn't in the RB's. i think he's in the 2nd tier, otherwise i agree with the rest of them.
I don't understand how your rankings can have so much change.
You just listed 10 RBs and 14 WRs, the original list was of 20 with QB/TE, so I get that it was smaller. But now you have 5 RBs and 4 WRs that were previously unranked, ranked. Including the 2nd/5th best RBs and the 5th best WR. How can that be?
Furthermore, you have some large movement. Marcus Wheaton was ranked as your #1 prospect at the start of this thread and he's now your #10 WR, let alone whatever ranked prospect. I would think that someone would have to tear an ACL at the combine to have that big of a change.
Some other big movers:
-Marcus Davis, who you were really high on, went down 8 spots in the WR rankings.
-Marquess Wilson down 8 spots in the WR rankings.
-Cordarrelle Patterson, whom you have consistently discussed is "overrated" has improved 8 spots.
-Da'Rick Rogers up 5 spots in the WR rankings
-Quitton Patton up 4 spots in the WR rankings
I can see guys moving a couple of spots, but not this dramatic. I honestly question how much you watch these players because the combine/pro day/senior bowl should affect them by this much. It's like you enjoy going for shock value intially and then fall back towards the mean/consensus.
You just listed 10 RBs and 14 WRs, the original list was of 20 with QB/TE, so I get that it was smaller. But now you have 5 RBs and 4 WRs that were previously unranked, ranked. Including the 2nd/5th best RBs and the 5th best WR. How can that be?
Furthermore, you have some large movement. Marcus Wheaton was ranked as your #1 prospect at the start of this thread and he's now your #10 WR, let alone whatever ranked prospect. I would think that someone would have to tear an ACL at the combine to have that big of a change.
Some other big movers:
-Marcus Davis, who you were really high on, went down 8 spots in the WR rankings.
-Marquess Wilson down 8 spots in the WR rankings.
-Cordarrelle Patterson, whom you have consistently discussed is "overrated" has improved 8 spots.
-Da'Rick Rogers up 5 spots in the WR rankings
-Quitton Patton up 4 spots in the WR rankings
I can see guys moving a couple of spots, but not this dramatic. I honestly question how much you watch these players because the combine/pro day/senior bowl should affect them by this much. It's like you enjoy going for shock value intially and then fall back towards the mean/consensus.
GeeYouknit
Footballguy
Glad to see someone is just as high on Da'Rick Rogers as I am. I have him #3 on my WR board behind Patterson and Hopkins, and you have Hopkins down at #11 which to me is really low in my eyes.
I am curious to know your reasoning behind having a guy like Lattimore above proven workhorse talents like Ball and Bell (I semi-understand having bell lower but his frame should translate nicely to the NFL) unless your going strickly on talent which in that case I don't see how Michael would be above him either.
I am curious to know your reasoning behind having a guy like Lattimore above proven workhorse talents like Ball and Bell (I semi-understand having bell lower but his frame should translate nicely to the NFL) unless your going strickly on talent which in that case I don't see how Michael would be above him either.
EBF
Footballguy
The initial rankings are a starting point. After that, I am constantly reevaluating the players and taking new information into consideration. That means reading other opinions, following the all star games, going back and looking at the players time and time again, and assessing what the measurements from the combine/pro day might say about a player's outlook. By the end of the process you get a list that's much more solid.
If you never change anything, you get accused of being too rigid. If you react to new information and keep an open mind, you get posts like the one above. My main concern is ending up with the best list possible by the time the draft rolls around. I think the best way to do that is to develop an initial set of opinions early in the process and then challenge them to see what sticks.
EBF
Footballguy
Hopkins is interesting because he has great production and a lot of the pundits like him, but he's consistently underwhelmed me when I've reviewed his game clips and highlights. He just doesn't do it for me. I think he's a bit of a finesse/possession tweener. He has a good height/weight combo, but doesn't play strong like a classic NFL possession WR (as opposed to someone like Rogers). He has no real speed and is not great after the catch. As I've mentioned previously, his workout numbers were not very promising. He ran very crisp routes at the combine and he's a natural WR with strong hands. I don't think he's some horrible bust waiting to happen, but to me he should probably go about a round lower in the NFL draft than where I've seen him projected. I think he's a complementary target at the next level.
As for Ball and Bell, they are not special talents in my view. They are good enough to be stop gap solutions, but that means their value is tied almost entirely to the situation that they land in. Put one of them on a RB-needy team like the Packers, Jets, or Broncos and I will move him up on the chance of a short term pop in value. If you are looking for an enduring starting caliber RB, I don't think either of these guys is it. They're okay, but that's not good enough in the NFL. Not with only 32 starting jobs and 6-8 guys like this entering the league every year.
For the record, this is the worst RB class I've ever seen. Lacy is the only obvious starting caliber back in the draft. This year's second tier would be a third tier in some classes. Putting that aside, Michael is a much more gifted athlete than Ball or Bell. He wasn't as good in college, but his game should translate better.
Never been a big Lattimore fan, but he's a more dynamic runner than everyone but Lacy. My attitude towards him is that if you draft him, you should flip him for a profit once he starts getting back to full health. I think he has too many durability issues to draft and hold. He could provide a pop kind of like Murray did a couple years ago. I would be reluctant to use a top 10 pick on him, but in the early 2nd round the price might be right.
cstu
Footballguy
I thought the same thing when I saw your stubbornness about Cobi. I believe what you seen on the field can be deceptive - if it wasn't then the NFL wouldn't spend so much money doing post-season testing.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
EBF as always I am grateful to you for letting us walk beside you through the evaluation process. There will be big changes again after the NFL draft as well, as where players are drafted will tell another half of this story as we learn what the team scouting departments think of these prospects. As for your current list I think you should have Johnathan Franklin on it even if at the end of your list. There are rumors of him being a 2nd-3rd round pick, CBS is listing him as the 3rd overall RB prospect right now, he should likely be on your list. For WR I think Marcus Davis is an interesting prospect who certainly has nice measurables, however I read that he gives poor effort in his routes and as a run blocker which raises red flags for me. Lots of very talented players who do not make it because of lack of work ethic/attitude. Marquess Wilson has some similar size but even less weight than Davis, he may struggle getting off the line and also does not offer much as a blocker. I have somewhat eliminated both players from consideration because of the poor blocking but the NFL draft could change my mind. WR who I think deserve to be listed are Terrance Williams, Aaron Dobson, Stedman Bailey for sure and possibly Tavarres King as well. I can see not having Stills due to the off the field issues or Cris Harper because perhaps he is too raw to be worth a draft pick, but the others will be drafted pretty high and you will be adding them to your list post draft so why not start getting used to that now?
Last edited by a moderator:
Im kinda surprised to see that Hopkins isnt getting more love. Ive heard hes underwhelming on tape and I couldnt disagree more. While he doesnt possess dez/julio type athleticism, he runs incredibly crisp routes and displays strong ball skills. A Roddy White clone imo. I think the draftnik community sometimes gets a little too obsessed with athleticism and "upside" when it comes to the WR position. Plenty of guys have made great careers off of phenominal route running, and Hopkins is the next one to me.
Xue
Footballguy
He's not a White "clone". White is a more superior athlete. Hopkins is closer to Michael Crabtree than he is to White. Crabtree is a subpar athlete with great route running.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not a big Franklin fan. Even if he goes high in the draft, I don't expect him to end up on any of my teams. I felt that way about Pead and Hillman last year, and thus far it looks like the skepticism was justified. The failure rate on 2nd-3rd rounders is probably 50-65%. Something to keep in mind when these guys are coming through the pipeline.
Marcus Davis is a classic boom-or-bust project. I've talked about him a lot by now. He has a monster frame. Looks like Demaryius Thomas or Vincent Jackson physically. Not quite as natural on the field. The blocking stuff doesn't really worry me. My biggest concern is whether or not he can run routes with enough suddenness to gain separation in the NFL. If he can do that, he has a high ceiling. He actually has very good hands and his production this past season was strong when you consider all of the variables (poor QB play, short schedule, run-first program that's terrible at developing WRs). I think he's likely to be a 4th round pick in the NFL draft.
Bailey is a nobody to me. Not fast enough to get away with being so short. I'm not super high on Dobson. Williams would be right in the mix for the next slot if I expanded the list at all. Clearly he's another guy like Hopkins who doesn't impress me as much as he impresses most people. Draft position is relevant, but it's just one variable. If you don't like a guy, you don't like a guy. Even a lot of the high picks are going to flop, so it's okay to be wary if you're not buying the hype.
EBF
Footballguy
Hopkins has plenty of fans across the pundit spectrum. I'm more skeptical of him than most.
The idea that a WR can become a top NFL player without overwhelming physical traits is actually pretty suspect. Every now and then you get a guy like Chad Johnson who bombs his workouts and lights it up on the field, but as I mentioned on the previous page that's definitely the exception and not the rule. Virtually every elite NFL WR tested well in workouts. If they don't have elite speed, they usually have a thick frame and explosive numbers in the jumps. Or vice versa.
This came up in a previous discussion about Hopkins:
I would argue that Roddy White is not a good comparison for Hopkins. Just look at their numbers and compare them directly:
Roddy White
BMI - 27.2
40 - 4.46
Vert - 41"
Broad Jump - 10'6"
3 Cone - 7.12
DeAndre Hopkins
BMI - 28.2
40 - 4.51*
Vert - 36"
Broad Jump - 9'7"
3 Cone - 6.83
* NFL.com has Hopkins as a 4.57 from the combine, so I'm not sure why Draft Scout has him as a 4.51. IIRC Xue calculated his pro day 40 time by looking at his sprint frame by frame, and came up with about a ~4.60 seconds time. I think he's probably a high 4.5 guy in reality.
Even if you're willing to take the 4.51 time at face value, Hopkins does not hold up to White from an explosiveness standpoint. White's vertical leap was absolutely elite. His broad jump was also quite good. Pair those two numbers with his sub 4.5 40 time and it starts to paint the picture of a vertically explosive player. And that's certainly my recollection of White. When he was at UAB he could run by people. That was probably his best attribute at the time.
Hopkins is a bit heavier. Also has a better three cone time, which jives with my impression of him as a crisp route runner. But I don't think he plays as big as his BMI would suggest. And he's not vertically explosive in any way. He's not going to run by anyone in the NFL. And I don't really see him as a great catch-and-run receiver like Crabtree or Boldin. In my opinion he's a catch-and-fall possession receiver with limited NFL upside. A future #2 that's being misbranded as a potential #1.
Strictly a second tier guy for me.
EBF
Footballguy
While we're on the topic of WRs, this is the group of players that I named who seem to have the best odds of becoming difference makers in the NFL regardless of supporting cast.
I am considering expanding that group to accommodate two players who pose unique dilemmas for different reasons. On one end of the spectrum you have Tavon Austin, who has very borderline size, but rare vertical ability. His 4.35 40 time speaks for itself, and 10' is a good broad jump for a 5'8" person. His low weight and low vert suggest a lack of power. So while he has special qualities, it comes in a strange and unconventional package.
On the flipside, Harper has marginal numbers in most of the major drills. 4.55 in the 40, 35.5" in the vertical leap, and 9'8" in the broad jump. I would normally rule him out as a potential elite player because there's not enough in the numbers, but his case is unique because his off-the-charts BMI makes it difficult to put his performance into context. At 6'0.6" 229 pounds, he has a 30.5 BMI, which is the highest I can remember for a major WR prospect since I started following the draft. To put that into context, he could lose 20 pounds and still have a higher BMI than Julio Jones. He has a higher BMI than Tyler Eifert (29.3), Zach Ertz (29.5), and Jimmy Graham (29.9). The difference in BMI between Harper (30.5) and Larry Fitzgerald (28.3) is almost equal to the difference between Fitzgerald and AJ Green (26.0). In other words, this is a HUGE receiver that we're talking about. His numbers become much more impressive when you consider the fact that he's thicker than a typical TE.
Jimmy Graham
BMI - 29.9
40 - 4.53
Vert - 38.5"
Broad Jump - 10'
3 Cone - 6.90
Chris Harper
BMI - 30.5
40 - 4.55
Vert - 35.5"
Broad Jump - 9'8"
3 Cone - 6.89
What this tells me is that for his height/weight, Harper is actually an outstanding athlete. Graham trumps him in the broad jump, but that's easily explained by the fact that Graham is 5+ inches taller (the broad jump favors tall players because they have longer legs/longer strides). All of the analysts talk about Tavon Austin as a matchup nightmare because of his insane speed and quickness, but Harper will present a massive challenge for pro corners in his own right. He has the foot quickness of a normal WR, but will outweigh most corners by about 30-40 pounds. I think he's a better prospect than Woods/Patton/Hopkins and will present great value somewhere between picks 45-80 in the draft.
If you want to take all subjectivity out of the equation, Swope and Rogers probably have the fewest question marks. Each of them has a 1000+ yard season in a major BCS conference, a BMI in the ideal range, an acceptable 40 time (especially Swope), and excellent numbers in the jumps (especially Rogers). Hunter is very close, but suffers a bit when you factor in his rail thin frame. Patterson checks out physically in every respect, but simply doesn't have a track record of receiving production. Boyce has an awesome bulk/explosiveness combo, but disappointed in the vertical leap and never cracked 1000+ yards in a college season. The other guys are a little more flawed on paper, but at least have some special athletic qualities. I think this group represents a great starting point if you're strictly looking for potential top tier impact players in this WR class.
I am considering expanding that group to accommodate two players who pose unique dilemmas for different reasons. On one end of the spectrum you have Tavon Austin, who has very borderline size, but rare vertical ability. His 4.35 40 time speaks for itself, and 10' is a good broad jump for a 5'8" person. His low weight and low vert suggest a lack of power. So while he has special qualities, it comes in a strange and unconventional package.
On the flipside, Harper has marginal numbers in most of the major drills. 4.55 in the 40, 35.5" in the vertical leap, and 9'8" in the broad jump. I would normally rule him out as a potential elite player because there's not enough in the numbers, but his case is unique because his off-the-charts BMI makes it difficult to put his performance into context. At 6'0.6" 229 pounds, he has a 30.5 BMI, which is the highest I can remember for a major WR prospect since I started following the draft. To put that into context, he could lose 20 pounds and still have a higher BMI than Julio Jones. He has a higher BMI than Tyler Eifert (29.3), Zach Ertz (29.5), and Jimmy Graham (29.9). The difference in BMI between Harper (30.5) and Larry Fitzgerald (28.3) is almost equal to the difference between Fitzgerald and AJ Green (26.0). In other words, this is a HUGE receiver that we're talking about. His numbers become much more impressive when you consider the fact that he's thicker than a typical TE.
Jimmy Graham
BMI - 29.9
40 - 4.53
Vert - 38.5"
Broad Jump - 10'
3 Cone - 6.90
Chris Harper
BMI - 30.5
40 - 4.55
Vert - 35.5"
Broad Jump - 9'8"
3 Cone - 6.89
What this tells me is that for his height/weight, Harper is actually an outstanding athlete. Graham trumps him in the broad jump, but that's easily explained by the fact that Graham is 5+ inches taller (the broad jump favors tall players because they have longer legs/longer strides). All of the analysts talk about Tavon Austin as a matchup nightmare because of his insane speed and quickness, but Harper will present a massive challenge for pro corners in his own right. He has the foot quickness of a normal WR, but will outweigh most corners by about 30-40 pounds. I think he's a better prospect than Woods/Patton/Hopkins and will present great value somewhere between picks 45-80 in the draft.
I get what you're saying, but it's not like I had Cobi Hamilton my #1 overall player and now he's a second round rookie draft player. Their has to be some conviction in your scouting or else what credability does it have?
