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[Dynasty] 2014 Draft Prospects (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Xue
- Start date
Penguin
Footballguy
I'm a big Mariota fan, right now I'd rather have him than any of those guys sans Bridgewater.
jeter23
Footballguy
I'm no scout, but it seems silly to totally disrespect Xue's opinion, even if it is way off from the norm. What if this were several years ago and he called Charles Rogers the 13th best WR in the class? Or Big Mike Williams? Or any other of the dozens of WRs to bust over the years. Just because it's not a popular opinion doesn't mean it's wrong or stupid.
Based on the little I've seen, I like Lee a lot. I consider him a top 2 or 3 WR in the class and a top fantasy pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he busted. We'll know soon enough.
Based on the little I've seen, I like Lee a lot. I consider him a top 2 or 3 WR in the class and a top fantasy pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he busted. We'll know soon enough.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I agree with the concept on this. But good luck trying to engage him. You might say he's "prickly" -- or is just one of those people who thinks everyone is out to get him. We all know the type.
So there's a video of a 20-turning-21 year old Lee making some awkward catches en route to 118 receptions for 1500 yards as a sophomore. Beyond that, what exactly is his argument? He's already acknowledged that he's a "phenomenal" athlete. He's tried to color Lee as small ("195 pounds??")... and yet not mentioned that (1) he could add bulk, you know, now that he's legal drinking age, (2) his hand technique could possibly improve, and (3) WRs like Owens did not have awesome hands but were still physically dominant -- just as Lee appears to be.
In the hopes of encouraging discussion - I'll throw this out there. At times, he tends to round of the corners of his routes. Other times, he makes sudden cuts that really create separation. Again, I don't think this is beyond improvement given that his 2012 season was played right around turningage 21 in November. That he's not Reggie Wayne in terms of routes and hands as a sophomore is worth noting, but it's not clear to me WHY that would make him #13, as opposed to say, #5, when clearly he possess other tools that are elite. I mean, Coradelle Patterson .. come on, Lee isn't as raw as that. Is there any data to suggest he has a higher drop rate than his peers as USC because of the hands?
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
jurb26
Footballguy
This thread has somewhat gotten off track. I don't think anyone is personally attacking Xue so much. They are attacking his rankings and reasoning, though. That's going to happen when you post them. It's especially going to happen when you know some of them are way outside the norm, such as Lee. I think where Xue went wrong was this statement;
"Everything I've seen of Lee isn't as impressive as what you've been told or read."
It insinuates that others don't watch the players and just believe what they read. That may or may not be true for some people. Even if it is true, it sends an elitist kind of know it all message. You know, the message that Xue knows better than you or you're resources. I don't think it was intentional. I think it was more misinterpreted.
I watch a lot of college football and a lot of these players. Is it more or less than other guys? I have no idea. I'm guessing more than most but less than some but I have no way of really knowing that. Nor does he or anyone else. So, claiming it seems a bit silly to me.
All that aside I know Xue puts a lot of time into this and I value that along with his opinion. I don't agree with them all and that is the nature of this game. EBF and I don't often agree either but I still value his thoughts and the work he puts into it. In the end we are all here to simply bounce ideas about this stuff off one another and hopefully learn something that will give us an edge. Or perhaps just entertainment... Either way!
I won't dredge through the Lee thing as we already had a discussion on him earlier. I am however curious as to why Beckham is so high on the list. Personally, I like his teammate more than him as it translates to the NFL.
"Everything I've seen of Lee isn't as impressive as what you've been told or read."
It insinuates that others don't watch the players and just believe what they read. That may or may not be true for some people. Even if it is true, it sends an elitist kind of know it all message. You know, the message that Xue knows better than you or you're resources. I don't think it was intentional. I think it was more misinterpreted.
I watch a lot of college football and a lot of these players. Is it more or less than other guys? I have no idea. I'm guessing more than most but less than some but I have no way of really knowing that. Nor does he or anyone else. So, claiming it seems a bit silly to me.
All that aside I know Xue puts a lot of time into this and I value that along with his opinion. I don't agree with them all and that is the nature of this game. EBF and I don't often agree either but I still value his thoughts and the work he puts into it. In the end we are all here to simply bounce ideas about this stuff off one another and hopefully learn something that will give us an edge. Or perhaps just entertainment... Either way!
I won't dredge through the Lee thing as we already had a discussion on him earlier. I am however curious as to why Beckham is so high on the list. Personally, I like his teammate more than him as it translates to the NFL.
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JFS171
Footballguy
I'll be the first to say that you and many others on this board know a WHOLE lot more about evaluating prospects than I do, and that your work and willingness to share those views is greatly appreciated. It's extremely helpful to guys like me that didn't grow up playing the game, haven't been around it in a coaching/scouting role, and only have the eye test, stats, and the underwear olympics to judge.
But the line above that I've highlighted doesn't mesh with you ranking Lee 13th overall. On the one hand, you prefer Richardson and Greene over him, even stating that "Lee is no more talented than Richardson and Greene." On the other, you don't feel strongly against Lee being Top 5. Which is it?
Again, given my lack of expertise in this arena, I'm often searching for as much information from credible sources as I can. When I see someone rank a guy I believe is a clear top talent -- by the tools I have available to me and the consensus opinion of nearly everyone (even borderline top 5 by his own admission) at #13 overall at his position, it makes me question the credibility of the rankings.
Xue
Footballguy
I love Lee as an athlete. He could probably play CB or FS with the kind of backpedal, hip turn, and hip flexibility he possesses. Lee COULD bulk up bit it's very unlikely. WRs rarely ever bulk up once they get to the NFL. The only one I can think off the top of my head is Antonio Bryant who was 188 at the combine and ended his career at 205-210.
http://www.bestsportsphotos.com/image.php?productid=21552
http://img.spokeo.com/public/900-600/antonio_bryant_2008_11_30.jpg
Owens was 6'3", 220+. Like I said before, guys that size can succeed with less refinement. But being 6', 195 with no special routes and hands? Sorry those guys don't "dominate".
I wasn't that high on Patterson and I'm not sure I'd put him over Lee or vice versa. He's definitely an elite athlete to me. Lee certainly has tools but he's not "elite". His ceiling is Denarius Moore, but that's only if he develops stronger ball skills. If you think Lee is elite than you should think the same regarding Moore. I really like Denarius Moore and I can grow to like Lee as well. But not from what I've seen.
Xue
Footballguy
Beckham can be a star in the NFL. His change of direction and leaping skills are elite to me. He does have some concentration drops, but he wins a lot of jumpballs. He has elite YAC ability. I don't think he has elite speed, though, but that's fine, he won't need it. I've seen some Golden Tate comparisons, but I think his ceiling is much higher.
Landry is a solid WR but I don't see a high ceiling. Can be a very good slot guy like Brandon Gibson (not a straight up comparison). He does lay out for balls and can stretch and snatch, but mostly falling away and doesn't get too far off the ground. Beckham simply elevates much higher and can jump over DBs effortlessly.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Did you notice how he did against Hargraves and Purifoy? I watched the game as a fan, but wasn't pay too close attention to the matchups.Xue said:
Where do you rank Hargraves among the freshman class? I don't watch outside of the SEC enough to compare him outside the SEC - but he's damn impressive. He looks as good as any corner prospect to come out of Florida, already, as a freshman, imo.
Xue
Footballguy
I haven't seen that game. And I generally don't watch defensive prospects too closely so I can't really comment. All I can say is that, from the draftniks that I value, many find Purifoy overrated and have Roberson over him with Heargraves arguably the best or 2nd best CB in all of CFB.
Jason Verrett is regarded a top 2 CB in this draft and Beckham held his own against him. So take that for what it's worth.
EBF
Footballguy
Gonna throw the flag on that one. Lee is twice the player Moore will ever be.Xue said:
Look at what Keenan Allen and Robert Woods are doing as rookies and consider that Lee is better than both of them.
There's a reason why all the draft analysts have him as a first round pick and it's not because they're clueless fools. He will be a great chess piece as a versatile weapon who can do damage out of the slot, but also line up out wide and run all the X receiver routes as well.
EBF
Footballguy
Lee is also a much better athlete than both of those guys. Woods was a five star all-everything recruit out of high school and immediately became an impact player for USC, but by his final year there he had clearly become second fiddle to Lee. Not just in production, but also in terms of playcalling. It was evident watching the games that the coaching staff prioritized Lee. And it was also evident why. He's the better talent.
The hands thing is overblown. I've seen him make 2-3 really bad drops on wide open deep routes. Overall though, you don't catch 118 balls in 13 games if you have terrible hands.
As for Lee being a smaller guy, never once watching him play for USC did I ever think he was undersized. He might not be VJax or Demaryius, but he isn't a little guy. I compared him to Justin Blackmon because Blackmon is under 6'1" and 207 pounds, but on the field he plays big. Lee also plays a lot bigger than his listed height/weight. Partially because he's a pretty built guy and partially because he seems to have a long wingspan. He will be taller/heavier than most cornerbacks, so it's really not a huge issue. Watch him play and honestly ask yourself whether he looks undersized:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIjzTV0r1po
This is one thing that distinguishes him from Beckham (who I also like). Beckham is a tough and strong player, but he just looks shorter on the field. To the point where you notice it. If I didn't know that Lee might only be a hair over 5'11" I would guess that he's 6'1" because that's what he looks like. Very similar to Greg Jennings in that sense.
Xue
Footballguy
You're underselling Moore. He would have been drafted much higher if he had Tyler Bray for a full season.
Here is a cutup of Moore: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq_rMJIlPiI
He's the same size as Lee's listed size. He even lines up fairly similar. Not "butt out" like some other, but not "hunched over" with a lot of forward lean either. He was equally explosive in a "tougher" SEC conference, and I use that term "tougher" loosely. I'd say his routes are no worse than Lee. But he does something Lee can't do. Something I've pointed out before: make the "turnaround" catch (and attack the ball). Lee lets the ball come to him too often and he rarely outleaps defenders. Again, pointed out before.
Woods is a nice player, but Stevie Johnson is still the best WR on that roster. Lee is the best athlete of Allen and Woods, but Allen and Woods were better pure receivers. I'd give the edge to Allen because he's bigger, stronger, already had a sense of routes, can plant and cut much harder, attacks the ball, and has stronger ball skills. Being a better athlete doesn't automatically mean you're a better prospect at your respective position.
There you go bringing up "analysts" again. I don't pay attention to "mass media analysts". Feel free to clarify who "all the analysts" are.
To get a feel of how close Beckham and Lee are, Josh Norris brought up this question: https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/389119893540700160
If Lee is a "weapon" why would teams want to take him in the 1st? You can get Brandin Cooks in the 2nd or 3rd, who does all those things you just described, yet is a better pure WR anyway. I mean Tavon Austin was a "weapon", but he was way overdrafted. Brandin Cooks is a better version of Austin: slightly bigger, but might not time as fast (but definitely faster than Wheaton), is one of the best in YAC, yet already exhibits better feel for the position.
EBF
Footballguy
We'll agree to disagree on this one. I think you put too much weight in high pointing/extending at the expense of all the other variables. From some of the clips you've posted (Kenneth Scott, Davante Adams, Austin Franklin) and some of the players you've hyped up (Sean Franklin, Cody Hoffman, Aaron Dobson) I think it's pretty clear that you have a strong preference for WRs who make those leaping sideline catches. To the point where I think you overvalue that quality and don't lend enough weight to others. Lee is primarily a catch-and-run receiver and with the success of guys like Cobb/Harvin/Hilton I think there's a pretty clear blueprint for how to use him.
One of the things I've learned from following the draft over the years is not too overthink things too much. If someone is a dominant force at the college level, a legitimate athlete at the combine, and a first round pick on draft day then he'll probably be successful. I wouldn't say that Lee is a lock to become a superstar, but I do think he's nearly a can't-miss proposition to at least become a solid NFL starter with upside to be more than that. I think he'll go in the 15-32 range in May and I think he'll justify that price tag with his performance.
One of the things I've learned from following the draft over the years is not too overthink things too much. If someone is a dominant force at the college level, a legitimate athlete at the combine, and a first round pick on draft day then he'll probably be successful. I wouldn't say that Lee is a lock to become a superstar, but I do think he's nearly a can't-miss proposition to at least become a solid NFL starter with upside to be more than that. I think he'll go in the 15-32 range in May and I think he'll justify that price tag with his performance.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I appreciated your initial response that brought up Moore, but wanted to respond to a few things.
(1) You also use the term "more explosive" rather loosely.
Are you basing that simply on YPR -- in that Moore had a higher YPR on 47 catches than Lee had on 118 catches? Care to take a guess what Moore's YPR would've been had he caught the ball 118 times?
There's a reason why "all the analysts" (defined as: 32 front offices, scouts, GMs and coaching staffs) passed on Moore 32 times, on 4 consecutive rounds. I really like Moore, btw, he's a nice WR3 and fun to watch. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Lee has a higher ceiling, and that Lee will be at minimum a 2nd round draft pick, very possibly a 1st.
(2) Does Josh Norris count as an "analyst"?
Xue
Footballguy
(1) I used the term "tougher" loosely, not "explosive". I'll ask an equally good question, if Lee had speed to separate why isn't he used downfield more? I think you mean to ask, "If Moore was used the same way as Lee, what would his YPR be?". I've also compared Lee to Jeremy Maclin before. Maclin was a "weapon" for Mizzou and used very similar to Lee was in college. I think Lee can be productive, but not "dominant", just like Maclin, who got to play with DeSean Jackson drawing a good amount of coverage himself. Who has Denarius Moore played with?
You're going play the draft position game? So you're going to rank the WRs in the order they were drafted? There's going to be players drafted highly that you won't agree with and I'll just come back with "oh but he was drafted highly so I'll rank him highly as well because NFL teams know what they're doing".
(2) Yes, but what matters to you is do you count him?
Xue
Footballguy
I have strong preference for "big" or "bigger" WRs. But that's a bit too general. Watkins isn't a "big" WR, but more of a tweener and much closer in size to Blackmon than Lee is. You don't see me talking him up because everyone knows what he's capable of. Lee simply isn't on Watkins' level as an athlete and WR. Watkins has a Roddy White ceiling with Torrey Smith floor. I do like smaller WRs as well, but you'd better be able to make some cuts and be strong on contested balls.
Cobb changes direction much better and plays with Aaron Rodgers. Harvin gets forcefed the ball and is simply much tougher and stronger than Lee. Hilton can get YAC and also make plays downfield with leaping grabs. But as I said before, if you want a WR to be used as such, just take Brandin Cooks. If there was a "primarily catch-and-run" WR I'd compare Lee to, it's Pierre Garcon, BUT Garcon is slightly thicker and stronger. And again you probably won't like the comparison because you might not like Garcon. If I want a "catch-and-run" WR I'd go after Ty Montgomery, who is bigger, stronger, and equally explosive on the field. Montgomery offers just as much upside with just as little polish as Lee: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ahwrq3x-Us .
I'm only about as guilty of overthinking on Lee as you are underthinking the rest of this WR class. You seem to like Allen Robinson a lot, BUT he's very much same player as last year. The only difference is that he has a freshman QB with a stronger arm who is forcefeeding him the ball because he can't read the field or buy time to find other receivers. DeVante Parker isn't much different or any less talented than him (as I've stated on that other forum). Parker plays with Bridgewater who sees the whole field and spreads the ball around. He leads the team in TDs, but his yardage is low because (1) he doesn't play 100% of the snaps like Robinson, (2) Louisville employs many 3-WR and 4-WR sets, (3) and the emergence of Kai De La Cruz and Gerald Christian.
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Xue
Footballguy
You don't catch 118 balls in 13 games because your hands are good either. It's because your team throws so much and there is primarily only 1 other WR on the field (of which is talented and trusted to stay on the field and not rotate because the rest of the corps isn't ready). Also, because there are numerous screen plays. How many of these receptions leaders do you think have "good" hands: http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/national/player/split01/category03/sort02.html ???
It's a myth that Lee "plays big" because he simply lacks ball skills and isn't an explosive leaper like Beckham. Again, I've pointed that out before, but you choose to ignore it. The difference between looking 5'11" and 6'1" is negligible when the 5'11" guy plays bigger than the 6'1" guy, just like Steve Smith (5'9") playing bigger than most 6' guys.
Xue
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
That Lee does a lot of the things you are saying he doesn't, per you're earlier video that was highly disingenuous. I've seen Lee high point the ball, pluck the ball, come back to the ball and fight for it and catch cleanly with his hands many times. To me, his weaknesses are more about football IQ, going for the big play too often and discipline making catches in tight spaces. The big play tendency is a common one for athletes of his caliber who have been able to get away with it all their lives. The traffic catching is something that can be worked on rather easily, but is no guarantee to get better.
I'm not sure where to rate his route running seeing SC simply hasn't asked him to do all of them. They pretty much just try to get him the ball in space because he's so go at it.
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buck naked
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
My top 3 are basically in one tier and 4-13 are in a large second tier with the "bigger" guys at the top of that tier. The highest I'd move up Lee is 6th between Robinson and Hoffman. Of course this is all pre-draft. I might move Cooks up as well. Outside of the top 3, I basically have a lot of similar WRs bunched together right now. Combine and team situation will clear things up more when the time comes.
Don't treat my rankings as projections as to where they're expected to be drafted.
JFS171
Footballguy
Completely tracking with you there - I think that's most analysts outside of the guys at the mothership trying to project who will go where. I understand the difference.
Thanks for addressing the question - and the tiers do help. I personally believe your rankings would gain credibility if you had Lee 6th instead of 13th... that's something I could conceivably buy. Obviously this is your work though, and you've got to stay true to what you believe. I just have a lot of trouble buying that there are 12 WRs that will be better on Sundays than Marquise Lee.
JFS171
Footballguy
I read the article behind that the other day - doesn't say if this guy is the one lone wolf in declaring the RB class extremely weak. If Seastrunk lives up to the hype on his athletic traits, he's going to demolish the combine. I wouldn't be shocked if he was the highest rated RB entering the draft since Trent. Devaluing of the position likely pushes him to late first / early second, but still... there's a potentially elite option.Faust said:
Perhaps he's talking about depth, but it would seem this draft has good potential from that perspective as well, including a pretty strong second-tier with Gordon, Sankey, etc.
Maybe I'm wrong...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Lache seems to have more buzz in the FF community than with draftniks; not many are projecting him to a first round pick, at this point. I think it's fair to say he's not a Trent-level prospect, and isn't likely to be - by the talking heads, at least.
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JFS171
Footballguy
Probably fair -- I think folks expect him to be a lot smaller than he may actually end up being. In other words, more Gio than every-down guy (though plenty would argue Gio can be every-down himself).
My take is that Seastrunk is bringing a pretty elite package of athletic traits to the table. He's built low to the ground with big legs, and has production to match the athleticism. I'm admittedly smitten...
My point still remains - people hated on last year's RB class as well, and already Lacy, Gio are emerging as legit weapons for their teams, and Bell and Stacy are emerging as well. Christine Michael flashed big-time potential in preseason action. I just think it's too early to completely write off a RB class.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd certainly agree; about Lache and the class. I like Lache as much as I liked Lacy, at this point, before Lacy had as many questions as he did on draft night. I think he's a solid 1st round prospect at RB. Others have a shot to join him. In relation to QB, WR, and TE - RB is certainly weak. But a lot of that has to do with the talent at the other spots.
EBF
Footballguy
Yeah, I looked at him in the offseason because he was a highly rated player out of JUCO. Thought he looked pretty promising. Seen some bits and pieces of his games with ASU. Solid player. Big time NFL upside? I'm not so sure. There are probably at least 3-4 WRs in the conference who look better. Maybe he's a better athlete than I realize, but I think he should probably stick around for his senior year.
plastik
Footballguy
With you on this too. I think I'd have had Lache ahead of all the RBs in this past class, and I think the 2014 class could be pretty good depending on who declares. Jeremy Hill could give the class a big boost, I think, and I'm sure there will be some unexpected senior who ascends with a strong season and post season like Martin did in 2012.
On a related topic... Devonta Freeman had a pretty decent game tonight on a big stage, despite a low ypc... anyone have some thoughts on his NFL prospects? Seems like he's got a good build.
jeter23
Footballguy
Hill will certainly declare considering his off field issues. He barely made it back on the team this year.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Already plenty of Freeman talk in here and the other college prospects thread, just "search this topic" in the top right of your screen and you'll find a number of posts referencing him.
After Seastrunk there's not a draft eligible RB that I'd rather have than Freeman.
After Seastrunk there's not a draft eligible RB that I'd rather have than Freeman.
jeter23
Footballguy
Rodeojones
Footballguy
Jace Amaro, TE, TTU continues to impress. 15/174/1 against OSU.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
I find Gordon to be a really hard player to gauge between Wisconsin's dominant O-line and Gordon's usage in that gadget end-around rush package where he always seems to pick up a tonne of yards. Maybe I'll change my mind between now and draft day, and I realize most mock drafts/draft experts like Gordon a lot more than Freeman, but if I had to choose between them today I'd rather have Freeman. Freeman's a real safe pick for solid NFL production imo.
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