EBF
Footballguy
That seems like a big stretch seeing as he might only be the third best RB on his college team. He's been effective this season, but I don't know that he's THAT good.
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[Dynasty] 2014 Draft Prospects (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Xue
- Start date
jurb26
Footballguy
Somebody who has watched UCF QB, Blake Bortles... Talk to me. He's a guy who's picked up a ton of steam the past few weeks but I've had off my radar and honestly, haven't seen a single full game. I'm reading that he's maybe the #2 QB in this class now and a sure first rounder.
MAC_32
Footballguy
pressure got to him vs South Carolina, but he showed all the skills you would want in beating penn state and Louisville. Hope he gets a tough matchup in their bowl game.
MAC_32
Footballguy
unfair comp, Carr handles pressure so much better than gabbert
coolnerd
Footballguy
I watched him yesterday and he has the tools, but did not look like 1st rounder in terms of production. Threw a ton short although his arm looked fine when he did go down the filed. He has above average mobility and should test well as an overall athlete. Admittedly, he did not get much help from his teammates, but he was playing a non-bowl team and really did not move the ball consistently.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
He looked like a system QB to me. He threw a large porportion of bubble screen passes last night. The ball was out under 5 seconds on every play. The game plan worked because his Frezno wide receivers are superior to the competition. I really think he will have to be totally retrained like Gabbert at the NFL level.
I really like Blake Bortles because his game is a better fit with the NFL. Sometimes you need to hold the ball and read the defense before delivering the pass.
I will admit I have only seen a small sample of each.
Xue
Footballguy
Just because he's 3rd string doesn't mean he's the 3rd best. Karlos Williams is my #1 Senior RB next season if he doesn't declare and I'd put him ahead of Wilder and Freeman this year. He's just as physical as Wilder but a better athlete, has better burst and long speed. He was a 5* Safety recruit.
Melvin Gordon was 3rd string last year. Any casual football fan would have been able to see he was the most talented.
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Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
A combination of this having been the first season he's played RB since high school, and having 2 other NFL quality RBs on his team. And there's other possibilities like the coaches are saving him for next year, or are simply making an error in not giving him more carries, etc.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Seeing as he's on the team with the best RB corps in the nation, that's not necessarily the worst thing to say. But frankly I think he's the best RB on that team (and I like Devonta Freeman more than anyone I think), and he definitely has the most upside. Karlos is the type of physical specimen that you only see once every few years. To see a guy who looks like this make defenders look like they're running in quicksand like he does every game is scary impressive.
TheGreatSpinks
Footballguy
That and Gabbert struggled to throw for 60% completion rating in a short passing/spread offense. The red flags where everywhere with Gabbert. If Carr's brother wasn't David, He wouldn't have the naysayers he does. The guy can play.
And a bit off topic, but David Carr could have been a stud, if not for being thrown into the worst possible situation and getting throttled by opposing defenses in Houston.
EBF
Footballguy
That's debatable. I think Georgia, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Alabama would have a pretty good case for that distinction.Time Kibitzer said:
I won't say that Williams has no chance, but you might be overrating his talent pretty severely. Most of his long runs were just straight shots against tired and demoralized teams in the 3rd-4th quarter of blowout wins. It can be tough to evaluate a RB when you don't get to see how he functions in difficult conditions. Can he make any cuts? Can he run inside? These are questions that haven't been answered yet. And while he has a nice weight/speed ratio, he's really not that huge for his height. Actually has more of a lean/slasher kind of look. Kind of in the middle between Knile Davis and Darren McFadden.
He warrants a mention and could end up being a great pick as a swing for the fences kind of guy, but to say he has a chance to become the best runner IN THE NFL based on what he's shown to date is a leap of faith that I wouldn't be comfortable making yet. He's got lots of hurdles to clear before that becomes a reality.
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Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
I completely understand that there won't be many or any who are comfortable making such a claim on a guy with so few carries, and normally I'd think I'd be in that group, but as someone who puts a lot of stock into the eye test, Karlos just completely blows me away every single time I watch him. Simply stating that he has that kind of potential doesn't mean I think it's a foregone conclusion to happen, but obviously I'd be more than willing to take my chances on draft day.
With his 8.2 YPC he's got a lot of long runs, and a good number of them have come off inside runs. Karlos is very much a north-south runner, so making quick sharp cuts isn't really his forte. He is able to change direction at high speeds though, as evidenced on his long runs against Idaho 2 weeks ago.
As for his body type, I think Karlos' body is a lot more compact than the long legged McFadden. I'd say Karlos looks a good deal more similar to someone like the old Larry Johnson.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I'm having a hard time separating Robinson, Adams, and Evans. They seem to all be in the same tier for me, with Mathews, Moncrief, Richardson, and Cooks clearly behind right now. The combine, draft position, and landing spots will mix these tiers up greatly for me. And there are other guys that I haven't watched enough of yet, like the LSU duo.
How do you guys rank them? Are Robinson, Adams, and Evans roughly equal for anyone else right now? I'm leaving out Watkins and Lee for this discussion because people usually have pretty solid opinions on them one way or another.
How do you guys rank them? Are Robinson, Adams, and Evans roughly equal for anyone else right now? I'm leaving out Watkins and Lee for this discussion because people usually have pretty solid opinions on them one way or another.
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Milkman
Footballguy
One thing to keep in mind is who those three WR are playing. Out of the three Adams has played the easiest opposition and he plays in the most pass friendly offense. So his numbers are a little inflated. However, he is starting to completely dominate that opposition. Evans is tough to rate because it's impossible to be confident in how his game will translate to the NFL. Robinson seems like the safest pick out of the three right now.
I have a feeling Evans is going to be a little disappointing at the combine. Adams is going to blow the combine up. It will be interesting to see how Robinson does. He's a great jumper plus he has potential elite YAC skills.
I have a feeling Evans is going to be a little disappointing at the combine. Adams is going to blow the combine up. It will be interesting to see how Robinson does. He's a great jumper plus he has potential elite YAC skills.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I was thinking the opposite, that Evans would surprise at the combine and make people take a second look. I think you could look at Jeffery for a similar handsy jump-ball type who people feared wouldn't be able to separate at the next level. Except Evans is bigger and Jeffery is better after the catch.
jurb26
Footballguy
I see more of Mike Williams than Alshon Jeffery in Evans, personally. I'm curious to see him at the combine. He doesn't look like an elite athlete to me. If he test well, I'll take a second look.
Xue
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Pretty much exactly what people said about Jeffery, and then they didn't trust his 4.48 40 at his pro day (understandable). He had the stigma with the fat picture and the down year before declaring, as well.
jurb26
Footballguy
I was all over Jeffery. Said he was the best WR in his class even when it wasn't popular.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
That's actually good to know in the context of this discussion. So you aren't seeing the same underrated athleticism in Evans, obviously?
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Fair enough. With all of these prototypically sized guys coming out this year, all capable of plucking the ball well, using their size well, and scoring TD's from all over the field, the combine is going to do a lot of the separating for us. Along with their eventual draft pedigree.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Jeffrey had a major production problem.
jurb26
Footballguy
Jeffery had a QB problem. They are not the same.
MAC_32
Footballguy
it was more than just the wounded ducks served by Garcia. He developed once getting away from South Carolina. Something he didn't do much of on the field at school.
EBF
Footballguy
I like Robinson the most. I have him in the first tier with Lee and Watkins. He's not super super fast and he doesn't have great bulk for a WR, so he could be a guy who slips a little bit in the offseason when combine numbers start to dominate the conversation. Even though he's a tall receiver, he's really not cut from the same cloth as the typical "big" #1 like VJax, Demaryius, or Andre. If those are the measuring sticks, he's going to come up short. He's more of a technician like Reggie Wayne or AJ Green. A fluid, rangy receiver with sneaky athleticism and great route running ability.
People talk a lot about speed at the WR position, but I think the lesson of guys like Keenan Allen/Anquan Boldin/Michael Crabtree/Rueben Randle vs. someone like Jon Baldwin is that initial suddenness and an explosive first step are critical to success. The ability to run efficient routes and/or drive out of your plants and breaks is critical. I think that's why some sluggish big body guys like Jon Baldwin and Chris Harper failed despite solid size/40 speed while "slow" players like Allen and Boldin have been able to carve out a niche. It's an area where Robinson really shines. For a tall guy, he is very agile. Very quick first step. You can see some of his best plays here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1go3MU9Cou4
I think there are receivers in this class with more dynamic athleticism. Watkins comes to mind. Beckham is more explosive. Evans has imposing size. But when you add up all of the variables I think Robinson has a chance to be the best WR in the draft. Not totally dissimilar to how Reggie Wayne slipped through the cracks a little bit in the 2001 draft only to have a much better career than some of the flashier options who were picked higher (i.e. David Terrell, Rod Gardner, Freddie Mitchell). He just has the look of a very safe projection, especially if he can go to a team where he can be a 1B kind of guy like Wayne was earlier in his career or Jennings/Nelson on the Packers. He's not going to be the one man wrecking crew ala Calvin/TO/Moss, but as a cog in the machine he can be a perennial 1000 yard guy.
I'd like to see Evans at the combine before I have a concrete verdict on what he'll be, but right now I'm pretty lukewarm on his prospects. I tend to prefer agile players and he's a bit stiff and straight-linish from what I've seen. A long strider without much elusiveness. I'll probably rank him a little bit below the average.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
He's not goofy or anything, but he's definitely thin. Seems to have freakishly long arms, but we'll see how he measures.
I see what you mean he's built. He's not like Justin Hunter. But he's a long, loose athlete who looks to be all arms and legs. Doesn't look fragile, though.
I see what you mean he's built. He's not like Justin Hunter. But he's a long, loose athlete who looks to be all arms and legs. Doesn't look fragile, though.
Xue
Footballguy
I really like all 3. Evans is a taller Floyd/Jeffery, Robinson is a better version of Rueben Randle, and Adams is Hakeem Nicks/Stevie Johnson.
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EBF
Footballguy
I'm a little behind on Adams. Haven't been wowed by what I've seen, but at the same time I haven't seen nearly enough yet.
EBF
Footballguy
Big and strong is all relative. They list him at 6'3" 210, which would equate to a 26.2 BMI. That would be pretty huge compared to the average civilian walking around on the streets, but relative to the average NFL WR that's a low weight/height ratio. It's right in the same range as Green and Wayne. A typical "big" receiver will be in the 27.5-29.0 range like Andre, Fitzgerald, Dez, and Crabtree. I would say Robinson has solid overall strength, but in terms of style and physique he is more of a finesse player. More similar in body proportions to guys like Ochocino/Wayne/Green than Andre/Fitz/Dez.
Keenan Allen is another one in the same range from a body type standpoint with a 26.4 BMI. Rueben Randle is also in that range with a 26.5 BMI. Incidentally, this type of receiver generally doesn't blow the doors off the combine. Maybe it's because they have relatively low muscle mass for their height, but they usually don't show the same degree of measured explosiveness in the drills that you get from the more rocked out high BMI guys. They excel more through fluidity, body control, suddenness, and receiving skills than by overwhelming people with an insane weight/speed/explosiveness ratio. The fact that several players of this style have been successful without the great combine numbers is something that makes me optimistic that Robinson will have a similar outcome.
As I said earlier, I think the weight is likely to be somewhat on the lower end of the scale (26-27 BMI) and the 40 time unlikely to be much better than a 4.50. So there's a pretty big risk factor that he comes out of the combine looking like a pedestrian athlete, which I think is a little misleading. I would not get too wrapped up in it if he has "meh" numbers. He's just not the type of guy to really dominate in that setting. Having said that, I've seen Robinson reported with a 37-38" vertical and a 10'8" broad jump from Penn State sources, so it might be a moot point (though he clearly doesn't have great sheer top speed). He might have a decent combine when the dust settles.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
These guys all seem close enough that eventual draft position and landing spot are going to be huge for me. None of them are transcendent talents that would make you pass on a guy half a notch lower than them on the talent scale but with a great situation.
Milkman
Footballguy
Tre Mason was moved up to the #2 ranked RB on draft scout after is huge day against Missouri in the SEC Championship Game. Could this be one of those RB we were all hoping would come out of nowhere this year? He doesn't look very fast but he seems to finish his runs well and he sets his blocks up good too.
biju
Footballguy
I'm probably reading him wrong, but to me he looks sneaky fast. Smooth perhaps to a fault--kind of similar and oddly the opposite of someone like Marshawn Lynch where you think he's running slow because there is no way someone can run fast running like that.
The obvious concern here is the system. Some of the holes he's running through would net my grandmother 6 yards. And I'll tell you, Marion isn't moving too fast these days.
Xue
Footballguy
He didn't get any more talented or show me anything I hadn't already seen before. I don't understand these 1-game overreactions by a major media outlet, among others. It's like they didn't even know who he was before the game even though he plays in the SEC. I'm still waiting for them to put Ameer Abdullah in the top 5.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
I'm starting to come around on Hyde some as well, despite his lack of cutting ability. Guy's just a load with good speed, and he gets to full speed pretty quick too for such a big back. I think he has really good vision as well; I like that he doesn't dance around in the backfield at all. If he ends up in a good situation he's prob a good bet for a top 5 pick in rookie drafts.
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ZWK
Footballguy
Looking at some RB stats (long runs, short yardage success rate, ypc) and combining them to get a single ranking, here is a leaderboard of the RBs with the top numbers this season (min 100 carries):
Tevin Coleman Indiana SO
Lache Seastrunk Baylor JR
Melvin Gordon Wisconsin SO
Carlos Hyde Ohio State SR
Terry Baggett Army JR
Javorius Allen USC SO
Charles Ross Rice SR
Jeremy Hill LSU SO
Kapri Bibbs CSU SO
Henry Josey Missouri JR
Shock Linwood Baylor FR
Byron Marshall Oregon SO
Stephen Houston Indiana SR
T.J. Yeldon Alabama SO
Michael Gordon Ark St SO
Devonta Freeman FSU JR
Antonio Andrews Western Ky SR
Thomas Tyner Oregon FR
Kenneth Dixon La Tech SO
Bishop Sankey Washington JR
Of course, these numbers reflect the team & the system (and luck) as well as the player.
Players not making the top 20 (out of 70 RBs that I looked at) include James White (#22), Andre Williams (#25), Tre Mason (#30), Ameer Abdullah (#35), Charles Sims (#43), Ka'Deem Carey (#44), and Marion Grice (#52).
Tevin Coleman Indiana SO
Lache Seastrunk Baylor JR
Melvin Gordon Wisconsin SO
Carlos Hyde Ohio State SR
Terry Baggett Army JR
Javorius Allen USC SO
Charles Ross Rice SR
Jeremy Hill LSU SO
Kapri Bibbs CSU SO
Henry Josey Missouri JR
Shock Linwood Baylor FR
Byron Marshall Oregon SO
Stephen Houston Indiana SR
T.J. Yeldon Alabama SO
Michael Gordon Ark St SO
Devonta Freeman FSU JR
Antonio Andrews Western Ky SR
Thomas Tyner Oregon FR
Kenneth Dixon La Tech SO
Bishop Sankey Washington JR
Of course, these numbers reflect the team & the system (and luck) as well as the player.
Players not making the top 20 (out of 70 RBs that I looked at) include James White (#22), Andre Williams (#25), Tre Mason (#30), Ameer Abdullah (#35), Charles Sims (#43), Ka'Deem Carey (#44), and Marion Grice (#52).
MAC_32
Footballguy
UGH! I thought he may slip under the radar and I could pick him up with a late #1. May need a new plan...
