[Dynasty] 2014 Draft Prospects (2 Viewers)

[EBF]

Watkins height is concerning but I don't think it really effects his floor as much as it effects his ceiling. He's not likely to be a top 5 WR because the chances of him being an elite redzone target are slim. He's still not a midget at 6'1ish. He could easily settle in the 6-12 range for WR and that's still WR1 territory........

Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt all around 6'0". Crabtree 6'1". Watkins is imo faster and more explosive than all four (prep 10.3-10.4 100 m.?).

* Some have said his explosiveness is reminiscent of Percy Harvin, not sure about that (one of the quickest players I've seen), but if he was, he is listed at 5'11" 185 lbs. Creating a frankenstein monster version of Harvin that was two inches taller and and twenty pounds heavier would be nasty. In the first half of 2012, Harvin was up there with Calvin Johnson as the most productive WR.

Watkins is a unique guy and a lot of the frequent comparisons I see are pretty wonky.

He doesn't have the sideways agility of Crabtree or Harvin. More straight-line. Almost awkward in the way that he moves (think Mike Wallace). That's probably fine because he's really fast and big enough with good mits. Catch the ball, turn upfield, and burn. That's his game in terms of YAC. Not a juker like Crab.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Watkins height is concerning but I don't think it really effects his floor as much as it effects his ceiling. He's not likely to be a top 5 WR because the chances of him being an elite redzone target are slim. He's still not a midget at 6'1ish. He could easily settle in the 6-12 range for WR and that's still WR1 territory........

Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt all around 6'0". Crabtree 6'1". Watkins is imo faster and more explosive than all four (prep 10.3-10.4 100 m.?).

* Some have said his explosiveness is reminiscent of Percy Harvin, not sure about that (one of the quickest players I've seen), but if he was, he is listed at 5'11" 185 lbs. Creating a frankenstein monster version of Harvin that was two inches taller and and twenty pounds heavier would be nasty. In the first half of 2012, Harvin was up there with Calvin Johnson as the most productive WR.

Watkins is a unique guy and a lot of the frequent comparisons I see are pretty wonky.

He doesn't have the sideways agility of Crabtree or Harvin. More straight-line. Almost awkward in the way that he moves (think Mike Wallace). That's probably fine because he's really fast and big enough with good mits. Catch the ball, turn upfield, and burn. That's his game in terms of YAC. Not a juker like Crab.

Yeah, I'm sure there are things Crabtree can do that Watkins can't and vice verce (as we noted, Watkins is significantly faster). Crabtree came up more as a height comp, that WR1s don't all have to be 6'3"-6'5". These are approximations, but some are better then others, so thanks for the skill set input and comp refinements. Wallace is listed at 6'0" 195 lbs., and on film Watkins plays bigger and stronger and looks to have more tackle breaking ability, so that is probably something Watkins is superior to Wallace in. Also, if you saw Watkins second TD in the bowl game (some were impressed by, some thought routine), I'm not sure Wallace plays the ball in the air as well, though he is definitely a burner, one of the league's premier deep threats and with enough shake to be very dangerous after the catch if he makes the initial defender miss. He clearly missed Rothliesberger's ability to extend plays his first year in Miami.

 

[EBF]

Watkins height is concerning but I don't think it really effects his floor as much as it effects his ceiling. He's not likely to be a top 5 WR because the chances of him being an elite redzone target are slim. He's still not a midget at 6'1ish. He could easily settle in the 6-12 range for WR and that's still WR1 territory........

Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt all around 6'0". Crabtree 6'1". Watkins is imo faster and more explosive than all four (prep 10.3-10.4 100 m.?).

* Some have said his explosiveness is reminiscent of Percy Harvin, not sure about that (one of the quickest players I've seen), but if he was, he is listed at 5'11" 185 lbs. Creating a frankenstein monster version of Harvin that was two inches taller and and twenty pounds heavier would be nasty. In the first half of 2012, Harvin was up there with Calvin Johnson as the most productive WR.

Watkins is a unique guy and a lot of the frequent comparisons I see are pretty wonky.

He doesn't have the sideways agility of Crabtree or Harvin. More straight-line. Almost awkward in the way that he moves (think Mike Wallace). That's probably fine because he's really fast and big enough with good mits. Catch the ball, turn upfield, and burn. That's his game in terms of YAC. Not a juker like Crab.

Yeah, I'm sure there are things Crabtree can do that Watkins can't and vice verce (as we noted, Watkins is significantly faster). Crabtree came up more as a height comp, that WR1s don't all have to be 6'3"-6'5". These are approximations, but some are better then others, so thanks for the skill set input and comp refinements. Wallace is listed at 6'0" 195 lbs., and on film Watkins plays bigger and stronger and looks to have more tackle breaking ability, so that is probably something Watkins is superior to Wallace in. Also, if you saw Watkins second TD in the bowl game (some were impressed by, some thought routine), I'm not sure Wallace plays the ball in the air as well, though he is definitely a burner, one of the league's premier deep threats and with enough shake to be very dangerous after the catch if he makes the initial defender miss. He clearly missed Rothliesberger's ability to extend plays his first year in Miami.

Yea, I mean it is a bit ironic to fault people for making weird comparisons and then make one myself. Watkins and Wallace are hardly clones. Sammy looks to be stronger, grittier, and more elusive.

I'm beginning to realize that comparison-itis is a disease that plagues our little Internet draft pundit community. It's like people can hardly mention an NCAA prospect's name without also tossing out some ill-fitting NFL comparison. I've been as guilty at times as anyone, but in reality no two players are exactly alike (except the Barber brothers) and any time you invoke another player's name as a like-for-like comparison you can bet that some of the parts won't match up.

I don't see anyone in the league who looks like Watkins or plays like Watkins. That doesn't have to be a bad thing. There is nobody else in the league like Chris Johnson or LeSean McCoy. The question is does he do enough of the essential things at a high enough level to be a standout. I think the answer is probably yes. Legitimate burner speed. Enough height and weight. Good wingspan and hands in traffic. A little bit of quickness. Add it all up and I think he can be pretty good even if he isn't a perfect clone of <insert Pro Bowler name here>.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I wasn't being critical, like I said, I appreciate the input and refinement.

I've heard you mention this more this year. I think comps are more straightforward with simple attributes like height and weight (even there, a second RB also about 5'8" 208 might not have mammoth, tree trunk thighs like Ray Rice and be put together in exactly the same way, Walter Payton had a very strong upper body, etc.). Skill sets are far more complex, and can involve constellations of traits and atttributes. In that case, it can be useful to cite several examples as a kind of bracketing shortcut, or three like in triangulating the epicenter of an earthquake. Like Mike Evans, some compare him to Vince Jackson, but he isn't as fast or explosive. But he may have similar size and be faster than Marques Colston. No writer is exactly like Hesse, Camus or Cormac McCarthy. No painter exactly like Van Gogh or Dali. No musician exactly like Bach, Mozart or Beethoven. But well informed literary, artistic or musical historians (like Gary Giddins in jazz) do a good job conveying similarities and differences. Arthur Koestler had an interesting background. A novelist (dystopian, anti-communist classic Darkness at Noon), he went to Spain during the civil war, was captured, accused of being a spy and sentenced to death, received a last minute reprieve through the intervention of the British, I think, and devoted himself for the rest of his life to writing about the humanities and life sciences in classics such The Act of Creation, The Sleepwalkers and The Ghost in the Machine (the inspiration for the fourth album by the Police). His novelist background and gift of language gave him a masterful facility for creating metaphors to, not oversimplify, but to make complex intellectual, scientific and historical subjects and ideas intelligible with crystalline lucidity.

Language can be like a gun, it can be good or bad depending on how you use it. You can lie or mislead people with it, you can perpetrate evil like dictators, or inspire like MLK. Mostly, compared to cavemen, i think of it as a conceptual apparatus or scaffolding to help us order and make sense of what would otherwise be a bewildering array of external perceptions (to say nothing of the world of abstract principles that opens up). Comps are a short hand. You watch a lot of football, and if you have a good memory and way to organize the information in a sort of hierarchy of principals where some things are more fundamental and important, others more tangential and peripheral, that might be ideal, and you may not have the need for such a crutch as comps. For some, it is helpful to say this guy is like that guy, or a sort of combination of these two guys. Making the unfamiliar known through using more familiar examples (or a combination). It must be how language was built up, metaphorically. At one time, nails weren't described as having a head on them, or roads having shoulders, but at some point somebody described them that way and it stuck. Maps are handy, but a full scale one of the US that was 3,000 miles wide wouldn't fold into the glove compartment very well.

Chess is another example that comes to mind. I don't know if the number of possible permutaions/games is infinite, but it is certainly very large. How do masters describe common games to each others. Do they just try and memorize every possible move of every possible game. That would be unwieldly. What they do, is memorize certain common patterns and sequences of moves, maybe openings, end games, how the board is organized by controlling the center, etc. The ultimate, is the current world champion, who has a functional working knowledge like everybody else of common blocks or sequences of moves and patterns and ways of structuring and organizing the positions, coupled with something approximating a photographic memory. But most people aren't like that, and in the world of football scouting, knowing some common constellations of successful traits and attributes are a necessary and essential kind of short hand.

The human brain and memory are remarkable. But it is important that they work at the right level of detail to function best. I saw somebody recently I hadn't seen in decades, but I instantly recognized him. The brain is an astonishing pattern recognition engine. You might see an actor only once or twice, and than see them many years later and recognize them, even if they have aged, maybe there face is seen at a different angle. Imagine if you were working for a singing repertory company (not that I am an opera buff)... but had no categorization or classificatory schema AT ALL. it would be tough to replace somebody who was retiring if the talent scout, who had a photographic memory and knew every individual professional singer in the country clearly and distinctly without resort to labelling them, himself retired. Far better to sort by bass, baritone, tenor, soprano, contralto, alto, etc., so you can quickly and easily fill the gig. Back to faces, it is a convenient way to remember our friends. It would be a lot tougher to remember people you went to high school with or in a large workplace if you had to try to commit to memory individual fingerprints or retinal patterns. You are right, everybody is unique. Even identical twins, if you look closely, don't have an identical distribution of freckles or moles. Everybody alive has a beating heart and breathes, but not one of six billion plus people does so in the exact same way. Nobody on the face of the planet thinks the exact same way, or sees or hears, or notices the same things.

Sometimes discussion in the threads can get contentious, but if the alternative meant everybody always agreeing about everything and always saying, exactly right, you said everything I would, not a word more or less - that would be a nightmare, like a twilight zone episode, so we should count our blessings that we see things differently, even if at times that is forgotten in a particularly "robust debate".

Anyways, I think comps have a function and serve a purpose. There are different kinds of tools, jackhammers and diamond setting instruments. I definitely wouldn't want to set a diamond with a jackhammer, but also wouldn't want to bust up a driveway with a diamond setting tool. A jackhammer is a pretty blunt instrument, but that could be like the coarse grained, easy work of sorting speeds and heights and explosiveness measureables BY POSITION. The fine grained work, is coming up with well chosen, skillful and accurate skill set comps, perhaps by expressing them as a range of two or three players, and making clear how the exemplars are alike and unlike that player you are trying to describe, making the unfamiliar intelligible by linking it with the familiar and known (which you do a very good job of, BTW, so don't sell yourself short, on the service you perform for the board and generosity of your time in helping lots of people think and see more clearly about these matters).

Newly discovered species ultimately still are going to fit in known genus and species organizational patterns (unless/until we encounter some kind of alien life form, and even than it could have connections to our own). The very power of having concepts to organize percepts can be a curse as well, to perceiving things freshly and newly. Maybe meditation can help some people bypass ossified and hardened cognitive pathways and see things in a new, child-like (not childish) way. Maybe Da Vinci was able to maintain his lifelong sense of wonder and discovery in something approximating this manner. When we look at a field of flowers, our thoughts might gurgle up from our pre-linguistic consciousness (like a Rodin relief sculpture struggling to emerge from the matrix it is embedded in) into an ultimately boring and not very representative way of what we are actually, and could potentially be... looking at - umhh, sunflowers, yellow, done. What was it like for Van Gogh? He must have have seen dozens, hundreds, thousands of shapes in their unique individuality, myriad shades of yellow? The ultimate would be able to perceive the world like an artist (but categorize it like a scientist).

"If the doors of perception were cleansed every thing would appear to man as it is, Infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things thro' narrow chinks of his cavern."

William Blake* (in the archaeological excavation that is the history of ideas, the precursor to Aldous Huxley's Doors of Perception, who in turn extended the lineage down to and "through" Jim Morrison and the Doors).

* A Blake painting of a late era Vince Lombardi doing his legendary... seal here, and a seal here and he runs. in the alley.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/Blake_ancient_of_days.jpg

 

[Milkman]

Roddy White seems like a good comparison for Watkins. Nothing wrong with that. If Watkins has a career like Roddy people would happily take him #1 or #2 this year.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'm beginning to realize that comparison-itis is a disease that plagues our little Internet draft pundit community. It's like people can hardly mention an NCAA prospect's name without also tossing out some ill-fitting NFL comparison. I've been as guilty at times as anyone, but in reality no two players are exactly alike (except the Barber brothers) and any time you invoke another player's name as a like-for-like comparison you can bet that some of the parts won't match up.

Totally agree that it's very rare for two players to line up exactly, but also believe that comparing players to similar players from previous years is a great way to get an initial read on a guy.

In the case of Watkins we need more info since he doesn't have an obvious win trait, but the package seems to be pretty solid all-round. Using the estimated measurables at NFL Draft Scout I'd put him somewhere between Jeremy Maclin (probably a bit smaller and not quite as good as Watkins) and Justin Blackmon (who is probably a little bit bigger and a little bit better than Watkins).

If he's bigger than listed he'd compare well(ish) with Nicks and Crabtree. If he's faster than listed he might be Torrey Smith+.

So with what we're being told today I'd feel pretty good saying Watkins is a good NFL WR -- a weak #1 or a strong #2 -- and that he should have some fantasy value. But that he's probably not worth the type of rookie pick he's commanding today. I'd rather save those top couple picks on a guy that looks like he has an elite ceiling, or trade it for someone that's currently producing at that anticipated level.

 

[Milkman]

So with what we're being told today I'd feel pretty good saying Watkins is a good NFL WR -- a weak #1 or a strong #2 -- and that he should have some fantasy value. But that he's probably not worth the type of rookie pick he's commanding today. I'd rather save those top couple picks on a guy that looks like he has an elite ceiling, or trade it for someone that's currently producing at that anticipated level.

Yeah this ^^^^^. He's a great trade asset because he is being overvalued right now. When his trade value reaches it's peak teams might be better off cashing in.

 

[Faust]

The team at NFLDraftScout.com and CBSSports.com is updating their scouting reports and here is the one for Sammy Watkins:

Sammy Watkins, WR

Excerpt:

Overview

A unanimous top 50 recruit coming out of South Fort Myers in Florida, Watkins was rated as the top wide receiver in the country by 247Sports.com. The all-time leading receiver in Lee County history with 133 catches for 2,997 yards and 36 career touchdowns.

Watkins burst onto the scene as a true freshman, catching 82 passes for 1,219 yards and 12 touchdowns. He added 231 yards on 32 carries and returned 33 kickoffs for 826 yards and one touchdown. Watkins was voted a first team All-American by Pro Football Weekly, the Associated Press and FoxSports.com.

While he wasn't as productive in 2012 after serving a two-game suspension to begin the season and with defenses focused on containing him, Watkins still caught 57 passes for 708 yards and three touchdowns. He earned honorable mention All-ACC from the coaches and media, while also returning 13 kickoffs for 257 yards in 10 games.

Watkins returned to his elite form in 2013, catching 101 passes for 1,464 yards and 12 touchdowns. He closed out his prolific Clemson career with a dominating 16-catch performance in the Tigers' dramatic victory over Ohio State in the Orange Bowl.

A more dynamic athlete than former teammate and Houston Texans' 2013 first round pick DeAndre Hopkins, Watkins caught his passes on a variety of routes, including quick screens to take advantage of his ability to make defenders miss in close quarters, deep passes due to his acceleration and jump balls to highlight his leaping ability and hand-eye coordination.

Every fan of the sport knows that there is a difference between timed speed and football speed. Football is rarely a game of straight-lines, making fluidity and general athleticism much more critical than just a 40-yard dash time. In much this same way, some receivers possess a natural ability to pluck the ball, tuck it away and accelerate in one smooth motion that makes them even greater than the sum of their parts.

Sammy Watkins is one such receiver.

Analysis

STRENGTHS: Smooth acceleration and doesn't take long to get up to full speed. Follows blocks well with controlled burst to weave through defenders - multiple gears to win at every level of the field.

Sharp footwork off the line of scrimmage to beat press and get vertical with his galloping strides. Terrific body control and coordination with smooth hips and joints. Good depth in his routes with quick footwork in/out of his breaks, working the soft spots vs. zone.

Above average ball skills and has shown steady improvements in this area over the years. Nice job adjusting his frame and watching the ball into his soft hands, snatching the ball and quickly getting upfield. Good hand size and uses his quick mitts to pluck off-target throws. Tracks well with the hands to highpoint and finish.

Good patience before bursting to top speed and sets up his routes well - veteran at playing the ball and the defender. Dangerous catch-and-go pass catcher and will create yardage on his own, forcing poor angles by defenders. Tough and will lower his pads to initiate contact. Active blocker and gets the job done in this area.

Versatile experience lining up wide, in the slot and in the backfield - also as an impact return man. Productive career, school-record for career receiving yards.

WEAKNESSES: Only average height with a leaner than ideal build, lacking elite muscle definition or strength. Lacks elite speed and more of a glider. Not overly physical and won't break many tackles.

Hands are steady, but he'll have his share of focus drops, especially when he hears footsteps - a few botched returns on his resume. Room to improve his reliability on 50/50 passes. Minor durability concerns. Character needs investigated - arrested in May 2012 on drug-related charges.

COMPARES TO: Mix of Torrey Smith (Ravens) and Percy Harvin (Seahawks) - Watkins has the size and vertical ability of Smith and the acceleration, toughness and multiple gears like Harvin.

--Dane Brugler (1/5/13)

 

[Spike]

I'm beginning to realize that comparison-itis is a disease that plagues our little Internet draft pundit community. It's like people can hardly mention an NCAA prospect's name without also tossing out some ill-fitting NFL comparison. I've been as guilty at times as anyone, but in reality no two players are exactly alike (except the Barber brothers) and any time you invoke another player's name as a like-for-like comparison you can bet that some of the parts won't match up.

Totally agree that it's very rare for two players to line up exactly, but also believe that comparing players to similar players from previous years is a great way to get an initial read on a guy.

In the case of Watkins we need more info since he doesn't have an obvious win trait, but the package seems to be pretty solid all-round. Using the estimated measurables at NFL Draft Scout I'd put him somewhere between Jeremy Maclin (probably a bit smaller and not quite as good as Watkins) and Justin Blackmon (who is probably a little bit bigger and a little bit better than Watkins).

If he's bigger than listed he'd compare well(ish) with Nicks and Crabtree. If he's faster than listed he might be Torrey Smith+.

So with what we're being told today I'd feel pretty good saying Watkins is a good NFL WR -- a weak #1 or a strong #2 -- and that he should have some fantasy value. But that he's probably not worth the type of rookie pick he's commanding today. I'd rather save those top couple picks on a guy that looks like he has an elite ceiling, or trade it for someone that's currently producing at that anticipated level.

So are you saying he's not your #1 skill position player in dynasty league rookie drafts for 2014? If so, who is?

 

[Faust]

2014's Quarterback Conundrum

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'm beginning to realize that comparison-itis is a disease that plagues our little Internet draft pundit community. It's like people can hardly mention an NCAA prospect's name without also tossing out some ill-fitting NFL comparison. I've been as guilty at times as anyone, but in reality no two players are exactly alike (except the Barber brothers) and any time you invoke another player's name as a like-for-like comparison you can bet that some of the parts won't match up.

Totally agree that it's very rare for two players to line up exactly, but also believe that comparing players to similar players from previous years is a great way to get an initial read on a guy.

In the case of Watkins we need more info since he doesn't have an obvious win trait, but the package seems to be pretty solid all-round. Using the estimated measurables at NFL Draft Scout I'd put him somewhere between Jeremy Maclin (probably a bit smaller and not quite as good as Watkins) and Justin Blackmon (who is probably a little bit bigger and a little bit better than Watkins).

If he's bigger than listed he'd compare well(ish) with Nicks and Crabtree. If he's faster than listed he might be Torrey Smith+.

So with what we're being told today I'd feel pretty good saying Watkins is a good NFL WR -- a weak #1 or a strong #2 -- and that he should have some fantasy value. But that he's probably not worth the type of rookie pick he's commanding today. I'd rather save those top couple picks on a guy that looks like he has an elite ceiling, or trade it for someone that's currently producing at that anticipated level.

So are you saying he's not your #1 skill position player in dynasty league rookie drafts for 2014? If so, who is?

I won't really know who I like best until the combine.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Torrey Smith is a pretty great comp for Watkins.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Auburn junior RB Tre Mason will declare for the NFL draft.

Mason was the focal point of Gus Malzahn's rushing attack all season and displayed an ability to break first contact, find creases in the line, and fall forward for extra yards. We doubt he has the talent to enter the top-40 picks, but Mason should be a third-round pick at worst. The running back added that is where the NFL Draft Advisory board projected him. He has run well for two seasons now.


Source: Joel Erickson on Twiter

Auburn RB Tre Mason declares for NFL draft

By Chase Goodbread

College Football 24/7 writer

Auburn running back Tre Mason has decided to declare for early NFL draft entry despite a projection from the NFL Draft Advisory Board that projects him as only a third-round draft choice.

"After all the thought, talking to family and friends, I talked to my mom and dad, went over it a lot with them, I'm going to declare for the 2014 NFL Draft," Mason said, according to al.com.

Although the junior may only project as a third-round pick, prospects at his position tend to declare early more than others because running backs tend to have the shortest NFL careers. The logic is simple enough: While returning to Auburn may have helped his draft stock for the 2015 draft, it may have also shortened his pro career by delaying its beginning.

Mason broke Bo Jackson's single-season rushing record at Auburn with his final carry in the BCS title game, a 37-yard touchdown against Florida State that gave him 1,816 yards for the year. Jackson, however, played in the era of 11-game regular seasons and without conference championship games.

Mason (5-10, 205 pounds) used a late-season surge to become a Heisman Trophy finalist and elevate his draft stock, rushing for over 100 yards in his last six games, and at least 164 over his last three against Alabama, Missouri and FSU. His departure leaves Auburn coach Gus Malzahn with another hole in his lineup to fill in spring practice, along with left tackle Greg Robinson, who also declared for early NFL draft entry.

Follow Chase Goodbread on Twitter @ChaseGoodbread

 

[Soulfly3]

Tre Mason in the third is robbery for whoever gets him. I wouldn't be shocked at last first early second. At all

 

[Faust]

Dane Brugler ‏@dpbrugler

Just like at QB, there is no "consensus" top RB this year. Tre Mason, Sankey, Seastrunk, Carlos Hyde, Ka'Deem Carey the favorites #NFLDraft

The Combine, Pro Days and the NFL Draft will help to sort this out for the FF community.

 

[Faust]

Prospects Inc ‏@NFLProspectsInc

Updated: Top-5 Wide Receivers

1. S.Watkins

2. M.Lee

3. M.Evans

4. J.Matthews

5. O.Beckham Jr

 

[steelcityman]

I got the #1 pick in our dynasty league, and Mason will get much consideration, esp if the Browns dont draft him.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I got the #1 pick in our dynasty league, and Mason will get much consideration, esp if the Browns dont draft him.

Why ? the browns could be a great landing spot.

 

[steelcityman]

Because they are the Browns and will find a way to screw it up.

 

[Faust]

Big Board: Loss in BCS title game isn't hurting Auburn's Greg Robinson

by Rob Rang | NFLDraftScout.com

Jan. 9, 2014 2:12 PM ET

Jameis Winston won the Heisman Trophy and became the first freshman quarterback to lead his team to a national championship, but the Florida State Seminoles star is not on the immediate radar of NFL scouts -- if only because he won't be eligible to consider the NFL Draft until after next season. But there were plenty of prospects primed for the NFL competing in the BCS title game who left lasting impressions on their draft stocks.

Two of Winston's teammates -- defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan and wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin -- also enjoyed strong performances against Auburn. While the Tigers ultimately were disappointed with the loss, redshirt sophomore left tackle Greg Robinson's stock continues to skyrocket following a stellar performance on the big stage.

The Big Board isn't a mock draft. There is no attention given to team needs or the projected selection order. It is simply a ranking of the 32 best prospects potentially eligible for the 2014 NFL draft.

* indicates underclassman

1. DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina (6-6, 268, 4.65)*: There is no denying that Clowney failed to live up to expectations statistically. He also inflamed concerns about his maturity with two speeding tickets before the Gamecocks' bowl game. Clowney's red flags are real, but so is his talent. Imposing, explosive and more technically sound than many realize, Clowney competes only with former No. 2 overall pick Julius Peppers (2002) as the most gifted defensive end prospect I have ever seen.

2. QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville (6-3, 220, 4.65)*: In an era in which college quarterbacks' numbers are often inflated by short passes and relatively simplistic schemes, Bridgewater's sparkling production is due to Pro Bowl-caliber accuracy. His success (71 percent completion rate with 31 touchdowns against just four interceptions) comes out of a pro-style offense that requires him to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage and complete NFL throws. Those traits make Bridgewater an ideal fit in new Houston Texans head coach Bill O'Brien's offense, making him the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick of the 2014 draft.

3. OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M (6-5, 305, 5.14): The son of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, Jake proves the cliché true -- the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. He has played well at left tackle this season after starring at right tackle over his first three years. Matthews is a terrific football player, demonstrating impressive technique, strength and consistency. He is not, however, an elite athlete and some view his future back on the right side in the NFL.

4. OT Greg Robinson, Auburn* (6-5, 320, 5.38): Redshirt offensive linemen rarely earn more than a whisper in scouting circles, but the buzz around the Tigers' star left tackle is becoming deafening. Physical and tenacious, Robinson is a grizzly bear in the running game, mauling opponents with an exciting blend of size (6-5, 320 pounds), strength and athleticism. Auburn's reliance on the running game, however, has given Robinson few opportunities in pass protection, meaning he could struggle initially in this role. Robinson isn't as polished as Matthews, which is why he ranks behind the Aggies' star for me, but the redshirt sophomore possesses an extraordinary upside which could lead to his earning a higher selection come draft day.

5. OLB Anthony Barr, UCLA (6-4, 238, 4.73): Barr's emergence as one of the nation's elite NFL prospects has been well documented. A running back early in his career, Barr exploded in 2012 in his first season on the defensive side of the ball and backed it up with another spectacular campaign in 2013, including 65 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 10 sacks and five forced fumbles, earning him the Lott IMPACT Trophy. His burst, length and power make him tough to handle on the edge.

6. WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson (6-1, 200, 4.49)*: NFL scouts love players who rise to the occasion in big games, and no one played better under the bright lights of bowl mania than Watkins, whose 16 catches for 227 yards and two scores guided Clemson to a 40-35 victory over Ohio State in the Orange Bowl. Watkins is an explosive athlete whose instant acceleration, impressive body control and natural hands to pluck the ball should earn him Pro Bowl consideration early in his NFL career.

7. OLB Khalil Mack, Buffalo (6-3, 248, 4.66): With an FBS-record 16 career forced fumbles and record-tying 75 career tackles for loss, Mack's statistics jump off the page. Against the most gifted opponents he faced this year (Ohio State, Baylor, Connecticut) it was his game that jumped off the screen. His size, instincts and agility as an edge rusher make him equally intriguing to teams operating out of a 4-3 or 3-4 alignment.

8. OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M (6-5, 300, 5.15)*: Overshadowed by all of the talent on the Aggies' roster, Ogbuehi is an exciting prospect in his own right. A standout at right guard a year ago, Ogbuehi (pronounced ah-BOO-hee) took over for Jake Matthews at right tackle in 2013 and has excelled. Possessing long arms and light feet, Ogbuehi offers higher upside than his more celebrated teammate and projects as a left tackle in the NFL.

9. OLB C.J. Mosley, Alabama (6-2, 232, 4.56): While a bit undersized, Mosley might be the best pound-for-pound player in the country. Athletic and instinctive, he is a true three-down linebacker capable of making plays against the run and pass. Mosley lacks the bulk scouts want in a pass rusher but his awareness in coverage is special. While the tape is phenomenal, Mosley has undergone multiple surgeries (knee, shoulder) over his career and could be the latest Alabama player to receive medical red-flags from some evaluators.

10. WR Marqise Lee, Southern Cal (6-0, 195, 4.51)*: A nagging left knee injury hampered Lee for much of the 2013 season, robbing the 2012 Biletnikoff Award winner of his trademark elusiveness and acceleration. Finally healthy in the Las Vegas Bowl against Fresno State, however, Lee showed off his playmaking ability, hauling in seven passes for 118 yards and two scores. Lee's relatively slight frame could lead to durability issues in the NFL, but his first-round skill set is undeniable.

11. CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State (5-11, 197, 4.52): Quick feet, loose hips and a fluid turning motion make Dennard a classic cover corner capable of shutting down half the field. Dennard allowed only three completions in 31 passes of 15-plus yards targeted against him this season. His ability in coverage played a huge role in the Spartans' run to a Rose Bowl victory, and was recognized with Dennard winning the Thorpe Award as the nation's elite defensive back. The only factor keeping Dennard from a selection in the top half of the first round is the question about his straight-line speed.

12. TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina (6-4, 245, 4.67)*: Ebron possesses a jaw-dropping combination of size and athleticism that has earned comparisons to 49ers star Vernon Davis. Like Davis, however, Ebron struggles with consistency, relying too much on his athleticism rather than dedicating himself to learning the finer techniques of the position. Ebron will forgo his senior season and enter the 2014 draft.

13. QB Blake Bortles, Central Florida* (6-3, 230, 4.78): A prototypically built pocket passer with good awareness, athleticism and arm talent, Bortles looks the part of an NFL starting quarterback. He is methodical in his set-up and delivery of the ball and is a bit inconsistent with his accuracy, but the mettle he showed in guiding UCF to several comeback victories in 2013 has scouts buzzing. Bortles isn't as polished as Bridgewater, but he may possess an even higher upside. A top 10 pick is likely and it isn't out of the question that he'll rank as the best quarterback for some, potentially including new Houston Texans head coach Bill O'Brien, who lost to Bortles' UCF team in 2013.

14. QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M (5-11, 210, 4.45)*: Manziel's vision, elusiveness and accuracy while on the move make him a mesmerizing prospect who will almost surely be drafted earlier than I rank him. While dynamic throughout his career -- including in the Aggies' thrilling comeback over Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl -- red flags were raised with mediocre performances against LSU and Missouri to end the regular season. Bottled up in the pocket by both, Manziel was unable to throw his receivers open and he struggled. The NFL rule books have never been more accommodating to dual-threat passers, but consistent accuracy from the pocket remains the most critical element to quarterback play at the next level.

15. OT Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama (6-5, 312, 5.12)*: Nick Saban questioned draft analysts for pegging Kouandjio as a first-round talent before the season, but given the junior left tackle's exciting skill-set the projection has been an easy one. Long-armed, athletic and aggressive, Kouandjio boasts many of the traits scouts are looking for in a potential Pro Bowl offensive tackle. However, a lack of elite foot quickness was exposed by the Oklahoma Sooners pass rush in their Sugar Bowl upset win over the Tide.

16. QB Derek Carr, Fresno State (6-3, 215, 4.78): Carr's staggering production (68.2 completion percentage, 50 TDs, 8 INTs) was certainly inflated by head coach Tim DeRuyter's QB-friendly spread attack and legitimately talented receiving corps, but there is no denying his talent. His release and velocity are as impressive as any college quarterback in the country. Unfortunately, Carr's career ended with a thud in a disappointing performance against USC in the Las Vegas Bowl. Hit early by an athletic USC front, Carr developed happy feet and misfired often in the 45-20 beatdown. The loss left Carr 0-2 in bowl games and may add fuel to the speculation that he'll struggle with pressure in the NFL, just as his older brother, David, did after leaving Fresno State as the No. 1 overall pick in 2002 and playing behind a poor offensive line for the expansion Houston Texans. Carr needs to restore his slipping stock with an impressive performance at the Senior Bowl.

17. WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M (6-5, 225, 4.58)*: Like Manziel, Evans is just a redshirt sophomore, but he has shown star ability in dominating the SEC. Deceptively fast and possessing great body control as well as timing, Evans is an exciting split end prospect who reminds scouts of Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Vincent Jackson. Of concern, however, is the fact that Evans does not possess elite speed and struggled when defenders matched his physicality.

18. OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan (6-7, 310, 5.04): Possessing an impressive combination of size, strength and toughness, Lewan has earned comparisons to former Michigan standout Jake Long throughout his career with the Wolverines. Lewan was one of the bright spots in an otherwise disappointing 2013 campaign in Ann Arbor. Before drafting him, however, NFL teams will want to investigate Lewan's role -- if any -- in an alleged assault on an Ohio State fan following this year's Big Game.

19. TE Jace Amaro, Texas Tech (6-5, 260, 4.67)*: The NFL is looking for seam threats rather than extra blockers at tight end in today's game and there wasn't a more impressive prospect in the country in 2013 in this role than Amaro, who finished the regular season with 106 catches for 1,352 yards -- the most ever for a tight end in FBS history. Despite Amaro's size, he doesn't provide much as a blocker and was split out wide as a glorified slot receiver throughout most of his collegiate career. In this role he has proven to be a Jimmy Graham-like matchup nightmare for defenders.

20. DE Kony Ealy, Missouri (6-5, 275, 4.77)*: While teammate Michael Sam garnered more hype, scouts are increasingly intrigued by Ealy due to his impressive combination of size and athleticism. A highly versatile defender with experience inside and out for the Tigers, Ealy projects nicely to both the 4-3 and 3-4 alignments and the first-team All-SEC pick is just scratching the surface of his potential.

21. DL Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame (6-5, 303, 4.89)*: Clowney isn't the only highly regarded defensive lineman who struggled under the burden of monstrous expectations in 2013. After dominating as a sophomore, Tuitt began his junior campaign out of shape (after missing spring due to hernia surgery) and struggled with consistency all season. Highly athletic and possessing the frame to star as either a 4-3 defensive tackle or 3-4 defensive end, Tuitt's upside is just too tantalizing to ignore.

22. OLB Ryan Shazier, Ohio State (6-2, 226, 4.58)*: Shazier may be 10-15 pounds lighter than scouts would prefer but his instincts, speed and bone-jarring hits make him a fearful defender that offenses must account for on every snap. Statistics don't always tell the story, but they do with Shazier, whose 143 tackles, including an eye-popping 22.5 tackles for loss, not only led the Big Ten this season, they combine to rank among the best seasons from any Buckeye defender over the past quarter century.

23. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State (5-10, 186, 4.52)*: Beavers coach Mike Riley has made a career out of finding undersized pass-catchers to star in his offense, but Cooks is a different level of athlete than Sammie Stroughter, Markus Wheaton and the Rodgers brothers (James and Jacquizz). Boasting a combination of elusiveness, acceleration and toughness that is earning comparisons to Tavon Austin, the Biletnikoff Award winner shattered school and conference records and has already announced his intentions to enter the draft.

24. DE Trent Murphy, Stanford (6-6, 261, 4.85): Used as a standup outside linebacker as a well as a down defensive lineman for the Cardinal, Murphy is equally impactful in the passing game, running game and on special teams due to his instincts, physicality and awareness. His play and production (62 tackles, 23.5 tackles for loss, 15 sacks) should have earned him the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year award that went to Arizona defensive lineman Will Sutton. Though he has starred in Stanford's 3-4 scheme, Murphy projects best as a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL because he does not possess ideal athleticism.

25. DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota (6-6, 311, 4.95): Blessed with an extraordinary combination of size and athleticism, Hageman could join Michael Brockers and Dontari Poe as recent big defensive tackles whose real rise up draft boards doesn't begin until the Scouting Combine. Hageman has looked unblockable at times, but he struggles with consistency.

26. CB Jason Verrett, TCU (5-10, 182, 4.49): Verrett lacks the size so en vogue in today's NFL, but agility and ball-skills never go out of style for cornerbacks. Verrett led the Big 12 with 22 passes defended and six interceptions in 2012. Through the end of the 2013 regular season he led again in pass deflections (16) while recording two pass thefts. While light, Verrett is scrappy and tenacious, making him an ideal nickel corner with the tackling ability to threaten on an occasional blitz.

27. CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State (6-0, 200, 4.52): In terms of size, agility and speed, no cornerback offers a more intriguing skill-set than the Cowboys' star. Gilbert, a Thorpe Award finalist, led the Big 12 with six interceptions this season and has returned just as many kickoffs for touchdowns during his time in Stillwater.

28. OG Cyril Richardson, Baylor (6-5, 335, 5.27): A dominating drive blocker who projects best at guard but spent the entire 2011 season protecting Robert Griffin III at left tackle, Richardson is massive, powerful and shockingly athletic. Richardson was recognized with the Jim Parker Award as the nation's top blocker and headlines a strong class of interior linemen.

29. OC Travis Swanson, Arkansas (6-4, 318, 5.26): If Richardson is the elite interior lineman of the 2014 senior class, Swanson ranks as a close second. Athletic, powerful and versatile (some view him as a potential guard convert), Swanson will continue former Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema's tradition of churning out quality NFL prospects along the offensive line.

30. OG David Yankey, Stanford (6-5, 314, 5.08)*: Stanford may have met its match against Michigan State in the Rose Bowl, but don't blame Yankey for the loss. Athletic and powerful, the talented left guard is earning similar grades from some clubs as his former teammate, David DeCastro, the No. 24 overall selection of the 2012 draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

31. DE Scott Crichton, Oregon State (6-3, 265, 4.73)*: Crichton will not test as well as Clowney or Ealy, but he has been the more consistent defender over his respective career, racking up an eye-popping 51 tackles for loss and 22.5 sacks over the past three seasons. He has an impressive initial burst, uses his hands well to defeat blocks and plays a tough, tenacious brand of football that I expect will help him out-perform some of the players selected ahead of him in the NFL.

32. OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson (6-2, 235, 4.64): As Bruce Irvin proved as a "surprise" first round pick by the Seattle Seahawks two years ago, the NFL is willing to gamble on pass rushers. In his first full season as a starter Beasley led the ACC with 13 sacks, including a takedown of Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller in the Orange Bowl, among four other tackles for loss. While possessing less than ideal size, Beasley's burst and overall athleticism is intriguing to 4-3 and 3-4 teams.

Just missed the cut:

DT Will Sutton, Arizona State
CB Bradley Roby, Ohio State*
RB Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona*
WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt
DT Timmy Jernigan, Florida State*
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington*
ILB Yawin Smallwood, Connecticut*
WR Allen Robinson, Penn State*
OT La'el Collins, LSU*
OG Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA*
DE/OLB Trevor Reilly, Utah
WR Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State*
DT Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh
OLB Kyle Van Noy, BYU
OL Zach Martin, Notre Dame

Rob Rang (@RobRang) is a senior analyst for NFLDraftScout.com

 

[JohnnyU]

So with what we're being told today I'd feel pretty good saying Watkins is a good NFL WR -- a weak #1 or a strong #2 -- and that he should have some fantasy value. But that he's probably not worth the type of rookie pick he's commanding today. I'd rather save those top couple picks on a guy that looks like he has an elite ceiling, or trade it for someone that's currently producing at that anticipated level.

Yeah this ^^^^^. He's a great trade asset because he is being overvalued right now. When his trade value reaches it's peak teams might be better off cashing in.

I don't understand this logic unless you really don't think he has the goods. I find it very hard not to see what this guy brings to the table. I'm pretty sure, barring off the field issues, he will be an all-pro by his second season. I see absolute stud with this WR. No way in hell I would be selling him right now, no way.

 

[EBF]

Totally agree that it's very rare for two players to line up exactly, but also believe that comparing players to similar players from previous years is a great way to get an initial read on a guy.

Yea, I'm with you on all that. I just think the constant urge to find pro parallels results in some pretty strange comparisons. Crabtree/Watkins is a good example. Talk about two guys who look and play totally different. I've always thought of Crab as a guy with mediocre speed who makes his living by being quicker and more agile than the people trying to stop him. Catching the ball and making people miss in space. That has always sort of been his game in a nutshell. He didn't even run a 40 leading up to the draft and I wouldn't be surprised if he clocked ~4.55 when healthy. Watkins on the other hand is a more linear track guy. Slightly leaner lower body. Much faster. He was a 10.45 guy in the 100m in high school. That's a gear that Crab doesn't have.

Maybe the outcome is the same on the stat sheet, but the way that they they get there isn't very similar. So if the comparison is meant to reflect body type and playing style, that's one that doesn't quite work for me. If it's meant to reflect overall talent level and future impact then it makes more sense and seems more apt. Sometimes it's not clear what someone is aiming for when they make a comparison.

 

[Milkman]

So with what we're being told today I'd feel pretty good saying Watkins is a good NFL WR -- a weak #1 or a strong #2 -- and that he should have some fantasy value. But that he's probably not worth the type of rookie pick he's commanding today. I'd rather save those top couple picks on a guy that looks like he has an elite ceiling, or trade it for someone that's currently producing at that anticipated level.

Yeah this ^^^^^. He's a great trade asset because he is being overvalued right now. When his trade value reaches it's peak teams might be better off cashing in.

I don't understand this logic unless you really don't think he has the goods. I find it very hard not to see what this guy brings to the table. I'm pretty sure, barring off the field issues, he will be an all-pro by his second season. I see absolute stud with this WR. No way in hell I would be selling him right now, no way.

I don't know anybody saying he is in the AJ green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson tier so I'm not sure he's an absolute stud. I'm def not saying he's likely to bust just saying it seems like the buzz is starting to build and he is being over valued right now. All-pro by his second season?

So what's he worth to you then?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

So with what we're being told today I'd feel pretty good saying Watkins is a good NFL WR -- a weak #1 or a strong #2 -- and that he should have some fantasy value. But that he's probably not worth the type of rookie pick he's commanding today. I'd rather save those top couple picks on a guy that looks like he has an elite ceiling, or trade it for someone that's currently producing at that anticipated level.

Yeah this ^^^^^. He's a great trade asset because he is being overvalued right now. When his trade value reaches it's peak teams might be better off cashing in.

I don't understand this logic unless you really don't think he has the goods. I find it very hard not to see what this guy brings to the table. I'm pretty sure, barring off the field issues, he will be an all-pro by his second season. I see absolute stud with this WR. No way in hell I would be selling him right now, no way.

I can tell you right now, Watkins wont fit Robs model, he will be a AJ green/keenan allen type, (maybe a little faster(hell maybe alot faster))

 

[Bob Magaw]

In my case, Crabtree came up because they are both 6'1". Also why I mentioned Roddy White, Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt (all 6'0"). Just pointing out that it is possible to not be 6'4" and a WR1. Wasn't implying they have identical games, obviously they don't. I do think it bodes well Watkins is faster than all of them. Some have compared Torrey Smith (oops, did it again! ), who is the same size, but I think Watkins has more power and tackle breaking ability, and might be more creative in the open field. Also not sure Smith's hands are as good (not that they are bad, just think Watkins might be better).

Wallace also came up (per EBF, though qualified as not an exact comp, obviously), and Wallace and Torry Smith are both formidable deep threats.

I don't see comp players being completely dispensed with. As always, there are better and worse ones, sometimes it helps to express them by pointing out how they have comparable respective strengths and weaknesses to perhaps several predecessors/skill set constellation archetypes, and it is important to be careful in pointing out where the analogies appear to be more on the mark, or less and where and how they break down. Same as it ever was.

 

[EBF]

In my case, Crabtree came up because they are both 6'1". Also why I mentioned Roddy White, Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt (all 6'0"). Just pointing out that it is possible to not be 6'4" and a WR1. Wasn't implying they have identical games, obviously they don't. I do think it bodes well Watkins is faster than all of them. Some have compared Torrey Smith (oops, did it again! ), who is the same size, but I think Watkins has more power and tackle breaking ability, and might be more creative in the open field. Also not sure Smith's hands are as good (not that they are bad, just think Watkins might be better).

Wallace also came up (per EBF, though qualified as not an exact comp, obviously), and Wallace and Torry Smith are both formidable deep threats.

I don't see comp players being completely dispensed with. As always, there are better and worse ones, sometimes it helps to express them by pointing out how they have comparable respective strengths and weaknesses to perhaps several predecessors/skill set constellation archetypes, and it is important to be careful in pointing out where the analogies appear to be more on the mark, or less and where and how they break down. Same as it ever was.

With you on all that as well.

As someone who spends quite a bit of time watching some of these players and trying to develop a nuanced understanding of what they do, I guess it's just a mild pet peeve when someone tosses out a horrible comparison that's totally off the mark. That said, I've been guilty of it plenty of times myself and I totally understand why people try to place prospects in the context of historical predecessors. I'm actually a guy who gets a little worried when I can't find a historical equivalent (like with Tavon Austin this past year). I feel a lot more comfortable with a prospect who pretty neatly aligns with established archetypes.

 

[JohnnyU]

So with what we're being told today I'd feel pretty good saying Watkins is a good NFL WR -- a weak #1 or a strong #2 -- and that he should have some fantasy value. But that he's probably not worth the type of rookie pick he's commanding today. I'd rather save those top couple picks on a guy that looks like he has an elite ceiling, or trade it for someone that's currently producing at that anticipated level.

Yeah this ^^^^^. He's a great trade asset because he is being overvalued right now. When his trade value reaches it's peak teams might be better off cashing in.

I don't understand this logic unless you really don't think he has the goods. I find it very hard not to see what this guy brings to the table. I'm pretty sure, barring off the field issues, he will be an all-pro by his second season. I see absolute stud with this WR. No way in hell I would be selling him right now, no way.

I don't know anybody saying he is in the AJ green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson tier so I'm not sure he's an absolute stud. I'm def not saying he's likely to bust just saying it seems like the buzz is starting to build and he is being over valued right now. All-pro by his second season?

So what's he worth to you then?

Overvalued isn't always a bad thing. People use that term very loosely. Perhaps he's worth the hype, lol.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

So with what we're being told today I'd feel pretty good saying Watkins is a good NFL WR -- a weak #1 or a strong #2 -- and that he should have some fantasy value. But that he's probably not worth the type of rookie pick he's commanding today. I'd rather save those top couple picks on a guy that looks like he has an elite ceiling, or trade it for someone that's currently producing at that anticipated level.

Yeah this ^^^^^. He's a great trade asset because he is being overvalued right now. When his trade value reaches it's peak teams might be better off cashing in.

I don't understand this logic unless you really don't think he has the goods. I find it very hard not to see what this guy brings to the table. I'm pretty sure, barring off the field issues, he will be an all-pro by his second season. I see absolute stud with this WR. No way in hell I would be selling him right now, no way.

Passing on a guy like Sammy Watkins for a guy who has an "elite ceiling" is just silly imo. For whatever reason people seem to have an infatuation with upside, to the extent that it can really hurt your fantasy team. If you're gunning for Calvin Johnson with all your picks you're going to have a real bad time and end up real disappointed very quickly. Roddy White put up 6 consecutive top 10 WR seasons, and in PPR scoring that includes three top 5 finishes and one #1 overall finish; you're crazy to pass up on a player who has an 80-90% chance of meeting and perhaps surpassing those numbers for a prospect who has a 10-20% chance of being the next Josh Gordon.

So Sammy Watkins is too small to be the next Calvin/Josh Gordon, big woop. If he's the next Roddy White you've just found someone who you can plug into one of your WR spots for the next several years and not have to worry about at all.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Btw I actually think Roddy White is a pretty good comparison for Sammy Watkins. Very similarly sized, both have great WR skills, and both are kind of stiff runners that lack special lateral agility/juking ability. I think it's a fair assumption too that Watkins has better speed than White, so I'd say he could be an even better WR than White.

 

[matttyl]

Does anyone have a list of guys, that regardless of where they end up, will be 1st round dynasty rookie picks? Watkins, Lee, Mason......?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Does anyone have a list of guys, that regardless of where they end up, will be 1st round dynasty rookie picks? Watkins, Lee, Mason......?

careful with this you'll end up with Jonathan Dwyer

 

[ShaHBucks]

In my case, Crabtree came up because they are both 6'1". Also why I mentioned Roddy White, Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt (all 6'0"). Just pointing out that it is possible to not be 6'4" and a WR1. Wasn't implying they have identical games, obviously they don't. I do think it bodes well Watkins is faster than all of them. Some have compared Torrey Smith (oops, did it again! ), who is the same size, but I think Watkins has more power and tackle breaking ability, and might be more creative in the open field. Also not sure Smith's hands are as good (not that they are bad, just think Watkins might be better).

Wallace also came up (per EBF, though qualified as not an exact comp, obviously), and Wallace and Torry Smith are both formidable deep threats.

I don't see comp players being completely dispensed with. As always, there are better and worse ones, sometimes it helps to express them by pointing out how they have comparable respective strengths and weaknesses to perhaps several predecessors/skill set constellation archetypes, and it is important to be careful in pointing out where the analogies appear to be more on the mark, or less and where and how they break down. Same as it ever was.

Do you know how strong Torrey Smith is for a WR?

 

[Bob Magaw]

In my case, Crabtree came up because they are both 6'1". Also why I mentioned Roddy White, Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt (all 6'0"). Just pointing out that it is possible to not be 6'4" and a WR1. Wasn't implying they have identical games, obviously they don't. I do think it bodes well Watkins is faster than all of them. Some have compared Torrey Smith (oops, did it again! ), who is the same size, but I think Watkins has more power and tackle breaking ability, and might be more creative in the open field. Also not sure Smith's hands are as good (not that they are bad, just think Watkins might be better).

Wallace also came up (per EBF, though qualified as not an exact comp, obviously), and Wallace and Torry Smith are both formidable deep threats.

I don't see comp players being completely dispensed with. As always, there are better and worse ones, sometimes it helps to express them by pointing out how they have comparable respective strengths and weaknesses to perhaps several predecessors/skill set constellation archetypes, and it is important to be careful in pointing out where the analogies appear to be more on the mark, or less and where and how they break down. Same as it ever was.

With you on all that as well.

As someone who spends quite a bit of time watching some of these players and trying to develop a nuanced understanding of what they do, I guess it's just a mild pet peeve when someone tosses out a horrible comparison that's totally off the mark. That said, I've been guilty of it plenty of times myself and I totally understand why people try to place prospects in the context of historical predecessors. I'm actually a guy who gets a little worried when I can't find a historical equivalent (like with Tavon Austin this past year). I feel a lot more comfortable with a prospect who pretty neatly aligns with established archetypes.

I've said this before, but a large part of the beauty of the SP to me is, in theory, the more people in here who have deep a repertoire of historical observations and can insightfully bring them to bear in the invocation of comps (at its best, the SP in this sense holds out the hope and promise of being literally a thousand brained/eyed monster, powerful collaborative learning or knowledge engine and intelligence augmentation/amplification agent that can help make nearly everybody smarter and help elevate our collective games), the better comps we will be able to hammer out through consensus.

 

[Bob Magaw]

In my case, Crabtree came up because they are both 6'1". Also why I mentioned Roddy White, Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt (all 6'0"). Just pointing out that it is possible to not be 6'4" and a WR1. Wasn't implying they have identical games, obviously they don't. I do think it bodes well Watkins is faster than all of them. Some have compared Torrey Smith (oops, did it again! ), who is the same size, but I think Watkins has more power and tackle breaking ability, and might be more creative in the open field. Also not sure Smith's hands are as good (not that they are bad, just think Watkins might be better).

Wallace also came up (per EBF, though qualified as not an exact comp, obviously), and Wallace and Torry Smith are both formidable deep threats.

I don't see comp players being completely dispensed with. As always, there are better and worse ones, sometimes it helps to express them by pointing out how they have comparable respective strengths and weaknesses to perhaps several predecessors/skill set constellation archetypes, and it is important to be careful in pointing out where the analogies appear to be more on the mark, or less and where and how they break down. Same as it ever was.

Do you know how strong Torrey Smith is for a WR?

:Ed McMahon voice: How strong is he?

I wasn't implying he is weak, that just speaks to my thinking Watkins is strong for his size. But I haven't seen every Smith game, I'm more used to seeing him get behind secondaries on deep passes, than taking short/intermediate passes and breaking lots of tackles. But very possible I'm selling Smith short in that department*. I'd still contend Watkins has an impressive combination of speed and strength.

* I've also used Roddy White (6'0" 215 lbs.) to point out WRs don't have to be 6'4" to be WR1s, and didn't sell his power short, specifically pointing out he was stronger than Watkins (White a former prep state wrestling champ)... possibly upthread, in the related 2014 Draft thread, or both.

 

[ShaHBucks]

In my case, Crabtree came up because they are both 6'1". Also why I mentioned Roddy White, Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt (all 6'0"). Just pointing out that it is possible to not be 6'4" and a WR1. Wasn't implying they have identical games, obviously they don't. I do think it bodes well Watkins is faster than all of them. Some have compared Torrey Smith (oops, did it again! ), who is the same size, but I think Watkins has more power and tackle breaking ability, and might be more creative in the open field. Also not sure Smith's hands are as good (not that they are bad, just think Watkins might be better).

Wallace also came up (per EBF, though qualified as not an exact comp, obviously), and Wallace and Torry Smith are both formidable deep threats.

I don't see comp players being completely dispensed with. As always, there are better and worse ones, sometimes it helps to express them by pointing out how they have comparable respective strengths and weaknesses to perhaps several predecessors/skill set constellation archetypes, and it is important to be careful in pointing out where the analogies appear to be more on the mark, or less and where and how they break down. Same as it ever was.

Do you know how strong Torrey Smith is for a WR?

:Ed McMahon voice: How strong is he?

I wasn't implying he is weak, that just speaks to my thinking Watkins is strong for his size. But I haven't seen every Smith game, I'm more used to seeing him get behind secondaries on deep passes, than taking short/intermediate passes and breaking lots of tackles. But very possible I'm selling Smith short in that department*. I'd still contend Watkins has an impressive combination of speed and strength.

* I've also used Roddy White (6'0" 215 lbs.) to point out WRs don't have to be 6'4" to be WR1s, and didn't sell his power short, specifically pointing out he was stronger than Watkins (White a former prep state wrestling champ)... possibly upthread, in the related 2014 Draft thread, or both.

I like to think Smith isn't used properly, but that's a whole topic on its own... Roddy White and Torrey Smith had nearly identical measurements, so you're not really off if that's what you think of Watkins. It just came off as subjective to me knowing the numbers off hand.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I may have mistook lack of use (in short/intermediate game) with inability.

Looked it up, didn't realize what a sick athlete Torrey Smith is, thanks for pointing that out, ShaHBucks.

Have to see what Watkins does, but at the same listed 6'1" 205 lbs., Smith had a 42" VJ (!!) and 19 BP reps, outstanding for a WR, some linemen and LBs don't lift that much, Watkins will be hard pressed to come close to that. Of course, being a strong open field runner also has to do with innate traits like physicality and toughness that you can't be coached up on, and I think Watkins has them. I knew Smith was extremely fast, but his overall athleticism was a revelation. I'll add that knowledge to my repertoire.

 

[EBF]

They are pretty close in a lot of ways. I think Watkins is a little more of a "gamer" although I realize that's a meaningless and subjective term. If you want concrete figures, he had the better overall college career (albeit with a better QB and team). I feel like Watkins is a little less likely to vanish in crunch time, whereas Torrey Smith strikes me as kind of a fraudulent WR1 who'd really be better served as a dynamic WR2 opposite a guy with better possession game.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Yeah just from watching them both in college, I think Watkins is a more natural pass catcher. Just makes it look easy compared to Smith who always seemed like he could be just another Terp physical specimin.

 

[Soulfly3]

They are pretty close in a lot of ways. I think Watkins is a little more of a "gamer" although I realize that's a meaningless and subjective term. If you want concrete figures, he had the better overall college career (albeit with a better QB and team). I feel like Watkins is a little less likely to vanish in crunch time, whereas Torrey Smith strikes me as kind of a fraudulent WR1 who'd really be better served as a dynamic WR2 opposite a guy with better possession game.

this is why Watkins should go to the Browns at 1.04 and play opposite Gordon.

That could be the most lethal 1-2 in the league in 2-3yrs.

 

[Xue]

I may have mistook lack of use (in short/intermediate game) with inability.

Looked it up, didn't realize what a sick athlete Torrey Smith is, thanks for pointing that out, ShaHBucks.

Have to see what Watkins does, but at the same listed 6'1" 205 lbs., Smith had a 42" VJ (!!) and 19 BP reps, outstanding for a WR, some linemen and LBs don't lift that much, Watkins will be hard pressed to come close to that. Of course, being a strong open field runner also has to do with innate traits like physicality and toughness that you can't be coached up on, and I think Watkins has them. I knew Smith was extremely fast, but his overall athleticism was a revelation. I'll add that knowledge to my repertoire.

Smith has a great vertical, but he isn't a great jumpball guy.

 

[slackjawedyokel]

I know it's as early as it gets, but I'm having trouble organizing the rookie values for 2014 compared existing rosters. For example, I have the 1.1 in a dyno as well as a 1.10, 1.12, and 1.16. A guy in the league has the 3 and 4 picks. Are his 2 picks much more valuable than my 1.1? Maybe offer Lacy for both of his picks? Or is it way lopsided? That would result in some combo of Watkins, Hyde, and maybe Mason. Things will shake up, but is it better to move for picks now with the unknown or wait it out? Having 3 of the top 4 picks would be stellar, but what value is going to be expected?

 

[alger]

I know it's as early as it gets, but I'm having trouble organizing the rookie values for 2014 compared existing rosters. For example, I have the 1.1 in a dyno as well as a 1.10, 1.12, and 1.16. A guy in the league has the 3 and 4 picks. Are his 2 picks much more valuable than my 1.1? Maybe offer Lacy for both of his picks? Or is it way lopsided? That would result in some combo of Watkins, Hyde, and maybe Mason. Things will shake up, but is it better to move for picks now with the unknown or wait it out? Having 3 of the top 4 picks would be stellar, but what value is going to be expected?

I'd say hang onto Lacy and the #1. Of course there is value in having multiple top picks, i.e. more chances to hit big. But those players are all potential right now until they play an NFL game. Whereas Lacy has done it and well. Also the value of the #1 can only increase with time. You'll have a better feel after the combine and draft for what the top5 may look like.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I'd take the 3 and 4 over the 1 in a heartbeat

 

[Xue]

Troy Niklas declares: https://twitter.com/hansenNDInsider/status/421502162490118145?screen_name=hansenNDInsider

 

[BoltzNBrew]

I know it's as early as it gets, but I'm having trouble organizing the rookie values for 2014 compared existing rosters. For example, I have the 1.1 in a dyno as well as a 1.10, 1.12, and 1.16. A guy in the league has the 3 and 4 picks. Are his 2 picks much more valuable than my 1.1? Maybe offer Lacy for both of his picks? Or is it way lopsided? That would result in some combo of Watkins, Hyde, and maybe Mason. Things will shake up, but is it better to move for picks now with the unknown or wait it out? Having 3 of the top 4 picks would be stellar, but what value is going to be expected?

I'd say hang onto Lacy and the #1. Of course there is value in having multiple top picks, i.e. more chances to hit big. But those players are all potential right now until they play an NFL game. Whereas Lacy has done it and well. Also the value of the #1 can only increase with time. You'll have a better feel after the combine and draft for what the top5 may look like.

I think I would stay put as well and take who you feel is best at 1.1 and see who falls in your other 3 picks. In my 12 team ppr league just about everyone needs RB help so despite this RB class being supposedly weak I think they will go higher than they normally would allowing WR to fall. Since this WR class is deep you could load up on WR at the bottom end and be happy with what you get. I guess it all just comes down to what teams 2-9 really need and if they draft based on need or BPA.

A quick mock of my league based on biggest need:

Seastrunk

Watkins

Bridgewater

Evans

Carey

Ebron

Lee

Benjamin

Mason

Hyde

Amaro

Sankey

 

[Soulfly3]

Seastrunk is your highest rated RB?

woah

 

[MAC_32]

I know it's as early as it gets, but I'm having trouble organizing the rookie values for 2014 compared existing rosters.

Unless Sammy goes to an awful situation or a RB goes to a great situation the 1.1 is a lot more valuable than the 1.2. I don't think there's much difference between 1.2 and about 1.9 then again from about 1.9 to the mid 2nd. Then things get hazy. It's tough to draw a line in the sand at 1.9, it could swing a couple of picks either way, but somewhere in that range. I have picks 1, 3, 8, 9, and 12. If I can find a buyer for 3 I'll move down. If I can move 12 for a future 1 I probably will. I'm hanging onto 1, 8, and 9 until at least after the NFL draft unless blown away.

 

[MAC_32]

Seastrunk is your highest rated RB?

woah

I think he has the most upside, but he's a lot riskier than Hyde and Mason.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

Seastrunk is your highest rated RB?

woah

No idea who at this point really, its way too early and its just a quick mock of my league. Follow the conversation and focus on the position more than the player.

 

[Concept Coop]

Seastrunk is your highest rated RB?

woah

I think he has the most upside, but he's a lot riskier than Hyde and Mason.

I agree. After doing a 180 on Hyde, I now think he's the safest back in the draft. Could be a slightly smoother Eddie Lacy type.