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[Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects (2 Viewers)

MAC_32 said:
I like Abdullah, and I don't like to over emphasize one game, but given what he's working with he really needed to perform better against Sparty for me to feel good about him translating to the pros.

Health withstanding, he won't be higher than 4th on my RB board pre draft.
I'm curious what you mean by that? If you're talking about quality of team, Nebraska has been incredibly hit or miss under Pelini, which is why I'm ecstatic to see him go. They can look dominant on offense against teams they don't often play (Miami, OOC games in general), but against the big in conference teams like Wisconsin, Michigan State, or Ohio State Pelini's lack of ability to adjust strategies was glaringly obvious. Michigan State knew that Abdullah was our only big piece on offense, they game planned to shut him down and Tommy Armstrong doesn't have the passing chops to make them pay for it with the weather as it was that night. He's inconsistent on a good day, much less in the cold, rain and wind. On top of Armstrong's ####ty passing that night, the offensive line was getting mauled all game. So while, yes, I agree that Abdullah's performance against Michigan State that night was poor, I don't put that on him. The team failed to execute. Not even Adrian Peterson can produce when he's getting hit in the backfield or at the line every play.

Ultimately, here's where I land on Ameer vs. Michigan State:

Ameer Abdullah vs Michigan State 2012 - 22 carries 110 yards and 1 rec 2 yds 1 TD

vs Michigan State 2013 - 22 carries 123 yards, 1 rec 12 yds 1 TD

vs Michigan State 2014 - 24 carries 45 yards 2 TDs, 2 rec 22 yds

I consider the 2014 game to be an aberration versus the longer trend as a result of poor game planning and execution by the team, not Abdullah.
I didn't see the 2012 game but I thought the 2013 game was more of a letdown after embarrassing Michigan by Michigan State than it was Abdullah dominating. Abdullah was getting Michigan State's A game this year as they hadn't played a meaningful game in four weeks. Wanted to see Abdullah produce despite that and deficiencies around him. He didn't. He crumbled at the line throughout the night. He had a shot at a mulligan vs Wisconsin who is pretty good vs the run themselves, but didn't step up. I'm not being as quick to criticize that game because of what happened when Wisconsin had the ball though. Happy to see they drew USC in the bowl game as they have some stout players on the line, curious how he does vs them when the opportunity presents itself.Power isn't his game, but if he is going to be a lead back in the nfl he needs to have at least some. That's the difference between him, Gordon, and Coleman IMHO. Due to his size he is going to be typecast as a scat back until he proves otherwise. A bad situation for Coleman and a great situation for Abdullah could cause me to flip flop come May, but prior? Nope.
I guess I just don't see the same things. Here's a video of all of his carries in this year's Michigan State game. On all but maybe 3-4 carries, he's hit behind or at the line of scrimmage by one or multiple defenders and surprise, he gets good yardage on the plays where he's not hit immediately. Nebraska's offensive line featured multiple players in their own backfield being driven back on most running plays. You show me a RB that can make something out of those plays and I'll show you a future Hall of Famer.

Power isn't his key strength, but I disagree wholeheartedly that it isn't a part of his game. I just don't know how you can extensively watch Abdullah play and determine that he doesn't have "at least some" power.
Gordon against Ohio immediately comes to mind because it just happened and it's fresh in my mind. They were in the back field all night and Gordon routinely made a couple-few yards out of those carries getting what he could plus some then falling forward. In the pros the difference between a zero yard gain or less and two or three yards when there is no blocking is the difference between a starter and a change of pace back.
 
This is just a complete no from me.
Watching his best day vs Rutgers. He had 5 runs of completely huge holes. Great blocking + poor angles from the defense led to about 150 of his 225 yards that day. He made 1 person miss, which he had 5 yards of area to do it and I think most top backs could do, and broke one diving arm tackle.
I think you're guilty of taking an extreme stance in the opposite direction by selling Abdullah short. For one thing, although he may have put up his best numbers, I don't think v. Rutgers represents Abdullah's best performance as he didn't do a whole lot for himself. You're right that he had a lot of open lanes. Nevertheless, let's give credit where due. I personally wouldn't call this move pedestrian, nor would I blame defenders entirely for their bad angles. You'll notice a defense take poor pursuit against faster, more sudden running backs. Watch Gurley v. Clemson to see the same thing.

If you want to see a more impressive performance from Abdullah, watch his game v. Miami.

 
I try pretty hard not to form strong opinions about guys until after the combine, but I'll be shocked if I like Ajayi when all is said and done. If forced to pick today there are at least 5 or 6 RBs I'd have ahead of him.
This really stuck out when I read it. Why would this be the case? I find I prefer to use their college production/how they look in college over the Underwear Olympics. I DO use the combine as a tie-breaker at times but would rather get excited by Amari Cooper (on production) than Darius Heyward-Bey (by how he is at the combine).

 
I try pretty hard not to form strong opinions about guys until after the combine, but I'll be shocked if I like Ajayi when all is said and done. If forced to pick today there are at least 5 or 6 RBs I'd have ahead of him.
This really stuck out when I read it. Why would this be the case? I find I prefer to use their college production/how they look in college over the Underwear Olympics. I DO use the combine as a tie-breaker at times but would rather get excited by Amari Cooper (on production) than Darius Heyward-Bey (by how he is at the combine).
I agree. I try to to come up with the majority of my feel for guys prior to the combine. The combine just helps solidify some things. There are always a few guys who I really want to see at the combine, though. Those are the guys that I find it more difficult to asses their athletic ability just in games. M. Evens last year for example. He really moved up for my when seeing him at the combine. Funchess is a guy this year because we don't really know if he's going to be a WR or TE.
 
This is just a complete no from me.

Watching his best day vs Rutgers. He had 5 runs of completely huge holes. Great blocking + poor angles from the defense led to about 150 of his 225 yards that day. He made 1 person miss, which he had 5 yards of area to do it and I think most top backs could do, and broke one diving arm tackle.
I think you're guilty of taking an extreme stance in the opposite direction by selling Abdullah short. For one thing, although he may have put up his best numbers, I don't think v. Rutgers represents Abdullah's best performance as he didn't do a whole lot for himself. You're right that he had a lot of open lanes. Nevertheless, let's give credit where due. I personally wouldn't call this move pedestrian, nor would I blame defenders entirely for their bad angles. You'll notice a defense take poor pursuit against faster, more sudden running backs. Watch Gurley v. Clemson to see the same thing.

If you want to see a more impressive performance from Abdullah, watch his game v. Miami.
I'm being objective, not extreme. Do you think samaje perine was amazing vs Kansas? I think the Kansas defense was beyond horrible.

Most top rbs should make a single defender miss with a lot of room to work with. Do you disagree? I didn't use the word pedestrian.

Abdullah is my 7th rb as of right now but tier 2 is very close together. I think abdullah will be a better NFL rb than FF rb, just like I think he is a better college rb than pro.

 
I try pretty hard not to form strong opinions about guys until after the combine, but I'll be shocked if I like Ajayi when all is said and done. If forced to pick today there are at least 5 or 6 RBs I'd have ahead of him.
This really stuck out when I read it. Why would this be the case? I find I prefer to use their college production/how they look in college over the Underwear Olympics. I DO use the combine as a tie-breaker at times but would rather get excited by Amari Cooper (on production) than Darius Heyward-Bey (by how he is at the combine).
Different strokes.

 
I try pretty hard not to form strong opinions about guys until after the combine, but I'll be shocked if I like Ajayi when all is said and done. If forced to pick today there are at least 5 or 6 RBs I'd have ahead of him.
This really stuck out when I read it. Why would this be the case? I find I prefer to use their college production/how they look in college over the Underwear Olympics. I DO use the combine as a tie-breaker at times but would rather get excited by Amari Cooper (on production) than Darius Heyward-Bey (by how he is at the combine).
Different strokes.
Uh huh. Personally, I think using college production as a basis is just as flawed as the combine. Start with what the player actually does on the field then tie in what they've actually been able to produce. The combine should more or less confirm what you thought about them when watching them play. If there's a disconnect then re-evaluate.

I think I get 10x more out of what I read about Senior Bowl practice reports than I do anything at the underwear olympics and pro days.

 
I try pretty hard not to form strong opinions about guys until after the combine, but I'll be shocked if I like Ajayi when all is said and done. If forced to pick today there are at least 5 or 6 RBs I'd have ahead of him.
This really stuck out when I read it. Why would this be the case? I find I prefer to use their college production/how they look in college over the Underwear Olympics. I DO use the combine as a tie-breaker at times but would rather get excited by Amari Cooper (on production) than Darius Heyward-Bey (by how he is at the combine).
I agree. I try to to come up with the majority of my feel for guys prior to the combine. The combine just helps solidify some things. There are always a few guys who I really want to see at the combine, though. Those are the guys that I find it more difficult to asses their athletic ability just in games. M. Evens last year for example. He really moved up for my when seeing him at the combine. Funchess is a guy this year because we don't really know if he's going to be a WR or TE.
Agreed, for me, its a combination of college production and take into consideration the level of competition that came along with that production + the combine + NFL Draft.The eye test as I watch them play against top competition says it all to me so it carries a little more weight. For instance, BIG GAMES, whether it's a Bowl game, instate rival or defensive players who are highly praised by NFL scouts.

Cooper comes to mind and so does White but Cooper did it all and against great players, the same with White.

 
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I try pretty hard not to form strong opinions about guys until after the combine, but I'll be shocked if I like Ajayi when all is said and done. If forced to pick today there are at least 5 or 6 RBs I'd have ahead of him.
This really stuck out when I read it. Why would this be the case? I find I prefer to use their college production/how they look in college over the Underwear Olympics. I DO use the combine as a tie-breaker at times but would rather get excited by Amari Cooper (on production) than Darius Heyward-Bey (by how he is at the combine).
I agree. I try to to come up with the majority of my feel for guys prior to the combine. The combine just helps solidify some things. There are always a few guys who I really want to see at the combine, though. Those are the guys that I find it more difficult to asses their athletic ability just in games. M. Evens last year for example. He really moved up for my when seeing him at the combine. Funchess is a guy this year because we don't really know if he's going to be a WR or TE.
Even the pre combine interviews can help make a decision. Back when Meachem declared, he blurted out 'I'm cashing in', when they asked him why he declared early. That was a giant red flag for me and I crossed him right off my board. I ended up taking Greg Olsen instead.

 
I like Gurley and Gordon as much as the next guy (maybe), but just some food for thought - here's the only RBs taken in the first round in the past five NFL drafts:

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

C.J. Spiller

Ryan Mathews

Jahvid Best

 
I like Gurley and Gordon as much as the next guy (maybe), but just some food for thought - here's the only RBs taken in the first round in the past five NFL drafts:

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

C.J. Spiller

Ryan Mathews

Jahvid Best
In the two drafts before Andrew Luck, here are the qb's taken in the 1st round

Cam

Locker

Gabbert

Ponder

Bradford

Tebow

long story short, what's one thing got to do with another?

 
I like Gurley and Gordon as much as the next guy (maybe), but just some food for thought - here's the only RBs taken in the first round in the past five NFL drafts:

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

C.J. Spiller

Ryan Mathews

Jahvid Best
In the two drafts before Andrew Luck, here are the qb's taken in the 1st round

Cam

Locker

Gabbert

Ponder

Bradford

Tebow

long story short, what's one thing got to do with another?
Luck was widely viewed as one of the best QB prospects ever to come out. So it's not a surprise that he has done well, in spite of those other guys who were mostly all viewed as huge reaches at the time they were drafted.

My point is that the NFL chews up and spits out RBs quite regularly. Yes, Gurley and Gordon are both highly touted. But Trent Richardson was even more highly touted. RBs are also more susceptible to injuries, more easily replaced and play a position where there's only one starter per team (as opposed to WRs or even TEs in some case).

 
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Faust posted the Rotoworld comments that linked to this article, but here is the link directly to this one from MSJ's Bob McGinn:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/an-early-look-at-the-nfl-draft-b99403379z1-284999721.html

McGinn is usually pretty in tune with what NFL teams think, so I love reading his stuff.

What caught me on this one is his comment about Yeldon being a "definite" first round guy:

Alabama junior T.J. Yeldon (6-2, 220) is regarded as another definite first-round choice.

"Different type than (Eddie) Lacy but he could be (better)," one scout said. "He runs hard like Eddie. He has more speed than Eddie."
You don't see a whole lot of love for Yeldon, but McGinn's contacts have Yeldon right after Gordon and Gurley. He puts Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, Ajayi and Matt Jones in the 25-60 pick range. He doesn't give a pick projection for Abdullah, but talks about him after all these guys.

 
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tdmills said:
cloppbeast said:
This is just a complete no from me.

Watching his best day vs Rutgers. He had 5 runs of completely huge holes. Great blocking + poor angles from the defense led to about 150 of his 225 yards that day. He made 1 person miss, which he had 5 yards of area to do it and I think most top backs could do, and broke one diving arm tackle.
I think you're guilty of taking an extreme stance in the opposite direction by selling Abdullah short. For one thing, although he may have put up his best numbers, I don't think v. Rutgers represents Abdullah's best performance as he didn't do a whole lot for himself. You're right that he had a lot of open lanes. Nevertheless, let's give credit where due. I personally wouldn't call this move pedestrian, nor would I blame defenders entirely for their bad angles. You'll notice a defense take poor pursuit against faster, more sudden running backs. Watch Gurley v. Clemson to see the same thing.

If you want to see a more impressive performance from Abdullah, watch his game v. Miami.
Most top rbs should make a single defender miss with a lot of room to work with. Do you disagree? I didn't use the word pedestrian.

Abdullah is my 7th rb as of right now but tier 2 is very close together. I think abdullah will be a better NFL rb than FF rb, just like I think he is a better college rb than pro.
I agree that most top quick NFL running backs probably make that defender miss, maybe even completely whiff. Most solid rushers would earn some extra yards in the same situation, but Abdullah forced a complete whiff.

 
I like Gurley and Gordon as much as the next guy (maybe), but just some food for thought - here's the only RBs taken in the first round in the past five NFL drafts:

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

C.J. Spiller

Ryan Mathews

Jahvid Best
In the two drafts before Andrew Luck, here are the qb's taken in the 1st round

Cam

Locker

Gabbert

Ponder

Bradford

Tebow
Luck was widely viewed as one of the best QB prospects ever to come out. So it's not a surprise that he has done well, in spite of those other guys who were mostly all viewed as huge reaches at the time they were drafted.

My point is that the NFL chews up and spits out RBs quite regularly. Yes, Gurley and Gordon are both highly touted. But Trent Richardson was even more highly touted. RBs are also more susceptible to injuries, more easily replaced and play a position where there's only one starter per team (as opposed to WRs or even TEs in some case).
Doesn't that make the next Adrian Peterson type so much more valuable in FF?

 
I like Gurley and Gordon as much as the next guy (maybe), but just some food for thought - here's the only RBs taken in the first round in the past five NFL drafts:

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

C.J. Spiller

Ryan Mathews

Jahvid Best
In the two drafts before Andrew Luck, here are the qb's taken in the 1st round

Cam

Locker

Gabbert

Ponder

Bradford

Tebow
Luck was widely viewed as one of the best QB prospects ever to come out. So it's not a surprise that he has done well, in spite of those other guys who were mostly all viewed as huge reaches at the time they were drafted.

My point is that the NFL chews up and spits out RBs quite regularly. Yes, Gurley and Gordon are both highly touted. But Trent Richardson was even more highly touted. RBs are also more susceptible to injuries, more easily replaced and play a position where there's only one starter per team (as opposed to WRs or even TEs in some case).
Doesn't that make the next Adrian Peterson type so much more valuable in FF?
Yes, if you actually hit on him. The odds just seem to be lower that you will.

 
Rotoworld:

Oklahoma State has dismissed junior WR/RB Tyreek Hill following his Thursday night arrest for domestic abuse charges.
Hill has also been dismissed from the track team. The JUCO transfer looked very promising this season, but that all comes to an end very quickly. Expect Hill to enter the 2015 NFL Draft after just one season at the FBS level. Obviously he possesses talent, but Hill could easily go undrafted after this most recent event.
 
Rotoworld:

Oklahoma State has dismissed junior WR/RB Tyreek Hill following his Thursday night arrest for domestic abuse charges.
Hill has also been dismissed from the track team. The JUCO transfer looked very promising this season, but that all comes to an end very quickly. Expect Hill to enter the 2015 NFL Draft after just one season at the FBS level. Obviously he possesses talent, but Hill could easily go undrafted after this most recent event.
:-0

What did he do?

He won't go undrafted after he runs a 4.2 at the combine.

 
Rotoworld:

Oklahoma State has dismissed junior WR/RB Tyreek Hill following his Thursday night arrest for domestic abuse charges.
Hill has also been dismissed from the track team. The JUCO transfer looked very promising this season, but that all comes to an end very quickly. Expect Hill to enter the 2015 NFL Draft after just one season at the FBS level. Obviously he possesses talent, but Hill could easily go undrafted after this most recent event.
:-0

What did he do?

He won't go undrafted after he runs a 4.2 at the combine.
Stillwater, Okla., police arrested Hill late Thursday night with probable cause for domestic abuse by strangulation, a felony.

OSU released a statement on the matter:

"Oklahoma State University does not tolerate domestic abuse or violence. Based on the evidence and the serious allegations that have been made, Head Football Coach Mike Gundy has announced that Tyreek Hill has been dismissed from the OSU football team. He also has been dismissed from the track team. The allegations are under investigation by Stillwater Police and by the OSU Office of Student Conduct. Those processes will proceed independently."

A police release said Hill and an alleged female victim described as his girlfriend were involved in an argument that escalated into a physical altercation.

Police interviewed the alleged victim at the Stillwater Medical Center Emergency Room. She told police the incident occurred at Hill's residence. According to the release, she said Hill "struck her in the face and stomach and choked her during the assault."

 
Yes, if you actually hit on him. The odds just seem to be lower that you will.
Such an important point to remember. I know this is the 2015 thread, but I always think about the devy process as a series of hurdles.

good college player ---> high draft pick ---> productive NFL player

I think there's a tendency to assume that players who reach step two will also reach step three. But how many really do? Just look at the class a couple years ago with Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Justin Blackmon, Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck, and Michael Floyd as the top few picks. How many of those guys are reliable weekly performers right now? Just Luck. One or two of the others will probably have some good seasons in the future, but as of right now they haven't become what their owners envisioned when they spent top 5-6 rookie picks on them.

And that's pretty typical. Last year's insane WR class is spoiling us, but when you look at the percentage of top prospects who go on to become reliable yearly elite NFL players, it's only a fraction of that group. Doesn't mean you shouldn't be excited about Cooper, Gordon, Parker, or Gurley, but if you're penciling them into your lineup for the next 7 years then you're likely to be disappointed. Look at the RBs drafted in the first in the past 10 years:

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

CJ Spiller

Ryan Mathews

Jahvid Best

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

Beanie Wells

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Felix Jones

Rashard Mendenhall

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

Marshawn Lynch

Reggie Bush

Laurence Maroney

DeAngelo Williams

Ronnie Brown

Cedric Benson

Cadillac Williams

Many of these guys had some success, but only a small fraction have had truly great careers.

 
Rotoworld:

Oklahoma State has dismissed junior WR/RB Tyreek Hill following his Thursday night arrest for domestic abuse charges.
Hill has also been dismissed from the track team. The JUCO transfer looked very promising this season, but that all comes to an end very quickly. Expect Hill to enter the 2015 NFL Draft after just one season at the FBS level. Obviously he possesses talent, but Hill could easily go undrafted after this most recent event.
:-0

What did he do?

He won't go undrafted after he runs a 4.2 at the combine.
Stillwater, Okla., police arrested Hill late Thursday night with probable cause for domestic abuse by strangulation, a felony.

OSU released a statement on the matter:

"Oklahoma State University does not tolerate domestic abuse or violence. Based on the evidence and the serious allegations that have been made, Head Football Coach Mike Gundy has announced that Tyreek Hill has been dismissed from the OSU football team. He also has been dismissed from the track team. The allegations are under investigation by Stillwater Police and by the OSU Office of Student Conduct. Those processes will proceed independently."

A police release said Hill and an alleged female victim described as his girlfriend were involved in an argument that escalated into a physical altercation.

Police interviewed the alleged victim at the Stillwater Medical Center Emergency Room. She told police the incident occurred at Hill's residence. According to the release, she said Hill "struck her in the face and stomach and choked her during the assault."
Rotoworld:

Oklahoma State has dismissed junior WR/RB Tyreek Hill following his Thursday night arrest for domestic abuse charges.
Hill has also been dismissed from the track team. The JUCO transfer looked very promising this season, but that all comes to an end very quickly. Expect Hill to enter the 2015 NFL Draft after just one season at the FBS level. Obviously he possesses talent, but Hill could easily go undrafted after this most recent event.
:-0

What did he do?

He won't go undrafted after he runs a 4.2 at the combine.
I don't know. After reading the post that had the arrest details, and the scrutiny right now, he may be black balled. Although he really hasn't been proven guilty of anything. I also have to question his decision making ability.

 
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Rotoworld:

Oklahoma State has dismissed junior WR/RB Tyreek Hill following his Thursday night arrest for domestic abuse charges.
Hill has also been dismissed from the track team. The JUCO transfer looked very promising this season, but that all comes to an end very quickly. Expect Hill to enter the 2015 NFL Draft after just one season at the FBS level. Obviously he possesses talent, but Hill could easily go undrafted after this most recent event.
:-0

What did he do?

He won't go undrafted after he runs a 4.2 at the combine.
Stillwater, Okla., police arrested Hill late Thursday night with probable cause for domestic abuse by strangulation, a felony.

OSU released a statement on the matter:

"Oklahoma State University does not tolerate domestic abuse or violence. Based on the evidence and the serious allegations that have been made, Head Football Coach Mike Gundy has announced that Tyreek Hill has been dismissed from the OSU football team. He also has been dismissed from the track team. The allegations are under investigation by Stillwater Police and by the OSU Office of Student Conduct. Those processes will proceed independently."

A police release said Hill and an alleged female victim described as his girlfriend were involved in an argument that escalated into a physical altercation.

Police interviewed the alleged victim at the Stillwater Medical Center Emergency Room. She told police the incident occurred at Hill's residence. According to the release, she said Hill "struck her in the face and stomach and choked her during the assault."
Olympic caliber speed.

Special Oympic caliber IQ.

It is amazing that these guys can't control themselves with millions at stake.

 
Ka'Deem Carey was arrested on very similar charges as Hill while in college. They were eventually dropped.

Gundy didn't seem to know how to use Hill anyway.

 
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Yes, if you actually hit on him. The odds just seem to be lower that you will.
Such an important point to remember. I know this is the 2015 thread, but I always think about the devy process as a series of hurdles.

good college player ---> high draft pick ---> productive NFL player

I think there's a tendency to assume that players who reach step two will also reach step three. But how many really do? Just look at the class a couple years ago with Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Justin Blackmon, Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck, and Michael Floyd as the top few picks. How many of those guys are reliable weekly performers right now? Just Luck. One or two of the others will probably have some good seasons in the future, but as of right now they haven't become what their owners envisioned when they spent top 5-6 rookie picks on them.

And that's pretty typical. Last year's insane WR class is spoiling us, but when you look at the percentage of top prospects who go on to become reliable yearly elite NFL players, it's only a fraction of that group. Doesn't mean you shouldn't be excited about Cooper, Gordon, Parker, or Gurley, but if you're penciling them into your lineup for the next 7 years then you're likely to be disappointed. Look at the RBs drafted in the first in the past 10 years:

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

CJ Spiller

Ryan Mathews

Jahvid Best

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

Beanie Wells

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Felix Jones

Rashard Mendenhall

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

Marshawn Lynch

Reggie Bush

Laurence Maroney

DeAngelo Williams

Ronnie Brown

Cedric Benson

Cadillac Williams

Many of these guys had some success, but only a small fraction have had truly great careers.
And while far from perfect, the NFL has a much better track record of success when it comes to picking WRs in the first round. Lots of busts, sure, but they're mostly correctly identifying the true blue-chip guys, especially in the first half of the first round.

So what does it all mean? Well, to me it means drafting Amari Cooper if he goes in the top 10 over Gurley, no matter how much you like Gurley and no matter how great his "situation" supposedly is. And it might also mean taking Devante Parker over Gurley and Gordon assuming Parker is the No. 2 WR taken and also goes in the first.

 
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Yes, if you actually hit on him. The odds just seem to be lower that you will.
Such an important point to remember. I know this is the 2015 thread, but I always think about the devy process as a series of hurdles.

good college player ---> high draft pick ---> productive NFL player

I think there's a tendency to assume that players who reach step two will also reach step three. But how many really do? Just look at the class a couple years ago with Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Justin Blackmon, Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck, and Michael Floyd as the top few picks. How many of those guys are reliable weekly performers right now? Just Luck. One or two of the others will probably have some good seasons in the future, but as of right now they haven't become what their owners envisioned when they spent top 5-6 rookie picks on them.

And that's pretty typical. Last year's insane WR class is spoiling us, but when you look at the percentage of top prospects who go on to become reliable yearly elite NFL players, it's only a fraction of that group. Doesn't mean you shouldn't be excited about Cooper, Gordon, Parker, or Gurley, but if you're penciling them into your lineup for the next 7 years then you're likely to be disappointed. Look at the RBs drafted in the first in the past 10 years:

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

CJ Spiller

Ryan Mathews

Jahvid Best

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

Beanie Wells

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Felix Jones

Rashard Mendenhall

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

Marshawn Lynch

Reggie Bush

Laurence Maroney

DeAngelo Williams

Ronnie Brown

Cedric Benson

Cadillac Williams

Many of these guys had some success, but only a small fraction have had truly great careers.
it's probably better to dump off those guys at the first sign of success as when they show anything they get valued super high.

Much easier said than done though. Just so hard to give up a young prospect when they show some potential. Most of those guys were valued as top 10 RB's at one time or another.

 
it's probably better to dump off those guys at the first sign of success as when they show anything they get valued super high.

Much easier said than done though. Just so hard to give up a young prospect when they show some potential. Most of those guys were valued as top 10 RB's at one time or another.
Seems to me that the best time to buy prospects is before their rookie season. Ideally when they're still in college if it's a devy league.

The best time to sell prospects is after their rookie season.

Any time a young player comes in and flashes any talent at all, people assume he's going to be a rock forever.

There are exceptions like Peterson and Julio, but in general high-profile second year players who flashed as rookies are one of the most chronically overrated populations in dynasty leagues (see: Stacy, Patterson, Ellington, and Hunter for just a few recent examples). I don't see myself making any offers for the likes of Martavis Bryant, Tre Mason, Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, and Isaiah Crowell this offseason. Regardless of whether those guys are future stars or not (and I do like a couple of them), the time to buy has come and gone. You're going to pay through the nose now with no margin for error. Better to save those resources and invest them in the next wave.

 
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Yes, if you actually hit on him. The odds just seem to be lower that you will.
Such an important point to remember. I know this is the 2015 thread, but I always think about the devy process as a series of hurdles.

good college player ---> high draft pick ---> productive NFL player

I think there's a tendency to assume that players who reach step two will also reach step three. But how many really do? Just look at the class a couple years ago with Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Justin Blackmon, Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck, and Michael Floyd as the top few picks. How many of those guys are reliable weekly performers right now? Just Luck. One or two of the others will probably have some good seasons in the future, but as of right now they haven't become what their owners envisioned when they spent top 5-6 rookie picks on them.

And that's pretty typical. Last year's insane WR class is spoiling us, but when you look at the percentage of top prospects who go on to become reliable yearly elite NFL players, it's only a fraction of that group. Doesn't mean you shouldn't be excited about Cooper, Gordon, Parker, or Gurley, but if you're penciling them into your lineup for the next 7 years then you're likely to be disappointed. Look at the RBs drafted in the first in the past 10 years:

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

CJ Spiller

Ryan Mathews

Jahvid Best

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

Beanie Wells

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Felix Jones

Rashard Mendenhall

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

Marshawn Lynch

Reggie Bush

Laurence Maroney

DeAngelo Williams

Ronnie Brown

Cedric Benson

Cadillac Williams

Many of these guys had some success, but only a small fraction have had truly great careers.
Even if you add in 2nd and 3rd rounders, it's still brutally ugly trying to find true-difference makers. Check out some of these names that were all going to be sure-fire stud RBs according to us dopes:

2010:

Dexter McCluster

Toby Gerhart

Ben Tate

Montario Hardesty

2011:

Ryan Williams

Shane Vereen

Mikel Leshoure

Daniel Thomas

Stevan Ridley

Alex Green

Only true hit was third-rounder DeMarco Murray, who most thought was too injury prone to ever do anything.

2012:

Isaiah Pead

LaMichael James

Ronnie Hillman

Bernard Pierce

2013:

Second-rounders Gio Bernard and Montee Ball have taken big steps back after they were deemed studs by the fantasy world following their rookie years.

Both Eddie Lacy and LeVeon Bell seem like big-time hits right now.

Christine Michael still waiting for a chance.

Knile Davis probably not going to do much.

2014:

Too early to tell yet on Sankey, Hill, Hyde, Mason, Sims, West and McKinnon.

 
So 36 RBs have been taken in the first three rounds over the past five years, and what do we have to show for it? I'd say about five guys, tops.

LeVeon Bell

Eddie Lacy

DeMarco Murray

Mark Ingram

Gio Bernard (devolved into time-share with Hill)

CJ Spiller (always hurt)

Ryan Mathews (always hurt)

Montee Ball (hurt, lost job, time-share)

I mean, this is just awful. Carlos Hyde might be the fourth- or fifth-ranked guy right now for dynasty purposes and he basically hasn't even played!!!!

 
MAC_32 said:
wdcrob said:
I try pretty hard not to form strong opinions about guys until after the combine, but I'll be shocked if I like Ajayi when all is said and done. If forced to pick today there are at least 5 or 6 RBs I'd have ahead of him.
This really stuck out when I read it. Why would this be the case? I find I prefer to use their college production/how they look in college over the Underwear Olympics. I DO use the combine as a tie-breaker at times but would rather get excited by Amari Cooper (on production) than Darius Heyward-Bey (by how he is at the combine).
Different strokes.
Uh huh. Personally, I think using college production as a basis is just as flawed as the combine. Start with what the player actually does on the field then tie in what they've actually been able to produce. The combine should more or less confirm what you thought about them when watching them play. If there's a disconnect then re-evaluate.

I think I get 10x more out of what I read about Senior Bowl practice reports than I do anything at the underwear olympics and pro days.
So how/when do you get your assessment for when to draft them if you don't base it on college production? Most dynasty rookie drafts are before the players get on the field with their new teams.

 
I have to see their combine numbers as well. If they're not a certain level of athlete I won't draft them. It's hard for me to draft a small RB as well. Take Gio for instance. He's awesome but he simply isn't big enough to carry the load. Give me the 220 pound rb prospect every time.

 
I liked Marqise Lee in college. I thought he looked a lot like Reggie Wayne then he showed up at the combine small and slow. No thanks.

 
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http://www.draftinsider.net/blog/?p=10115

I’m told receivers Jordan Payton of UCLA and Breshad Perriman of Central Florida will enter the draft.

Payton was the favorite target of Brett Hundley this season registering 63 receptions for 896 yards and 7 scores. Perriman had an up and down season posting 41 receptions for 906 yards (22.1yd average) and 9 scores. Perriman has flashed big time ability the past two seasons as well as an equal amount of inconsistency in his game.

Receiver Cayleb Jones of Arizona, who began his college career at Texas, seems undecided about his next move. It was thought for the longest time Jones, who led the Wildcats with 65 receptions for 902 yards, would enter the draft but he’s recently pulled back and remains uncommitted.
 
Anyone have thoughts on Rice WR Jordan Taylor? He is one of four WRs who I've seen listed at 6'5" (the others are Dorial Green-Beckham, Devin Funchess, and Mekale McKay). And by my numbers, he has been the most productive college receiver out of those 4 (though I don't have any of the 4 rated all that highly).

 
So 36 RBs have been taken in the first three rounds over the past five years, and what do we have to show for it? I'd say about five guys, tops.

LeVeon Bell

Eddie Lacy

DeMarco Murray

Mark Ingram

Gio Bernard (devolved into time-share with Hill)

CJ Spiller (always hurt)

Ryan Mathews (always hurt)

Montee Ball (hurt, lost job, time-share)

I mean, this is just awful. Carlos Hyde might be the fourth- or fifth-ranked guy right now for dynasty purposes and he basically hasn't even played!!!!
That might be a bit too pessimistic. Mason and McKinnon have done some good things this year. The jury is still out on Christine Michael and Carlos Hyde. I think there will be a few more "hits" than your list indicates. Or at least a few more partial hits.

I think you're right in the sense that most good prospects aren't going to become the type of consistent contributors that their owners envision.

That makes sense when you think about it though. At any given time there are maybe 10-20 really great FF players out there. I'm talking about guys like Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Calvin, Demaryius, Graham, and Gronk. Rare talents are exactly that -- rare. Even the best college players are a big underdog to reach that level. All you can do is make informed decisions and hope for the best.

 
MAC_32 said:
wdcrob said:
I try pretty hard not to form strong opinions about guys until after the combine, but I'll be shocked if I like Ajayi when all is said and done. If forced to pick today there are at least 5 or 6 RBs I'd have ahead of him.
This really stuck out when I read it. Why would this be the case? I find I prefer to use their college production/how they look in college over the Underwear Olympics. I DO use the combine as a tie-breaker at times but would rather get excited by Amari Cooper (on production) than Darius Heyward-Bey (by how he is at the combine).
Different strokes.
Uh huh. Personally, I think using college production as a basis is just as flawed as the combine. Start with what the player actually does on the field then tie in what they've actually been able to produce. The combine should more or less confirm what you thought about them when watching them play. If there's a disconnect then re-evaluate. I think I get 10x more out of what I read about Senior Bowl practice reports than I do anything at the underwear olympics and pro days.
So how/when do you get your assessment for when to draft them if you don't base it on college production? Most dynasty rookie drafts are before the players get on the field with their new teams.
i watch more college ball than pro, so often times I already know how I feel about a particular player. I think it's important to have a solid baseline before entering silly season so you don't adjust your board too much as new info comes out, if your board looks much different in May than it does in January I think there is a problem. The majority of the significant adjustments I have made in recent years have come immediately after the draft. I didn't event re rank them last year, just highlighted values to target and cross players off that would cost more than I am interested in paying then traded around accordingly to get the guys I want.
 
Take your consistent FF producers at each position, reverse engineer them via physical profile, collegiate ouput, then metrics via the combine/pro days. Forget draft position altogether, seems simple.

 
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Rotoworld:

Breshad Perriman - WR - Knights

TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline reports that UCF junior WR Breshad Perriman will enter the draft.

CBS Sports' Dane Brugler wrote last week that Perriman "is a[n] NFL prospect who will get more and more ink if he declares early." Well, start up the presses. Pauline graded Perriman as a preseason Round 5 prospect, though he's probably inched up boards a little. Perriman drops balls that he shouldn't, and his technique doesn't inspire, but he's a legit deep threat who forces safeties back. The 6-foot-2, 209-pounder has caught a touchdown in seven straight contests, and nine of 10. You probably recall his Hail Mary reception to beat East Carolina last week. Perriman collected 41 receptions on the season for 906 yards (a 22.1 YPR average) and nine scores. "Perriman has flashed big time ability the past two seasons as well as an equal amount of inconsistency in his game," Pauline wrote.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Dec 13 - 9:34 PM
Jordan Payton - WR - Bruins

UCLA junior WR Jordan Payton will declare for the draft, reports TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.

We like Payton enough, but are a bit surprised by this news. CBS Sports ranks him as the No. 22 receiver. Payton had less than 700 receiving yards over his first two years on campus combined. This season, he's hauled in 63 receptions for 896 yards and seven touchdowns. "Payton's hands are so strong," an NFC GM said earlier this year. Added NFL.com draft analysts Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks and Charles Davis: "His hands are one of his best assets, but he's a pretty complete receiver, runs routes well, and has good speed."

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Dec 13 - 8:46 PM
 
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Rotoworld:

Melvin Gordon - RB - Badgers

Wisconsin redshirt junior RB Melvin Gordon III "boasts elite acceleration and great lateral agility to make defenders miss," according to CBS Sports' Rob Rang.

"He boasts elite acceleration and great lateral agility to make defenders miss, a combination that has earned comparisons to Kansas City Chiefs' star Jamaal Charles, though Gordon is bigger," Rang wrote. The Heisman hopeful flashes major vision and the ability to create in the hole, while making the initial defender miss. Rang notes that even though Gordon "has been aided by a talented offensive line, make no mistake, he's an elite talent in his own right."

Source: CBS Sports

Dec 12 - 2:48 PM
 
Rotoworld:

Jaelen Strong - WR - Sun Devils

ESPN's Mel Kiper believes Arizona State redshirt junior WR Jaelen Strong "is a second-round pick who could become a late first if he runs well."

"I think he's a second-round pick who could become a late first if he runs well,'' Kiper said. "The big question will be separation speed, quickness out of your break, explosiveness out of your break. Pro day's going to be very important for Jaelen Strong, there's no question about that. He can't go to any postseason all-star games as (a junior)." The 6-foot-4, 205-pound Strong has hauled in 75 receptions for 1062 yards and ten touchdowns this season. Still, Strong should peak the curiosity of many teams and will likely wind up in the second-round.

Source: AZCentral.com

Dec 11 - 3:21 PM
 
I wish they'd open the senior bowl to all draft eligible players and rename it to the college all star game or something. Would make it much more exciting and we'd actually get to see the top prospects play each other.

 
I wish they'd open the senior bowl to all draft eligible players and rename it to the college all star game or something. Would make it much more exciting and we'd actually get to see the top prospects play each other.
I kind of like it the way it is. Let's face it, the underclassmen who declaire are more often than not just better players than the seniors who are declaring. I feel we and the actual scouts/teams have a much better feel for these underclassmen because they are much more in the limelight. With these seniors it really gives a great chance to evaluate them as they aren't focused on as much.

 
https://twitter.com/nfldraftscout/status/544544775505215488

Louisville WR @TalentedYoung9 [DeVante Parker] tells me he has declined a Senior Bowl invite, will focus on training for the NFL Combine and his pro day.
https://twitter.com/JHokanson/status/544588421952704512

Sammie Coates plans to accept an invite to the Senior Bowl, early graduation makes him eligible. http://auburn.247sports.com/Article/Sammie-Coates-will-declare-for-the-NFL-Draft-33884645 … @Auburn247
 
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The work-in-progress Senior Bowl roster includes some new names:

QB Shane Carden, East Carolina

QB Garrett Grayson, Colorado State

RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn

RB David Cobb, Minnesota

RB David Johnson, Northern Iowa

RB Jeremy Langford, Michigan State

WR Dres Anderson, Utah

WR Jamison Crowder, Duke

WR Devante Davis, UNLV

WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami

WR Justin Hardy, East Carolina

WR Josh Harper, Fresno State

WR Dezmin Lewis, Central Arkansas

WR Tony Lippett, Michigan State

WR Tyler Lockett, Kansas State

WR Donatella Luckett, Harding

WR Vince Mayle, Washington State

WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford

WR Kevin White, West Virginia

Never heard of Dezmin Lewis or Donatella Luckett before. Small school guys are always interesting.

I'm eager to see how Grayson, Mayle, Montgomery, and White fare. Would not be surprised if the latter two destroy the DBs routinely.

The RB list is still pretty bare, so we'll have to wait and see who else is invited. No shortage of candidates.

 
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