Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Shouldn't have used Harrison as an example since he's pre 1999. Do you have an older source for this stuff.
I think we were all wrong on that front. I think the situation argument would be Benjamin vs. Sammy, perhaps?How about when we were all doing our rookie drafts?Who takes the Sammy side of the talent argument today? Not me.I have seen a goodly percentage of people in these threads saying to the effect of, "Talent over situation - every time!". Well, I give you Sammy Watkins vs Odell Beckham Jr.
10 years ago he was a consensus top 5 WR. That's where I got the names. I went back 10 years and looked at the top 5 dynasty WRs.Shouldn't have used Harrison as an example since he's pre 1999. Do you have an older source for this stuff.
Holt was 6', 190 - that's pretty small in the context we're discussing here.Larry was the #1 dynasty WR following the 2005 season (and Smith is a freak). Holt wasn't small. Harrison was certainly a beast despite his size.10 years ago, like when the 5'9" 195lb Steve Smith was the consensus #1 dynasty WR coming off a 1600/13 season? The same 10 years ago where 3 of the top 5 dynasty WRs were under 6 feet tall and under 200lbs (Smith, Harrison, Holt)?
There have certainly been smaller WRs who found success in the NFL. I just don't think they compare, in number, to those doing it today. Brown, Sanders, Hilton, Maclin, Beckham, Cobb, and Jackson all finished top 13 in yards. That's more than half. Of course they would be impacted more by the rule changes than those better able to physcially deal with additional contact.
I think it's pretty clear watching Brown that those numbers don't represent his actual speed/athleticism. One of the least athletic WR's in the NFL? Slow? Do you watch many Steelers games? Sometimes the combine numbers just lie, or come about because a guy has horrible technique, etc.Which is why I careful to pick a guy who was not only 5'10, 186 but also slow and one of the least athletic WRs in the NFL.Chad Johnson is probably the best comp overall, but at 2" taller he was still built differently.But, sure. If you consider 213 pounds the same as 186 and/or want to consider 4.38 the same as 4.56 then yeah Brown is nothing new.10 years ago, like when the 5'9" 195lb Steve Smith was the consensus #1 dynasty WR coming off a 1600/13 season? The same 10 years ago where 3 of the top 5 dynasty WRs were under 6 feet tall and under 200lbs (Smith, Harrison, Holt)?No way to prove it, but I absolutely think this is true. Guys like Antonio Brown would have had a hard time being downfield #1s 10-15 years ago IMO.Concept Coop said:I think it absolutely was at one point. When that changed--I think we could debate. But the NFL is being decided in space more than it ever has been. Defenses used to be able to bully eligbiles much more than they can get away with today. Schemes are still adjusting to take advantage of that, which is a major part of it as well. Just look the slot utilization today compared to even 5-7 years ago.FreeBaGeL said:It's never been a glass ceiling. We just went through a period of a couple of years where the top tier of dynasty WRs was briefly made up of all big, fast guys so many people misinterpreted that to mean that you had to be big and fast to be a tier 1 WR. See the Sammy Watkins thread this offseason, where it was basically argued that it was impossible to be an elite dynasty WR unless you were 6'2" or above. There were plenty of people that saw through it.
10 years ago...Larry was the #1 dynasty WR following the 2005 season (and Smith is a freak). Holt wasn't small. Harrison was certainly a beast despite his size.10 years ago, like when the 5'9" 195lb Steve Smith was the consensus #1 dynasty WR coming off a 1600/13 season? The same 10 years ago where 3 of the top 5 dynasty WRs were under 6 feet tall and under 200lbs (Smith, Harrison, Holt)?
There have certainly been smaller WRs who found success in the NFL. I just don't think they compare, in number, to those doing it today. Brown, Sanders, Hilton, Maclin, Beckham, Cobb, and Jackson all finished top 13 in yards. That's more than half. Of course they would be impacted more by the rule changes than those better able to physcially deal with additional contact.
Top 15 WRs (yards) in 2001There have certainly been smaller WRs who found success in the NFL. I just don't think they compare, in number, to those doing it today. Brown, Sanders, Hilton, Maclin, Beckham, Cobb, and Jackson all finished top 13 in yards. That's more than half. Of course they would be impacted more by the rule changes than those better able to physcially deal with additional contact.
Imagine what a ton would do for the BMI.most are under 2000 pounds.![]()
well, they do work out.most are under 2000 pounds.![]()
Top 15, under 6 feet tall:10 years ago...
Steve Smith
Santana Moss
Chad Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Anquan Boldin
Torry Holt
Joey Galloway
Donald Driver
Plaxico Burress
Marvin Harrison
Terry Glenn
Chris Chambers
Rod Smith
8 of the top 13.![]()
2014:2001:
14. Derrick Mason
2005:Top 15, under 6 feet tall:10 years ago...Larry was the #1 dynasty WR following the 2005 season (and Smith is a freak). Holt wasn't small. Harrison was certainly a beast despite his size.10 years ago, like when the 5'9" 195lb Steve Smith was the consensus #1 dynasty WR coming off a 1600/13 season? The same 10 years ago where 3 of the top 5 dynasty WRs were under 6 feet tall and under 200lbs (Smith, Harrison, Holt)?
There have certainly been smaller WRs who found success in the NFL. I just don't think they compare, in number, to those doing it today. Brown, Sanders, Hilton, Maclin, Beckham, Cobb, and Jackson all finished top 13 in yards. That's more than half. Of course they would be impacted more by the rule changes than those better able to physcially deal with additional contact.
Steve Smith
Santana Moss
Chad Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Anquan Boldin
Torry Holt
Joey Galloway
Donald Driver
Plaxico Burress
Marvin Harrison
Terry Glenn
Chris Chambers
Rod Smith
8 of the top 13.![]()
2014:
Brown,
Sanders,
Hilton,
Beckham,
Tate,
Cobb,
Jackson
2004:
Mason
Troy Brown was 5'10" - and this conversation really started about Cooper "only" being 6'1". Is there really any difference between 6' and 5'10" in the context of this conversation?Under 6:
2014:2001:
14. Derrick Mason
Brown,
Sanders,
Hilton,
Beckham,
Tate,
Cobb,
Jackson
We seem to be having different conversations. My point was that WR production is less dependant on size/length due to rule and scheme changes. Not that Amari Cooper is small. He's not and I never suggested such.Troy Brown was 5'10" - and this conversation really started about Cooper "only" being 6'1". Is there really any difference between 6' and 5'10" in the context of this conversation?
Again, we're having different conversations. My point: WR production is less dependant on size/length due to changes in rules/schemes. If you disagree with that, I'd be happy to have the conversation.It's not even like 2004 was some big outlier either, it's just that a bunch of the guys happened to be exactly 6'0" that year (which was in your range before). That's not to mention that this conversation started around Amari Cooper who was 6'1" 210lbs. In the time frames we're talking about a typical year had about 12 of the top 15 that were under that size.
I don't think we were, I just pointed something else out (the Amari Cooper thing) in a quick sentence at the end.Again, we're having different conversations. My point: WR production is less dependant on size/length due to changes in rules/schemes. If you disagree with that, I'd be happy to have the conversation.It's not even like 2004 was some big outlier either, it's just that a bunch of the guys happened to be exactly 6'0" that year (which was in your range before). That's not to mention that this conversation started around Amari Cooper who was 6'1" 210lbs. In the time frames we're talking about a typical year had about 12 of the top 15 that were under that size.
10 years ago, 6/200 was not small. If we're going to make lists, we need set criteria, at least. We should also adjust to the averages of the time, but who has time for that?
There should be. Virtually all WRs are between 69" and 77". So two inches is 25% of the entire range.Troy Brown was 5'10" - and this conversation really started about Cooper "only" being 6'1". Is there really any difference between 6' and 5'10" in the context of this conversation?Under 6:
2014:2001:
14. Derrick Mason
Brown,
Sanders,
Hilton,
Beckham,
Tate,
Cobb,
Jackson
You seem to misinterpret my posts. I didn't set size/length requirements 3 times; I set it once in an attempt to get some [SIZE=10.5pt]consistency[/SIZE]. And it wasn't cherry picked at all.Aside from the fact that you've changed those size/length requirements about 3 times now to try and find the perfect cherry picked cutoff that will make it look like little guys are succeeding more now than they were in the past, it still hasn't been done.
Honestly, for myself. I based the comparison strictly based on how he attacks the ball, catches with his hands and separates himself from the defender when the ball was in the air...that's it.EBF said:People say White is like Larry Fitz, but from my perspective that's just the # and the haircut. He isn't as big as Fitzgerald. Doesn't have the same strength in his base. I do think he runs really good routes and has nice quickness. This might be an odd comparison, but he actually reminds me a lot of Cecil Shorts. Taller and doesn't seem to have the same issues with drops, but similar movement and route running. I think he has a good chance to be a solid starter. I don't see him as that "wow" type of guy who warrants a high first round pick.What are your thoughts on Cooper vs. White?Am I the only one not overly impressed with Cooper?Worried about this WR class in general. I have the 1.01 pick in one league and the 1.02 pick in another. I'd love nothing more than to get an elite WR, but is there anyone in this class you can point to as a lock prospect? Cooper/Parker/Funchess/DGB/White all seem to have at least one or two things you can nitpick. I'm sure a couple of those guys will end up being solid, but the trust factor isn't there for me yet. The combine should help clear things up. Not only because of the tangible measurements, but also by offering a level playing field and good camera angles to evaluate movement. That's one area where some of the eventual successes like Hopkins and Beckham really stood out in previous years.
fair enough - I guess in the context of the conversation I figured 6' or under would be considered "small".There should be. Virtually all WRs are between 69" and 77". So two inches is 25% of the entire range.Troy Brown was 5'10" - and this conversation really started about Cooper "only" being 6'1". Is there really any difference between 6' and 5'10" in the context of this conversation?Under 6:
2014:2001:
14. Derrick Mason
Brown,
Sanders,
Hilton,
Beckham,
Tate,
Cobb,
Jackson
I'm a big fan of the concrete tangibles, but every now and then a player comes along where the numbers clearly don't represent how he plays. Antonio Brown and Chad Johnson are two perfect examples. Those guys are (or, in Chad's case, were) very explosive. Their combines don't tell the story at all.I think it's pretty clear watching Brown that those numbers don't represent his actual speed/athleticism. One of the least athletic WR's in the NFL? Slow? Do you watch many Steelers games? Sometimes the combine numbers just lie, or come about because a guy has horrible technique, etc.
J. Landry as well.I'm a big fan of the concrete tangibles, but every now and then a player comes along where the numbers clearly don't represent how he plays. Antonio Brown and Chad Johnson are two perfect examples. Those guys are (or, in Chad's case, were) very explosive. Their combines don't tell the story at all.I think it's pretty clear watching Brown that those numbers don't represent his actual speed/athleticism. One of the least athletic WR's in the NFL? Slow? Do you watch many Steelers games? Sometimes the combine numbers just lie, or come about because a guy has horrible technique, etc.
CBS Sports' Dane Brugler observes at East-West Shrine practice that William & Mary senior WR Tre McBride is "showing he can gain separation, track and finish against FBS guys."
"Pierre Garçon, err, I mean Tre McBride showing he can gain separation, track and finish against FBS guys. Understands the details of WR," Brugler tweeted. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound McBRide hauled in 64 receptions for 809 yards, with four touchdowns this year, and finished with 63 receptions for 801 yards and five touchdowns in 2013. The William & Mary prospect averaged 27.5 yards per kick return and has posted 15 TD receptions over the past two seasons. Rotoworld's Josh Norris believes McBride is the clear top receiver at the East-West Shrine.
Source: Dane Brugler on Twitter
Jan 12 - 3:20 PM
TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline notes that Michigan senior QB Devin Gardner is off to a "very inconsistent start" at Monday's East-West Shrine practice.
"Very inconsistent start for Devin Gardner/Michigan; very uneven start. A few nice receptions but a lot of drops," Pauline tweeted. The former 6-foot-4, 220-pound Michighan QB began his career as a starting WR for the Wolverines. Gardner hauled in 16 receptions for 266 yards and 4 touchdowns before moving back to QB to replace an injured Denard Robinson. While Gardner will have every opportunity to impress the scouts, the jury is still out for Gardner as a WR at the next level.
Source: Tony Pauline on Twitter
Jan 12 - 2:18 PM
Old Dominion senior quarterback Taylor Heinicke is "looking the best" of the quarterbacks at Monday's East-West Shrine practice, according to TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline.
The 6-foot-1, 213-pound Heinicke threw for 3,476 yards this season, with a 30/16 TD/INT ratio. TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline calls Heinicke "a cross between Colt Brennan and Chase Daniel." CBS Sports' Dane Brugler mentioned last month, that the Old Dominion QB could be "this year's Garoppolo," while ESPN's Mel Kiper believes Heinicke "is a sleeper to watch."
Source: Tony Pauline on Twitter
Jan 12 - 2:12 PM
TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline notes that Georgia Tech senior WR Darren Waller is "dominating opponents" in one on ones at Monday's East-West Shrine practice.
"Darren Waller/Georgia Tech looks like a beast in one on one. Dominating opponents," Pauline tweeted. The 6-foot-5, 232-pound Waller, whose usage is restricted in the Yellow Jackets' triple-option offense, is an athletic freak who runs a 4.54 forty. Waller "has great upside potential," TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline gave Waller a sixth-round preseason grade over the summer.
Source: Tony Pauline on Twitter
Jan 12 - 2:02 PM
Tony Pauline passes along news that William & Mary WR Tre McBride has been labeled as "soft" by area scouts.
Rotoworld's Josh Norris believes McBride is the clear top receiver at the East West Shrine game and just behind John Brown in terms of Shrine receivers in the last tow years. He can create separation with routes and burst, but McBride also will win in contested situations.
Source: Philadelphia Eagles
Jan 12 - 9:33 AM
Ben Koyack in the same tier as Maxx Williams? Oof!Here's a tiered list based on where DraftScout projects them to go:Can we get a top 30 going on this thread?
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SOLID FIRST ROUNDERS
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QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
QB Jameis Winston, Florida State
RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
WR Kevin White, West Virginia
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FIRST/SECOND ROUND FRINGE
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RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
WR Sammie Coates, Auburn
WR Devin Funchess, Michigan
WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
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SECOND-THIRD ROUNDERS
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RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
RB Jay Ajayi, Boise State
RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn
RB Javorius Allen, USC
RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana
RB Mike Davis, South Carolina
RB Duke Johnson, Miami
RB TJ Yeldon, Alabama
WR Nelson Agholor, USC
WR Josh Harper, Fresno State
WR Rashad Greene, Florida State
WR Tony Lippett, Michigan State
WR Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
WR Vince Mayle, Washington State
WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford
TE Ben Koyack, Notre Dame
TE Nick O'Leary, Florida State
TE Clive Walford, Miami
TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota
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THIRD ROUND FRINGE-FOURTH ROUNDERS
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RB David Cobb, Minnesota
RB Jeremy Langford, Michigan State
WR Dres Anderson, Utah
WR Stefon Diggs, Maryland
WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami
WR Deontay Greenberry, Houston
WR Austin Hill, Arizona
WR Devin Smith, Ohio State
TE Jesse James, Penn State
TE Tyler Kroft, Rutgers
That's a good starting point. I would apply a -2 tier bump for the QBs due to the low positional value in FF and my own lack of excitement for those players. I would apply a +1 tier adjustment to anyone I like above average, no tier adjustment to anyone I'm lukewarm on, and a -1 tier adjustment to anyone I strongly dislike. That gives something like...
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RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma
WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
WR Kevin White, West Virginia
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RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
WR Sammie Coates, Auburn
WR Devin Funchess, Michigan
WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford
WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
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QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
QB Jameis Winston, Florida State
RB Jay Ajayi, Boise State
RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn
RB David Cobb, Minnesota
RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana
RB Mike Davis, South Carolina
RB Duke Johnson, Miami
RB TJ Yeldon, Alabama
WR Stefon Diggs, Maryland
WR Vince Mayle, Washington State
WR Devin Smith, Ohio State
TE Ben Koyack, Notre Dame
TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RB Javorius Allen, USC
RB Jeremy Langford, Michigan State
WR Nelson Agholor, USC
WR Dres Anderson, Utah
WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami
WR Deontay Greenberry, Houston
WR Rashad Greene, Florida State
WR Josh Harper, Fresno State
WR Austin Hill, Arizona
WR Tony Lippett, Michigan State
WR Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
TE Jesse James, Penn State
TE Tyler Kroft, Rutgers
TE Nick O'Leary, Florida State
TE Clive Walford, Miami
Wild cards with actual potential:
RB Michael Dyer, Louisville
RB Trey Williams Texas A&M
WR Tyreek Hill, Oklahoma State
That doesn't look too far off to me. I could probably be convinced to fold the second tier into the third tier. That area might need more refinement, but generally I think this is a pretty good start. I neglected to add QBs outside of Winston and Mariota because any non first round pick is likely to fall deep and those two look like the only sure bets.
UCF junior WR Breshad Perriman will enter the 2015 NFL Draft.
According to Tony Pauline, Perriman did not receive a day one or day two grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Board, which means the group suggested he stay in school. Perriman joins a very good receiver class, which follows up potentially the best receiver draft in NFL history. Perriman does win in the "big" game, in terms of off the ground and in contested situations.
Source: Orlando Sentinel
Jan 12 - 9:06 AM
DraftScout has Williams projected as a second round pick and Koyack projected as a third. I generally don't put a tier break between the 2nd/3rd round in the NFL draft. For me it's 1st rounders/2nd-3rd rounders/4th rounders/everybody else. I think Williams is the better FF prospect based on his production and receiving skills, but unless he's a 1st round NFL draft pick then he's probably not going to crack the top 10-12 of rookie drafts.Ben Koyack in the same tier as Maxx Williams? Oof!
Awesome! Especially the Dyer vid.Started cutting up some games:
Michael Dyer vs Florida State
Brandon Wegher vs Nebraska Wesleyan
one for the Devy crowd.....
Nick Chubb vs Louisville (Belk Bowl)
I plan on knocking out a lot more between now and May.
If I take my generic rookie rankings formula for a non-PPR league, and plug in CBS's predraft rankings as the draft picks, then this is the leaderboard that I get:Can we get a top 30 going on this thread?
Your spreadsheets are awesome. I'm trying to find the NC State game for Dyer, but I don't have it yet. I'm sure I'll do several of the guys you listed. I don' t think Dixon is coming out, but I may have missed him announcing otherwise.Awesome! Especially the Dyer vid.Started cutting up some games:
Michael Dyer vs Florida State
Brandon Wegher vs Nebraska Wesleyan
one for the Devy crowd.....
Nick Chubb vs Louisville (Belk Bowl)
I plan on knocking out a lot more between now and May.
I keep watching game cutups and updating my elusiveness stats spreadsheet. Hoping that the kindly people of the internet will provide more games of Dyer, Tevin Coleman, Josh Robinson, Cameron Artis-Payne, Jeremy Langford, Kenneth Dixon, Matt Jones, and David Johnson.
Devin SmithThree of fastest-rising prospects in Monday's game all flashed -- Oregon defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, and Ohio State WR Devin Smith. They weren't all dominant but you saw the quickness and range of Buckner, the strength and power of Armstead at the point of attack, and the deep speed from Smith.
Smith reminds me some of Mike Wallace because he is a pure deep threat. He needs time to develop route trees but can take the top off a defense with his speed. I'm eager to see him at the Senior Bowl next week because there will be a few corners there that many wonder if they can really run; we'll be able to see right away when they line up across from Smith.
CBS Sports' Rob Rang believes Ohio State senior TE Jeff Heuerman "has helped himself in 2014 because of his improvements as a blocker in the Buckeyes' offense."
An important note on Heuerman's draft stock, because he'd posted only 17 catches for 207 yards and two touchdowns heading into Monday night. "Lining up in the backfield, inline or out wide, he does a terrific job breaking down and engaging with his target, sustaining his blocks with technique and toughness," Rang wrote. "Heuerman was always an above average athlete for the position, but he has finally put it all together to best use that fluidity in his routes and after the catch. He could be a top-100 prospect due to his all-around, versatile skill-set."
Source: CBS Sports
Jan 12 - 9:46 PM
CBS Sports' Rob Rang wrote that Ohio State senior WR Devin Smith is a "nine route monster with his striding speed to stretch the field, tracking extremely well with the ball skills to finish."
"However, it's the rest of the route tree that is the concern with his next level potential, lacking seasoning as an underneath receiver," Rang wrote. "Smith has sticky hands to make highlight reel grabs and has scored 12 touchdowns in 2014 on only 32 receptions - that's a touchdown every 2.7 catches, best in the NCAA. He is one of the best prospects for the 2015 NFL Draft class when it comes to vertical patterns, but his limitations elsewhere make it tough to feel confident with him as anything more than a No. 3 or 4 NFL receiver." The 6-foot-1, 197-pound Smith entered Monday night with 32 receptions for 886 yards, averaging 27.7 yards per catch.
Source: CBS Sports
Jan 12 - 9:24 PM
South Alabama senior TE Wes Saxton is "very impressive" athletically, but he's dropping to many catchable throws" at East-West Shrine practice, according to TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline.
The South Alabama prospect hauled in 20 catches for 155 yards this season, but missed three games due to injury. In Saxton's junior season, he hauled in 50 receptions for 635 yards averaging 12.7 yards a carry. Saxton is a very intriguing move tight end prospect, due to his size and athleticism. However, Pauline noted back in August that Saxton was "also rough around the edges, showing little impact as a blocker and dropping a number of easy passes thrown in his direction."
Source: Tony Pauline on Twitter
Jan 13 - 4:04 PM
TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline notes that Arizona redshirt senior WR Austin Hill could be a "late round steal" and mentioned that he was "applauded by coaches for his route running and pass catching" at East-West Shrine practice.
Pauline reported back in December, that NFL scouts have concerns that Hill isn't completely healed from last season's knee injury. The Wildcats used Hill in more of a tight end role as the 2014 season progressed. The Arizona prospect finished the season second on the team in receptions with 49, and was third on the team in receiving yards with 635. Pauline noted last month that Hill's "inability to separate from defenders on the college level is causing a lot of concern from area scouts, many who now stamp Hill as a late rounder."
Source: Tony Pauline on Twitter
Jan 13 - 3:19 PM
Sports Illustrated's Chris Burke believes Ohio State senior TE Jeff Heuerman has made a case to be "the No. 2 [rated tight end in the class] as a versatile talent in a slightly underwhelming class."
Minnesota's Maxx Williams is the consensus top tight end in the class. "Ohio State relies on Heuerman far more as a blocker than a pass-catcher," Burke wrote. "Heuerman has, however, flashed the ability to trouble defenses downfield, plus will stand out above some of his positional counterparts for the work he does in the run game." Heuerman posted only 17 catches for 207 yards and two touchdowns, but it's fair to point out that he struggled with injuries in 2014, and was also a victim of Ohio State having too many mouths to feed on offense.
Source: Sports Illustrated
Jan 13 - 6:46 PM