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[Dynasty] 2019 NFL Draft Class (3 Viewers)

Bojang0301 said:
Finally got around to calculating some market share numbers last night (work ZWK has probably had done since the end of bowl season) I have to admit Benny Snell and Alexander Mattison were big surprises. I still can’t get over people wanting to say and put Josh Jacobs as #1 overall. He had an 11% team market share... it was dead last amongst the 35 prospects I calculated including Kerrith Whyte, Tony Pollard, Bruce Anderson and Lance Dunn. People can think or say it doesn’t matter but it has a very strong correlation with success. If I was walking into the process blind he would probably start working his way into the conversation in the early teens when his receiving share starts distinguishing him from other players. 
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Who in the hell is Lance Dunn, Bruce Anderson, Tonly Pollard, and Kerrith Whyte?  When you start comparing Jacobs to people like that IMO it instantly loses credibility.   Not sure what formulas you're using, but I would stop it immediately. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
What is everyone's opinion of the QBs after Murray and Haskins? 

Anyone worth grabbing end of round 2/round 3? 

Stidham had round 1 buzz... any thoughts? Wait for 2020?
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I only play in FFPC style leagues in terms of # of keepers, so it depends on my starting QB situation. If I have an aging starter (Big Ben or even Rodgers at this point) I might spend a couple of 3/4/5 round picks on whichever 1st/2nd round NFL draft QBs are still there (there are always a few since those shallow leagues avoid QBs). I’ll throw a couple of darts and if one of them sparks, I’ll keep. 

Thats how I got Goff a couple years back when I grabbed him and Lynch in that draft (Lynch was a sure thing since QB expert Elway draft him ;)  ). 

But I only go with that plan if none of my top ~20 RB/WRs rookies are on the board. 

 
Also, I have to seriously put consideration of Trayveon Williams as RB1 against Darrell Henderson. The level of competition being what it is Williams was a dominant force in the SEC (as was Snell who I’ve had to revise my opinion on) it will probably come down to who checks the most boxes athletically. 

People have mentioned James Williams repeatedly as a receiving back to keep an eye on. I don’t have my numbers in front of me but I think he was roughly 12.3% of the receiving share, next highest was Darwin Thompson at 9.1%. I will be targeting both heavily.

 
JohnnyU said:
Who in the hell is Lance Dunn, Bruce Anderson, Tonly Pollard, and Kerrith Whyte?  When you start comparing Jacobs to people like that IMO it instantly loses credibility.   Not sure what formulas you're using, but I would stop it immediately. 
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How does it lose credibility? I would say having a deep understanding of the draft class adds credibility and also a full spectrum. Did I use Jacobs in the manner he was used? I did not. That was Nick Saban, most people’s greatest college coach of all time. I didn’t create the hype machine but I’ll certainly fight against it until I have a reason not to (off the charts athleticism, high draft capital and a perfect situation). He does not pass the smell test for collegiate production other than as a satellite/recieving back.

 
Bojang0301 said:
Also, I have to seriously put consideration of Trayveon Williams as RB1 against Darrell Henderson. The level of competition being what it is Williams was a dominant force in the SEC (as was Snell who I’ve had to revise my opinion on) it will probably come down to who checks the most boxes athletically. 

People have mentioned James Williams repeatedly as a receiving back to keep an eye on. I don’t have my numbers in front of me but I think he was roughly 12.3% of the receiving share, next highest was Darwin Thompson at 9.1%. I will be targeting both heavily.
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His size is the same as Aaron Jones yet Jones keeps having knee issues himself. Not sure I would have William's that high but he certainly is worth looking at

 
joey said:
I only play in FFPC style leagues in terms of # of keepers, so it depends on my starting QB situation. If I have an aging starter (Big Ben or even Rodgers at this point) I might spend a couple of 3/4/5 round picks on whichever 1st/2nd round NFL draft QBs are still there (there are always a few since those shallow leagues avoid QBs). I’ll throw a couple of darts and if one of them sparks, I’ll keep. 

Thats how I got Goff a couple years back when I grabbed him and Lynch in that draft (Lynch was a sure thing since QB expert Elway draft him ;)  ). 

But I only go with that plan if none of my top ~20 RB/WRs rookies are on the board. 
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I was considering offering a mid to low expected 2020 2nd for a high 3rd (3.1). Just wasnt sure if I would rather have the extra 2nd and go for a qb next year

 
Dr. Dan said:
His size is the same as Aaron Jones yet Jones keeps having knee issues himself. Not sure I would have William's that high but he certainly is worth looking at
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I’ve been thinking about putting together a BMI study in relation to RB’s that looks at longevity, workload and durability. Can’t say it will happen anytime soon but ZWK identifying that WR’s have a real big deficiency at less than 26 BMI was a real big eye opener. Guys with talent (Paul Richardson, John Brown) I could go back and see them only have stretches of success marred largely by inability to stay healthy. Dante Pettis and MVS are candidates I am avoiding or moving high due to it.

Edit to add: I did a quick glance at Aaron Jones BMI, he’s bigger than Adrian Peterson on that scale. I think you know better than anyone that injuries are tricky and if repetitive is when it becomes a much larger issue in the grand scale. Warrick Dunn, Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead all had long, highly productive careers... I try to be careful about what is deemed as “small”. There have been a lot of “small” backs that have won fantasy titles.

 
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Also, I’m sort of anticipating both Williams and Thompson go later than round three in the NFL draft. Even if there is a cult around them I’m guessing their value will be reasonable compared to where I’ll want to get them.

 
UCLA TE Caleb Wilson finished tied with Irv Smith Jr. for the most yards per route run (2.56) of the NFL Combine-invited tight ends.

Irv Smith Jr. is considered by most draft analysts as a top-three tight end prospect in the 2019 NFL Draft, but Wilson (6'4/233) is arguably being slept on when it comes to projecting his receiving ability at the next level. As a redshirt junior, Wilson had 60 catches and 965 receiving yards, which both led the NFL Combine invitees. Even if Wilson isn't seen as an NFL-caliber blocker -- he's only 233 pounds -- there's a chance he slides into the latter part of Day 2 if he tests well at the upcoming Underwear Olympics.

SOURCE: PFF College on Twitter

Feb 17, 2019, 4:40 PM
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NFL.com's Lance Zierlein said Texas Tech WR Antoine Wesley has "the best combination of focus, hand-eye coordination, and hands of any wide receiver" in the 2019 NFL Draft.

That's high praise from Mr. Zierlein and it's easy to see those traits on film, but here are the issues with Wesley's draft profile. He only has one year of production, and he's very thin (6'5/200) for how tall he is. However, Wesley is still going to be drafted -- he's on the Day 2/3 borderline -- and there's a path to NFL upside. During his junior season, Wesley averaged 10.8 yards on his 131 targets (1,440 receiving yards) while hauling in nine touchdowns.

SOURCE: Lance Zierlein on Twitter

Feb 17, 2019, 4:06 PM
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NFL.com's Lance Zierlein said Texas A&M RB Trayveon Williams "might be" the best pass blocking running back in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Williams (5'9/200) went to Twitter to declare himself as the top pass blocker in the class and encouraged draft analysts to "pull up this year's tape." Zierlein, of course, did grind the tape and walked away thinking that Williams is among the top of the class in that category, even as an undersized back. But it doesn't stop there. Williams set a Texas A&M school record with 1,760 rushing yards and caught 27 passes in 2018, leading him to the second most yards from scrimmage among the NFL Combine-invited running backs. He's earned a Day 2 selection, but he was recently mocked to Round 5 by Bleacher Report's Matt Miller.

SOURCE: Lance Zierlein on Twitter

Feb 17, 2019, 3:52 PM
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The Draft Network's Joe Marino mocked Georgia TE Isaac Nauta to Round 3.

Nauta (6'4/240) is one of the more polarizing tight end prospects in the class because of a discrepancy between his talent and on-field production. However, this is the case for a lot of tight ends entering the draft because college teams tend to not use tight ends heavily as receivers. During his junior year, Nauta posted a 30-430-3 receiving line on just 35 targets. His 12.3 yards per target are the most out of the 21 NFL Combine-invited tight ends, but his 2.1 receptions per game were just 18th. If Nauta tests well at the NFL Combine, then he's looking at a Day 2 selection.

SOURCE: The Draft Network

Feb 17, 2019, 3:16 PM
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The Athletic's Dane Brugler says Texas A&M TE Jace Sternberger offers "terrific down-the-seam value."

Sternberger (6'4/250) had a 20+ yard reception in 12-of-13 games, led the Combine-invited tight ends in touchdown rate (12.8%), and was second in yards per reception (17.3), so there's an obvious path to a pass-catching role in the NFL. However, Sternberger isn't expected to steal the show at the NFL Combine, so he's not being viewed in the same light as the Tier 1 tight ends -- T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, and Irv Smith. Last week, NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah predicted that the former JUCO tight end would be drafted in Round 3.

SOURCE: Dane Brugler on Twitter

Feb 17, 2019, 2:38 PM
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The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes Wake Forest WR Greg Dortch will be drafted between Round 4 and Round 6 in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Dortch (5'9/170) has a chance to carve out an NFL career as a slot receiver and returner, but his size will apparently prevent him from being a Day 2 selection. A few weeks ago, Bleacher Report's Matt Miller mocked Dortch to the last round, providing further evidence that Dortch is a Day 3 prospect. As a redshirt sophomore, Dortch provided an 89-1,078-8 receiving line as the Demon Deacon's best offensive player and his return skills drew comparisons to "TyFreak" Hill. Of course, Dortch would be a first-rounder if he actually was comparable to Hill.

SOURCE: Dane Brugler on Twitter

Feb 17, 2019, 2:24 PM
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Per Pro Football Focus, Ohio State WR Parris Campbell led the Big 10 in yards per route run.

Campbell (6'1/208) averaged 3.47 yards per route run, besting Minnesota WR Tyler Johnson, Ohio State's K.J Hill, Nebraska's JD Spielman, and Purdue's Rondale Moore. Campbell's draft stock is all over the place with Bleacher Report's Matt Miller projecting him to be selected in the early second round while The Draft Network's Trevor Sikkema mocked him in Round 6. The upcoming NFL Scouting Combine should give us more clarity on where the speedster will be selected in the NFL Draft.

SOURCE: Pro Football Focus on Twitter

Feb 17, 2019, 12:04 PM
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Texas State TE Keenen Brown finished with the second-best Pro Football Focus grade among tight ends.

Brown (6'3/250) finished with the highest team share of receptions among the NFL Combine invitees after posting a 51-577-5 receiving line for the Bobcats. Despite coming out of a small school, Brown has earned buzz in the early portion of #DraftSZN because of his receiving skills and a quality NFL Combine could push him into Round 3. If not, Brown is expected to be selected with a Day 3 pick.

SOURCE: Austin Gayle on Twitter

Feb 17, 2019, 5:28 PM
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LSU TE Foster Moreau had a 133.3 passer rating when targeted, which was third in the SEC among tight ends with at least 25 targets.

Moreau (6'4/250) wasn't used often as a passer -- he only saw 30 targets across 10 games -- but he made the most of his few targets. In fact, the only SEC tight ends ahead of him in passer rating when targeted are high-end NFL prospects Irv Smith Jr. and Isaac Nauta. Despite the high-end passer rating when targeted, most of Moreau's value as a prospect comes as a blocker. Considered among the top blockers in the class, Moreau is expected to be a Day 3 selection.

SOURCE: PFF College on Twitter

Feb 17, 2019, 4:55 PM
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Bojang0301 said:
I’ve been thinking about putting together a BMI study in relation to RB’s that looks at longevity, workload and durability. Can’t say it will happen anytime soon but ZWK identifying that WR’s have a real big deficiency at less than 26 BMI was a real big eye opener. Guys with talent (Paul Richardson, John Brown) I could go back and see them only have stretches of success marred largely by inability to stay healthy. Dante Pettis and MVS are candidates I am avoiding or moving high due to it.

Edit to add: I did a quick glance at Aaron Jones BMI, he’s bigger than Adrian Peterson on that scale. I think you know better than anyone that injuries are tricky and if repetitive is when it becomes a much larger issue in the grand scale. Warrick Dunn, Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead all had long, highly productive careers... I try to be careful about what is deemed as “small”. There have been a lot of “small” backs that have won fantasy titles.
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Reach out to Bri, he’s study BMI for years. IIRC it’s Bri who’s big on BMI.

Tex

 
I think that weight is more important than BMI for RBs, although both matter. (For WRs, BMI seems to be much more important than weight.)

You can see how I rate RBs based on their size here. It's based on looking at historical data, but the formulas that it uses are just things that I made up rather than being the output of a statistical method. I think it has basically the right shape, and is a good enough approximation so that it's the main thing I use to rate RBs based on their size.

 
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The Athletic's Dane Brugler said West Virginia TE Trevon Wesco will be a Day 3 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Wesco (6'3/270) was used sparingly at West Virginia with wide receiver prospects Gary Jennings and David Sills hogging the looks, but he made the most of his looks, finishing second in yards per target (12.1) among tight ends invited to the NFL Combine this season. Wesco also caught 26-of-30 targets, which led to the highest Marginal Efficiency in the 2019 TE draft class. Since he wasn't used heavily, his NFL Combine results will largely dictate how high he goes in the draft.

SOURCE: Dane Brugler on Twitter

Feb 18, 2019, 7:21 PM
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Pro Football Focus' Jordan Plocher wrote on social media that Samford WR Kelvin McKnight is the small-school prospect he would target if he were an NFL GM.

McKnight (5'8/186) finished out his career at Samford posting back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, including a career-best 100-1453-9 receiving line for the most recent campaign. A probable slot receiver at the next level -- that's where he most often operated during his time with the Bulldogs -- McKnight also offers some intrigue as a potential punt returner. We'll check back in with the wideout after Samford's pro day marks are released. That pro day is scheduled for March 7.

SOURCE: Jordan Plocher on Twitter

Feb 21, 2019, 5:13 PM
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