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[Dynasty] 2025 NFL Draft Class (2 Viewers)

How hard is everyone buying into the "deepest RB class of all-time" narrative? The hive mind right now seems to be that there's a RB bonanza to be had in Day 3 of the NFL Draft / late 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks of dynasty rookie drafts are at a premium this year.

I find myself on the outside looking in of this prevailing sentiment. I've previously leveraged 2nd, 3rds, and 4ths (seemingly the "money" picks this year) in order to get three selections in the 1st round of a 1QB (1.3, 1.5, 1.12). This was back when the prevailing wisdom was that the top of this RB class was supposed to be a can't miss, and a great year to reload at the position.

It feels like all I hear now is Jeanty and then just a bunch of "okay" options that you wouldn't feel great about using an early or mid-1st rookie pick on. You could, but it's just a really devalued year if you're holding the 3rd or 5th with the down WR class, combined with just okay 1st rnd rb prospects after Jeanty. Maybe that's harsh, there's certainly individual talking heads that are fans of Hampton, Henderson, Judkins, and Johnson. If there seems to be a consensus darling in the back of the 1st round right now it's Skattebo. However, all of these guys have warts, will be team dependent, or in some cases credible analysts are flat out predicting that they'll flop as 1st round dynasty rookie picks.

However, in the 2nd, 3rd, even 4th round of rookie drafts, what a feast! Guys drafted in the 5th, 6th, 7th round of the NFL that would have gone 3rd or 4th round any other year. Loaded with prospects nearly as good as the headliners that aren't named Jeanty. Are the sharks really buying into this? Are there really 20 RBs about to be drafted in Day 3 that will be thought of as the "next man up" in their NFL backfield?

It's probably not too late for me to trade a 1st for the best package of 2nds and 3rds I can get, but it kind of feels like a panic move at this point. I'm skeptical that every 5th round RB selected is going to be the next big thing waiting to happen. Each one comes at the cost of a roster spot. Are they really going to be significantly better prospects than guys like Bigsby, Miller, Spears, Tucker, Pierce, and McLaughlin, occupying the bottom of my RB room? Am I confident that there will probably be at least one RB in each of the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and UDFA that will have some token value for dynasty? Sure, I'll buy that. But if it's really names upon names of immediate contributors or even future starters, why didn't more eligible backs declare in last year's weaker class?

Luckily, my RB poor team has until the August rookie draft to figure it out. If I had to draft now in .5 PPR 1-QB, I'm thinking:

1.3 Henderson (or Hampton)

1.5 Hunter (or Judkins) -- Would be a shame to pass on Judkins because he would fill a huge need even with the 1.3 pick, but it's feeling more and more like Hunter is a talent that can't be ignored if WR first. Really, can see a scenario where I'm praying that he falls to me at the 1.3 in August, and I'm happy with Judkins or whatever RB that falls to the 1.5.

1.12 -- would be ecstatic for Egbuka, Burden, or Skattebo. Might be willing to clean up Warren or Loveland as trade bait. Rooting for Neal, Harvey, or Tuten hype to be an option here.

2.3 (pending) -- feels like the only spot to somewhat tap into the late round RB depth, probably taking my pick of the guy generating the most camp buzz. Best option of Neal, Harvey, Tuten, Sampson, Gordon, Brashard Smith, Giddens, Blue, Martinez, or any of the other two-dozen options. It would probably make sense to trade down in the 2nd to pick up a 3rd if available. Can't sleep on the possibility of a Tre Harris or one of the 2nd/3rd tier WRs emerging at this spot.
 
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sushinsky4tsar said:
How hard is everyone buying into the "deepest RB class of all-time" narrative?
Click to expand...
Qualifying 'deepest' is important. 2008 was also deep, but from a different perspective as this one, as that was top-heavy. The second tier of this crop is strong, but not to the level of that draft. This group is a lot like 2017, but with even more bodies in tiers 3 and 4. What I'm curious about is what that does to their collective prices come Friday. Type of back matters from one org to the next, but is it justifiable if I bypass a quality late 3rd round option knowing I'll get 95% of that guy a round or two later?
 
MAC_32 said:
sushinsky4tsar said:
How hard is everyone buying into the "deepest RB class of all-time" narrative?
Click to expand...
Qualifying 'deepest' is important. 2008 was also deep, but from a different perspective as this one, as that was top-heavy. The second tier of this crop is strong, but not to the level of that draft. This group is a lot like 2017, but with even more bodies in tiers 3 and 4. What I'm curious about is what that does to their collective prices come Friday. Type of back matters from one org to the next, but is it justifiable if I bypass a quality late 3rd round option knowing I'll get 95% of that guy a round or two later?
Click to expand...

"Deepest of all-time" was intended more for superlative, but yeah, the consensus seems to be that there's a ton of guys that will be drafted on Day 3 that will be worth stashing on dynasty rosters for some time [despite a lot of opportunity cost doing this in practice]. Keep in mind that I'm definitely coming from a FOMO perspective based on the picks I'm either holding or not holding, but I'm definitely not getting a warm and fuzzzy feeling listening to a lot of analysts on the prospect of going RB, RB at 1.3 & 1.5.

For example, Bloom's recent top 12 Dynasty podcast starts with Jeanty in his own stratosphere. Followed by Hunter at #2. Followed by Tet, Egbuka, and Burden in the next tier, despite not being any more bullish on these receivers than a lot of the other assessments out there. THEN, they address the glut of Hampton/Henderson/Johnson/Judkins as a group. Bloom concedes Hampton is probably the 1.2 in 1QB drafts if he goes in the 1st round. But also says this is the year to trade down if you're stuck at the 1.3. Meanwhile, comparisons of Javonte Williams pre-injury are given for Hampton, Jamaal Charles for Henderson, and Bloom mentions that he might like Judkins more than any of these in a vacuum. I get that there's no Nabers-like talent at the 1.3 this year, but all of this sounds pretty good to my ears based on what I was plugging into RB spots last year. Especially with the potential intrigue of Hunter in one of these spots.

I definitely think there's something to the devaluation of where these guys get drafted based on the depth of the talent pool. A local radio personality said something yesterday to the effect of guys getting drafted in the 6th round this year would have gone in round 3 in previous years (he was advocating for Ollie Gordon). I'm willing to buy a solid round / round and a half discount due to this year's depth. However, I'm not buying a 3 round discount. By this same logic, shouldn't this say an awful lot about what Hampton, Henderson, and Judkins have going for them if teams are willing to invest a 2nd round pick despite the depth of options in the later rounds?

Am I nuts for being excited to add a Henderson + Judkins to a fantasy backfield that had CMC and nothing else last year? Especially, if the opportunity to swap one for Hunter's upside might be there if he's primarily WR? Listening to some of the podcasts lately feels like, go trade one of those picks to the first team dumb enough to offer their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
 
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sushinsky4tsar said:
MAC_32 said:
sushinsky4tsar said:
How hard is everyone buying into the "deepest RB class of all-time" narrative?
Click to expand...
Qualifying 'deepest' is important. 2008 was also deep, but from a different perspective as this one, as that was top-heavy. The second tier of this crop is strong, but not to the level of that draft. This group is a lot like 2017, but with even more bodies in tiers 3 and 4. What I'm curious about is what that does to their collective prices come Friday. Type of back matters from one org to the next, but is it justifiable if I bypass a quality late 3rd round option knowing I'll get 95% of that guy a round or two later?
Click to expand...

"Deepest of all-time" was intended more for superlative, but yeah, the consensus seems to be that there's a ton of guys that will be drafted on Day 3 that will be worth stashing on dynasty rosters for some time [despite a lot of opportunity cost doing this in practice]. Keep in mind that I'm definitely coming from a FOMO perspective based on the picks I'm either holding or not holding, but I'm definitely not getting a warm and fuzzzy feeling listening to a lot of analysts on the prospect of going RB, RB at 1.3 & 1.5.

For example, Bloom's recent top 12 Dynasty podcast starts with Jeanty in his own stratosphere. Followed by Hunter at #2. Followed by Tet, Egbuka, and Burden in the next tier, despite not being any more bullish on these receivers than a lot of the other assessments out there. THEN, they address the glut of Hampton/Henderson/Johnson/Judkins as a group. Bloom concedes Hampton is probably the 1.2 in 1QB drafts if he goes in the 1st round. But also says this is the year to trade down if you're stuck at the 1.3. Meanwhile, comparisons of Javonte Williams pre-injury are given for Hampton, Jamaal Charles for Henderson, and Bloom mentions that he might like Judkins more than any of these in a vacuum. I get that there's no Nabers-like talent at the 1.3 this year, but all of this sounds pretty good to my ears based on what I was plugging into RB spots last year. Especially with the potential intrigue of Hunter in one of these spots.

I definitely think there's something to the devaluation of where these guys get drafted based on the depth of the talent pool. A local radio personality said something yesterday to the effect of guys getting drafted in the 6th round this year would have gone in round 3 in previous years (he was advocating for Ollie Gordon). I'm willing to buy a solid round / round and a half discount due to this year's depth. However, I'm not buying a 3 round discount. By this same logic, shouldn't this say an awful lot about what Hampton, Henderson, and Judkins have going for them if teams are willing to invest a 2nd round pick despite the depth of options in the later rounds?

Am I nuts for being excited to add a Henderson + Judkins to a fantasy backfield that had CMC and nothing else last year? Especially, if the opportunity to swap one for Hunter's upside might be there if he's primarily WR? Listening to some of the podcasts lately feels like, go trade one of those picks to the first team dumb enough to offer their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
Click to expand...

In order of bolded:
1. I don't see that consensus. While I may dip my toes more into day 3 backs than I have in years past, history shows us that RBs drafted in round 4 and later in dynasty rarely pay off. The charts I use have a 24% hit rate of those backs putting up 1 season of RB24 or higher in their career. They have an 8% hit rate of putting up 2+ seasons of RB24 or higher. So while I definitely think this is a very deep RB draft class and the RBs we'll find going round 4 and later in the NFL draft will likely be a higher talent level than normal; draft capital is still king with projecting fantasy outcomes and one of the highest correlations. I'd say pick one or two of your favorite guys who have good landing spots on day 3 and just snag them, but don't overreach in capital or expend too much roster space on what are really long shots. What I will say is once you get to round 4, there isn't much difference in hit rates between those guys and round 5 or even round 6. So once you're on day 3, lean more towards your personal preference and other factors like landing spot, path to work, scheme, etc. I'm sure there's a good chance the draft will crush my hopes and dreams, but I'm of the (minority) opinion 3 backs could go in the 1st round, and 8-10 could be day 2 picks. If that happens, then yes, this class will be exploding in fantasy drafts. If it doesn't, I'll have to readjust my evaluations on some of the tier 3/4 guys and move them down my ranks.

2. Yes, IMO it definitely gives an extra boost to RBs taken in the first three rounds that teams picked them with that higher capital over waiting to just take what's leftover in a deep class. In many circumstances I can see myself taking round 3 RBs I like over round 2 WRs this year, where in previous years the draft capital difference would sway me more.

3. No. I'd be super excited to add either of those backs. People can explain statistics in multiple ways to prove varying, and often opposing, opinions. But I truly believe the few metrics boxes that Henderson and Judkins don't tick (which causes some guys, especially analytics guys, to ding them a bit and not consider them closer to Jeanty) can largely be explained by them cannibalizing each other in what was pretty much an offensive juggernaut this year at OSU. The fact they got the receiving work they even did this year considering the receiving options on the team is wild to me. And anyone questioning Judkins efficiency, wiggle, tackle breaking ability hasn't watched any games he played in before 2024 IMO. He exploded as a true freshman at Ole Miss, stealing the starting job from Junior incumbent Zach Evans. Isolating his metrics from that season alone elevate him to an elite prospect, and even averaging them in with his time at OSU gives him enough of a bump to remove any potential red flags. I'm not as high on Henderson as others, but I'd still happily take him as early as 1.03 with a prime landing spot, and can't imagine myself ever letting him get past 1.07 or so in rookie drafts. I'm also outside consensus by not being as high on him, so I'm likely wrong and should be higher haha. Regardless, Henderson and Judkins are at least a full tier, if not more, higher than most of the other RBs in that class. I happen to also believe Skattebo is (but again, I'm more on an island with this take). I think those two are only behind Bijan as prospects of the past 3 years, and would have them in a tier with Gibbs and Hall (ahead of Brooks and Walker).
 
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Great post, @pinkstapler . Glad to see some others are keeping a more measured approach to the pool of riches that await us from RB10 to 30 of this class. I'm immediately reminded of how excited I once was to hold the likes of Kylin Hill, John Kelly, Kenneth Dixon, and Kendall Hunter at the bottom of my roster. I think the excitement for a lot of these guys will instantly fade when people see just how buried they are in their new backfield. A half-dozen will get pretty nice landing spots. A few of those will make noise during camp and those are the ones that will get pushed into the back of round 1 or early round 2 of August dynasty drafts. Beyond that, pick a couple of your favorites and hold on as long as you can is probably the best actionable advice.

FWIW, the KTR "hive mind" rankings seems to be playing it pretty cool at this point:

Jeanty RB3
Hampton RB6
Henderson RB11
Judkins RB16
K Johnson RB20
Skattebo RB27
Sampson RB47
Neal RB48
Etienne RB51
Gordon RB54
Tuten RB60
Harvey RB62
Martinez RB69
Giddens RB70
Blue RB86
J James RB90
B Smith RB116
D Edwards RB117
L Allen RB120
Marks RB132

If anything, that's a pretty rosy outlook for RBs 2 through 6 of this class, and pretty grounded from Sampson down (for now).
 
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Dane Brugler
Four of "my guys" in this draft class. Prospects I'm guessing I'll be higher on than most (based on the tape):

Armand Membou, OT/G, Missouri
Mike Green, Edge, Marshall
Carson Schwesinger, LB, UCLA
Jacob Parrish, CB, Kansas St.
Click to expand...

Three months later, those four are still among my favorites in this class. Five others I would add to a "my guys" team:

RB Jordan James, Oregon
WR Jaylin Noel, Iowa State
TE Terrance Ferguson, Oregon
OG Dylan Fairchild, Georgia
DE Barryn Sorrell, Texas
Click to expand...
 
sushinsky4tsar said:
Great post, @pinkstapler . Glad to see some others are keeping a more measured approach to the pool of riches that await us from RB10 to 30 of this class. I'm immediately reminded of how excited I once was to hold the likes of Kylin Hill, John Kelly, Kenneth Dixon, and Kendall Hunter at the bottom of my roster. I think the excitement for a lot of these guys will instantly fade when people see just how buried they are in their new backfield. A half-dozen will get pretty nice landing spots. A few of those will make noise during camp and those are the ones that will get pushed into the back of round 1 or early round 2 of August dynasty drafts. Beyond that, pick a couple of your favorites and hold on as long as you can is probably the best actionable advice.

FWIW, the KTR "hive mind" rankings seems to be playing it pretty cool at this point:

Jeanty RB3
Hampton RB6
Henderson RB11
Judkins RB16
K Johnson RB20
Skattebo RB27
Sampson RB47
Neal RB48
Etienne RB51
Gordon RB54
Tuten RB60
Harvey RB62
Martinez RB69
Giddens RB70
Blue RB86
J James RB90
B Smith RB116
D Edwards RB117
L Allen RB120
Marks RB132

If anything, that's a pretty rosy outlook for RBs 2 through 6 of this class, and pretty grounded from Sampson down (for now).
Click to expand...
Yeah I can't really argue much with how those ranks are plotted out. The only one I'd put actual money on being lower than it should is Skattebo. I actually do have two cash bets in on him; that he's one of the first three RBs drafted, and that he goes round 2. But one of the major factors of my gambling is liking the odds, so the fact he's often slotted as RB6 and a late 3rd/early 4th round pick is what made the bets enticing. I do think the NFL will like Cam more than fantasy consensus does due to intangibles; comes off like a real coaches dream RB to me and his tool box is one desired by just about every team though it would relegate him to a role player in more scenarios than not. Meanwhile I personally think he could be a 3 down top 10RB with a good landing spot.

I do imagine, if the draft goes more the way I think than the way consensus is projecting; that RBs like Sampson, Neal, Giddens, and Martinez in particular jump in rankings about 10-15 spots. But RB40 vs RB60 still won't move the needle for us much in fantasy so it's not super impactful even if it does work out that way.
 
FIO predraft composite rookie rankings based on superflex dynasty as of 4/23/2025. Averages and standard deviation (SD) exclude maximum and minimum value. The top four will likely have the draft capital, then I think it will get interesting. Hunter moving up lately - how much WR he plays is the key.

High variance players - Henderson, Egbuka, Noel, Higgins, Milroe, Giddens

Rank SF Player PosRnk count Avg SD

20 1.01 Ashton Jeanty RB03 16 21.4 4.91

44 1.02 Tetairoa McMillan WR16 16 46.2 5.56
48 1.03 Omarion Hampton RB10 16 48.7 10.76
56 1.04 Cam Ward QB21 16 57.4 15.69

71 1.05 Quinshon Judkins RB17 16 73.1 18.47
72 1.06 Treyveon Henderson RB18 16 74.6 24.20
77 1.07 Luther Burden WR32 16 78.9 13.36
78 1.08 Travis Hunter WR33 16 78.9 15.05
79 1.09 Shedeur Sanders QB24 16 79.6 14.15
83 1.10 Emeka Egbuka WR34 16 83.1 20.01
84 1.11 Tyler Warren TE06 16 83.7 14.31
86 1.12 Kaleb Johnson RB20 16 84.8 11.79

90 2.01 Matthew Golden WR36 16 90.5 14.50
96 2.02 Colston Loveland TE07 16 97.3 10.74

107 2.03 Jaxson Dart QB29 15 106.9 17.84

125 2.04 Tre Harris WR51 16 128.5 17.03
131 2.05 Cam Scattebo RB36 16 136.1 22.25

138 2.06 Jaylin Noel WR56 15 144.1 39.31
139 2.07 Dylan Sampson RB38 16 144.6 19.17
140 2.08 Devin Neal RB39 15 147.4 21.00
141 2.09 Jayden Higgins WR57 14 147.9 35.77
143 2.10 Elic Ayomanor WR59 16 151.0 29.94
145 2.11 Jalen Milroe QB32 13 151.9 43.22
150 2.12 RJ Harvey RB41 16 157.2 24.31
153 3.01 Bhayshul Tuten RB43 14 160.1 29.76
158 3.02 Isaiah Bond WR65 15 163.1 27.51
162 3.03 Jalen Royals WR67 15 165.6 28.81

174 3.04 Ollie Gordon RB49 14 176.9 32.35
175 3.05 Jack Bech WR72 14 180.2 32.20
182 3.06 DJ Giddens RB51 12 182.7 41.29
184 3.07 Damien Martinez RB53 14 183.8 30.09
186 3.08 Elijah Arroyo TE22 14 186.1 27.46

193 3.09 Harold Fannin Jr TE24 14 194.6 30.19
199 3.10 Mason Taylor TE25 14 200.0 25.97
205 3.11 Xavier Restrepo WR84 13 206.2 25.07
206 3.12 Brashard Smith RB60 11 207.3 25.99
209 4.01 Tory Horton WR86 11 212.4 27.40
211 4.02 Jordan James RB62 12 214.6 23.93
212 4.03 Trevor Etienne RB63 10 215.1 27.06
214 4.04 Tai Felton WR88 11 216.3 22.61
215 4.05 Tez Johnson WR89 9 216.6 26.69
218 4.06 Kyle Williams WR90 7 219.6 28.93
219 4.07 Quinn Ewers QB37 5 220.1 35.48
222 4.08 Savion Williams WR91 10 221.3 23.06
233 4.09 Tyler Shough QB40 4 226.3 29.90
237 4.10 Terrance Ferguson TE33 9 227.9 16.81
240 4.11 Tahj Brooks RB70 6 230.4 16.32
253 4.12 Oronde Gadsden TE37 6 234.2 13.00
 
miqws said:
FIO predraft composite rookie rankings based on superflex dynasty as of 4/23/2025. Averages and standard deviation (SD) exclude maximum and minimum value. The top four will likely have the draft capital, then I think it will get interesting. Hunter moving up lately - how much WR he plays is the key.

High variance players - Henderson, Egbuka, Noel, Higgins, Milroe, Giddens

Rank SF Player PosRnk count Avg SD


145 2.11 Jalen Milroe QB32 13 151.9 43.22
Click to expand...

I get that the opportunity cost is legit and there's a high chance that it's a wasted pick and roster spot, but I'm actually starting to think it might be worth taking a swing with a late 2nd in 1QB. In SF, I gladly pass on Ward early in the 1st and take my shot at an even higher ceiling in round 2.
 
Initial take on Travis Hunter to the Jags instead of the Browns?

Slightly bummed to be honest. Liked the Jeudy-Tillman receiving room a bit more than BTJ-Gabe Davis. Hopefully, Jags are every bit as in on him at the WR position. They paid a healthy price. Did they pay so much that they're actually in on 60%+ on the defensive side?

Definitely rooting for a primary WR and "situational" CB from a fantasy standpoint. Definitely feels like a true dual role makes more sense in Jacksonville than it did in Cleveland.

If you wanted him mid-late 1st with the hopes of his career steadily shifting more towards WR, it's great. If you were looking for a rookie WR prospect so sexy that he demands the 1.2 or 1.3, I think that probably took a hit.

Obviously, love the football player. Can't fault the Browns for taking that package either.
 
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Milroe is worth a flyer in my opinion. The rushing potential is elite. May not be a blue chip QB but perhaps a FF asset. On Hunter I am also slightly bummed but I am willing to rely on the spent draft capital that he will be used at WR enough.
 
Regardless of landing spot, gotta love the round 1 draft capital on just about all the projected 1st round dynasty guys. Tet #8, Loveland #10, Warren #14, Egbuka #19, and BOOM!! the Omarion hate just took a big hit at #22. Let's get a third 1st round RB, please!!

Love ya, Matt but you're not talking me into the Chargers just drafted a meaningless grunt rb to carry Najee's jock at the 1.22.
 
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