Pictus Cat
Footballguy
OP, can you tell us your philosophy on NFL TE development for dynasty purposes?
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[Dynasty] Aaron Hernandez (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter NorrisB
- Start date
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I think we can pretty much put the OP's theory to bed with this post. I was in a startup dynasty draft over the past week and when considering AH, I went and checked other top TEs rookie stats and this is basically the conclusion that I came to. He had a better rookie year than every other fantasy relevant TE in the league. Rookie TEs who put up numbers, especially one who played almost the entire season at age 20, are extremely rare. Furthermore, in 1.5 PPR for TE, he averaged over 11 ppg, more than Gronk and only 2 ppg less than Vernon Davis (another guy who got better in his 2nd, 3rd, 4th years). Anyway, I grabbed him late in the 9th round as my TE2 (behind Jimmy Graham) after 15 or so other TEs had been taken and think he has big-time future potential.
One more thing to add. He was used almost as a RB at Florida at times. New England experimented with this a little bit last season and every time it worked for 10+ yards.
gianmarco
Footballguy
I don't know enough about NFL defenses to know if this is true or not, but it was pointed out last year that, when NE faced teams that played more man coverage, Hernandez was used more and did better. When teams used more zone coverage, that's when Gronkowski was used and did well. Thus, there was actually a way to somehow predict which TE was in store for a bigger game based on the defense they faced.
Maybe someone that knows more about NFL defenses and what these teams mostly ran can comment on it and compare it to their game logs.
Maybe someone that knows more about NFL defenses and what these teams mostly ran can comment on it and compare it to their game logs.
NorrisB
Footballguy
loose circuits
Footballguy
5 for 61 and TD? Game still isn't over yet?
Native
Footballguy
mr roboto
Footballguy
Thank you for jinxing yourself. It greatly helped my fantasy team.
loose circuits
Footballguy
7 for 103 now, who should I drop him for? Would David Ausberry be a better investment? i just can't have this type of player clogging my roster
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Das Boot
Footballguy
lhucks alias?
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
I presume you're competing in my prognosticator challenge?
DevilDog919
Footballguy
Should we sell high on Brady too, since we are selling high on all of his targets?
mr roboto
Footballguy
Very possible.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I agree.Here's my sell high list:Aaron RodgersAndre JohnsonAdrian Peterson
griff321
Footballguy
Really!?
griff321
Footballguy
LHUCKS
Footballguy
no, not really
Run It Up
Footballguy
Ive never disagreed with your points in topics you have started, but really?I mean, I know hes not gonna have 2 TD and 180+ a game, is the opinion of him returning to form (100+ rec, 1000 yds) really that unpopular?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
depends on what you can get, but that is likely Welker's best game of the year.Welker, as well as some of the other Patriots options may be inconsistent this year...so many mouths to feed.
griff321
Footballguy
Oh right because BB is the type of coach that takes his foot off the gas when he has a massive lead? Or is it Brady is terrible and can't execute? I think you're off here. It's going to be a good year for the pats O.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Never said it wasn't going to be a good year for the Pats O. no team in the history of fantasy football has had two top TEs...I'll stay with history
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
Just like it's not possible for a WR to get 23 TDs in a season. Or for a QB to get 50 TD's in a season. The Patriots do not apply when looking back into history to figure out what is going to happen with the Pats offense. Hernandez is a TE/Hback/#3 WR, and he's Brady's security blanket.
griff321
Footballguy
Abrantes
Footballguy
Hernandez looked phenomenal tonight, and Brady is clearly in sync with him. The leaping catch over Benny Sapp was gorgeous.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
A) It was always possible for Randy to get 23...he is a freakB) Brady getting 50 was possible, but never likely...this is a game of odds, not what's possible
Play the percentages here...trade Hernandez to anyone who is foolish enough to believe this game is indicative of his future production
griff321
Footballguy
That's where we disagree. I feel this example is an outlier and the percentages don't apply as they often don't when it comes to this team. I could be wrong but I guess we'll just have to wait and see if we can get two top 10 TEs on the same team.
Run It Up
Footballguy
I see where you are coming from, but the league is in transition, Tight Ends as a position are being completely changed.The utility of being able to run two good TEs in a pass heavy offense cannot be ignored, with an elite QB its exponentially more so imo. The missmatches are obvious, Gronkowski is physically dominating - hes one of the best all around TEs ive ever seen, him and Aaron are only 2nd year players sky is the limit in the patriots system.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
No problem, as long as you understand you're pullling for something that has never happened before.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
That's not true, if you understand the truth of him playing WR in addition to him playing TE.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Its simply a qualification issue.Take the Colts of just last year. If Clark/Tamme was the #2 TE for a combined 1000 yards + 7TDs.
You then had WR #1 as Wayne and WR#2 as Garcon with 2100 combined yards and 12 TDs.
Followed by their #3 WR (which is what Hernandez does) with 649 yards and 8TDs.
All he needed was the position qualification and you would have had the #2 TE and the #5 TE.
griff321
Footballguy
Brilliant example and I definitely think that Hernandez has Collie like talent.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
No.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I'm trying to be kind here, but you are out of your mind.Your post presumes that both Hernandez and Gronkowski are the same player. They are not. Hernandez is more of a WR in this offense than a true TE. New England does not have a lot of vertical threats at the WR position, and it appears that Hernandez helps stretch the field.
killrobotkill
Footballguy
In my league (10 yds/pt, 6 pts/TD) last year, Hernandez was the #8 TE and Gronkowski was #9.
The Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Totally agreed.Honestly could be witnessing a new type of offense being developed in New England. Nothing to really compare it to right now, people have said mid 90s GB with Jackson and Chumura but this New England offense feels a lot different and we could finally be seeing the reason BB has been drafting and usually missing on multiple TEs a year in the draft. He finally hit big with both Gronk and Hernandez and now is implementing his desired offense.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Aaron Hernandez isn't used as a TE though - he's used more like a bog slot WR. If the Pats run two TE sets as their base offense it isn't all that hard to imagine.'LHUCKS said:
FunkyTeaParty
Footballguy
People that tell me Hernandez is limited because of Gronkowski remind me of people that told me Larry Fitz was limited because of Anquan Boldin.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't buy this argument at all.The other thing people are missing when they say sell "high" in dynasty is that Aaron Hernandez is 21 years old...he's not a finished product. His potential is through the roof.
It looks like the Pats top 4 targets in some order will be Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Branch.
The same way that Wayne, Collie, Garcon and Clark have had good value when Peyton has the Colts offense humming, all 4 of these guys could have great fantasy value for the Pats.
While Hernandez may not put up crazy numbers every week, he's a TE. He's going to get at least a couple catches every week and he'll have enough of these 6-100-1 type games to finish very high in the rankings at the end of the year. How many TEs have potential for regular 20+ point games and are a safe bet to catch at least 3 passes every week? maybe 5 or 6? How many of those 5 or 6 are 21 years old?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah, don't let the facts get in the way of your preconceived notions.
I'd rather sell the guy that had 7 targets, not the one that had 10.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I don't think anyone expects Hernandez to do that every game (no TE is going for 1,600 yards and 16 TDs), but he should put up good enough numbers to be a top 10 TE. He'll have his dud weeks, like ALL players do - I am sure the dissenters will be here to shout about it when he does - but the potential to put up fantastic games like last night is very much there. Basically, the Patriots offense is gonna be a machine this year, and if you have one of the top targets, you ride him all year. That means Welker and both TEs.
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loose circuits
Footballguy
I keep benching this guy for Vernon Davis and I shouldn't.
Das Boot
Footballguy
Welcome to FBGs and the Shark Pool!I think you'll find, for the most part and with just a couple of consistent exceptions, that the advice is good and will help your team.Again, welcome!
ThePittbully
Footballguy
He's probably the best WR on the Pats roster, if you're selling on him you're making a big mistake. He's a match-up nightmare, most safeties and corners have trouble covering him, forget about LB's. The only downside on him that I've seen is the occasional mental error and his tendency to fumble.The funniest part of this thread is Norris is STILL telling people to sell. You were wrong, eat the crow and move on
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I could be wrong but I think I saw him hurt it after a catch while they were in the hurry up; he continued to play 2 or 3 more plays and then we didn't see him again. If it is the play I think it was it didn't look like anything much when he went down (while being tackled).
GregStarling
Footballguy
Before the today's game, I traded him for a 1st round draft pick next year (Dynasty - should be a top 3 pick). He is very good, but with Witten on my roster, I felt comfortable moving him. I think that is about his value right now, which is really high for a TE IMO.
