Going Against The Grain - Who You Got? (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

On the opposite of the Cousins coin, lots of players are inflated just because they're cool. I always felt like Marshawn Lynch was over valued in just about every draft because everyone fawned over him. It's not his fault, but I thought his value was always inflated for non football reasons.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Cousins is the perfect example of the "boring discount" . The dude, personality wise, is Ned Flanders. But he has a legit love of football, has great weapons around him, a weaker defense, so I'll ride that discount all the way to the Leftorium (championship).

 

[FFWhiskey]

Cousins is the perfect example of the "boring discount" . The dude, personality wise, is Ned Flanders. But he has a legit love of football, has great weapons around him, a weaker defense, so I'll ride that discount all the way to the Leftorium (championship).

I started busting up up laughing when you mentioned Leftorium.


"Stupid sexy Flanders."

 

[FFWhiskey]

On the opposite of the Cousins coin, lots of players are inflated just because they're cool. I always felt like Marshawn Lynch was over valued in just about every draft because everyone fawned over him. It's not his fault, but I thought his value was always inflated for non football reasons.

That's kind of how I feel about CeeDee Lamb. I mean don't get me wrong, the dude is a stud, but there's some kind of coolness / HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS factor to his value that guarantees someone will reach for him just slightly above where I feel his value is.


I'd love to roster him this year, but I just don't see it happening. Brandin Cooks though, that's just a WR3/FLEX with WR2 upside written all over him.

 

[rockaction]

I certainly agree that the WR weapons for CAR look weak, but I'm a believer in Bryce who I think will be a quick study and they'll start to understand what they do well with him under center.

I happened to watch Bryce Young against LSU last year recently (I generally don't watch complete collegiate football games in one sitting, but I had a chance to see this) and came away unimpressed. I was also unimpressed when he played the Jets and the Giants. He didn't look good at all. He looked like a too-small rookie without a dynamic arm. Which is fine. Lots of guys with below-average arm strength that look like rookies as rookies. But I would pump the brakes before depending on him in any way -- even tangentially -- for redraft.

 

[Biabreakable]

D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him

I know the advanced metrics say 2022 was a fairly bad year for him. And I believe he's not the greatest pass protector either.

What is your belief in Cooks ability as a pass protector based on?

Pff?

I am a Vikings fan and I have seen Cook block for his QB very well and consistently. Coaches and players have praised him for it.

Then consider Aaron Rodgers taking a pay cut to help enable Cook to sign with the Jets. Seems pretty clear Rodgers wanted to have Cook on the team. Do you think Rodgers would want a RB who was poor in pass protection to watch his back? Rodgers would know if it was an issue.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him

I know the advanced metrics say 2022 was a fairly bad year for him. And I believe he's not the greatest pass protector either.

What is your belief in Cooks ability as a pass protector based on?

Pff?

I am a Vikings fan and I have seen Cook block for his QB very well and consistently. Coaches and players have praised him for it.

Then consider Aaron Rodgers taking a pay cut to help enable Cook to sign with the Jets. Seems pretty clear Rodgers wanted to have Cook on the team. Do you think Rodgers would want a RB who was poor in pass protection to watch his back? Rodgers would know if it was an issue.

I think if you read the rest of the commentary, that POV is fairly reflected.

As for the pass protection comment, it was more a nod to it not being a distinguishable enough feature to take work away from Hall if and when Hall is back at full strength. If he was a Zeke level pass protector, I think that would represent a clear delineation which might earn quite a bit more passing down work no matter Hall's health.

Which is why I have no conclusion on the Jets backfield. Your point is valid...I agree; $7M guaranteed is alot for an insurance policy. Hall has a very limited but spectacular pro resume. The similarities between Cook/Hall at this stage of their careers is uncanny and Cook did struggle his 2nd season coming off the ACL tear not reaching elite level play until he had almost two year distance from the injury. The same could apply to Hall. But we won't know - they've simply significantly widened the margin for error.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

It’s Kittle for me. It always seemed he and Jimmy G were out of sync most the time BUT when any other QB was there he would see a major uptick in production. It may have also coincided with injuries to Kittle, with Jimmy G playing, and Deebo, with other QBs playing, which has been referenced about last season.

Hoping to see Kittle and Kelce/Some new contender breaking each other’s record in quick succession as we saw a few years back

 

[Biabreakable]

D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him

I know the advanced metrics say 2022 was a fairly bad year for him. And I believe he's not the greatest pass protector either.

What is your belief in Cooks ability as a pass protector based on?

Pff?

I am a Vikings fan and I have seen Cook block for his QB very well and consistently. Coaches and players have praised him for it.

Then consider Aaron Rodgers taking a pay cut to help enable Cook to sign with the Jets. Seems pretty clear Rodgers wanted to have Cook on the team. Do you think Rodgers would want a RB who was poor in pass protection to watch his back? Rodgers would know if it was an issue.

I think if you read the rest of the commentary, that POV is fairly reflected.

As for the pass protection comment, it was more a nod to it not being a distinguishable enough feature to take work away from Hall if and when Hall is back at full strength. If he was a Zeke level pass protector, I think that would represent a clear delineation which might earn quite a bit more passing down work no matter Hall's health.

Which is why I have no conclusion on the Jets backfield. Your point is valid...I agree; $7M guaranteed is alot for an insurance policy. Hall has a very limited but spectacular pro resume. The similarities between Cook/Hall at this stage of their careers is uncanny and Cook did struggle his 2nd season coming off the ACL tear not reaching elite level play until he had almost two year distance from the injury. The same could apply to Hall. But we won't know - they've simply significantly widened the margin for error.

That is interesting comparing Halls career arc to Cooks in that they were both injured in their rookie seasons. Something I had not thought about before you bringing it up.

My post was just intended to address Cooks ability in pass protection specifically and nothing else. While I would agree with you he isn't an elite pass protecting RB such as Elliot, I also do not think this is a liability or hole in Cooks game the way some have said it is and then citing Pff as the source of their opinion. That is something I disagree with based on the reasons I mentioned before.

 

[kface]

D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him

I know the advanced metrics say 2022 was a fairly bad year for him. And I believe he's not the greatest pass protector either.

What is your belief in Cooks ability as a pass protector based on?

Pff?

I am a Vikings fan and I have seen Cook block for his QB very well and consistently. Coaches and players have praised him for it.

Then consider Aaron Rodgers taking a pay cut to help enable Cook to sign with the Jets. Seems pretty clear Rodgers wanted to have Cook on the team. Do you think Rodgers would want a RB who was poor in pass protection to watch his back? Rodgers would know if it was an issue.

I think if you read the rest of the commentary, that POV is fairly reflected.

As for the pass protection comment, it was more a nod to it not being a distinguishable enough feature to take work away from Hall if and when Hall is back at full strength. If he was a Zeke level pass protector, I think that would represent a clear delineation which might earn quite a bit more passing down work no matter Hall's health.

Which is why I have no conclusion on the Jets backfield. Your point is valid...I agree; $7M guaranteed is alot for an insurance policy. Hall has a very limited but spectacular pro resume. The similarities between Cook/Hall at this stage of their careers is uncanny and Cook did struggle his 2nd season coming off the ACL tear not reaching elite level play until he had almost two year distance from the injury. The same could apply to Hall. But we won't know - they've simply significantly widened the margin for error.

That is interesting comparing Halls career arc to Cooks in that they were both injured in their rookie seasons. Something I had not thought about before you bringing it up.

My post was just intended to address Cooks ability in pass protection specifically and nothing else. While I would agree with you he isn't an elite pass protecting RB such as Elliot, I also do not think this is a liability or hole in Cooks game the way some have said it is and then citing Pff as the source of their opinion. That is something I disagree with based on the reasons I mentioned before.

I'll just add that Hall may improve as well but one of the knocks on him coming out was his blocking was pretty weak

 

[Stinkin Ref]

way late but I'm warming to Alec Pierce....

 

[Scooby1974]

Purdy is a wildcard for me. He has elite talent around him on both sides of the ball. Not only that, but he put up top 3 stats in that undefeated run last year. I think he flies under the radar and could put up stats. I don't see him being a top 3 QB, but I don't think a top 6-8 finish is out of the question.

 

[Truebluey]

D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him

Which is why I have no conclusion on the Jets backfield. Your point is valid...I agree; $7M guaranteed is alot for an insurance policy. Hall has a very limited but spectacular pro resume. The similarities between Cook/Hall at this stage of their careers is uncanny and Cook did struggle his 2nd season coming off the ACL tear not reaching elite level play until he had almost two year distance from the injury. The same could apply to Hall. But we won't know - they've simply significantly widened the margin for error.

I'm no expert, but I believe Menobrown broke down the Cook contract and less than $2 million is guaranteed. The rest is bonuses if he stays on the roster.

 

[Crazy8s--]

Maybe not Boring, but overlooked. I'm going with Connors

 

[Ministry of Pain]

No 94 in Redraft-PPR
WR 38
Jahan Dotson...In about 10 games or less last year he racked up 35/520/7TDs
No 16th overall pick by Wash and he wasn't drafted just to be a sure set of hands
He is there to stretch the defense and make plays.
a jump from 35 to 60 is not unreasonable if he plays a full 17 games.
60-900-7-8 TDs would put him well above where he is currently being ranked.

There's a sleeper for you to grab as your WR4/5 off the board, should see plenty of time in your line up, cover up bye week issues, maybe a lot more.

 

[Crazy8s--]

I'm a Dotson fan as well. He'll outperform again this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@TheDirtyWord nice thread
You wrote Calvin Ridley (WR18): When I'm looking at the WR rankings, I see the following ranked higher than Ridley.

I would like to point to the guy who was WR12 overall in PPR last year, Christian Kirk
Capt Kirk is going WR30 off the board and just logged 84/1100/8TDs after 993/5TDs his last season in Arizona, this guy is a top 5 Slot WR in the NFL
Sign me up for more and I know Ridley is a good WR and he can take double coverage with him and leave Kirk one on one in the middle of the field to operate, Kirk will have a field day.

 

[Biabreakable]

D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him

Which is why I have no conclusion on the Jets backfield. Your point is valid...I agree; $7M guaranteed is alot for an insurance policy. Hall has a very limited but spectacular pro resume. The similarities between Cook/Hall at this stage of their careers is uncanny and Cook did struggle his 2nd season coming off the ACL tear not reaching elite level play until he had almost two year distance from the injury. The same could apply to Hall. But we won't know - they've simply significantly widened the margin for error.

I'm no expert, but I believe Menobrown broke down the Cook contract and less than $2 million is guaranteed. The rest is bonuses if he stays on the roster.

Right. Along with speculation that Cook could be cut at any time if Hall shows himself to be fully recovered.

I doubt Cook gets cut during the 2023 season when the Jets are trying to make noise in the playoffs, but sure thats possible.

 

[Keith1]

I'm a Dotson fan as well. He'll outperform again this year.

Another Penn State alum

 

[Ministry of Pain]

WR 45 Gabriel Davis, fighting injury much of the season he racked up over 800 yds and 7TDs
He's not going to be 80-100 catch guy, never ever ever ever but...if he just gets his catch total up to say 60

60-1,000-8TDs and you are getting him where? Double Digit rounds? It's worth the risk down here as your last guy on the bench I'm thinking.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Good thread.

Ridley is rocketing up boards. Increasingly not escaping Round 2 and going before/next to Olave/D.Smith/Higgins/Waddle.

 

[packdog]

jakobi meyers. cost is minimal and will be a player or three deep on your bench. not sexy but consistent. got paid and fits with noodle arm jimmy. the kinda guy you don't wanna start but are happy to have on heavy bye weeks or if you suffer a rash of injuries

 

[Dr. Octopus]

D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him

Which is why I have no conclusion on the Jets backfield. Your point is valid...I agree; $7M guaranteed is alot for an insurance policy. Hall has a very limited but spectacular pro resume. The similarities between Cook/Hall at this stage of their careers is uncanny and Cook did struggle his 2nd season coming off the ACL tear not reaching elite level play until he had almost two year distance from the injury. The same could apply to Hall. But we won't know - they've simply significantly widened the margin for error.

I'm no expert, but I believe Menobrown broke down the Cook contract and less than $2 million is guaranteed. The rest is bonuses if he stays on the roster.

Right. Along with speculation that Cook could be cut at any time if Hall shows himself to be fully recovered.

I doubt Cook gets cut during the 2023 season when the Jets are trying to make noise in the playoffs, but sure thats possible.

I think even if Hall shows to be 100% healthy and better than last year, there’s little reason to cut Cook, if the team is winning. I mean saving $4MM shouldn’t be an issue where a playoff team would give up depth.

 

[Tanner9919]

As some others have danced around it without actually saying it, C. Watson is going to be a god this year. Have y'all been watching Jordan Love? He looks silky smooth. I really thought this team would implode, but they look ready to take a step forward. On that belief, Watson is going to be huge part of that offense.
Pickens seems to be a one trick pony, the go-route guy who still doesn't work the middle of the field. That was the knock on him in Ga, and is still true today. While Pickett has gotten better, and seemingly so has the play calling, the straw stirring the drink thus far, has been Jaylen Warren.

I'm not buying Pacheco - significant offseason surgeries on a torn labrum and broken hand. I do not like RBs with labrum issues, it's almost worse than ankle or knee issues. One pop or one tackler holding him up while another finishes him off, could be the end. he's missed all of camp till this point so he's far behind the others. I'm more inclined to take a shot much later on McKinnon, who should be in store for 80 recs. I mean, who is Mahomes passing to? K. Toney? Skyy Moore? When has Toney ever led anyone to believe he can last a full season, let alone 4 games without an injury?
OP I think you're too low on Rodgers at 15. If Wilson is the player everyone thinks he is, he's another Devonte Adams stat compiler guy - perfect for Rodgers. They have some RBs with really good hands, competent TEs. Maybe it's me, but I got the feeling that Rodgers was punking GB last season - pouting and so on, but he had a point, the GB defense has gotten significantly worse over the years, and his main WR was traded to GB. So he didn't put the effort in on a team going nowhere when he knows he's out the following season. He's going to played inspired football and I don't doubt for a minute that the Jets are in the AFC championship game as a result.

I like the Calvin Ridley call he just has to show me something in preseason.

Guys I'm going against the grain on:
Javonte Williams - I have him in dynasty league, he's an 'if' guy. if he's Ok he'll do fine. he looked decent last night, 4-18 recs. the Perine business has gotten out of hand. it's a leap of faith, but he has a lot of talent to succeed, and the Payton offense is where RBs flourish
Tyjae Spears - I think old man Henry is toast. I also think Vrabel is fired if they miss the playoffs. Enter Spears. he has looked dynamic in preseason. He's going to take more of a chunk of Henry's work than most think.
Aiden O'Connell is going to start double digit games in 2023. He looks poised and steady. Jimmy G can't stay healthy. Not sure that's against the grain or whatnot, but he's going to start a lot of games.

Jaylen Warren will be the starting RB in Pittsburgh by Oct 1. I know people like Najee but he's not the best RB on this team. Tomlin loves his productive RBs.
It might not be against the grain, but I'm drafting Jahan Dotson as if he's a top 10 WR 70-90 recs 1100-1200 yards, 8-10 td.
Danny Dimes is going to to be a top 8 QB I'm trying to draft him everywhere.
I'm not touching Bengals players they've looked dreadful so far in preseason. I know that's really against the grain , but the Burrow injury, Mixon being a JAG, and so on, I don't get the warm and fuzzies over this team.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Good thread.

Ridley is rocketing up boards. Increasingly not escaping Round 2 and going before/next to Olave/D.Smith/Higgins/Waddle.

This is great intel...disappointing but I never thought it was going to take much for people to forget the last two years with Ridley.

@TheDirtyWord nice thread
You wrote Calvin Ridley (WR18): When I'm looking at the WR rankings, I see the following ranked higher than Ridley.

I would like to point to the guy who was WR12 overall in PPR last year, Christian Kirk
Capt Kirk is going WR30 off the board and just logged 84/1100/8TDs after 993/5TDs his last season in Arizona, this guy is a top 5 Slot WR in the NFL
Sign me up for me and I know Ridley is a good WR and he can take double coverage with him and leave Kirk one on one in the middle of the field to operate, Kirk will have a field day.

Which actually makes this an extraordinarily good observation.

 

[Ilov80s]

On the opposite of the Cousins coin, lots of players are inflated just because they're cool. I always felt like Marshawn Lynch was over valued in just about every draft because everyone fawned over him. It's not his fault, but I thought his value was always inflated for non football reasons.

He is going to throw a lot of passes this year, that's for sure. He's always a nice value.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

As Ridley's stock continues to rise, Kirk is the real value in Jacksonville imo. Ridley is going a full round before Kirk based on CBS ADP. Don't get me wrong, I love Ridley's narrative and would liked to have drafted a month ago when he was still "value." But with him taking defenders' focus away and Kirk having established chemistry with Lawrence, I see big things for Kirk. He's got game. Of course this requires you to be a Lawrence believer as well.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Pickens seems to be a one trick pony, the go-route guy who still doesn't work the middle of the field. That was the knock on him in Ga, and is still true today. While Pickett has gotten better, and seemingly so has the play calling, the straw stirring the drink thus far, has been Jaylen Warren.

The Jaylen Warren call is interesting. That seems to have been low-key but omni-present buzz about the PIT running game all off-season and a 62 yard scamper to the house doesn't come close to dousing that flame. But I do remember that Najee suffered a pretty worrisome foot injury at the outset of last season (even TC) and his start was sllllooooowww.

But his 2nd half was much better after I think he was able to put that foot injury behind him and while I think his 1st round pedigree affords him the workloads he gets, his running style seems to be straight out of central casting for PIT RB's. I think I'd struggle to pull the trigger for him if I didn't already have Najee.

I'm not buying Pacheco - significant offseason surgeries on a torn labrum and broken hand. I do not like RBs with labrum issues, it's almost worse than ankle or knee issues. One pop or one tackler holding him up while another finishes him off, could be the end. he's missed all of camp till this point so he's far behind the others. I'm more inclined to take a shot much later on McKinnon, who should be in store for 80 recs. I mean, who is Mahomes passing to? K. Toney? Skyy Moore? When has Toney ever led anyone to believe he can last a full season, let alone 4 games without an injury?

I like McKinnon and he was one of my RB70 type picks last year that worked out when there was more buzz for Ronald Jones. And I'm far from a doctor, but 'could be the end' exists all over the NFL. Pacheco was able to play thru his injury and if you're willing to bet on Javonte, whose injury was far worse...I think it's tough to turn around and say, 'but Pacheco' who played through his.

OP I think you're too low on Rodgers at 15. If Wilson is the player everyone thinks he is, he's another Devonte Adams stat compiler guy - perfect for Rodgers.

The #15 ranking was FantasyPros - I agree. I think Rodgers is on absolute 'I'm going to show you M**T**RF****R mode'...I actually think his stock might be following Ridley's soon. I have to schedule my drafts sooner <sigh>

Javonte Williams - I have him in dynasty league, he's an 'if' guy. if he's Ok he'll do fine. he looked decent last night, 4-18 recs. the Perine business has gotten out of hand. it's a leap of faith, but he has a lot of talent to succeed, and the Payton offense is where RBs flourish

With that said above...I've been very much listening to the reports here. This guy was a Round 2 player unanimously last year - he was going to be the GUY, Melvin Gordon BE D*M*ED. I had thought that his specific knee injury was worse than the typical ACL tear, but his recovery has been stellar. I think though he's the Ingram of this offense meaning I think his carry/snap ratio is going to be amongst the highest in the NFL and I think that tops him out in RB2 territory. Still a value, but not what he was this time last year.

 

[Biabreakable]

D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him

Which is why I have no conclusion on the Jets backfield. Your point is valid...I agree; $7M guaranteed is alot for an insurance policy. Hall has a very limited but spectacular pro resume. The similarities between Cook/Hall at this stage of their careers is uncanny and Cook did struggle his 2nd season coming off the ACL tear not reaching elite level play until he had almost two year distance from the injury. The same could apply to Hall. But we won't know - they've simply significantly widened the margin for error.

I'm no expert, but I believe Menobrown broke down the Cook contract and less than $2 million is guaranteed. The rest is bonuses if he stays on the roster.

Right. Along with speculation that Cook could be cut at any time if Hall shows himself to be fully recovered.

I doubt Cook gets cut during the 2023 season when the Jets are trying to make noise in the playoffs, but sure thats possible.

I think even if Hall shows to be 100% healthy and better than last year, there’s little reason to cut Cook, if the team is winning. I mean saving $4MM shouldn’t be an issue where a playoff team would give up depth.

Agreed.

Cook leads by example and is loved by his team mates.

Just acknowledging that the contract is set up so that the Jets could cut him. Not that I think they will.

 

[Chaka]

I always felt like Marshawn Lynch was over valued in just about every draft because everyone fawned over him.

I don't think anyone had much opinion of Lynch in Buffalo, beyond him being a pretty good NFL RB who seemed like a head case. Then the run against New Orleans in the playoffs happened and Beast Mode was born.

I don't think he was being over drafted before that point. Maybe you have the 2007-2010 ADP data that says otherwise.

And it's difficult to argue he was over drafted after that point.

The following four seasons he went for 1,400 yards & 13 TDs, 1,780 yards & 12 TDs, 1,570 & 14 then 1,670 & 17

If that doesn't live up to high first round expectations, I'm not sure what does.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I don't think anyone had much opinion of Lynch in Buffalo, beyond him being a pretty good NFL RB who seemed like a head case. Then the run against New Orleans in the playoffs happened and Beast Mode was born.

I don't think he was being over drafted before that point.

From my experience, the Marshawn Lynch fawning started with the cart at Cal. Way before the playoff run.

And that's not always a negative. For sure he was great later. Jamaal Williams was overdrafted in some leagues because he's fun. That worked out well for me last year.

But it doesn't always. Just mostly making note that some player values can sometimes be inflated or deflated based on non football things.

 

[Joe Bryant]

As Ridley's stock continues to rise, Kirk is the real value in Jacksonville imo. Ridley is going a full round before Kirk based on CBS ADP. Don't get me wrong, I love Ridley's narrative and would liked to have drafted a month ago when he was still "value." But with him taking defenders' focus away and Kirk having established chemistry with Lawrence, I see big things for Kirk. He's got game. Of course this requires you to be a Lawrence believer as well.

The Ridley - Kirk question continues to be one of the more interesting situations this summer. The one thing I'm sure of though is how excited I am for Trevor Lawrence. Should be fun.

 

[Joe Bryant]

HAHA. terrible take

One thing about this forum that makes it great is we try not to mock or rip other posts. If you disagree, fine. Say that and why. Thanks.

 

[pinkstapler]

@TheDirtyWord nice thread
You wrote Calvin Ridley (WR18): When I'm looking at the WR rankings, I see the following ranked higher than Ridley.

I would like to point to the guy who was WR12 overall in PPR last year, Christian Kirk
Capt Kirk is going WR30 off the board and just logged 84/1100/8TDs after 993/5TDs his last season in Arizona, this guy is a top 5 Slot WR in the NFL
Sign me up for me and I know Ridley is a good WR and he can take double coverage with him and leave Kirk one on one in the middle of the field to operate, Kirk will have a field day.

Which actually makes this an extraordinarily good observation.

Another observation to note on Kirk: he's been coming off the field in 2 WR sets so far in preseason. That may change, but as of now if Ridley isn't enough of a worry, I think the decrease in snap count should be as well.

 

[Ardbeg4ever]

I know he's probably a JAG, but Richie James averaged 11 hppr points / game the last 7 games with Giants. Given the lack of proven talent on the Chiefs, I could see him being a startable WR3 for at least the 1st half of the season until S.Moore gets going. By then Toney will be on his 3rd injury (Jaded '22 Toney manager) so he could be of value all year.

 

[Pipes]

As Ridley's stock continues to rise, Kirk is the real value in Jacksonville imo. Ridley is going a full round before Kirk based on CBS ADP. Don't get me wrong, I love Ridley's narrative and would liked to have drafted a month ago when he was still "value." But with him taking defenders' focus away and Kirk having established chemistry with Lawrence, I see big things for Kirk. He's got game. Of course this requires you to be a Lawrence believer as well.

The Ridley - Kirk question continues to be one of the more interesting situations this summer. The one thing I'm sure of though is how excited I am for Trevor Lawrence. Should be fun.

This. Hearing a ton of Ridley talk and some Etienne and Kirk buzz but what about Lawrence? He has the weapons and now in a 2nd year under an offensive minded coach I think he's poised for a big jump this year.

 

[FFWhiskey]

As Ridley's stock continues to rise, Kirk is the real value in Jacksonville imo. Ridley is going a full round before Kirk based on CBS ADP. Don't get me wrong, I love Ridley's narrative and would liked to have drafted a month ago when he was still "value." But with him taking defenders' focus away and Kirk having established chemistry with Lawrence, I see big things for Kirk. He's got game. Of course this requires you to be a Lawrence believer as well.

The Ridley - Kirk question continues to be one of the more interesting situations this summer. The one thing I'm sure of though is how excited I am for Trevor Lawrence. Should be fun.

I think Lawrence can throw 35 touchdowns. That's probably close to his ceiling but he threw 25 last year and with the addition of Ridley along with his progress as a 3rd year player and another year in that offense, I think he takes a leap and we will be talking about him in the see tier as Burrow, Herbert, Allen, Jackson this time next year.

 

[pinkstapler]

I've posted this several times across several threads, and still didn't see his name brought up here. Tyler Lockett, being drafted as WR28, around 75ADP overall. The guy who has finished the past 4 seasons as WR13, WR8, WR15, and WR13. The guy who plays alongside another top WR everyone loves a ton more and said would tank his value, DK Metcalf. Who's being drafted as WR15 around 32ADP overall despite finishing the past 3 seasons as WR7, WR14, and WR16. And now the team drafted another rookie WR, who again people love, who again people say will take away from Lockett, and some people are drafting alongside if not ahead of Lockett. Boggles my mind. Even with some regression, which I don't see a case for at all, I don't see how he doesn't crush his ADP of WR28.

He's statistically one of the best route runners in the NFL, can line up anywhere, excels against zone and press and dominates against man. Ranks in the top 10 in separation. Has a nose for the end zone and hasn't scored less than 8 TDs the past five years. In fact he's the only player in the NFL over the past 4 years to have at least 70 rec, 1000 yards, and 8 TDS. In the entire history of the NFL only 8 WRs have ever done the same thing across four consecutive seasons. He's making the quietest HOF career I think I've ever seen. So maybe he's slowing down? Especially after having to play with a brand new QB last season. Nah, it was statistically one of his best. And Matt Harmon's reception perception shows most of his metrics in route running have actually been improving year over year. He's the definition of set and forget, a wide receiver you can draft in the 6th round as a WR3 who will likely be the highest scoring WR2 in your league.

 

[Chaka]

In the entire history of the NFL only 8 WRs have ever done the same thing across four consecutive seasons.

Interesting. Who are the other seven?

 

[pinkstapler]

In the entire history of the NFL only 8 WRs have ever done the same thing across four consecutive seasons.

Interesting. Who are the other seven?

Sorry I think I meant to include Lockett as one of the eight. The other seven were Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Chris Carter (those four each produced 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and eight touchdowns in at least five straight seasons) and Antonio Brown, Torry Holt, and Herman Moore did it four straight like Lockett.

Randy Moss is the most notable omission just barely missing by having only 69 rec his rookie year, and then only 7 TDs his 5th season, give him 1 more reception and 1 more TD and that dude woulda done it 6 straight seasons lol. Mike Evans and Larry Fitz were only a few stats here and there from missing the semi-arbitrary cut offs as well. But yeah, quite the illustrious group of names Lockett finds himself around for a guy basically no one ever talks about.

 

[Keith1]

As Ridley's stock continues to rise, Kirk is the real value in Jacksonville imo. Ridley is going a full round before Kirk based on CBS ADP. Don't get me wrong, I love Ridley's narrative and would liked to have drafted a month ago when he was still "value." But with him taking defenders' focus away and Kirk having established chemistry with Lawrence, I see big things for Kirk. He's got game. Of course this requires you to be a Lawrence believer as well.

The Ridley - Kirk question continues to be one of the more interesting situations this summer. The one thing I'm sure of though is how excited I am for Trevor Lawrence. Should be fun.

This. Hearing a ton of Ridley talk and some Etienne and Kirk buzz but what about Lawrence? He has the weapons and now in a 2nd year under an offensive minded coach I think he's poised for a big jump this year.

Shhh.... (let him stay under the radar until after draft day please)

 

[foxco]

jakobi meyers. cost is minimal and will be a player or three deep on your bench. not sexy but consistent. got paid and fits with noodle arm jimmy. the kinda guy you don't wanna start but are happy to have on heavy bye weeks or if you suffer a rash of injuries

I agree with this and yet whenever I gaze at my starting lineup and see the word Jacobi Meyers I feel this desperate need to re-evaluate every bad decision I've ever made, so there's a ton of self-reflection involved having Meyers on your team.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

I've posted this several times across several threads, and still didn't see his name brought up here. Tyler Lockett, being drafted as WR28, around 75ADP overall. The guy who has finished the past 4 seasons as WR13, WR8, WR15, and WR13. The guy who plays alongside another top WR everyone loves a ton more and said would tank his value, DK Metcalf. Who's being drafted as WR15 around 32ADP overall despite finishing the past 3 seasons as WR7, WR14, and WR16. And now the team drafted another rookie WR, who again people love, who again people say will take away from Lockett, and some people are drafting alongside if not ahead of Lockett. Boggles my mind. Even with some regression, which I don't see a case for at all, I don't see how he doesn't crush his ADP of WR28.

He's statistically one of the best route runners in the NFL, can line up anywhere, excels against zone and press and dominates against man. Ranks in the top 10 in separation. Has a nose for the end zone and hasn't scored less than 8 TDs the past five years. In fact he's the only player in the NFL over the past 4 years to have at least 70 rec, 1000 yards, and 8 TDS. In the entire history of the NFL only 8 WRs have ever done the same thing across four consecutive seasons. He's making the quietest HOF career I think I've ever seen. So maybe he's slowing down? Especially after having to play with a brand new QB last season. Nah, it was statistically one of his best. And Matt Harmon's reception perception shows most of his metrics in route running have actually been improving year over year. He's the definition of set and forget, a wide receiver you can draft in the 6th round as a WR3 who will likely be the highest scoring WR2 in your league.

The last three years Metcalf is averaging 83/1108/9.33. Lockett is averaging 86/1088/9. That is all of 1 point per year more for Metcalf PPR. I believe JSN will take more targets away from the Tight End room than the top two receivers. I think Metcalf and Lockett will both lose about 10% of their average production. That puts both of them around 225 points PPR.

 

[pinkstapler]

I've posted this several times across several threads, and still didn't see his name brought up here. Tyler Lockett, being drafted as WR28, around 75ADP overall. The guy who has finished the past 4 seasons as WR13, WR8, WR15, and WR13. The guy who plays alongside another top WR everyone loves a ton more and said would tank his value, DK Metcalf. Who's being drafted as WR15 around 32ADP overall despite finishing the past 3 seasons as WR7, WR14, and WR16. And now the team drafted another rookie WR, who again people love, who again people say will take away from Lockett, and some people are drafting alongside if not ahead of Lockett. Boggles my mind. Even with some regression, which I don't see a case for at all, I don't see how he doesn't crush his ADP of WR28.

He's statistically one of the best route runners in the NFL, can line up anywhere, excels against zone and press and dominates against man. Ranks in the top 10 in separation. Has a nose for the end zone and hasn't scored less than 8 TDs the past five years. In fact he's the only player in the NFL over the past 4 years to have at least 70 rec, 1000 yards, and 8 TDS. In the entire history of the NFL only 8 WRs have ever done the same thing across four consecutive seasons. He's making the quietest HOF career I think I've ever seen. So maybe he's slowing down? Especially after having to play with a brand new QB last season. Nah, it was statistically one of his best. And Matt Harmon's reception perception shows most of his metrics in route running have actually been improving year over year. He's the definition of set and forget, a wide receiver you can draft in the 6th round as a WR3 who will likely be the highest scoring WR2 in your league.

The last three years Metcalf is averaging 83/1108/9.33. Lockett is averaging 86/1088/9. That is all of 1 point per year more for Metcalf PPR. I believe JSN will take more targets away from the Tight End room than the top two receivers. I think Metcalf and Lockett will both lose about 10% of their average production. That puts both of them around 225 points PPR.

I know, I'm shocked that their ADPs are still so different despite that scoring (DK and Lockett).

That feels like a reasonable projection. I wouldn't say I have high expectations for any of their TEs either. Where Lockett pulls ahead, not just on the team but even across the NFL, is his efficiency with his targets. I guess it could depend on how defenses play it, but I have a hard time seeing Lockett losing much if he's still playing at such a high efficiency and continuing to get open at will. If JSN plays like a lot of people think he can, not sure what defenses will do. They can't cover all three every play, that's for sure.

It starts to get muddy when people are also projecting Charbs for a decent amount of receptions as well. Just not sure where they will all be coming from. Also, while I'm sure it will drop now that they added JSN, Seahawks ran a TON of 12 personnel. I can't imagine they are going to stop doing that all together. And I'd also imagine when they do, it will be JSN who is the odd man out and losing those snaps.

 

[Chaka]

jakobi meyers. cost is minimal and will be a player or three deep on your bench. not sexy but consistent. got paid and fits with noodle arm jimmy. the kinda guy you don't wanna start but are happy to have on heavy bye weeks or if you suffer a rash of injuries

I agree with this and yet whenever I gaze at my starting lineup and see the word Jacobi Meyers I feel this desperate need to re-evaluate every bad decision I've ever made, so there's a ton of self-reflection involved having Meyers on your team.

I agree but, FWIW, every single report I have seen about him this off season has been glowing. Apparently he's having a great camp and really fits with the offense. I don't think that amounts to much more than 900-6, but that is pretty nice for a wr4/5

 

[Statorama]

Here are my guys for each of the first few rounds. I do a lot of underdog and ffpc so going by their adps.

Round 7 - David Montgomery, I don't expect him to have 18 touchdowns line Williams last year, but 10 touchdowns and over 1k total yards seems very attainable.

Great call. I've been able to steal him in every draft this year, he's going way under the radar.

I've also noticed a slide in Rhamondre in recent drafts that I think way overestimates what Zeke is going to do this year. That'll likely course correct by this weekend, but he's been a relative bargain this week.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Another guy on the cool / not cool discussion and how some guys get boosted or faded: Russell Wilson. He's fallen so far out of favor with the cringe videos and lets ride. But I'm thinking he can still can play. Can likely be a steal in lots of drafts.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Another guy on the cool / not cool discussion and how some guys get boosted or faded: Russell Wilson. He's fallen so far out of favor with the cringe videos and lets ride. But I'm thinking he can still can play. Can likely be a steal in lots of drafts.

The best comparison I can make with Wilson for this season oddly enough is Baker Mayfield.

After his rookie year when Mayfield kind of studded out...his 2nd year was a disaster. They brought Stefanski aboard and he was able to somewhat work around Mayfield's limitations and he had one of his better seasons. But it also felt tenuous. And that's where I'm at with Wilson. I think DEN can probably manufacture a successful season from him, but it's probably not a situation I'm diving into.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I did two drafts on Yahoo over the weekend and I can’t believe how far down the QB rankings Purdy still is on there. Some of the guys that were above him I’d feel way more comfortable with Purdy than them. I think his floor is QB15 and I would not at all be surprised if he’s a back-end QB1 this season.

 

[packdog]

i'm getting a lot of drake london. not many seem to want him. i've drafted him like 3 or 4 times in the 70s (6th-7th round). he exhibited some upside toward the end of last year and seems like he could be a target hog on a running team. there's worse things out there. and, sure, the hawks run a lot but the offense could be better this year. i just keep saying 'sure, why not" when he's sitting there at that point