Going Against The Grain - Who You Got? (1 Viewer)

[TheDirtyWord]

We're steaming ahead toward the end of draft season, so for the most part it feels like the dye has been cast on how players are being perceived. And there are always some where you wonder why you're on an island in your eval - and some islands are bigger than others. Doesn't mean that you're right/wrong...just seeing things from a different POV. Here are mine...(ranking 1/2 PPR FantasyPros)

Alvin Kamara (RB25): Brees has been retired for 2 years now. In that time, the Saints have had the following starting QB's:

Andy Dalton: 14
Jameis Winston: 10
Taysom Hill: 5
Trevor Siemian: 4
Ian Book: 1

They've been so desperate for RB support that in both seasons they either signed or traded for the corpse of Mark Ingram. So I don't see the signing of Williams as a detriment to Kamara, but someone to help distribute the load which is when Kamara WAS Kamara.

The 3 game suspension takes additional buzz off him, but I'm betting he's still an RB1 as the offense seems better position than at anytime since Brees retired to take advantage of his skillset.

Dameon Pierce (RB21): If you remember last year, Pierce was a pre-season star. If there was any RB who rose thru the pre-draft process, it was Pierce. Along with Breece Hall, both were the two 'new talents' on the scene.

A year later after what I would characterize as a very successful rookie year...there is NO buzz around Pierce. I thought he'd start getting some love as August progressed, but August simply doesn't move the needle in FF rankings like it once did. But prior to missing the last 4 games of the season, Pierce was on a 327 touch 17 game pace (Nick Chubb had 329). Yes, Devin Singletary has been brought on board to help carry the load, but I see that as a plus. Shaving 10-15% off of Pierce's workload while assuming the Burkhead/Ogunbowale workload gives Singletary the 8-10 touch compliment that keeps Pierce fresh but still gives hi a 280 touch outcome.

And for me...if an RB is getting that type of workload...I don't see how he can be ranked in the 20's especially with how good he looked.

Isaiah Pacheco (RB29): It's certainly possible a CEH back to full health may shave off a few snaps/game as McKinnon feels like a very package specific player. But there's a physicality that Pacheco brings to that running game that CEH never brought. Also...when Pacheco took over the starting job after the bye, he still only averaged 29 snaps/game. While the run game will always be secondary in that offense, there are probably aspects to what McKinnon brought to the offense in 2022 that Pacheco could start to usurp. We know Pacheco was dealing with a shoulder injury for most of last season and after the bye, McKinnon outsnapped Pacheco, probably more out of necessity.

I'm not saying Pacheco is an RB1. But in those 13 games after the bye including the playoffs he put up 1022/5 (YFS/TD) numbers...RB29 just feels REAL low.

Aaron Rodgers (QB15): Tom Brady's last season in NE feels really similar to Rodgers last one in GB. Even statistically, his unimpressive 4058/24/8 in 613 pass attempts while the offense appeared broken has similarities to Rodgers 3695/26/12 2022..

Here's the thing...everything that you believed about the Jets offense prior to 2023 is off the table. This isn't Joe Douglas's team. It's not Robert Saleh's team. It's Aaron Rodgers' team. Douglas/Saleh are betting THEIR careers on Rodgers, not vice-versa. So, 536 pass attempts that you saw Rodgers make under Lafleur in 2022? Nah - that's a 600 minimum number in 2023. The only way that his attempts are lower than that is if he's off the charts efficient and productive. And so while there is excitement about quite a few QB's like Lawrence/Deshaun ranked at that 8-9 area...I feel better about Rodgers here. I think people have written him off to early from the 'elite FF QB category'.

I think most are seeing that there is alot of upside here. But I also think people are forgetting what upside with Rodgers can really mean.

Calvin Ridley (WR18): When I'm looking at the WR rankings, I see the following ranked higher than Ridley.

Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St.Brown
Chris Olave
Tee Higgins

I get the layoff factor. Ridley's circumstances are certainly unique to try and value him. And I'm also not saying that Ridley will outperform any of the WR's listed. but in his last full season, he went 90/1374/9 in 15 games and in 2021 was ranked in the WR5 range.

This is another guy that I think the FF community is warming up to as a legit force, but is still classifying a tier (maybe 2) too low based on not only what he can do, but the upgrade in QB he now has. In short...I'm predicting a Stefon Diggs to BUF type impact. I also think that Ridley has done alot to own up to his mistakes, explained from his POV the circumstances that led to the problems of the last 2 years and if I'm betting, he's got a chip on his shoulder to reclaim a spot as one of the best WR's in the NFL.

 

[Ilov80s]

I guess I’m just surprised Antonio Gibson seems to be an after thought. Seems like nobody wants him. I got him in round 11 last night. I’m sorry but I don’t think Brian Robinson is very good and I do think this Washington offense is going to be a little improved. It just seems like people seem to have forgotten he exists.

I know people think he’s been some huge bust or something but his career average would play out to a season of 47 receptions, 1200 yards and 10 TDs.

 

[rockaction]

Good stuff. I agree with your Kamara and Pierce takes, but I disagree with your Rodgers and Ridley takes. My reasoning for Rodgers is that I think the Jets are going to run the ball. They've loaded up on good running backs. From Cook to Hall to Abanikanda (yes, he's really good already), they've got a bunch of guys who can tote the rock. So I think the emphasis, with a weak receiving corps outside of Wilson, will run the football.

I don't think his attempts will jump all that much under Hackett. They'll probably return to Hackett levels, but I'm too lazy to look up how many Rodgers averaged when Hackett was his coach.

As far as Ridley goes, he's going earlier than ADP in my experience, and going too high for my taste.

 

[Bankerguy]

I am keeping my eye on Ridley as well.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Good stuff. I agree with your Kamara and Pierce takes, but I disagree with your Rodgers and Ridley takes. My reasoning for Rodgers is that I think the Jets are going to run the ball. They've loaded up on good running backs. From Cook to Hall to Abanikanda (yes, he's really good already), they've got a bunch of guys who can tote the rock. So I think the emphasis, with a weak receiving corps outside of Wilson, will run the football.

I don't think his attempts will jump all that much under Hackett. They'll probably return to Hackett levels, but I'm too lazy to look up how many Rodgers averaged when Hackett was his coach.

As far as Ridley goes, he's going earlier than ADP in my experience, and going too high for my taste.

I think for Rodgers, historically his attempts numbers have always been lower than you'd think simply due to how efficient he's been throughout his career. but I think the Cook signing was a nod to ensuring the running game was not reliant on Hall's ACL recovery. Rodgers career is ticking down...he's going to want better options than pre-season stars. If his attempts are low, it's because that offense is humming at an elite level, JMO.

Good to know about Ridley.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think everyone wants to bury ETN under the Tank Bigsby hype train but I believe ETN will prove to be the much better all around RB and be the clear leader of the RBBC.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I guess I’m just surprised Antonio Gibson seems to be an after thought. Seems like nobody wants him. I got him in round 11 last night. I’m sorry but I don’t think Brian Robinson is very good and I do think this Washington offense is going to be a little improved. It just seems like people seem to have forgotten he exists.

I know people think he’s been some huge bust or something but his career average would play out to a season of 47 receptions, 1200 yards and 10 TDs.

IMO, Robinson gets a pass for 2022 no matter where you land on him due to him coming bak from being shot twice. But I do remember how the Gibson balloon deflated last off-season when they (inexplicably?) re-signed McKissic. So I do think there is meat on that bone. I would caution though that with McLaurin/Dotson/Samuel...feel like that's a pretty good WR corps and of the two, I'd probably slant my bet toward BRJr.

 

[rockaction]

I think everyone wants to bury ETN under the Tank Bigsby hype train but I believe ETN will prove to be the much better all around RB and be the clear leader of the RBBC.

I totally agree with the caveat that the coaches oversaw his drafting and might be partial to see Bigsby succeed. Or he's got more of what they want. But I agree with the general sentiment and think Etienne will be secure in his job.

That might be wishful thinking on my end, as I'm disposed to like Etienne (and drafted him in one league), but we'll see.

 

[Ilov80s]

I guess I’m just surprised Antonio Gibson seems to be an after thought. Seems like nobody wants him. I got him in round 11 last night. I’m sorry but I don’t think Brian Robinson is very good and I do think this Washington offense is going to be a little improved. It just seems like people seem to have forgotten he exists.

I know people think he’s been some huge bust or something but his career average would play out to a season of 47 receptions, 1200 yards and 10 TDs.

IMO, Robinson gets a pass for 2022 no matter where you land on him due to him coming bak from being shot twice. But I do remember how the Gibson balloon deflated last off-season when they (inexplicably?) re-signed McKissic. So I do think there is meat on that bone. I would caution though that with McLaurin/Dotson/Samuel...feel like that's a pretty good WR corps and of the two, I'd probably slant my bet toward BRJr.

That is a fair point about the WRs and for sure with Robinson. I just didn't think he was much of a prospect coming out of Bama. Looked like just a plodder to me.

 

[JohnnyU]

Bert Jones comes out of retirement and starts for the Falcons.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think everyone wants to bury ETN under the Tank Bigsby hype train but I believe ETN will prove to be the much better all around RB and be the clear leader of the RBBC.

I totally agree with the caveat that the coaches oversaw his drafting and might be partial to see Bigsby succeed. Or he's got more of what they want. But I agree with the general sentiment and think Etienne will be secure in his job.

That might be wishful thinking on my end, as I'm disposed to like Etienne (and drafted him in one league), but we'll see.

The thing about Bigbsy and the overall RB situation in JAX is that outside of ETN in 2022, JAX RB's scored 8 TD's - 6 rushing/2 receiving. ETN had 5.

Alot of the was at the outset of the season when James Robinson was part of the attack, but he ran out of gas early. Also, once Robinson was toast, it's fair to say ETN probably was given too big a workload. So the Bigsby drafting was a nod to try and secure more season long efficiency out of ETN...which is smart. His first 8 games, 6.2 YPC. Last 9 games? 4.3 YPC.

It's clear ETN is their HR threat out of the backfield...Bigsby should be a much better compliment to him than what they had. But inside the 5 could be an area up for grabs.

 

[Insein]

Pierce is my #1 target if I go WR-WR early.

 

[travdogg]

I think Davante Adams could absolutely be every bit as good as he was last season. WR1 overall is very much in play for a team that likely struggles to win many games. I don't worry about Adams losing interest as he's talked many times about things like legacy and HOF.

Christian Watson feels like another DK Metcalf to me. Totally fine with him as a WR2, and despite preseason target share, expect him to be the clear #1 for GB.

Alexander Mattison feels like he could fall into the endzone 10+ times. He also may be a lot better than we think. He's been very good in fantasy whenever Cook was out, and this front office is the one that gave him an extension. I think he's a 3-down RB in a good (maybe great) offense who is a solid RB2 at RB3 prices.

 

[FFWhiskey]

As not to repeat any of the names listed, Kadarius Toney fits the bill of a player who has burned owners in the past but still has WR20 upside.

He's got two years left on his deal and based on the way this guy carries himself, he will want the next 80 to 100 million dollar WR contract.


He will fool everyone long enough, play through enough pain, and secure the bag. He's got the talent and plays with Mahomes. He has no excuse.



With a full year in that system, it's go time. I see lots of Sky Moore love and he's a great NFL #2, but Toney is that guy.

 

[Joe Bryant]

We're steaming ahead toward the end of draft season, so for the most part it feels like the dye has been cast on how players are being perceived. And there are always some where you wonder why you're on an island in your eval - and some islands are bigger than others. Doesn't mean that you're right/wrong...just seeing things from a different POV. Here are mine...(ranking 1/2 PPR FantasyPros)

Alvin Kamara (RB25): Brees has been retired for 2 years now. In that time, the Saints have had the following starting QB's:

Andy Dalton: 14
Jameis Winston: 10
Taysom Hill: 5
Trevor Siemian: 4
Ian Book: 1

They've been so desperate for RB support that in both seasons they either signed or traded for the corpse of Mark Ingram. So I don't see the signing of Williams as a detriment to Kamara, but someone to help distribute the load which is when Kamara WAS Kamara.

The 3 game suspension takes additional buzz off him, but I'm betting he's still an RB1 as the offense seems better position than at anytime since Brees retired to take advantage of his skillset.

Dameon Pierce (RB21): If you remember last year, Pierce was a pre-season star. If there was any RB who rose thru the pre-draft process, it was Pierce. Along with Breece Hall, both were the two 'new talents' on the scene.

A year later after what I would characterize as a very successful rookie year...there is NO buzz around Pierce. I thought he'd start getting some love as August progressed, but August simply doesn't move the needle in FF rankings like it once did. But prior to missing the last 4 games of the season, Pierce was on a 327 touch 17 game pace (Nick Chubb had 329). Yes, Devin Singletary has been brought on board to help carry the load, but I see that as a plus. Shaving 10-15% off of Pierce's workload while assuming the Burkhead/Ogunbowale workload gives Singletary the 8-10 touch compliment that keeps Pierce fresh but still gives hi a 280 touch outcome.

And for me...if an RB is getting that type of workload...I don't see how he can be ranked in the 20's especially with how good he looked.

Isaiah Pacheco (RB29): It's certainly possible a CEH back to full health may shave off a few snaps/game as McKinnon feels like a very package specific player. But there's a physicality that Pacheco brings to that running game that CEH never brought. Also...when Pacheco took over the starting job after the bye, he still only averaged 29 snaps/game. While the run game will always be secondary in that offense, there are probably aspects to what McKinnon brought to the offense in 2022 that Pacheco could start to usurp. We know Pacheco was dealing with a shoulder injury for most of last season and after the bye, McKinnon outsnapped Pacheco, probably more out of necessity.

I'm not saying Pacheco is an RB1. But in those 13 games after the bye including the playoffs he put up 1022/5 (YFS/TD) numbers...RB29 just feels REAL low.

Aaron Rodgers (QB15): Tom Brady's last season in NE feels really similar to Rodgers last one in GB. Even statistically, his unimpressive 4058/24/8 in 613 pass attempts while the offense appeared broken has similarities to Rodgers 3695/26/12 2022..

Here's the thing...everything that you believed about the Jets offense prior to 2023 is off the table. This isn't Joe Douglas's team. It's not Robert Saleh's team. It's Aaron Rodgers' team. Douglas/Saleh are betting THEIR careers on Rodgers, not vice-versa. So, 536 pass attempts that you saw Rodgers make under Lafleur in 2022? Nah - that's a 600 minimum number in 2023. The only way that his attempts are lower than that is if he's off the charts efficient and productive. And so while there is excitement about quite a few QB's like Lawrence/Deshaun ranked at that 8-9 area...I feel better about Rodgers here. I think people have written him off to early from the 'elite FF QB category'.

I think most are seeing that there is alot of upside here. But I also think people are forgetting what upside with Rodgers can really mean.

Calvin Ridley (WR18): When I'm looking at the WR rankings, I see the following ranked higher than Ridley.

Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St.Brown
Chris Olave
Tee Higgins

I get the layoff factor. Ridley's circumstances are certainly unique to try and value him. And I'm also not saying that Ridley will outperform any of the WR's listed. but in his last full season, he went 90/1374/9 in 15 games and in 2021 was ranked in the WR5 range.

This is another guy that I think the FF community is warming up to as a legit force, but is still classifying a tier (maybe 2) too low based on not only what he can do, but the upgrade in QB he now has. In short...I'm predicting a Stefon Diggs to BUF type impact. I also think that Ridley has done alot to own up to his mistakes, explained from his POV the circumstances that led to the problems of the last 2 years and if I'm betting, he's got a chip on his shoulder to reclaim a spot as one of the best WR's in the NFL.

Love these kind of takes. Going against conventional wisdom and also explaining why is great content. Well done.

 

[Uncle Leo]

DeAndre Hopkins

 

[TheDirtyWord]

DeAndre Hopkins

It's funny - I loved him last year because I thought he was still a 'that dude' type of guy and you could get him real cheap because of the 6-game suspension. When he came back, he really was a WR1 although more at the bottom of that spectrum.

And I think you're right...he's being overlooked again. He's certainly lost some speed, but he feels like a Larry Fitzgerald who can crafty the hell out of the end of his career and still be productive. Good call out.

 

[FFWhiskey]

DeAndre Hopkins

It's funny - I loved him last year because I thought he was still a 'that dude' type of guy and you could get him real cheap because of the 6-game suspension. When he came back, he really was a WR1 although more at the bottom of that spectrum.

And I think you're right...he's being overlooked again. He's certainly lost some speed, but he feels like a Larry Fitzgerald who can crafty the hell out of the end of his career and still be productive. Good call out.

I miss Larry Fitzgerald. :'( He was on the very first fantasy football team I ever played in when I was 13 years old.

He's the reason I got into football obsessively and became an Arizona Cardinals fan. It was an absolute privilege to watch that guy play. I still feel awful about that SB against Pittsburgh.


Kurt and Larry deserved a ring. If it wasn't for J Harrison 99 yard pick 6 a ******** S Holmes miracle toe drag in the corner of the end zone. 16 year old me was crushed.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

DeAndre Hopkins

It's funny - I loved him last year because I thought he was still a 'that dude' type of guy and you could get him real cheap because of the 6-game suspension. When he came back, he really was a WR1 although more at the bottom of that spectrum.

And I think you're right...he's being overlooked again. He's certainly lost some speed, but he feels like a Larry Fitzgerald who can crafty the hell out of the end of his career and still be productive. Good call out.

I miss Larry Fitzgerald. :'( He was on the very first fantasy football team I ever played in when I was 13 years old.

He's the reason I got into football obsessively and became an Arizona Cardinals fan. It was an absolute privilege to watch that guy play. I still feel awful about that SB against Pittsburgh.


Kurt and Larry deserved a ring. If it wasn't for J Harrison 99 yard pick 6 a ******** S Holmes miracle toe drag in the corner of the end zone. 16 year old me was crushed.

Same with Julio...

<cough> 28-3...who ironically doesn't have his toe drag catch remembered as legendarily as possible because they didn't win.

 

[kface]

i think a couple of people are going to really out perform their draft slot

E. Elliot - The guy doesn't fumble and i think BB is going to like his work ethic. I can see him ending up in the 8td range easily
D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him
E. Moore - i think he can lead this team and be 1000 and 6tds pretty easy
B. Purdy - for those qb holdouts...in this offense i think he's going to get you a pretty solid floor of 16 pts every week

 

[rockaction]

who ironically doesn't have his toe drag catch remembered as legendarily as possible because they didn't win.

When he caught that ball I told my brother they just won the Super Bowl and Julio might be going to the Hall of Fame. Oof. All they had to do was let the clock run and run the football. One of the most epic fails ever. My brother, after that catch, told me the Patriots were going to come back if the Falcons didn't let the clock wind down and kept throwing the ball. He was right that day.

 

[Schmeabs]

Kenneth Walker

 

[TheDirtyWord]

One other guy that seems REAL low - George Pickens (WR36)

I think people forget how talented this kid is. He dropped in the draft due to off the field/character issues...which given the info available at the time was fair. BUT...I believe he's been pretty damn clean since being drafted and there doesn't seem to be a few days that go by without him making an absolutely stupid (in a good way) ridiculous play. That type of consistent playmaking generate QB looks.

He's got alpha written ALL over him and he's going in Gabe Davis territory. I'm not saying he's going to explode this year. And 16-17 months of good behavior doesn't a model citizen make. But Pickens at WR36 while Christian Watson at WR24? I'm not getting it.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

who ironically doesn't have his toe drag catch remembered as legendarily as possible because they didn't win.

When he caught that ball I told my brother they just won the Super Bowl and Julio might be going to the Hall of Fame. Oof. All they had to do was let the clock run and run the football. One of the most epic fails ever. My brother, after that catch, told me the Patriots were going to come back if the Falcons let the clock not wind and kept throwing the ball. He was right that day.

My literal words were 'Julio is a God'

<sigh>

 

[rockaction]

But Pickens at WR36 while Christian Watson at WR24? I'm not getting it.

Route running, separation, athleticism. Watson is one of the most athletic receivers to ever test at the combine. Pickens is also a superior athlete, but nowhere near Watson. Watson's route running and separation is also better than Pickens at this point.

That's not even to say that Watson will outscore Pickens this year. I'm just explaining why that's the general consensus and ADP reflects that. Word is out that Pickens only ran go routes last year and has trouble with that long body getting quick separation.

Don't get me wrong. I drafted Pickens in the rookie draft of my dynasty league, but his weaknesses need to be addressed. Perhaps he answers the critics and studs out this year. We'll see. But Watson already did for the last six or seven weeks last year, so he gets the advantage.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Kenneth Walker

Sometimes TC camp injuries are a blessing. They keep the buzz on guys down and in Walker's case...he's been invisible while Charbonnet has looked pretty good.

One thing I'm also realizing is that 'EVERYONE' has their favorite RB2-3. Not just an 'I'll take this guy if he's there'...but I think this guy is going a tier or two too low.

What's the step ahead of the pack move here if a disproportionate amount of owners are feeling zero-RB strategy? RB/RB?

 

[massraider]

Falcons offense--I think Drake/Pitts/Bijan is kind of awesome

Titans offense--I like Treylon, Hopkins, Chig, Henry, Tyjae, Philips.........I like a LOT of guys on the Titans.

Geno Smith. Everyone is excited about other guy on the offense, except for him.

 

[simey]

I guess I’m just surprised Antonio Gibson seems to be an after thought. Seems like nobody wants him. I got him in round 11 last night. I’m sorry but I don’t think Brian Robinson is very good and I do think this Washington offense is going to be a little improved. It just seems like people seem to have forgotten he exists.

I know people think he’s been some huge bust or something but his career average would play out to a season of 47 receptions, 1200 yards and 10 TDs.

IMO, Robinson gets a pass for 2022 no matter where you land on him due to him coming bak from being shot twice. But I do remember how the Gibson balloon deflated last off-season when they (inexplicably?) re-signed McKissic. So I do think there is meat on that bone. I would caution though that with McLaurin/Dotson/Samuel...feel like that's a pretty good WR corps and of the two, I'd probably slant my bet toward BRJr.

Sam Howell can run, and I think he will steal some of Robinson's goal line carries.

 

[Scoresman]

Daniel Jones.

Another year in the new offense. Better receivers. A good tight end. I don't think last year was a ceiling.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

But Pickens at WR36 while Christian Watson at WR24? I'm not getting it.

Route running, separation, athleticism. Watson is one of the most athletic receivers to ever test at the combine. Pickens is also a superior athlete, but nowhere near Watson. Watson's route running and separation is also better than Pickens at this point.

That's not even to say that Watson will outscore Pickens this year. I'm just explaining why that's the general consensus and ADP reflects that. Word is out that Pickens only ran go routes last year and has trouble with that long body getting quick separation.

Don't get me wrong. I drafted Pickens in the rookie draft of my dynasty league, but his weaknesses need to be addressed. Perhaps he answers the critics and studs out this year. We'll see. But Watson already did for the last six or seven weeks last year, so he gets the advantage.

To be fair, Watson put up a 40/610/7 rookie year line (in 13 games) with Aaron Rodgers as his QB while Pickens put up 52/801/4 16-game line with a combination of Trubisky and rookie year Kenny Pickett.

So I would really qualify that concept of studding out understanding that Watson will not have the type of big play QB that he had last year.

The trait discussion is fair BUT Pickens pretty much didn't play football his last year at UGA due to a torn ACL he suffered spring 2021. If we always allow for a player coming off an ACL injury a year on the field to get 'right'...that information matters

 

[rockaction]

To be fair, Watson put up a 40/610/7 rookie year line (in 13 games) with Aaron Rodgers as his QB while Pickens put up 52/801/4 16-game line with a combination of Trubisky and rookie year Kenny Pickett.

That's really a deceptive stat. Watson had not only missed camp, he didn't play a bunch of games due to injury and in others he was severely limited and being eased back in as a rookie. He went insane his last nine weeks in fantasy football, though he tailed off a bunch in the fantasy playoffs. Through Weeks 10-13, a four-week stretch, he averaged twenty-five PPR points per game. Pickens came nowhere close to a stretch like that.

The Rodgers/Pickett thing is misleading because Rodgers notoriously freezes his rookie receivers and Watson carved out a borderline WR1 role on the Packers, so it's doubly impressive. Pickett would throw to anybody with a uniform on, so any comparison is really tempered with that knowledge.

Anyway, proof is in the pudding, so we'll have to see.

 

[massraider]

The Rodgers/Pickett thing is misleading because Rodgers notoriously freezes his rookie receivers and Watson carved out a borderline WR1 role on the Packers, so it's doubly impressive. Pickett would throw to anybody with a uniform on, so any comparison is really tempered with that knowledge.

One guy had Rodgers and had to beat out Doubs.

Other guy had Pickett and had to beat out Diontae.

This speaks well for Pickens, no?

 

[travdogg]

The Rodgers/Pickett thing is misleading because Rodgers notoriously freezes his rookie receivers and Watson carved out a borderline WR1 role on the Packers, so it's doubly impressive. Pickett would throw to anybody with a uniform on, so any comparison is really tempered with that knowledge.

One guy had Rodgers and had to beat out Doubs.

Other guy had Pickett and had to beat out Diontae.

This speaks well for Pickens, no?

One guy has beaten out Doubs, one guy hasn't beaten out Diontae (or Freiermuth for that matter) that's the key difference for me. Watson is the Packers #1 target, Pickens is #2 at best, and possibly #3.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

The Rodgers/Pickett thing is misleading because Rodgers notoriously freezes his rookie receivers and Watson carved out a borderline WR1 role on the Packers, so it's doubly impressive. Pickett would throw to anybody with a uniform on, so any comparison is really tempered with that knowledge.

One guy had Rodgers and had to beat out Doubs.

Other guy had Pickett and had to beat out Diontae.

This speaks well for Pickens, no?

I think it's fine to have a preference. But WR24 vs WR36 is a tier difference. If Rodgers were still in GB...I could understand the delta. GB still finished 11th in TD passes last year despite an off-year from Rodgers in that category

But for my $$, Pickett = Love in terms of setting production expectations. I would agree though that Diontae as a WR2 versus Doubs could hurt Pickens.

 

[msudaisy26]

Here are my guys for each of the first few rounds. I do a lot of underdog and ffpc so going by their adps.

Round 1 - Diggs, he seems to be the forgotten guy in the first round.

Round 2 - Adams, his season over unders are as high as anyone else, yet he goes behind all the first round receivers. Take the discount.

Round 3 - Taylor, he has been dropping to the mid 3rd or even 4th round. Is there risk? Yeah, but if you start your draft with this 3 players you could be starting 3 first round picks against everyone else.

Round 4 - There are so many players I like in round 4, I will go Mixon. His floor feels like rb 15.

Round 5 - Drake London. I know the Falcons run a lot, but I expect their passing game to be very concentrated on London and Pitts.

Round 6 - Waller. I expect him to have a big year and be the Giants best passing game target.

Round 7 - David Montgomery, I don't expect him to have 18 touchdowns line Williams last year, but 10 touchdowns and over 1k total yards seems very attainable.

Honorable mentions.

Russell Wilson, Rashad Penny, Higbee, Ridder, Warren, Hodgins, and Renfrow.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Round 1 - Diggs, he seems to be the forgotten guy in the first round.

Boy howdy...the definition of an unsexy first rounder who over the past 3 years since he got traded to BUF has put up an average of 113/1396/10. I'll admit, I have Lamb ranked above.

 

[rockaction]

Boy howdy...the definition of an unsexy first rounder who over the past 3 years since he got traded to BUF has put up an average of 113/1396/10

I got him twice in drafts, at ten and thirteen. I'm really hoping the attitude towards the offense is truly okay and he's not just temporarily placated. I'm not feeling great about that pick, honestly. Don't think I care for it. We will see. I'm hoping msudaisy26 is spot-on here. I've always loved this guy's talent, now it's time to be a GM of his for once.

 

[FairWarning]

i think a couple of people are going to really out perform their draft slot

E. Elliot - The guy doesn't fumble and i think BB is going to like his work ethic. I can see him ending up in the 8td range easily
D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him
E. Moore - i think he can lead this team and be 1000 and 6tds pretty easy
B. Purdy - for those qb holdouts...in this offense i think he's going to get you a pretty solid floor of 16 pts every week

I think Purdy and Goff are great later round picks.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

D. Cook - I think the guy has a lot of juice left and being a vet is in their when they Rodgers needs him

I know the advanced metrics say 2022 was a fairly bad year for him. And I believe he's not the greatest pass protector either.

But $7M guaranteed feels like alot of $$ for an insurance policy. And it's not like Rodgers isn't familiar with Cook as a division foe. And to be fair, I got burned on evaluating a player based on the contract he was given last off-season (Chase Edmonds). But, he's NFL workload proven, unlike Edmonds.

This is likely a long way to say I simply have no idea about this backfield and I think that might apply across the board for the FF community...and uncertainty on draft day gets you dropped down the board.

Also, the similarities between the two from a career progression perspective are a bit eerie. Cook - 2nd round pick (41st overall). Was blowing up his rookie year before a torn ACL. Hall - same thing except he was the 36th overall pick.

 

[foxco]

Terrific thread.

Most of mine have been mentioned but I guess I'm kinda bullish on Miles Sanders where he's being drafted. Despite being on a potential dumpster fire of a team, he should be used extensively should he stay healthy and there just aren't that many RBs with a guaranteed high workload (Also see: James Conner). Think Diontae Johnson will outproduce his draft position and end up with a solid #2 type year. And, sigh, I guess I'll throw my hat in the Gabe Davis ring one last time and let Lucy yank that football away last second. Cause why not?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Terrific thread.

Most of mine have been mentioned but I guess I'm kinda bullish on Miles Sanders where he's being drafted. Despite being on a potential dumpster fire of a team, he should be used extensively should he stay healthy and there just aren't that many RBs with a guaranteed high workload (Also see: James Conner). Think Diontae Johnson will outproduce his draft position and end up with a solid #2 type year. And, sigh, I guess I'll throw my hat in the Gabe Davis ring one last time and let Lucy yank that football away last second. Cause why not?

A couple of things about the Panthers IMO.

1) When I look at the defense...I kind of feel that personnel wise, they actually bring quite a bit of heat to the table; Brian Burns, Jaycee Horn, Derek Brown, Jeremy Chinn. When you compliment that with some pretty solid 2nd tier players in Frankie Luvu, Donte Jackson, Shaq Thompson, I think they can surprise on that side of the ball. Adding Justin Houston last week as a situational pass rusher was also a sweet move.

2) Yes, the first two outings in pre-season have looked sketchy. But I think that's more in the moment thinking versus anything else. They have a QB who I think has the ability to adapt to the pro game very quickly and while the OL has looked terrible so far, they have talent, but they could simply be in a 'figuring it out stage' still.

All this is to say, I'm actually fairly bullish on CAR as a whole this year but maybe from October on. If the same applies to Sanders...I might start making offers for him come Week 4.

 

[JohnnyU]

Tucker Kraft is better than Luke Musgrave.
Michael Wilson is the best WR on the Cardinals
The Cowboys #2 RB currently isn’t on their roster
Justin Shorter will end up being a steal
Irv Smith will be a top 10 TE
Marvin Mims will finish in the top 5 for offensive rookie of the year
Michael Pittman won’t finish in the top 30 WRs
DeAndre Swift will be no better than he was in Detroit

 

[Jayded]

Freiermuth. He’s been TE14 and TE11 his first two years with meh QB play. Let’s say Diontae remembers how to play football and Pickens takes the expected leap. Pickett is more comfortable in year two and it’s entirely possible he has a big year. He was TE11 with only 2 TDs, so even a few more push him up the rankings and he’s been solid and cheap per the aim of this thread.

 

[rockaction]

All this is to say, I'm actually fairly bullish on CAR as a whole this year but maybe from October on. If the same applies to Sanders...

Dude, forget that offense. The Jets' second team (and it was the second team) curbstomped them. I mean, the Jets made their starters look like semi-pros, if that. I wouldn't touch that offense with a ten-foot pole. You've got one of the universally recognized worst lines, no viable receivers of note (Thielen and Chark aren't it anymore, IMO) and a rookie QB.

I roster Sanders in dynasty. I hope he does well. But I'm not sanguine about their chances this year on offense.

Defense, yes, they're a passable outfit.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Also - IMO, there is no pick too low for Jonathan Taylor.

Shane Stiechen is trying to establish a program in IND. The centerpiece of the offense is Richardson now. And Stiechen needs EVERYONE on that team, much less the offense, committed to that end goal of ensuring that he's the QB there for at least the next decade plus. Taylor has clearly been a distraction - and while I can certainly understand where he's coming from...this is a team that has WILDLY disappointed in 2021-2022 to where on-field org got blown up this off-season and Chris Ballard is hanging by a thread.

This is a situation where the players goals and the teams goals are woefully misaligned. It's a bad situation for Taylor for sure. And for his sake, I hope he is elsewhere in 2024 because he seems like a pretty good kid and there's likely more tread on those tires, but for a kid who stacked up close to 1000 touches at Wisconsin, his body might already be showing cracks. Building any part of the offense around Taylor now makes no sense for the Colts ESPECIALLY because Irsay has already closed the door on his future in IND.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Daniel Jones.

Another year in the new offense. Better receivers. A good tight end. I don't think last year was a ceiling.

I love the guys like Jones or Kirk Cousins that everyone loves to laugh at.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Also - IMO, there is no pick too low for Jonathan Taylor.

We've had a lot of talk internally about this. And I have lots of people I trust a lot that are right in line with your take.

Contract worries to Anthony Richardson to Stiechen and more.

 

[FFWhiskey]

Daniel Jones.

Another year in the new offense. Better receivers. A good tight end. I don't think last year was a ceiling.

I love the guys like Jones or Kirk Cousins that everyone loves to laugh at.

Kirk Cousins is going to be money this year. There's unanimous love for Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson. Jordan Addison goes Top 10 in Rookie drafts. KJ Osbourn is still a solid slot guy.

The defense forecasts to be porous again, everyone likes the skill players, but nobody likes Cousins even though he's been productive for years.


It's honestly a mystery to me, but I have no problem with Cousins leading my platoon if I go QBBC. Daniel Jones on the other hand, I can do without. He still needs to prove it to me for 1 more year before I start drinking that Kool-aid. But Kirk has more than paid his dues, imo.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

All this is to say, I'm actually fairly bullish on CAR as a whole this year but maybe from October on. If the same applies to Sanders...

Dude, forget that offense. The Jets' second team (and it was the second team) curbstomped them. I mean, the Jets made their starters look like semi-pros, if that. I wouldn't touch that offense with a ten-foot pole. You've got one of the universally recognized worst lines, no viable receivers of note (Thielen and Chark aren't it anymore, IMO) and a rookie QB.

I roster Sanders in dynasty. I hope he does well. But I'm not sanguine about their chances this year on offense.

Defense, yes, they're a passable outfit.

They call it buying low for a reason. That's not to say all 'buy lows' result in . But I've taken too many pre-season slumps/stars seriously and with these jokes of game action now - I mean what are we even watching (Desmond Ridder a 2nd year 3rd round pick in his first year as a starter has played but 1 series in 2 games?). I certainly agree that the WR weapons for CAR look weak, but I'm a believer in Bryce who I think will be a quick study and they'll start to understand what they do well with him under center.

 

[Joe Bryant]

It's honestly a mystery to me, but I have no problem with Cousins leading my platoon if I go QBBC.

I truly do think it's a style thing. He's just an easy guy to mock for some people. From the aw shucks to the being boring. Daniel Jones is the same.

People will always gravitate to the flash and wow.

In the meantime, Cousins will post fantastic stats. And for my league, stats are how we score things.