socrates
Footballguy
"Buy low, and sell high."
It is one of the core principles of building your dynasty franchise. The critical element is the ‘buy low’ part, and that requires some risk analysis. Anytime you are buying low, you must consider that there is a reason compelling the other owner to sell his investment at a loss. The key is not buying when the player is doing well, it's buying when the player is struggling or injured, but is positioned to do well in the future. This is the time of the year to seize that opportunity. A dynasty owner who is not getting the expected return on his investment may sell low to bolster his team for a playoff run. A dynasty owner in win-now mode is your target, but make the offer both tempting and realistic. Don't burn your bridge with an insulting offer.
Last week, I suggested buying low in dynasty on Jonathan Taylor. I worked a deal to acquire Taylor, but it was not for pennies on the dollar. Those types of deals rarely exist, and even if you do make them, other owners will be leery of making trades with you in the future. I moved James Robinson for Taylor. You may be wondering why I would give up on Robinson. I like Robinson. He has been incredibly reliable and consistent, and I believe he is very talented. However, I view him as a classic "sell-high" player. The Jaguars are a team in flux. Even so, I believe Robinson fits into their future plans, but I do not think he is a franchise-type RB. Taylor, on the other hand, I believe can be. If I have made the wrong gamble, I can live with it. My analysis was sound based on my evaluation of both players. It is a bit like playing the stock market: not all of your investments will hit and payout. You digest information and try to make sound evaluations based on the best information available to you. In the end, this is your team, so make decisions based on your assessments and evaluations.
This week, as we approach the fantasy playoffs, I will examine a few more players who I think are good dynasty buy-low investments.
Joe Burrow: He suffered a devastating knee injury, and it is unclear how long it will take to recover. Burrow may well miss the first part of next season. By all early reports, however, he is expected to make a full recovery, We have seen how effective Burrow can be, and I like the direction the Cincinnati offense is going. Burrow has franchise QB written all over him, and you may be able to acquire him at a substantial discount.
Dak Prescott: Speaking of injured QBs, Dak has languished on some poor sap's roster in your league, and if that owner somehow still managed to put himself in a position to advance to the playoffs, he may take this opportunity to bail on Dak and the struggling Dallas Cowboys. There is no guarantee that Dak will return to the Cowboys in 2021. I was excited to see what Dak would achieve this season with a myriad of exciting weapons. I would be just as excited in 2021. If Dak exits Dallas, I might be a little less excited, but my suspicion is he stays. Jerry isn't likely to allow a top ten QB to walk.
Saquon Barkley: It may be difficult to acquire Barkley at much of a discount in most leagues, but it is worth a try. Barkley should return to top form, but this was his second straight injury-shortened season. Barkley played 13 games and just barely topped 1,000 yards rushing last year as he dealt with a high ankle sprain. We have seen Gurley as an example of a player who never returned to form after injury, so there are certainly no guarantees with Barkley. However, if you are able to work a deal to add Barkley to your team, I trust he will come back strong next season.
Joe Mixon: Mixon owners are understandably frustrated, and now, with Burrow out, Mixon's hopeful eventual return after a stint on IR is even less appetizing. Nonetheless, Mixon's 2021 prospects remain high. The Bengals' offense is ascending, and Mixon should be a real beneficiary. This is the time to make a strong bid to acquire Mixon for 2021.
Ezekiel Elliott: The talk out of Dallas, especially after a Thanksgiving day dud, is Zeke is done as an elite RB. He has certainly struggled. The O-line has not done Zeke many favors, and the team has definitely missed Dak, but much of this falls squarely on Elliott. He has gutted it out through a hamstring injury, and perhaps that is a factor. Still, Elliott is young and playing for what could potentially be one of the elite offenses in the league. I am buying Elliott where I can, and he should come at a substantial discount.
Courtland Sutton: The Broncos are in desperate need of top-tier talent at QB, but I love the potential of a Sutton-Jeudy duo in the mile-high city. Jeudy has not really broken out yet, and he would be another dynasty target to pursue, but Sutton is a definite buy-low target as he recovers from a torn ACL. Jeudy has elite route running skills, hands and vision, but Sutton's size, physicality, leaping ability, body control and catch radius makes him a nightmare matchup for opposing corners. If you can pry away Sutton at a discount, you could get a wideout who is ready to blossom - assuming Elway and the the Broncos can get some quality QB play.
Henry Ruggs: Nelson Agholor is the top wideout for the Raiders, but I believe he is just keeping the dynasty seat warm for an eventual Ruggs breakout. Carr has made a nice comeback after some talk that he may lose his starting gig, and the Raiders look like an ascending offense. Ruggs has Tyreek Hill-like speed and quickness. That speed has not translated to NFL success so far, and dynasty owners in win-now mode might be ready to give Ruggs up at a discount. I would be careful not to overpay, but I believe some dynasty owners might be willing to sell pretty low.
Marquise Brown: Brown seems to be an afterthought in a struggling Ravens' passing game, and I am not completely sold on Lamar Jackson as an elite passing talent. However, Jackson does have the ability to get the ball downfield. Dez and Snead are merely placeholders in this offense. I like Brown to eventually emerge, and this is your opportunity to grab him at a nice discount.
Darnell Mooney: The Chicago offense has struggled this season, and I'm not sure it will improve considerably in 2021, but if it does, I like Mooney as a player who can emerge in the shadows of Robinson. Mooney may be sitting on some waiver wires, and even where he is owned, you may be able to get him as a mere throw-in player in a deal.
George Kittle: Kittle owners know what they have in Kittle, so you are unlikely to get him at much of a discount in dynasty, but if you have TE depth and can offer another top TE to the Kittle owner, perhaps you can improve at the position for 2021. I am thinking it would take an offer such as Mark Andrews and a fringe player for Kittle, but once Kittle returns, that deal will payoff for you.
Good luck!
Remember these foundational principles of building your dynasty franchise:
Diversify. Balance risk and reward, Have plenty of high-upside, high-ceiling players, but balance that with some reliable, consistent high-floor players.
If a trade offer sounds too good to be true, it might be, but be ready to smash that accept button!
Buy low, and sell high.
Work the waiver wire all season, but save some FAAB for the stretch run. If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Don't be afraid to take risks. Too many dynasty owners see their team languish due to roster paralysis. Don't give up on a player too soon, but don't hang on unnecessarily, either. If this week's waiver wire add does not pan out, cut your losses and move onto the next prospect. Try to stay ahead of the bidding wars. Monitor waiver wire players and injuries for potential breakouts, and add them a week early.
Waste no roster spots. I see owners carrying three kickers and two defenses. Use those roster spots for potential emerging players. There is nothing worse than watching a player all season, then losing out on the waiver wire because you waited too long to pick him up.
It is one of the core principles of building your dynasty franchise. The critical element is the ‘buy low’ part, and that requires some risk analysis. Anytime you are buying low, you must consider that there is a reason compelling the other owner to sell his investment at a loss. The key is not buying when the player is doing well, it's buying when the player is struggling or injured, but is positioned to do well in the future. This is the time of the year to seize that opportunity. A dynasty owner who is not getting the expected return on his investment may sell low to bolster his team for a playoff run. A dynasty owner in win-now mode is your target, but make the offer both tempting and realistic. Don't burn your bridge with an insulting offer.
Last week, I suggested buying low in dynasty on Jonathan Taylor. I worked a deal to acquire Taylor, but it was not for pennies on the dollar. Those types of deals rarely exist, and even if you do make them, other owners will be leery of making trades with you in the future. I moved James Robinson for Taylor. You may be wondering why I would give up on Robinson. I like Robinson. He has been incredibly reliable and consistent, and I believe he is very talented. However, I view him as a classic "sell-high" player. The Jaguars are a team in flux. Even so, I believe Robinson fits into their future plans, but I do not think he is a franchise-type RB. Taylor, on the other hand, I believe can be. If I have made the wrong gamble, I can live with it. My analysis was sound based on my evaluation of both players. It is a bit like playing the stock market: not all of your investments will hit and payout. You digest information and try to make sound evaluations based on the best information available to you. In the end, this is your team, so make decisions based on your assessments and evaluations.
This week, as we approach the fantasy playoffs, I will examine a few more players who I think are good dynasty buy-low investments.
Joe Burrow: He suffered a devastating knee injury, and it is unclear how long it will take to recover. Burrow may well miss the first part of next season. By all early reports, however, he is expected to make a full recovery, We have seen how effective Burrow can be, and I like the direction the Cincinnati offense is going. Burrow has franchise QB written all over him, and you may be able to acquire him at a substantial discount.
Dak Prescott: Speaking of injured QBs, Dak has languished on some poor sap's roster in your league, and if that owner somehow still managed to put himself in a position to advance to the playoffs, he may take this opportunity to bail on Dak and the struggling Dallas Cowboys. There is no guarantee that Dak will return to the Cowboys in 2021. I was excited to see what Dak would achieve this season with a myriad of exciting weapons. I would be just as excited in 2021. If Dak exits Dallas, I might be a little less excited, but my suspicion is he stays. Jerry isn't likely to allow a top ten QB to walk.
Saquon Barkley: It may be difficult to acquire Barkley at much of a discount in most leagues, but it is worth a try. Barkley should return to top form, but this was his second straight injury-shortened season. Barkley played 13 games and just barely topped 1,000 yards rushing last year as he dealt with a high ankle sprain. We have seen Gurley as an example of a player who never returned to form after injury, so there are certainly no guarantees with Barkley. However, if you are able to work a deal to add Barkley to your team, I trust he will come back strong next season.
Joe Mixon: Mixon owners are understandably frustrated, and now, with Burrow out, Mixon's hopeful eventual return after a stint on IR is even less appetizing. Nonetheless, Mixon's 2021 prospects remain high. The Bengals' offense is ascending, and Mixon should be a real beneficiary. This is the time to make a strong bid to acquire Mixon for 2021.
Ezekiel Elliott: The talk out of Dallas, especially after a Thanksgiving day dud, is Zeke is done as an elite RB. He has certainly struggled. The O-line has not done Zeke many favors, and the team has definitely missed Dak, but much of this falls squarely on Elliott. He has gutted it out through a hamstring injury, and perhaps that is a factor. Still, Elliott is young and playing for what could potentially be one of the elite offenses in the league. I am buying Elliott where I can, and he should come at a substantial discount.
Courtland Sutton: The Broncos are in desperate need of top-tier talent at QB, but I love the potential of a Sutton-Jeudy duo in the mile-high city. Jeudy has not really broken out yet, and he would be another dynasty target to pursue, but Sutton is a definite buy-low target as he recovers from a torn ACL. Jeudy has elite route running skills, hands and vision, but Sutton's size, physicality, leaping ability, body control and catch radius makes him a nightmare matchup for opposing corners. If you can pry away Sutton at a discount, you could get a wideout who is ready to blossom - assuming Elway and the the Broncos can get some quality QB play.
Henry Ruggs: Nelson Agholor is the top wideout for the Raiders, but I believe he is just keeping the dynasty seat warm for an eventual Ruggs breakout. Carr has made a nice comeback after some talk that he may lose his starting gig, and the Raiders look like an ascending offense. Ruggs has Tyreek Hill-like speed and quickness. That speed has not translated to NFL success so far, and dynasty owners in win-now mode might be ready to give Ruggs up at a discount. I would be careful not to overpay, but I believe some dynasty owners might be willing to sell pretty low.
Marquise Brown: Brown seems to be an afterthought in a struggling Ravens' passing game, and I am not completely sold on Lamar Jackson as an elite passing talent. However, Jackson does have the ability to get the ball downfield. Dez and Snead are merely placeholders in this offense. I like Brown to eventually emerge, and this is your opportunity to grab him at a nice discount.
Darnell Mooney: The Chicago offense has struggled this season, and I'm not sure it will improve considerably in 2021, but if it does, I like Mooney as a player who can emerge in the shadows of Robinson. Mooney may be sitting on some waiver wires, and even where he is owned, you may be able to get him as a mere throw-in player in a deal.
George Kittle: Kittle owners know what they have in Kittle, so you are unlikely to get him at much of a discount in dynasty, but if you have TE depth and can offer another top TE to the Kittle owner, perhaps you can improve at the position for 2021. I am thinking it would take an offer such as Mark Andrews and a fringe player for Kittle, but once Kittle returns, that deal will payoff for you.
Good luck!
Remember these foundational principles of building your dynasty franchise:
Diversify. Balance risk and reward, Have plenty of high-upside, high-ceiling players, but balance that with some reliable, consistent high-floor players.
If a trade offer sounds too good to be true, it might be, but be ready to smash that accept button!
Buy low, and sell high.
Work the waiver wire all season, but save some FAAB for the stretch run. If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Don't be afraid to take risks. Too many dynasty owners see their team languish due to roster paralysis. Don't give up on a player too soon, but don't hang on unnecessarily, either. If this week's waiver wire add does not pan out, cut your losses and move onto the next prospect. Try to stay ahead of the bidding wars. Monitor waiver wire players and injuries for potential breakouts, and add them a week early.
Waste no roster spots. I see owners carrying three kickers and two defenses. Use those roster spots for potential emerging players. There is nothing worse than watching a player all season, then losing out on the waiver wire because you waited too long to pick him up.