Dynasty Debate (1 Viewer)

[Mr. Brownstone]

They are both "back-ups" on their respective teams, and are both expected to be important parts of their teams. MJD seems to have a better surrounding cast, but McFadden is probably the more talented back. Who do you like for their prospects in the NFL?

McFaddenMJD

I'm not even sure MJD is anything special to begin with..do people realize that Greg Jones is coming back this year and looks great so far in preseason? So, adding another RB to the RBBC mix in Jax doesn't scare anyone?!

:X

I just don't get it..MJD gets a lot of love on this board, and he's part of the biggest RBBC in the entire NFL, WORSE than the RBBC with the Giants..and yet people think MJD's stats will actually go up this year??

wow..I don't see that happening at all..

and just looking at a few runs by McFadden so far in preseason,you know he's going to be something special down the road..the guy is extremely talented!

 

[Ed Wood]

Raider fan, but I'd take MJD simply because he's proven he can play very well at the NFL level.

 

[TheFanatic]

They are both "back-ups" on their respective teams, and are both expected to be important parts of their teams. MJD seems to have a better surrounding cast, but McFadden is probably the more talented back. Who do you like for their prospects in the NFL?

McFaddenMJD

I'm not even sure MJD is anything special to begin with..do people realize that Greg Jones is coming back this year and looks great so far in preseason? So, adding another RB to the RBBC mix in Jax doesn't scare anyone?!



I just don't get it..MJD gets a lot of love on this board, and he's part of the biggest RBBC in the entire NFL, WORSE than the RBBC with the Giants..and yet people think MJD's stats will actually go up this year??

wow..I don't see that happening at all..

and just looking at a few runs by McFadden so far in preseason,you know he's going to be something special down the road..the guy is extremely talented!

I thought that too. What's he got like 2600 total yards and double digit TD's his first 2 years and done so on limited touches. Yeah, the guy can only go down!?!?!

 

[jwb]

I just picked in a 12-team dynasty startup at 2.01. The choice was between these two - I took MJD.

I just cannot ignore what he has done on limited touches. I've already stated in this thread that I think RBBC is going to be the norm everywhere, and I want a guy that I don't have to worry about in that respect. MJD it is. McFadden very may well be that special type of player too, but for my first pick in a dynasty startup, I'll take what I see as the sure points.

Edit: to show you how close this was in my mind, I traded MJD to the guy who had the next pick for a 5-slot move in the 4th. I then took McFadden.

 

[GDogg]

Just give it to me in ones so I can tip the girls.

BTW, McFadden haters - please educate yourself: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=32...adden&vt=lf

Notice how many times guys can't bring him down or even slow him down, how many times he plows through guys into the end zone, the little moves he makes in the hole to make defenders look silly and how good he is at setting up and using his blocks.

Not elusive, are you kidding?

"Guys that can score lots of points on limited touches will be the most sought after players." Yeah, like Darren McFadden.

His low end is what MJD has done the last two years.

Based on what?Is McFadden a better prospect than Reggie Bush was when Bush was coming out of college? Bush's low end (or, maybe it's his high end for all we know) is well below what Drew has done the last two years.

 

[GDogg]

I'm not even sure MJD is anything special to begin with..do people realize that Greg Jones is coming back this year and looks great so far in preseason? So, adding another RB to the RBBC mix in Jax doesn't scare anyone?!



I just don't get it..MJD gets a lot of love on this board, and he's part of the biggest RBBC in the entire NFL, WORSE than the RBBC with the Giants..and yet people think MJD's stats will actually go up this year??

wow..I don't see that happening at all..

and just looking at a few runs by McFadden so far in preseason,you know he's going to be something special down the road..the guy is extremely talented!

Coming back from where? He was on the team the entire season last year and played in every game. He looked "great" in the preseason last year. How did that work out for him?You don't think Drew is anything special to begin with? Have you ever watched him play?

 

[GDogg]

They are both "back-ups" on their respective teams, and are both expected to be important parts of their teams. MJD seems to have a better surrounding cast, but McFadden is probably the more talented back. Who do you like for their prospects in the NFL?

No way is McFadden the more talented RB.Drew has also proven it on the NFL level. McFadden looks pretty good in the preseason.

from a pure talent perspective, i don't see how you can say this. i'm far from the biggest mcfadden fan, but its pretty clear the kid's got top level talent. how it translates to the nfl is yet to be seen.i'm still curious to see how mjd's game translates when he gets more than 10-12 touches/game.

You don't see how I can say what? Drew is essentially just as fast as McFadden (4.33 40 vs. 4.39 40), is stronger, runs with greater power, doesn't fumble the ball 1.5 times per game and is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football. I'll reserve my judgment on McFadden until he plays a year or two in the NFL.As of now, I don't see how anyone can possibly say that McFadden is more talented than Drew. Which of his talents exceed Drew's? His height?

 

[Domination]

Just give it to me in ones so I can tip the girls.

BTW, McFadden haters - please educate yourself: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=32...adden&vt=lf

Notice how many times guys can't bring him down or even slow him down, how many times he plows through guys into the end zone, the little moves he makes in the hole to make defenders look silly and how good he is at setting up and using his blocks.

Not elusive, are you kidding?

"Guys that can score lots of points on limited touches will be the most sought after players." Yeah, like Darren McFadden.

His low end is what MJD has done the last two years.

Based on what?Is McFadden a better prospect than Reggie Bush was when Bush was coming out of college? Bush's low end (or, maybe it's his high end for all we know) is well below what Drew has done the last two years.

This is the question that I keep asking myself, as I think that Bush and McFadden remind me alot of each other.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Just give it to me in ones so I can tip the girls.

BTW, McFadden haters - please educate yourself: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=32...adden&vt=lf

Notice how many times guys can't bring him down or even slow him down, how many times he plows through guys into the end zone, the little moves he makes in the hole to make defenders look silly and how good he is at setting up and using his blocks.

Not elusive, are you kidding?

"Guys that can score lots of points on limited touches will be the most sought after players." Yeah, like Darren McFadden.

His low end is what MJD has done the last two years.

Based on what?Is McFadden a better prospect than Reggie Bush was when Bush was coming out of college? Bush's low end (or, maybe it's his high end for all we know) is well below what Drew has done the last two years.

This is the question that I keep asking myself, as I think that Bush and McFadden remind me alot of each other.

Please explain, i see very few similarities, if any.

 

[Domination]

Just give it to me in ones so I can tip the girls.

BTW, McFadden haters - please educate yourself: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=32...adden&vt=lf

Notice how many times guys can't bring him down or even slow him down, how many times he plows through guys into the end zone, the little moves he makes in the hole to make defenders look silly and how good he is at setting up and using his blocks.

Not elusive, are you kidding?

"Guys that can score lots of points on limited touches will be the most sought after players." Yeah, like Darren McFadden.

His low end is what MJD has done the last two years.

Based on what?Is McFadden a better prospect than Reggie Bush was when Bush was coming out of college? Bush's low end (or, maybe it's his high end for all we know) is well below what Drew has done the last two years.

This is the question that I keep asking myself, as I think that Bush and McFadden remind me alot of each other.

Please explain, i see very few similarities, if any.

I look at size and running style. I think that they both prefer to run outside and avoid contact. Whereas someone like MJD can run inside or out, and is more willing to take on contact.

 

[Avery]

Just give it to me in ones so I can tip the girls.

BTW, McFadden haters - please educate yourself: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=32...adden&vt=lf

Notice how many times guys can't bring him down or even slow him down, how many times he plows through guys into the end zone, the little moves he makes in the hole to make defenders look silly and how good he is at setting up and using his blocks.

Not elusive, are you kidding?

"Guys that can score lots of points on limited touches will be the most sought after players." Yeah, like Darren McFadden.

His low end is what MJD has done the last two years.

Based on what?Is McFadden a better prospect than Reggie Bush was when Bush was coming out of college? Bush's low end (or, maybe it's his high end for all we know) is well below what Drew has done the last two years.

This is the question that I keep asking myself, as I think that Bush and McFadden remind me alot of each other.

Please explain, i see very few similarities, if any.

I look at size and running style. I think that they both prefer to run outside and avoid contact. Whereas someone like MJD can run inside or out, and is more willing to take on contact.

Not trying to be sarcastic, but have you actually watched McFadden play?

 

[Domination]

Just give it to me in ones so I can tip the girls.

BTW, McFadden haters - please educate yourself: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=32...adden&vt=lf

Notice how many times guys can't bring him down or even slow him down, how many times he plows through guys into the end zone, the little moves he makes in the hole to make defenders look silly and how good he is at setting up and using his blocks.

Not elusive, are you kidding?

"Guys that can score lots of points on limited touches will be the most sought after players." Yeah, like Darren McFadden.

His low end is what MJD has done the last two years.

Based on what?Is McFadden a better prospect than Reggie Bush was when Bush was coming out of college? Bush's low end (or, maybe it's his high end for all we know) is well below what Drew has done the last two years.

This is the question that I keep asking myself, as I think that Bush and McFadden remind me alot of each other.

Please explain, i see very few similarities, if any.

I look at size and running style. I think that they both prefer to run outside and avoid contact. Whereas someone like MJD can run inside or out, and is more willing to take on contact.

Not trying to be sarcastic, but have you actually watched McFadden play?

I guess I should be asking you the same, as I wasn't the only one who felt this way. It was a major detraction coming up on the draft.

 

[geoff8695]

I don't know that McFadden is really more talented. I'm not trying to knock DMac, it just seems to me that MJD is really, really good.

That being said, Del Rio and the Jaguars have made it clear that they don't expect to make MJD a full-time feature back. At his size they like him in the role he has.

I demand a I've actually seen Del Rio say that Taylor can't continue to maintain his skills indefinitely and then go on to say, "...at some point Fred will get less and Maurice will get more..."

 

[Burning Sensation]

Just give it to me in ones so I can tip the girls.

BTW, McFadden haters - please educate yourself: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=32...adden&vt=lf

Notice how many times guys can't bring him down or even slow him down, how many times he plows through guys into the end zone, the little moves he makes in the hole to make defenders look silly and how good he is at setting up and using his blocks.

Not elusive, are you kidding?

"Guys that can score lots of points on limited touches will be the most sought after players." Yeah, like Darren McFadden.

His low end is what MJD has done the last two years.

Based on what?Is McFadden a better prospect than Reggie Bush was when Bush was coming out of college? Bush's low end (or, maybe it's his high end for all we know) is well below what Drew has done the last two years.

This is the question that I keep asking myself, as I think that Bush and McFadden remind me alot of each other.

Please explain, i see very few similarities, if any.

I look at size and running style. I think that they both prefer to run outside and avoid contact. Whereas someone like MJD can run inside or out, and is more willing to take on contact.

Not sure you were watching the same players I was. Mcfadden has never shyed away from contact. He is more of a North/South runner who hits the hole hard and quick. Bush is a dancer, and has never seen a hole at the line of scrimmage he liked. Bush is more WR than RB. Not to mention Mcfadden is closer in size to AD than Bush. Oh yeah, Mcfadden is also faster than Bush. As far as MJD, he is more likely to avoid contact than DMac, for better or worse.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I demand a

You ain't getting one - because there isn't one.

 

[switz]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study. <_< He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

 

[switz]

I don't know that McFadden is really more talented. I'm not trying to knock DMac, it just seems to me that MJD is really, really good.

That being said, Del Rio and the Jaguars have made it clear that they don't expect to make MJD a full-time feature back. At his size they like him in the role he has.

I demand a <_< I've actually seen Del Rio say that Taylor can't continue to maintain his skills indefinitely and then go on to say, "...at some point Fred will get less and Maurice will get more..."

I wish I could find a link, but I have heard that as well....

 

[switz]

it almost never makes sense to draft a good prospect who might become an elite player over an established elite player in the prime of his career. It's like taking a 65% chance at a dollar instead of a 100% chance at a dollar. The risk/reward equation clearly favors MJD here.

EBF, we rarely disagree when it comes to RBs... and I know your concern with McFadden is his BMI, while MJD has a great BMI. I don't even think McFadden is the best RB in the class, but come on.... "an established elite player in the prime of his career"? He's played 2 years, he was much less impactful last season than his rookie year, he's slotted for <200 carries probably for his career. McFadden on the other hand is coming in, has looked great in the preseason, is on a team that excels at running the ball. I see a much higher upside for RunDMC than MJD.

 

[EBF]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study. <_< He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

You're a good poster, but sometimes your stubborness works against you. You've always been an MJD skeptic, so of course you're inclined to downplay his success. On the flipside, you've always been an Addai fan, so you exaggerate his accomplishments.I didn't really like either of these guys coming out of school and I don't own either of them on any of my dynasty teams. That said, I'm far more impressed by what MJD has accomplished so far in the NFL. If you're going to continually defend Addai as an elite back, I think you almost have to do the same for MJD. Your arguments against him are weak. His stats were very strong last year even if they weren't quite on par with his stellar rookie campaign. 4.6 YPC is great and 9 rushing TDs is a lot for a guy who only got 167 carries. I think any objective observer has to be very impressed by what MJD has done in his first two seasons of pro ball.

 

[EBF]

it almost never makes sense to draft a good prospect who might become an elite player over an established elite player in the prime of his career. It's like taking a 65% chance at a dollar instead of a 100% chance at a dollar. The risk/reward equation clearly favors MJD here.

EBF, we rarely disagree when it comes to RBs... and I know your concern with McFadden is his BMI, while MJD has a great BMI. I don't even think McFadden is the best RB in the class, but come on.... "an established elite player in the prime of his career"? He's played 2 years, he was much less impactful last season than his rookie year, he's slotted for <200 carries probably for his career. McFadden on the other hand is coming in, has looked great in the preseason, is on a team that excels at running the ball. I see a much higher upside for RunDMC than MJD.

I don't agree with your take at all. MJD is nothing but upside. Think about it. He has played two seasons in a full-blown RBBC and he's still considered a consensus top 15 redraft back. That tells you how lights out his play has been. He has nowhere to go but up from here. Taylor is old. He'll be lucky to play another two seasons. The other guys on the roster are unproven and not that exciting. It's not difficult to imagine a scenario where MJD's value balloons in the near future. If he can maintain his career average of fantasy points/touch over a greater number of touches then he can smash his ADP and become a top 3 back like Westbrook. There's no downside since the worst case scenario is that he remains in a RBBC and continues to produce the fringe RB1 numbers that are currently expected of him. As for McFadden, I don't think he has "looked great" in the preseason. I watched the highlight clips of his runs in both of his first two games. I didn't see anything exceptional. He might become a solid pro in time, but there's a huge bust factor there that doesn't exist with MJD. Moreover, I don't see how you can say his upside is higher than a player who has the highest fantasy points/touch average of any back in the league. You can make a pretty strong argument that MJD has the highest upside of any RB in the NFL.Honestly, I just think you don't like MJD and you look for any reason to believe he's overrated in the face of strong evidence that points in the opposite direction.

 

[switz]

it almost never makes sense to draft a good prospect who might become an elite player over an established elite player in the prime of his career. It's like taking a 65% chance at a dollar instead of a 100% chance at a dollar. The risk/reward equation clearly favors MJD here.

EBF, we rarely disagree when it comes to RBs... and I know your concern with McFadden is his BMI, while MJD has a great BMI. I don't even think McFadden is the best RB in the class, but come on.... "an established elite player in the prime of his career"? He's played 2 years, he was much less impactful last season than his rookie year, he's slotted for <200 carries probably for his career. McFadden on the other hand is coming in, has looked great in the preseason, is on a team that excels at running the ball. I see a much higher upside for RunDMC than MJD.

I don't agree with your take at all. MJD is nothing but upside. Think about it. He has played two seasons in a full-blown RBBC and he's still considered a consensus top 15 redraft back. That tells you how lights out his play has been. He has nowhere to go but up from here. Taylor is old. He'll be lucky to play another two seasons. The other guys on the roster are unproven and not that exciting. It's not difficult to imagine a scenario where MJD's value balloons in the near future. If he can maintain his career average of fantasy points/touch over a greater number of touches then he can smash his ADP and become a top 3 back like Westbrook. There's no downside since the worst case scenario is that he remains in a RBBC and continues to produce the fringe RB1 numbers that are currently expected of him.

But I think his upside is the downside you promote here. He's probably not going to be as good with 250-300 carries. His decline this past season, while still giving him decent stats, was drastic. Adding to his workload would only expediate his statistical decline IMO.

As for McFadden, I don't think he has "looked great" in the preseason. I watched the highlight clips of his runs in both of his first two games. I didn't see anything exceptional. He might become a solid pro in time, but there's a huge bust factor there that doesn't exist with MJD. Moreover, I don't see how you can say his upside is higher than a player who has the highest fantasy points/touch average of any back in the league. You can make a pretty strong argument that MJD has the highest upside of any RB in the NFL.

I don't see it the way you do. I see MJD declining in performance the more carries he gets. As for McFadden - I was on your side, until seeing him play. I'm not sure after watching him that you could say there is a huge bust factor. MJD has shown so far that he's not a 200 carry back, forget 300. McFadden - we don't know. But he handled a lot of carries in college well. None of the Pro Scouts seemed to think he was a bust risk at all. I think what you attribute to me below is more attributable to you re: McFadden. To say you weren't impressed at all by his preseason work is just crazy.

Honestly, I just think you don't like MJD and you look for any reason to believe he's overrated in the face of strong evidence that points in the opposite direction.

Not at all... I don't have a purpose in my opinion of MJD - it is what it is. You're right in that I do think he's overrated. People talk about him as a top-5 dynasty back... he was much worse in year 2 than year 1, and he's yet to show he can handle the load. There is no optimism there.

 

[EBF]

But I think his upside is the downside you promote here. He's probably not going to be as good with 250-300 carries. His decline this past season, while still giving him decent stats, was drastic. Adding to his workload would only expediate his statistical decline IMO.

Pure conjecture. Even with a dip, his YPC and TD/carry still ranked him among the best RBs in the NFL last year.Furthemore, there's no way of knowing that his decreased YPC had anything to do with his workload. You're just guessing because it supports your point.This argument seems especially suspect coming from you since you repeatedly defend Joseph Addai as an elite back despite the fact that his YPC also fell from his rookie year to his sophomore year. Why aren't you bothered by Addai's decline if you find MJD's so troubling? Maybe because you're looking for results that support your pre-existing personal bias.

MJD has shown so far that he's not a 200 carry back, forget 300.

Once again, pure speculation. The fact that he's been splitting carries with one of the top 20 rushers in the history of the NFL doesn't say anything about his ability to handle 200-300 carries. Just because a player hasn't handled a heavy workload doesn't mean he can't. Guys like Brian Westbrook and Tiki Barber moved from RBBC roles to workhorse roles. There's a probability that Drew can do the same.

I think what you attribute to me below is more attributable to you re: McFadden. To say you weren't impressed at all by his preseason work is just crazy.

He hasn't made a special run all preseason. Getting good yardage on 18 carries against vanilla defenses and backups doesn't eliminate the possibility of him being a bust. I watched the clips and I honestly didn't see anything that impressed me. Even if I did, it wouldn't really mean much. You don't close the book on a guy based on how he performed in two preseason games during his rookie season. Anyhow, with MJD there's a relatively narrow range of possible outcomes. You're either going to get a top 15 back or better. He has already established a very high floor.With McFadden, there's no telling what you're going to get. He could be great or he could be a colossal flop.Given that both players appear to offer similar upside and that one has already established his effectiveness in the NFL, there's little reason to favor McFadden at this juncture.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study. He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

You're a good poster, but sometimes your stubborness works against you. You've always been an MJD skeptic, so of course you're inclined to downplay his success. On the flipside, you've always been an Addai fan, so you exaggerate his accomplishments.

MJD has averaged more yards per carry, more yards per catch, and has scored more TD's than Addai in their two years. This despite the fact that Addai is in a superior situation. Everyone is guilty of at least a little bias from time to time, but Switz takes it to a whole new level. He rarely gives an objective opinion, and it makes it hard for me to take anything he says seriously.

 

[Domination]

i guess the biggest surprise to me about this whole thread, is that no one has come out and said that McFadden will be a stud. Everyone seems to think that he could be good, but not anything more than that.

 

[kremenull]

Not even close......D-Mac Baaaaaaby! The next......D-Mac! Will create his own mold.

 

[Jayrod]

I have an outside chance of landing both of these guys in my dynasty league where I already have MJD and have the #2 rookie pick.

IMAGINE THE POSSIBILITIES!!!!

 

[switz]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study. He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

You're a good poster, but sometimes your stubborness works against you. You've always been an MJD skeptic, so of course you're inclined to downplay his success. On the flipside, you've always been an Addai fan, so you exaggerate his accomplishments.

MJD has averaged more yards per carry, more yards per catch, and has scored more TD's than Addai in their two years. This despite the fact that Addai is in a superior situation. Everyone is guilty of at least a little bias from time to time, but Switz takes it to a whole new level. He rarely gives an objective opinion, and it makes it hard for me to take anything he says seriously.

Problem is when people try to look at players out of context. It's funny to hear how much credit is given to Addai's situation, while MJDs is totally ignored. And people think I look at things with an angle?MJD plays behind one of the best run blocking OLs in the league. Addai plays behind a pass blocking line, there's a huge difference.Also, Addai has had more carries each season than MJD. It is much easier to have a high YPC that way. FYI through the first 7 games last season, Addai had a higher YPC.There is a lot more to being an RB than YPC anyway.

 

[Ned]

i'm still curious to see how mjd's game translates when he gets more than 10-12 touches/game.

Games with 15 or more touches:2006

Week 3 - 13/103, 4/32, 1 TD

Week 7 - 8/10, 7/58, 1 TD

Week 8 - 21/77, 3/20

Week 14 - 15/166, 1/15, 2 TD's

Week 15 - 25/98, 3/47, 1 TD

Week 16 - 19/131, 6/41, 2 TD's

Week 17 - 12/46, 4/16, 1 TD

2007

Week 3 - 15/37, 2/18

Week 6 - 12/125, 4/59, 2 TD's

Week 7 - 13/52, 3/17, 1 TD

Week 10 - 19/101, 3/28, 1 TD

Week 15 - 12/69, 5/30

Week 16 - 10/44, 6/96, 1 TD

Over these 13 games he averaged:

14.9/81.5 rushing (5.5 yd/carry), 3.9/36.7 (9.4 yd/catch) & 1.0 TD's

That's 18.8 touches for 118.2 yards and a full TD per game when getting at least 15 touches.

For a full season, that's 238/1,304 rushing, 62/587 receiving & 16 TD's

If you only count games where he had at least 18 touches (4 games), he averages:

21/102 rush, 3.8/34 rec, 1 TD

Full season = 336/1,632 rush, 61/544 rec, 16 TD's

While you can't just assume he can keep up this pace for a full season, it gives us a pretty good idea of what he can do. The stretch in 2006 from week 14-17 is probably the best indication where he averaged 17.8/110, 3.5/30, 1.5 TD's

No matter how you slice it, his production is sick even when he gets a "full" load.

thanks for the research.my only issue is that even though this passes the touches/game test, is this really how he'll be used being the unquestioned starter? there are a lot of games in this sample set that don't seem to fit the starter criteria. i bolded the ones that seem to fit better into that starter definition. he still performed well, i'm just not sure it's a big enough sample size.

all that said, i want to be clear that i think mjd is for real. i just don't know that he's as elite as everyone's saying. "elite" is thrown around far too loosely these days...

 

[Domination]

i'm still curious to see how mjd's game translates when he gets more than 10-12 touches/game.

Games with 15 or more touches:2006

Week 3 - 13/103, 4/32, 1 TD

Week 7 - 8/10, 7/58, 1 TD

Week 8 - 21/77, 3/20

Week 14 - 15/166, 1/15, 2 TD's

Week 15 - 25/98, 3/47, 1 TD

Week 16 - 19/131, 6/41, 2 TD's

Week 17 - 12/46, 4/16, 1 TD

2007

Week 3 - 15/37, 2/18

Week 6 - 12/125, 4/59, 2 TD's

Week 7 - 13/52, 3/17, 1 TD

Week 10 - 19/101, 3/28, 1 TD

Week 15 - 12/69, 5/30

Week 16 - 10/44, 6/96, 1 TD

Over these 13 games he averaged:

14.9/81.5 rushing (5.5 yd/carry), 3.9/36.7 (9.4 yd/catch) & 1.0 TD's

That's 18.8 touches for 118.2 yards and a full TD per game when getting at least 15 touches.

For a full season, that's 238/1,304 rushing, 62/587 receiving & 16 TD's

If you only count games where he had at least 18 touches (4 games), he averages:

21/102 rush, 3.8/34 rec, 1 TD

Full season = 336/1,632 rush, 61/544 rec, 16 TD's

While you can't just assume he can keep up this pace for a full season, it gives us a pretty good idea of what he can do. The stretch in 2006 from week 14-17 is probably the best indication where he averaged 17.8/110, 3.5/30, 1.5 TD's

No matter how you slice it, his production is sick even when he gets a "full" load.

thanks for the research.my only issue is that even though this passes the touches/game test, is this really how he'll be used being the unquestioned starter? there are a lot of games in this sample set that don't seem to fit the starter criteria. i bolded the ones that seem to fit better into that starter definition. he still performed well, i'm just not sure it's a big enough sample size.

all that said, i want to be clear that i think mjd is for real. i just don't know that he's as elite as everyone's saying. "elite" is thrown around far too loosely these days...

in my opinion there are only a few elite RBs, and MJD isn't one of them.

 

[GDogg]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study. He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

He looked like it his second season, too, if you watched the Jaguars games.Yes, he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study.

He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

You're a good poster, but sometimes your stubborness works against you. You've always been an MJD skeptic, so of course you're inclined to downplay his success. On the flipside, you've always been an Addai fan, so you exaggerate his accomplishments.

MJD has averaged more yards per carry, more yards per catch, and has scored more TD's than Addai in their two years. This despite the fact that Addai is in a superior situation. Everyone is guilty of at least a little bias from time to time, but Switz takes it to a whole new level. He rarely gives an objective opinion, and it makes it hard for me to take anything he says seriously.

Problem is when people try to look at players out of context. It's funny to hear how much credit is given to Addai's situation, while MJDs is totally ignored. And people think I look at things with an angle?MJD plays behind one of the best run blocking OLs in the league. Addai plays behind a pass blocking line, there's a huge difference.

Also, Addai has had more carries each season than MJD. It is much easier to have a high YPC that way. FYI through the first 7 games last season, Addai had a higher YPC.

There is a lot more to being an RB than YPC anyway.

You dont think 333 carries is a large enough sample size? Also, i didnt ignore the Jags situation, but if MJD was on the Colts, his situation would be much better.

 

[Jayrod]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study. He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

He looked like it his second season, too, if you watched the Jaguars games.Yes, he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Here's how I'd rank the RB's in the NFL by talent:1 - LT, pretty much can do anything very, very well2 - SJax, imagine if he only had a good O-line and a full season of health3 - ADP, if he improves his blocking/receiving, he could rival LT, best runner I've ever seen4 - Westbrook, great receiver, very good runner5 - LJ - similar to SJax (you could argue he's higher, but I don't see him any lower than this)6 - MJD - great blocker, great receiver, good inside runner....only knock is size & breakaway speed (sort of)7 - Portis - great runner, good at the rest8 - Gore - great runner, good receiver...I haven't seen enough of him to rank him higher9 - MB3 - really good at all of it, benefits from being on a great team10 - McFadden - Haven't seen much, but I consider him a poor man's ADP..and that's still really goodWhere you'd draw the line at "elite" I don't know, but MJD is at least in the discussion at #6 on my list.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study. He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

He looked like it his second season, too, if you watched the Jaguars games.Yes, he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Here's how I'd rank the RB's in the NFL by talent:1 - LT, pretty much can do anything very, very well2 - SJax, imagine if he only had a good O-line and a full season of health3 - ADP, if he improves his blocking/receiving, he could rival LT, best runner I've ever seen4 - Westbrook, great receiver, very good runner5 - LJ - similar to SJax (you could argue he's higher, but I don't see him any lower than this)6 - MJD - great blocker, great receiver, good inside runner....only knock is size & breakaway speed (sort of)7 - Portis - great runner, good at the rest8 - Gore - great runner, good receiver...I haven't seen enough of him to rank him higher9 - MB3 - really good at all of it, benefits from being on a great team10 - McFadden - Haven't seen much, but I consider him a poor man's ADP..and that's still really goodWhere you'd draw the line at "elite" I don't know, but MJD is at least in the discussion at #6 on my list.

Good list, i would have MJD behind AD and LT, move LJ down a few spots and replace Portis with Lynch, but other than that i agree 100% with the rest of the list.

 

[switz]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study.

He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

You're a good poster, but sometimes your stubborness works against you. You've always been an MJD skeptic, so of course you're inclined to downplay his success. On the flipside, you've always been an Addai fan, so you exaggerate his accomplishments.

MJD has averaged more yards per carry, more yards per catch, and has scored more TD's than Addai in their two years. This despite the fact that Addai is in a superior situation. Everyone is guilty of at least a little bias from time to time, but Switz takes it to a whole new level. He rarely gives an objective opinion, and it makes it hard for me to take anything he says seriously.

Problem is when people try to look at players out of context. It's funny to hear how much credit is given to Addai's situation, while MJDs is totally ignored. And people think I look at things with an angle?MJD plays behind one of the best run blocking OLs in the league. Addai plays behind a pass blocking line, there's a huge difference.

Also, Addai has had more carries each season than MJD. It is much easier to have a high YPC that way. FYI through the first 7 games last season, Addai had a higher YPC.

There is a lot more to being an RB than YPC anyway.

You dont think 333 carries is a large enough sample size? Also, i didnt ignore the Jags situation, but if MJD was on the Colts, his situation would be much better.

333 carries over 16 games != 333 carries over 32 games.I disagree that the Colts is a better situation than Jax. Jax OL opens huge running lanes, how else do you think Fred and MJD got the YPC they did?

I didn't say MJD stinks. He's just not elite.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Drew has proven that he's an elite talent at the highest level of football.

Looked like it his first season... not so much his second. The jury is still out, let's hold off nominating the guy until he can carry it more than 170 or so times. His YPC dropped 1.1 over one season. His TDs dropped by 6.All in one season where teams had some solid film to study.

He's good, but "an elite talent at the highest level of football"?

You're a good poster, but sometimes your stubborness works against you. You've always been an MJD skeptic, so of course you're inclined to downplay his success. On the flipside, you've always been an Addai fan, so you exaggerate his accomplishments.

MJD has averaged more yards per carry, more yards per catch, and has scored more TD's than Addai in their two years. This despite the fact that Addai is in a superior situation. Everyone is guilty of at least a little bias from time to time, but Switz takes it to a whole new level. He rarely gives an objective opinion, and it makes it hard for me to take anything he says seriously.

Problem is when people try to look at players out of context. It's funny to hear how much credit is given to Addai's situation, while MJDs is totally ignored. And people think I look at things with an angle?MJD plays behind one of the best run blocking OLs in the league. Addai plays behind a pass blocking line, there's a huge difference.

Also, Addai has had more carries each season than MJD. It is much easier to have a high YPC that way. FYI through the first 7 games last season, Addai had a higher YPC.

There is a lot more to being an RB than YPC anyway.

You dont think 333 carries is a large enough sample size? Also, i didnt ignore the Jags situation, but if MJD was on the Colts, his situation would be much better.

333 carries over 16 games != 333 carries over 32 games.I disagree that the Colts is a better situation than Jax. Jax OL opens huge running lanes, how else do you think Fred and MJD got the YPC they did?

I didn't say MJD stinks. He's just not elite.

Addai sees 8 men in the box ALOT less than does MJD. The reason the Colts Oline looks better pass blocking the run blocking is because they have an elite passer, and not an elite RB. Addai is a good player, but he is clearly not the talent MJD is.