[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low? (1 Viewer)

[nittanylion]

On the flipside, the DAW Owner in your League would probably GIVE YOU something to take him off their hands, and all things considered, there's value in that, no matter how small.

IMO, Stewart getting hurt and not living up to his potential is an annual FF rite of passage. When you look at the preponderance of evidence, last night is more the deviation than the standard, and for the prices I've seen Stewart acquired for over the last few seasons, I can start calculating positive ROI, if only by a small margin, but it doesn't change the fact that if someone bowled me over with an offer, based on last nights performance, I'd take it and run.

 

[cstu]

bunch of battered women in here, keep coming back! this time it will be different, I SWEAR

But he didn't mean to get injured!

 

[EBF]

Yes! He was finally a buy low, for all of a few weeks! Kudos!!

 

[EBF]

He looked really good.

Indeed. It was only a few carries, but it looks like everything is still there. The unreal combination of speed, quickness, and power.

He ran through Derrick Johnson like he was a backup JV player.

Let's just hope the monster stays in one piece this season. It could be a fun ride if he does.

 

[Sabertooth]

Here is his transaction history in our Dynasty. I was the Captains then changed my name to Deputy Spades and now I am the Gronquistadors .....lol When I traded him in 2012 I got back Willis McGahee....lol. Long game baby!

2014 Gronquistadors Acquired via waivers Mon Aug 18 7:25:13 a.m. ET 2014
2013 MUSCLE HAMSTERS Dropped via waivers Sun Nov 10 9:53:47 a.m. ET 2013
2013 MUSCLE HAMSTERS Acquired via waivers Thu Oct 31 9:38:26 a.m. ET 2013
2013 Silverbacks Dropped via waivers Wed Oct 23 9:39:13 p.m. ET 2013
2013 Silverbacks Activatd from IR Wed Oct 23 4:46:58 p.m. ET 2013
2013 Silverbacks Deactivated to IR Tue Aug 20 6:17:21 p.m. ET 2013
2013 Silverbacks Acquired via waivers Wed Jul 31 8:09:50 a.m. ET 2013
2013 Gronquistadors Dropped via waivers Fri Jul 26 7:57:19 a.m. ET 2013
2012 Deputy Spades Acquired in trade with A Matt Millen production Mon Oct 8 8:38:06 a.m. ET 2012
2012 A Matt Millen production Acquired in trade with Deputy Spades Thu Oct 4 8:32:43 a.m. ET 2012
2010 The Captains Acquired in trade with Caged Ignorance Thu Oct 28 3:02:14 p.m. ET 2010

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Let's just hope the monster stays in one piece this season. It could be a fun ride if he does.

Ehhhh... and an injury or two to thin out the herd in the Panthers' backfield. I've long been a believer in Stewart's talent, but between Cam at the stripe, Williams between the 20s, and Tolbert in short yardage / 3rd down as a blocker / receiver, I have a hard time seeing anything significant for FF -- even if Stewart is 100%.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Let's just hope the monster stays in one piece this season. It could be a fun ride if he does.

Ehhhh... and an injury or two to thin out the herd in the Panthers' backfield. I've long been a believer in Stewart's talent, but between Cam at the stripe, Williams between the 20s, and Tolbert in short yardage / 3rd down as a blocker / receiver, I have a hard time seeing anything significant for FF -- even if Stewart is 100%.

Could play a sneaky-big role in the passing game. His 47 receptions in 2011 ranked second on the team (behind Steve Smith, ahead of Greg Olsen), and Newton doesn't exactly have a lot of other options in Carolina.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I've owned and dropped, owned and traded Stewart at least a couple times, and every time I swept him off my roster felt like Andy Dufrense crawling to freedom through five hundred yards of #### smelling foulness I can't even imagine, or maybe I just don't want to.

 

[EBF]

Let's just hope the monster stays in one piece this season. It could be a fun ride if he does.

Ehhhh... and an injury or two to thin out the herd in the Panthers' backfield. I've long been a believer in Stewart's talent, but between Cam at the stripe, Williams between the 20s, and Tolbert in short yardage / 3rd down as a blocker / receiver, I have a hard time seeing anything significant for FF -- even if Stewart is 100%.

That's all built on the assumption that their usage will remain static, which isn't really how the league works. Bear in mind that Stewart hasn't been healthy for basically two years now, so we have little idea about how the team would want to use him if he were healthy and effective. He's had his share of injury problems, but a big part of what has held back his value throughout his career is the presence of DeAngelo Williams. Part of the reason why I've been optimistic about Stewart's future is because Williams is 4 years older than him. At some point the clock will strike on his prime. If he's suddenly a 3.8 YPC guy and Stewart is a 4.8 YPC guy then there's a good chance that the team will distribute the carries accordingly. Stewart on 200-250 carries could do a lot of damage at his current ADP. Is it a guarantee? No. Hence why I said it could be a fun ride and not this guy is guaranteed for top 15 numbers if he stays healthy. You never know with Stewart though because he's just so talented. If you're going to take a late punt on a player with warts and murky opportunity, I think it makes sense to get the guy with all-world ability. What makes Stewart enticing from both a dynasty and redraft perspective is that nobody in his ADP ballpark has anywhere near his raw talent. Usually you'd have to commit a top 20 pick to get a guy like this.

 

[Todem]

No denying how talented he is....but at any moment I am just waiting to hear about him being on the shelf for 6 weeks because of an infection that formed from the removal of an ingrown toenail before training camp.

This guy is never healthy.

 

[Banger]

No denying how talented he is....but at any moment I am just waiting to hear about him being on the shelf for 6 weeks because of an infection that formed from the removal of an ingrown toenail before training camp.

This guy is never healthy.

but if you can get him in the last round of your draft you drop him, no biggie. Prior to this year, he had a cost but this year he's waiver wire fodder.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

No denying how talented he is....but at any moment I am just waiting to hear about him being on the shelf for 6 weeks because of an infection that formed from the removal of an ingrown toenail before training camp.

This guy is never healthy.

He played 62 out of 64 games in his first four seasons, and averaged 4.8 yards/carry plus 8.7 yards/catch.

 

[pghrob]

Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson were perennial major disappointments before they settled into being decent fantasy commodities. Stewart in looking like he might be similar to them in that regard. Definitely worth a late round pick in redrafts or a pick-up from a burned out dynasty owner who is looking for a WR3/4. Yes buy low but keep expectations low.

 

[Sweetness_34]

i am buying Jon Stewart in every redraft....FF is all about risk/reward. The potential reward is huge and the risk is minimal....this dude could easily be the SOD.

 

[pghrob]

i am buying Jon Stewart in every redraft....FF is all about risk/reward. The potential reward is huge and the risk is minimal....this dude could easily be the SOD.

Exactly.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

the only thing that could possibly annoy the shark pool more in regards to ebf than the Gerhart situation, would be Stewart putting up a productive season or two. it would be quite the ride

 

[jurb26]

Let's just hope the monster stays in one piece this season. It could be a fun ride if he does.

Ehhhh... and an injury or two to thin out the herd in the Panthers' backfield. I've long been a believer in Stewart's talent, but between Cam at the stripe, Williams between the 20s, and Tolbert in short yardage / 3rd down as a blocker / receiver, I have a hard time seeing anything significant for FF -- even if Stewart is 100%.

I'm buying Stewart right now, in redraft anyway, thanks to his ridiculously low price. Still, this is pretty much how I feel about it. The Car backfield is a fantasy nightmare. Stewart has talent but he doesn't have enough talent to warrant significant playing time and opportunities in the crowded Car backfield. Add to it the fact that Cam is perhaps the biggest RB vulture in the NFL and it's a situation that is normally an avoid at all cost. It would take a lot of things to go right, or wrong, for Stewart to really flourish this year. With an ADP of round 13, I got him 15th, it's virtually a risk free lottery ticket. Also, it's worth pointing out that DWill has an ADP of round 10. Had I been more in toon with these numbers prior to my draft this weekend I probably would have just taken both of them.

 

[Faust]

Healthy Jonathan Stewart spells dynamic Panthers:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000379669/article/healthy-jonathan-stewart-spells-dynamic-panthers

 

[Banger]

anyone buying? Have to admit that I bit as my RB6 in my last rounds. The Cam rib injury news can only help him near the goal line in the early part of the year. From all accounts Deangelo looking very pedestrian. I'm really liking a late round gamble on him for no risk.

 

[rascal]

Monitoring at this time, but I'm in a ten team league.

 

[humpback]

anyone buying? Have to admit that I bit as my RB6 in my last rounds. The Cam rib injury news can only help him near the goal line in the early part of the year. From all accounts Deangelo looking very pedestrian. I'm really liking a late round gamble on him for no risk.

As a RB6 in the last rounds? Absolutely. At the likely asking cost of most long time owners in dynasty leagues? Nope.

 

[fatness]

over/under on # of games Stewart plays this year: 6

 

[az_prof]

over/under on # of games Stewart plays this year: 6

That seems pretty pessimistic--to pick the number that represents his career low.

Here are how many games he has played in previous years in order:

2008--16 games

2009--16 games

2010--14 games

2011--16 games

2012--9 games

2013--6 games

He has averaged 11.6 games/year over career so that is probably a reasonable guess.

If you are pessimistic, you might average his last three years: 10.3

So, I would guess 10 or 11 games based on past performance and the fact that he is healthy now.

 

[Warpig]

I've been picking him up fairly cheap in my leagues. Usually as a throw in type. But I'm buying.

 

[John 14:6]

anyone buying? Have to admit that I bit as my RB6 in my last rounds. The Cam rib injury news can only help him near the goal line in the early part of the year. From all accounts Deangelo looking very pedestrian. I'm really liking a late round gamble on him for no risk.

Got him add my RB6 as well :thumbsup:

 

[MoveToSkypager]

over/under on # of games Stewart plays this year: 6

That seems pretty pessimistic--to pick the number that represents his career low.

Here are how many games he has played in previous years in order:

2008--16 games

2009--16 games

2010--14 games

2011--16 games

2012--9 games

2013--6 games

He has averaged 11.6 games/year over career so that is probably a reasonable guess.

If you are pessimistic, you might average his last three years: 10.3

So, I would guess 10 or 11 games based on past performance and the fact that he is healthy now.

Why average them? That data looks like a trend to me.

 

[LOCO]

i am buying. he is a great lotto ticket. i think he is flex play right away with potential for more.

 

[az_prof]

over/under on # of games Stewart plays this year: 6

That seems pretty pessimistic--to pick the number that represents his career low.

Here are how many games he has played in previous years in order:

2008--16 games

2009--16 games

2010--14 games

2011--16 games

2012--9 games

2013--6 games

He has averaged 11.6 games/year over career so that is probably a reasonable guess.

If you are pessimistic, you might average his last three years: 10.3

So, I would guess 10 or 11 games based on past performance and the fact that he is healthy now.

Why average them? That data looks like a trend to me.

Because injuries are to some extent random. If you wanted to acknowledge a trend you would average the last three years. Most likely, 2013 is the statistical outlier.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Why buy low now when you can buy lower later?

 

[MoveToSkypager]

over/under on # of games Stewart plays this year: 6

That seems pretty pessimistic--to pick the number that represents his career low.

Here are how many games he has played in previous years in order:

2008--16 games

2009--16 games

2010--14 games

2011--16 games

2012--9 games

2013--6 games

He has averaged 11.6 games/year over career so that is probably a reasonable guess.

If you are pessimistic, you might average his last three years: 10.3

So, I would guess 10 or 11 games based on past performance and the fact that he is healthy now.

Why average them? That data looks like a trend to me.

Because injuries are to some extent random. If you wanted to acknowledge a trend you would average the last three years. Most likely, 2013 is the statistical outlier.

No, I wouldn't. And wrong about 2013. Show your work.

 

[Grahamburn]

This thread is funny.

 

[Banger]

Why buy low now when you can buy lower later?

how much lower can you get than free? If you buy later you risk him playing well in a game and now you're in a bidding war for him and you have to waste FAAB $'s on him.

To me, he either comes out of the gate looking good with some value or I cut him in favor of someone else. I'll likely give him a couple weeks to show something is changed with respect to his health and workload or he's cut for the next shiny penny. If he's in a complete 3 headed monster with 10 touches for 56 yards and a Tolbert TD vulture...I'm gone.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Link to getting him for free?

 

[Banger]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

 

[John 14:6]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I got him with my second to last pick, and I had traded away two earlier picks so when I took him most of the other teams were already done. I used my very last pick on Brian quick, who I'm consisting dropping now for QB depth when waivers start up, anyway...

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I don't know if I read this right, so to be sure, I asked you for a link (example) of getting him for free and you responded with an example of spending a draft pick on him. Do I have that right?

 

[BoomGoesTheDynamite]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I don't know if I read this right, so to be sure, I asked you for a link (example) of getting him for free and you responded with an example of spending a draft pick on him. Do I have that right?

He's on the waiver wire in my 12 team 21 roster spot dynasty league.

 

[cstu]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I don't know if I read this right, so to be sure, I asked you for a link (example) of getting him for free and you responded with an example of spending a draft pick on him. Do I have that right?

He's on the waiver wire in my 12 team 21 roster spot dynasty league.

I took him in the 19th round of a startup a month ago and would draft him higher than that today.

 

[Banger]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I don't know if I read this right, so to be sure, I asked you for a link (example) of getting him for free and you responded with an example of spending a draft pick on him. Do I have that right?

haha...very clever...link to being free...good one. it doesn't get cheaper than the last pick in your draft, if you don't like him or the risk associated don't take him. debate it but stupid one liners are a waste of time.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I don't know if I read this right, so to be sure, I asked you for a link (example) of getting him for free and you responded with an example of spending a draft pick on him. Do I have that right?

haha...very clever...link to being free...good one. it doesn't get cheaper than the last pick in your draft, if you don't like him or the risk associated don't take him. debate it but stupid one liners are a waste of time.

2 lines. You said the same thing twice. That it doesn't get cheaper..." but it does. It does get cheaper. I just want to know if you are aware of this.

 

[LawFitz]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I don't know if I read this right, so to be sure, I asked you for a link (example) of getting him for free and you responded with an example of spending a draft pick on him. Do I have that right?

haha...very clever...link to being free...good one. it doesn't get cheaper than the last pick in your draft, if you don't like him or the risk associated don't take him. debate it but stupid one liners are a waste of time.

2 lines. You said the same thing twice. That it doesn't get cheaper..." but it does. It does get cheaper. I just want to know if you are aware of this.

It gets cheaper than the last pick of the draft?

You're reaching. Poorly. Just give up before you make yourself look any worse.

 

[habsfan]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I don't know if I read this right, so to be sure, I asked you for a link (example) of getting him for free and you responded with an example of spending a draft pick on him. Do I have that right?

haha...very clever...link to being free...good one. it doesn't get cheaper than the last pick in your draft, if you don't like him or the risk associated don't take him. debate it but stupid one liners are a waste of time.

2 lines. You said the same thing twice. That it doesn't get cheaper..." but it does. It does get cheaper. I just want to know if you are aware of this.

I actually wasn't aware of this...

 

[BigJim®]

I agree that Stewart is an enigma who may be totally worthless. That said, anyone waiting for him to become cheaper to acquire than he is today is probably waiting for proof that he is, in fact, utterly valueless. I'm not following why one would want Stewart only after he reaches a lower low. The goal is getting a player who could have value, right?

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I don't know if I read this right, so to be sure, I asked you for a link (example) of getting him for free and you responded with an example of spending a draft pick on him. Do I have that right?

haha...very clever...link to being free...good one. it doesn't get cheaper than the last pick in your draft, if you don't like him or the risk associated don't take him. debate it but stupid one liners are a waste of time.

2 lines. You said the same thing twice. That it doesn't get cheaper..." but it does. It does get cheaper. I just want to know if you are aware of this.

It gets cheaper than the last pick of the draft?

You're reaching. Poorly. Just give up before you make yourself look any worse.

You can stay out of this. If you feel burned because I mocked your hilarious headlines point in the Gordon thread, then go rub some dirt on it.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Link to getting him for free?

doesn't get cheaper than your last pick before K/Def...look back at your drafts from last year and see who you drafted in the last few rounds and how well they worked out.

I don't know if I read this right, so to be sure, I asked you for a link (example) of getting him for free and you responded with an example of spending a draft pick on him. Do I have that right?

haha...very clever...link to being free...good one. it doesn't get cheaper than the last pick in your draft, if you don't like him or the risk associated don't take him. debate it but stupid one liners are a waste of time.

2 lines. You said the same thing twice. That it doesn't get cheaper..." but it does. It does get cheaper. I just want to know if you are aware of this.

I actually wasn't aware of this...

Ohh yeah. It's true.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I agree that Stewart is an enigma who may be totally worthless. That said, anyone waiting for him to become cheaper to acquire than he is today is probably waiting for proof that he is, in fact, utterly valueless. I'm not following why one would want Stewart only after he reaches a lower low. The goal is getting a player who could have value, right?

No. The goal is to say everything in a way that suggests you are never wrong. Then cherry-pick the times you're right and gloat. Duh.

 

[pghrob]

I am looking like I am going to have to let Stewart go as part of the cut down in my 12 team dynasty from 30 to 25. He is my last and final cut. I am keeping Charles Sims and Davonte Freeman over him. Sort of bittersweet after holding on for the last 3 years.

 

[Apple Juice]

I am looking like I am going to have to let Stewart go as part of the cut down in my 12 team dynasty from 30 to 25. He is my last and final cut. I am keeping Charles Sims and Davonte Freeman over him. Sort of bittersweet after holding on for the last 3 years.

You'll be punching your nuts when you see him in top ten RB rankings for next season.

 

[cstu]

I am looking like I am going to have to let Stewart go as part of the cut down in my 12 team dynasty from 30 to 25. He is my last and final cut. I am keeping Charles Sims and Davonte Freeman over him. Sort of bittersweet after holding on for the last 3 years.

I'd try to move Sims.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I am looking like I am going to have to let Stewart go as part of the cut down in my 12 team dynasty from 30 to 25. He is my last and final cut. I am keeping Charles Sims and Davonte Freeman over him. Sort of bittersweet after holding on for the last 3 years.

You'll be punching your nuts when you see him in top ten RB rankings for next season.

Even if JStew puts up RB1 #s this year no one would touch him that early next year.