[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low? (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

It seems like everyone has finally gotten tired of Stewart's act. His trade value and draft position are at an all-time low. He's available for cheaper than ever before. Is now the time to buy or is he destined to be a tease who never lives up to his potential?

Positives

- Has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL. Tied for Trent Richardson behind Michael Turner for the second highest BMI of any notable NFL tailback. Despite his size, runs 4.46 with a 36.5" vertical leap and 10'8" broad jump.

- Up until last year, had been consistently effective when given opportunities. His 4.7 career YPC ranks ahead of Ray Rice, MJD, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, and Arian Foster.

- Should still have some tread on the tire at 26 years old next season with only 818 career carries.

Negatives

- Stuck in a time share with DeAngelo Williams.

- Even if he starts, will lose some goal line carries to Cam Newton.

- Coming off the worst season of his career.

- Has averaged 14.2 games played per season, but has struggled with lower body injuries. Currently recovering from offseason ankle surgery.

My feeling is that Stewart ranks somewhere in the top 10 or maybe even the top 5 among all NFL RBs in overall talent. Lack of opportunity has been the primary culprit in his modest production to date. With DeAngelo Williams slated to turn 30 this year, it seems like only a matter of time until his skills erode. If Stewart can stay healthy, my guess is that he will have a 3-4 year window as a starter.

The obvious problem with acquiring him right now is that he has no immediate path to a starter workload unless Williams is traded or loses a step. That means if you buy Stewart, you could be sitting on him for another year or two before you can finally start him with confidence. I still think he's a good buy since he's a proven commodity who's simply way better than virtually any RB you can trade him for straight up or draft later. I think the irony of his career is that after years of failing to live up to high expectations, he'll only become really productive after the fact that everyone has already lost patience and given up on him.

 

[opensourcebeer]

One additional negative on Stewart is, even if Williams is out of the picture, he'll likely see significant competition (Newton, Tolbert) for goal line carries.

 

[EBF]

One additional negative on Stewart is, even if Williams is out of the picture, he'll likely see significant competition (Newton, Tolbert) for goal line carries.

Yea, you're right. I realized that and updated the first post.

 

[opensourcebeer]

EBF, at what price do you consider Stewart a buy at?

 

[cstu]

He went before the 1.06 in my startup, so no, I don't think he's a buy low.

 

[EBF]

EBF, at what price do you consider Stewart a buy at?

Good question. There are some guys who are clearly ahead of them because they're a similar age and they have immediate value:

Doug Martin

Trent Richardson

LeSean McCoy

CJ Spiller

Arian Foster

Jamaal Charles

Marshawn Lynch

Ray Rice

I'd probably put Morris and Ridley in there too even though I think Stewart is more talented. Those guys aren't ideal RB1 options in my opinion, but should have a decent chance of giving you several more RB2 seasons. If nothing else they're at least favorites to outscore Stewart next season and carry more trade value.

That's ten guys that I think you have to take ahead of him.

Then there are some guys who are in a bit of a gray area for one reason or another. Mathews, Mendenhall, and Murray are still pretty young and have shown flashes of talent, but can't necessarily be relied on. Players like Wilson, Miller, and Lacy are knocking on the door and may have more short term value in addition to their youth. Others like Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Reggie Bush, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Maurice Jones-Drew might still have several good years left, but could start slipping at any moment.

That's another 12 names there, but I'd probably only take about 60-75% of those guys over Stewart. A guy like Jackson or Gore has much more immediate value, but nothing on the back end.

Adding it all up, I think Stewart should be ranked somewhere around RB18-20. He has upside in that range and it's low enough that you won't kill your team by paying that kind of value if he doesn't pan out. If you can get him for RB25-RB30 prices, I think it's a good price. He would be a top 10 guy right now if he were starting somewhere.

 

[EBF]

He went before the 1.06 in my startup, so no, I don't think he's a buy low.

Seems about right. He's more talented than any player in the rookie class. I might take a guy like Lacy or Bernard ahead of him if they went to a team where they could start early, but I don't think their outlook and expected value is significantly higher in absence of team context. Stewart has already cleared the hurdle of proving that he can be effective and look great in the NFL, whereas a lot of the rookies will end becoming Ginn/Felix/Pead/etc.

 

[squistion]

It seems like everyone has finally gotten tired of Stewart's act. His trade value and draft position are at an all-time low. He's available for cheaper than ever before. Is now the time to buy or is he destined to be a tease who never lives up to his potential?

You have been telling everyone in this forum to buy him for the last three years (maybe longer). Hard to get excited about you hyping him again as a possible bargain acquisition, since you have never viewed him as anything but that. In your book he has always been undervalued and a player to buy Now. Is there even one time that you have not recommended him as an acquisition target? If so, I would really like to see your quote on that and a link to the thread.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Worst situation of any hyper talented back pretty much ever.

And the problem now is that if it takes another year or two for him to shake it off he's 27 or 28 years old.

Love the guy, agree he's uber-talented, but it's getting harder to buy given the prices people are asking.

 

[EBF]

Worst situation of any hyper talented back pretty much ever.

And the problem now is that if it takes another year or two for him to shake it off he's 27 or 28 years old.

Love the guy, agree he's uber-talented, but it's getting harder to buy given the prices people are asking.

He's not going to have any exit value, but if you buy him now you could maybe get 3-4 years of starter performance on the back end of his career. At some point the wheels have to come off the D-Will train. With Stewart being about 4 years younger than Williams, that should create an opening for him to have a late career renaissance ala Thomas Jones. I think his talent level is on par with Ricky Williams and Ricky was able to remain effective into his 30s. My main concern is whether or not the foot/ankle stuff will be a long term impediment. If not, I think he's going to put together a couple good years at some point.

 

[cstu]

He went before the 1.06 in my startup, so no, I don't think he's a buy low.

Seems about right. He's more talented than any player in the rookie class. I might take a guy like Lacy or Bernard ahead of him if they went to a team where they could start early, but I don't think their outlook and expected value is significantly higher in absence of team context. Stewart has already cleared the hurdle of proving that he can be effective and look great in the NFL, whereas a lot of the rookies will end becoming Ginn/Felix/Pead/etc.

He's also already 26. That the Panthers aren't going out of their way to move Williams is concerning. They've had this guy 5 years already and they still don't seem ready to let him carry the load. It also doesn't help that Cam is there vulturing TD's. You got me thinking about it though and I offered the 1.07 for him, we'll see if he's a buy low.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

pass

 

[Bruce Hammond]

pass

Short and sweet. I like that.

 

[EBF]

He's also already 26. That the Panthers aren't going out of their way to move Williams is concerning. They've had this guy 5 years already and they still don't seem ready to let him carry the load. It also doesn't help that Cam is there vulturing TD's. You got me thinking about it though and I offered the 1.07 for him, we'll see if he's a buy low.

My take is that either of Carolina's backs would start on ~80% of the teams in the league and that the ineptitude of their front office is the main reason why the team decided to pay/keep both of them. It's tough to justify paying one RB in today's NFL, much less two. Stupid decision by the Panthers, who incidentally haven't won anything in a while.

A bit tragic for us FF owners, as I think we've seen two of the best backs of their generation largely wasted. There's no silver lining for D-Will at this point unless he's traded, but Stewart owners can still take some solace in the age gap. Williams is about 4 years older. Something's gotta give there.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

pass

Short and sweet. I like that.

there is nothing more to say. The fact that people are still giving mid firsts for him (or trying) is something I wont do

 

[tdmills]

He's also already 26. That the Panthers aren't going out of their way to move Williams is concerning. They've had this guy 5 years already and they still don't seem ready to let him carry the load. It also doesn't help that Cam is there vulturing TD's. You got me thinking about it though and I offered the 1.07 for him, we'll see if he's a buy low.

My take is that either of Carolina's backs would start on ~80% of the teams in the league and that the ineptitude of their front office is the main reason why the team decided to pay/keep both of them. It's tough to justify paying one RB in today's NFL, much less two. Stupid decision by the Panthers, who incidentally haven't won anything in a while.

A bit tragic for us FF owners, as I think we've seen two of the best backs of their generation largely wasted. There's no silver lining for D-Will at this point unless he's traded, but Stewart owners can still take some solace in the age gap. Williams is about 4 years older. Something's gotta give there.

The Carolina Panthers don't care about FF or FF owners. Why is it inept for a team to have two solid RBs? They're paying less than 6 million dollars for both RBs this year. A few years back they had a great combination run game that took them into the playoffs. Why dismantle or get rid of successful players?

 

[EBF]

Part of the reason why he's a tricky buy is because there's no obvious short term path to relevance. If you get Steven Jackson for your team, you can plug him into your lineup right away. I don't think he has a better EV than Stewart going forward, but the fact that you know you're getting the payoff right away can give you a bit of security in the acquisition. With a guy like Stewart, you're buying more under the notion that you'll be able to plug him into your lineup at some indeterminate point in the future. At some point he's going to be useful, but you don't know if it's going to be this season or 2015. The fact that you can't rely on him for any given window makes him tougher to fit into a team.

I'd say the same for guys like Bryce Brown and Michael Floyd. Are they less talented than Lamar Miller and Josh Gordon? Maybe not. They might even be better, but the fact that nobody knows exactly when they're going to become useful suppresses their draft/trade value. I think this type of player can represent great value for a patient owner, but you have to know what you're getting into. It can take years for a player to get his due. Stewart is the poster boy for the worst case scenario because he's been relatively useless for so long despite his apparent ability. That doesn't mean the payoff isn't coming though.

 

[EBF]

He's also already 26. That the Panthers aren't going out of their way to move Williams is concerning. They've had this guy 5 years already and they still don't seem ready to let him carry the load. It also doesn't help that Cam is there vulturing TD's. You got me thinking about it though and I offered the 1.07 for him, we'll see if he's a buy low.

My take is that either of Carolina's backs would start on ~80% of the teams in the league and that the ineptitude of their front office is the main reason why the team decided to pay/keep both of them. It's tough to justify paying one RB in today's NFL, much less two. Stupid decision by the Panthers, who incidentally haven't won anything in a while.

A bit tragic for us FF owners, as I think we've seen two of the best backs of their generation largely wasted. There's no silver lining for D-Will at this point unless he's traded, but Stewart owners can still take some solace in the age gap. Williams is about 4 years older. Something's gotta give there.

The Carolina Panthers don't care about FF or FF owners. Why is it inept for a team to have two solid RBs? They're paying less than 6 million dollars for both RBs this year. A few years back they had a great combination run game that took them into the playoffs. Why dismantle or get rid of successful players?

Having two A level backs doesn't do you a ton of good when one of them is always on the bench. Spending that money on a B level starter at a different position would probably provide more overall value to the team. The same thing applies in FF. If you have Gronk and Graham on your team, but can only start one of them, it would make sense for you to sell one of them for below his actual value if it meant that you could upgrade another starting position.

 

[tdmills]

He's also already 26. That the Panthers aren't going out of their way to move Williams is concerning. They've had this guy 5 years already and they still don't seem ready to let him carry the load. It also doesn't help that Cam is there vulturing TD's. You got me thinking about it though and I offered the 1.07 for him, we'll see if he's a buy low.

My take is that either of Carolina's backs would start on ~80% of the teams in the league and that the ineptitude of their front office is the main reason why the team decided to pay/keep both of them. It's tough to justify paying one RB in today's NFL, much less two. Stupid decision by the Panthers, who incidentally haven't won anything in a while.

A bit tragic for us FF owners, as I think we've seen two of the best backs of their generation largely wasted. There's no silver lining for D-Will at this point unless he's traded, but Stewart owners can still take some solace in the age gap. Williams is about 4 years older. Something's gotta give there.

The Carolina Panthers don't care about FF or FF owners. Why is it inept for a team to have two solid RBs? They're paying less than 6 million dollars for both RBs this year. A few years back they had a great combination run game that took them into the playoffs. Why dismantle or get rid of successful players?

Having two A level backs doesn't do you a ton of good when one of them is always on the bench. Spending that money on a B level starter at a different position would probably provide more overall value to the team. The same thing applies in FF. If you have Gronk and Graham on your team, but can only start one of them, it would make sense for you to sell one of them for below his actual value if it meant that you could upgrade another starting position.

That would be inside the box thinking. Every NFL team needs a franchise QB, LT, weapons to through to etc. The 49ers didn't accept that idea, instead they ran the ball/got a running QB/two TE sets(along with NE) and made it all the way to the Super Bowl.

Many ways to skin a cat, I applaud outside the box thinking. Not everything fits perfectly.

 

[mbuehner]

Stewart is the next big breakout running back. And he always will be.

 

[Steed]

Its not a question of if he has a chronic foot problem, it's a question of how bad is it? Check his instagram, he's still riding around on a scooter.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

From my post in my Dynasty Rankings thread, a bit ago today:

Uh oh, I see EBF has started another thread banging the drum for Jonathan Stewart. How's Jon Baldwin working out for you these days my friend? LOL, sorry I couldn't resist, and we've all had our eff ups... I guess it's probably an appropriate time to address in this thread the comments about him. Maybe Mendenhall and McFadden soon thereafter, we'll see what time I have.

In the words of the venerable George W. Bush --

"There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again."

Yeah, that. Or something like that. I'm afraid though we've been fooled a number of times with Stewart. I can't remember a player over the last half-decade with so much hype and discussion surrounding him, then with it so much disappointment to follow (other than maybe Brett Favre, who actually did produce a couple of those years). I've spent time on the Stewy bandwagon myself I'm afraid, but I simply cannot get behind any of the hype anymore.

For the record, he has value. At the right price every starter has value. But in my mind he'll never again be considered for uber-stud status like he was his first couple years, and every year that passes he becomes less an acquisition target and more an afterthought filler type player. I now have him at dynasty RB25, the first RB on my "Vets with extra downside risk" tier. Also for the record, I'm very sick of seeing the words "super talent" used in connection with him. Talent is great to talk about for awhile, especially with younger unproven guys, but eventually you have to start looking at a guy's track record and adjust accordingly.

He used to always be on the injury report, even going back to college, dinged up with leg and foot issues, missing practices, but ultimately making it to the field and producing at game time. He missed just 2 games (in 2010) through his first 4 seasons. But last year he played only 9 games due to an ankle -- another lower body injury. Now 26 1/2 when the 2013 season begins (past what should have been his prime producing years), I have to wonder what Stewart's true football age is. Not because of mileage but because of the constant propensity for nagging leg/foot/ankle injuries and the toll they may be taking on his overall longevity.

He's never been "the man." Just looking quickly at his FBG yearly stat page, he finished with rankings of 24-11-35-25-53, with that last season due in large part to missing 7 games. The hype remains in some circles, with the hope that D Williams is cut and JStew with his big ol' contract will FINALLY be an uber-stud 300+ carry top 10 fantasy RB. I'm no longer buying the noise. At this point, prove it. Maybe D Williams stays (they've fooled us before), or maybe Tolbert becomes the D Williams of 2013, or a rookie does. I don't really think at this point HC Rivera wants a stud RB but instead a time share situation like they have every year. Throw QB Newton into the mix with his major involvement in the running game and especially the rushing TD vulturing, and I see Stewart's production as forever being capped at a not-so-special level. Add in the injury risk he seems to always be, and he's my RB25. If Stewart ends up surprising me, fine, but I'll never again let him be iin a position to disappoint me after investing heavily in him, because I won't be a guy investing heavily in him.

Because you see, there's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says...

 

[thriftyrocker]

Are you judging his talent level based on 2012 or on 2008-2011? Because he didn't look like an elite RB last year.

 

[opensourcebeer]

Maybe D Williams stays (they've fooled us before), or maybe Tolbert becomes the D Williams of 2013, or a rookie does. I don't really think at this point HC Rivera wants a stud RB but instead a time share situation like they have every year. Throw QB Newton into the mix with his major involvement in the running game and especially the rushing TD vulturing, and I see Stewart's production as forever being capped at a not-so-special level.

Pretty much my exact feelings.

Are you judging his talent level based on 2012 or on 2008-2011? Because he didn't look like an elite RB last year.

I think a large part of this was the high ankle sprain he suffered in a pre-season game. Regardless, its a valid point. If Stewart ever does get his shot to be the bell cow back, I don't think its safe to assume he'll look like he did in 2009.

 

[bigmarc27]

Had him for four years in my dynasty, and I'm not trading him now. His suckiness has blessed me with high picks I've hit on, so I wont need to play him but I'm definitely not selling for cheap. He's going to rot on my bench before I give him away!

 

[ghostguy123]

I would feel pretty good about trading a mid 1st in THIS draft for him.

 

[squistion]

I would feel pretty good about trading a mid 1st in THIS draft for him.

But most of us long term Stewart owners (I actually do own him in one league) would not feel pretty good about trading him for a mid 1st in THIS draft. The way I look at it, I have held him for this long and if that is all I can get, might as well keeping holding until he finally has his breakthrough year or exits the league.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

 

[Shutout]

The problem with JSTEW detractors is that they get too emotional with the issue. In a world full of instant gratification needs, combined with a lot of people that have owned JSTEW and been disappointed a time or two, a combination is mixed on the table that delivers an unjust negative perception of him.

But when you look at things more unbiased, you might walk away with a different perception. A lot of people that are knocking JSTEW down right now cite his age and, in general, ask how much tread he still might have on the tires. A lot more people talk about the presence of DWIL and how that is a negative. If you refuse to take the worst case scenario in both of those thoughts and combine them and, instead, separate them, you may see it differently.

If you criticize him for already being 26 and treat that as over the hill, how can you possibly think that a soon to be 31 year old DWIL is a viable threat for any period of time? Combined with the very real possibility that DWIL could be released in June, I don't see the concern. JSTEW's mileage is low and that is a real key. 26 is a very young man and when compared to RBs, it shouldn't be overlooked that when we speak of 26 year old RBs starting to slow down, we are normally talking about guys with 1600+ carries on them. JSTEW has half of that. In fact, rookies like johnathan Franklin have as many carries in college as JSTEW has had in the NFL. DWIL had that many carries in college plus what he has added in the NFL. It's not an apples to apples thing that can simply be compared side to side.

Many RBs have excellent careers later in their careers after not being utilized heavily early. I'm sure guys like Thomas jones, ced benson, and Fred Taylor were very valuable players for fantasy owners for 2-3 years later in their careers.

People get caught up with fantasy players in buying into these ideas that players are only great values if they have 5-6 years left. 2-3 years is a LONG time in a fantasy league. 2-3 years of great production from a RB of JSTEw's talent is worth the patience. Besides, you never know when the consensus groupthink might be wrong. Even if you waited another year, you could easily get a 27 year old JSTEW who could give you 5 quality seasons. He could do that and be 31 at the end of that time. That is an eternity. Think that's a crazy thought? Three years ago a rebuilding team sent me a trade offer out of the blue, asking if I wanted to do a deal for three of his players that were getting old? I was in the middle of a playoff chase and said "sure. You're right. They are old but they might get me a title this year." So I bit the bullet and traded my consensus up and coming talent for his older guys:

Joseph Addai and Phillip rivers for Tom Brady, Willis McGhee, and Reggie Wayne. I admit, I was reluctant to pull the trigger. These guys were old and my guys were young and rivers was supposed to be the next big thing but look at how lopsided that trade looks now three plus years later. Can you imagine how helpful each of those players have been to my team? Basically, I guess I'm saying you just never know how quick things will turn in the NFL but if you follow the talent, you will likely be ok.

This past season, people were tired of Dez Bryant and Michael Crabtree. Those who scooped them up couldn't be happier now.

 

[Ghost Rider]

That is all well and good, Shutout, but you have to remember that Stewart is on a team with a) a coaching staff that has shown repeatedly that they have no clue how to utilize their stud RBs and b) a running quarterback who is constantly gonna vulture short yardage and goal line carries, making it difficult for ANY running back in Carolina to put up stud RB scores.

 

[ghostguy123]

I would feel pretty good about trading a mid 1st in THIS draft for him.

But most of us long term Stewart owners (I actually do own him in one league) would not feel pretty good about trading him for a mid 1st in THIS draft. The way I look at it, I have held him for this long and if that is all I can get, might as well keeping holding until he finally has his breakthrough year or exits the league.

Right. Which is why I think guys like Britt and Stewart won't get traded very much. Chances are people that own them have owned them a while, and won't trade for what their current market value is.

If I owned Stewart (which i do in ONE league), I would not trade him for a mid 1st this year.

I agree, I would just ride him until he either produces or dies on your roster and you drop him as opposed to going after some lesser talented guy in this draft.

 

[EBF]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

The board that matters is the scoreboard.

I feel sort of schlocky saying that, but it's really the one truth you aren't paying enough attention to with regard to Stewart. Way way too much Kool Aid EBF!

 

[ghostguy123]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

Is this some sort of twisted joke?

 

[Garrett]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

Nope.

 

[ZWK]

Stewart's stock is down as an NFL running back, situation aside. The RSPWP draft (where football writers are drafting NFL teams from scratch) is in its 12th round, and 17 RBs have gone off the board, but Stewart is not one of them. In the FBG forum version, he went in the 13th round as the 18th RB drafted.

 

[Donsmith753]

I'm going down with this ship, starting to lose hope now.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I'm a fan of acquiring talent so I'm always in favor of adding J-Stew. But he will never be "cheap," everyone knows what he's capable of. My advice would be to wait until D-Will is dropped and go all-in to get him. As it's been said before, he'll still be on a team with Mike Tolbert (who forced a timeshare w Ryan Mathews) and a QB who thinks he's a RB. You still have to be worried.

Whats the odds Carolina goes with the read-option? That would be really intriguing if a RB happends to get 15+ carries with Newton at the helm.

 

[EBF]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

Is this some sort of twisted joke?

Stewart is up there with guys like Vernon Davis, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson as a height/weight/speed/explosiveness mutant.

His weight per height ratio is tied with Trent Richardson for second highest among all NFL runners behind Michael Turner. He's a BIG back. Which makes his speed and explosive leaping ability all the more impressive. 4.46 in the 40. 36.5" vertical. 10'8" broad jump. Those would be good numbers for any RB, but they're downright amazing for someone who's carrying 235 pounds on a 5'10.2" frame. Peterson did 4.40/38.5"/10'7" on a much taller, leaner frame.

Stewart's YPC averages have been right on par with Peterson until this last season, when the two broke in opposite directions. I think there is reasonable cause for questioning how clean Peterson was this season (shattering your career high in rushing yards and YPC less than a year after blowing up your knee is something that brings to mind the "miraculous" athletic feats of Barry Bonds and Lance Armstrong). But that's another discussion for another thread. I'm not here to say that Stewart > Peterson as an NFL RB, but it's not much of a stretch to say that he's the one of the most athletically gifted backs to enter the league in the past decade.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I own Stewart in one league. Only one owner has come sniffing around, and he was always including Stewart in his offers at a throw-in value. I very rarely sell low on a player, so Stewart is still on my team.

I have gone after Stewart in a couple of leagues. Both times the owners valued him very highly and probably still do.

Two of my leagues are contract leagues with rookie squads, so trading a rookie pick for Stewart is a bit of a double whammy... the rookie would be on my rookie squad, keeping a roster spot open for another prospect, whereas Stewart would be tying up an active roster spot and cap room until he becomes useful. I am a firm believer in his talent, but I am also worried about his injuries perhaps sapping some of his ability.

Certainly a hold if you have him, only a buy if you have roster flexibility and the price is reasonable. Might be kind of hard to acquire at a reasonable price for all the reasons others have stated above.

 

[Biabreakable]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

Well except for speed, power, stamina, toughness, elusiveness, work ethic, vision and just about every other positive quality someone should be looking for in a running back they might be considered comparable.

If being bigger mattered in any way whatsoever then the Nfl would have a lot more 300lb RBs. Stewart may be 10-15 lbs heavier than AD but that does not mean he has more power or tackle breaking ability than Peterson. So what is the advantage? You are hyping a myth of your own creation if you think Stewart in any way plays bigger than Peterson.

You are hanging yourself with statements like this. Why? I just do not understand your motivation. Doubling down on a bad call over and over leads to bankruptcy.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Ahh, the Jonathon Stewart fantasy phenomenon. A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Buy, sell, hold, start, don't start - who effing knows? Like many owners, I have been befuddled by him enough that every time I even think about actually DOING something with him, my mind shuts down. So I'm keeping him. It just easier than having my head explode.

Seriously, I am absolutely CERTAIN that if I trade him, he will immediately become a Peterson-like fantasy god. And if I DON'T trade him (which I won't), he will languish on my bench for the next 17 years.

 

[pghrob]

Count me as a Kool Aid drinker on Stewart for a few years now. I traded for him in my 12 team, 25 man roster PPR League and got him in exchange for Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Williams after Williams rookie season.

 

[squistion]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

Is this some sort of twisted joke?

I think there is reasonable cause for questioning how clean Peterson was this season (shattering your career high in rushing yards and YPC less than a year after blowing up your knee is something that brings to mind the "miraculous" athletic feats of Barry Bonds and Lance Armstrong). But that's another discussion for another thread.

It appears that the answer to ghostguy's question was yes.

 

[FF Ninja]

pass

Short and sweet. I like that.

Really? I'm probably guilty of the short, worthless post from time to time, but these have absolutely no value. Actually, they have negative value. They make threads longer than they need to be. It would be nice if these threads were information dense rather than 90% fluff.

Moving on... I agree that Stewart is a buy low. What people seem to miss is that he's not a boom or bust player. He could split time with DeAngelo and still contribute to your fantasy team, thus mitigating the risks of buying him at his current price. Should you overpay for him based on the assumption that he's going to blow up in 2013 or 2014? That's a totally different question. But if you can buy low, I think it is a safe investment.

FWIW, I got him as the 43rd pick (RB24) in PDSL3. I know that's not dynasty but it gives a good indicator of people's current perception of him. I'm still of the belief that DeAngelo will be cut and/or traded this year, so I'd suggest doing your trading soon if you're going after him.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

well except for..... ya know actual on the field production, sure

 

[Coeur de Lion]

After being on the bandwagon since his rookie year, I unloaded him everywhere early last season during that brief hype period when he was announced as the starters -- got roughly RB2 value. I'd still sell him at those prices.

I firmly agree with EBF that talent-wise, he's in the top handful. He carried me to multiple titles in 2009 while looking like the best RB in the NFL. But is he still that guy? Didn't look like it last year. He's young enough that he can bounce back, but last year was a red flag IMO.

And the situation is MUCH WORSE than it was a few years ago. In 2009 he was the heir apparent to one of the sweetest rushing spots in the NFL -- great line, coach committed to power football, history of 2000+ / 20+ RB production. In 2013, he's locked in on a team that is struggling to find an identity, the line looked like crap last year, and they now have the most prolific TD vulture in NFL history. DeAngelo is still there and looked damn good at the end of the year (better than Stewart did).

That said, if I do any startups this year, and he's sliding around after RB30ish, I'll probably jump back on the train...

 

[ghostguy123]

Referencing his combine numbers at this point isn't the best argument.

Maybe every NFL player should do all the combine drills every year so that this won't happen. I would bet any amount of money you want that Stewart would not perform the combine drills as well right now as he did before he was drafted..........hence...........referencing his combine drills is like saying you had a one night stand with some hot model, only you failed to say it was when she was 50, not 25.

 

[FF Ninja]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

well except for..... ya know actual on the field production, sure

Why are you trolling his least defensible position and ignoring the bulk of the topic? Of course he bit off too much with the Peterson comment, especially in the SP where AP is beyond reproach. But the topic here is whether Stewart is a buy low, not AP vs. JStew.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Are you judging his talent level based on 2012 or on 2008-2011? Because he didn't look like an elite RB last year.

As an owner sadly I agree with this. Seems his multiple lower leg injuries have sapped him of much of his explosiveness. Hopefully it was a one year down period that he can recover from.