[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low? (3 Viewers)

[EBF]

1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.

1. You can laugh at it, but it's still accurate. In order to match Stewart's weight/height ratio, Peterson would have to weigh 257 pounds at his height.

You completely ignored the point in this exchange. I bolded it for you this time.

Odd argument considering that Stewart looks like The Incredible Hulk.

I agree that distribution of weight can cause misleading BMI numbers, but it doesn't apply in this case.

 

[Christo]

1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.

1. You can laugh at it, but it's still accurate. In order to match Stewart's weight/height ratio, Peterson would have to weigh 257 pounds at his height.

You completely ignored the point in this exchange. I bolded it for you this time.

Odd argument considering that Stewart looks like The Incredible Hulk.

I agree that distribution of weight can cause misleading BMI numbers, but it doesn't apply in this case.

Comparing Stewart to Peterson is dumb. Give it up.

 

[ghostguy123]

Okay, but now you are talking value, and getting great value out of someone doesn't mean they single-handledly carried your team to a title. Two of my championship teams in 2012 had Alfred Morris, and I got him for around $5-$7 in both auctions, which was HUGE, but that doesn't mean he single-handledly carried my teams to those championships. That was my beef here, the use of the "single-handledly carried my team to a title" phrase. Also, was being the number 5 RB over the last half of the season really that impressive given those putrid games I pointed out that he had. Consistency is the key to a great player, not putting up 200 yards one game and 29 in another (especially for RBs, who tend to be way more consistent than WRs). What if Stewart had put up those 35 and 29 yard games in weeks 15 and 16? That second half RB5 wouldn't look nearly as impressive.

Value is pretty relevant when discussing Stewart. If you buy him as rb22 in a startup and he gives you three top-5 seasons, that's worth a lot more than if you buy Peterson as rb1 and he does the same. That's what I was saying about reaching a point in the draft where upside begins to far outweigh downside.As for consistency... It's not the key to a great player. Great players are often consistent, but that gets the causal arrow backward- players that score a lot of point tend to have fewer games where they don't score many points, sure, but that's because they score so many points. Players who are consistent don't become great, players who are great become consistent. Add to this the fact that consistency is not consistent (knowing how consistent a player was in year N tells you very little about how consistent he'll be in year N+1), and that consistency really isn't that valuable (someone- maybe ZWK?- ran a study that found that a super-consistent WR that scored 180 points would be expected to net as many wins for his owner as a super-inconsistent WR that scored 182 points). To finish this off, consider that Jonathan Stewart has actually historically been a pretty consistent guy. Come up with any definition of consistency you want (games above 8 points, percentage of games within one std dev of his scoring average, percentage of points scored in his four best games) and compare Stewart to the two guys immediately above and below him in the year-end rankings and you'll see that Stewart is no more inconsistent than we would expect an RB with that many points to be. In short, consistency isn't worth much of anything, IMO- give me the guy who scores more points, regardless of how consistently he does so.If Stewart had laid eggs in week 15 and 16 of 2009, I wouldn't be talking about how he carried teams to titles, and I wouldn't be saying I got a pretty good return on him already. He didn't, though, and the championship trophy he put on my mantle disagrees with anyone who says he's been a disappointment so far and has underperformed what his owners had to pay to get him.

But............wouldn't the majority of teams who relied on Stewart for good production probably not have made the playoffs, or gotten past week 14 even if they did??

So he probably cost more people titles than he actually got for people.

I mean, I can't value a guy any differently just because he happened to have a couple good weeks during the fantasy playoffs as opposed to say weeks 8 and 9.

It's like what you mentioned about Foster and Morris. Foster had the better year, is the better RB, and is the more valuable RB, and I highly doubt ANYONE (maybe peso, haha) would take Morris straight up over Foster in a dynasty league. But chances are not too many Foster owners won a title last year because of his crappy week 16 numbers. I take that as just blind luck, and absolutely useless when determining his value for the future.

It's all about championships, so for you PERSONALLY he has worked out for you because he was a key part of your championship. That doesn't mean than he hasn't been a disappointment in general.

On the flip side, as long as you have a large enough roster to be able to keep him this whole time and still have him, he still has a chance to be valuable to your team. I still like him, probably more than 90% of all owners, and think he can still have some nice years. So he may end his career and be viewed differently than he is now, but as of NOW, he has been a disappointment. Not worthless, but a disappointment.

 

[Biabreakable]

Ahh, the Jonathon Stewart fantasy phenomenon. A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Buy, sell, hold, start, don't start - who effing knows? Like many owners, I have been befuddled by him enough that every time I even think about actually DOING something with him, my mind shuts down. So I'm keeping him. It just easier than having my head explode.

Seriously, I am absolutely CERTAIN that if I trade him, he will immediately become a Peterson-like fantasy god. And if I DON'T trade him (which I won't), he will languish on my bench for the next 17 years.

Glad that is finally settled.

 

[ghostguy123]

Ahh, the Jonathon Stewart fantasy phenomenon. A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Buy, sell, hold, start, don't start - who effing knows? Like many owners, I have been befuddled by him enough that every time I even think about actually DOING something with him, my mind shuts down. So I'm keeping him. It just easier than having my head explode.

Seriously, I am absolutely CERTAIN that if I trade him, he will immediately become a Peterson-like fantasy god. And if I DON'T trade him (which I won't), he will languish on my bench for the next 17 years.

Glad that is finally settled.

Lol, I think he settled it pretty well actually. Anyone who makes a prediction about his future and gets it right is just guessing.

A lot of FF players are good with evaluating talent, situation, and the future of a player. This particular player is a little different. I have never seen a player with a more varied set of opinions among what appears to be the most respected fantasy players.

If I own him, I am not selling him cheap. If I got offered pick 5 this year, that might be around my cutoff point. If I got offered a 2014 1st that I felt has a super shot at being a top pick, I may go for that.

In leagues I don't own him, I am not going after him at all unless he is about a 2nd round value as a throw-in in a larger trade, or if I am very desperate for a RB maybe I go after him for a late late 1st.

Not taking him early whatsoever if I was to do a startup draft. He is currently one of the only players that I don't really place a value on, cause frankly who the F knows.

 

[FF Ninja]

Yes, it's true that dynasty owners probably aren't selling him low. This would be a better discussion if it was redraft focused. If his ADP is RB24, I consider that a strong buy low situation. He will almost certainly give you RB24 performance on a a ppg basis and has the potential to perform at a much higher rate.

Personally I don't think he's even worth discussing in a redraft context. And no way is he close to undervalued at RB24 for redraft purposes. He was RB37 in PPG last year, and what has changed?

Presumably, the high ankle sprain that hindered him all of last year and required surgery after the season will not be affecting him in 2013. His ranking last year was a direct result of his injury; one must decide if he is going to be healthy or if his injury(ies) have sapped his effectiveness. But his performance while actually injured isn't a useful yardstick looking forward.

I know he was banged up early and late but he didn't appear on the injury report at all weeks 5 - 12. His rank among RBs in PPG those weeks? 45th. He was hot garbage last year, and the injuries are stuff that every RB deals with every year.The guy I was disagreeing with called him a "strong buy low" as RB24 -- barring DeAngelo getting cut, I'd say RB24 is close to the upside here (2013 only). And if DeAngelo does get cut, I guarantee you won't be drafting Stewart at anywhere near RB24...

Sorry I missed that earlier question. But the answer is pretty obvious. From weeks 5-12, he only averaged 10 carries and 2 rec per game. During that span (7 games) he averaged a bizarre 3.4 ypc and only scored 1 TD. If you honestly expect that workload, that ypc, and that TD rate to continue then sure, nothing has changed and you can value him as RB45 in 2013.

Personally, I am expecting something in the 4.5 ypc range this year and more than 12 touches per game. I also think his season TD total will be greater than 2. Even if he only gets 12 touches a game, his ypc and scoring returning to normal levels would probably net you something close to his ADP value. That's why I think he's a strong buy in redrafts. I think there's an 80% chance or better that he meets or exceeds the value you'd pay. That alone makes him a value play, but if you look at the other RBs drafted at that range, his ceiling is much higher. It is hard to incorporate ceilings into rankings, but given that this is just icing on top of the cake, you almost don't need to spend too much time weighing this portion of his value.

 

[Biabreakable]

Ahh, the Jonathon Stewart fantasy phenomenon. A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Buy, sell, hold, start, don't start - who effing knows? Like many owners, I have been befuddled by him enough that every time I even think about actually DOING something with him, my mind shuts down. So I'm keeping him. It just easier than having my head explode.

Seriously, I am absolutely CERTAIN that if I trade him, he will immediately become a Peterson-like fantasy god. And if I DON'T trade him (which I won't), he will languish on my bench for the next 17 years.

Glad that is finally settled.

Lol, I think he settled it pretty well actually. Anyone who makes a prediction about his future and gets it right is just guessing.

A lot of FF players are good with evaluating talent, situation, and the future of a player. This particular player is a little different. I have never seen a player with a more varied set of opinions among what appears to be the most respected fantasy players.

If I own him, I am not selling him cheap. If I got offered pick 5 this year, that might be around my cutoff point. If I got offered a 2014 1st that I felt has a super shot at being a top pick, I may go for that.

In leagues I don't own him, I am not going after him at all unless he is about a 2nd round value as a throw-in in a larger trade, or if I am very desperate for a RB maybe I go after him for a late late 1st.

Not taking him early whatsoever if I was to do a startup draft. He is currently one of the only players that I don't really place a value on, cause frankly who the F knows.

HS said he is not moving him. So its settled.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Yes, it's true that dynasty owners probably aren't selling him low. This would be a better discussion if it was redraft focused. If his ADP is RB24, I consider that a strong buy low situation. He will almost certainly give you RB24 performance on a a ppg basis and has the potential to perform at a much higher rate.

Personally I don't think he's even worth discussing in a redraft context. And no way is he close to undervalued at RB24 for redraft purposes. He was RB37 in PPG last year, and what has changed?

Presumably, the high ankle sprain that hindered him all of last year and required surgery after the season will not be affecting him in 2013. His ranking last year was a direct result of his injury; one must decide if he is going to be healthy or if his injury(ies) have sapped his effectiveness. But his performance while actually injured isn't a useful yardstick looking forward.

I know he was banged up early and late but he didn't appear on the injury report at all weeks 5 - 12. His rank among RBs in PPG those weeks? 45th. He was hot garbage last year, and the injuries are stuff that every RB deals with every year.The guy I was disagreeing with called him a "strong buy low" as RB24 -- barring DeAngelo getting cut, I'd say RB24 is close to the upside here (2013 only). And if DeAngelo does get cut, I guarantee you won't be drafting Stewart at anywhere near RB24...

Sorry I missed that earlier question. But the answer is pretty obvious. From weeks 5-12, he only averaged 10 carries and 2 rec per game. During that span (7 games) he averaged a bizarre 3.4 ypc and only scored 1 TD. If you honestly expect that workload, that ypc, and that TD rate to continue then sure, nothing has changed and you can value him as RB45 in 2013.

Personally, I am expecting something in the 4.5 ypc range this year and more than 12 touches per game. I also think his season TD total will be greater than 2. Even if he only gets 12 touches a game, his ypc and scoring returning to normal levels would probably net you something close to his ADP value. That's why I think he's a strong buy in redrafts. I think there's an 80% chance or better that he meets or exceeds the value you'd pay. That alone makes him a value play, but if you look at the other RBs drafted at that range, his ceiling is much higher. It is hard to incorporate ceilings into rankings, but given that this is just icing on top of the cake, you almost don't need to spend too much time weighing this portion of his value.

I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as far as his performance last year, but I'm having a hard time seeing where more touches or a decent increase in TDs is going to come from. Cam, Tolbert, and DeAngelo all get more red zone touches. Tolbert can catch, so another 47 catch year (2011) doesn't look likely. DeAngelo continues to be a more effective runner -- there's no shame in that as DeAngelo Williams is the most under-rated talent at RB in the NFL the last decade or so -- but it is what it is for Stewart. I see 2011 with about 1/2 the catches (and a RB25 - RB30 finish) as the most likely outcome barring something unforseen. Not a terrible pick as a late RB2, but I wouldn't be doing cartwheels about it.

 

[maxhyde]

If Stewart was such a phenomenal prospect then DWill would have been moved out years ago. The fact they paid DWill as a top 10RB contract with Stewart on a rookie deal means the Panthers don't share the optimism. In essence that is all that matters. The Panthers have not been inclined to give him the starters role and without it he is low RB2 high RB3 no matter how good his athletic potential says he is.

Players are only as good as their situation allows them to be athletic freak or not. BJGE is a better choice and not half the RB as Stewart but the Bengals gave him opportunity.

As for Peterson comparisons? Seriously? He is only 2 years older than Stewart and even taking away his 2 best years I doubt Stewart has a 1/3 of the numbers AP has. For my team who the better "athlete" is...Peterson helps me win and Stewart doesn't

 

[Bruce Hammond]

If Stewart was such a phenomenal prospect then DWill would have been moved out years ago. The fact they paid DWill as a top 10RB contract with Stewart on a rookie deal means the Panthers don't share the optimism.

I don't think that's a valid assumption. I think all it means is that former GM Hurney was an idiot with the owner's money. And with a lot of other things -- IMO one of the worst GMs in the league when he was in there. Now he's gone.

 

[maxhyde]

The idiot that drafted Stewart you mean? Sharp enough to pick talent but not smart enough to play it? That would make him an unusual idiot then as most guys can't pick the talent but know to play it when they have it.

Not sure the GM is the problem when a player can't stay healthy or beat out a guy he is more talented than through a couple different coaching staffs.

Anyway maybe he is the superhuman talent in a tough situation. I just find it easier to believe that great athletic ability isn't all it takes to be a great NFL player

 

[squistion]

The idiot that drafted Stewart you mean? Sharp enough to pick talent but not smart enough to play it? That would make him an unusual idiot then as most guys can't pick the talent but know to play it when they have it.

Not sure the GM is the problem when a player can't stay healthy or beat out a guy he is more talented than through a couple different coaching staffs.

Anyway maybe he is the superhuman talent in a tough situation. I just find it easier to believe that great athletic ability isn't all it takes to be a great NFL player

 

[Biabreakable]

1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.

1. You can laugh at it, but it's still accurate. In order to match Stewart's weight/height ratio, Peterson would have to weigh 257 pounds at his height.

You completely ignored the point in this exchange. I bolded it for you this time.

Odd argument considering that Stewart looks like The Incredible Hulk.

I agree that distribution of weight can cause misleading BMI numbers, but it doesn't apply in this case.

I still have not seen Stewarts Hulk resemblance like this - http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/2012/11/whos_the_best_incredible_hulk_the_rock_or_adrian_peterson_poll.php

X

Care to try for a reasonable comparison? How about Elijah Price?

 

[SSOG]

If Stewart was such a phenomenal prospect then DWill would have been moved out years ago. The fact they paid DWill as a top 10RB contract with Stewart on a rookie deal means the Panthers don't share the optimism.

I don't think that's a valid assumption. I think all it means is that former GM Hurney was an idiot with the owner's money. And with a lot of other things -- IMO one of the worst GMs in the league when he was in there. Now he's gone.

The situation is more complicated than that. Leading up to the end of the CBA, Jerry Richardson issued a mandate to be incredibly cheap (I'm sure he'd call it "cautious") until he saw what the new CBA looked like. Carolina purged assets and cleared cap space like it was their full-time job, leading to the 2010 season where Carolina was so talent deprived that even John Fox, a good coach who is at his best getting talent-shy rosters to overperform, couldn't lead them to better than a 2-14 record (only to get ushered out the door himself to save the cheapskate owner even more money). While owners like Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder were using the uncapped season to try to load up on talent, Richardson was engaged in a race to the bottom to see just how little money he could possibly spend on an NFL franchise. The problem, then, was that the new CBA came out, and it contained a salary floor, which Richardson and the Panthers were something like $30 million below with only half their players under contract. That, combined with a weak free agent class, led to Carolina giving ridiculous money to anyone with a pulse. Just look at Olindo Mare, who got a 4-year, $12 million dollar contract that offseason (he lasted just one season). Mare's tenure with the team was such a joke that a Panthers fan blog wrote an article about Carolina resigning him for April Fools' this year. His tenure was so forgettable that it doesn't even show up on his Wikipedia page, which lists his team in 2010, and his team in 2012, but not his team in 2011. Today, when he should be two years into the contract, he's instead out of football entirely. And Mare wasn't the only bad contract that year. Faced with a terrible situation, Carolina spent huge money overpaying its own free agents, including Williams, leading to many of the national punditry joking up that they were busy "locking up their core" (off a 2-14 team). But it was really the least bad of all the bad options- they had to spend the money, and these guys were better than most of the free agents on the street. If you have to overpay someone, why not overpay the guys you got and earn some points for "loyalty"?Anyway, DeAngelo's contract isn't really a product of the FO's view of Stewart, it's a product of a unique and unprecedented situation. In a vacuum, the DeAngelo contract was a bad contract. In context, it was the least bad of a range of bad options.

 

[cstu]

Anyway, DeAngelo's contract isn't really a product of the FO's view of Stewart, it's a product of a unique and unprecedented situation. In a vacuum, the DeAngelo contract was a bad contract. In context, it was the least bad of a range of bad options.

Talk about revisionist. If all they needed to do is meet the salary floor they could have overpaid a someone just for that year, not locked up Williams with a $21M guaranteed contract.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Anyway, DeAngelo's contract isn't really a product of the FO's view of Stewart, it's a product of a unique and unprecedented situation. In a vacuum, the DeAngelo contract was a bad contract. In context, it was the least bad of a range of bad options.

Talk about revisionist. If all they needed to do is meet the salary floor they could have overpaid a someone just for that year, not locked up Williams with a $21M guaranteed contract.

Did you miss the rest of the post? We're talking about one of the most incompetent combos of owner + GM in the modern history of professional football. Of course you are right - that is exactly what most of us thought the Panthers should do. And we were all proven correct. But that doesn't change the reality.....that the owner/GM combo was foolish.

 

[SSOG]

Anyway, DeAngelo's contract isn't really a product of the FO's view of Stewart, it's a product of a unique and unprecedented situation. In a vacuum, the DeAngelo contract was a bad contract. In context, it was the least bad of a range of bad options.

Talk about revisionist. If all they needed to do is meet the salary floor they could have overpaid a someone just for that year, not locked up Williams with a $21M guaranteed contract.

It's only revisionist if I didn't believe it at the time. Look, even if we leave aside all talk about WHY they did what they did and just present the facts on the ground, it's pretty compelling. Up through 2010, Carolina was shedding money like their life depended on it. The front office even acknowledged that that was what they were doing- using the uncapped season to shed salary. Then, the new CBA was signed, and for whatever reason you want to believe, Carolina suffered one of the most extreme changes of direction you'll ever see. Over a one month span, in addition to the Mare and Williams contracts, Carolina also gave huge new deals to its defensive end, its entire LB corps, and its center. The guaranteed money alone from those seven deals totaled $125 MILLION, all paid out over the course of about 30 days. Seven contracts, every one of them insanely above expected market price, and the end result was locking in the core of a 2-14 franchise. Maybe they were spending up to a floor. Maybe their decision makers all suffered a collective stroke. Maybe they liked getting the #1 overall pick so much they wanted to immortalized the roster that did it. Who knows. All I know is, taken in the context of everything else Carolina was doing at the time, I think the correct reaction wasn't "wow, Carolina just gave DeAngelo huge money, they must not be believers in Stewart". I think the correct reaction was "wow, either Carolina has gone completely off the rails, or else someone has a gun to Richardson's head and they'll pull the trigger if he doesn't spend $3m a day, every day for an entire month". If we're talking about revisionist history, I think this idea that the Williams signing meant Carolina doesn't like Stewart is a revisionist idea. If Carolina didn't like Stewart, or if Carolina thought he was an overrated tease or mediocre talent, Carolina wouldn't have given Stewart a huge new contract, too. The DeAngelo contract says very little about what Carolina thinks of Stewart.

 

[maxhyde]

To me it says enough about Stewart they didn't just let Williams get paid by somebody else, trade him for whatever they could get or franchise him. Generally when you draft a better player 2 years later you let the previous guy walk at the end of his deal or trade him before that deal ends.

Nobody said they didn't like Stewart I am only proposing that maybe he wasn't the ultra-special RB talent that has been suggested here. They obviously like Stewart because they paid him too....strange it wasn't as much as DWilliams deal.

 

[FF Ninja]

I know he was banged up early and late but he didn't appear on the injury report at all weeks 5 - 12. His rank among RBs in PPG those weeks? 45th. He was hot garbage last year, and the injuries are stuff that every RB deals with every year.The guy I was disagreeing with called him a "strong buy low" as RB24 -- barring DeAngelo getting cut, I'd say RB24 is close to the upside here (2013 only). And if DeAngelo does get cut, I guarantee you won't be drafting Stewart at anywhere near RB24...

Sorry I missed that earlier question. But the answer is pretty obvious. From weeks 5-12, he only averaged 10 carries and 2 rec per game. During that span (7 games) he averaged a bizarre 3.4 ypc and only scored 1 TD. If you honestly expect that workload, that ypc, and that TD rate to continue then sure, nothing has changed and you can value him as RB45 in 2013.

Personally, I am expecting something in the 4.5 ypc range this year and more than 12 touches per game. I also think his season TD total will be greater than 2. Even if he only gets 12 touches a game, his ypc and scoring returning to normal levels would probably net you something close to his ADP value. That's why I think he's a strong buy in redrafts. I think there's an 80% chance or better that he meets or exceeds the value you'd pay. That alone makes him a value play, but if you look at the other RBs drafted at that range, his ceiling is much higher. It is hard to incorporate ceilings into rankings, but given that this is just icing on top of the cake, you almost don't need to spend too much time weighing this portion of his value.

I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as far as his performance last year, but I'm having a hard time seeing where more touches or a decent increase in TDs is going to come from. Cam, Tolbert, and DeAngelo all get more red zone touches. Tolbert can catch, so another 47 catch year (2011) doesn't look likely. DeAngelo continues to be a more effective runner -- there's no shame in that as DeAngelo Williams is the most under-rated talent at RB in the NFL the last decade or so -- but it is what it is for Stewart. I see 2011 with about 1/2 the catches (and a RB25 - RB30 finish) as the most likely outcome barring something unforseen. Not a terrible pick as a late RB2, but I wouldn't be doing cartwheels about it.

The bump in TDs doesn't have to be that much to get him from RB45 to RB24 in all likelihood. Actually, I just looked at the data dominator and I'm not seeing how you got RB45 for that time span. I know you used PPG, but given that he had his bye week during that span, his rank should be equal or lower to his PPG rank. I'm seeing that he was RB35 during that span. He was 17.7 points below RB24, so we're talking about just over 2 points per game.

But let's look at the RBs taken after him in the PDSL that I've referenced: L.Miller, Mendenhall, Ballard, BJGE, Bradshaw, Ingram, Bernard ®, DWill. Would you be doing cartwheels about any of those guys? I like the risk/reward and floor/ceiling of Stewart at that spot, especially compared to those around him.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's not just that Carolina paid DeAngelo, it's that DeAngelo (and others) have been every bit as good as Stewart during that time. For as talented as he's supposed to be he hasn't stood out amongst his peers, including the year he and Mike Goodson were the guys.

Stewart seems to get a pass on everything for some reason. I've seen several of Stewart's biggest supporters harp on not putting too much stock into someone that put up good numbers in a timeshare or on fresh legs at the end of the year. Yet Stewart not only does that, but he does that in an incredible situation where Shonn Green could have put up 5ypc, he does it without standing out amongst his peers (this isn't like Kevan Barlow or Steven Jackson out-performing the guy they were splitting time with by a full yard per carry), he does it with injury concerns, and he fails to take hold of the job when the coaches try to hand it to him and there's NO talk whatsoever that maybe the guy is just a running back who spent a few years on fresh legs in a great system.

I get it, he looks/measures the part. But with all that you'd think he would have stood out statistically compared to a now aging Williams this past year or Mike Goodson in 2010, or really anyone he's split time with throughout his career.

People are still keeping the attitude they had early on in Stewart's career where he was obviously some great back that would be an instant top 3 back who was being held back by dumb management. He's being held back by himself now (they tried to give it to him last year and HE failed to take it) and even if he does win the job he's not the instant top 3 guy we once thought he was as Carolina's system is no longer elite and he's yet to show he can play above that.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

It's not just that Carolina paid DeAngelo, it's that DeAngelo (and others) have been every bit as good as Stewart during that time. For as talented as he's supposed to be he hasn't stood out amongst his peers, including the year he and Mike Goodson were the guys.

Stewart seems to get a pass on everything for some reason. I've seen several of Stewart's biggest supporters harp on not putting too much stock into someone that put up good numbers in a timeshare or on fresh legs at the end of the year. Yet Stewart not only does that, but he does that in an incredible situation where Shonn Green could have put up 5ypc, he does it without standing out amongst his peers (this isn't like Kevan Barlow or Steven Jackson out-performing the guy they were splitting time with by a full yard per carry), he does it with injury concerns, and he fails to take hold of the job when the coaches try to hand it to him and there's NO talk whatsoever that maybe the guy is just a running back who spent a few years on fresh legs in a great system.

I get it, he looks/measures the part. But with all that you'd think he would have stood out statistically compared to a now aging Williams this past year or Mike Goodson in 2010, or really anyone he's split time with throughout his career.

People are still keeping the attitude they had early on in Stewart's career where he was obviously some great back that would be an instant top 3 back who was being held back by dumb management. He's being held back by himself now (they tried to give it to him last year and HE failed to take it) and even if he does win the job he's not the instant top 3 guy we once thought he was as Carolina's system is no longer elite and he's yet to show he can play above that.

I think you bring up a good point, that it is well worth considering situation in regards to Stewart's stats. Carolina was a RB paradise for a while, and that fact has to be weighed when considering Stewart's good ypc.

However, as has been stated ad nauseum, many would not consider being slightly outproduced by DeAngelo Williams a negative. Last year is of very dubious value since Stewart was not healthy for a single game, as evidenced by his ankle surgery after the season. So he didn't "fail to take it" when they tried to give him the job, he was injured.

Regarding Goodson having a better YPC in 2010... again, dubious value here, IMO. Stats can be misleading. In the 14 games where both Stewart and Goodson were active, Goodson ran for 58 - 232 = 4.00 ypc and Stewart ran for 178 - 770 = 4.32 ypc. One may also consider opponents faced; San Fran gave up the 2nd lowest ypc. Goodson had zero rushes against them. If we take Stewart's carries in that game out of consideration, he averaged 4.52 for the rest of the year vs 4.39 for Goodson. Or let's give Goodson Williams' carries in that game (19-44)... now Goodson's season ypc drops to 4.06.

And I know we had this discussion before. Again, how much does it matter that Goodson had .06 ypc more than Stewart, especially when Stewart had 74% more carries? That does not strike me as statistically significant, it is merely a trivial factoid. We don't care that Stewart held a 5.1 ypc to 2.2 ypc advantage over Goodson the year before, or that Stewart averaged 4.92 ypc in the time that Goodson was in CAR averaging 4.01 ypc.

 

[Shutout]

Okay, but now you are talking value, and getting great value out of someone doesn't mean they single-handledly carried your team to a title. Two of my championship teams in 2012 had Alfred Morris, and I got him for around $5-$7 in both auctions, which was HUGE, but that doesn't mean he single-handledly carried my teams to those championships. That was my beef here, the use of the "single-handledly carried my team to a title" phrase. Also, was being the number 5 RB over the last half of the season really that impressive given those putrid games I pointed out that he had. Consistency is the key to a great player, not putting up 200 yards one game and 29 in another (especially for RBs, who tend to be way more consistent than WRs). What if Stewart had put up those 35 and 29 yard games in weeks 15 and 16? That second half RB5 wouldn't look nearly as impressive.

Value is pretty relevant when discussing Stewart. If you buy him as rb22 in a startup and he gives you three top-5 seasons, that's worth a lot more than if you buy Peterson as rb1 and he does the same. That's what I was saying about reaching a point in the draft where upside begins to far outweigh downside.As for consistency... It's not the key to a great player. Great players are often consistent, but that gets the causal arrow backward- players that score a lot of point tend to have fewer games where they don't score many points, sure, but that's because they score so many points. Players who are consistent don't become great, players who are great become consistent. Add to this the fact that consistency is not consistent (knowing how consistent a player was in year N tells you very little about how consistent he'll be in year N+1), and that consistency really isn't that valuable (someone- maybe ZWK?- ran a study that found that a super-consistent WR that scored 180 points would be expected to net as many wins for his owner as a super-inconsistent WR that scored 182 points). To finish this off, consider that Jonathan Stewart has actually historically been a pretty consistent guy. Come up with any definition of consistency you want (games above 8 points, percentage of games within one std dev of his scoring average, percentage of points scored in his four best games) and compare Stewart to the two guys immediately above and below him in the year-end rankings and you'll see that Stewart is no more inconsistent than we would expect an RB with that many points to be. In short, consistency isn't worth much of anything, IMO- give me the guy who scores more points, regardless of how consistently he does so.If Stewart had laid eggs in week 15 and 16 of 2009, I wouldn't be talking about how he carried teams to titles, and I wouldn't be saying I got a pretty good return on him already. He didn't, though, and the championship trophy he put on my mantle disagrees with anyone who says he's been a disappointment so far and has underperformed what his owners had to pay to get him.

But............wouldn't the majority of teams who relied on Stewart for good production probably not have made the playoffs, or gotten past week 14 even if they did??

So he probably cost more people titles than he actually got for people.

I mean, I can't value a guy any differently just because he happened to have a couple good weeks during the fantasy playoffs as opposed to say weeks 8 and 9.

It's like what you mentioned about Foster and Morris. Foster had the better year, is the better RB, and is the more valuable RB, and I highly doubt ANYONE (maybe peso, haha) would take Morris straight up over Foster in a dynasty league. But chances are not too many Foster owners won a title last year because of his crappy week 16 numbers. I take that as just blind luck, and absolutely useless when determining his value for the future.

It's all about championships, so for you PERSONALLY he has worked out for you because he was a key part of your championship. That doesn't mean than he hasn't been a disappointment in general.

On the flip side, as long as you have a large enough roster to be able to keep him this whole time and still have him, he still has a chance to be valuable to your team. I still like him, probably more than 90% of all owners, and think he can still have some nice years. So he may end his career and be viewed differently than he is now, but as of NOW, he has been a disappointment. Not worthless, but a disappointment.

This line of thinking is very true. In my case, foster has personally cost me a title (or at least I blame him specifically..LOL) two times in the past three years. He's had a dud last year in 16 and a dud in 15 three years ago and I lost narrow-margin games.

But still, you can't jettison a guy because of that. That's just the dumb luck aspect of fantasy (or the terrible rules in your league...depending on how you view such things).

So, when someone points to how JSTEW or any other player led them to a title once upon a time; I get that. But you have to keep the thought tempered to a degree.

 

[Shutout]

If Stewart was such a phenomenal prospect then DWill would have been moved out years ago. The fact they paid DWill as a top 10RB contract with Stewart on a rookie deal means the Panthers don't share the optimism.

I don't think that's a valid assumption. I think all it means is that former GM Hurney was an idiot with the owner's money. And with a lot of other things -- IMO one of the worst GMs in the league when he was in there. Now he's gone.

Agree completely. The Panthers approach to drafting and resigning players has been abismal. As high as they have been drafting YEAR AFTER YEAR AFTER YEAR, I think the only player they have that has made multiple pro-bowls has been Beason (of course, Cam will likely be there someday). But the point is, lots of opportunity to draft, sign, and re-sign , and much more often than not, people look in on their deals and scratch their heads.

But now there is a new regime and that gives me as much excitement about JSTEW as anything. I think this group has a good chance to get it together. I expect them to draft interior d-line help early, I expect them to cut ties with DWIL and I expect them to go in the right direction with JSTEW benefiting enough from it from a fantasy perspective to be more than worth where you draft him. Trading for him in established leagues might be trickier because of the whole issue with how the people who have him likely have been waiting and waiting and won't want to feel like they gave him away at the worst time.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Okay, but now you are talking value, and getting great value out of someone doesn't mean they single-handledly carried your team to a title. Two of my championship teams in 2012 had Alfred Morris, and I got him for around $5-$7 in both auctions, which was HUGE, but that doesn't mean he single-handledly carried my teams to those championships. That was my beef here, the use of the "single-handledly carried my team to a title" phrase. Also, was being the number 5 RB over the last half of the season really that impressive given those putrid games I pointed out that he had. Consistency is the key to a great player, not putting up 200 yards one game and 29 in another (especially for RBs, who tend to be way more consistent than WRs). What if Stewart had put up those 35 and 29 yard games in weeks 15 and 16? That second half RB5 wouldn't look nearly as impressive.

Value is pretty relevant when discussing Stewart. If you buy him as rb22 in a startup and he gives you three top-5 seasons, that's worth a lot more than if you buy Peterson as rb1 and he does the same. That's what I was saying about reaching a point in the draft where upside begins to far outweigh downside.As for consistency... It's not the key to a great player. Great players are often consistent, but that gets the causal arrow backward- players that score a lot of point tend to have fewer games where they don't score many points, sure, but that's because they score so many points. Players who are consistent don't become great, players who are great become consistent. Add to this the fact that consistency is not consistent (knowing how consistent a player was in year N tells you very little about how consistent he'll be in year N+1), and that consistency really isn't that valuable (someone- maybe ZWK?- ran a study that found that a super-consistent WR that scored 180 points would be expected to net as many wins for his owner as a super-inconsistent WR that scored 182 points). To finish this off, consider that Jonathan Stewart has actually historically been a pretty consistent guy. Come up with any definition of consistency you want (games above 8 points, percentage of games within one std dev of his scoring average, percentage of points scored in his four best games) and compare Stewart to the two guys immediately above and below him in the year-end rankings and you'll see that Stewart is no more inconsistent than we would expect an RB with that many points to be. In short, consistency isn't worth much of anything, IMO- give me the guy who scores more points, regardless of how consistently he does so.If Stewart had laid eggs in week 15 and 16 of 2009, I wouldn't be talking about how he carried teams to titles, and I wouldn't be saying I got a pretty good return on him already. He didn't, though, and the championship trophy he put on my mantle disagrees with anyone who says he's been a disappointment so far and has underperformed what his owners had to pay to get him.

Okay, again, you are focusing mostly on value, which was not part of the equation I originally had a problem with. I don't know you can still he put a championship trophy on your mantle all by himself. Did the rest of your team suck ### down the stretch and in the playoffs and all of your opponents' lineups also lay eggs? Cause otherwise it is foolish to ever suggest that one guy gave you a championship (although I get the hyperbole of saying it when players have all-time great seasons, like ADP this past year, Moss in '07, Peyton in '04, etc.).

And if all it takes is one good stretch for a player to not be a disappointment, does his solid play this past season prove that Knowshon Moreno is not a disappointment? I mean, his solid numbers for excellent value (since most probably picked him up for nothing since he went undrafted or not auctioned off in most leagues) likely helped some fantasy teams win titles, so he is now not a disappointment as well?

 

[Ghost Rider]

It's not just that Carolina paid DeAngelo, it's that DeAngelo (and others) have been every bit as good as Stewart during that time. For as talented as he's supposed to be he hasn't stood out amongst his peers, including the year he and Mike Goodson were the guys.

Stewart seems to get a pass on everything for some reason. I've seen several of Stewart's biggest supporters harp on not putting too much stock into someone that put up good numbers in a timeshare or on fresh legs at the end of the year. Yet Stewart not only does that, but he does that in an incredible situation where Shonn Green could have put up 5ypc, he does it without standing out amongst his peers (this isn't like Kevan Barlow or Steven Jackson out-performing the guy they were splitting time with by a full yard per carry), he does it with injury concerns, and he fails to take hold of the job when the coaches try to hand it to him and there's NO talk whatsoever that maybe the guy is just a running back who spent a few years on fresh legs in a great system.

I get it, he looks/measures the part. But with all that you'd think he would have stood out statistically compared to a now aging Williams this past year or Mike Goodson in 2010, or really anyone he's split time with throughout his career.

People are still keeping the attitude they had early on in Stewart's career where he was obviously some great back that would be an instant top 3 back who was being held back by dumb management. He's being held back by himself now (they tried to give it to him last year and HE failed to take it) and even if he does win the job he's not the instant top 3 guy we once thought he was as Carolina's system is no longer elite and he's yet to show he can play above that.

By and large, I agree with this. His small legion of supporters continue to cling to this idea that he could be beastly if everything falls just right (as if everything has to fall just right for every great talent in the NFL for them to produce at a high level). Like you said, he was given his shot this past year and flopped. Oh, but he was hurt. See, there is one of those excuses again. It's always something with him. That is kind of the point some of us are making. He obviously had the talent to be a great NFL RB, but he simply hasn't been one.

 

[Shutout]

It's not just that Carolina paid DeAngelo, it's that DeAngelo (and others) have been every bit as good as Stewart during that time. For as talented as he's supposed to be he hasn't stood out amongst his peers, including the year he and Mike Goodson were the guys.

Stewart seems to get a pass on everything for some reason. I've seen several of Stewart's biggest supporters harp on not putting too much stock into someone that put up good numbers in a timeshare or on fresh legs at the end of the year. Yet Stewart not only does that, but he does that in an incredible situation where Shonn Green could have put up 5ypc, he does it without standing out amongst his peers (this isn't like Kevan Barlow or Steven Jackson out-performing the guy they were splitting time with by a full yard per carry), he does it with injury concerns, and he fails to take hold of the job when the coaches try to hand it to him and there's NO talk whatsoever that maybe the guy is just a running back who spent a few years on fresh legs in a great system.

I get it, he looks/measures the part. But with all that you'd think he would have stood out statistically compared to a now aging Williams this past year or Mike Goodson in 2010, or really anyone he's split time with throughout his career.

People are still keeping the attitude they had early on in Stewart's career where he was obviously some great back that would be an instant top 3 back who was being held back by dumb management. He's being held back by himself now (they tried to give it to him last year and HE failed to take it) and even if he does win the job he's not the instant top 3 guy we once thought he was as Carolina's system is no longer elite and he's yet to show he can play above that.

By and large, I agree with this. His small legion of supporters continue to cling to this idea that he could be beastly if everything falls just right (as if everything has to fall just right for every great talent in the NFL for them to produce at a high level). Like you said, he was given his shot this past year and flopped. Oh, but he was hurt. See, there is one of those excuses again. It's always something with him. That is kind of the point some of us are making. He obviously had the talent to be a great NFL RB, but he simply hasn't been one.

Everything you say is true but isn't it a bit of short-selling the discussion to make it seem so categorically a "non-discussion"? (and this isn't a specific quesiton to you, just a quesiton to the general body in this discussion).

I mean, the point of these discussions shouldn't be for someone to feel good about going on record as saying "this guy will be good" and another guy to say "no he won't" and to just sit back and see who is correct, given time.

The point is to evaluate the idea and stop slinging snot back and forth over the past and, instead, look at the present and what may be in store for the future and to say why the present and future holds indicators (and what those indicators are) instead of speaking about the past ad naseum.

If we were sitting here in 2012, we could easily be having the same discussion about Michael Crabtree and Dez Bryant (and we did) and their values are clearly very different now than then.

Even with marginal players like Martellus Bennett and Knowshon Moreno, we could have been having discussions about if a change of opportunity would translate into a different level of production or if changes in the team might open a door at some point during the season because of an aging RB in front of them. We had those discussions too and despite the overwhelming "thumbs down" on all of these guys last year, we see that they did, in fact, turn out very different and all those players had pretty good value.

And there are lots of other guys like this every year but the trend always seems to be the same: Supporter A always poses a quesiton based on the change they see and asks a question about the future and Detractor B always dismisses it, citing the past. Those are two different discussions (the future and the past) disguised as the same discussion.

You know, it is easy to lean on the past and quote some nice stats and basically sit back and say "prove me wrong" but those perspectives NEVER cash in on the Fosters, Dez Bryants, Victor Cruz, and perhaps, JSTEWs of the league.

 

[ghostguy123]

It's not just that Carolina paid DeAngelo, it's that DeAngelo (and others) have been every bit as good as Stewart during that time. For as talented as he's supposed to be he hasn't stood out amongst his peers, including the year he and Mike Goodson were the guys.

Stewart seems to get a pass on everything for some reason. I've seen several of Stewart's biggest supporters harp on not putting too much stock into someone that put up good numbers in a timeshare or on fresh legs at the end of the year. Yet Stewart not only does that, but he does that in an incredible situation where Shonn Green could have put up 5ypc, he does it without standing out amongst his peers (this isn't like Kevan Barlow or Steven Jackson out-performing the guy they were splitting time with by a full yard per carry), he does it with injury concerns, and he fails to take hold of the job when the coaches try to hand it to him and there's NO talk whatsoever that maybe the guy is just a running back who spent a few years on fresh legs in a great system.

I get it, he looks/measures the part. But with all that you'd think he would have stood out statistically compared to a now aging Williams this past year or Mike Goodson in 2010, or really anyone he's split time with throughout his career.

People are still keeping the attitude they had early on in Stewart's career where he was obviously some great back that would be an instant top 3 back who was being held back by dumb management. He's being held back by himself now (they tried to give it to him last year and HE failed to take it) and even if he does win the job he's not the instant top 3 guy we once thought he was as Carolina's system is no longer elite and he's yet to show he can play above that.

By and large, I agree with this. His small legion of supporters continue to cling to this idea that he could be beastly if everything falls just right (as if everything has to fall just right for every great talent in the NFL for them to produce at a high level). Like you said, he was given his shot this past year and flopped. Oh, but he was hurt. See, there is one of those excuses again. It's always something with him. That is kind of the point some of us are making. He obviously had the talent to be a great NFL RB, but he simply hasn't been one.

Everything you say is true but isn't it a bit of short-selling the discussion to make it seem so categorically a "non-discussion"? (and this isn't a specific quesiton to you, just a quesiton to the general body in this discussion).

I mean, the point of these discussions shouldn't be for someone to feel good about going on record as saying "this guy will be good" and another guy to say "no he won't" and to just sit back and see who is correct, given time.

The point is to evaluate the idea and stop slinging snot back and forth over the past and, instead, look at the present and what may be in store for the future and to say why the present and future holds indicators (and what those indicators are) instead of speaking about the past ad naseum.

If we were sitting here in 2012, we could easily be having the same discussion about Michael Crabtree and Dez Bryant (and we did) and their values are clearly very different now than then.

Even with marginal players like Martellus Bennett and Knowshon Moreno, we could have been having discussions about if a change of opportunity would translate into a different level of production or if changes in the team might open a door at some point during the season because of an aging RB in front of them. We had those discussions too and despite the overwhelming "thumbs down" on all of these guys last year, we see that they did, in fact, turn out very different and all those players had pretty good value.

And there are lots of other guys like this every year but the trend always seems to be the same: Supporter A always poses a quesiton based on the change they see and asks a question about the future and Detractor B always dismisses it, citing the past. Those are two different discussions (the future and the past) disguised as the same discussion.

You know, it is easy to lean on the past and quote some nice stats and basically sit back and say "prove me wrong" but those perspectives NEVER cash in on the Fosters, Dez Bryants, Victor Cruz, and perhaps, JSTEWs of the league.

I am not so sure Stewart compares to those other guys you names, because Stewart got 10x the opportunity to succeed than those other guys did before it panned out for them. This is what, Stewarts SIXTH year now, and every year to this point he was hyped and let people down (outside of one year where he was still erratic).

I totally agree that focusing on the past too much will keep you from picking up a lot of good players, but in THIS particular case the past is more than half of what his career will likely be. I mean, five years is a LOT of "past" to look at, where those other guys like Dez only had a couple years, and actually did fairly well to the point where he wasn't taking teams to titles, but was at least useful.

And I say this as one of the bigger Stewart supporters. One most recent trade in the other thread was Stewart for pick 8. I would take the Stewart side of that this year pretty easily.

 

[SSOG]

It's not just that Carolina paid DeAngelo, it's that DeAngelo (and others) have been every bit as good as Stewart during that time. For as talented as he's supposed to be he hasn't stood out amongst his peers, including the year he and Mike Goodson were the guys.

Stewart seems to get a pass on everything for some reason. I've seen several of Stewart's biggest supporters harp on not putting too much stock into someone that put up good numbers in a timeshare or on fresh legs at the end of the year. Yet Stewart not only does that, but he does that in an incredible situation where Shonn Green could have put up 5ypc, he does it without standing out amongst his peers (this isn't like Kevan Barlow or Steven Jackson out-performing the guy they were splitting time with by a full yard per carry), he does it with injury concerns, and he fails to take hold of the job when the coaches try to hand it to him and there's NO talk whatsoever that maybe the guy is just a running back who spent a few years on fresh legs in a great system.

I get it, he looks/measures the part. But with all that you'd think he would have stood out statistically compared to a now aging Williams this past year or Mike Goodson in 2010, or really anyone he's split time with throughout his career.

People are still keeping the attitude they had early on in Stewart's career where he was obviously some great back that would be an instant top 3 back who was being held back by dumb management. He's being held back by himself now (they tried to give it to him last year and HE failed to take it) and even if he does win the job he's not the instant top 3 guy we once thought he was as Carolina's system is no longer elite and he's yet to show he can play above that.

Since 2008-

Yards per carry:

5.0 DeAngelo

4.7 Stewart

4.0 Goodson

3.4 Tolbert

Also, moving beyond YPC (which is a pretty flawed metric heavily influenced by usage patterns), you've got the following stats:

2008 DVOA: Williams (24.9%, 1st overall), Stewart (4.6%, 13th overall)

2009 DVOA: Stewart (12.8%, 8th overall), Williams (11.3%, 10th overall)

2010 DVOA: Stewart (-12.2%, 37th overall), Goodson (-15.3%, 52nd overall), Williams (-17.2%, not enough carries to be ranked)

2011 DVOA: Stewart (23.4%, 2nd overall), Williams (18.0%, 3rd)

2012 DVOA: Williams (-6.6%, 26th overall), Stewart (-18.5%, not enough carries to be ranked)

Williams topped Stewart in Jon's rookie year, and again last year (when he was injured all season), and Stewart had the best DVOA on the Panthers the other three years.

2008 Success Rate: Stewart (49%, 11th), Williams (47%, 19th)

2009 Success Rate: Stewart (50%, 19th), Williams (45%, 30th)

2010 Success Rate: Goodson (38%, 42nd), Stewart (36%, 45th), Williams (not enough carries)

2011 Success Rate: Stewart (53%, 8th), Williams (46%, 28th)

2012 Success Rate: Williams (48%, 22nd), Stewart (not enough carries)

And of course, there's always Pro Football Focus...

Point being, Stewart has not been outperformed by his teammates- even if you go purely by the statistics and ignore the "eyeball test". He's performed comparably (and even slightly better) to Williams (who also benefits from not having his own rookie season thrown into the comparison...), and he's dramatically outperformed everyone else. And, again, since DeAngelo Williams is one of the best backs of the last decade, performing comparably (and even slightly better) to him reinforces that Stewart is a fantastic talent who has been very productive to this point in his career.

Okay, but now you are talking value, and getting great value out of someone doesn't mean they single-handledly carried your team to a title. Two of my championship teams in 2012 had Alfred Morris, and I got him for around $5-$7 in both auctions, which was HUGE, but that doesn't mean he single-handledly carried my teams to those championships. That was my beef here, the use of the "single-handledly carried my team to a title" phrase.

Also, was being the number 5 RB over the last half of the season really that impressive given those putrid games I pointed out that he had. Consistency is the key to a great player, not putting up 200 yards one game and 29 in another (especially for RBs, who tend to be way more consistent than WRs). What if Stewart had put up those 35 and 29 yard games in weeks 15 and 16? That second half RB5 wouldn't look nearly as impressive.

Value is pretty relevant when discussing Stewart. If you buy him as rb22 in a startup and he gives you three top-5 seasons, that's worth a lot more than if you buy Peterson as rb1 and he does the same. That's what I was saying about reaching a point in the draft where upside begins to far outweigh downside.

As for consistency... It's not the key to a great player. Great players are often consistent, but that gets the causal arrow backward- players that score a lot of point tend to have fewer games where they don't score many points, sure, but that's because they score so many points. Players who are consistent don't become great, players who are great become consistent. Add to this the fact that consistency is not consistent (knowing how consistent a player was in year N tells you very little about how consistent he'll be in year N+1), and that consistency really isn't that valuable (someone- maybe ZWK?- ran a study that found that a super-consistent WR that scored 180 points would be expected to net as many wins for his owner as a super-inconsistent WR that scored 182 points). To finish this off, consider that Jonathan Stewart has actually historically been a pretty consistent guy. Come up with any definition of consistency you want (games above 8 points, percentage of games within one std dev of his scoring average, percentage of points scored in his four best games) and compare Stewart to the two guys immediately above and below him in the year-end rankings and you'll see that Stewart is no more inconsistent than we would expect an RB with that many points to be. In short, consistency isn't worth much of anything, IMO- give me the guy who scores more points, regardless of how consistently he does so.

If Stewart had laid eggs in week 15 and 16 of 2009, I wouldn't be talking about how he carried teams to titles, and I wouldn't be saying I got a pretty good return on him already. He didn't, though, and the championship trophy he put on my mantle disagrees with anyone who says he's been a disappointment so far and has underperformed what his owners had to pay to get him.

Okay, again, you are focusing mostly on value, which was not part of the equation I originally had a problem with. I don't know you can still he put a championship trophy on your mantle all by himself. Did the rest of your team suck ### down the stretch and in the playoffs and all of your opponents' lineups also lay eggs? Cause otherwise it is foolish to ever suggest that one guy gave you a championship (although I get the hyperbole of saying it when players have all-time great seasons, like ADP this past year, Moss in '07, Peyton in '04, etc.).

And if all it takes is one good stretch for a player to not be a disappointment, does his solid play this past season prove that Knowshon Moreno is not a disappointment? I mean, his solid numbers for excellent value (since most probably picked him up for nothing since he went undrafted or not auctioned off in most leagues) likely helped some fantasy teams win titles, so he is now not a disappointment as well?

It seems that there's a problem with the language that I used, and I apologize for that. No, Jonathan Stewart did not literally carry me to a championship. I did not submit a starting lineup that consisted of Stewart and 7 empty spots. You're right that I was being hyperbolic, and that seems to have distracted from my larger points, so I would be very happy to replace "he single-handedly carried me to a title" with "he was by far the most important player on a team that won the championship". That particular team was 8th in points scored, had a losing regular season record, snuck into the last playoff spot on tiebreakers (thanks to some big Stewart games down the stretch), and walked away with the championship largely because Stewart put up a couple of monster games (magnified by my league's yardage-heavy scoring).

Getting past the sticky particulars, though, what are your thoughts on my larger point? Jonathan Stewart is someone who I believe could explode and carry teams to championships (or, at the least, become the most important piece on championship-winning teams). As evidence for this assertion, I submit the fact that Jonathan Stewart has already done exactly that. And even if we want to ignore the timing (yes, it was lucky that Stewart's big games were week 15 and 16 instead of weeks 13 and 14), how many other RBs currently ranked in the late teens or later are both 26 or younger *AND* have a top 12 finish on their resume? What better proof that a player has huge upside than actually having a player demonstrate that huge upside in the NFL already?

There are a lot of important questions to ask about Stewart. Was last year a fluke resulting from his injury, or a meaningful sign of decline? What will his role be in Carolina going forward? These are very important questions, and it seems to me that there is a lot of room for genuine and legitimate disagreement. Was Jonathan Stewart ever any good? Obviously I'm biased, but I just don't see how there's room for significant disagreement on this one. Stewart has performed comparably to DeAngelo Williams, who is one of the best backs of this generation. He has a top 12 fantasy finish, averages 1000 yards a year for his career despite playing in a timeshare, has off-the-charts stats (both simple and advanced), is top 5 among active RBs in career YPC, holds an NFL record (most rushing yards in a player's first 3 starts), has a "small legion" of major fans who can't stop raving about how talented he is, and got a $38 million contract with $22 million guaranteed. It seems to me that Stewart has been every bit as good as his fans thought he was, and if last year's injury wasn't a harbinger of things to come, that talent will likely pay major dividends over the next 4 years. I'd much rather buy him as a low-end RB2 than a guy like Reggie Bush, Kendall Hunter, Mark Ingram, or Lamar Miller.

 

[ghostguy123]

SSOG, probably the biggest problem currently with Stewart is his situation.

I think he is very talented. I think he has performed well in his career on a "per touch" basis. I also think we may very well have seen the best from him regarding that "per touch" basis. Maybe, maybe not, but a string of nagging injuries plus aging doesn't usually allow a guy to get better, or even really maintain what he was.

Not to mention his situation seems to, and seems that it will continue to, limit his opportunity and upside.

Generally i think the cream rises to the top and talent wins out, which is why I am willing to still give up halfway decent value to trade for the guy. But he is in year 6 and not in a good situation for fantasy purposes.

He is getting old enough to where I probably pick a lot of less talented younger guys who are in better situations, including probably a few of the rookies this year depending where they land.

 

[Ghost Rider]

SSOG, like ghostguy said, one of the biggest problems with Stewart is his situation. Like I have said before, a) the Carolina coaching staff seemingly has no clue how to utilize their RBs on a consistent basis, and b) Cam Newton is so much of a runner, that he will inevitably take away a lot of yards and scoring opportunities from whatever RB gets the bulk of the carries. It also doesn't help that I think DeAngelo is still better than Stewart; look at how Williams did down the stretch this past season (his numbers inflated, albeit, by that week 17 game vs the Saints...I'd buy both Stewart and Williams as RB1s if they played New Orleans every week ). But even as well as Williams did there, it was still just a short stretch, and was inflated by three long scores, which cannot be counted on (as I know you have argued over the years, since TDs are by and large unpredictable). I don't have faith in that coaching staff to be smart enough to do it every week. It's like when the Rams under Mike Martz would go weeks without running the ball enough, he would remember to for a game or two, they'd racked up the rushing yards, and then boom, they were right back to throwing it non-stop (although Faulk still produced week in and week out thanks to being a beast in the passing game).

But anyway, again, I think there are too many variables working against Stewart (or really any Carolina RB right now), and you pretty much have to hope that either a) all of those variables turn around in your favor, or b) you grab a guy like Stewart on your team and he has a great stretch similar to DeAngelo's in December this past year and he helps your team that was good enough to get to the playoffs w/o much help from Stewart.

 

[ghostguy123]

SSOG, like ghostguy said, one of the biggest problems with Stewart is his situation. Like I have said before, a) the Carolina coaching staff seemingly has no clue how to utilize their RBs on a consistent basis, and b) Cam Newton is so much of a runner, that he will inevitably take away a lot of yards and scoring opportunities from whatever RB gets the bulk of the carries. It also doesn't help that I think DeAngelo is still better than Stewart; look at how Williams did down the stretch this past season (his numbers inflated, albeit, by that week 17 game vs the Saints...I'd buy both Stewart and Williams as RB1s if they played New Orleans every week ). But even as well as Williams did there, it was still just a short stretch, and was inflated by three long scores, which cannot be counted on (as I know you have argued over the years, since TDs are by and large unpredictable). I don't have faith in that coaching staff to be smart enough to do it every week. It's like when the Rams under Mike Martz would go weeks without running the ball enough, he would remember to for a game or two, they'd racked up the rushing yards, and then boom, they were right back to throwing it non-stop (although Faulk still produced week in and week out thanks to being a beast in the passing game).

But anyway, again, I think there are too many variables working against Stewart (or really any Carolina RB right now), and you pretty much have to hope that either a) all of those variables turn around in your favor, or b) you grab a guy like Stewart on your team and he has a great stretch similar to DeAngelo's in December this past year and he helps your team that was good enough to get to the playoffs w/o much help from Stewart.

ANything can happen in Carolina, and Stewart sure COULD end up producing because the situation could improve for him............but as a Stew owner in a few leagues at the time, I was sad when he re-signed, and I will be more sad if the don't cut Williams in June.

 

[maxhyde]

It's not just that Carolina paid DeAngelo, it's that DeAngelo (and others) have been every bit as good as Stewart during that time. For as talented as he's supposed to be he hasn't stood out amongst his peers, including the year he and Mike Goodson were the guys.

Stewart seems to get a pass on everything for some reason. I've seen several of Stewart's biggest supporters harp on not putting too much stock into someone that put up good numbers in a timeshare or on fresh legs at the end of the year. Yet Stewart not only does that, but he does that in an incredible situation where Shonn Green could have put up 5ypc, he does it without standing out amongst his peers (this isn't like Kevan Barlow or Steven Jackson out-performing the guy they were splitting time with by a full yard per carry), he does it with injury concerns, and he fails to take hold of the job when the coaches try to hand it to him and there's NO talk whatsoever that maybe the guy is just a running back who spent a few years on fresh legs in a great system.

I get it, he looks/measures the part. But with all that you'd think he would have stood out statistically compared to a now aging Williams this past year or Mike Goodson in 2010, or really anyone he's split time with throughout his career.

People are still keeping the attitude they had early on in Stewart's career where he was obviously some great back that would be an instant top 3 back who was being held back by dumb management. He's being held back by himself now (they tried to give it to him last year and HE failed to take it) and even if he does win the job he's not the instant top 3 guy we once thought he was as Carolina's system is no longer elite and he's yet to show he can play above that.

Since 2008-

Yards per carry:

5.0 DeAngelo

4.7 Stewart

4.0 Goodson

3.4 Tolbert

Also, moving beyond YPC (which is a pretty flawed metric heavily influenced by usage patterns), you've got the following stats:

2008 DVOA: Williams (24.9%, 1st overall), Stewart (4.6%, 13th overall)

2009 DVOA: Stewart (12.8%, 8th overall), Williams (11.3%, 10th overall)

2010 DVOA: Stewart (-12.2%, 37th overall), Goodson (-15.3%, 52nd overall), Williams (-17.2%, not enough carries to be ranked)

2011 DVOA: Stewart (23.4%, 2nd overall), Williams (18.0%, 3rd)

2012 DVOA: Williams (-6.6%, 26th overall), Stewart (-18.5%, not enough carries to be ranked)

Williams topped Stewart in Jon's rookie year, and again last year (when he was injured all season), and Stewart had the best DVOA on the Panthers the other three years.

2008 Success Rate: Stewart (49%, 11th), Williams (47%, 19th)

2009 Success Rate: Stewart (50%, 19th), Williams (45%, 30th)

2010 Success Rate: Goodson (38%, 42nd), Stewart (36%, 45th), Williams (not enough carries)

2011 Success Rate: Stewart (53%, 8th), Williams (46%, 28th)

2012 Success Rate: Williams (48%, 22nd), Stewart (not enough carries)

And of course, there's always Pro Football Focus...

Point being, Stewart has not been outperformed by his teammates- even if you go purely by the statistics and ignore the "eyeball test". He's performed comparably (and even slightly better) to Williams (who also benefits from not having his own rookie season thrown into the comparison...), and he's dramatically outperformed everyone else. And, again, since DeAngelo Williams is one of the best backs of the last decade, performing comparably (and even slightly better) to him reinforces that Stewart is a fantastic talent who has been very productive to this point in his career.

>

Okay, but now you are talking value, and getting great value out of someone doesn't mean they single-handledly carried your team to a title. Two of my championship teams in 2012 had Alfred Morris, and I got him for around $5-$7 in both auctions, which was HUGE, but that doesn't mean he single-handledly carried my teams to those championships. That was my beef here, the use of the "single-handledly carried my team to a title" phrase.

Also, was being the number 5 RB over the last half of the season really that impressive given those putrid games I pointed out that he had. Consistency is the key to a great player, not putting up 200 yards one game and 29 in another (especially for RBs, who tend to be way more consistent than WRs). What if Stewart had put up those 35 and 29 yard games in weeks 15 and 16? That second half RB5 wouldn't look nearly as impressive.

Value is pretty relevant when discussing Stewart. If you buy him as rb22 in a startup and he gives you three top-5 seasons, that's worth a lot more than if you buy Peterson as rb1 and he does the same. That's what I was saying about reaching a point in the draft where upside begins to far outweigh downside.As for consistency... It's not the key to a great player. Great players are often consistent, but that gets the causal arrow backward- players that score a lot of point tend to have fewer games where they don't score many points, sure, but that's because they score so many points. Players who are consistent don't become great, players who are great become consistent. Add to this the fact that consistency is not consistent (knowing how consistent a player was in year N tells you very little about how consistent he'll be in year N+1), and that consistency really isn't that valuable (someone- maybe ZWK?- ran a study that found that a super-consistent WR that scored 180 points would be expected to net as many wins for his owner as a super-inconsistent WR that scored 182 points). To finish this off, consider that Jonathan Stewart has actually historically been a pretty consistent guy. Come up with any definition of consistency you want (games above 8 points, percentage of games within one std dev of his scoring average, percentage of points scored in his four best games) and compare Stewart to the two guys immediately above and below him in the year-end rankings and you'll see that Stewart is no more inconsistent than we would expect an RB with that many points to be. In short, consistency isn't worth much of anything, IMO- give me the guy who scores more points, regardless of how consistently he does so.

If Stewart had laid eggs in week 15 and 16 of 2009, I wouldn't be talking about how he carried teams to titles, and I wouldn't be saying I got a pretty good return on him already. He didn't, though, and the championship trophy he put on my mantle disagrees with anyone who says he's been a disappointment so far and has underperformed what his owners had to pay to get him.

Okay, again, you are focusing mostly on value, which was not part of the equation I originally had a problem with. I don't know you can still he put a championship trophy on your mantle all by himself. Did the rest of your team suck ### down the stretch and in the playoffs and all of your opponents' lineups also lay eggs? Cause otherwise it is foolish to ever suggest that one guy gave you a championship (although I get the hyperbole of saying it when players have all-time great seasons, like ADP this past year, Moss in '07, Peyton in '04, etc.).

And if all it takes is one good stretch for a player to not be a disappointment, does his solid play this past season prove that Knowshon Moreno is not a disappointment? I mean, his solid numbers for excellent value (since most probably picked him up for nothing since he went undrafted or not auctioned off in most leagues) likely helped some fantasy teams win titles, so he is now not a disappointment as well?

It seems that there's a problem with the language that I used, and I apologize for that. No, Jonathan Stewart did not literally carry me to a championship. I did not submit a starting lineup that consisted of Stewart and 7 empty spots. You're right that I was being hyperbolic, and that seems to have distracted from my larger points, so I would be very happy to replace "he single-handedly carried me to a title" with "he was by far the most important player on a team that won the championship". That particular team was 8th in points scored, had a losing regular season record, snuck into the last playoff spot on tiebreakers (thanks to some big Stewart games down the stretch), and walked away with the championship largely because Stewart put up a couple of monster games (magnified by my league's yardage-heavy scoring).

Getting past the sticky particulars, though, what are your thoughts on my larger point? Jonathan Stewart is someone who I believe could explode and carry teams to championships (or, at the least, become the most important piece on championship-winning teams). As evidence for this assertion, I submit the fact that Jonathan Stewart has already done exactly that. And even if we want to ignore the timing (yes, it was lucky that Stewart's big games were week 15 and 16 instead of weeks 13 and 14), how many other RBs currently ranked in the late teens or later are both 26 or younger *AND* have a top 12 finish on their resume? What better proof that a player has huge upside than actually having a player demonstrate that huge upside in the NFL already?

There are a lot of important questions to ask about Stewart. Was last year a fluke resulting from his injury, or a meaningful sign of decline? What will his role be in Carolina going forward? These are very important questions, and it seems to me that there is a lot of room for genuine and legitimate disagreement. Was Jonathan Stewart ever any good? Obviously I'm biased, but I just don't see how there's room for significant disagreement on this one. Stewart has performed comparably to DeAngelo Williams, who is one of the best backs of this generation. He has a top 12 fantasy finish, averages 1000 yards a year for his career despite playing in a timeshare, has off-the-charts stats (both simple and advanced), is top 5 among active RBs in career YPC, holds an NFL record (most rushing yards in a player's first 3 starts), has a "small legion" of major fans who can't stop raving about how talented he is, and got a $38 million contract with $22 million guaranteed. It seems to me that Stewart has been every bit as good as his fans thought he was, and if last year's injury wasn't a harbinger of things to come, that talent will likely pay major dividends over the next 4 years. I'd much rather buy him as a low-end RB2 than a guy like Reggie Bush, Kendall Hunter, Mark Ingram, or Lamar Miller.

I will be taking both Bush and Miller before Stewart this year if those are options. Especially PPR. I have been thinking he would pay dividends the last 4 years and that hasn't really worked out for me.

With TD vultures like Newton and Tolbert playing with him DeAngelo isn't even a factor whether they cut him or not

 

[SSOG]

SSOG, like ghostguy said, one of the biggest problems with Stewart is his situation. Like I have said before, a) the Carolina coaching staff seemingly has no clue how to utilize their RBs on a consistent basis, and b) Cam Newton is so much of a runner, that he will inevitably take away a lot of yards and scoring opportunities from whatever RB gets the bulk of the carries. It also doesn't help that I think DeAngelo is still better than Stewart; look at how Williams did down the stretch this past season (his numbers inflated, albeit, by that week 17 game vs the Saints...I'd buy both Stewart and Williams as RB1s if they played New Orleans every week ). But even as well as Williams did there, it was still just a short stretch, and was inflated by three long scores, which cannot be counted on (as I know you have argued over the years, since TDs are by and large unpredictable). I don't have faith in that coaching staff to be smart enough to do it every week. It's like when the Rams under Mike Martz would go weeks without running the ball enough, he would remember to for a game or two, they'd racked up the rushing yards, and then boom, they were right back to throwing it non-stop (although Faulk still produced week in and week out thanks to being a beast in the passing game).

But anyway, again, I think there are too many variables working against Stewart (or really any Carolina RB right now), and you pretty much have to hope that either a) all of those variables turn around in your favor, or b) you grab a guy like Stewart on your team and he has a great stretch similar to DeAngelo's in December this past year and he helps your team that was good enough to get to the playoffs w/o much help from Stewart.

Oh yeah, Stewart is absolutely a flawed asset. That situation is toxic, and who knows if it'll ever revert back to 2011 levels or remain at 2012 levels going forward? Who knows how the carries are going to be broken out? I'm not arguing for Stewart as a top 12 dynasty RB, here. According to the DLF mocks, Stewart's being drafted as RB23. Looking at the RBs around him, that seems out of whack to me. Darren Sproles is going 2 rounds before Stewart, despite being 4 years older, never having double-digit TDs, and only topping 400 rushing yards once. Yeah, he gets 80 receptions a year, but... two rounds earlier! You've got Lamar Miller going before Stewart. Miller's a 4th round pick in a complete mess of a situation. He was the 15th pick in rookie drafts last year! As I said, I'm not calling for Stewart to be in the top 12, I'm just saying that a ranking in the late teens seems far more reasonable for an ultra-talented 26 year old with a track record of success.

Also, I may be attacking a straw man or tilting at windmills, here, but I think the whole "if Stewart is so talented, why hasn't he seized the job yet?" line of questioning is off track. Of all the questions surrounding Stewart (health, situation, age, talent), talent is the only one that doesn't bother me in the slightest. On talent alone, Stewart would be a slam dunk dynasty RB1.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

SSOG, like ghostguy said, one of the biggest problems with Stewart is his situation. Like I have said before, a) the Carolina coaching staff seemingly has no clue how to utilize their RBs on a consistent basis, and b) Cam Newton is so much of a runner, that he will inevitably take away a lot of yards and scoring opportunities from whatever RB gets the bulk of the carries. It also doesn't help that I think DeAngelo is still better than Stewart; look at how Williams did down the stretch this past season (his numbers inflated, albeit, by that week 17 game vs the Saints...I'd buy both Stewart and Williams as RB1s if they played New Orleans every week ). But even as well as Williams did there, it was still just a short stretch, and was inflated by three long scores, which cannot be counted on (as I know you have argued over the years, since TDs are by and large unpredictable). I don't have faith in that coaching staff to be smart enough to do it every week. It's like when the Rams under Mike Martz would go weeks without running the ball enough, he would remember to for a game or two, they'd racked up the rushing yards, and then boom, they were right back to throwing it non-stop (although Faulk still produced week in and week out thanks to being a beast in the passing game).

But anyway, again, I think there are too many variables working against Stewart (or really any Carolina RB right now), and you pretty much have to hope that either a) all of those variables turn around in your favor, or b) you grab a guy like Stewart on your team and he has a great stretch similar to DeAngelo's in December this past year and he helps your team that was good enough to get to the playoffs w/o much help from Stewart.

Oh yeah, Stewart is absolutely a flawed asset. That situation is toxic, and who knows if it'll ever revert back to 2011 levels or remain at 2012 levels going forward? Who knows how the carries are going to be broken out? I'm not arguing for Stewart as a top 12 dynasty RB, here. According to the DLF mocks, Stewart's being drafted as RB23. Looking at the RBs around him, that seems out of whack to me. Darren Sproles is going 2 rounds before Stewart, despite being 4 years older, never having double-digit TDs, and only topping 400 rushing yards once. Yeah, he gets 80 receptions a year, but... two rounds earlier! You've got Lamar Miller going before Stewart. Miller's a 4th round pick in a complete mess of a situation. He was the 15th pick in rookie drafts last year! As I said, I'm not calling for Stewart to be in the top 12, I'm just saying that a ranking in the late teens seems far more reasonable for an ultra-talented 26 year old with a track record of success.

Also, I may be attacking a straw man or tilting at windmills, here, but I think the whole "if Stewart is so talented, why hasn't he seized the job yet?" line of questioning is off track. Of all the questions surrounding Stewart (health, situation, age, talent), talent is the only one that doesn't bother me in the slightest. On talent alone, Stewart would be a slam dunk dynasty RB1.

your "track record of success" is different than mine. I see talent player, who has 1 decent end of season run and exactly 1 top 12 finish in his career. (FBG scoring) and 1 season with more than 20 catches.

The reasons (excuses) are endless.

Lets just call a spade a spade here. He is what he is, his situation isnt going to change because we wish it to.

 

[Clifford]

It seems like everyone has finally gotten tired of Stewart's act. His trade value and draft position are at an all-time low. He's available for cheaper than ever before. Is now the time to buy or is he destined to be a tease who never lives up to his potential?

Positives

- Has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL. Tied for Trent Richardson behind Michael Turner for the second highest BMI of any notable NFL tailback. Despite his size, runs 4.46 with a 36.5" vertical leap and 10'8" broad jump.

- Up until last year, had been consistently effective when given opportunities. His 4.7 career YPC ranks ahead of Ray Rice, MJD, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, and Arian Foster.

- Should still have some tread on the tire at 26 years old next season with only 818 career carries.

Negatives

- Stuck in a time share with DeAngelo Williams.

- Even if he starts, will lose some goal line carries to Cam Newton.

- Coming off the worst season of his career.

- Has averaged 14.2 games played per season, but has struggled with lower body injuries. Currently recovering from offseason ankle surgery.

My feeling is that Stewart ranks somewhere in the top 10 or maybe even the top 5 among all NFL RBs in overall talent. Lack of opportunity has been the primary culprit in his modest production to date. With DeAngelo Williams slated to turn 30 this year, it seems like only a matter of time until his skills erode. If Stewart can stay healthy, my guess is that he will have a 3-4 year window as a starter.

The obvious problem with acquiring him right now is that he has no immediate path to a starter workload unless Williams is traded or loses a step. That means if you buy Stewart, you could be sitting on him for another year or two before you can finally start him with confidence. I still think he's a good buy since he's a proven commodity who's simply way better than virtually any RB you can trade him for straight up or draft later. I think the irony of his career is that after years of failing to live up to high expectations, he'll only become really productive after the fact that everyone has already lost patience and given up on him.

The date on this post is wrong. Should be April 2009.

 

[Clifford]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Or another 10-15 backs in the league. Aging RB who has had nagging leg injuries his entire career. Why not just make a lowball offer on Bradshaw? Practically the same guy except Bradshaw has actually produced in his career.

 

[Ghost Rider]

SSOG, like ghostguy said, one of the biggest problems with Stewart is his situation. Like I have said before, a) the Carolina coaching staff seemingly has no clue how to utilize their RBs on a consistent basis, and b) Cam Newton is so much of a runner, that he will inevitably take away a lot of yards and scoring opportunities from whatever RB gets the bulk of the carries. It also doesn't help that I think DeAngelo is still better than Stewart; look at how Williams did down the stretch this past season (his numbers inflated, albeit, by that week 17 game vs the Saints...I'd buy both Stewart and Williams as RB1s if they played New Orleans every week ). But even as well as Williams did there, it was still just a short stretch, and was inflated by three long scores, which cannot be counted on (as I know you have argued over the years, since TDs are by and large unpredictable). I don't have faith in that coaching staff to be smart enough to do it every week. It's like when the Rams under Mike Martz would go weeks without running the ball enough, he would remember to for a game or two, they'd racked up the rushing yards, and then boom, they were right back to throwing it non-stop (although Faulk still produced week in and week out thanks to being a beast in the passing game).

But anyway, again, I think there are too many variables working against Stewart (or really any Carolina RB right now), and you pretty much have to hope that either a) all of those variables turn around in your favor, or b) you grab a guy like Stewart on your team and he has a great stretch similar to DeAngelo's in December this past year and he helps your team that was good enough to get to the playoffs w/o much help from Stewart.

Oh yeah, Stewart is absolutely a flawed asset. That situation is toxic, and who knows if it'll ever revert back to 2011 levels or remain at 2012 levels going forward? Who knows how the carries are going to be broken out? I'm not arguing for Stewart as a top 12 dynasty RB, here. According to the DLF mocks, Stewart's being drafted as RB23. Looking at the RBs around him, that seems out of whack to me. Darren Sproles is going 2 rounds before Stewart, despite being 4 years older, never having double-digit TDs, and only topping 400 rushing yards once. Yeah, he gets 80 receptions a year, but... two rounds earlier! You've got Lamar Miller going before Stewart. Miller's a 4th round pick in a complete mess of a situation. He was the 15th pick in rookie drafts last year! As I said, I'm not calling for Stewart to be in the top 12, I'm just saying that a ranking in the late teens seems far more reasonable for an ultra-talented 26 year old with a track record of success.

Also, I may be attacking a straw man or tilting at windmills, here, but I think the whole "if Stewart is so talented, why hasn't he seized the job yet?" line of questioning is off track. Of all the questions surrounding Stewart (health, situation, age, talent), talent is the only one that doesn't bother me in the slightest. On talent alone, Stewart would be a slam dunk dynasty RB1.

Sproles going two rounds earlier than Stewart seems more than reasonable to me, especially when you look at how Sproles has produced since going to New Orleans (including his stats in SD would skew things since he has been used more in NO than he was in SD, so his usage in SD really isn't relevant except from a wear and tear standpoint).

In 29 games played,

-77 yards combined rushing and receiving per game

-161 catches

-17 touchdowns

-7.5 yards per touch

-10.2 touches per game

That is pretty damn good. Sure, he will have the occasional game where he doesn't touch the ball that much, but his upside and big games are great enough to where he is a great pick. In an auction league in 2013, I'd still put Sproles at about a $20 value, while still not going any higher than $10 for Stewart. And I suspect Sproles will go two rounds higher than Stewart is just about every redraft league this summer, significant roster changes, between now and then, on either or both teams notwithstanding. And probably more than two in most, as I suspect Sproles will still be a 4th or 5th round pick, while Stewart goes in around 9-12 (unless DeAngelo is cut and he is named the unquestioned starter).

 

[EBF]

Sproles is also 30 years old this season. Stewart will be 26.

I think Stewart is worth more than guys like Steven Jackson and Sproles who are right at the end of their rope. The difference is that with the latter two you have the security of some immediate production, whereas Stewart's value is a little bit more amorphous. He's more likely to be useless indefinitely, but he also has a vastly superior potential yield if it breaks right for him (3-5 years of potential top 15 numbers vs. 1-3 for the ancient guys).

 

[tdmills]

I think what gets missed most in all of the numbers with Jstew is instincts(football IQ/feel for the game). For a player with his size/speed/athletic ability, I feel he doesn't get the most out of it. You don't have to look far to find a RB that gets more out of his abilities than on the same depth chart, Dwill. I think Jstew doesn't have great vision, he seems to run into defenders downfield because he's unaware of them, not great agility. It's something that can't be accounted for, but I just don't think his instincts are high. Sure he's fast and big, so he can run by or over defenders. But many times I just think he's sloppy and not efficient in using his skills.

 

[Dirk Digler]

All things considered he's buy high... your still buying potential and wIth every year that goes by, the potential diminishes. The pipe dream return on investment erodes further, it is what it is. He isn't getting more potential, he is getting exponentially less with every season and every new injury that goes by. Best case scenario is for him to have a big start or huge stretch of games and to flip/dump him when all the 'told ya so sheep' start screaming from the top of the mountains about how they always knew the messiah was coming, lol..... IMHO, He's become a short term, high risk investment property at this point, not a dynasty cornerstone.

 

[ghostguy123]

I would take Sproles over Stewart easily in a PPR dynasty. If I have a good team, a couple years of seemingly guaranteed good production seems much better than what Stewart brings, which is like 4-5 years of "who the flippin hell knows"???

I will take those two years NOW in 2013 and 2014. If I hang on to Stewart for 5 more years, he might have two good years, but when?

Younger is only better when the guy actually produces. His ceiling is higher of course because he COULD have 4-5 years of Sproles type production, but does anyone actually expect that at this point? If I cam competing and need a RB, Sproles is a very easy choice there.

As for Miller, also a VERY easy choice for me over both Sproles and Stewart.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Sproles is also 30 years old this season. Stewart will be 26.

Irrelevant. Sproles has never been a guy who get a ton of touches, and his style is not conducive to taking a lot of hits, so he doesn't have the wear and tear of a normal 30-year old RB. Plus, he has shown over the years that he is the king of doing more with less. He doesn't need a lot of touches to produce.

 

[ghostguy123]

Sproles is also 30 years old this season. Stewart will be 26.

Irrelevant. Sproles has never been a guy who get a ton of touches, and his style is not conducive to taking a lot of hits, so he doesn't have the wear and tear of a normal 30-year old RB. Plus, he has shown over the years that he is the king of doing more with less. He doesn't need a lot of touches to produce.

It's relevant, but not relevant enough to rank Stewart above Sproles for me.

If Sproles was 26 right now he would be wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy ahead.

 

[Dirk Digler]

Sproles is also 30 years old this season. Stewart will be 26.

Irrelevant. Sproles has never been a guy who get a ton of touches, and his style is not conducive to taking a lot of hits, so he doesn't have the wear and tear of a normal 30-year old RB. Plus, he has shown over the years that he is the king of doing more with less. He doesn't need a lot of touches to produce.

Well said. Sproles easily has 3 years of solid/high end/peak production (ppr) left, perhaps more. Given the wear and tear and all the other circumstances with Stewy, does he have the same? He gonna produce into his year 30 season? Noooooooooo. That doesn't seem realistic.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

But sproles who was hurt last year your predicting an elite season for a 33 year old back, lol

Sproles is also 30 years old this season. Stewart will be 26.

Irrelevant. Sproles has never been a guy who get a ton of touches, and his style is not conducive to taking a lot of hits, so he doesn't have the wear and tear of a normal 30-year old RB. Plus, he has shown over the years that he is the king of doing more with less. He doesn't need a lot of touches to produce.

Well said. Sproles easily has 3 years of solid/high end/peak production (ppr) left, perhaps more. Given the wear and tear and all the other circumstances with Stewy, does he have the same? He gonna produce into his year 30 season? Noooooooooo. That doesn't seem realistic.

But it seems realistic that sproles who was hurt last year will be "solid high end" at 33 .... Lol seems reasonable

 

[Biabreakable]

But sproles who was hurt last year your predicting an elite season for a 33 year old back, lol

Sproles is also 30 years old this season. Stewart will be 26.

Irrelevant. Sproles has never been a guy who get a ton of touches, and his style is not conducive to taking a lot of hits, so he doesn't have the wear and tear of a normal 30-year old RB. Plus, he has shown over the years that he is the king of doing more with less. He doesn't need a lot of touches to produce.

Well said. Sproles easily has 3 years of solid/high end/peak production (ppr) left, perhaps more. Given the wear and tear and all the other circumstances with Stewy, does he have the same? He gonna produce into his year 30 season? Noooooooooo. That doesn't seem realistic.

But it seems realistic that sproles who was hurt last year will be "solid high end" at 33 .... Lol seems reasonable

About as reasonable as PPR hyper inflating the value of a player like Sproles or other players simply because they get a lot of high percentage targets in the passing game. I certainly hope no one here is suggesting that a player who catches a lot of dump off passes is actually any more talented than a player who does not. PPR is a poor reflection of actual ability and performance of a football player.

 

[matttyl]

Sproles is also 30 years old this season. Stewart will be 26.

Irrelevant. Sproles has never been a guy who get a ton of touches, and his style is not conducive to taking a lot of hits, so he doesn't have the wear and tear of a normal 30-year old RB. Plus, he has shown over the years that he is the king of doing more with less. He doesn't need a lot of touches to produce.

Well said. Sproles easily has 3 years of solid/high end/peak production (ppr) left, perhaps more. Given the wear and tear and all the other circumstances with Stewy, does he have the same? He gonna produce into his year 30 season? Noooooooooo. That doesn't seem realistic.

Yeah, I'm not sure you can say "3 years of solid/high end/peak production" about anyone (aside from a few QBs, maybe).

3 years ago would you have said the same about Peyton Manning, Rivers, CJ2K, McFadden, Hillis, Mendy, Bradshaw, Bowe, Lloyd, Jennings, Wallace, D Jax, Vernon Davis, M Lewis, and Chris Cooley?

That said, I'd have the two RBs - Sproles and Stew ranked about the same in dynasty (but I also own Ingram, so that skews my thoughts)

 

[SSOG]

SSOG, like ghostguy said, one of the biggest problems with Stewart is his situation. Like I have said before, a) the Carolina coaching staff seemingly has no clue how to utilize their RBs on a consistent basis, and b) Cam Newton is so much of a runner, that he will inevitably take away a lot of yards and scoring opportunities from whatever RB gets the bulk of the carries. It also doesn't help that I think DeAngelo is still better than Stewart; look at how Williams did down the stretch this past season (his numbers inflated, albeit, by that week 17 game vs the Saints...I'd buy both Stewart and Williams as RB1s if they played New Orleans every week ). But even as well as Williams did there, it was still just a short stretch, and was inflated by three long scores, which cannot be counted on (as I know you have argued over the years, since TDs are by and large unpredictable). I don't have faith in that coaching staff to be smart enough to do it every week. It's like when the Rams under Mike Martz would go weeks without running the ball enough, he would remember to for a game or two, they'd racked up the rushing yards, and then boom, they were right back to throwing it non-stop (although Faulk still produced week in and week out thanks to being a beast in the passing game).

But anyway, again, I think there are too many variables working against Stewart (or really any Carolina RB right now), and you pretty much have to hope that either a) all of those variables turn around in your favor, or b) you grab a guy like Stewart on your team and he has a great stretch similar to DeAngelo's in December this past year and he helps your team that was good enough to get to the playoffs w/o much help from Stewart.

Oh yeah, Stewart is absolutely a flawed asset. That situation is toxic, and who knows if it'll ever revert back to 2011 levels or remain at 2012 levels going forward? Who knows how the carries are going to be broken out? I'm not arguing for Stewart as a top 12 dynasty RB, here. According to the DLF mocks, Stewart's being drafted as RB23. Looking at the RBs around him, that seems out of whack to me. Darren Sproles is going 2 rounds before Stewart, despite being 4 years older, never having double-digit TDs, and only topping 400 rushing yards once. Yeah, he gets 80 receptions a year, but... two rounds earlier! You've got Lamar Miller going before Stewart. Miller's a 4th round pick in a complete mess of a situation. He was the 15th pick in rookie drafts last year! As I said, I'm not calling for Stewart to be in the top 12, I'm just saying that a ranking in the late teens seems far more reasonable for an ultra-talented 26 year old with a track record of success.

Also, I may be attacking a straw man or tilting at windmills, here, but I think the whole "if Stewart is so talented, why hasn't he seized the job yet?" line of questioning is off track. Of all the questions surrounding Stewart (health, situation, age, talent), talent is the only one that doesn't bother me in the slightest. On talent alone, Stewart would be a slam dunk dynasty RB1.

your "track record of success" is different than mine. I see talent player, who has 1 decent end of season run and exactly 1 top 12 finish in his career. (FBG scoring) and 1 season with more than 20 catches.

The reasons (excuses) are endless.

Lets just call a spade a spade here. He is what he is, his situation isnt going to change because we wish it to.

Context is important. Compared to Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson or Ray Rice, Stewart does not have a "track record of success". Compared to the guys being drafted around him, though? Absolutely, Stewart has a track record of success. In addition to his top 12 finish, he was RB18 in PPR leagues as recently as 2011. 4.7 career YPC.

You can say the situation isn't going to change at this point, but isn't that what situations do? They change. His situation changed dramatically from 2011 to 2012. Why can't it change again? If Carolina's situation was the same as it was in 2011, Stewart would be in an enviable position.

Sproles is also 30 years old this season. Stewart will be 26.

Irrelevant. Sproles has never been a guy who get a ton of touches, and his style is not conducive to taking a lot of hits, so he doesn't have the wear and tear of a normal 30-year old RB. Plus, he has shown over the years that he is the king of doing more with less. He doesn't need a lot of touches to produce.

It's not irrelevant if you believe that workload is essentially useless in predicting decline, while age is the opposite. I don't care how light his workload has been to this point, I care about the fact that he's already going to be on the wrong side of 30 by the time this season kicks off. And it's not just that he's getting drafted ahead of Stewart, it's that he's going TWO ROUNDS ahead of Stewart. That's an awfully large gap to bridge.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I disagree. I will say it for the 195th time : Stewart needs too many things to turn around and go his way for him to even get the touches and goal line carries necessary to be a very good FF RB in '13, and that is assuming he can stay healthy; we know Sproles is gonna get touches when he is healthy, plain and simple. Sure, Stewart is more likely to be a workhouse back, but even though he is younger than Sproles, he has already had more injuries than him, so the odds are stacked against him. Sproles should go 2-4 rounds ahead of Stewart simply because you know he is gonna produce when he is playing and healthy; the same cannot be said for Stewart (who could be healthy and either not be the starting RB still or not be used right again by the clueless Carolina coaching staff). Sproles is on a team that knows exactly how to use him; Stewart is not. That is certainly worthy several rounds when it comes to drafting, IMO.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I disagree. I will say it for the 195th time : Stewart needs too many things to turn around and go his way for him to even get the touches and goal line carries necessary to be a very good FF RB in '13, and that is assuming he can stay healthy; we know Sproles is gonna get touches when he is healthy, plain and simple. Sure, Stewart is more likely to be a workhouse back, but even though he is younger than Sproles, he has already had more injuries than him, so the odds are stacked against him. Sproles should go 2-4 rounds ahead of Stewart simply because you know he is gonna produce when he is playing and healthy; the same cannot be said for Stewart (who could be healthy and either not be the starting RB still or not be used right again by the clueless Carolina coaching staff). Sproles is on a team that knows exactly how to use him; Stewart is not. That is certainly worthy several rounds when it comes to drafting, IMO.

Your mentality seems to be more redraft and less dynasty. If we are only talking about next season then you are absolutely right...but we are not. Stewart is 26.