[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low? (2 Viewers)

[ghostguy123]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

well except for..... ya know actual on the field production, sure

Why are you trolling his least defensible position and ignoring the bulk of the topic? Of course he bit off too much with the Peterson comment, especially in the SP where AP is beyond reproach. But the topic here is whether Stewart is a buy low, not AP vs. JStew.

This all depends what is meant by "buy low".

I don't think spending lets say...............pick 7 in this year's draft...............would be considered buying low. I would say given his disappointing performance to this point in his career, not to mention his current situation, that maybe spending something like pick 13 or later would be considered buying/selling low at this point.

So before we decide if he is a "buy low", maybe we should figure out exactly what price we are talking about first.

I can tell you this though, anyone who owns Stewart right now certainly isn't selling him for pick 13.

So in general without knowing the price, I would say Stewart is NOT a buy low, because I don't think Stewart owners will be selling low.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

Stewart stacks up pretty well with Peterson across the board, especially when you factor in that he's a lot bigger.

well except for..... ya know actual on the field production, sure

Why are you trolling his least defensible position and ignoring the bulk of the topic? Of course he bit off too much with the Peterson comment, especially in the SP where AP is beyond reproach. But the topic here is whether Stewart is a buy low, not AP vs. JStew.

I dont think he is buy low, IF i owned him, I'd sell him, even for a first in this years awful draft.

People that have had him this long,wont move him anyway, so whats the point if even discussing it? Let him rot on those guys bench I say.

 

[Sabertooth]

I have him in one league. I am not looking to acquire him in any more leagues. If Stewart had the talent, he'd rise to the top. He simply hasn't. He's had plenty of time in the league. He might have a breakout season at some point, but its anyone's guess when that will be. I'm not really interested in buying him or selling him to be honest.

He's better than Shonn Greene or James Starks. I'll give him that much. Nowhere near as good as Ray Rice or ADP though.

 

[ghostguy123]

I actually did trade him in a league this year. Straight up for Josh Gordon.

I don't think I sold low, or got a good deal. I just swapped him for another unproven talented guy, but younger so maybe more longterm upside, who knows.

 

[tdmills]

It's somewhat annoying that EBF always starts threads/hypes up players that he owns. Then he cites "buy low", when in fact that isn't the price that he paid.

Example:

Thomas Tyner thread, paid more than a "buy low" for a kid coming out of HS.

JStew thread, what is the buy low price?

ETA:

Jstew rushing stats

Years 1 and 2= 405 carries for 1,969 yards 4.86 20 TDs

Years 3,4,5= 413 carries for 1,867 yards 4.52 7 TD

 

[tdmills]

I have him in one league. I am not looking to acquire him in any more leagues. If Stewart had the talent, he'd rise to the top. He simply hasn't. He's had plenty of time in the league. He might have a breakout season at some point, but its anyone's guess when that will be. I'm not really interested in buying him or selling him to be honest.

He's better than Shonn Greene or James Starks. I'll give him that much. Nowhere near as good as Ray Rice or ADP though.

Being a good athlete, doesn't always equal having a good NFL/FF career.

 

[squistion]

It's somewhat annoying that EBF always starts threads/hypes up players that he owns. Then he cites "buy low", when in fact that isn't the price that he paid.

Example:

Thomas Tyner thread, paid more than a "buy low" for a kid coming out of HS.

JStew thread, what is the buy low price?

ETA:

Jstew rushing stats

Years 1 and 2= 405 carries for 1,969 yards 4.86 20 TDs

Years 3,4,5= 413 carries for 1,867 yards 4.52 7 TD

Not to mention it is also usually players he has been pimping on this forum for ages in other threads (Jon Baldwin is a example that comes to mind).

IMO, It seems to be all about some sort of self promotion with EBF, perhaps so he can gleefully bump a thread like this down the line and say "See, I was right! I told you so!" and add it to his "Best of Funk" signature line. I hope I am wrong, but It doesn't seem to me that the motivation is to really to help people find an undervalued player, but rather, just laying the groundwork to document his long standing opinion if/when the player lives up to his hype.

 

[SSOG]

The problem with the question of whether Stewart is undervalued is that it's far less relevant than the question of whether Stewart is poorly sorted. The average owner might undervalue Stewart, but the average owner doesn't own Stewart- at this point, after years of hype and "buy low" moments, odds are whoever owns Stewart is the guy in the league who is highest on Stewart. Odds are that guy is committed to holding at this point, and won't sell him for anywhere near consensus value. So saying Stewart is a good "buy low" is useful for startups, or maybe for very young leagues (say, second season) where owners haven't had as much opportunity to sort, but it's pretty meaningless in established leagues. Odds are very low that Stewart is a good "buy low" in any league 3 years old or older.

It seems like everyone has finally gotten tired of Stewart's act. His trade value and draft position are at an all-time low. He's available for cheaper than ever before. Is now the time to buy or is he destined to be a tease who never lives up to his potential?

You have been telling everyone in this forum to buy him for the last three years (maybe longer). Hard to get excited about you hyping him again as a possible bargain acquisition, since you have never viewed him as anything but that. In your book he has always been undervalued and a player to buy Now. Is there even one time that you have not recommended him as an acquisition target? If so, I would really like to see your quote on that and a link to the thread.

This is confusing process and outcome. It'd be like saying "People have told me four times now that heads was a good bet, and the coin came up tails four times, so screw that- I'm never betting heads again". To this point in his career, Stewart has had three paths to a starting job. The first was beating out DeAngelo as a rookie. The second was when DeAngelo's contract was up. The third was when Stewart's contract was up. Before each of those points, Stewart fans valued him highly because there was a good chance that he'd be a featured back soon. All of those flips wound up coming up tails (partly due to unforeseen circumstances- if the old CBA didn't expire, Richardson never would have shed so much salary, and if the new CBA didn't contain a salary floor, he never would have offered DeAngelo such a ludicrous contract or had enough money left over to give one to Stewart, too). This does not mean that all future flips are guaranteed to come up tails, too. When Stewart fans say there's a good chance he gets his own gig in the next couple of years, pointing out that they've been wrong about it before doesn't make it any less true. By the same token, if a guy said Marvin Harrison was old and washed up at 34, whether or not he made the same prediction at 32 and 33 has no impact on his chances of being right (although I get what you're saying- there's a strong chance he has a prejudice against Harrison, old WRs, or both, which makes him easy to discount because that's just his bias talking. Not any more likely to be wrong, but certainly easier to discount). Also, for what it's worth, people who think Stewart has been overvalued have a spotty track record so far. In 5 years in the league, Stewart has underperformed his ADP twice, overperformed his ADP twice, and finished right at his ADP once. It's true that in dynasty, his cost has exceeded his returns to date... but it's not like he hasn't provided any returns at all. I have a championship trophy on my mantle because of his absurd end-of-season run in 2009, which in my mind justifies any price I may have paid to acquire him. And the book still isn't closed on him, yet. Is he a good buy-low? Well, I have him valued in the low teens, so I suppose it depends on the context. It helps that the current RB crop is so atrocious.

 

[FF Ninja]

Yes, it's true that dynasty owners probably aren't selling him low. This would be a better discussion if it was redraft focused. If his ADP is RB24, I consider that a strong buy low situation. He will almost certainly give you RB24 performance on a a ppg basis and has the potential to perform at a much higher rate.

 

[SSOG]

It's somewhat annoying that EBF always starts threads/hypes up players that he owns. Then he cites "buy low", when in fact that isn't the price that he paid. Example:Thomas Tyner thread, paid more than a "buy low" for a kid coming out of HS.JStew thread, what is the buy low price? ETA:Jstew rushing statsYears 1 and 2= 405 carries for 1,969 yards 4.86 20 TDsYears 3,4,5= 413 carries for 1,867 yards 4.52 7 TD

Not to mention it is also usually players he has been pimping on this forum for ages in other threads (Jon Baldwin is a example that comes to mind). IMO, It seems to be all about some sort of self promotion with EBF, perhaps so he can gleefully bump a thread like this down the line and say "See, I was right! I told you so!" and add it to his "Best of Funk" signature line. I hope I am wrong, but It doesn't seem to me that the motivation is to really to help people find an undervalued player, but rather, just laying the groundwork to document his long standing opinion if/when the player lives up to his hype.

I talked a year or two ago about the concept of "inertia" in rankings. Once a guy is in place, how much force does it take to move him up or down? Some owners have very little inertia- if a player has a single good game, he'll shoot up the board and they'll say "if you wait for him to prove it, it'll already be too late to buy". Other owners have a ton of inertia, and it takes a huge amount of contrary evidence to get them to move- think of the guys who were unwilling to spend a first rounder on Arian Foster after his #1 finish. Honestly, I use "inertia" as a description, not a judgment. It's not like there's a "right amount" of inertia. For guys like Demaryius Thomas, Andre Johnson, or Michael Crabtree, I hope you were very, very inert (and to EBF's credit, he was). For a guys like Charles Rodgers, Roy Williams, or Big Mike Williams, the less inert you were, the better off you'd be. High inertia would prevent someone from buying high on Brandon Lloyd or Steve Slaton. Low inertia would allow someone to buy low on Jamaal Charles or Maurice Jones-Drew. It's hard to find the perfect value of inertia, and everyone strikes their own balance, decides for themselves how inert to be and when to make exceptions. EBF is a very inert owner. This is not an insult, it is a description. There is nothing nefarious at work- he's not just throwing things at a wall to see what sticks or constantly trying to nail a hero call, he's just inert. It's understandable- if you grind 10 hours of tape on a guy, it'll take a lot more than a handful of games to change your mind, and even several seasons don't totally outweigh what you originally saw. For me, since I don't watch all that tape, it's pretty easy to change my mind- all of my opinions on players start very weak and solidify over time, as opposed to EBF, whose opinions are crystallized before the prospect ever takes an NFL snap. Again, though, I think questioning his integrity is way off base. This is a question of style and philosophy, not ego and grandstanding.

 

[squistion]

It's somewhat annoying that EBF always starts threads/hypes up players that he owns. Then he cites "buy low", when in fact that isn't the price that he paid. Example:Thomas Tyner thread, paid more than a "buy low" for a kid coming out of HS.JStew thread, what is the buy low price? ETA:Jstew rushing statsYears 1 and 2= 405 carries for 1,969 yards 4.86 20 TDsYears 3,4,5= 413 carries for 1,867 yards 4.52 7 TD

Not to mention it is also usually players he has been pimping on this forum for ages in other threads (Jon Baldwin is a example that comes to mind). IMO, It seems to be all about some sort of self promotion with EBF, perhaps so he can gleefully bump a thread like this down the line and say "See, I was right! I told you so!" and add it to his "Best of Funk" signature line. I hope I am wrong, but It doesn't seem to me that the motivation is to really to help people find an undervalued player, but rather, just laying the groundwork to document his long standing opinion if/when the player lives up to his hype.

I talked a year or two ago about the concept of "inertia" in rankings. Once a guy is in place, how much force does it take to move him up or down? Some owners have very little inertia- if a player has a single good game, he'll shoot up the board and they'll say "if you wait for him to prove it, it'll already be too late to buy". Other owners have a ton of inertia, and it takes a huge amount of contrary evidence to get them to move- think of the guys who were unwilling to spend a first rounder on Arian Foster after his #1 finish. Honestly, I use "inertia" as a description, not a judgment. It's not like there's a "right amount" of inertia. For guys like Demaryius Thomas, Andre Johnson, or Michael Crabtree, I hope you were very, very inert (and to EBF's credit, he was). For a guys like Charles Rodgers, Roy Williams, or Big Mike Williams, the less inert you were, the better off you'd be. High inertia would prevent someone from buying high on Brandon Lloyd or Steve Slaton. Low inertia would allow someone to buy low on Jamaal Charles or Maurice Jones-Drew. It's hard to find the perfect value of inertia, and everyone strikes their own balance, decides for themselves how inert to be and when to make exceptions.EBF is a very inert owner. This is not an insult, it is a description. There is nothing nefarious at work- he's not just throwing things at a wall to see what sticks or constantly trying to nail a hero call, he's just inert. It's understandable- if you grind 10 hours of tape on a guy, it'll take a lot more than a handful of games to change your mind, and even several seasons don't totally outweigh what you originally saw. For me, since I don't watch all that tape, it's pretty easy to change my mind- all of my opinions on players start very weak and solidify over time, as opposed to EBF, whose opinions are crystallized before the prospect ever takes an NFL snap. Again, though, I think questioning his integrity is way off base. This is a question of style and philosophy, not ego and grandstanding.

I disagree.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I own Stewart, so I'd love for him to be as great as we all think he could be, but I've begun to think that Stewart's ability is overrated. I've brought this up before, but Stewart has not been a standout compared to his peers on Carolina. For all his talent, in five years Stewart has never outright lead his own team in YPC. He finished tied with DeAngelo one year, and that's it. Even in the year where DeAngelo was injured and out of the picture Stewart was out-done by Mike Goodson on a per carry basis.

That's what worries me with Stewart. Sure, he put up great stats in the past, but he did it during a time when Carolina had a generational running system that made any RB they put back there into a top 5 guy. Stewart has pretty much risen and fallen alongside that rushing attack.

When Carolina had a great running system Stewart was great...just like the other Carolina RBs.

When Carolina had a mediocre running system Stewart was mediocre...just like the other Carolina RBs

When Carolina had a below par running system Stewart was below par...just like the other Carolina RBs

I understand that DeAngelo is also likely an elite back so the comparison is somewhat unfair, but he has had his chance against Mike Goodson as well as a now older and less explosive DeAngelo (who is clearly not what he once was) and failed to stand out from either of those as well. He has all the measurables but if he were as great as we all want him to be you'd think he would have stood out compared to his peers at some point in five years.

Further, it's not like we can just blame this on situation any more. Carolina handed him the keys last year and he barely even got them into the ignition. He finally had a chance to prove that he was a great talent and he performed poorly when he wasn't running behind the decade's best O-line on fresh legs, then he got hurt which only further muddies the idea that there are health concerns with him as a feature back (worse than in our minds, in the coaches minds).

I'll be holding him as his potential far outweighs anything I could get back for him, but I'm past the point of "it's so unfair, this guy would win me my league if that idiot coach would just give him the ball!". If Stewart never amounts to anything there's as much chance that it's his fault as it is that it's his mean, evil coaches that just want to toy with FF owners. He's no longer a guy that I hold because he'd be an instant top 5 guy if he gets the job. He's now a guy that could be a top 5 guy or could be completely ordinary if he ever gets the job.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Yes, it's true that dynasty owners probably aren't selling him low. This would be a better discussion if it was redraft focused. If his ADP is RB24, I consider that a strong buy low situation. He will almost certainly give you RB24 performance on a a ppg basis and has the potential to perform at a much higher rate.

Personally I don't think he's even worth discussing in a redraft context. And no way is he close to undervalued at RB24 for redraft purposes. He was RB37 in PPG last year, and what has changed? He's still mired in a 4 way RBBC (including Cam). His value in 2014 and beyond is somewhat in doubt. Unless DeAngelo or Cam suffer a major injury, his value is set in stone for 2013. And it's low.

 

[Ernol]

It's somewhat annoying that EBF always starts threads/hypes up players that he owns. Then he cites "buy low", when in fact that isn't the price that he paid.

Example:

Thomas Tyner thread, paid more than a "buy low" for a kid coming out of HS.

JStew thread, what is the buy low price?

ETA:

Jstew rushing stats

Years 1 and 2= 405 carries for 1,969 yards 4.86 20 TDs

Years 3,4,5= 413 carries for 1,867 yards 4.52 7 TD

Not to mention it is also usually players he has been pimping on this forum for ages in other threads (Jon Baldwin is a example that comes to mind).

IMO, It seems to be all about some sort of self promotion with EBF, perhaps so he can gleefully bump a thread like this down the line and say "See, I was right! I told you so!" and add it to his "Best of Funk" signature line. I hope I am wrong, but It doesn't seem to me that the motivation is to really to help people find an undervalued player, but rather, just laying the groundwork to document his long standing opinion if/when the player lives up to his hype.

Too much personal EBF bashing going on imo.

The fact that he owns or acquired a player is an indicator of his actual belief in his stated opinion. Would you rather that posters write “buy” articles on guys they don’t actually own or acquire? It is not as if one day he is praising a guy that he owns and then the next he is downgrading the value of the same guy that he has subsequently traded away.

The guy has an opinion, he shares it and does a pretty good job of supporting it imo. Agree or disagree, share and support your opinion on the topic, discuss, then move on. This resorting to personal bashing is what is getting tiresome.

 

[SSOG]

I own Stewart, so I'd love for him to be as great as we all think he could be, but I've begun to think that Stewart's ability is overrated. I've brought this up before, but Stewart has not been a standout compared to his peers on Carolina. For all his talent, in five years Stewart has never outright lead his own team in YPC. He finished tied with DeAngelo one year, and that's it. Even in the year where DeAngelo was injured and out of the picture Stewart was out-done by Mike Goodson on a per carry basis. That's what worries me with Stewart. Sure, he put up great stats in the past, but he did it during a time when Carolina had a generational running system that made any RB they put back there into a top 5 guy. Stewart has pretty much risen and fallen alongside that rushing attack. When Carolina had a great running system Stewart was great...just like the other Carolina RBs.When Carolina had a mediocre running system Stewart was mediocre...just like the other Carolina RBsWhen Carolina had a below par running system Stewart was below par...just like the other Carolina RBs I understand that DeAngelo is also likely an elite back so the comparison is somewhat unfair, but he has had his chance against Mike Goodson as well as a now older and less explosive DeAngelo (who is clearly not what he once was) and failed to stand out from either of those as well. He has all the measurables but if he were as great as we all want him to be you'd think he would have stood out compared to his peers at some point in five years. Further, it's not like we can just blame this on situation any more. Carolina handed him the keys last year and he barely even got them into the ignition. He finally had a chance to prove that he was a great talent and he performed poorly when he wasn't running behind the decade's best O-line on fresh legs, then he got hurt which only further muddies the idea that there are health concerns with him as a feature back (worse than in our minds, in the coaches minds). I'll be holding him as his potential far outweighs anything I could get back for him, but I'm past the point of "it's so unfair, this guy would win me my league if that idiot coach would just give him the ball!". If Stewart never amounts to anything there's as much chance that it's his fault as it is that it's his mean, evil coaches that just want to toy with FF owners. He's no longer a guy that I hold because he'd be an instant top 5 guy if he gets the job. He's now a guy that could be a top 5 guy or could be completely ordinary if he ever gets the job.

PFF loves him. He might not have the best ypc, but he's pretty consistently been the top graded RB on the team. Prior to last year, they ran an "elusiveness score" retrospective and Jon Stewart was the best back in the league at evading or breaking tackles since they started grading. Last year, Stewart was pants... but prior to that, he was legitimately great. Plus he has the most wicked stiff arm in the entire league. Absolutely filthy. It just remains to be seen whether last year was a harbinger of things to come, or the lingering effects of his preseason injury. I still like him towards the back half of the rb2s because no one there can even come close to catching a whiff of Stewart's upside. He's the only guy around once 18 RBs off the board with the potential to single-handedly carry teams to titles, like he did in 2009. At some point, his (really high) downside becomes secondary to his (really high) upside.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Much of the problem with JStew is in regards to situation as opposed to talent. Look at Larry Fitzgerald--a physical beast who is overloaded with talent--and he was basically a WR3 with upside last year--because of a bad quarterback situation. I think that Stewart has legit talent--but he has a very murky fantasy situation. He has Deangelo Williams, Tolbert, and Cam Newton to deal with. If somebody "buys" on Stewart--they are not banking on talent alone--but they are betting that something happens to his situation (a Deangelo, Cam injury..etc.). This is the x-factor--because how do you quantify the odds of something happening to make his situation better? I don't own Jstew--and I wouldn't go out of my way to try to acquire him. However, I actually think that if I were a Cam Newton, or Deangelo owner-- I probably would try to own him. This would be a great insurance policy/handcuff and would merit paying a bit more for him.

 

[Tau837]

His weight per height ratio is tied with Trent Richardson for second highest among all NFL runners behind Michael Turner. He's a BIG back. Which makes his speed and explosive leaping ability all the more impressive. 4.46 in the 40. 36.5" vertical. 10'8" broad jump. Those would be good numbers for any RB, but they're downright amazing for someone who's carrying 235 pounds on a 5'10.2" frame. Peterson did 4.40/38.5"/10'7" on a much taller, leaner frame.

I have a few issues with this analysis.1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.2. At this point in their careers, I don't think combine numbers matter. For example, Stewart has regularly struggled with lower body injuries. I doubt he has been consistently running 4.46 on the field in his NFL career.3. Comparing their YPC without addressing the disparity in workload is disingenuous.

 

[Tau837]

You are hyping a myth of your own creation if you think Stewart in any way plays bigger than Peterson.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I own Stewart, so I'd love for him to be as great as we all think he could be, but I've begun to think that Stewart's ability is overrated. I've brought this up before, but Stewart has not been a standout compared to his peers on Carolina. For all his talent, in five years Stewart has never outright lead his own team in YPC. He finished tied with DeAngelo one year, and that's it. Even in the year where DeAngelo was injured and out of the picture Stewart was out-done by Mike Goodson on a per carry basis. That's what worries me with Stewart. Sure, he put up great stats in the past, but he did it during a time when Carolina had a generational running system that made any RB they put back there into a top 5 guy. Stewart has pretty much risen and fallen alongside that rushing attack. When Carolina had a great running system Stewart was great...just like the other Carolina RBs.When Carolina had a mediocre running system Stewart was mediocre...just like the other Carolina RBsWhen Carolina had a below par running system Stewart was below par...just like the other Carolina RBs I understand that DeAngelo is also likely an elite back so the comparison is somewhat unfair, but he has had his chance against Mike Goodson as well as a now older and less explosive DeAngelo (who is clearly not what he once was) and failed to stand out from either of those as well. He has all the measurables but if he were as great as we all want him to be you'd think he would have stood out compared to his peers at some point in five years. Further, it's not like we can just blame this on situation any more. Carolina handed him the keys last year and he barely even got them into the ignition. He finally had a chance to prove that he was a great talent and he performed poorly when he wasn't running behind the decade's best O-line on fresh legs, then he got hurt which only further muddies the idea that there are health concerns with him as a feature back (worse than in our minds, in the coaches minds). I'll be holding him as his potential far outweighs anything I could get back for him, but I'm past the point of "it's so unfair, this guy would win me my league if that idiot coach would just give him the ball!". If Stewart never amounts to anything there's as much chance that it's his fault as it is that it's his mean, evil coaches that just want to toy with FF owners. He's no longer a guy that I hold because he'd be an instant top 5 guy if he gets the job. He's now a guy that could be a top 5 guy or could be completely ordinary if he ever gets the job.

PFF loves him. He might not have the best ypc, but he's pretty consistently been the top graded RB on the team. Prior to last year, they ran an "elusiveness score" retrospective and Jon Stewart was the best back in the league at evading or breaking tackles since they started grading. Last year, Stewart was pants... but prior to that, he was legitimately great. Plus he has the most wicked stiff arm in the entire league. Absolutely filthy. It just remains to be seen whether last year was a harbinger of things to come, or the lingering effects of his preseason injury. I still like him towards the back half of the rb2s because no one there can even come close to catching a whiff of Stewart's upside. He's the only guy around once 18 RBs off the board with the potential to single-handedly carry teams to titles, like he did in 2009. At some point, his (really high) downside becomes secondary to his (really high) upside.

Single-handledly carried teams to titles in '09? Okay, let's be serious. He had a great week 15 and 16 (109-1 and 206-1), but down the stretch, in three of the four weeks prior to that, he ran for 43, 35 and 29 yards, not scoring in those games either. That is single-handledly carrying a team to a title? In fact, despite his 315 yards those two fantasy playoff weeks, he still only ran for 1,133 yards that season, with 125 of them coming in the meaningless (for FF owners) week 17 game, so basically, he ran for 693 yards in the 13 games prior to the two prime FF playoff weeks. That is a whopping 53 yards per week. That ain't single-handledly carrying teams to titles, unless you really think having a monster week 16 really constitutes carrying a team single-handledly to a title. And really, if the rest of your team didn't do well, you would have lost, so saying Stewart did it all is disingenuous and comes more across as a Stewart dynasty owner trying to cling to the belief that he is better than he really is.

And the reason I picked this point out is to demonstrate how deluded Stewart owners have become in regards to this guy. Yes, he has some great games in 2009, but if he single-handledly carried your particular team to a title, then you must have played a dog of a team in the week 16 championship.

 

[EBF]

1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.

2. At this point in their careers, I don't think combine numbers matter. For example, Stewart has regularly struggled with lower body injuries. I doubt he has been consistently running 4.46 on the field in his NFL career.

3. Comparing their YPC without addressing the disparity in workload is disingenuous.

1. You can laugh at it, but it's still accurate. In order to match Stewart's weight/height ratio, Peterson would have to weigh 257 pounds at his height.

2. Peterson is older with more carries and a more checkered injury history. Stewart always looked great until last season. That raises a legitimate question mark: was his 2012 a fluke down year or a sign of things to come? I think he's probably young enough to bounce back fine. We'll see though.

3. I wouldn't say it's disingenuous. It's the only thing we have to go by. I agree that workload plays a role in YPC. For example, Bernard Pierce and Daryl Richardson had great YPC averages on modest workloads. That's not as impressive to me as what Doug Martin did on a bigger workload even though his YPC was lower. In general, I think it's a little harder to be dominant in full time duty than as a change of pace back. What's interesting about Stewart is that the best YPC season of his career also coincided with the biggest workload (221 carries for 1133 yards). Scouts talk about backs who get better as the game goes on, and maybe he is (was) one of those guys.

At any rate, the whole point of talking about the YPC is to demonstrate that he has actually been a very effective player overall. I tend to put a little more stock in efficiency stats than the average FF owner, which is why I've been higher than most on a guy like Russell Wilson and down on a guy like Matt Staffford. I think FF owners are too quick to make the assumption that scoring a lot of FF points = playing well in real life. And that not scoring a lot of FF points = playing poorly. Stewart has not scored a lot of FF points for reasons that are mainly beyond his control, but if people want to argue that he hasn't been a good back then I don't think there's much in that.

The more concerning thing for me is his 2012 struggles and ankle surgery. If he loses a step, he might be finished. On the other hand, if he comes back at 100% then he could easily have 3-4 top 15 seasons left in the tank before he calls it a career.

 

[tdmills]

1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.

2. At this point in their careers, I don't think combine numbers matter. For example, Stewart has regularly struggled with lower body injuries. I doubt he has been consistently running 4.46 on the field in his NFL career.

3. Comparing their YPC without addressing the disparity in workload is disingenuous.

1. You can laugh at it, but it's still accurate.

2. Peterson is older with more carries and a more checkered injury history. Stewart always looked great until last season. That raises a legitimate question mark: was his 2012 a fluke down year or a sign of things to come? I think he's probably young enough to bounce back fine. We'll see though.

3. I wouldn't say it's disingenuous. It's the only thing we have to go by. I agree that workload plays a role in YPC. For example, Bernard Pierce and Daryl Richardson had great YPC averages on modest workloads. That's not as impressive to me as what Doug Martin did on a bigger workload even though his YPC was lower. In general, I think it's a little harder to be dominant in full time duty than as a change of pace back. What's interesting about Stewart is that the best YPC season of his career also coincided with the biggest workload (221 carries for 1133 yards). Scouts talk about backs who get better as the game goes on, and maybe he is (was) one of those guys.

At any rate, the whole point of talking about the YPC is to demonstrate that he has actually been a very effective player overall. I tend to put a little more stock in efficiency stats than the average FF owner, which is why I've been higher than most on a guy like Russell Wilson and down on a guy like Matt Staffford. I think FF owners are too quick to make the assumption that scoring a lot of FF points = playing well in real life. And that not scoring a lot of FF points = playing poorly. Stewart has not scored a lot of FF points for reasons that are mainly beyond his control, but if people want to argue that he hasn't been a good back then I don't think there's much in that.

The more concerning thing for me is his 2012 struggles and ankle surgery. If he loses a step, he might be finished. On the other hand, if he comes back at 100% then he could easily have 3-4 top 15 seasons left in the tank before he calls it a career.

So high that he wasn't in your top 24 rookies post NFL Draft last year?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=641004&hl=dynasty

 

[EBF]

1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.

2. At this point in their careers, I don't think combine numbers matter. For example, Stewart has regularly struggled with lower body injuries. I doubt he has been consistently running 4.46 on the field in his NFL career.

3. Comparing their YPC without addressing the disparity in workload is disingenuous.

1. You can laugh at it, but it's still accurate.

2. Peterson is older with more carries and a more checkered injury history. Stewart always looked great until last season. That raises a legitimate question mark: was his 2012 a fluke down year or a sign of things to come? I think he's probably young enough to bounce back fine. We'll see though.

3. I wouldn't say it's disingenuous. It's the only thing we have to go by. I agree that workload plays a role in YPC. For example, Bernard Pierce and Daryl Richardson had great YPC averages on modest workloads. That's not as impressive to me as what Doug Martin did on a bigger workload even though his YPC was lower. In general, I think it's a little harder to be dominant in full time duty than as a change of pace back. What's interesting about Stewart is that the best YPC season of his career also coincided with the biggest workload (221 carries for 1133 yards). Scouts talk about backs who get better as the game goes on, and maybe he is (was) one of those guys.

At any rate, the whole point of talking about the YPC is to demonstrate that he has actually been a very effective player overall. I tend to put a little more stock in efficiency stats than the average FF owner, which is why I've been higher than most on a guy like Russell Wilson and down on a guy like Matt Staffford. I think FF owners are too quick to make the assumption that scoring a lot of FF points = playing well in real life. And that not scoring a lot of FF points = playing poorly. Stewart has not scored a lot of FF points for reasons that are mainly beyond his control, but if people want to argue that he hasn't been a good back then I don't think there's much in that.

The more concerning thing for me is his 2012 struggles and ankle surgery. If he loses a step, he might be finished. On the other hand, if he comes back at 100% then he could easily have 3-4 top 15 seasons left in the tank before he calls it a career.

So high that he wasn't in your top 24 rookies post NFL Draft last year?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=641004&hl=dynasty

I didn't mean to imply that I've been a fan since day one. I missed the boat on him last year, but became a fan during/after his rookie season. I've bought him in one league and tried in others. I have him rated higher than most at this point.

 

[SSOG]

Single-handledly carried teams to titles in '09? Okay, let's be serious. He had a great week 15 and 16 (109-1 and 206-1), but down the stretch, in three of the four weeks prior to that, he ran for 43, 35 and 29 yards, not scoring in those games either. That is single-handledly carrying a team to a title? In fact, despite his 315 yards those two fantasy playoff weeks, he still only ran for 1,133 yards that season, with 125 of them coming in the meaningless (for FF owners) week 17 game, so basically, he ran for 693 yards in the 13 games prior to the two prime FF playoff weeks. That is a whopping 53 yards per week. That ain't single-handledly carrying teams to titles, unless you really think having a monster week 16 really constitutes carrying a team single-handledly to a title. And really, if the rest of your team didn't do well, you would have lost, so saying Stewart did it all is disingenuous and comes more across as a Stewart dynasty owner trying to cling to the belief that he is better than he really is. And the reason I picked this point out is to demonstrate how deluded Stewart owners have become in regards to this guy. Yes, he has some great games in 2009, but if he single-handledly carried your particular team to a title, then you must have played a dog of a team in the week 16 championship.

He was the #5 fantasy RB over the last half of the season, the #3 fantasy back in week 15, and the #1 fantasy back in week 16 championship games (plus #10 in week 17 for those guys still playing at that point). He's not the reason I made the playoffs (although some big games down the stretch sure helped), but I went from barely a playoff team to blowing the doors off of people because my RB2 went from spot starter to top 3 stud. When Peterson performed like a top3 back that year, he helped his teams, but they spent a top3 pick to get him. Stewart's ADP that year was outside of the top 24 entirely. Arian Foster scored more points than Alfred Morris last season, but I bet Morris carried a lot more teams to championships. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Knowshon Moreno did, too, for that matter. Part of Stewart's value in 2009 was how many points he put up, but part too was where he put them up from.

 

[JustinHawkins]

Not sure how anyone can deny his talent. its just his situation that sucks. He can do it all. Speed, power, balance, good hands. But Cam, Tolbert, and MAYBE DeAngelo (still think he might get cut) hurt his opportunities. Not sure what to expect this year. But holding firm in many dynasty leagues. No reason to sell now.

 

[tdmills]

1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.

2. At this point in their careers, I don't think combine numbers matter. For example, Stewart has regularly struggled with lower body injuries. I doubt he has been consistently running 4.46 on the field in his NFL career.

3. Comparing their YPC without addressing the disparity in workload is disingenuous.

1. You can laugh at it, but it's still accurate.

2. Peterson is older with more carries and a more checkered injury history. Stewart always looked great until last season. That raises a legitimate question mark: was his 2012 a fluke down year or a sign of things to come? I think he's probably young enough to bounce back fine. We'll see though.

3. I wouldn't say it's disingenuous. It's the only thing we have to go by. I agree that workload plays a role in YPC. For example, Bernard Pierce and Daryl Richardson had great YPC averages on modest workloads. That's not as impressive to me as what Doug Martin did on a bigger workload even though his YPC was lower. In general, I think it's a little harder to be dominant in full time duty than as a change of pace back. What's interesting about Stewart is that the best YPC season of his career also coincided with the biggest workload (221 carries for 1133 yards). Scouts talk about backs who get better as the game goes on, and maybe he is (was) one of those guys.

At any rate, the whole point of talking about the YPC is to demonstrate that he has actually been a very effective player overall. I tend to put a little more stock in efficiency stats than the average FF owner, which is why I've been higher than most on a guy like Russell Wilson and down on a guy like Matt Staffford. I think FF owners are too quick to make the assumption that scoring a lot of FF points = playing well in real life. And that not scoring a lot of FF points = playing poorly. Stewart has not scored a lot of FF points for reasons that are mainly beyond his control, but if people want to argue that he hasn't been a good back then I don't think there's much in that.

The more concerning thing for me is his 2012 struggles and ankle surgery. If he loses a step, he might be finished. On the other hand, if he comes back at 100% then he could easily have 3-4 top 15 seasons left in the tank before he calls it a career.

So high that he wasn't in your top 24 rookies post NFL Draft last year?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=641004&hl=dynasty

I didn't mean to imply that I've been a fan since day one. I missed the boat on him last year, but became a fan during/after his rookie season. I've bought him in one league and tried in others. I have him rated higher than most at this point.

It just looked like you were trying to take credit on being "higher on him than most" which seems like a relative statement without anything to back it up. You're top 24 didn't have it listed, so it didn't seem like it had backing.

 

[EBF]

It's somewhat annoying that EBF always starts threads/hypes up players that he owns. Then he cites "buy low", when in fact that isn't the price that he paid.

Example:

Thomas Tyner thread, paid more than a "buy low" for a kid coming out of HS.

I got Tyner with the 7th pick in our dev draft and if he ends up becoming as good as I think he might be, it will indeed be "buying low" in hindsight.

When I talk about buying low, I am generally not talking about paying below market price for a player. I'm talking about players whose market price is out of step with their actual value. Sometimes the two figures are so off that you can pay way above market value and still make a profit. What was Russell Wilson's rookie ADP last year? 30-40? If you spent the 20th pick on him you overpaid, but you also bought low.

There's nothing inconsistent about saying "wow this guy is undervalued" and then going out and paying above market value to get him. That's kind of the whole point of trying to identify guys who are worth a lot more than what they cost.

 

[tdmills]

It's somewhat annoying that EBF always starts threads/hypes up players that he owns. Then he cites "buy low", when in fact that isn't the price that he paid.

Example:

Thomas Tyner thread, paid more than a "buy low" for a kid coming out of HS.

I got Tyner with the 7th pick in our dev draft and if he ends up becoming as good as I think he might be, it will indeed be "buying low" in hindsight.

When I talk about buying low, I am generally not talking about paying below market price for a player. I'm talking about players whose market price is out of step with their actual value. Sometimes the two figures are so off that you can pay way above market value and still make a profit. What was Russell Wilson's rookie ADP last year? 30-40? If you spent the 20th pick on him you overpaid, but you also bought low.

There's nothing inconsistent about saying "wow this guy is undervalued" and then going out and paying above market value to get him. That's kind of the whole point of trying to identify guys who are worth a lot more than what they cost.

Rostering a player on your bench for 3 years, then maybe seeing a dividend in year 4(his rookie year) has a cost to the rest of your team during that time period.

So what is paying above market value for a player you like right now(Jstew)?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

What's interesting about Stewart is that the best YPC season of his career also coincided with the biggest workload (221 carries for 1133 yards). Scouts talk about backs who get better as the game goes on, and maybe he is (was) one of those guys.

Uh, the best YPC season of Stewart's career was 2011, in which he had the 2nd fewest carries of his career.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Single-handledly carried teams to titles in '09? Okay, let's be serious. He had a great week 15 and 16 (109-1 and 206-1), but down the stretch, in three of the four weeks prior to that, he ran for 43, 35 and 29 yards, not scoring in those games either. That is single-handledly carrying a team to a title? In fact, despite his 315 yards those two fantasy playoff weeks, he still only ran for 1,133 yards that season, with 125 of them coming in the meaningless (for FF owners) week 17 game, so basically, he ran for 693 yards in the 13 games prior to the two prime FF playoff weeks. That is a whopping 53 yards per week. That ain't single-handledly carrying teams to titles, unless you really think having a monster week 16 really constitutes carrying a team single-handledly to a title. And really, if the rest of your team didn't do well, you would have lost, so saying Stewart did it all is disingenuous and comes more across as a Stewart dynasty owner trying to cling to the belief that he is better than he really is. And the reason I picked this point out is to demonstrate how deluded Stewart owners have become in regards to this guy. Yes, he has some great games in 2009, but if he single-handledly carried your particular team to a title, then you must have played a dog of a team in the week 16 championship.

He was the #5 fantasy RB over the last half of the season, the #3 fantasy back in week 15, and the #1 fantasy back in week 16 championship games (plus #10 in week 17 for those guys still playing at that point). He's not the reason I made the playoffs (although some big games down the stretch sure helped), but I went from barely a playoff team to blowing the doors off of people because my RB2 went from spot starter to top 3 stud.When Peterson performed like a top3 back that year, he helped his teams, but they spent a top3 pick to get him. Stewart's ADP that year was outside of the top 24 entirely. Arian Foster scored more points than Alfred Morris last season, but I bet Morris carried a lot more teams to championships. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Knowshon Moreno did, too, for that matter. Part of Stewart's value in 2009 was how many points he put up, but part too was where he put them up from.

Okay, but now you are talking value, and getting great value out of someone doesn't mean they single-handledly carried your team to a title. Two of my championship teams in 2012 had Alfred Morris, and I got him for around $5-$7 in both auctions, which was HUGE, but that doesn't mean he single-handledly carried my teams to those championships. That was my beef here, the use of the "single-handledly carried my team to a title" phrase.

Also, was being the number 5 RB over the last half of the season really that impressive given those putrid games I pointed out that he had. Consistency is the key to a great player, not putting up 200 yards one game and 29 in another (especially for RBs, who tend to be way more consistent than WRs). What if Stewart had put up those 35 and 29 yard games in weeks 15 and 16? That second half RB5 wouldn't look nearly as impressive.

 

[EBF]

Rostering a player on your bench for 3 years, then maybe seeing a dividend in year 4(his rookie year) has a cost to the rest of your team during that time period.

Not at all. Players like TJ Yeldon, Todd Gurley, and Amari Cooper already have considerable trade value in FF leagues even though they're years away from the draft. Looking at only at the functional value without considering the potential trade opportunities is missing a big part of the equation.

So what is paying above market value for a player you like right now(Jstew)?

Isn't the answer in the question? If he's ranked as RB25 and you take him at RB20 in a startup, you've paid above market value. Giving up any player who is ranked higher by the consensus would also qualify.

 

[EBF]

What's interesting about Stewart is that the best YPC season of his career also coincided with the biggest workload (221 carries for 1133 yards). Scouts talk about backs who get better as the game goes on, and maybe he is (was) one of those guys.

Uh, the best YPC season of Stewart's career was 2011, in which he had the 2nd fewest carries of his career.

Yea, you're right. I missed that.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

.

Too much personal EBF bashing going on imo.

I give him a lot of credit for ignoring the personal attacks while keeping the football discussion going.

 

[tdmills]

Rostering a player on your bench for 3 years, then maybe seeing a dividend in year 4(his rookie year) has a cost to the rest of your team during that time period.

Not at all. Players like TJ Yeldon, Todd Gurley, and Amari Cooper already have considerable trade value in FF leagues even though they're years away from the draft. Looking at only at the functional value without considering the potential trade opportunities is missing a big part of the equation.

>So what is paying above market value for a player you like right now(Jstew)?

Isn't the answer in the question? If he's ranked as RB25 and you take him at RB20 in a startup, you've paid above market value. Giving up any player who is ranked higher by the consensus would also qualify.

You said JStew is a buy low, but i'm asking at what price. I think many are wondering that.

 

[EBF]

Rostering a player on your bench for 3 years, then maybe seeing a dividend in year 4(his rookie year) has a cost to the rest of your team during that time period.

Not at all. Players like TJ Yeldon, Todd Gurley, and Amari Cooper already have considerable trade value in FF leagues even though they're years away from the draft. Looking at only at the functional value without considering the potential trade opportunities is missing a big part of the equation.

"1365789025">>So what is paying above market value for a player you like right now(

Jstew)?

Isn't the answer in the question? If he's ranked as RB25 and you take him at RB20 in a startup, you've paid above market value. Giving up any player who is ranked higher by the consensus would also qualify.

You said JStew is a buy low, but i'm asking at what price. I think many are wondering that.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=680612&p=15469383

 

[Ernol]

1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.

2. At this point in their careers, I don't think combine numbers matter. For example, Stewart has regularly struggled with lower body injuries. I doubt he has been consistently running 4.46 on the field in his NFL career.

3. Comparing their YPC without addressing the disparity in workload is disingenuous.

1. You can laugh at it, but it's still accurate.

2. Peterson is older with more carries and a more checkered injury history. Stewart always looked great until last season. That raises a legitimate question mark: was his 2012 a fluke down year or a sign of things to come? I think he's probably young enough to bounce back fine. We'll see though.

3. I wouldn't say it's disingenuous. It's the only thing we have to go by. I agree that workload plays a role in YPC. For example, Bernard Pierce and Daryl Richardson had great YPC averages on modest workloads. That's not as impressive to me as what Doug Martin did on a bigger workload even though his YPC was lower. In general, I think it's a little harder to be dominant in full time duty than as a change of pace back. What's interesting about Stewart is that the best YPC season of his career also coincided with the biggest workload (221 carries for 1133 yards). Scouts talk about backs who get better as the game goes on, and maybe he is (was) one of those guys.

At any rate, the whole point of talking about the YPC is to demonstrate that he has actually been a very effective player overall. I tend to put a little more stock in efficiency stats than the average FF owner, which is why I've been higher than most on a guy like Russell Wilson and down on a guy like Matt Staffford. I think FF owners are too quick to make the assumption that scoring a lot of FF points = playing well in real life. And that not scoring a lot of FF points = playing poorly. Stewart has not scored a lot of FF points for reasons that are mainly beyond his control, but if people want to argue that he hasn't been a good back then I don't think there's much in that.

The more concerning thing for me is his 2012 struggles and ankle surgery. If he loses a step, he might be finished. On the other hand, if he comes back at 100% then he could easily have 3-4 top 15 seasons left in the tank before he calls it a career.

So high that he wasn't in your top 24 rookies post NFL Draft last year?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=641004&hl=dynasty

I didn't mean to imply that I've been a fan since day one. I missed the boat on him last year, but became a fan during/after his rookie season. I've bought him in one league and tried in others. I have him rated higher than most at this point.

It just looked like you were trying to take credit on being "higher on him than most" which seems like a relative statement without anything to back it up. You're top 24 didn't have it listed, so it didn't seem like it had backing.

This is likely the case with most people who love Russell Wilson now and who are "higher on him than most". I believe I am higher on him than most as well and I didn't have him in my top 24 last year either. It took his performance in the NFL to sway me (which performance in the NFL was obviously not available to me just after the 2012 draft).

 

[cstu]

The more concerning thing for me is his 2012 struggles and ankle surgery. If he loses a step, he might be finished. On the other hand, if he comes back at 100% then he could easily have 3-4 top 15 seasons left in the tank before he calls it a career.

His ankles are the biggest concern to me since he's had ankle problems since high school.

 

[tdmills]

Rostering a player on your bench for 3 years, then maybe seeing a dividend in year 4(his rookie year) has a cost to the rest of your team during that time period.

Not at all. Players like TJ Yeldon, Todd Gurley, and Amari Cooper already have considerable trade value in FF leagues even though they're years away from the draft. Looking at only at the functional value without considering the potential trade opportunities is missing a big part of the equation.

me="<p">"1365789025">>So what is paying above market value for a player you like right now(<

/p>Jstew)?

Isn't the answer in the question? If he's ranked as RB25 and you take him at RB20 in a startup, you've paid above market value. Giving up any player who is ranked higher by the consensus would also qualify.

You said JStew is a buy low, but i'm asking at what price. I think many are wondering that.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=680612&p=15469383

I saw that, thought you had some recent trade that would shed light on the topic. No biggie

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Yes, it's true that dynasty owners probably aren't selling him low. This would be a better discussion if it was redraft focused. If his ADP is RB24, I consider that a strong buy low situation. He will almost certainly give you RB24 performance on a a ppg basis and has the potential to perform at a much higher rate.

Personally I don't think he's even worth discussing in a redraft context. And no way is he close to undervalued at RB24 for redraft purposes. He was RB37 in PPG last year, and what has changed?

Presumably, the high ankle sprain that hindered him all of last year and required surgery after the season will not be affecting him in 2013. His ranking last year was a direct result of his injury; one must decide if he is going to be healthy or if his injury(ies) have sapped his effectiveness. But his performance while actually injured isn't a useful yardstick looking forward.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

ETA:

Jstew rushing stats

Years 1 and 2= 405 carries for 1,969 yards 4.86 20 TDs

Years 3,4,5= 413 carries for 1,867 yards 4.52 7 TD

Or, put another way:

Jstew rushing stats

Years 1 and 2= 405 carries for 1,969 yards 4.86 20 TDs

Years 3 and 4= 320 carries 1531 yards 4.78 6 TDs

Year 5 (injured) = 93 carries for 336 yards 3.61 1 TD

So, better than 4.8 ypc when relatively healthy.

 

[SSOG]

Okay, but now you are talking value, and getting great value out of someone doesn't mean they single-handledly carried your team to a title. Two of my championship teams in 2012 had Alfred Morris, and I got him for around $5-$7 in both auctions, which was HUGE, but that doesn't mean he single-handledly carried my teams to those championships. That was my beef here, the use of the "single-handledly carried my team to a title" phrase. Also, was being the number 5 RB over the last half of the season really that impressive given those putrid games I pointed out that he had. Consistency is the key to a great player, not putting up 200 yards one game and 29 in another (especially for RBs, who tend to be way more consistent than WRs). What if Stewart had put up those 35 and 29 yard games in weeks 15 and 16? That second half RB5 wouldn't look nearly as impressive.

Value is pretty relevant when discussing Stewart. If you buy him as rb22 in a startup and he gives you three top-5 seasons, that's worth a lot more than if you buy Peterson as rb1 and he does the same. That's what I was saying about reaching a point in the draft where upside begins to far outweigh downside. As for consistency... It's not the key to a great player. Great players are often consistent, but that gets the causal arrow backward- players that score a lot of point tend to have fewer games where they don't score many points, sure, but that's because they score so many points. Players who are consistent don't become great, players who are great become consistent. Add to this the fact that consistency is not consistent (knowing how consistent a player was in year N tells you very little about how consistent he'll be in year N+1), and that consistency really isn't that valuable (someone- maybe ZWK?- ran a study that found that a super-consistent WR that scored 180 points would be expected to net as many wins for his owner as a super-inconsistent WR that scored 182 points). To finish this off, consider that Jonathan Stewart has actually historically been a pretty consistent guy. Come up with any definition of consistency you want (games above 8 points, percentage of games within one std dev of his scoring average, percentage of points scored in his four best games) and compare Stewart to the two guys immediately above and below him in the year-end rankings and you'll see that Stewart is no more inconsistent than we would expect an RB with that many points to be. In short, consistency isn't worth much of anything, IMO- give me the guy who scores more points, regardless of how consistently he does so. If Stewart had laid eggs in week 15 and 16 of 2009, I wouldn't be talking about how he carried teams to titles, and I wouldn't be saying I got a pretty good return on him already. He didn't, though, and the championship trophy he put on my mantle disagrees with anyone who says he's been a disappointment so far and has underperformed what his owners had to pay to get him.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Yes, it's true that dynasty owners probably aren't selling him low. This would be a better discussion if it was redraft focused. If his ADP is RB24, I consider that a strong buy low situation. He will almost certainly give you RB24 performance on a a ppg basis and has the potential to perform at a much higher rate.

Personally I don't think he's even worth discussing in a redraft context. And no way is he close to undervalued at RB24 for redraft purposes. He was RB37 in PPG last year, and what has changed?

Presumably, the high ankle sprain that hindered him all of last year and required surgery after the season will not be affecting him in 2013. His ranking last year was a direct result of his injury; one must decide if he is going to be healthy or if his injury(ies) have sapped his effectiveness. But his performance while actually injured isn't a useful yardstick looking forward.

I know he was banged up early and late but he didn't appear on the injury report at all weeks 5 - 12. His rank among RBs in PPG those weeks? 45th. He was hot garbage last year, and the injuries are stuff that every RB deals with every year.The guy I was disagreeing with called him a "strong buy low" as RB24 -- barring DeAngelo getting cut, I'd say RB24 is close to the upside here (2013 only). And if DeAngelo does get cut, I guarantee you won't be drafting Stewart at anywhere near RB24...

 

[tdmills]

ETA:Jstew rushing statsYears 1 and 2= 405 carries for 1,969 yards 4.86 20 TDsYears 3,4,5= 413 carries for 1,867 yards 4.52 7 TD

Or, put another way: Jstew rushing statsYears 1 and 2= 405 carries for 1,969 yards 4.86 20 TDsYears 3 and 4= 320 carries 1531 yards 4.78 6 TDsYear 5 (injured) = 93 carries for 336 yards 3.61 1 TD So, better than 4.8 ypc when relatively healthy.

Fair enough, those TDs sure went downhill

 

[Fiddles]

Pass

Burned by him and matthews. Never again

 

[ShaHBucks]

This is really a unpredictable situation. Top 5 talent with no real upside in his current situation in Carolina.

 

[Christo]

Pass.

Also, he has arguably the best physical talent of any RB in the NFL? Uh, no. Or have you not heard of a guy named Adrian Peterson?

I remember when we were having the discussion in the CFB thread in 2006. Some of our resident Oregon fans were pimping Stewart over Peterson. Peterson missed 7 games but still out-gained Stewart,

 

[beef]

I thought talent prevailed?

 

[cstu]

I thought talent prevailed?

Injuries prevail over talent.

 

[SSOG]

The guy I was disagreeing with called him a "strong buy low" as RB24 -- barring DeAngelo getting cut, I'd say RB24 is close to the upside here (2013 only). And if DeAngelo does get cut, I guarantee you won't be drafting Stewart at anywhere near RB24...

Yeah, the dynasty distinction is very important. I find that the redraft market tends to be very, very good at pricing Stewart. Whatever his redraft ADP winds up being, I feel pretty confident that it will represent a fair and accurate value for him.

 

[SSOG]

I thought talent prevailed?

Rule of thumb #102: all rules of thumb are sometimes wrong, even this one.

 

[Tau837]

1. I have to laugh at your description of Peterson as leaner. Have you ever seen his legs? It isn't just body weight that matters, it is also relevant how it is distributed.

1. You can laugh at it, but it's still accurate. In order to match Stewart's weight/height ratio, Peterson would have to weigh 257 pounds at his height.

You completely ignored the point in this exchange. I bolded it for you this time.