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I would say the "elite" tier right now is Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitz, and Torry Holt. Basically the guys that you can almost on count producing at a top 5 points per week basis as long as they're playing. Harrison is pretty much there, but he's getting old. Reggie Wayne and Roy Williams are knocking on the door.
The answer, partly, is that some of those guys were considered reaches even at the time where they were taken, some were later-1st rounders and weren't considered elite, and some had drug/personal/dedication issues.Calvin Johnson is the total package just as Fitzgerald is the total package. Please please please don't pass this guy up because some 7th round guy was in the right place at the right time and had a dozen good games. Colston was a nice surprise, and a great story, but he'll never be a Calvin Johnson.That's it for me on the warning front. Proceed at your own peril, Colston fans.
While I don't disagree about Calvin's potential, I don't see why Colston isn't even considered in the elite tier. PPG wise, Colston was better than Steve Smith, Chad, Fitz and Holt last year in my PPR league. Considering that Colston finished 11th and missed 4 games, his prorated 16 game haul would have been #2, right below Harrison. He would have been just behind Harrison even with Harrison's amazing end of the season flurry. He was #1, right before he got hurt. Fitz played in 1 more game than Colston and in my league Colston still finished with 25% more points.I guess, if I were risk averse, I would consider Colston over Calvin just because he is a known quantity. Sure, he could fall on his face, but so could Calvin. I seem to remember that Fitz was considered very risky by many draft pundits and until his second season wasn't considered a sure thing.Until we know where Calvin is going, I like Colston to remain top 5-10 with Brees, McAllister, Bush and a lackluster defense around him. Horn is going away and Colston is Brees' clear #1 WR when healthy and is going to remain open a lot because of Bush and McAllister.If CJ goes #1 to Oakland with Andrew Walter, Porter and Moss, is that a good situation? How about #2 with Kitna and Roy Williams? How about #3 with Frye and Edwards or #4 with Simms and Galloway?Not one of those situations has the QB of Brees, the running game of Bush/McAllister to keep defenses honest and the lack of WR competition that Colston has in New Orleans.
Again, I point to Georgia Tech - he was in the worst situation I could possibly imagine for a WR. Teams could commit their entire defensive game plan to stopping him by blanketing him with double and triple coverage + he had one of the worst 5 or 10 starting QBs in all of division I college football.His numbers?76/1202/15
Thats my thought on it, CJ may be the better but its all speculation right now. Give me the guy who I've already seen put up the numbers and is the #1 in an amazing offense
It's not "all speculation" - you can make strong conclusions about Calvin's future based on his college career - its an indicator of his future. I don't understand why rookies are treated as COMPLETE unknowns. Their futures are less certain than players with NFL experience, but they are not utter mysteries - we have a body of work to judge them by.
Exactly. I really don't understand everybody ready to crown Colston the 2nd coming of Rice. Redraft- sure take Colston, but we are talking dynasty here.
...and I love the fact that many fantasy players will completely ignore what a player has done in the NFL and jump all over each other to land the hot new rookie. Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, Troy Williamson, Reggie Willilams, Charles Rogers, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Peter Warrick, and Plaxico Burress. Those were all top 10 WR picks and many argued that they were "sure fire" studs and that they were "different from the top 10 WR busts from prior years." Even "successful" rookies like Andre Johnson and Roy Williams took several years to hit their stride. Larry Fitzgerald is the only top 10 WR pick in the past few years to make an immediate and consistent impact as a top WR. Calvin Johnson will probably be a pretty good player, but Georgia Tech <> the NFL. Colston has proven that he can do well in the NFL. The "hit rate" of rookie WRs that have even one year as good as Colston is very low. It seems that everyone wants to draw the comparison to Michael Clayton, but what about Boldin? Or Gates? They both came from nowhere and have been consistently good. Colston is a primary target in a passing offense with one of the best QBs in the NFL. He has stability in a very good situation. Calvin Johnson is going to go to a bad team--and probably a bad team with a bad QB. Because he's going to a bad team he'll probably experience a change at HC or OC within the first couple years in the NFL and have to learn a new system. Any argument that you can make about Johnson's production I can make about Colston's production--and he did it in the NFL, not at Georgia Tech. If you are going to diminish Colston's skills, then you haven't seen him play. He has excellent hands and always catches the ball away from his body...and at the highest point. He gets open against top NFL CBs. He gets yards after the catch with deceptive speed. So look at your combine #s and college stats and convince yourself that this time Johnson is truly different than the litany of other top rookie WRs that have preceded him. Convince yourself that the situation that he's going to isn't that bad. I'll do what I've always done and let people like you overpay for my rookie picks with proven veterans.
But Guderian, he really is. I guarantee you NFL scouts and GMs agree. Johnson is quite possibly the best WR prospect we've seen since players were heavily scrutinized for the draft.
I'm lucky enough to have Colston in a couple of leagues (actually drafted him last year)and in 1 league, I have the 1.2 pick (I'm 99% sure I'll go CJ).As far as Colston's situation with the Brees component, I would say that almost all premier WRs will drop in productivity (at least somewhat) when the #1 QB goes down (Steve Smith with Wienke is an extreme example). And why would Brees' backup not utilize the same 'security blanket' receiver?
Steve Smith was a good guy to bring up - Like Delhomme, Brees does tend to rely on one guy. Mumu, then Smith. For Brees, it was Gates, then Colston.FF values are based on a junction of talent and situation. Situation is the more volatile variable. Colston's value is based on his situation more than his talent. CJ's value is basically 100% talent at this point.
Why?Actually I don't think there numbers will be too far apart. Again Colston doesn't have the physical tools as Calvin, not many WR's do, however Colston is in an environment that will allow his continued success. A great young QB, a young dynamic RB, and very good offensive line. Short of an injury I just don't see his numbers falling off much at all.Honestly I think they'll both be 1000 yd 10 tds plus types of WR's for years to come though I doubt Calvin will hit those numbers his rookie year. Again if I have a playoff caliber team my choice is Colston, if the playoffs are questionable I'll take my shot with Calvin's upside.
This is a very fair position - Calvin may not help you win a title this year, but Colston should. In 2008, I think this becomes irrelevant, but it's very relevant now. This missing part of dynasty ranks and comparisons is always "well, who is on your roster? How close are you to contending for a title?". That can make all the difference.
You hear that every year..."this guy is different." Fair enough, let's stipulate that he is everything that the most optimistic people think he is. There are still several issues:1. Can he translate his talent to the NFL? Many talented players can't.2. What kind of situation is he going into? Johnson is going to go into a bad situation. IF we've learned anything over the past few years it's that the early WR picks don't fare well becuse they go to teams with bad QBs and other offensive players. Also, because these teams are bad they often change coaches soon--forcing the player to learn a new system. 3. Can he sustain his performance at a high level? Colston has favorable answers to #1 and #2, we just don't know if he can sustain his performance at a high level.
I am definitely not saying that Calvin isn't legit, just saying that Colston, due to his situation, may be safer. The funny thing is that Colston, before hurting his ankle, was the #1 WR, so if that is safe, then it may be better than Calvin's potential.I am in a keeper/redraft, so to be honest, I have Colston, will keep him, and I am targetting Calvin.Also, being in a bad situation in the NFL >>>>>>>>>>> a bad situation in college. I understand he did well, but in the NFL, he won't be as >>>>>>>>>>>>>> than the DBs like he was in college. It just may be harder for him to really be a top 5 WR with Andrew Walter or some rookie throwing the ball to him while they are getting hit by a DE. Unfortunately, I really don't see any "good" situations for him in the top 3 teams. I think his best hope is Detroit (take over for Furrey) or Tampa with Plummer.
1) I can not come up with a scenario where Calvin's game doesnt translate. There's no glaring weakness in his game and he's a top notch character guy.2) I hear you on the situation, but I think that will only persist for a year, a la Fitz.3) I have no doubt that he will.
Safer never dominated a dynasty league. Foolish hasn't either, but this is one time where I'll take the hype over a guy no one had ranked very high to start with. Someone made a reference to the fact that Colston played at a small college, and that was the reason for his obscurity, but wasn't Jerry Rice the number one rated WR coming out of college? He played for Mississippi Valley State.
Shouldn't you as a Colt fan realize how good a situation can be? Let's take Marvin Harrison, do you think if he was drafted by Miami or Detroit that he would be a HOFer or just an OK receiver.By the way, if you quote my next statement, I was kind of being sarcastic by saying safer. Colston was the #1 WR through week 10 and the #2 WR PPG-wise. That is a hell of a reward for someone you call safe.With Bush, Brees and McAlister all having quite a few years left on their contracts, I think Colston is in a sweet spot, and definitely should be considered in the elite tier, i.e. top 10 with potential for top 5. Hard to risk that for someone who as much potential as he has, might not live up to it.Again, I am targetting Calvin (easier to do in non-dynasty), but I think my point is that if Colston just maintains what he did his rookie year, he will be a high reward and maybe even as high a potential as Calvin would be in a bad situation. Colston put up 70-1038-8 in 12 weeks, that isn't chopped liver.
I have the 1.02 and I would not consider a trade for Colston unless Johnson went to the Raiders. Even then, I would have to see if the Raiders help themselves in the draft and in free agency.
"Forseeable future" is a tricky term, and one you used in connection with both players. What was the Saints or the Jets futures looking like after 2005, for example? Or the Rams in the offseason before they won the Super Bowl? Or the Patriots before their first Super Bowl? Situations change fast in the NFL. Rare, rare ability like Johnson's remains though. I wouldn't be arguing so strongly if he were just a very good player. This is a freak. He will be a big part of changing the forseeable future for some team.
I would agree with this statement. That being said he's still a prospect. He hasn't laced them up in the NFL. Some guys just get to this level and excel. Who knew Jerry Rice was going to be so good? Marvin Harrison was a second round pick selected right AFTER Eddie Kennison. There are too many intangeables here. CJ could go to the Browns and if they don't get a better QB in there, do you expect him to be all world right away? I don't. He could get injured. He could have trouble getting off the line. Who knows.
1) Calvin has already endured horrible QB play. No one is saying Calvin will hit his stride in year 1, just that once he does hit his stride, he might be unmatched in all of football.2) Colston could get hurt too, and in fact, the past indicates he is more likely to.3) I dont see Calvin having any trouble getting off the line in the pros - what are you basing this question on?
I hear this. I mean if Colston is your #1 WR and you dont have anyone else that could become a #1 next year, then you are really setting your team back by making this trade. You would have to gauge if you have the capital to shift around at other positions to snag a guy like Donald Driver to patch the gap - and somehow address it no matter. Still, if i had Colston and could turn him into Calvin, I would do it and worry about the future in the future. You just dont get chances to buy a ticket on the train of a talent like Calvin very often.
I agree with both of these statements.Many would agree with the statement that Michael Turner is better than a number of RBs that are starters. Yet, in 2007, who would you rather have? Perhaps Addai? Deuce McAllister? Brandon Jacobs?Skilled players don't produce anything if they can't get on the field. Everyone coveting Turner right now sees "upside", "potential", "what could be"..... and it's all positive. What if he goes to a RBBC situation, or maybe a starter job on a horrible offensive lined team? Edge was a great back in Indy, yet he struggled in AZ last year. Part of success in FF is finding gems. Another is getting production. Yet another is minimizing risk. All three contribute to these equations, and it isn't formulaic.Sometimes CJ is the right answer, sometimes it is Colston. I'll take the chance that Colston at a tier below CJ is good enough to overcome the unknown of where CJ will be in three months (and down the road) in most FF situations. I wouldn't in every situation, so it is a case by case basis.Excellent discussion.messinwithu said:
Johnson torched some pretty good corners in college. GT hung tough w/ Auburn year before last because CJ singlehandedly took over the offense vs. Carlos Rodgers (1st round draft pick by the 'Skins) and a very good SEC defense that year. TWO YEARS AGO!!!
Amen, my brother!We are talking FANTASY here, which leads me to believe many here are remembering MC the TE. Secondly, we are talking DYNASTY. Isn't the rule talent over situation? No question in my mind. I do love MC, but not more than L.Fitz w/ more speed!
Umm, what slump? He didn't play weeks 11-13, put up 5-48 while working back his conditioning in a blowout against Dallas where he wasn't even needed, had a decent game in the loss to Washington, and then went 4-37-1 in a blowout against the Giants. In week 17, starters were rested. Average game against Philly in their first playoff game where he was the team's second leading receiver, and then a solid game against the best defense in the league the following week (which was unfortunately marred by a fumble.) I'm sorry, but I don't see anything here that indicates much of a slump. And again, we go back to this Michael Clayton comparison with sophomore slumps. How does anything any of these other sophomore slumps have done effect Colston the slightest bit? Given the fact that he's shown sure hands, good route running ability, and a situation that is likely to go nowhere but up, I see no reason to believe he will run into this problem. I think many are extremely skeptical of him just because he was a late round draft pick, but the cream always rises to the top. Are we going to have the same sophomore slump discussion next offseason if Calvin Johnson puts up a great rookie year just because Michael Clayton turned into a bust?
This is where the debate goes South (no pun intended). Injury does not equal slump.
I think you're missing my point entirely. I never said that becuase he's a sophomore he's going to slump. I never in any way said that because Clayton had a slump Colston was going to as well.My point was entirely directed at the people who are saying Colston over CJ because Colston is "proven" and thus has less a chance of busting, when in reality we see as many 1-year wonders as flat out rookie busts, and as many sophomore busts as rookie busts nowadays.People are stuck on this conception that if they guy had a good rookie year he's going to be a star from there on out, and as such 2nd year guys coming off a strong rookie are some of the most overvalued guys in FF. We don't see it as much with WRs as other positions (like RB....good lord the 2nd year busts outweight the rookie busts 3:1 there lately), but it's still there and if I had to pick which one of these guys was going to be an 8-time pro bowler Colston's headstart would in no way be the difference maker, just like Cadillac William's or Julius Jones' headstarts off their rookie year didn't make them better than any of the rookies the next year even though because they had done it in a few games many people now saw them as "proven".We're not talking a guy that's been doing it for 4 years vs. a guy coming out of college here.
Just like Colston was going into this season. Worst to firsts within divisions are quite common these days. Talent will generally trump opportunity and situation given a long enough time frame all other things being equal.
Good point. In one dynasty league, Colston is my number 4 guy so I would trade him for CJ in a sec. But in another Colston is my number 2, and I would still rather have CJ but it makes for a much more difficult decision.Kind of confused about some of the "CJ going to a poor offense" arguments. Number one, wouldn't he make the offense better ( and perhaps substantially so) just given his addition? Number two, what was considered a poor offense last year might be a blockbuster one the next, given changes in coaching as well as players due to the draft and free agency. In other words, things change in a hurry. Give me the stud. I don't watch a whole lot of college football either and only saw G Tech play twice, but that was all it took for me to see what a polished player CJ is. He is incapable of busting at the next level because his play was really already at the next level last year.
Solid list even though Marvin's a tough one to gauge given his age. Not sure he would be in my top 10 going forward but everyone else looks pretty good.
Let's keep it real. The Saints added a pro bowl QB, the 2nd coming of Gayle Sayers and had a pro bowl calibur RB coming back from injury.What are the odds of Calvin joining a team like that?I just can't envision Calvin joining at offense anywhere near as dynamic as the Saints.
I could run down the list of top 10 fantasy WRs and probably only 2 or 3 would be considered "fast for a WR". He had several long TDs this year one 86 yard TD where he caught the ball amongst a couple of Carolina's DBs and beat them all to the endzone. I hardly see why one would be considered an "idiot" for considering a WR who projects to 1,321 yards and 10 TDs over a rookie who's done nothing in the NFL. The Saints had the top offense in the NFL, return essentially all their starters and use Colston heavily in the red zone. Joe Horn is no longer with the team and Colston racked up 455 yards in the 3 games after Horn was injured and before Colston sprained his ankle.
So, Colston will have a sophomore slump and Calvin Johnson won't??? No one has argued that Colston is "proven", however he has "proved" dramatically more than Calvin Johnson by succeeding at the NFL level--even if it's only one year. Calvin has exactly zero years of success at the NFL level. BTW, Colston didn't have a slump, he was hobbled by an ankle injury.
well said, CP.
