[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Matt Forte will be a top 10 pick in almost every dynasty draft this offseason. If you're the guy who drafts him that high, you deserve to have your fantasy football license suspended. Here's why...

In 16 starts last season, Forte only averaged 4.0 YPC or higher 6 times. He finished the season with a very mediocre 3.9 YPC average. That's worse than the 4.1 YPC Thomas Jones averaged in Chicago and it's only slightly better than the 3.8 YPC Cedric Benson compiled under the same regime. Yet while Jones was widely considered mediocre and Benson an outright disaster, Forte is currently valued alongside some of the best backs in the league. Why?

Because people are confusing fantasy football success with NFL success. Matt Forte had a great FF season in 2008. He was one of the top scoring backs in almost every league. Yet when you take a closer look at the numbers, there's no evidence to suggest that he was an effective NFL player. He had a mediocre YPC average, was bottled up more often than not, and showed no flair for making spectacular plays (only two plays of 30+ yards out of 379 touches).

The only reason Forte's stats look impressive is because he had the second most touches out of any back in the league. When you look at the yards-per-touch, he doesn't stand out. He just happened to be in the right place at the right time. The Bears were a pitiful team last season. Their leading receiver had 665 yards. With no semblance of a passing game, they had no choice but to feed the ball to Forte and hope to keep the score low.

Forte was lucky to get that many touches and he was lucky to score as many TDs as he did. Thomas Jones averaged 7 TDs in three seasons as Chicago's starter. He never had more than 9 in a season. Forte had 12 last year. You can attribute that to his talent if you'd like, but he wasn't breaking long plays or hitting home runs.

Right about now the Forte defenders are probably itching their keyboards...

"Yea, his YPC was low, but he scored a ton of FF points!" That's fine, but his NFL performance was mediocre and mediocre NFL players have a tendency to lose their jobs. 3.9 YPC is lousy. Sure, LaDainian Tomlinson didn't do any better as a rookie, but there were objective reasons to believe that he was a special talent: he had a top 5 pedigree and ideal combine numbers. Forte doesn't have those things working in his favor. He's a second round talent with mediocre measurables.

"Yea, I know his stats look average on paper and I know he wasn't a first round pick, but you have to watch the games!" I watched the games. Forte looked okay. Then again, so did Tashard Choice and I'm not taking him in the top 10 of my dynasty draft. If I draft a player that high, I have to know that he's a special talent. Matt Forte might eventually reach that level, but as of right now there's no objective reason to believe that he's an elite NFL player. If you take him at his ADP in a dynasty league, you might be wearing one of these next season:

 

[loose circuits]

i could have sworn we have already had this conversation

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

 

[treat88]

For better or worse, he is Joseph Addai part 2.

The average physical skills will show through at some point in a way that becomes relevant to FF.

 

[poopdawg]

In PPR leagues, I think he could be nice. Especially in leagues where you get bonus for RB TD receptions. I do own him in 2 leagues and am loving his potential.

 

[PranksterJD]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

 

[Sanboy]

this is plain and simple ..

read slowly

IN FF -- in PPR LEAGUES .. FORTE is golden

because not only is he one of the few every down backs in the NFL ........ meaning he doesnt really have a RBBC to worry about ( C.Johnson / L.White --- D.Williams / J.Stewart ... yada yada yada

Forte will never have 150 yard rushing games

but if he gets 80 yards and catches 5 balls for 60 and he gets 2 td's ... he is a top 10 fantasy Rb without question

he is that guy you dont have to reply totally on rushing yards alone ..... he can have a bad day rushing .. but save the whole day by having a 80 yard catching game and 2 td's ..

M.Turner for example is a top 10 Rb .. BUT if he has a bad day running the ball .. its over .. becasue the guy cant catch a cold

if your going only on rushing yards . the guy is very very overrated . and would not be a top 10

 

[loose circuits]

For better or worse, he is Joseph Addai part 2.The average physical skills will show through at some point in a way that becomes relevant to FF.

I don't think there situations could be more different. Addai plays in an offense where people fear the passing game. Forte played on an offense that had a bunch of slot receivers playing as the starters. If the Bears can turn that passing game around, Forte's YPC will increase

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

For better or worse, he is Joseph Addai part 2.The average physical skills will show through at some point in a way that becomes relevant to FF.

really??? if Forte played in Indy with all those other weapons he'd be even better.Forte light up the league with really nothing else to worry about on O. While that is a concern. I think Orton greq last year and maybe they can add more WR wepaons to take even more D heat off him

 

[Burning Sensation]

i could have sworn we have already had this conversation

We have, and i actually believe EBF is just repeating the same things he said in that thread. I think Forte is the real deal, but like ANYONE in the league, it might be wise trading a player while their value is this high. I recently traded him for Greg Jennings and the 1.3 rookie pick.I am suprised nobody has mentioned Anthony Thomas yet.

 

[PranksterJD]

For better or worse, he is Joseph Addai part 2.The average physical skills will show through at some point in a way that becomes relevant to FF.

I don't think there situations could be more different. Addai plays in an offense where people fear the passing game. Forte played on an offense that had a bunch of slot receivers playing as the starters. If the Bears can turn that passing game around, Forte's YPC will increase

Couterpoint of course being that if the Bears can turn the passing game around then they won't rush him as often. If his YPC is defined by talent level rather than the abysmal passing attack, then same YPC + lower touches = middling RB2.This whole debate is going to come down to where you think his talent level is, and whether it was the rest of the Bears or Forte himself who kept his YPC low.

 

[EBF]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

 

[Donnybrook]

IMHO, the single most over-rated player in FF is Matt Cassel. He was traded to a 2-14 team and FF owners are trading boatloads of rookie picks and/or starting RBs to get him.

 

[EBF]

this is plain and simple .. read slowly IN FF -- in PPR LEAGUES .. FORTE is golden because not only is he one of the few every down backs in the NFL ........ meaning he doesnt really have a RBBC to worry about ( C.Johnson / L.White --- D.Williams / J.Stewart ... yada yada yada Forte will never have 150 yard rushing games but if he gets 80 yards and catches 5 balls for 60 and he gets 2 td's ... he is a top 10 fantasy Rb without question he is that guy you dont have to reply totally on rushing yards alone ..... he can have a bad day rushing .. but save the whole day by having a 80 yard catching game and 2 td's .. M.Turner for example is a top 10 Rb .. BUT if he has a bad day running the ball .. its over .. becasue the guy cant catch a cold if your going only on rushing yards . the guy is very very overrated . and would not be a top 10

Right, but...1. Who says he's going to get 380 touches every year? If his touches drop to average levels, his value will drop too.2. How many RBs who average less than 4 YPC keep their starting job? He could very well be a backup 2-3 years from now if he doesn't improve. I have no problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league. I think he's a terrible pick there in dynasty though.

 

[treat88]

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Exactly.Which was my point in bringing up Addai in the first place.He's got a very small window of productive years before he is facing competition for the job. Far smaller than truly elite talents.

 

[Football Jones]

It's amazing what Forte did with what he had to work with. He was surrounded by a poor OL & fellow skill players...yet he thrived. There's very few RBs I like better than Matt Forte in a dynasty league. I believe where people are going wrong is confusing a mediocre YPC with a lack of talent. It doesn't work that way. Forte is one of the better natural runners in the league. When you combine that with his outstanding receiving skills, you get a much different picture.

If Chicago improves his surrounding cast, not only will Forte continue to be a good FF RB, he very likely will be one of the best FF players in the NFL (especially PPR).

 

[cstu]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

 

[Burning Sensation]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

So Forte and Addai were in similar situations? How can you even compare Manning, Harrison, Wayne, etc. to Orton, Hester, etc.? Sure, the Bears defense gave Forte an opportunity to get alot of carries, but were you not the one hating on RB's like CJohnson, Slaton and Mcfadden because they couldnt handle a full workload?Also, you were calling Forte a sell high after week one against the Colts. Had you owned Forte, and traded him then, you would have given up ALOT of value.

 

[EBF]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

 

[Christo]

this is plain and simple ..

read slowly

IN FF -- in PPR LEAGUES .. FORTE is golden

because not only is he one of the few every down backs in the NFL ........ meaning he doesnt really have a RBBC to worry about ( C.Johnson / L.White --- D.Williams / J.Stewart ... yada yada yada

Forte will never have 150 yard rushing games

but if he gets 80 yards and catches 5 balls for 60 and he gets 2 td's ... he is a top 10 fantasy Rb without question

he is that guy you dont have to reply totally on rushing yards alone ..... he can have a bad day rushing .. but save the whole day by having a 80 yard catching game and 2 td's ..

M.Turner for example is a top 10 Rb .. BUT if he has a bad day running the ball .. its over .. becasue the guy cant catch a cold

if your going only on rushing yards . the guy is very very overrated . and would not be a top 10

I believe you could say that about any RB.If my RB could just get me 2 TDs today I'm golden! :fingerscrossed:

 

[Burning Sensation]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.

Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

Exactly, what were people expecting from him with his supporting cast. I dont think AD would have done much better under the circumstances.

 

[EBF]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

I already said that I don't have any problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league.Dynasty is a different story. Only elite players hold down starting jobs in the NFL for more than a season or two. So far there's been no indication that Forte is an elite player. There are countless ways that he could lose his job. Ask Chris Brown, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor, Willis McGahee, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, and Ronnie Brown about job security.

 

[PranksterJD]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

Next year is not the only year the people taking him top 10 will have him on their teams.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

I already said that I don't have any problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league.Dynasty is a different story. Only elite players hold down starting jobs in the NFL for more than a season or two. So far there's been no indication that Forte is an elite player. There are countless ways that he could lose his job. Ask Chris Brown, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor, Willis McGahee, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, and Ronnie Brown about job security.

I dont think Addai is in any danger of losing his job, he put up a clunker last year no doubt, he screams value to me regardless of format.I think your underestimating his (forte) value in PPR leagues dynasty or not. He reminds me of eddie george with much better, softer handsnot only that but in PPR leagues who of the guys you listed has had a top 5 FFL finish in PPR leagues? addai twice other than that the rest of those guys are meh. Forte did it in season 1.

 

[Burning Sensation]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

I already said that I don't have any problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league.Dynasty is a different story. Only elite players hold down starting jobs in the NFL for more than a season or two. So far there's been no indication that Forte is an elite player. There are countless ways that he could lose his job. Ask Chris Brown, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor, Willis McGahee, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, and Ronnie Brown about job security.

Which RB's would you take ahead of Forte in an intial dynasty draft that you would consider elite talents? Other than AD and MJD, i cant think of another RB that has less question marks.

 

[bigmurd]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

I already said that I don't have any problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league.Dynasty is a different story. Only elite players hold down starting jobs in the NFL for more than a season or two. So far there's been no indication that Forte is an elite player. There are countless ways that he could lose his job. Ask Chris Brown, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor, Willis McGahee, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, and Ronnie Brown about job security.

A few points:Who is an elite player @ the RB position going into 2009? I'm not saying there aren't any, but there aren't many.Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380. I only own him in one Dynasty because I didn't draft him in the others and I'm not paying the going price, but he looked like a pretty nice player to me the 4 or so times I saw him. I was especially impressed by his pass catching which was totally unexpected for me.

 

[PranksterJD]

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

380 was total touches. Mistaken earlier.And Forte's yards per catch didn't exactly scream excellence either.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

380 was total touches. Mistaken earlier.And Forte's yards per catch didn't exactly scream excellence either.

but I play in PPR leagues not YPC leagues

 

[Donnybrook]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.

Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

I already said that I don't have any problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league.Dynasty is a different story. Only elite players hold down starting jobs in the NFL for more than a season or two. So far there's been no indication that Forte is an elite player. There are countless ways that he could lose his job. Ask Chris Brown, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor, Willis McGahee, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, and Ronnie Brown about job security.

Remind me. When did Willie Parker lose his job?

 

[EBF]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

I already said that I don't have any problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league.Dynasty is a different story. Only elite players hold down starting jobs in the NFL for more than a season or two. So far there's been no indication that Forte is an elite player. There are countless ways that he could lose his job. Ask Chris Brown, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor, Willis McGahee, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, and Ronnie Brown about job security.

A few points:Who is an elite player @ the RB position going into 2009? I'm not saying there aren't any, but there aren't many.Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380. I only own him in one Dynasty because I didn't draft him in the others and I'm not paying the going price, but he looked like a pretty nice player to me the 4 or so times I saw him. I was especially impressed by his pass catching which was totally unexpected for me.

I meant touches when I said carries. He had 379 touches last season. I agree that it's a really bad time for dynasty RBs. Peterson and MJD are elite talents in the prime of their career. You can probably say the same about Jackson and Gore. Beyond them, you're either gambling on a small track record (CJ3, Stewart), age (Portis, Westbrook), character (Lynch), health (Ronnie), RBBC (Barber, DWill), or some combination of the above. That doesn't mean Forte isn't overvalued. In PPR leagues, people are going to draft him ahead of Pro Bowl talents like Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Calvin Johnson. That makes me throw up in my mouth a little. This is a good year to trade out of the first round or take a WR in dynasty drafts. Just because there aren't a lot of good RB options at the top of the draft doesn't mean it's smart to take a bad gamble on Forte in the top 10 picks.

 

[Domination]

I think that the one fact that you are leaving out, is that Forte is in a rare situation in the NFl these days. He has a chance to be the unquestioned #1, and not involved in a RBBC. I always went by the theory, that the more times that you touch the ball, the more chance there is for something good to happen. BTW, Chicago's line is not very good, so that could have something to do with the low YPC.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

I already said that I don't have any problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league.Dynasty is a different story. Only elite players hold down starting jobs in the NFL for more than a season or two. So far there's been no indication that Forte is an elite player. There are countless ways that he could lose his job. Ask Chris Brown, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor, Willis McGahee, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, and Ronnie Brown about job security.

A few points:Who is an elite player @ the RB position going into 2009? I'm not saying there aren't any, but there aren't many.Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380. I only own him in one Dynasty because I didn't draft him in the others and I'm not paying the going price, but he looked like a pretty nice player to me the 4 or so times I saw him. I was especially impressed by his pass catching which was totally unexpected for me.

I meant touches when I said carries. He had 379 touches last season. I agree that it's a really bad time for dynasty RBs. Peterson and MJD are elite talents in the prime of their career. You can probably say the same about Jackson and Gore. Beyond them, you're either gambling on a small track record (CJ3, Stewart), age (Portis, Westbrook), character (Lynch), health (Ronnie), RBBC (Barber, DWill), or some combination of the above. That doesn't mean Forte isn't overvalued. In PPR leagues, people are going to draft him ahead of Pro Bowl talents like Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Calvin Johnson. That makes me throw up in my mouth a little. This is a good year to trade out of the first round or take a WR in dynasty drafts. Just because there aren't a lot of good RB options at the top of the draft doesn't mean it's smart to take a bad gamble on Forte in the top 10 picks.

I'd rather gamble on Cjohnson but thats a different debate.

 

[EBF]

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

380 was total touches. Mistaken earlier.And Forte's yards per catch didn't exactly scream excellence either.

but I play in PPR leagues not YPC leagues

Frankly, you missed the point of my entire post.The question isn't whether Forte will put up big FF numbers if he continues to get 380 touches.The question is whether or not he'll continue to get 380 touches.As I said in my first post, mediocre players have a tendency to be marginalized in the NFL.

 

[Burning Sensation]

so who is Forte gonna lose his job to? Kevin jones?

I think the point is that it might not be 2009 when he hits a wall, but its certainly **sometime**. As a top 10 pick in dynasty, I wouldn't think that's generally the strategy to go with.I don't think EBF's saying he absolutely won't be a productive fantasy player in 2009, but more that the Bears won't necessarily provide the optimum conditions forever, and as such taking Forte at his ADP is, to a certain degree, hurting yourself right out of the starting gate.

Think Joe Addai. Top 5 pick in most startups last year. Lucky to be top 15 in this year's group. Who knows about next year.

An average talent who derives most of his value from his situation generally = a bad gamble in dynasty.

Forte thrived DESPITE his situation. Very few people expected him to even average 3.9 YPC behind the Bears OL and that putrid passing game.

No, he thrived BECAUSE he got 380 carries, which was a direct result of his situation.A good situation does not necessarily mean a good offense. The Texans were a good situation for Domanick Davis, but they were a horrible offense. Very similar situation here. The lack of options on offense means they have to feed the RB.

so you dont think the bears will feed the RB next year?

I already said that I don't have any problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league.Dynasty is a different story. Only elite players hold down starting jobs in the NFL for more than a season or two. So far there's been no indication that Forte is an elite player. There are countless ways that he could lose his job. Ask Chris Brown, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor, Willis McGahee, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, and Ronnie Brown about job security.

A few points:Who is an elite player @ the RB position going into 2009? I'm not saying there aren't any, but there aren't many.

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

I only own him in one Dynasty because I didn't draft him in the others and I'm not paying the going price, but he looked like a pretty nice player to me the 4 or so times I saw him. I was especially impressed by his pass catching which was totally unexpected for me.

I meant touches when I said carries. He had 379 touches last season. I agree that it's a really bad time for dynasty RBs. Peterson and MJD are elite talents in the prime of their career. You can probably say the same about Jackson and Gore. Beyond them, you're either gambling on a small track record (CJ3, Stewart), age (Portis, Westbrook), character (Lynch), health (Ronnie), RBBC (Barber, DWill), or some combination of the above.

That doesn't mean Forte isn't overvalued. In PPR leagues, people are going to draft him ahead of Pro Bowl talents like Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Calvin Johnson. That makes me throw up in my mouth a little. This is a good year to trade out of the first round or take a WR in dynasty drafts. Just because there aren't a lot of good RB options at the top of the draft doesn't mean it's smart to take a bad gamble on Forte in the top 10 picks.

You wont find a bigger gamble in dynasty leagues than Brandon Marshall.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I think that the one fact that you are leaving out, is that Forte is in a rare situation in the NFl these days. He has a chance to be the unquestioned #1, and not involved in a RBBC. I always went by the theory, that the more times that you touch the ball, the more chance there is for something good to happen. BTW, Chicago's line is not very good, so that could have something to do with the low YPC.

He didn't leave any of this out.

 

[Donnybrook]

That doesn't mean Forte isn't overvalued. In PPR leagues, people are going to draft him ahead of Pro Bowl talents like Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Calvin Johnson. That makes me throw up in my mouth a little. This is a good year to trade out of the first round or take a WR in dynasty drafts. Just because there aren't a lot of good RB options at the top of the draft doesn't mean it's smart to take a bad gamble on Forte in the top 10 picks.

Did you puke your guts out after you took Marshaun Lynch ahead of Calvin Johnson in non-PPR?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

380 was total touches. Mistaken earlier.And Forte's yards per catch didn't exactly scream excellence either.

but I play in PPR leagues not YPC leagues

Frankly, you missed the point of my entire post.The question isn't whether Forte will put up big FF numbers if he continues to get 380 touches.The question is whether or not he'll continue to get 380 touches.As I said in my first post, mediocre players have a tendency to be marginalized in the NFL.

No I get your point, You dont like Forte becuase you consider him to be mediocre. Got it. who is going to steal his touches? or will Chicago in the next few season have some major philosphy shift? Or are you saying they will add another RB, whcih they did in K.Jones, who to me is a backup plus they have Wolf and the other ADP.IMO forte gets the carries there for the forseeable future.

 

[EBF]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows.

Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.

Which of these is not like the others?

 

[EBF]

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

380 was total touches. Mistaken earlier.And Forte's yards per catch didn't exactly scream excellence either.

but I play in PPR leagues not YPC leagues

Frankly, you missed the point of my entire post.The question isn't whether Forte will put up big FF numbers if he continues to get 380 touches.The question is whether or not he'll continue to get 380 touches.As I said in my first post, mediocre players have a tendency to be marginalized in the NFL.

No I get your point, You dont like Forte becuase you consider him to be mediocre. Got it. who is going to steal his touches? or will Chicago in the next few season have some major philosphy shift? Or are you saying they will add another RB, whcih they did in K.Jones, who to me is a backup plus they have Wolf and the other ADP.IMO forte gets the carries there for the forseeable future.

One way or another, mediocrity inevitably sinks to the bottom in the NFL.Maybe it will be Kevin Jones. Maybe it will be Steven Jackson. Maybe it will be Jonathan Dwyer.You never know HOW it's going to happen, but you know it's inevitable. Forte might prove to be an elite talent when all is said and done, but his rookie year and draft pedigree don't suggest rare ability.You don't want to use a top 10 dynasty pick on someone with a vulnerable long term value.

 

[Burning Sensation]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I think most people agree that he would get drafted after those 6 in a PPR league, so how does that make Forte "The single most overrated player in FF"?

 

[bigmurd]

A few points:

Who is an elite player @ the RB position going into 2009? I'm not saying there aren't any, but there aren't many.

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

I only own him in one Dynasty because I didn't draft him in the others and I'm not paying the going price, but he looked like a pretty nice player to me the 4 or so times I saw him. I was especially impressed by his pass catching which was totally unexpected for me.

I meant touches when I said carries. He had 379 touches last season.

I agree that it's a really bad time for dynasty RBs. Peterson and MJD are elite talents in the prime of their career. You can probably say the same about Jackson and Gore. Beyond them, you're either gambling on a small track record (CJ3, Stewart), age (Portis, Westbrook), character (Lynch), health (Ronnie), RBBC (Barber, DWill), or some combination of the above.

That doesn't mean Forte isn't overvalued. In PPR leagues, people are going to draft him ahead of Pro Bowl talents like Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Calvin Johnson. That makes me throw up in my mouth a little. This is a good year to trade out of the first round or take a WR in dynasty drafts. Just because there aren't a lot of good RB options at the top of the draft doesn't mean it's smart to take a bad gamble on Forte in the top 10 picks.

I agree with you on RB's which is why I asked. MJD and ADP are locks for me. The rest (even Jackson and Gore) make me think twice. Obviously some of them will pan out but I can't say with confidence which ones.

As far as the WR's you mention, I'm not crazy aboout Marshall and I still wonder a little about Jennings longevity. Fitz, CJ and AJ have more value than any RB outside of ADP and MJD on my board so I think I know where you're coming from.

 

[EBF]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I think most people agree that he would get drafted after those 6 in a PPR league, so how does that make Forte "The single most overrated player in FF"?

He'll probably be the least talented player picked in the top 20 of every dynasty league this year. You don't pay Rolls Royce prices for a Ford Taurus.

 

[bigmurd]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I think most people agree that he would get drafted after those 6 in a PPR league, so how does that make Forte "The single most overrated player in FF"?

Good point also - it doesn't. I guess the OP doesn't think he'll pan out. But I still think he's a 1st rounder in start-ups regardless of scoring format.

 

[Burning Sensation]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I think most people agree that he would get drafted after those 6 in a PPR league, so how does that make Forte "The single most overrated player in FF"?

He'll probably be the least talented player picked in the top 20 of every dynasty league this year. You don't pay Rolls Royce prices for a Ford Taurus.

You wouldnt draft Forte in the top 20? Im not saying the guy is AD, but he is certainly talented, and has fewer question marks than most of the RB's that will go in the first 20 picks.

 

[Donnybrook]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I have narrowed it down to Maurice Jones-Drew or Matt Forte since both were drafted in the 2nd round. EBF knows that elite talent can't possible come from a 2nd round.

 

[Da Guru]

I agree 100%

 

[EBF]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I think most people agree that he would get drafted after those 6 in a PPR league, so how does that make Forte "The single most overrated player in FF"?

He'll probably be the least talented player picked in the top 20 of every dynasty league this year. You don't pay Rolls Royce prices for a Ford Taurus.

You wouldnt draft Forte in the top 20? Im not saying the guy is AD, but he is certainly talented, and has fewer question marks than most of the RB's that will go in the first 20 picks.

No one puts a gun to your head and forces you to draft a RB in the top 20 (at least I hope not). There are few RBs in the league right now that I'd pick in the top 20 of a PPR dynasty draft. However, here's Bloom's top ten dynasty RBs:1. Adrian Peterson2. Steven Jackson3. Michael Turner4. Matt Forte5. DeAngelo Williams6. Frank Gore7. Maurice Jones-Drew8. Marion Barber9. Chris Johnson10. Marshawn LynchI think Forte is easily one of the 2-3 least talented players on this list. There's no reason to take a mediocre talent in the top 3 rounds of a dynasty draft given the wealth of elite players available.

 

[Burning Sensation]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I think most people agree that he would get drafted after those 6 in a PPR league, so how does that make Forte "The single most overrated player in FF"?

He'll probably be the least talented player picked in the top 20 of every dynasty league this year. You don't pay Rolls Royce prices for a Ford Taurus.

You wouldnt draft Forte in the top 20? Im not saying the guy is AD, but he is certainly talented, and has fewer question marks than most of the RB's that will go in the first 20 picks.

No one puts a gun to your head and forces you to draft a RB in the top 20 (at least I hope not). There are few RBs in the league right now that I'd pick in the top 20 of a PPR dynasty draft. However, here's Bloom's top ten dynasty RBs:1. Adrian Peterson2. Steven Jackson3. Michael Turner4. Matt Forte5. DeAngelo Williams6. Frank Gore7. Maurice Jones-Drew8. Marion Barber9. Chris Johnson10. Marshawn LynchI think Forte is easily one of the 2-3 least talented players on this list. There's no reason to take a mediocre talent in the top 3 rounds of a dynasty draft given the wealth of elite players available.

What would your top 10 RB's look like?ETA, other than AD, which of these RB's did you consider elite talents after their rookie year?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

380 was total touches. Mistaken earlier.And Forte's yards per catch didn't exactly scream excellence either.

but I play in PPR leagues not YPC leagues

Frankly, you missed the point of my entire post.The question isn't whether Forte will put up big FF numbers if he continues to get 380 touches.

The question is whether or not he'll continue to get 380 touches.

As I said in my first post, mediocre players have a tendency to be marginalized in the NFL.

No I get your point, You dont like Forte becuase you consider him to be mediocre. Got it. who is going to steal his touches? or will Chicago in the next few season have some major philosphy shift? Or are you saying they will add another RB, whcih they did in K.Jones, who to me is a backup plus they have Wolf and the other ADP.

IMO forte gets the carries there for the forseeable future.

One way or another, mediocrity inevitably sinks to the bottom in the NFL.Maybe it will be Kevin Jones. Maybe it will be Steven Jackson. Maybe it will be Jonathan Dwyer.

You never know HOW it's going to happen, but you know it's inevitable.

Forte might prove to be an elite talent when all is said and done, but his rookie year and draft pedigree don't suggest rare ability.

You don't want to use a top 10 dynasty pick on someone with a vulnerable long term value.

so your basing this on his draft pedigree? the dude was a 2nd round pick an performed great as a rookie. Top5 scoring in most formats, #2 in ppr. his YPC was low, so thats your indication? he's on a bad team, really bad offensive team, after like week3 he was only thing the D had to key on and was still productive. SO he dont have game breaking ability, so what edge james longest run ever was like 30 yards.that being said Im always leery of 1 year wonder types, and he oculd be one. but to suggest he shouldnt go in the top 20 of a dynasty league draft is foolish,