[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (2 Viewers)

[King of the Wolfies]

did Forte non-fans even bother watching him play? The guy plays with heart and is very versatile. Sounds like a great recipe for success to me.

 

[jwb]

That doesn't mean Forte isn't overvalued. In PPR leagues, people are going to draft him ahead of Pro Bowl talents like Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Calvin Johnson. That makes me throw up in my mouth a little. This is a good year to trade out of the first round or take a WR in dynasty drafts. Just because there aren't a lot of good RB options at the top of the draft doesn't mean it's smart to take a bad gamble on Forte in the top 10 picks.

I've seen two dynasty startups so far, both were insanely WR heavy in the first three rounds. Fitz and Calvin are now top 5 dynasty picks (PPR). In one, I think 6 of the top 10 were WR's. And trying to trade for an elite WR in a PPR league? Next to impossible.

 

[EBF]

so your basing this on his draft pedigree? the dude was a 2nd round pick an performed great as a rookie. Top5 scoring in most formats, #2 in ppr. his YPC was low, so thats your indication? he's on a bad team, really bad offensive team, after like week3 he was only thing the D had to key on and was still productive.

Thomas Jones averaged 4.1 YPC as a Bear. Cedric Benson averaged 3.8 YPC as a Bear. Neither player was ever said to have "performed great." Yet Forte puts up 3.9 YPC and people act like he's one of the elite backs in the league.Like I said in my first post, people are allowing his FF numbers to cloud their perception of his NFL numbers. He did not have a great rookie season. He did not have a good rookie season. He merely got a lot of opportunities. I have no reason to believe that any number of mediocre pro backs couldn't have yielded similar results with that workload. Forte was productive by virtue of his workload and not by virtue of his playmaking skills. That's a red flag.

 

[EBF]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I think most people agree that he would get drafted after those 6 in a PPR league, so how does that make Forte "The single most overrated player in FF"?

He'll probably be the least talented player picked in the top 20 of every dynasty league this year. You don't pay Rolls Royce prices for a Ford Taurus.

You wouldnt draft Forte in the top 20? Im not saying the guy is AD, but he is certainly talented, and has fewer question marks than most of the RB's that will go in the first 20 picks.

No one puts a gun to your head and forces you to draft a RB in the top 20 (at least I hope not). There are few RBs in the league right now that I'd pick in the top 20 of a PPR dynasty draft. However, here's Bloom's top ten dynasty RBs:1. Adrian Peterson2. Steven Jackson3. Michael Turner4. Matt Forte5. DeAngelo Williams6. Frank Gore7. Maurice Jones-Drew8. Marion Barber9. Chris Johnson10. Marshawn LynchI think Forte is easily one of the 2-3 least talented players on this list. There's no reason to take a mediocre talent in the top 3 rounds of a dynasty draft given the wealth of elite players available.

What would your top 10 RB's look like?

I generally don't make rankings when I draft. I build a short list of players who I'm willing to take at their ADP.

ETA, other than AD, which of these RB's did you consider elite talents after their rookie year?

Not many. That's why I didn't take them in the top 10 of my draft. These days I only use a top 10 pick on someone when I'm convinced he's an elite talent. If I have any reservations about a player, I take someone else.

 

[Stitch]

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

380 was total touches. Mistaken earlier.And Forte's yards per catch didn't exactly scream excellence either.

but I play in PPR leagues not YPC leagues

Frankly, you missed the point of my entire post.The question isn't whether Forte will put up big FF numbers if he continues to get 380 touches.The question is whether or not he'll continue to get 380 touches.As I said in my first post, mediocre players have a tendency to be marginalized in the NFL.

What a crock. You traded Adrian Peterson for Gregg Jennings. Greg Jennings is the epitome of an average NFL player. It's all about situation with him.

 

[two_dollars]

EBF you obviously are not a chicago bear fan, nor do you know anything about bear culture. Forte IS the bears. Forte WILL REMAIN the bears. Everything else added to the offense will be to relieve pressure from Forte. His numbers are not going to drop. 3.9 YPC with a bad O-Line and no passing offense.. yeah I'll take that. I watched every carry of his. In Dynasty RB's, I would take him 3rd-4th. Assuming everyone had the same list I do, it would go: 1- AP, 2- MJD, 3- Forte, 4- Turner

 

[EBF]

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

380 was total touches. Mistaken earlier.And Forte's yards per catch didn't exactly scream excellence either.

but I play in PPR leagues not YPC leagues

Frankly, you missed the point of my entire post.The question isn't whether Forte will put up big FF numbers if he continues to get 380 touches.The question is whether or not he'll continue to get 380 touches.As I said in my first post, mediocre players have a tendency to be marginalized in the NFL.

What a crock. You traded Adrian Peterson for Gregg Jennings. Greg Jennings is the epitome of an average NFL player. It's all about situation with him.

Anyone who reads my posts knows that I don't like to invest in RBs in dynasty. Peterson has had two years of spotless health. Maybe his good luck will continue, but his track record suggests skepticism.That move was less an indictment of Peterson and more of an endorsement of Jennings though. I think he's going to be very productive for a long time. People overlook him because he isn't flashy, but I think he's a great talent. Reminds me of Holt/Bruce/Wayne.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

so your basing this on his draft pedigree? the dude was a 2nd round pick an performed great as a rookie. Top5 scoring in most formats, #2 in ppr. his YPC was low, so thats your indication? he's on a bad team, really bad offensive team, after like week3 he was only thing the D had to key on and was still productive.

Thomas Jones averaged 4.1 YPC as a Bear. Cedric Benson averaged 3.8 YPC as a Bear. Neither player was ever said to have "performed great." Yet Forte puts up 3.9 YPC and people act like he's one of the elite backs in the league.Like I said in my first post, people are allowing his FF numbers to cloud their perception of his NFL numbers. He did not have a great rookie season. He did not have a good rookie season. He merely got a lot of opportunities. I have no reason to believe that any number of mediocre pro backs couldn't have yielded similar results with that workload. Forte was productive by virtue of his workload and not by virtue of his playmaking skills. That's a red flag.

Obviously you dont watch any Bears games. Cedric was a total waste on the Bears because as soon as he got touched, he'd go down. Forte takes a pounding b4 he goes down. Looking at nothing more than stats is a great way to build a very average team.

 

[Football Jones]

To me, Forte sticks out like a sore thumb on the field (in a good way). I've said this before, but his loose hips were the first thing that impressed me about Forte when I saw him at Tulane. The kid can tote the rock. He's just a natural born runner with good vision & his top-notch pass-catching ability is icing on the cake (especially in PPR leagues).

Not only do I think he's better than average, I believe Matt Forte is special. Look out when he gets some help (he'll be even more productive).

 

[awesomeness]

He just happened to be in the right place at the right time.

He is in the right place at the right time. He's still in Chicago which i'm sure you'd admit is ideal for his style, and judging by the way the fans love the guy, and the coach trusts the guy i don't expect the Bears to draft/sign a RB to replace him any time soon. Neither Thomas Jones or Cedric Benson could catch the ball like Forte can, and being a dual threat like Forte is ensures he is going to see the field a lot. I just don't see how Forte's opportunity is going to change so dramatically that it will make Forte anything less than a top 15 RB in the next 2-3-4 years. That's his floor imo, barring injury. He's already finished as a top 5 RB in non PPR, so we know he is capable of such success.

He seems like a pretty safe pick to me. Starting a dynasty league right now after ADP, Stephen Jackson, MJD, Chris Johnson, and Michael Turner, i don't know how you don't pick Matt Forte. Will he be a top 5 RB for the next couple years? Probably not. But he's a safer bet to be a top 10 RB for the next 2-3-4 years than any other remaining RB.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

With a 3.9 average he can't really be that good. I mean he had John St. Clair ahead of him and Rashied Davis keeping defenses honest and he put up a 3.9? Terrible.

Walter Payton never put up 3.9. He put up 3.5 as a rookie, but not 3.9.

Ladainian Tomlinson didn't run for 3.9 as a rookie either. He did in 2004, but as a rookie he put up 3.6. Of course he was on a team with a terrible line and not much of a passing game. Really I think it was just the 398 touches he got that year that allowed him to put up any numbers.

 

[identikit]

With a 3.9 average he can't really be that good. I mean he had John St. Clair ahead of him and Rashied Davis keeping defenses honest and he put up a 3.9? Terrible. Walter Payton never put up 3.9. He put up 3.5 as a rookie, but not 3.9.Ladainian Tomlinson didn't run for 3.9 as a rookie either. He did in 2004, but as a rookie he put up 3.6. Of course he was on a team with a terrible line and not much of a passing game. Really I think it was just the 398 touches he got that year that allowed him to put up any numbers.

Awesome post, even....

 

[Vibe Raiders]

Some people obviously watch numbers more than games. The kid is a talent and and looked like a vet getting that 3.9 ypc not a rookie.

I love that people like you will under value him!

 

[Burning Sensation]

Some people obviously watch numbers more than games. The kid is a talent and and looked like a vet getting that 3.9 ypc not a rookie.I love that people like you will under value him!

The only argument EBF seems to have against Forte is his 3.9 YPC. I agree that he must not have watched Forte play much, and if so, i would like to know what part of his game that EBF doesnt like.

 

[bcr8f]

What now with a healthy Kevin Jones?

 

[Burning Sensation]

What now with a healthy Kevin Jones?

Jones will certainly see more carries than he got last year, but not enough to really affect Fortes value much, and not enough to make Jones any more valuable than a handcuff to Forte.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I think most people agree that he would get drafted after those 6 in a PPR league, so how does that make Forte "The single most overrated player in FF"?

He'll probably be the least talented player picked in the top 20 of every dynasty league this year. You don't pay Rolls Royce prices for a Ford Taurus.

You wouldnt draft Forte in the top 20? Im not saying the guy is AD, but he is certainly talented, and has fewer question marks than most of the RB's that will go in the first 20 picks.

No one puts a gun to your head and forces you to draft a RB in the top 20 (at least I hope not). There are few RBs in the league right now that I'd pick in the top 20 of a PPR dynasty draft. However, here's Bloom's top ten dynasty RBs:1. Adrian Peterson2. Steven Jackson3. Michael Turner4. Matt Forte5. DeAngelo Williams6. Frank Gore7. Maurice Jones-Drew8. Marion Barber9. Chris Johnson10. Marshawn LynchI think Forte is easily one of the 2-3 least talented players on this list. There's no reason to take a mediocre talent in the top 3 rounds of a dynasty draft given the wealth of elite players available.

What would your top 10 RB's look like?

I generally don't make rankings when I draft. I build a short list of players who I'm willing to take at their ADP.

ETA, other than AD, which of these RB's did you consider elite talents after their rookie year?

Not many. That's why I didn't take them in the top 10 of my draft. These days I only use a top 10 pick on someone when I'm convinced he's an elite talent. If I have any reservations about a player, I take someone else.

'I generally don't make rankings when I draft. I build a short list of players who I'm willing to take at their ADP.'Please say you didn't really mean what you wrote above. Or that I'm miss reading it. Anyone not doing rankings when you drafting has NO shot at winning in that League. If you meant to say I(EBF) don't do my own rankings because I use Blooms rankings than I can understand it alittle bit, but anyone using someone else's rankings does not have a place in saying what a player is worth. Let's face it, you don't even have Forte ranked. Makes no sence to me. It's the little things that get to me, yes that's a joke, because doing rankings and knowing how to rank players is HUGE part in how You will do in your League.Signed a player who does his Own rankings.

 

[Burning Sensation]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

I think most people agree that he would get drafted after those 6 in a PPR league, so how does that make Forte "The single most overrated player in FF"?

He'll probably be the least talented player picked in the top 20 of every dynasty league this year. You don't pay Rolls Royce prices for a Ford Taurus.

You wouldnt draft Forte in the top 20? Im not saying the guy is AD, but he is certainly talented, and has fewer question marks than most of the RB's that will go in the first 20 picks.

No one puts a gun to your head and forces you to draft a RB in the top 20 (at least I hope not). There are few RBs in the league right now that I'd pick in the top 20 of a PPR dynasty draft. However, here's Bloom's top ten dynasty RBs:1. Adrian Peterson2. Steven Jackson3. Michael Turner4. Matt Forte5. DeAngelo Williams6. Frank Gore7. Maurice Jones-Drew8. Marion Barber9. Chris Johnson10. Marshawn LynchI think Forte is easily one of the 2-3 least talented players on this list. There's no reason to take a mediocre talent in the top 3 rounds of a dynasty draft given the wealth of elite players available.

What would your top 10 RB's look like?

I generally don't make rankings when I draft. I build a short list of players who I'm willing to take at their ADP.

ETA, other than AD, which of these RB's did you consider elite talents after their rookie year?

Not many. That's why I didn't take them in the top 10 of my draft. These days I only use a top 10 pick on someone when I'm convinced he's an elite talent. If I have any reservations about a player, I take someone else.

'I generally don't make rankings when I draft. I build a short list of players who I'm willing to take at their ADP.'Please say you didn't really mean what you wrote above. Or that I'm miss reading it. Anyone not doing rankings when you drafting has NO shot at winning in that League. If you meant to say I(EBF) don't do my own rankings because I use Blooms rankings than I can understand it alittle bit, but anyone using someone else's rankings does not have a place in saying what a player is worth. Let's face it, you don't even have Forte ranked. Makes no sence to me. It's the little things that get to me, yes that's a joke, because doing rankings and knowing how to rank players is HUGE part in how You will do in your League.Signed a player who does his Own rankings.

I dont think he meant he doesnt rank his own players, i think he just means he does it in tiers, and doesnt really stick to an exact list. With that said, i also think he is avoiding putting up his top 10 RB's because he knows Forte would have to make the list.

 

[runner06]

When you use a first round dynasty pick on a player, you want to know that you're getting an elite talent. You want to get someone who's absolutely going to stay productive and contribute to your team for as long as his health allows. Consider the names you'll see in the first round of your drafts this year: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and...Matt Forte.Which of these is not like the others?

Steven Jackson. He's missed multiple games due to injuries two straight seasons. I wouldn't touch him in the first couple rounds of a dynasty start-up.

 

[RBM]

For better or worse, he is Joseph Addai part 2.The average physical skills will show through at some point in a way that becomes relevant to FF.

I don't think there situations could be more different. Addai plays in an offense where people fear the passing game. Forte played on an offense that had a bunch of slot receivers playing as the starters. If the Bears can turn that passing game around, Forte's YPC will increase

Bears have a weak, bad o-line, and a bad passing game.This thread is stupid

 

[mozzy84]

Forte had 316 caries last year, not 380.

380 was total touches. Mistaken earlier.And Forte's yards per catch didn't exactly scream excellence either.

but I play in PPR leagues not YPC leagues

Frankly, you missed the point of my entire post.The question isn't whether Forte will put up big FF numbers if he continues to get 380 touches.The question is whether or not he'll continue to get 380 touches.As I said in my first post, mediocre players have a tendency to be marginalized in the NFL.

What a crock. You traded Adrian Peterson for Gregg Jennings. Greg Jennings is the epitome of an average NFL player. It's all about situation with him.

 

[squistion]

Some people obviously watch numbers more than games.

True. Some people also feel that draft pedigree counts more than on the field performance (not disputing the high correlation of success, but there occasionlly are exceptions).Some people also make up their minds about rookies before they have started a game, and rather than admit they may have been wrong, anaylze backward after the rookie year and finds stats that justify their original opinion. I also tend to give more credibility to Bloom, who actually has provided us with his rankings, over some people who (for whatever reason) are unwilling or unable to do so when asked. I can't imagine participating in a draft and not having a list of rankings by position to work with, but not everyone has the same approach to FF.

 

[TaxMan]

The main question is will Forte remain a workhorse to get 340+ (280-290 rush, 50-60 rec) touches every year. If so, and if the Bears are gonna improve, Forte might be able to live up to his ADP of a top5-8 dynasty back.

 

[Chachi]

380 touches on year, injured the next? I seem to recall some people around here yapping about this as fact?

 

[EBF]

With a 3.9 average he can't really be that good. I mean he had John St. Clair ahead of him and Rashied Davis keeping defenses honest and he put up a 3.9? Terrible. Walter Payton never put up 3.9. He put up 3.5 as a rookie, but not 3.9.Ladainian Tomlinson didn't run for 3.9 as a rookie either. He did in 2004, but as a rookie he put up 3.6. Of course he was on a team with a terrible line and not much of a passing game. Really I think it was just the 398 touches he got that year that allowed him to put up any numbers.

LT was a top 5 pick with ideal combine numbers.Forte was a second round pick with mediocre combine numbers. In LT's case, there were objective reasons to believe that he had elite talent despite his low YPC. In Forte's case, there are no objective reasons to believe that he's anything more than an average back benefiting from a good situation.

 

[EBF]

Some people also feel that draft pedigree counts more than on the field performance (not disputing the high correlation of success, but there occasionlly are exceptions).Some people also make up their minds about rookies before they have started a game, and rather than admit they may have been wrong, anaylze backward after the rookie year and finds stats that justify their original opinion. I also tend to give more credibility to Bloom, who actually has provided us with his rankings, over some people who (for whatever reason) are unwilling or unable to do so when asked. I can't imagine participating in a draft and not having a list of rankings by position to work with, but not everyone has the same approach to FF.

1. Do I value draft pedigree over on the field performance? Not exactly. Eddie Royal didn't have any more draft hype than Forte, but I'm extremely high on him going forward. You have to understand that I don't think Forte's rookie season was particularly impressive. He didn't make big plays and failed to exceed 4.0 YPC more often than not. He simply compiled a large number of yards and catches through sheer accumulation.2. This thread has very little to do with my opinion about Forte when he was a rookie prospect. I was equally down on Slaton and CJ, yet you don't see me making posts calling them out. Why? Because they actually showed signs of special talent. 3. I posted some rankings last year, but in general, I don't make complete rankings. When I'm preparing for a draft, I build a very short list of players that I'd be willing to draft. The idea is that I only want to take players that I have 100% faith in. If I have any doubts about a player, I won't draft him. I'm building a list for the HyperActive 4 draft right now. So far I have 7 QBs, 8 RBs, 26 WRs, and 1 TE on that list. The list will grow leading up to the draft, but I won't be ranking every player in the league. It's a senseless approach.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Some people also feel that draft pedigree counts more than on the field performance (not disputing the high correlation of success, but there occasionlly are exceptions).Some people also make up their minds about rookies before they have started a game, and rather than admit they may have been wrong, anaylze backward after the rookie year and finds stats that justify their original opinion. I also tend to give more credibility to Bloom, who actually has provided us with his rankings, over some people who (for whatever reason) are unwilling or unable to do so when asked. I can't imagine participating in a draft and not having a list of rankings by position to work with, but not everyone has the same approach to FF.

1. Do I value draft pedigree over on the field performance? Not exactly. Eddie Royal didn't have any more draft hype than Forte, but I'm extremely high on him going forward. You have to understand that I don't think Forte's rookie season was particularly impressive. He didn't make big plays and failed to exceed 4.0 YPC more often than not. He simply compiled a large number of yards and catches through sheer accumulation.2. This thread has very little to do with my opinion about Forte when he was a rookie prospect. I was equally down on Slaton and CJ, yet you don't see me making posts calling them out. Why? Because they actually showed signs of special talent. 3. I posted some rankings last year, but in general, I don't make complete rankings. When I'm preparing for a draft, I build a very short list of players that I'd be willing to draft. The idea is that I only want to take players that I have 100% faith in. If I have any doubts about a player, I won't draft him. I'm building a list for the HyperActive 4 draft right now. So far I have 7 QBs, 8 RBs, 26 WRs, and 1 TE on that list. The list will grow leading up to the draft, but I won't be ranking every player in the league. It's a senseless approach.

'but I won't be ranking every player in the league. It's a senseless approach.'So come the 6th round you punt? Come on, anyone can make picks in rounds 1-4 top 48 players but Leagues are won in the later rounds, were players that I(am) high on do well. I'm not going to get into this again on this topic, but maybe you should reconsidered how you do your rankings going forward, it might help you win some Leagues.

 

[identikit]

Some people also feel that draft pedigree counts more than on the field performance (not disputing the high correlation of success, but there occasionlly are exceptions).

Some people also make up their minds about rookies before they have started a game, and rather than admit they may have been wrong, anaylze backward after the rookie year and finds stats that justify their original opinion.

I also tend to give more credibility to Bloom, who actually has provided us with his rankings, over some people who (for whatever reason) are unwilling or unable to do so when asked. I can't imagine participating in a draft and not having a list of rankings by position to work with, but not everyone has the same approach to FF.

1. Do I value draft pedigree over on the field performance? Not exactly. Eddie Royal didn't have any more draft hype than Forte, but I'm extremely high on him going forward. You have to understand that I don't think Forte's rookie season was particularly impressive. He didn't make big plays and failed to exceed 4.0 YPC more often than not. He simply compiled a large number of yards and catches through sheer accumulation.2. This thread has very little to do with my opinion about Forte when he was a rookie prospect. I was equally down on Slaton and CJ, yet you don't see me making posts calling them out. Why? Because they actually showed signs of special talent.

3. I posted some rankings last year, but in general, I don't make complete rankings. When I'm preparing for a draft, I build a very short list of players that I'd be willing to draft. The idea is that I only want to take players that I have 100% faith in. If I have any doubts about a player, I won't draft him. I'm building a list for the HyperActive 4 draft right now. So far I have 7 QBs, 8 RBs, 26 WRs, and 1 TE on that list. The list will grow leading up to the draft, but I won't be ranking every player in the league. It's a senseless approach.

Why you don't post about Slaton or CJ3? I think I know why.

Same reason you'll be not posting about Forte after this next season.

There's a definite trend here.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

EBF which player does Matt Forte remind you of?

 

[gianmarco]

This is what I find very interesting.

Here I wrote a very similar writeup of Lynch going into this year. I said he had very few big plays. I said he had a low ypc at 3.9. And I argued that the main reason he looked good was because of the # of touches he got. I caught a lot of flack for it even though 2008 turned out to prove me right for the most part (decent RB2, not a RB1 or worthy of a top 5-6 pick like he was going).

What's interesting is that EBF came in and posted that he thought Lynch would do well despite those things. Here are some quotes from that thread

I think Lynch's perceived value is actually very close to his true value. He's a starting caliber RB on a team that's headed in the right direction. He may never be a stud, but he won't be a bust unless he gets injured. I view him as a top 8-15 type dynasty RB who makes an excellent RB2 in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

I agree with comments about the supporting cast. He played well for the Bills last season. The only reason his numbers look mediocre is because he had no help.

As for Lynch, I really think he's in a good position to at worst duplicate his 2007 season. I don't see the volatility there that I saw with someone like Maroney. There is no risk of Lynch losing significant touches to a backup and there's little reason to think he lacks talent. Buffalo will be running a lot this year since Jauron seems like the conservative "play not to lose" type. I think you'll be fine with Lynch as your RB2 although he's probably a slight reach as a RB1 in most leagues.

Now, I happen to agree on Forte for the most part in that a lot of his value came on # of touches. What I find interesting is that these guys have the same arguments against them, but in my thread re: Lynch, you claimed he should be ok. Not surprisingly, you had Lynch as #3 on your rookie list. However, in the same vein, you ignore your earlier thought process and use those exact same reasons I did against Lynch to say that Forte won't do well. Not surprisingly, you weren't high on Forte (#24 ranked rookie on your list)Of note:

Marshawn Lynch combine: 4.46 forty time, 35 1/2 vert

Matt Forte combine: 4.44 forty time, 33 vert

So, what gives?

 

[EBF]

EBF which player does Matt Forte remind you of?

There's no one exactly like him. I'd say maybe a young Deuce McAllister or a more fluid Chris Brown.

 

[identikit]

 

[identikit]

EBF which player does Matt Forte remind you of?

There's no one exactly like him. I'd say maybe a young Deuce McAllister or a more fluid Chris Brown.

So he's a one-of-a-kind? Thanks for playing.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Its shocking how personally some people take it when a player they like has their value questioned.

I dont want to speak for EBF, but I am pretty sure it is not a personal affront to any of you Forte owners or Bears fans.

FWIW, I dont agree completely with his analysis on this one either, but I also dont think Forte is a bona fide top 10 pick. He comes with plenty of risk for all of the reasons sited. I believe his true value lies somewhere in the middle of the Forte lovers, and EBF's opinion.

I see him as a scary RB1 to own, but a real solid RB2. I would definitely not want my dynasty tem to be relying upon Forte as it's RB1. Just my opinion...nothing personal.

 

[jurb26]

It's amazing what Forte did with what he had to work with. He was surrounded by a poor OL & fellow skill players...yet he thrived. There's very few RBs I like better than Matt Forte in a dynasty league. I believe where people are going wrong is confusing a mediocre YPC with a lack of talent. It doesn't work that way. Forte is one of the better natural runners in the league. When you combine that with his outstanding receiving skills, you get a much different picture.If Chicago improves his surrounding cast, not only will Forte continue to be a good FF RB, he very likely will be one of the best FF players in the NFL (especially PPR).

I tend to agree with this. I was not very high on Forte coming out of college (mainly because I didn't know a lot about him just like most everyone). My impressions of him as a NFL RB have gone up though. Not really sure how ones couldn't. This guy does look to have starting RB ability IMO. Sure, he may not have superstar ability, but you don't need that to be successful or to hold onto your job. At this point today, I wouldn't take any of the incoming rookie RBs over Forte. I guess we'll have to see for years beyond that.

 

[jurb26]

EBF which player does Matt Forte remind you of?

There's no one exactly like him. I'd say maybe a young Deuce McAllister or a more fluid Chris Brown.

So he's a one-of-a-kind? Thanks for playing.

He reminds me of Robert Smith, Minn with less top end speed.

 

[EBF]

This is what I find very interesting.

Here I wrote a very similar writeup of Lynch going into this year. I said he had very few big plays. I said he had a low ypc at 3.9. And I argued that the main reason he looked good was because of the # of touches he got. I caught a lot of flack for it even though 2008 turned out to prove me right for the most part (decent RB2, not a RB1 or worthy of a top 5-6 pick like he was going).

What's interesting is that EBF came in and posted that he thought Lynch would do well despite those things. Here are some quotes from that thread

I think Lynch's perceived value is actually very close to his true value. He's a starting caliber RB on a team that's headed in the right direction. He may never be a stud, but he won't be a bust unless he gets injured. I view him as a top 8-15 type dynasty RB who makes an excellent RB2 in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

I agree with comments about the supporting cast. He played well for the Bills last season. The only reason his numbers look mediocre is because he had no help.

As for Lynch, I really think he's in a good position to at worst duplicate his 2007 season. I don't see the volatility there that I saw with someone like Maroney. There is no risk of Lynch losing significant touches to a backup and there's little reason to think he lacks talent. Buffalo will be running a lot this year since Jauron seems like the conservative "play not to lose" type. I think you'll be fine with Lynch as your RB2 although he's probably a slight reach as a RB1 in most leagues.

Now, I happen to agree on Forte for the most part in that a lot of his value came on # of touches. What I find interesting is that these guys have the same arguments against them, but in my thread re: Lynch, you claimed he should be ok. Not surprisingly, you had Lynch as #3 on your rookie list. However, in the same vein, you ignore your earlier thought process and use those exact same reasons I did against Lynch to say that Forte won't do well. Not surprisingly, you weren't high on Forte. Of note:

Marshawn Lynch combine: 4.46 forty time, 35 1/2 vert

Matt Forte combine: 4.44 forty time, 33 vert

So, what gives?

I think when you read the full comments, you'll see that my overall analysis of Lynch was pretty spot on:

I view him as a top 8-15 type dynasty RB who makes an excellent RB2 in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

I think you'll be fine with Lynch as your RB2 although he's probably a slight reach as a RB1 in most leagues

He ended up finishing RB12-13 in most of my leagues, which aligns with my advice. Obviously I didn't anticipate his character problems escalating like they have. There is a little bit of hypocrisy there using some of the same arguments that I'm using against Forte to support Marshawn, but Marshawn is a better athlete and he has a better draft pedigree. I also had a stronger subjective belief in his talent.

You posted their combine numbers, but you left off one of the drills that I value the most (the broad jump). Here's how they stack up using the three drills that I look at when I'm evaluating RB prospects:

Matt Forte

40 - 4.44

Vertical Leap - 33"

Broad Jump - 9'10"

Marshawn Lynch

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 35.5"

Broad Jump - 10'5"

Forte has good speed. He's probably faster than Lynch on the football field by a decent margin. However, the jumps leave a lot to be desired. 35.5" is borderline, but 33" is downright bad. A 9'10" broad jump is poor for a 6'1" player. Lynch did 10'5" and he's only 5'11". He appears to have a little more pop in his legs.

Combine numbers and draft pedigree alone don't spell a player's doom. Brian Westbrook and Frank Gore were third round picks with unimpressive workout numbers. The big difference is that those guys have consistently cranked out high YPC averages when given a high number of carries. If Forte was doing the same then I wouldn't be worried about his draft pedigree. However, the fact that he had a poor YPC combined with his weak pedigree sends up red flags.

Basically, he looked like an average back entering the league and he hasn't proven otherwise. Therefore it's hard for me to judge him as anything else than an average back. If he comes out next year and dominates then I'll shut up.

 

[gianmarco]

Its shocking how personally some people take it when a player they like has their value questioned.I dont want to speak for EBF, but I am pretty sure it is not a personal affront to any of you Forte owners or Bears fans.FWIW, I dont agree completely with his analysis on this one either, but I also dont think Forte is a bona fide top 10 pick. He comes with plenty of risk for all of the reasons sited. I believe his true value lies somewhere in the middle of the Forte lovers, and EBF's opinion.I see him as a scary RB1 to own, but a real solid RB2. I would definitely not want my dynasty tem to be relying upon Forte as it's RB1. Just my opinion...nothing personal.

This is actually how I see him too. I think he's a slightly better version of what Lynch was going into this year. Ideal RB2, not a great RB1. However, given the lack of top tier RB's at this point and compared to other options, I think he's worthy of a ranking as a top 10 RB, closer to 10. He may not provide great value but I don't think there's 12 other true RB1's at this point.

 

[jurb26]

Basically, he looked like an average back entering the league and he hasn't proven otherwise. Therefore it's hard for me to judge him as anything else than an average back. If he comes out next year and dominates then I'll shut up.

I find it extremely hard to believe that anyone who watches football did not leave last season with a better impression of Forte's ability than they did prior to it starting. Maybe it wasn't better by enough of a margin to "like" him, but none the less, it should have been better. He was one of the more pleasant surprises of the rookie class.

 

[gianmarco]

Basically, he looked like an average back entering the league and he hasn't proven otherwise. Therefore it's hard for me to judge him as anything else than an average back. If he comes out next year and dominates then I'll shut up.

I find it extremely hard to believe that anyone who watches football did not leave last season with a better impression of Forte's ability than they did prior to it starting. Maybe it wasn't better by enough of a margin to "like" him, but none the less, it should have been better. He was one of the more pleasant surprises of the rookie class.

I wasn't a believer. I traded him for K. Smith in a league where I took over a team. I was wrong. He's not an elite talent, but he's a worthwhile guy to own.

 

[PranksterJD]

This is what I find very interesting.

Here I wrote a very similar writeup of Lynch going into this year. I said he had very few big plays. I said he had a low ypc at 3.9. And I argued that the main reason he looked good was because of the # of touches he got. I caught a lot of flack for it even though 2008 turned out to prove me right for the most part (decent RB2, not a RB1 or worthy of a top 5-6 pick like he was going).

What's interesting is that EBF came in and posted that he thought Lynch would do well despite those things. Here are some quotes from that thread

<< removed EBF quotes for brevity >>

Now, I happen to agree on Forte for the most part in that a lot of his value came on # of touches. What I find interesting is that these guys have the same arguments against them, but in my thread re: Lynch, you claimed he should be ok. Not surprisingly, you had Lynch as #3 on your rookie list. However, in the same vein, you ignore your earlier thought process and use those exact same reasons I did against Lynch to say that Forte won't do well. Not surprisingly, you weren't high on Forte (#24 ranked rookie on your list)

Of note:

Marshawn Lynch combine: 4.46 forty time, 35 1/2 vert

Matt Forte combine: 4.44 forty time, 33 vert

So, what gives?

You've been around here long enough to know that pedigree will be part of the argument here ( unless BMI comes up ). Lynch was the 12th overall pick. Forte was picked over a full round later.Whether pedigree is a valid point, and to what degree, is up to the observer. I don't weight it as high as EBF seems to, but I also don't completely dismiss it like much of the pool does. There's value in this number. Its the only clearly defined version of what an NFL GM thinks of a player, and ( generally ) NFL GMs know more about this than I do.

As far as Lynch goes, and without speaking for Funk, he looked special to me. I was on the bandwagon for sure, but I've soured because of the same arguments that you've given. At this point he's in the same spot as Forte. I wouldn't really want him as a top 10 pick in dynasty either, because he feels like a high end RB2.

 

[EBF]

Basically, he looked like an average back entering the league and he hasn't proven otherwise. Therefore it's hard for me to judge him as anything else than an average back. If he comes out next year and dominates then I'll shut up.

I find it extremely hard to believe that anyone who watches football did not leave last season with a better impression of Forte's ability than they did prior to it starting. Maybe it wasn't better by enough of a margin to "like" him, but none the less, it should have been better. He was one of the more pleasant surprises of the rookie class.

Oh, he's definitely earned some respect. However, that doesn't mean I'm going to take him in the top 10 of a dynasty draft when there are bankable talents available.My argument isn't really that Matt Forte is trash. It's that he has no business going as high as he will.I've been playing FF long enough to recognize some trends. One thing that inevitably happens EVERY year is sophomore RBs being overvalued if they show any signs of life as rookies. We've seen it in recent years with Joseph Addai, Laurence Maroney, Cadillac Williams, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Chris Brown, Michael Bennett, and Anthony Thomas. Now sometimes these players turn out to be the real deal. LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Clinton Portis have all turned out great. Maybe Forte will do the same. However, there's also a probability that he's the next in a long line of sophomore busts who were given way too much credit on the basis of one decent season. I don't think everyone is factoring that risk into their ranking of Forte. If they were, they might be reluctant to take him in the top 10 where there are (near) 100% locks available. That's why I dubbed him the single most overrated player in FF. When you buy Forte at his current cost, you're paying Rolls Royce prices for a player who could turn out to be a Buick.

 

[PranksterJD]

Its shocking how personally some people take it when a player they like has their value questioned.I dont want to speak for EBF, but I am pretty sure it is not a personal affront to any of you Forte owners or Bears fans.FWIW, I dont agree completely with his analysis on this one either, but I also dont think Forte is a bona fide top 10 pick. He comes with plenty of risk for all of the reasons sited. I believe his true value lies somewhere in the middle of the Forte lovers, and EBF's opinion.I see him as a scary RB1 to own, but a real solid RB2. I would definitely not want my dynasty tem to be relying upon Forte as it's RB1. Just my opinion...nothing personal.

This is actually how I see him too. I think he's a slightly better version of what Lynch was going into this year. Ideal RB2, not a great RB1. However, given the lack of top tier RB's at this point and compared to other options, I think he's worthy of a ranking as a top 10 RB, closer to 10. He may not provide great value but I don't think there's 12 other true RB1's at this point.

Part of what's getting missed, I suppose, in this thread... is that no one is trying to say he isn't a top 10 RB, just that he shouldn't be a Top 10 pick in dynasty startup drafts.I believe he should probably be in the Top 10 running backs off the board in most cases. But, there are many WRs that even in non-PPR would jump above him for me, simply because of exactly what you said. If there isn't a true RB1 sitting there for me to take... then give me Fitz, Calvin, Andre, Jennings, etc. Guys I know will be productive without the risk.

 

[jurb26]

Basically, he looked like an average back entering the league and he hasn't proven otherwise. Therefore it's hard for me to judge him as anything else than an average back. If he comes out next year and dominates then I'll shut up.

I find it extremely hard to believe that anyone who watches football did not leave last season with a better impression of Forte's ability than they did prior to it starting. Maybe it wasn't better by enough of a margin to "like" him, but none the less, it should have been better. He was one of the more pleasant surprises of the rookie class.

Oh, he's definitely earned some respect. However, that doesn't mean I'm going to take him in the top 10 of a dynasty draft when there are bankable talents available.My argument isn't really that Matt Forte is trash. It's that he has no business going as high as he will.I've been playing FF long enough to recognize some trends. One thing that inevitably happens EVERY year is sophomore RBs being overvalued if they show any signs of life as rookies. We've seen it in recent years with Joseph Addai, Laurence Maroney, Cadillac Williams, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Chris Brown, Michael Bennett, and Anthony Thomas. Now sometimes these players turn out to be the real deal. LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Clinton Portis have all turned out great. Maybe Forte will do the same. However, there's also a probability that he's the next in a long line of sophomore busts who was given way too much credit on the basis of one decent season. I don't think everyone is factoring that risk into their ranking of Forte. If they were, they might be reluctant to take him in the top 10 where there are (near) 100% locks available. That's why I dubbed him the single most overrated player in FF. When you buy Forte at his current cost, you're paying Rolls Royce prices for a player who could turn out to be a Buick.

Understandable. I get what you're saying and generally I agree. I suppose I happen to have gained more respect for Forte this past year than you. Again, I see him as having NFL starting caliber talent just not superstar talent. Sure he will not beat out the Peterson's of the world, but the thing is there are very few of those guys to go around.I guess I'll try and put it another way. To really see the amount of risk you are saying Forte has I envision the talking heads of that NFL franchise sitting in a room and saying "boy our RB is average and we really need to upgrade or we can't take that next step." I don't have that impression of Forte. Actually I have an opposite impression. I would imagine the Chi talking heads saying "boy, Forte is the only thing we have on offense right now and we need to get that guy some help." Maybe I'm wrong though.

 

[loose circuits]

it's fairly obvious that EBF has not watched Forte play much if at all...

 

[squistion]

My argument isn't really that Matt Forte is trash. It's that he has no business going as high as he will.

I've been playing FF long enough to recognize some trends. One thing that inevitably happens EVERY year is sophomore RBs being overvalued if they show any signs of life as rookies. We've seen it in recent years with Joseph Addai, Laurence Maroney, Cadillac Williams, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Chris Brown, Michael Bennett, and Anthony Thomas. Now sometimes these players turn out to be the real deal. LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, and Clinton Portis have all turned out great. Maybe Forte will do the same.

However, there's also a probability that he's the next in a long line of sophomore busts who were given way too much credit on the basis of one decent season. I don't think everyone is factoring that risk into their ranking of Forte. If they were, they might be reluctant to take him in the top 10 where there are (near) 100% locks available.

I have played Dynasty FF as long as you, and, yes, if you are taking a cold analytical approach based on how many sophmore RBs have been overvalued after their rookie years, you can make a persuasive argument against Forte.But rather than go with the 100% locks (which are not guaranteed) I prefer to go with players that impress me irrespective of draft pedigree or a sub 4.0 YPC. Forte did well in a bad situation and of the few games I did see, I liked what I saw and there is an intangible quality I have picked up on to make me believe he will continue to do well. There are not numbers/stats I can necessarily point to, but perhaps my mind recognizes patterns on some level that I can't articulate.

Some of us like to roll the dice, some of us take a more pragmatic approach. I am in the former category, while you tend to be more linear in your thinking.

I will trust my unscientific intution with a player like Forte any time over a stat sheet and a draft pedigree. If I am right, then I got a player that will do well enough on a weekly basis to take me to the playoffs in just about any league this year. If I am wrong, I will regroup next year. I have been right more often than I have been wrong, but maybe I have just been lucky.

 

[two_dollars]

Combine numbers are stupid to put stock into.

 

[identikit]

Combine numbers are stupid to put stock into.

People use them to prove their biases about players.Makes themselves feel better I guess.

 

[PranksterJD]

Combine numbers are stupid to put stock into.

Yeah, I agree. I hate it when idiots like NFL head coaches and general managers show up at the combine. We all know that these exercises aren't **really** specifically designed to evaluate a player's ability, but rather the whole thing is a ploy by the NFL Network to boost their nielsen rating.

 

[boubucarow]

this is plain and simple ..

read slowly

IN FF -- in PPR LEAGUES .. FORTE is golden

because not only is he one of the few every down backs in the NFL ........ meaning he doesnt really have a RBBC to worry about ( C.Johnson / L.White --- D.Williams / J.Stewart ... yada yada yada

Forte will never have 150 yard rushing games

but if he gets 80 yards and catches 5 balls for 60 and he gets 2 td's ... he is a top 10 fantasy Rb without question

he is that guy you dont have to reply totally on rushing yards alone ..... he can have a bad day rushing .. but save the whole day by having a 80 yard catching game and 2 td's ..

M.Turner for example is a top 10 Rb .. BUT if he has a bad day running the ball .. its over .. becasue the guy cant catch a cold

if your going only on rushing yards . the guy is very very overrated . and would not be a top 10

Right, but...1. Who says he's going to get 380 touches every year? If his touches drop to average levels, his value will drop too.

2. How many RBs who average less than 4 YPC keep their starting job? He could very well be a backup 2-3 years from now if he doesn't improve.

I have no problem with Forte in the top 10 of a redraft league. I think he's a terrible pick there in dynasty though.

This is amazingly shortsighted.Emmitt Smith was under 4 YPC at the ages of 21 and 27.

Walter Payton at 21 and 27.

Curtis Martin at 23, 25, and 27.

Jerome Bettis at 22, 23, 26, 27, and 28.

Marshall Faulk at 22 and 23.

Marcus Allen at 23, 26, 27 and 28.

Edge at 24, 28, and 29.

Franco Harris at 23, 26, 27, and 28.

Thurman Thomas at 27, 28, and 29.

LT2 at 22, 25, and 29.

I am not saying Forte will ever belong in the list above. The run blocking on the Bears was sub par and Forte often gained more yards than were given to him. He isn't a gamebreaker but he has enough wiggle to make tacklers miss in space, he finishes runs to gain extra yards, and he is a very good receiver who can even be split out wide. His under 4 YPC is explained by the talent around him much as future hall of famers often have seasons under 4 YPC because of their teams.