bcr8f
Footballguy
If he takes 40% of the carries Forte's value will drop though.
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[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
loose circuits
Footballguy
the only reason any of those guys were solid fantasy contributors is because of the workload. If they wouldn't have got the carries, then they never would have been any good...
nice list and great posting. This completely blows EBF's theory out of the water
EBF
Footballguy
No, it actually doesn't. Showing that a handful of Hall of Fame players averaged 4.0 YPC at some point in their career doesn't prove anything. For every guy like LaDainian Tomlinson, there are several guys like Anthony Thomas, Wali Lundy, and Karim Abdul-Jabar who averaged below 4.0 YPC and faded into obscurity. The number of backs who put up a low YPC and go on to achieve Hall of Fame careers is probably dwarfed by the number of backs who put up a low YPC and wash out of the league. All the poster above has done is pick the examples that prove his point while ignoring the ones that don't. This is sort of like finding ten poker hands where 2-2 beats A-A, and using those ten hands to "prove" that 2-2 is a better hand than A-A. It's an empty, worthless argument. FWIW, Bettis, Tomlinson, Faulk, Payton, Allen, and James were all top 10 draft picks. Emmitt and Franco were first round picks. Of the players he listed, only Martin and Thomas were 2nd+ round picks. Just something to think about.
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loose circuits
Footballguy
so basically what you are saying is good and bad players average below 4 ypc. lets just throw that out, since we don't know where Forte falls. It's too early in his career to judge him.then your argument is that he's not a 1st round pick. Plenty of non-1st round picks have had great careers (you can admit that). so that really doesn't lead us anywhere.So where do we turn? I say the tape. I watched a lot of Chicago games and was impressed with what Forte brings to the table. He is as solid as they come. I suggest you get some tape on him before starting these ridiculous threads. He made the most of what he had, I don't think anyone can argue that. Any back that faces 9 in the box isn't going to light the world on fire.I have to admit before the season, I wasn't as high on Forte as some. I thought he had a chance to be good, but I stayed away from him because of the awful situation in Chicago. I never thought it could breed the a top 5 back. Forte obviously proved me wrong.So based on his combine, ypc, and draft position, we are supposed to downgrade him? That's ridiculous
loose circuits
Footballguy
yeah, cause there situations are so similar
EBF
Footballguy
It's a pretty simple argument.
- He didn't have a great rookie year (lots of yards, but low YPC and no big plays)
- He wasn't a high draft pick (wasn't thought to be a special player entering the league)
- He isn't a great athlete (doesn't have elite athletic measurables)
There's no objective evidence to suggest that he's an elite player, yet he'll be a top 10 pick in every dynasty draft this year.
He doesn't deserve to go that high. If you draft him at his current cost, you're paying for the upside without factoring in the significant probability of him fading into mediocrity like Chris Brown, Joseph Addai, Julius Jones, or Anthony Thomas.
- He didn't have a great rookie year (lots of yards, but low YPC and no big plays)
- He wasn't a high draft pick (wasn't thought to be a special player entering the league)
- He isn't a great athlete (doesn't have elite athletic measurables)
There's no objective evidence to suggest that he's an elite player, yet he'll be a top 10 pick in every dynasty draft this year.
He doesn't deserve to go that high. If you draft him at his current cost, you're paying for the upside without factoring in the significant probability of him fading into mediocrity like Chris Brown, Joseph Addai, Julius Jones, or Anthony Thomas.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
obxlegends
Footballguy
I agree. The Bears should of learned from their past mistakes. Walter Payton averaged only 3.5 yard per carry his rookie season and we all saw how that turned out!EBF said:
On a serious note I see the logic behind EBF's post, but one season does not make a career. I'll need a bigger test sample before I revoke anyone's "fantasy football license."
EBF
Footballguy
The fact that people find that statement shocking just demonstrates the degree to which a fantasy football lens colors one's perception of NFL performance. After Ben Roethlisberger's impressive rookie season, virtually no one had him ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB. People looked at his paltry yardage/TD totals and concluded that he wasn't a good fantasy prospect. I argued otherwise because I looked at his per-throw averages and realized that he was capable of putting up nice stats if his number of pass attempts increased. A couple years later that's exactly what happened. Ben still isn't an elite FF option, but he was a great investment if you bought him back then when no one thought he could be a FF starter. This reminds me of that situation because, once again, people are only looking at the yardage/TD totals without looking at HOW the player arrived at those totals. Forte finished third among NFL RBs in total yards, but of the 24 RBs with 200+ carries last season, only 5 had a lower YPC average. He ranked among the bottom half of NFL starters in YPC. So while his end of season yardage totals make it look like he had a great season, the reality is that he was a mediocre performer who benefited from a huge number of touches. It's easy to cite the poor supporting cast, but as I mentioned earlier in this thread, Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson averaged 4.1 and 3.8 YPC in their Chicago careers respectively. If Forte is significantly better than those guys, it doesn't show in his statistics.
boubucarow
Footballguy
How many Bears games did you watch? The only mention of watching Forte is that you thought he was okay with little else in description. In no way do I think that Forte is an elite talent in the ADP mode and would never argue that. But I have yet to see arguments based on what you have seen, instead we get YPC, 2nd Round, and measureables as the reasons for your lack of faith in his talent.Other than the lack of breakaway speed that many long term productive runners lacked, what do you not see in him that would make him a back not to take in the 1st round of a dynasty draft?The fact that people find that statement shocking just demonstrates the degree to which a fantasy football lens colors one's perception of NFL performance. After Ben Roethlisberger's impressive rookie season, virtually no one had him ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB. People looked at his paltry yardage/TD totals and concluded that he wasn't a good fantasy prospect. I argued otherwise because I looked at his per-throw averages and realized that he was capable of putting up nice stats if his number of pass attempts increased. A couple years later that's exactly what happened. Ben still isn't an elite FF option, but he was a great investment if you bought him back then when no one thought he could be a FF starter. This reminds me of that situation because, once again, people are only looking at the yardage/TD totals without looking at HOW the player arrived at those totals. Forte finished third among NFL RBs in total yards, but of the 24 RBs with 200+ carries last season, only 5 had a lower YPC average. He ranked among the bottom half of NFL starters in YPC. So while his end of season yardage totals make it look like he had a great season, the reality is that he was a mediocre performer who benefited from a huge number of touches. It's easy to cite the poor supporting cast, but as I mentioned earlier in this thread, Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson averaged 4.1 and 3.8 YPC in their Chicago careers respectively. If Forte is significantly better than those guys, it doesn't show in his statistics.WTF?
Football Jones
Footballguy
I try to simplify things when gauging value. What do I see with my eyes? That's the question people should ask themselves (& often don't). My eyes tell me Matt Forte is a premier talent...whether he's on the Bears or any other team. This guy will be a good FF RB for a long, long time, IMO.
Barring injury (& he certainly seems like he's durable), Forte will be a perennial top-10 RB (maybe top-5 in PPR leagues). I'll eat my dirty shorts if he stays healthy & fails to finish in the top-10 any given season irregardless of format (for the foreseeable future).
Barring injury (& he certainly seems like he's durable), Forte will be a perennial top-10 RB (maybe top-5 in PPR leagues). I'll eat my dirty shorts if he stays healthy & fails to finish in the top-10 any given season irregardless of format (for the foreseeable future).
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MAC_32
Footballguy
If this were anyone else other than EBF that began this thread I don't think there would be as much resistance as there is. I agree with most of what he's written.
ETA: I liked Forte coming out of school, just think he is being way over valued by most now.
ETA: I liked Forte coming out of school, just think he is being way over valued by most now.
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two_dollars
Footballguy
The argueing against Forte is clearly being made by people who didn't watch his games. Those who watched the Bears and follow the Bears, know this kid is the real deal. Given what he had to work with I'm very suprised he was even able to do what he did.
loose circuits
Footballguy
these are great questions, and what I'm wondering too.bottomline is EBF had him at 20something in his rookie rankings last year (the same ones that had many disappointing WR's ranked ahead of solid RB's and were so awful they seemed to completely disappear), and I think this thread is a bad attempt to justify previous misconceptions. At that time, he said this wasn't that great of RB class. He talks about draft pedigree, but fails to realize that some teams could have others in different spots. For example, the Bears may have considred Forte a 1st round talent considering what he accomplished in college, his size/speed combo, hands, and other intangibles, but realized he would slip to the early 2nd cause of the backs ahead of him. I wonder if Rice, Smith, or Charles had the season Forte had, he would be singing the same tune? I think he may be confusing draft pedigree with his evaluation. Because as far as I"m concerned early 2nd could have made it to the 1st depending on the needs of teams and position the player plays. It's not like there was a bunch of RB's taken after the 1st round before Forte. Since Felix Jones was drafted ahead of him, am I supposed to value him more? I don't get it. The one thing that has the answers is the tape, and it's fairly obvious that EBF has not watched Forte run the rockhope this makes sense cause i just got back from the barHow many Bears games did you watch? The only mention of watching Forte is that you thought he was okay with little else in description. In no way do I think that Forte is an elite talent in the ADP mode and would never argue that. But I have yet to see arguments based on what you have seen, instead we get YPC, 2nd Round, and measureables as the reasons for your lack of faith in his talent.Other than the lack of breakaway speed that many long term productive runners lacked, what do you not see in him that would make him a back not to take in the 1st round of a dynasty draft?The fact that people find that statement shocking just demonstrates the degree to which a fantasy football lens colors one's perception of NFL performance. After Ben Roethlisberger's impressive rookie season, virtually no one had him ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB. People looked at his paltry yardage/TD totals and concluded that he wasn't a good fantasy prospect. I argued otherwise because I looked at his per-throw averages and realized that he was capable of putting up nice stats if his number of pass attempts increased. A couple years later that's exactly what happened. Ben still isn't an elite FF option, but he was a great investment if you bought him back then when no one thought he could be a FF starter. This reminds me of that situation because, once again, people are only looking at the yardage/TD totals without looking at HOW the player arrived at those totals. Forte finished third among NFL RBs in total yards, but of the 24 RBs with 200+ carries last season, only 5 had a lower YPC average. He ranked among the bottom half of NFL starters in YPC. So while his end of season yardage totals make it look like he had a great season, the reality is that he was a mediocre performer who benefited from a huge number of touches. It's easy to cite the poor supporting cast, but as I mentioned earlier in this thread, Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson averaged 4.1 and 3.8 YPC in their Chicago careers respectively. If Forte is significantly better than those guys, it doesn't show in his statistics.
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loose circuits
Footballguy
loose circuits
Footballguy
I'm not sure what this means. I haven't been around the Shark Pool long enough to understand EBF's rep. What I have seen from him is his God Awful rankings from last year and now this thread.So you agree that Forte is the most overrated fantasy back ever? based on his 3.9 ypc and his "pre-draft" evaluation from who? He was in a great RB class which EBF said was not very good. It produced arguably some of the best rookie RB production we'll ever see. Between Forte, Johnson, Smith, and Slaton I'm not sure we'll ever see a rookie class like this. The same rookie class that EBF said was overrated. Amazing considring the top 3 did little (Stewart was the only contributor), but the depth stand strong.I personally feel that EBF is still trying to justify his ranking from last year. Should we still have Malcom Kelly, Andre Caldwell, and whoever else ranked high cause they passed EBF's pedigree test?
RBM
Footballguy
Im a die hard Bear fan. I watch every game they play twice. Forte had a GREAT season. He did everything you want a feature back to do. He runs, he blocks, he catches, he reads. The only thing I will say is that he wasnt great in short yardage, but that is more about the line being small and weak. I couldnt care less about his final numbers. The Bears are very lucky to have stolen this guy in the 2nd round. He really can do it all.
WTF?
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BearsFan
Footballguy
Same here. I saw every Bears game last season. Color me unimpressed with Forte.He's an average back getting a lot of touches currently.Im a die hard Bear fan. I watch every game they play twice. Forte had a GREAT season. He did everything you want a feature back to do. He runs, he blocks, he catches, he reads. The only thing I will say is that he wasnt great in short yardage, but that is more about the line being small and weak. I couldnt care less about his final numbers. The Bears are very lucky to have stolen this guy in the 2nd round. He really can do it all.
WTF?
Clearly this is the case. EBF loves to talk about how people get silly emotional ties to players. He's obviously tied to his rookie rankings, and wants to justify the mistakes he made. I see this all the time on the forum. Posters get "their guys", and will defend/hype them for years. Talking about where a guy was drafted after his rookie year is utterly moronic. People did that with Bush/MJD. No one is talking about how Brady was a 6th round pick. If the kid can play, he can play. Where he was drafted goes out the window after his first year. Yes a lot of studs are high picks. So if you only buy into 1st round RBs, are you playing it safe or are you missing opportunities?The whole idea that you can take a guys height, weight and draft slot and project his NFL career is laughable. Every NFL team has 1000x more variables, and they can't even find statistical meaning, beyond "watch the film". To claim that his YPC/draft slot can be used to determine his future NFL career. I'm not sure how you can even post it. Not only lacking a basic grasp of statistical analysis, it's cherry picking just to hold onto rookie draft rankings that went horribly wrong. Even after Chris Johnson/Forte got off to hot starts, you will told people to sell high. So not only did you not draft them, you're telling other people to bail on them. Now you want people to trade them away again. Dude, your rookie rankings sucked. Let them go. It will help your future FF success.
MAC_32
Footballguy
EBF seems to get a lot of flack from some portion of the shark pool whenever he states an unpopular opinion, especially when the subject of BMI is brought up. I saw one of his rankings sets bumped up not to long ago, they were pretty bad. However, to take one piece of information to create an opinion about someone's credibility would not be wise. He brings a lot of solid info to the table and puts out solid arguements for his points, whether they're popular or not. If I see EBF posting in a thread I usually open it up, I just begin to skim through it once others stop making counter arguements to him and instead just start spewing nonsense about BMI, his bad rankings from last year, etc. I don't recall EBF writing that he thought last year's RB class wasn't any good, but if he did, so be it. Have you ever been wrong before? I have. Could EBF be trying to justify his poor ranking of Forte? Maybe, I hope not, but he could be. I'm still going to read his posts as long as he's bringing the same quality info he's always brought to the table. I value that a hell of a lot more than a lot of the drivel that finds its way into these threads.Anyway, Forte, you're putting words into my mouth. Most over rated fantasy back ever? C'mon, you're better than that...I hope. Many believe Forte is a top 10 dynasty fantasy player, I strongly disagree. Coming out of school I thought he was a good but not great running back with potential (was way too impatient the times I watched him in school). In January/February I thought he was extremely under rated as many had him outside of the top 10 RB's in the class buried somewhere in day two, that changed come April and I believe the Bears took him about where he should've been taken. Living in Cleveland I get a lot of Chicago games (no NFC teams in the area), I saw an average RB. His line sucked, his QB was good until he hurt his ankle, the team's pass catchers were not good, Forte looked great compared to the others on his offense but how much is that really saying? He did the same things he did the few times I watched him play in school, he's big, he's fast, and he sees the field well. The one thing he seemed to add to his game is the pass catching element, which made him more valuable than I anticipated. There are lots of RB's out there that possess similar skills as Forte, he is easily replaceable. That's not saying he is going to be replaced this year next year or the year after that, I don't know what's going on in Chicago's front office, but that's a risk I am willing to let someone else take.loose circuits said:
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Thats funny, this thread has made me value Forte more.I was offered Forte in a PPR dynasty for Randy and 1.4. I was gonna counter with Randy and 1.11, but this thread scared me off from acquiring Forte.
loose circuits
Footballguy
I'm not trying to attack EBF's credibility. Simply pointing out that his 'pedigree theory' seems far fetched with Forte when you consider his rankings. An early 2nd round pick does not have weak 'pedigree' and many teams could have had him as a late 1stIt takes balls to put your rankings out there, and I'll give him credit he seems to spend plenty of time on it. Either way it definitely generates discussion which is why all come here...I"m not attacking him personally, just saying that he may have misjudged last years class at all.Pull up those rankings, he talks about being unimpressed with RB's. Although now I can't find them anywhere.Bottomline is I don't think Forte will be replaced anytime soon. Why would the Bears spend money or draft picks on a spot where they have decent depth (other Adrian is a great #3 RB) and Kevin Jones is a capable back-up/emergency starter? They need to focus on other areas for sure. The OL needs to be completely rebuilt outside of Williams and they need WR's badly. The defense also has some glaring holes that need to be replace. They will focus on building those positions in the next few yearsOne question, I do have for him. If Earl Bennett ends up being the answer as a complement for Hester and the offense resembles a decent passing game, then Forte averages 4.5 ypc, will that change his mind?
boubucarow
Footballguy
I honestly just want the answer to this question but here is what I saw watching every single Bears game.Forte lacks breakaway speed, elite acceleration, the ability to run through defenders, and the ability to put together multiple moves in short time period. He is not an elite standout in any of those important areas for a running back. His strengths are the ability to make one quick cut on nimble feet, he gains the extra yard after solid contact (falls forward so to speak), he has good patience and better vision, he is a very good pass blocker, he is a very good pass receiver with solid hands and the ability to be run simple routes split wide. He is a very tough back who often did more with plays than his blocking would have dictated gaining extra yards on a consistent basis. While he is not an elite talented running back, he is so solid that he probably has nothing to worry about in job security for a few years and the Bears of all teams will not be looking for a replacement. He can stay on the field in every situation and will always pad his stats with dump passes. The Bears are a run first team who showed last year that they will utilize all of Forte's talents. Barring injury which does concern me with his workload the last two years, he will be a solid FF contributor and a solid NFL running back for the next few years which is all we can ask from running backs in general.boubucarow said:How many Bears games did you watch? The only mention of watching Forte is that you thought he was okay with little else in description. In no way do I think that Forte is an elite talent in the ADP mode and would never argue that. But I have yet to see arguments based on what you have seen, instead we get YPC, 2nd Round, and measureables as the reasons for your lack of faith in his talent.Other than the lack of breakaway speed that many long term productive runners lacked, what do you not see in him that would make him a back not to take in the 1st round of a dynasty draft?EBF said:The fact that people find that statement shocking just demonstrates the degree to which a fantasy football lens colors one's perception of NFL performance. After Ben Roethlisberger's impressive rookie season, virtually no one had him ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB. People looked at his paltry yardage/TD totals and concluded that he wasn't a good fantasy prospect. I argued otherwise because I looked at his per-throw averages and realized that he was capable of putting up nice stats if his number of pass attempts increased. A couple years later that's exactly what happened. Ben still isn't an elite FF option, but he was a great investment if you bought him back then when no one thought he could be a FF starter. This reminds me of that situation because, once again, people are only looking at the yardage/TD totals without looking at HOW the player arrived at those totals. Forte finished third among NFL RBs in total yards, but of the 24 RBs with 200+ carries last season, only 5 had a lower YPC average. He ranked among the bottom half of NFL starters in YPC. So while his end of season yardage totals make it look like he had a great season, the reality is that he was a mediocre performer who benefited from a huge number of touches. It's easy to cite the poor supporting cast, but as I mentioned earlier in this thread, Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson averaged 4.1 and 3.8 YPC in their Chicago careers respectively. If Forte is significantly better than those guys, it doesn't show in his statistics.RBM said:EBF said:WTF?
EBF
Footballguy
If this was the case, wouldn't I be making the same thread about Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton? I was just as wrong about those guys last season (if not more so), yet I haven't said people should avoid them. The difference is that I actually think they had impressive rookie seasons whereas I think Forte had an average rookie season that looks impressive if you don't dig beneath the surface.billyjoe said:
I'm perfectly willing to "buy into" a player who wasn't a first round pick. For example, I'm extremely high on Eddie Royal. I think he's going to be a very good WR for a long time. What you have to understand is that I'm not impressed with Forte's rookie season. I look at it and I don't see anything special about it other than the high number of touches. He didn't have a high YPC and he didn't show a flair for making big plays. Other 2nd-3rd round RBs who became stars (MJD, Portis, Gore, Westbrook) had monster YPC averages as soon as they started getting a high number of carries. They showed a special ability that Forte hasn't demonstrated. Forte was touted as a mediocre prospect entering the league, he's a mediocre athlete on paper, and he had a mediocre rookie season. All of the signs point towards mediocrity, yet he's being valued as a superstar. It doesn't add up. He may eventually prove to be the real deal, but I think he represents a terrible gamble in the top 10 of a dynasty draft given what we know about him now.
geoff8695
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
I think one of the critical mistakes people make in evaluating Forte is assuming he's a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.
Make no mistake...Matt Forte is a superior athlete with superior skills. Even if I didn't know his combine numbers, the tape doesn't lie. He's going to be producing for a long time. In the end, tho, we play FF, & everything points toward Forte being a top FF RB for the foreseeable future. Forte is going to help a lot of teams win FF games, & in turn, some championships (especially in PPR leagues). Sometimes people forget we play FF.
All that said, it would be boring if everybody had the same thoughts. I appreciate everyone's opinion. Still, I honestly can't see what's not to like.
Make no mistake...Matt Forte is a superior athlete with superior skills. Even if I didn't know his combine numbers, the tape doesn't lie. He's going to be producing for a long time. In the end, tho, we play FF, & everything points toward Forte being a top FF RB for the foreseeable future. Forte is going to help a lot of teams win FF games, & in turn, some championships (especially in PPR leagues). Sometimes people forget we play FF.
All that said, it would be boring if everybody had the same thoughts. I appreciate everyone's opinion. Still, I honestly can't see what's not to like.
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Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
I've always been told, 'information is only as good as were you get it from'. After looking at the drafts EBF did last year, yes only one year. This does not hold well. So sorry to say I have moved on from taking anything 'As knowledgeable coming from EBF'. Maybe 2009 will be different for EBF, but maybe things are what they are.I think the mistake people make is assuming Forte is a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.Make no mistake...Matt Forte is a superior athlete with superior skills. Even if I didn't know his combine numbers, the tape doesn't lie. In the end, tho, we play FF, & everything points toward Forte being a top FF RB for a long time. Sometimes people forget we play FF. All that said, it would be boring if everybody had the same thoughts. I appreciate everyone's opinion. Still, I honestly can't see what's not to like.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Well, I meant what's not to like about Forte, but like I said, it would be boring if everyone had the same opinions. Right?I've always been told, 'information is only as good as were you get it from'. After looking at the drafts EBF did last year, yes only one year. This does not hold well. So sorry to say I have moved on from taking anything 'As knowledgeable coming from EBF'. Maybe 2009 will be different for EBF, but maybe things are what they are.I think the mistake people make is assuming Forte is a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.Make no mistake...Matt Forte is a superior athlete with superior skills. Even if I didn't know his combine numbers, the tape doesn't lie. In the end, tho, we play FF, & everything points toward Forte being a top FF RB for a long time. Sometimes people forget we play FF. All that said, it would be boring if everybody had the same thoughts. I appreciate everyone's opinion. Still, I honestly can't see what's not to like.
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
Forte isn't the overrated one here.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?
identikit
Footballguy
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I'd disagree with that. The three drills that seem to have the most bearing on a RB's prospects are the 40, the vertical leap, and the broad jump. Guys like Donald Brown, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and LaDainian Tomlinson qualify as superior athletes when you look at these numbers:Donald BrownEverything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?
40 - 4.48
Vertical Leap - 41.5"
Broad Jump - 10'5"
Chris Johnson
40 - 4.24
Vertical Leap - 35"
Broad Jump - 10'10"
Jonathan Stewart
40 - 4.46
Vertical Leap - 36.5"
Broad Jump - 10'8"
Adrian Peterson
40 - 4.40
Vertical Leap - 38.5"
Broad Jump - 10'7"
Reggie Bush
40 - 4.37
Vertical Leap - 40.5"
Broad Jump - 10'8"
LaDainian Tomlinson
40 - 4.46
Vertical Leap - 40.5"
Broad Jump - 10'4"
Forte doesn't stack up with these guys in any area except speed.
Matt Forte
40 - 4.44
Vertical Leap - 33"
Broad Jump - 9'10"
These are pretty pedestrian numbers. I've been studying combine results for a few years and I've noticed that tall players tend to do better than shorter players in the broad jump (presumably because they have longer legs), so Forte's 9'10" mark stands out as pretty poor. The verts were down by about 1-2" at the 2008 combine, so his 33" jump may have been closer to 35" in a normal year, but it's still at the bottom end of what you usually see from elite RB prospects. He certainly appears to be a notch or two below the elite athletes at the position. Donald Brown had a vastly superior combine.
Mediocre combine numbers aren't a death sentence, but when you combine them with a mediocre pedigree and mediocre performance on the football field, you have a pretty unattractive picture.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I guess we define workout warrior's differently. I define a workout warrior as someone who looks like a great football player in shorts and a t shirt but not so much on the field, i.e. Chris Henry. I think Donald Brown looked like a great football player in shorts and a t shirt and (from what I saw of him) on the football field too. Forte and Donald Brown are not close to the same player, not sure how one can compare the two. Forte's a big and fast RB that doesn't do anything great but doesn't seem to do anything poorly either (still not sure where your 'superior' classifications come from). Donald Brown is a smaller, shifty back that makes people miss. In fact, I think a guy like him would be a perfect compliment to Forte.Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?
Football Jones
Footballguy
Not sure what else we can discuss, LOL. I think this thread has run its course.
Forte has comparable athletic skills to the elite backs. Not only that, he shows more instincts than even a guy like Adrian Peterson. He's also a much better pass-catcher.
I use Peterson because many feel he's the epitome of the perfect NFL RB...yet Forte put him to shame in PPR leagues last year (& will do so again this season barring injury). Forte even outperformed Peterson in my non-PPR league. I can't say it enough. We play FF.
Forte has comparable athletic skills to the elite backs. Not only that, he shows more instincts than even a guy like Adrian Peterson. He's also a much better pass-catcher.
I use Peterson because many feel he's the epitome of the perfect NFL RB...yet Forte put him to shame in PPR leagues last year (& will do so again this season barring injury). Forte even outperformed Peterson in my non-PPR league. I can't say it enough. We play FF.
Football Jones
Footballguy
It isn't that complicated. Brown = workout warrior at the combine. Most everybody would agree to that, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & had a better 3-cone. My point is they're very comparable athletically. One is a rare athlete, but the other isn't? It doesn't make any sense.As far as Donald Brown performing in the NFL, we don't know what he can do yet. However, we do know Matt Forte can produce. In the end, tho, this argument will be settled on the field. There's absolutely no question in my mind Matt Forte will continue to be a top FF RB barring injury, but I can't prove it until after the '09 season.I guess we define workout warrior's differently. I define a workout warrior as someone who looks like a great football player in shorts and a t shirt but not so much on the field, i.e. Chris Henry. I think Donald Brown looked like a great football player in shorts and a t shirt and (from what I saw of him) on the football field too. Forte and Donald Brown are not close to the same player, not sure how one can compare the two. Forte's a big and fast RB that doesn't do anything great but doesn't seem to do anything poorly either (still not sure where your 'superior' classifications come from). Donald Brown is a smaller, shifty back that makes people miss. In fact, I think a guy like him would be a perfect compliment to Forte.Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?
BTW, I knew this thread wouldn't end well, LOL.
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loose circuits
Footballguy
you give no credence to the 3 cone drill? I'd say that's just as important as anything else. Measures agility, and ability to get in and out of breaks, cut, etc...I'd disagree with that. The three drills that seem to have the most bearing on a RB's prospects are the 40, the vertical leap, and the broad jump. Guys like Donald Brown, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and LaDainian Tomlinson qualify as superior athletes when you look at these numbers:Donald BrownEverything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?
40 - 4.48
Vertical Leap - 41.5"
Broad Jump - 10'5"
Chris Johnson
40 - 4.24
Vertical Leap - 35"
Broad Jump - 10'10"
Jonathan Stewart
40 - 4.46
Vertical Leap - 36.5"
Broad Jump - 10'8"
Adrian Peterson
40 - 4.40
Vertical Leap - 38.5"
Broad Jump - 10'7"
Reggie Bush
40 - 4.37
Vertical Leap - 40.5"
Broad Jump - 10'8"
LaDainian Tomlinson
40 - 4.46
Vertical Leap - 40.5"
Broad Jump - 10'4"
Forte doesn't stack up with these guys in any area except speed.
Matt Forte
40 - 4.44
Vertical Leap - 33"
Broad Jump - 9'10"
These are pretty pedestrian numbers. I've been studying combine results for a few years and I've noticed that tall players tend to do better than shorter players in the broad jump (presumably because they have longer legs), so Forte's 9'10" mark stands out as pretty poor. The verts were down by about 1-2" at the 2008 combine, so his 33" jump may have been closer to 35" in a normal year, but it's still at the bottom end of what you usually see from elite RB prospects. He certainly appears to be a notch or two below the elite athletes at the position. Donald Brown had a vastly superior combine.
Mediocre combine numbers aren't a death sentence, but when you combine them with a mediocre pedigree and mediocre performance on the football field, you have a pretty unattractive picture.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't put a lot of stock in the three cone drill because it doesn't seem to say much about a player's athletic ability. Many of the best backs in the game had middling times in that drill. The way I've approached it historically is that it's virtually irrelevant as long as the player runs about 7.2 seconds or faster. I'm willing to reconsider that stance if someone can show that it's an important piece of the puzzle.
MAC_32
Footballguy
So you're saying you've watched Donald Brown on the field and don't think he's that good, yes?Big and fast are two good qualities for any NFL player to possess, but they aren't the only ones. What else about Forte stands out to you?It isn't that complicated. Brown = workout warrior at the combine. Most everybody would agree to that, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & had a better 3-cone. My point is they're very comparable athletically. One is a rare athlete, but the other isn't? It doesn't make any sense.As far as Donald Brown performing in the NFL, we don't know what he can do yet. However, we do know Matt Forte can produce. In the end, tho, this argument will be settled on the field. There's absolutely no question in my mind Matt Forte will continue to be a top FF RB barring injury, but I can't prove it until after the '09 season.I guess we define workout warrior's differently. I define a workout warrior as someone who looks like a great football player in shorts and a t shirt but not so much on the field, i.e. Chris Henry. I think Donald Brown looked like a great football player in shorts and a t shirt and (from what I saw of him) on the football field too. Forte and Donald Brown are not close to the same player, not sure how one can compare the two. Forte's a big and fast RB that doesn't do anything great but doesn't seem to do anything poorly either (still not sure where your 'superior' classifications come from). Donald Brown is a smaller, shifty back that makes people miss. In fact, I think a guy like him would be a perfect compliment to Forte.Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?
BTW, I knew this thread wouldn't end well, LOL.
Again, you, and others, are missing the point of my argument, and others too. Redraft-speaking Forte may be a top 10 RB again in 2009, if the makeup of the Chicago offense does not change there's every reason to believe he can match or come close to matching his 2008 season. It's beyond 2009 that concerns me. I want my dynasty franchise player to be a top 10 guy for more than just one season, I think there are better risks available than Forte to be that guy.
Football Jones
Footballguy
The 3-cone, 40, vertical, broad jump, etc, are all tools. None are big indicators of success (in & of themselves). You use them to help form the big picture. A player's performance on the field is, & always will be, the best indicator of success. That said, you have to take into account the quality of competition in college.
Obviously, it's not an exact science. NFL teams miss all the time. These differing evaluations are why FF enthusiasts get so wrapped up in their arguments. It's also fun to "pretend" to be a GM when we play FF (especially in dynasty leagues).
It's what FF is all about (evaluation).
Obviously, it's not an exact science. NFL teams miss all the time. These differing evaluations are why FF enthusiasts get so wrapped up in their arguments. It's also fun to "pretend" to be a GM when we play FF (especially in dynasty leagues).
It's what FF is all about (evaluation).
Football Jones
Footballguy
I understand what you're saying, but Forte is a natural-born runner with loose hips, plus speed, & good vision. He's also an outstanding pass-catcher & good blocker. Yes, I believe Matt Forte will be a top-10 FF RB for the foreseeable future (several more seasons at the very least).So you're saying you've watched Donald Brown on the field and don't think he's that good, yes?Big and fast are two good qualities for any NFL player to possess, but they aren't the only ones. What else about Forte stands out to you?It isn't that complicated. Brown = workout warrior at the combine. Most everybody would agree to that, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & had a better 3-cone. My point is they're very comparable athletically. One is a rare athlete, but the other isn't? It doesn't make any sense.As far as Donald Brown performing in the NFL, we don't know what he can do yet. However, we do know Matt Forte can produce. In the end, tho, this argument will be settled on the field. There's absolutely no question in my mind Matt Forte will continue to be a top FF RB barring injury, but I can't prove it until after the '09 season.I guess we define workout warrior's differently. I define a workout warrior as someone who looks like a great football player in shorts and a t shirt but not so much on the field, i.e. Chris Henry. I think Donald Brown looked like a great football player in shorts and a t shirt and (from what I saw of him) on the football field too. Forte and Donald Brown are not close to the same player, not sure how one can compare the two. Forte's a big and fast RB that doesn't do anything great but doesn't seem to do anything poorly either (still not sure where your 'superior' classifications come from). Donald Brown is a smaller, shifty back that makes people miss. In fact, I think a guy like him would be a perfect compliment to Forte.Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?
BTW, I knew this thread wouldn't end well, LOL.
Again, you, and others, are missing the point of my argument, and others too. Redraft-speaking Forte may be a top 10 RB again in 2009, if the makeup of the Chicago offense does not change there's every reason to believe he can match or come close to matching his 2008 season. It's beyond 2009 that concerns me. I want my dynasty franchise player to be a top 10 guy for more than just one season, I think there are better risks available than Forte to be that guy.
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