[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (2 Viewers)

[loose circuits]

So based on his combine, ypc, and draft position, we are supposed to downgrade him?

It seems rather logical to me. There is no question EBF wanted to catch people's attention and calling Forte THE most overrated player has caused more of a fight than his reasoning should have.Look at a player like Frank Gore - he did not play on a good team nor did he have a good o-line. Yet he averaged 4.8 in his first season splitting time with Barlow. In his first full season (2006), he averaged 5.4...the Niners were not a good team that year nor was their o-line anything special. In fact their entire offense was fairly lousy. I do think Forte should be ranked in the top ten rb's going forward - but that's not so much because he's clearly a stud as much as there isn't anybody else who deserves the spot. There are a handful of rb's I'd love to have on my team - Forte isn't a guy I'll go out of my way to acquire. If he ends up on my team then so be as I have little doubt he'll be serviceable for awhile longer. I just don't see the upside with Forte. Let's say you draft him as the #5 rb...how many of you think he has a reasonable shot of finishing higher than that? I think that's his absolute ceiling and I view it unlikely he'll hit that mark. So you draft a guy who's absolute upside is where he's being drafted? That's absolutely horrible value. At least with a guy like SJax or ADP being drafted that high they've shown they're capable of putting up monster games. I think some people put too much stock in where a player was drafted but let's not kid ourselves - there IS a reason players are drafted where they're drafted. No method is foolproof but we shouldn't take the exceptions to the rule like Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, Rod Smith, Curtis Martin and toss those names about to prove that where a guy was drafted is meaningless. Does anybody think Reggie Bush would still be getting the ball force fed to him had he been a later round pick? He sure as heck hasn't blown away everybody on the football field yet because he was such a high pick he's going to get more rope before NO phases him out. A second round pick who looked good (but not special in any measureable statistic) isn't exactly an irreplaceable cog in the Chicago machine.And finally, I think many (if not all) would agree a huge part of a player's value (especially rb's) stem from their situations. What is so appealing about Forte's situation? Are the Bears a young team? Do they have a good offensive line? Other quality offensive weapons to take attention away from Forte? A qb who can march this team up and down the field in the blink of an eye while setting him up for gimmie td plunges? He doesn't break long runs, the offense is putrid, the offensive line is even worse...and his appeal is what exactly?

Frank Gore is not a fair comparison. It is much easier to have a high ypc when your carries are limited

To give you the numbers for Bob's comparison above, which was first full-season: Gore 2006: 312 carries, 19.5 per game, 5.4ypc, 61 receptions, 9th in league in carriesForte 2008: 316 carries, 19.8 per game, 3.9ypc, 63 receptions, 4th in league in carriesYou'd be better served comparing later years. Gore averaged 16.7 carries in 2007, 17.1 in 2008. That being said, saying that his "carries are limited" when the difference is basically 3 a game isn't really proving anything. Heck, you'd be even better served noting Gore's YPC (4.2, 4.3) the last two years and saying that it's not that far off from Forte. But saying it isn't a fair comparison..come on, now.

I was talking about comparing their rookie seasons. Gore's season in 2006 impressed me for sure, but I will always be concerned about injury with him

 

[Football Jones]

One more thing I want to add. Lots of elite RBs have had lower YPC averages than Forte's. LT averaged 3.6 his rookie year, for instance.

Throw YPC out the window when you're only talking about a single season. Even in multiple seasons, YPC isn't a great argument. Too many variables. FF is about production...& Matt Forte produces.

BTW, there is one player I tend to look at his YPC as telling, tho. Reggie Bush has had a mediocre YPC (below Forte's 3.9 each of his three seasons) despite a strong offense & limited carries (meaning he didn't have even a decent YPC despite running plays especially designed for his skill set...I'd hate to see his YPC if he was taking virtually all the carries like Forte). I could understand using the YPC argument concerning Bush, but not Forte.

Anyway, just wanted to bring up the YPC thing. I generally believe that argument is usually pretty weak unless there's specific conditions in place.

 

[EBF]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability.

Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

 

[Football Jones]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability. Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Mid-2nd is a pretty decent pedigree. As far as athletic ability, there's countless top RBs who don't have sick athletic ability (Michael Turner, Lynch, Emmitt, Priest, & many, many others). Forte is an above-average athlete. He's actually a pretty dang good athlete. Certainly good enough to excel.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability. Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on is "pedigree and athletic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.Edited for spelling and adding pedigree to the quote.

 

[Stitch]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability. Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on is "pedigree and athlethic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.

 

[identikit]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability. Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on ins "athlethic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.

And we shouldn't leave out 'draft pedigree'.EBF has more escape routes than a James Bond movie.

 

[EBF]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability. Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on is "pedigree and athletic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.Edited for spelling and adding pedigree to the quote.

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?The 3.9 YPC?The 2 plays of 20+ yards out of 380 touches?If he was ripping up the league, I wouldn't be concerned about his pedigree or his lack of ideal athleticism.What worries me is that he was considered a mediocre talent entering the league, he's a mediocre athlete on paper, and he had a mediocre rookie year. All signs point towards mediocre, yet we're to believe that he's a top 10 dynasty player?

 

[stevegamer]

One of Forte's strengths is that he is not a liability in the following ways,all of which cause backs to ride the pine, from where they often don't return:

Pass-blocking

Pass-receiving

Fumbling

Inability to convert first downs

To me, he seems to have no glaring holes as a NFL RB, he's average or above-average at everything. While some people like to see singature strengths, having no weaknesses is its own strength.

 

[stewartcjae]

I have to ask again, why dont you like Mcfadden?

There are objective reasons to like him, but my subjective opinion has always been that he's not very good. The track record of top 10 picks with good combine numbers is probably excellent, so I'm knowingly playing against the odds in the case of DMC.I don't have any problem with someone liking Forte as long as they acknowledge that it's a leap of faith based on their subjective opinion of his abilities rather than on the objective factors. None of the objective factors say he's a guy you should burn a top 10 dynasty pick on.

Glad to see your opinion of Forte was entirely objective.OK, so McFadden objectively looks good, but you don't subjectively like him so the combine numbers don't really count. Meanwhile, those of us who like Forte are being subjective, with the 1705 all purpose yards and the 12 TDs he scored irrelevant due to the low YPC and high number of carries. OK.

shouldnt this have ended the tread? You dont like DMC for whatever reason regardless of your "objective" facts, because you watched him play. Others like Forte for whatever reason regardless of your "objective" facts, because they have watched him play. They must feel like he is good enough to keep his current job. If he does, then he will continue to put up very good FF points.

 

[Football Jones]

The easy way to tell how what the NFL thinks of Forte is to imagine him in the upcoming draft. If he was, he'd be the first RB taken & a top-10 pick. Matt Forte simply has no weaknesses. None.

BTW, I went back & watched 3 of his games just to refresh my memory. The kid is the real deal if there ever was one. Period.

 

[AnonymousBob]

How many of you put much stock into FootballOutsider's way of ranking players? He wasn't ranked so highly based upon their breakdown of last years' stats...which ties in very well with EBF's statement that he was good simply because he got loads of carries and not because he was anything special.

 

[Chunky Soup]

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?What worries me is that he was considered a mediocre talent entering the league, he's a mediocre athlete on paper, and he had a mediocre rookie year. All signs point towards mediocre, yet we're to believe that he's a top 10 dynasty player?

Many people viewed him as a dark horse to look out for coming out of the draft. What did he do? Left Kevin Jones without a job while posting RB1 numbers for the (at least) first half of the season. And no, that's not top 12 RB numbers. That's #1 overall RB numbers, at least in my league for quite a few weeks.He had what people considered a questionable offensive line, and was on a team with no passing offense.He finished with over 1700 total yards and 12 TDs.How many rookies do this? Not many, and certainly the ones that do should be withheld from "overrated" before they start their second season.I guess after totally blowing the CJ stuff last year, this is what you're trying to do to get your credibility back. After that debacle, now you say "I revised my system, that won't happen again" (almost exactly what you said), and you're hoping you can prove to people that you have a better system when you bump this thread in a few months.NFL players have a high bust rate from year to year, so it wouldn't be all that surprising if he doesn't do as well this year. However, that's no indication that you had a good prediction. You really have no good evidence to suggest he'll bust, just like you had no real evidence to suggest that CJ will bust.I wish that the Shark Pool wasn't a place where people tried to make bold predictions over and over -- although, if you're going to do it, either have fun and have zero evidence, or have great evidence. With CJ and now Forte, you don't fall into either category.

 

[Burning Sensation]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability. Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on is "pedigree and athletic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.Edited for spelling and adding pedigree to the quote.

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?The 3.9 YPC?The 2 plays of 20+ yards out of 380 touches?If he was ripping up the league, I wouldn't be concerned about his pedigree or his lack of ideal athleticism.What worries me is that he was considered a mediocre talent entering the league, he's a mediocre athlete on paper, and he had a mediocre rookie year. All signs point towards mediocre, yet we're to believe that he's a top 10 dynasty player?

Backs strive for a 4.0 ypc, so that's .1 off that mark. Forte seems to be pretty good in all phases of RB play. Not great, but good. You're always too hung up on body types, and athletic ability. I bet if you ask Lovie Smith whether Forte is a good RB or not (off the record), I'm sure his opinion will surely differ from yours. I have no horse in this race, as I don't own Forte in any league, but I do think he looked good when he ripped off that 50+ yard td against my Colts. He also seems to have good burst at the line of scrimmage, and he's not a liability in the passing game, both blocking and receiving. To me he seems like a pretty good football player regardless of your so called definition of what constitutes a good football player.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This thread is very entertaining. I personally like Forte, but I think EBF has a valid point about his performance last season. Any time a RB has a lower YPC and a ton of touches because he's all the team has, there's a decent chance that if his touches decrease, so will his performance. Now maybe the team gets better and he gets a better YPC, even with less touches. But it's something to consider when drafting him in a dynasty league.

 

[squistion]

I have to ask again, why dont you like Mcfadden?

There are objective reasons to like him, but my subjective opinion has always been that he's not very good. The track record of top 10 picks with good combine numbers is probably excellent, so I'm knowingly playing against the odds in the case of DMC.I don't have any problem with someone liking Forte as long as they acknowledge that it's a leap of faith based on their subjective opinion of his abilities rather than on the objective factors. None of the objective factors say he's a guy you should burn a top 10 dynasty pick on.

Glad to see your opinion of Forte was entirely objective.OK, so McFadden objectively looks good, but you don't subjectively like him so the combine numbers don't really count. Meanwhile, those of us who like Forte are being subjective, with the 1705 all purpose yards and the 12 TDs he scored irrelevant due to the low YPC and high number of carries. OK.

shouldnt this have ended the tread? You dont like DMC for whatever reason regardless of your "objective" facts, because you watched him play. Others like Forte for whatever reason regardless of your "objective" facts, because they have watched him play. They must feel like he is good enough to keep his current job. If he does, then he will continue to put up very good FF points.

I would have thought so, since he had no response to my post pointing out glaring inconsistencies in logic regarding his selective use of objective factors. Objective reasons count for Forte but don't count for DMC based on subjective factors EBF can't articulate.

 

[thehornet]

I haven't read this whole thread, but i would agree with the name of the thread. Forte is shockingly overrated. His value lies in the amount of looks he receives in the rushing and passing game. This isn't to say he's not good because he is very good. But expectatations need to be tempered. This guy is not a a top 10 RB or a first round pick in my book.

 

[corpcow]

The thing about Forte is that his floor seems to be very high. Sure there are other RB's with more talent and they will have more monster games compared to Forte, but Forte was consistent every game last year. In my league Forte was the only player to have 0 games where he scored less than 10 points during the 16 week fantasy season. The next closest player was LT who had 3 games below 10 points.

Forte's floor is pretty high barring injury. And he's already had a season in the top 5 of fantasy backs, so we know he is capable of doing it again. But what makes him such a good FF back to have is his floor looks to be quite high. I would be astounded if Forte isn't a top 10 RB next year, and there is reason to believe that he could be a top 10 RB for the next 2-3-4-5 years.

I think you're confusing consistency with having a high floor. The argument being made here is that his consistency was a result of the opportunity - and thus if that opportunity changes at all his floor is much lower than you might realize.

 

[corpcow]

This thread is very entertaining. I personally like Forte, but I think EBF has a valid point about his performance last season. Any time a RB has a lower YPC and a ton of touches because he's all the team has, there's a decent chance that if his touches decrease, so will his performance. Now maybe the team gets better and he gets a better YPC, even with less touches. But it's something to consider when drafting him in a dynasty league.

I think that's the crux of it. His YPC *may* increase in a better offense; his total touches are sure to decrease.Overrated doesn't mean worthless - it just means the market values him higher than his real value. The question is not whether or not you want him on your team, but whether you are willing to pay a top 5-10 overall price for him. I, for one, am not.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

 

[corpcow]

How many rookies do this? Not many, and certainly the ones that do should be withheld from "overrated" before they start their second season.

Uh, well, since there are relatively few who do this don't you think that fantasy owners might tend to overrate these rookie performances? And isn't that the whole point of this thread?Again, I think you guys are missing the point. No one is saying the guy's a bum - overrated just means his perceived value is higher than his likely actual value going forward. The question is, what could you get for him? If we're talking top 5 overall, would you rather have Michael Turner than Forte? I think I would. What about, say, Larry Fitzgerald? Again, I think I would take Larry. And in some cases, we're talking about Forte for these guys PLUS something else. That to me screams overrated.Each of you list your top 10 guys... assuming that, all else being equal, you would trade the guy below for the guy above. Where does Forte fall on that list? Most lists seem to put Forte above Chris Johnson. CJ had 1488 total yards and 10 TDs vs. Forte's 1715 and 12 TDs. He also did it in 1 fewer game, 65 fewer carries, and 20 fewer receptions. So, which would you rather have, straight up? Do you think it's more likely that CJ gets more carries or do you think it's more likely that Forte jumps from 3.9 to 4.9 YPC and stays as heavily involved in the passing game if they bring in WRs?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This thread is very entertaining. I personally like Forte, but I think EBF has a valid point about his performance last season. Any time a RB has a lower YPC and a ton of touches because he's all the team has, there's a decent chance that if his touches decrease, so will his performance. Now maybe the team gets better and he gets a better YPC, even with less touches. But it's something to consider when drafting him in a dynasty league.

I think that's the crux of it. His YPC *may* increase in a better offense; his total touches are sure to decrease.Overrated doesn't mean worthless - it just means the market values him higher than his real value. The question is not whether or not you want him on your team, but whether you are willing to pay a top 5-10 overall price for him. I, for one, am not.

 

[KellysHeroes]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

 

[stewartcjae]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability. Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on is "pedigree and athletic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.Edited for spelling and adding pedigree to the quote.

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?The 3.9 YPC?The 2 plays of 20+ yards out of 380 touches?If he was ripping up the league, I wouldn't be concerned about his pedigree or his lack of ideal athleticism.What worries me is that he was considered a mediocre talent entering the league, he's a mediocre athlete on paper, and he had a mediocre rookie year. All signs point towards mediocre, yet we're to believe that he's a top 10 dynasty player?

wAs Hoss said, 4ypc is pretty standard, so .1 off is not huge, plus other backs have shown that you can get sub 4ypc and still maintain your job. Its all about the situation.Also where are you getting the 2 plays of 20+?? Nfl.com has him at 8. Chris Johnson only had 9, although with fewer carries, but still 8 is better then 2. Many of those carries were short/goalline situations where L.White would be in.I also do not own him, but I watched him play. The guy is a good back. And his situation makes him an attractive FF rb. Unless they bring someone else in, or their offensive philosophy dramatically changes, Imo he does very similar next few years as he did this one.

 

[Burning Sensation]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

 

[Da Guru]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

Forte may be over rated, but as long as he gets 25 touches a game he will be a valuable FF player.

 

[Burning Sensation]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

Forte may be over rated, but as long as he gets 25 touches a game he will be a valuable FF player.

I agree that it is more likely that Fortes numbers are worse in 2009 than in 2008. That doesnt mean he is not worth a first round pick in initial dynasty drafts. When EBF shows me a list of 12 players that are safer bets in the first round, then he can tell me Forte is overrated. You will notice however, he wont do that, because it is IMPOSSIBLE to do.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

I agree that it is more likely that Fortes numbers are worse in 2009 than in 2008. That doesnt mean he is not worth a first round pick in initial dynasty drafts. When EBF shows me a list of 12 players that are safer bets in the first round, then he can tell me Forte is overrated. You will notice however, he wont do that, because it is IMPOSSIBLE to do.

Is it? Or is it just impossible to create a list of 12 that you agree with?I think corpcow is hitting the nail on the head: EBF is positing that Forte's perceived value is greater than his actual value. And judging from many of the posts in this thread, Forte's perceived value is definitely high.

 

[Fodasme69]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability.

Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on is "pedigree and athletic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.Edited for spelling and adding pedigree to the quote.

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?The 3.9 YPC?

The 2 plays of 20+ yards out of 380 touches?

If he was ripping up the league, I wouldn't be concerned about his pedigree or his lack of ideal athleticism.

What worries me is that he was considered a mediocre talent entering the league, he's a mediocre athlete on paper, and he had a mediocre rookie year. All signs point towards mediocre, yet we're to believe that he's a top 10 dynasty player?

wAs Hoss said, 4ypc is pretty standard, so .1 off is not huge, plus other backs have shown that you can get sub 4ypc and still maintain your job. Its all about the situation.

Also where are you getting the 2 plays of 20+?? Nfl.com has him at 8. Chris Johnson only had 9, although with fewer carries, but still 8 is better then 2. Many of those carries were short/goalline situations where L.White would be in.

I also do not own him, but I watched him play. The guy is a good back. And his situation makes him an attractive FF rb. Unless they bring someone else in, or their offensive philosophy dramatically changes, Imo he does very similar next few years as he did this one.

I see the 8 as well

 

[EBF]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

Yards per carry is something that's useful when evaluating RBs because almost every RB has the same goal with every single carry: get the most yards possible. Yards per catch is far less useful because it reflects usage as much as it reflects talent. Ashley Lelie has historically had a very high yards per catch. Wes Welker has historically had a very low yards per catch. This does not mean Lelie is better than Welker, but rather that he's used in a much different way (downfield threat vs. chain mover). Royal's yards per catch was low because he was used in a very similar fashion to Welker. Your Royal/Forte comparison is atrocious. Forte is a middling athlete with mediocre workout numbers. Royal is an athletic freak of nature who's faster than most cornerbacks and stronger than most linebackers.

 

[identikit]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability.

Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on is "pedigree and athletic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.Edited for spelling and adding pedigree to the quote.

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?The 3.9 YPC?

The 2 plays of 20+ yards out of 380 touches?

If he was ripping up the league, I wouldn't be concerned about his pedigree or his lack of ideal athleticism.

What worries me is that he was considered a mediocre talent entering the league, he's a mediocre athlete on paper, and he had a mediocre rookie year. All signs point towards mediocre, yet we're to believe that he's a top 10 dynasty player? :X

wAs Hoss said, 4ypc is pretty standard, so .1 off is not huge, plus other backs have shown that you can get sub 4ypc and still maintain your job. Its all about the situation.

Also where are you getting the 2 plays of 20+?? Nfl.com has him at 8. Chris Johnson only had 9, although with fewer carries, but still 8 is better then 2. Many of those carries were short/goalline situations where L.White would be in.

I also do not own him, but I watched him play. The guy is a good back. And his situation makes him an attractive FF rb. Unless they bring someone else in, or their offensive philosophy dramatically changes, Imo he does very similar next few years as he did this one.

I see the 8 as well

In EBF's subjective opinion, Forte only had 2....

 

[Chunky Soup]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

Yards per carry is something that's useful when evaluating RBs because almost every RB has the same goal with every single carry: get the most yards possible. Yards per catch is far less useful because it reflects usage as much as it reflects talent. Ashley Lelie has historically had a very high yards per catch. Wes Welker has historically had a very low yards per catch. This does not mean Lelie is better than Welker, but rather that he's used in a much different way (downfield threat vs. chain mover). Royal's yards per catch was low because he was used in a very similar fashion to Welker. Your Royal/Forte comparison is atrocious. Forte is a middling athlete with mediocre workout numbers. Royal is an athletic freak of nature who's faster than most cornerbacks and stronger than most linebackers.

It's useful for both positions. Just as you need to read beyond the stats for WR, you need to also for RB. On a team like Chicago, you're probably more likely to have lower YPC because the team has no passing game and teams can look for the run more often. DVOA comes into play here too.

 

[EBF]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

Yards per carry is something that's useful when evaluating RBs because almost every RB has the same goal with every single carry: get the most yards possible. Yards per catch is far less useful because it reflects usage as much as it reflects talent. Ashley Lelie has historically had a very high yards per catch. Wes Welker has historically had a very low yards per catch. This does not mean Lelie is better than Welker, but rather that he's used in a much different way (downfield threat vs. chain mover). Royal's yards per catch was low because he was used in a very similar fashion to Welker. Your Royal/Forte comparison is atrocious. Forte is a middling athlete with mediocre workout numbers. Royal is an athletic freak of nature who's faster than most cornerbacks and stronger than most linebackers.

It's useful for both positions. Just as you need to read beyond the stats for WR, you need to also for RB. On a team like Chicago, you're probably more likely to have lower YPC because the team has no passing game and teams can look for the run more often. DVOA comes into play here too.

I agree with this. The big difference for me is that it's pretty easy to inflate/deflate a WRs yards per catch through playcalling. If a guy is always running long routes, he's going to have a higher yards per catch. If a guy is always running short routes, he's going to have a lower yards per catch. You don't see this effect at RB because it's not really possible to call a "long" run play or a "short" run play. You hand the ball off and hope the guy breaks a long run.Situation definitely affects YPC, but 3.9 is still pretty suspect for a player who hasn't proven himself. If it was a guy like Portis who's a known quantity, you could look at that number and probably just conclude that he had a bad year. With an unknown like Forte, you really don't know what to make of that number. It might be low because of his situation or it might be low because he's just a mediocre talent. Given that he was a (relatively) late pick with (relatively) weak combine numbers, I don't see how you can assume that it wasn't a sign of things to come.

The easy response is to point to the situation, but we've seen plenty of backs excel on bad offenses.

 

[corpcow]

For what it's worth, here's a list of my top 10 overall dynasty guys:

1. ADP

2. MJD

3. Turner

4. S-Jax

5. Gore

6. Fitz

7. Chris Johnson

8. DeAngelo

9. Wayne

10. Boldin

If I owned Forte, I think I would take any of those guys straight up over him in almost any format. Thus, I think if he's put in the top 10 he's overrated.

AND, there are guys that I would probably prefer over him like Jonathan Stewart, Jacobs, Westbrook - especially if I could get a little something extra with them.

If you think otherwise, what's your list?

 

[Chunky Soup]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

Yards per carry is something that's useful when evaluating RBs because almost every RB has the same goal with every single carry: get the most yards possible. Yards per catch is far less useful because it reflects usage as much as it reflects talent. Ashley Lelie has historically had a very high yards per catch. Wes Welker has historically had a very low yards per catch. This does not mean Lelie is better than Welker, but rather that he's used in a much different way (downfield threat vs. chain mover). Royal's yards per catch was low because he was used in a very similar fashion to Welker. Your Royal/Forte comparison is atrocious. Forte is a middling athlete with mediocre workout numbers. Royal is an athletic freak of nature who's faster than most cornerbacks and stronger than most linebackers.

It's useful for both positions. Just as you need to read beyond the stats for WR, you need to also for RB. On a team like Chicago, you're probably more likely to have lower YPC because the team has no passing game and teams can look for the run more often. DVOA comes into play here too.

I agree with this. The big difference for me is that it's pretty easy to inflate/deflate a WRs yards per catch through playcalling. If a guy is always running long routes, he's going to have a higher yards per catch. If a guy is always running short routes, he's going to have a lower yards per catch. You don't see this effect at RB because it's not really possible to call a "long" run play or a "short" run play. You hand the ball off and hope the guy breaks a long run.Situation definitely affects YPC, but 3.9 is still pretty suspect for a player who hasn't proven himself. If it was a guy like Portis who's a known quantity, you could look at that number and probably just conclude that he had a bad year. With an unknown like Forte, you really don't know what to make of that number. It might be low because of his situation or it might be low because he's just a mediocre talent. Given that he was a (relatively) late pick with (relatively) weak combine numbers, I don't see how you can assume that it wasn't a sign of things to come.

The easy response is to point to the situation, but we've seen plenty of backs excel on bad offenses.

Why is 3.9 YPC suspect again? Have you ever taken a look at stats of Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Marcus Allen, LT (has been mentioned plenty in this thread)?

 

[Chunky Soup]

For what it's worth, here's a list of my top 10 overall dynasty guys:1. ADP2. MJD3. Turner4. S-Jax5. Gore6. Fitz7. Chris Johnson8. DeAngelo9. Wayne10. BoldinIf I owned Forte, I think I would take any of those guys straight up over him in almost any format. Thus, I think if he's put in the top 10 he's overrated.AND, there are guys that I would probably prefer over him like Jonathan Stewart, Jacobs, Westbrook - especially if I could get a little something extra with them.If you think otherwise, what's your list?

First, a lot depends on league rules (ie, PPR. Secondly, Boldin, Wayne and DeW? All have major question marks. FWIW, you continuously are pointing out what overrated means. I think we get it/already had it. Thanks. EBF in this thread has said:

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?

And the title of the thread is "The single most overrated player in FF".And so, I think this thread is a little deeper than answering a mere "is he overrated?" question.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability.

Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on is "pedigree and athletic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.Edited for spelling and adding pedigree to the quote.

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?The 3.9 YPC?

The 2 plays of 20+ yards out of 380 touches?

If he was ripping up the league, I wouldn't be concerned about his pedigree or his lack of ideal athleticism.

What worries me is that he was considered a mediocre talent entering the league, he's a mediocre athlete on paper, and he had a mediocre rookie year. All signs point towards mediocre, yet we're to believe that he's a top 10 dynasty player?

wAs Hoss said, 4ypc is pretty standard, so .1 off is not huge, plus other backs have shown that you can get sub 4ypc and still maintain your job. Its all about the situation.

Also where are you getting the 2 plays of 20+?? Nfl.com has him at 8. Chris Johnson only had 9, although with fewer carries, but still 8 is better then 2. Many of those carries were short/goalline situations where L.White would be in.

I also do not own him, but I watched him play. The guy is a good back. And his situation makes him an attractive FF rb. Unless they bring someone else in, or their offensive philosophy dramatically changes, Imo he does very similar next few years as he did this one.

I see the 8 as well

8 is correcthttp://subscribers.footballguys.com/player...5.php#pbp2008-1

 

[identikit]

Tomlinson was a top 5 pick though, so the scouts obviously recognized elite ability.

Forte doesn't have LT's pedigree or his insane athletic ability.

Before it was BMI, now the phrase you're hung up on is "pedigree and athletic ability". Whatever happened to just being a good football player.Edited for spelling and adding pedigree to the quote.

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?The 3.9 YPC?

The 2 plays of 20+ yards out of 380 touches?

If he was ripping up the league, I wouldn't be concerned about his pedigree or his lack of ideal athleticism.

What worries me is that he was considered a mediocre talent entering the league, he's a mediocre athlete on paper, and he had a mediocre rookie year. All signs point towards mediocre, yet we're to believe that he's a top 10 dynasty player?

wAs Hoss said, 4ypc is pretty standard, so .1 off is not huge, plus other backs have shown that you can get sub 4ypc and still maintain your job. Its all about the situation.

Also where are you getting the 2 plays of 20+?? Nfl.com has him at 8. Chris Johnson only had 9, although with fewer carries, but still 8 is better then 2. Many of those carries were short/goalline situations where L.White would be in.

I also do not own him, but I watched him play. The guy is a good back. And his situation makes him an attractive FF rb. Unless they bring someone else in, or their offensive philosophy dramatically changes, Imo he does very similar next few years as he did this one.

I see the 8 as well

8 is correcthttp://subscribers.footballguys.com/player...5.php#pbp2008-1

Gotta hand it to EBF, he doesn't let the facts deter him....He'll just refer to his own version, and dig in deeper.

 

[corpcow]

For what it's worth, here's a list of my top 10 overall dynasty guys:If I owned Forte, I think I would take any of those guys straight up over him in almost any format. Thus, I think if he's put in the top 10 he's overrated.AND, there are guys that I would probably prefer over him like Jonathan Stewart, Jacobs, Westbrook - especially if I could get a little something extra with them.If you think otherwise, what's your list?

First, a lot depends on league rules (ie, PPR. Secondly, Boldin, Wayne and DeW? All have major question marks.

That's fine - that's MY list for a non-PPR. That's where I have him. As I said, if you think otherwise then post your list. For my money, Boldin, Wayne and even Deangelo have less question marks than Forte which is why I have them higher - but then there's obviously never going to be one master list that we can all agree one.

FWIW, you continuously are pointing out what overrated means. I think we get it/already had it. Thanks. EBF in this thread has said:

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?

And the title of the thread is "The single most overrated player in FF".And so, I think this thread is a little deeper than answering a mere "is he overrated?" question.

I keep pointing it out because I don't think you guys already had it. You and others keep arguing whether he has talent, whether he's any good, and whether his numbers this past year were good - but that's not the point I'm making and it's not the point EBF made in his original post. As I said in my first post in the thread, we're having this discussion because people are putting him in this "special" category because of his numbers. He's being drafted as a top 10 dynasty prospect based on his rookie numbers, and my argument (and I think EBF's) is that those "special" numbers were largely a result of opportunity as opposed to talent. Obviously, he had enough talent to be a second round pick and to take advantage of the opportunity. I don't know whether he's "the single most overrated player in FF" - but putting him in the top 5-10 overall dynasty prospects certainly is worth of having this discussion. I put that list there is because I'm saying definitively that here are 10 players I would take ahead of him straight up (RB scarcity aside). Where do you have him?I should also point that that like I said I try to balance opportunity and talent but for dynasty purposes I definitely put more focus on talent over opportunity. Opportunity can change dramatically from year to year, while talent largely doesn't. (See, e.g., Taylor, Chester). In the end, I believe that the cream will rise to the top, and if I'm going to invest a lot in a top 10 cornerstone kind of guy, I'd rather go with the elite talent than the opportunity. I believe Forte is an above average talent, but not worthy of a top 10 pick. There aren't many others in the top 10 that I feel so strongly about... so he is certainly at least a candidate for most overrated in my mind.

 

[PranksterJD]

This thread really just needs to be closed. Its gone from a useful back-and-forth on Forte's value to the unabashed attacking of people who disagree. At this point the relevant information is here, and the debates have been made. Readers can make a choice to draft him top 10 or not. End it.

 

[EBF]

For what it's worth, here's a list of my top 10 overall dynasty guys:If I owned Forte, I think I would take any of those guys straight up over him in almost any format. Thus, I think if he's put in the top 10 he's overrated.AND, there are guys that I would probably prefer over him like Jonathan Stewart, Jacobs, Westbrook - especially if I could get a little something extra with them.If you think otherwise, what's your list?

First, a lot depends on league rules (ie, PPR. Secondly, Boldin, Wayne and DeW? All have major question marks.

That's fine - that's MY list for a non-PPR. That's where I have him. As I said, if you think otherwise then post your list. For my money, Boldin, Wayne and even Deangelo have less question marks than Forte which is why I have them higher - but then there's obviously never going to be one master list that we can all agree one.

FWIW, you continuously are pointing out what overrated means. I think we get it/already had it. Thanks. EBF in this thread has said:

Where's the evidence that he's a good football player?

And the title of the thread is "The single most overrated player in FF".And so, I think this thread is a little deeper than answering a mere "is he overrated?" question.

I keep pointing it out because I don't think you guys already had it. You and others keep arguing whether he has talent, whether he's any good, and whether his numbers this past year were good - but that's not the point I'm making and it's not the point EBF made in his original post. As I said in my first post in the thread, we're having this discussion because people are putting him in this "special" category because of his numbers. He's being drafted as a top 10 dynasty prospect based on his rookie numbers, and my argument (and I think EBF's) is that those "special" numbers were largely a result of opportunity as opposed to talent. Obviously, he had enough talent to be a second round pick and to take advantage of the opportunity. I don't know whether he's "the single most overrated player in FF" - but putting him in the top 5-10 overall dynasty prospects certainly is worth of having this discussion. I put that list there is because I'm saying definitively that here are 10 players I would take ahead of him straight up (RB scarcity aside). Where do you have him?I should also point that that like I said I try to balance opportunity and talent but for dynasty purposes I definitely put more focus on talent over opportunity. Opportunity can change dramatically from year to year, while talent largely doesn't. (See, e.g., Taylor, Chester). In the end, I believe that the cream will rise to the top, and if I'm going to invest a lot in a top 10 cornerstone kind of guy, I'd rather go with the elite talent than the opportunity. I believe Forte is an above average talent, but not worthy of a top 10 pick. There aren't many others in the top 10 that I feel so strongly about... so he is certainly at least a candidate for most overrated in my mind.

 

[EBF]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

Yards per carry is something that's useful when evaluating RBs because almost every RB has the same goal with every single carry: get the most yards possible. Yards per catch is far less useful because it reflects usage as much as it reflects talent. Ashley Lelie has historically had a very high yards per catch. Wes Welker has historically had a very low yards per catch. This does not mean Lelie is better than Welker, but rather that he's used in a much different way (downfield threat vs. chain mover). Royal's yards per catch was low because he was used in a very similar fashion to Welker. Your Royal/Forte comparison is atrocious. Forte is a middling athlete with mediocre workout numbers. Royal is an athletic freak of nature who's faster than most cornerbacks and stronger than most linebackers.

It's useful for both positions. Just as you need to read beyond the stats for WR, you need to also for RB. On a team like Chicago, you're probably more likely to have lower YPC because the team has no passing game and teams can look for the run more often. DVOA comes into play here too.

I agree with this. The big difference for me is that it's pretty easy to inflate/deflate a WRs yards per catch through playcalling. If a guy is always running long routes, he's going to have a higher yards per catch. If a guy is always running short routes, he's going to have a lower yards per catch. You don't see this effect at RB because it's not really possible to call a "long" run play or a "short" run play. You hand the ball off and hope the guy breaks a long run.Situation definitely affects YPC, but 3.9 is still pretty suspect for a player who hasn't proven himself. If it was a guy like Portis who's a known quantity, you could look at that number and probably just conclude that he had a bad year. With an unknown like Forte, you really don't know what to make of that number. It might be low because of his situation or it might be low because he's just a mediocre talent. Given that he was a (relatively) late pick with (relatively) weak combine numbers, I don't see how you can assume that it wasn't a sign of things to come.

The easy response is to point to the situation, but we've seen plenty of backs excel on bad offenses.

Why is 3.9 YPC suspect again? Have you ever taken a look at stats of Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Marcus Allen, LT (has been mentioned plenty in this thread)?

I think we hit this on page 3 or 4. Saying that a low YPC isn't a bad thing because LT once had a low YPC is like saying 4.6 isn't bad in the 40 because Jerry Rice ran that time. Yes, there have been some great players who had low YPC at one point or another in their career, but that number is dwarfed by the number of BAD players who had a low YPC at one point or another in their career.

You say Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, and Curtis Martin? I say Karim Abdul-Jabbar, William Green, and Julius Jones. The point isn't that Forte is total trash destined to wash out of the league. The point is that his rookie year wasn't spectacular enough to justify his current draft position. He's basically an unknown. He might be great or he might be mediocre. He's much too risky to justify a first round pick in a dynasty league. I readily acknowledge the chance that he'll eventually prove to be the real deal, but almost none of his supporters in this thread have acknowledged the possibility that he's an overrated flash in the pan like Chris Brown, Anthony Thomas, or Julius Jones. Once upon a time people were tripping over themselves to defend those guys and gush about their awesome talent.

 

[Burning Sensation]

This thread really just needs to be closed. Its gone from a useful back-and-forth on Forte's value to the unabashed attacking of people who disagree. At this point the relevant information is here, and the debates have been made. Readers can make a choice to draft him top 10 or not. End it.

Agreed, but i dont ever think player bashing threads should ever be started, because they will always end up like this. Maybe next time just leave the topic title at "Matt Forte", and then explain that you think he may be overvalued in initial dynasty drafts.

 

[Burning Sensation]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

Yards per carry is something that's useful when evaluating RBs because almost every RB has the same goal with every single carry: get the most yards possible. Yards per catch is far less useful because it reflects usage as much as it reflects talent. Ashley Lelie has historically had a very high yards per catch. Wes Welker has historically had a very low yards per catch. This does not mean Lelie is better than Welker, but rather that he's used in a much different way (downfield threat vs. chain mover). Royal's yards per catch was low because he was used in a very similar fashion to Welker. Your Royal/Forte comparison is atrocious. Forte is a middling athlete with mediocre workout numbers. Royal is an athletic freak of nature who's faster than most cornerbacks and stronger than most linebackers.

It's useful for both positions. Just as you need to read beyond the stats for WR, you need to also for RB. On a team like Chicago, you're probably more likely to have lower YPC because the team has no passing game and teams can look for the run more often. DVOA comes into play here too.

I agree with this. The big difference for me is that it's pretty easy to inflate/deflate a WRs yards per catch through playcalling. If a guy is always running long routes, he's going to have a higher yards per catch. If a guy is always running short routes, he's going to have a lower yards per catch. You don't see this effect at RB because it's not really possible to call a "long" run play or a "short" run play. You hand the ball off and hope the guy breaks a long run.Situation definitely affects YPC, but 3.9 is still pretty suspect for a player who hasn't proven himself. If it was a guy like Portis who's a known quantity, you could look at that number and probably just conclude that he had a bad year. With an unknown like Forte, you really don't know what to make of that number. It might be low because of his situation or it might be low because he's just a mediocre talent. Given that he was a (relatively) late pick with (relatively) weak combine numbers, I don't see how you can assume that it wasn't a sign of things to come.

The easy response is to point to the situation, but we've seen plenty of backs excel on bad offenses.

Why is 3.9 YPC suspect again? Have you ever taken a look at stats of Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Marcus Allen, LT (has been mentioned plenty in this thread)?

I think we hit this on page 3 or 4. Saying that a low YPC isn't a bad thing because LT once had a low YPC is like saying 4.6 isn't bad in the 40 because Jerry Rice ran that time. Yes, there have been some great players who had low YPC at one point or another in their career, but that number is dwarfed by the number of BAD players who had a low YPC at one point or another in their career.

You say Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, and Curtis Martin? I say Karim Abdul-Jabbar, William Green, and Julius Jones. The point isn't that Forte is total trash destined to wash out of the league. The point is that his rookie year wasn't spectacular enough to justify his current draft position. He's basically an unknown. He might be great or he might be mediocre. He's much too risky to justify a first round pick in a dynasty league. I readily acknowledge the chance that he'll eventually prove to be the real deal, but almost none of his supporters in this thread have acknowledged the possibility that he's an overrated flash in the pan like Chris Brown, Anthony Thomas, or Julius Jones. Once upon a time people were tripping over themselves to defend those guys and gush about their awesome talent.

What those players dont have in common with Forte that the first list does is that Forte finshed as the #1 FF back in most scoring formats. Maybe you can come up with a list of players who have averaged 3.9 YPC, and also finshed as a top 3 FF RB at some point of his career.

 

[the_sig]

I'd be curious to hear if any FBG's place much value on the metrics put out by football outsiders? As they relate to the argument at hand here with Forte, I'm specifically referring to DYAR.

From footballoutsiders.com:

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

For what it is worth, the table on the link provided ranks all RB's from 2008 with a minimum of 100 carries (49 RB's in that group) and Forte finished @ RB38.

I'm not saying that makes Forte a bad RB, or that DYAR translates into a draft list. However, it does move us in the direction of providing some objective evaluation that Forte was possibly just average last year. I'm sure a metric such as this won't go far in swaying the opinion of the 'my eyes tell me he is special' crowd, but I thought I'd throw it into the discussion.

To be fair to Forte, I think footballoutsiders also show objectively that CHI has a sub par run blocking offensive line as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

 

[Chachi]

What is it about Eddie Royal you like? He was a 2nd round pick, and finished 182nd with 10.8 YPC. Tied with the explosive Steve Heiden, and .1 ahead of Alge Crumpleer and Heath Miller. Also, lets not forget his less than desirable measurables.

I think he (Royal) ran a sub 4.4 40 and had as many bench presses as most linebackers at the combine. He is fast and strong - just not tall and bulky. Sorry for the hijack - I just remember Royal's measurables being fine.

yeah, Royal's numbers were very surprising for his build... hes a beast

Forte is to RB's what Royal is to WR's. Good 40 times, but lack prototypical build for their respective postions. Produced good numbers due to alot of opportunities, but both had less than spectacular YPC. Both have similar pedigree as each was drafted in the 2nd round.

Yards per carry is something that's useful when evaluating RBs because almost every RB has the same goal with every single carry: get the most yards possible. Yards per catch is far less useful because it reflects usage as much as it reflects talent. Ashley Lelie has historically had a very high yards per catch. Wes Welker has historically had a very low yards per catch. This does not mean Lelie is better than Welker, but rather that he's used in a much different way (downfield threat vs. chain mover). Royal's yards per catch was low because he was used in a very similar fashion to Welker. Your Royal/Forte comparison is atrocious. Forte is a middling athlete with mediocre workout numbers. Royal is an athletic freak of nature who's faster than most cornerbacks and stronger than most linebackers.

It's useful for both positions. Just as you need to read beyond the stats for WR, you need to also for RB. On a team like Chicago, you're probably more likely to have lower YPC because the team has no passing game and teams can look for the run more often. DVOA comes into play here too.

I agree with this. The big difference for me is that it's pretty easy to inflate/deflate a WRs yards per catch through playcalling. If a guy is always running long routes, he's going to have a higher yards per catch. If a guy is always running short routes, he's going to have a lower yards per catch. You don't see this effect at RB because it's not really possible to call a "long" run play or a "short" run play. You hand the ball off and hope the guy breaks a long run.Situation definitely affects YPC, but 3.9 is still pretty suspect for a player who hasn't proven himself. If it was a guy like Portis who's a known quantity, you could look at that number and probably just conclude that he had a bad year. With an unknown like Forte, you really don't know what to make of that number. It might be low because of his situation or it might be low because he's just a mediocre talent. Given that he was a (relatively) late pick with (relatively) weak combine numbers, I don't see how you can assume that it wasn't a sign of things to come.

The easy response is to point to the situation, but we've seen plenty of backs excel on bad offenses.

Why is 3.9 YPC suspect again? Have you ever taken a look at stats of Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Marcus Allen, LT (has been mentioned plenty in this thread)?

I think we hit this on page 3 or 4. Saying that a low YPC isn't a bad thing because LT once had a low YPC is like saying 4.6 isn't bad in the 40 because Jerry Rice ran that time. Yes, there have been some great players who had low YPC at one point or another in their career, but that number is dwarfed by the number of BAD players who had a low YPC at one point or another in their career.

You say Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, and Curtis Martin? I say Karim Abdul-Jabbar, William Green, and Julius Jones. The point isn't that Forte is total trash destined to wash out of the league. The point is that his rookie year wasn't spectacular enough to justify his current draft position. He's basically an unknown. He might be great or he might be mediocre. He's much too risky to justify a first round pick in a dynasty league. I readily acknowledge the chance that he'll eventually prove to be the real deal, but almost none of his supporters in this thread have acknowledged the possibility that he's an overrated flash in the pan like Chris Brown, Anthony Thomas, or Julius Jones. Once upon a time people were tripping over themselves to defend those guys and gush about their awesome talent.

What those players dont have in common with Forte that the first list does is that Forte finshed as the #1 FF back in most scoring formats. Maybe you can come up with a list of players who have averaged 3.9 YPC, and also finshed as a top 3 FF RB at some point of his career.

More cherry picking going on here than in central California.

 

[geoff8695]

What those players dont have in common with Forte that the first list does is that Forte finshed as the #1 FF back in most scoring formats. Maybe you can come up with a list of players who have averaged 3.9 YPC, and also finshed as a top 3 FF RB at some point of his career.

I like using the historical data dominator to see how current players stats compare to successful players from the past. I think that sometimes it adds additional perspective when sizing up a contemporary player's performance. That being said, I know this isn't the criteria you're looking for, but here's the list of 28 rookies who scored at least 200 fantasy points during the last 30 yrs. (standard FBG's scoring) Forte's rookie season ranks as 13th best over that time frame, and there are some pretty big names on the list. Interestingly enough, Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson also make the list at 18th and 23rd respectively...

Your query returned 28 records.  NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT 1 Eric Dickerson rb 1983 23 1 16 390 1808 4.64 18 51 404 7.92 2 341.20 2 Edgerrin James rb 1999 21 1 16 369 1553 4.21 13 62 586 9.45 4 315.90 3 Clinton Portis rb 2002 21 1 16 273 1508 5.52 15 33 364 11.03 2 289.20 4 Billy Sims rb 1980 25 1 16 313 1303 4.16 13 51 621 12.18 3 288.40 5 Fred Taylor rb 1998 22 1 15 264 1223 4.63 14 44 421 9.57 3 266.40 6 Curtis Martin rb 1995 22 1 16 368 1487 4.04 14 30 261 8.70 1 264.80 7 Curt Warner rb 1983 22 1 16 335 1449 4.33 13 42 325 7.74 1 261.40 8 Barry Sanders rb 1989 21 1 15 280 1470 5.25 14 24 282 11.75 0 259.20 9 George Rogers rb 1981 23 1 15 378 1674 4.43 13 16 126 7.88 0 258.00 10 Mike Anderson rb 2000 27 1 14 297 1487 5.01 15 23 169 7.35 0 255.60 11 Marshall Faulk rb 1994 21 1 16 314 1282 4.08 11 52 522 10.04 1 252.40 12 Ottis Anderson rb 1979 22 1 16 331 1605 4.85 8 41 308 7.51 2 251.30 13 Matt Forte rb 2008 23 1 16 316 1238 3.92 8 63 477 7.57 4 243.50 14 Herschel Walker rb 1986 24 1 16 151 737 4.88 12 76 837 11.01 2 241.40 15 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.63 12 19 268 14.11 1 238.90 16 Joe Cribbs rb 1980 22 1 16 306 1185 3.87 11 52 415 7.98 1 232.00 17 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2006 21 1 16 166 941 5.67 13 46 436 9.48 2 227.70 18 Steve Slaton rb 2008 22 1 16 268 1282 4.78 9 50 377 7.54 1 225.90 19 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2001 22 1 16 339 1236 3.65 10 59 367 6.22 0 220.30 20 Robert Edwards rb 1998 24 1 16 291 1115 3.83 9 35 331 9.46 3 216.60 21 Ickey Woods rb 1988 22 1 16 203 1066 5.25 15 21 199 9.48 0 216.50 22 Jerome Bettis rb 1993 21 1 16 294 1429 4.86 7 26 244 9.38 0 209.30 23 Chris Johnson rb 2008 23 1 15 251 1228 4.89 9 43 260 6.05 1 208.80 24 Ricky Watters rb 1992 23 1 14 206 1013 4.92 9 43 405 9.42 2 207.80 25 Willis McGahee rb 2004 23 1 16 284 1128 3.97 13 22 169 7.68 0 207.70 26 Eddie George rb 1996 23 1 16 335 1368 4.08 8 23 182 7.91 0 203.00 27 Jamal Lewis rb 2000 21 1 16 309 1364 4.41 6 27 296 10.96 0 202.00 28 Kevin Mack rb 1985 23 1 16 222 1104 4.97 7 29 297 10.24 3 200.10

 

[Burning Sensation]

What those players dont have in common with Forte that the first list does is that Forte finshed as the #1 FF back in most scoring formats. Maybe you can come up with a list of players who have averaged 3.9 YPC, and also finshed as a top 3 FF RB at some point of his career.

I like using the historical data dominator to see how current players stats compare to successful players from the past. I think that sometimes it adds additional perspective when sizing up a contemporary player's performance. That being said, I know this isn't the criteria you're looking for, but here's the list of 28 rookies who scored at least 200 fantasy points during the last 30 yrs. (standard FBG's scoring) Forte's rookie season ranks as 13th best over that time frame, and there are some pretty big names on the list. Interestingly enough, Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson also make the list at 18th and 23rd respectively...

Your query returned 28 records.  NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT 1 Eric Dickerson rb 1983 23 1 16 390 1808 4.64 18 51 404 7.92 2 341.20 2 Edgerrin James rb 1999 21 1 16 369 1553 4.21 13 62 586 9.45 4 315.90 3 Clinton Portis rb 2002 21 1 16 273 1508 5.52 15 33 364 11.03 2 289.20 4 Billy Sims rb 1980 25 1 16 313 1303 4.16 13 51 621 12.18 3 288.40 5 Fred Taylor rb 1998 22 1 15 264 1223 4.63 14 44 421 9.57 3 266.40 6 Curtis Martin rb 1995 22 1 16 368 1487 4.04 14 30 261 8.70 1 264.80 7 Curt Warner rb 1983 22 1 16 335 1449 4.33 13 42 325 7.74 1 261.40 8 Barry Sanders rb 1989 21 1 15 280 1470 5.25 14 24 282 11.75 0 259.20 9 George Rogers rb 1981 23 1 15 378 1674 4.43 13 16 126 7.88 0 258.00 10 Mike Anderson rb 2000 27 1 14 297 1487 5.01 15 23 169 7.35 0 255.60 11 Marshall Faulk rb 1994 21 1 16 314 1282 4.08 11 52 522 10.04 1 252.40 12 Ottis Anderson rb 1979 22 1 16 331 1605 4.85 8 41 308 7.51 2 251.30 13 Matt Forte rb 2008 23 1 16 316 1238 3.92 8 63 477 7.57 4 243.50 14 Herschel Walker rb 1986 24 1 16 151 737 4.88 12 76 837 11.01 2 241.40 15 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.63 12 19 268 14.11 1 238.90 16 Joe Cribbs rb 1980 22 1 16 306 1185 3.87 11 52 415 7.98 1 232.00 17 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2006 21 1 16 166 941 5.67 13 46 436 9.48 2 227.70 18 Steve Slaton rb 2008 22 1 16 268 1282 4.78 9 50 377 7.54 1 225.90 19 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2001 22 1 16 339 1236 3.65 10 59 367 6.22 0 220.30 20 Robert Edwards rb 1998 24 1 16 291 1115 3.83 9 35 331 9.46 3 216.60 21 Ickey Woods rb 1988 22 1 16 203 1066 5.25 15 21 199 9.48 0 216.50 22 Jerome Bettis rb 1993 21 1 16 294 1429 4.86 7 26 244 9.38 0 209.30 23 Chris Johnson rb 2008 23 1 15 251 1228 4.89 9 43 260 6.05 1 208.80 24 Ricky Watters rb 1992 23 1 14 206 1013 4.92 9 43 405 9.42 2 207.80 25 Willis McGahee rb 2004 23 1 16 284 1128 3.97 13 22 169 7.68 0 207.70 26 Eddie George rb 1996 23 1 16 335 1368 4.08 8 23 182 7.91 0 203.00 27 Jamal Lewis rb 2000 21 1 16 309 1364 4.41 6 27 296 10.96 0 202.00 28 Kevin Mack rb 1985 23 1 16 222 1104 4.97 7 29 297 10.24 3 200.10

After reading this, i change my mind about Forte, none of the guys on this list went on to do much in the NFL.

 

[Football Jones]

Forte's production will decrease if he loses touches? So what? Every player's production decreases when they lose touches, LOL. I got news for you. Forte will still be a top RB even if he loses quite a few touches.

That said, who's going to take touches away? What people fail to realize is he's EXACTLY the type of RB who isn't a flash in the pan. The kind of player who doesn't get replaced. The reason is he has no weaknesses & his straight running/catching skills are top-notch. Mama & Papa Forte made a helluva NFL RB.

I was literally shocked the first time I saw him play at Tulane. He stuck out like a sore thumb (in a good way). Quite simply, he's an outstanding football player.