Dynasty ppr top 20 for 2017 (1 Viewer)

[thatguy]

Alright so here is a quick attempt at a longer list.

I was not able to stick completely to the way I want to tier the players as doing that would require 3 year projections which I haven't done yet and that always takes quite a bit of time.

The tiers I do have are tier one, which are the players who have proven they can repeat top 12 seasons aside from Elliot who only has one so far in his career. Tier two has players who have had at least one top 12 season but may be getting older, or have injury or other concerns that may prevent them from doing so again. So in a sense the top 2 tiers have top 12 upside, but tier one players are more likely to, or carry less baggage.

Tier 3 players are those that can and have had top 12 seasons before, but are old and might not do so again, I expect these players to be more RB/WR two (top 13 to 24) than I would expect them to be top 12 is the main difference between tier 3 and tier two.

Tier four are players who I don't really think have top 12 upside, but are still valuable and could produce multiple RB/WR two (13 to 24) or RB/WR seasons in the next few years.

Tier one

Odell Beckham
David Johnson
Ezekiel Elliot
Mike Evans
LeVeon Bell
Antonio Brown
Julio JonesAmari Cooper
AJ Green
TY Hilton
Brandin Cooks

Tier two

DeAndre Hopkins
Sammy Watkins
Dez Bryant
Javis Landry
Michael Thomas
Keenan Allen
DeMarius Thomas
Allen Robinson
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon
Devonta Freeman
Doug Baldwin
Lamar Miller
Jordan Howard
Jay Ajayi

Tier 3

Stefon Diggs
Julian Edelman
Jordy Nelson
LeSean McCoy
DeMarco Murray
Devantae Parker
Golden Tate
Mark Ingram
Michael Crabtree
Kelvin Benjamin
Devantae Adams
Corey Coleman
Alshon Jeffrey
John Brown
Randall Cobb
Jamison Crowder
Larry Fitzgerald
Jordan Matthews
Donte Moncrief
Josh Doctson
Sterling Shephard
Derrick Henry
Theo Riddick
Giovani Bernard

Tier four

Tyrell Williams
LeGarratte Blount
Allen Hurns
Mohammed Sanu
Emmanuel Sanders
Eric Decker
Marvin Jones
Willie Snead
Thomas Rawls
Tyler Lockett
Kevin White
Kenneth Dixon
Devontae Booker
Dion Lewis
Spencer Ware
Jeremy Maclin
Carlos Hyde
Bilial Powell
Isaiah Crowell
Tevin Coleman
Duke Johnson
CJ Anderson
CJ Prosise
Adam Thielen
Jacquizz Rodgers
TJ Yeldon
Tavon Austin
Terrelle Pryor
Devin Funchess
Tyler Boyd
Laquon Treadwell
Malcolm Mitchell
Breshard Perriman
Cole Beasley
Will Fuller
Paul Perkins
DeAndre Washington
Leonte Carroo
Jerrick McKinnon
James White
DeSean Jackson
Charles Sims
Jeremy Hill
Tajae Sharpe

I am sure I forgot about quite a few guys. Tell me who you think they are and where would you rank them?

I could definitely see breaking up tier four some more, but this is how far I got so far.

With as deep as you went I would think you would have to find a place for Tyreek Hill on that list. Also why are we limiting this to running backs and wide receivers? I think it would be more interesting to include tight ends and quarterbacks as well

 

[Biabreakable]

I could hardly forget Randy Moss as a Vikings fan who was able to draft Moss in dynasty his rookie season in a league of mostly Vikings fans. 

I appreciate the feedback and I have some new ideas of rankings to form. You make an excellent point about simplicity sometimes being better if for nothing else because it would be less time consuming.

I have an idea about a shortcut to rankings with projections might be based off of this.(3 year average of 2014-2016) Then just rank the players by position and plug them into where they slot for values.

To give an example, here is my ranking with the 3 year average valued plugged in, this is VBD not points scored.

Odell Beckham (25) 181.34
David Johnson (25) 207.8
Ezekiel Elliot (22) 155.3
Mike Evans (24) 162.1
LeVeon Bell (25) 145.6
Antonio Brown (29) 147.6
Julio Jones (28) 138.44
Amari Cooper (23) 122.17
AJ Green (29) 110.97

David Johnson has more VBD as the RB 1 slot of my rankings for 2017 however the long term value of Beckham still trumps this for me. This is something that could be expressed in the N+1 and N+2 column. Johnson will be 27 years old in year N+1 and reaching the point where most RB start to decline and you might start applying a discount type modifier for age.

Evans scores more than Elliot in 2017 and should perhaps be considered higher than Elliot because of this and the longer term value of a WR compared to a RB. However Elliot is a rare case where he has a good chance to provide four top 12 type seasons, whereas for most RB I would only hope for two. The reason I like Elliots chances to provide this many good seasons is because of this and confirmation of Elliots excellent rookie season.. 

Antonio Brown scores more than Bell in 2017 based on this, Brown being older, the age factor is more even perhaps, the scores are very close and I could see going either way.

If I were to tier based on a points threshold, then those players above 140 points might be a tier ahead and Jones starting the next tier for example.

I do think it is easier to rank the players by position rather than a overall ranking, where the relative value of positions are less clear. The projections and a VBD comparison is largely meant to account for this relative difference in value. So in the meantime, this shortcut could be a placeholder for these values until team projections can replace them.

 

[Biabreakable]

With as deep as you went I would think you would have to find a place for Tyreek Hill on that list. Also why are we limiting this to running backs and wide receivers? I think it would be more interesting to include tight ends and quarterbacks as well

Patience my friend. I did say it was an incomplete list. I haven't made my mind up about Hill yet. I do recall Bud talking about him during the preseason, I just didn't watch too many Chiefs games. I didn't get around to adding players to this list yesterday because I was too busy putzing over process, which I usually find a bit more interesting than the results. 

Here is Mike Clay's list in the meantime. My stuff is   right now. Will likely be posting a few different rankings using different methodology over the next couple months.

 

[Biabreakable]

I finished calculating the 3 year averages for what I think are all of the relevant players that should be included or considered for a dynasty ranking.

Using a 3 year average instead of last seasons stats has a few advantages. The main one I think is providing a larger sample size of data. Each player has potentially 48 games over 3 seasons. So this gives me more confidence in numbers like yards per carry, targets and rushing attempts ect than I think one or even two seasons. Some of these players only have one or two seasons of data to work with, so I am a bit more skeptical of those numbers being an average type of a season for the player than I am for a player who has 3 years of data to draw on, which does provide a more accurate representative sample of what the player may do each season of their career.

Looking at 3 years can also provide insight into players who may be ascending or declining as well. I haven't used this for that in terms of a ranking. That is something I would like to explore further in days ahead.

Another nice thing about a 3 year average is that it only considers the most recent data for the player, as much as possible. For some players I had to use 2011-2013 to fill the 3rd year because the player missed one or more of the 2014-216 season. Some players I only used two years of data, but I tried to use 3 years as often as I could.

I think knowing the 3 year average fantasy points for all players is a pretty useful ranking in itself, for dynasty or redraft. It is enough data to normalize many of the outliers.while also being as relatively current. For projections this would be a starting point when considering the whole team and if that players role might change for one reason or another or if it will stay mostly the same.

These values do not consider age at all (yet) so that would be another modifier to this later on. If anyone wants to see all of the data which I compiled from Pro Football Reference, you can see that here. This has the ages and the actual yards, rushing attempts, targets, ect

I did start calculating points per game numbers for this as well, which I would consider a separate ranking from the VBD or total points rankings. I think all 3 of these types of rankings have stand alone value and they can also be combined into a composite ranking of the 3 concepts. Current age and when a discount for age might come into play woul be the 4th part of this.

These are ranked by value based draft numbers using QB 12 RB 24 WR 36 TE 12 baseline.

171.0    360.0    Antonio Brown*+
168.0    325.0    Ezekiel Elliott*+
152.0    309.0    David Johnson
129.7    219.7    Greg Olsen*
121.7    310.7    Julio Jones*+
120.0    277.0    DeMarco Murray*
116.3    206.3    Rob Gronkowski*+
114.7    303.7    Odell Beckham*
112.7    202.7    Delanie Walker
109.3    266.3    Le'Veon Bell*
106.7    196.7    Travis Kelce*+
92.3    249.3    Matt Forte
90.7    180.7    Jimmy Graham*
89.7    278.7    Demaryius Thomas*
83.3    173.3    Antonio Gates
80.0    170.0    Jordan Reed
78.3    168.3    Martellus Bennett*
76.0    166.0    Zach Ertz
75.3    348.3    Aaron Rodgers*
73.0    230.0    Jordan Howard
72.7    229.7    Devonta Freeman*
70.0    160.0    Jason Witten*
68.3    225.3    LeSean McCoy*
67.0    256.0    Michael Thomas
64.3    253.3    Mike Evans
64.0    253.0    DeAndre Hopkins
60.3    249.3    T.Y. Hilton*
58.3    215.3    Lamar Miller
57.3    246.3    Emmanuel Sanders*
56.0    213.0    Mark Ingram
56.0    146.0    Coby Fleener
47.0    204.0    Todd Gurley
43.3    316.3    Russell Wilson
43.0    316.0    Drew Brees
43.0    133.0    Kyle Rudolph
42.7    231.7    Golden Tate*
42.0    132.0    Hunter Henry
42.0    132.0    Gary Barnidge
41.7    230.7    Doug Baldwin
41.7    131.7    Charles Clay
38.0    227.0    Jarvis Landry
37.0    226.0    Larry Fitzgerald
35.7    224.7    Brandon Marshall
34.5    223.5    Amari Cooper*
33.3    123.3    Julius Thomas*
32.7    221.7    A.J. Green*
31.7    188.7    Frank Gore
29.3    186.3    Jeremy Hill
27.0    300.0    Cam Newton
26.0    215.0    Terrelle Pryor
25.7    214.7    Randall Cobb*
24.0    213.0    Brandin Cooks
23.5    212.5    Kelvin Benjamin
22.5    179.5    Melvin Gordon
22.3    211.3    Michael Crabtree
22.0    211.0    Jordy Nelson
21.7    294.7    Tom Brady*
21.7    210.7    Jeremy Maclin
20.3    209.3    Julian Edelman
20.3    110.3    Eric Ebron
20.0    293.0    Dak Prescott*
18.7    291.7    Matt Ryan
14.5    171.5    Isaiah Crowell
13.7    202.7    Jordan Matthews
12.3    169.3    Adrian Peterson*+
11.0    200.0    Eric Decker
10.0    199.0    Tyreek Hill*+
9.3    166.3    Latavius Murray*
9.0    99.0    Tyler Eifert
9.0    99.0    Will Tye
7.3    196.3    Dez Bryant*+
7.3    97.3    Jared Cook
6.7    163.7    Giovani Bernard
6.0    96.0    Zach Miller
4.7    94.7    Richard Rodgers
3.3    276.3    Matthew Stafford
1.3    190.3    Allen Robinson
0.5    273.5    Tyrod Taylor
0.0    189.0    Alshon Jeffery
-0.5    188.5    Willie Snead
-0.7    188.3    Anquan Boldin
-1.3    271.7    Philip Rivers
-2.0    88.0    Dwayne Allen
-2.5    270.5    Jameis Winston
-3.0    270.0    Ben Roethlisberger*
-3.0    154.0    Duke Johnson
-3.3    153.7    Jamaal Charles
-4.0    153.0    Darren Sproles*
-4.0    86.0    Lance Kendricks
-4.7    152.3    Eddie Lacy
-5.0    184.0    Sterling Shepard
-5.0    85.0    Vernon Davis
-5.3    151.7    Jonathan Stewart*
-5.3    151.7    C.J. Anderson
-5.7    183.3    Pierre Garcon
-5.7    151.3    LeGarrette Blount
-6.0    84.0    Vance McDonald
-6.0    84.0    Clive Walford
-6.7    266.3    Andrew Luck
-7.0    150.0    Chris Ivory*
-8.7    81.3    Cameron Brate
-9.5    80.5    Ryan Griffin
-9.7    147.3    Rashad Jennings
-9.7    80.3    Dennis Pitta
-10.0    147.0    T.J. Yeldon
-11.0    178.0    Tyrell Williams
-11.7    145.3    Theo Riddick
-12.0    261.0    Eli Manning
-12.0    145.0    Justin Forsett
-13.7    143.3    Darren McFadden
-14.0    143.0    Devontae Booker
-16.7    256.3    Blake Bortles
-17.3    171.7    Mike Wallace
-18.0    171.0    Stefon Diggs
-19.3    169.7    Keenan Allen
-20.0    137.0    Javorius Allen
-22.3    166.7    Sammy Watkins
-23.7    165.3    DeSean Jackson
-24.0    133.0    Robert Kelley
-24.0    133.0    Doug Martin*+
-24.0    133.0    Danny Woodhead
-24.0    66.0    Austin Hooper
-24.5    164.5    Cameron Meredith
-25.0    164.0    Allen Hurns
-25.0    65.0    Maxx Williams
-26.0    163.0    Jamison Crowder
-27.0    162.0    Brandon LaFell
-28.0    245.0    Derek Carr*
-28.0    129.0    Jay Ajayi
-28.3    61.7    C.J. Fiedorowicz
-28.5    160.5    Cole Beasley
-29.0    244.0    Ryan Tannehill
-29.3    243.7    Andy Dalton
-31.5    58.5    Jesse James
-31.7    241.3    Alex Smith
-33.0    124.0    Bilal Powell
-33.0    124.0    Karlos Williams
-33.5    239.5    Marcus Mariota
-33.7    123.3    Matt Asiata
-34.7    55.3    Austin Seferian-Jenkins
-35.7    153.3    Kenny Britt
-36.0    153.0    John Brown
-36.3    120.7    Chris Thompson
-36.3    120.7    DeAngelo Williams
-36.3    120.7    Shane Vereen
-36.3    152.7    Davante Adams
-37.0    152.0    Michael Floyd
-39.0    150.0    Martavis Bryant
-40.0    117.0    Andre Ellington
-41.0    116.0    Jalen Richard
-41.3    115.7    Carlos Hyde
-43.3    229.7    Kirk Cousins
-43.5    113.5    Charcandrick West
-44.0    113.0    Terrance West
-44.7    112.3    Ryan Mathews
-45.0    144.0    Kenny Stills
-45.5    111.5    Jeremy Langford
-45.7    143.3    Tavon Austin
-45.7    111.3    Shaun Draughn
-46.5    43.5    Virgil Green
-46.7    142.3    Quincy Enunwa
-46.7    142.3    Markus Wheaton
-47.0    142.0    Terrance Williams
-48.0    109.0    Jerick McKinnon
-48.7    108.3    Alfred Morris
-49.0    224.0    Joe Flacco
-49.0    140.0    Mohamed Sanu
-49.5    107.5    Tim Hightower
-50.5    138.5    Tyler Lockett*+
-51.0    106.0    Derrick Henry
-51.7    221.3    Carson Palmer
-53.3    103.7    Jacquizz Rodgers
-54.0    103.0    Thomas Rawls
-54.0    103.0    Charles Sims
-54.5    102.5    Corey Grant
-55.0    218.0    Carson Wentz
-55.0    134.0    Robert Woods
-55.0    102.0    Kenneth Dixon
-55.0    35.0    Seth Devalve
-55.7    133.3    Dontrelle Inman
-55.7    101.3    James Starks
-56.0    101.0    Bobby Rainey
-56.7    132.3    Travis Benjamin
-57.7    99.3    Rex Burkhead
-58.3    98.7    James White
-58.3    98.7    Kenjon Barner
-58.5    98.5    Aaron Ripkowski
-59.7    97.3    Ronnie Hillman
-60.3    128.7    Rishard Matthews
-61.7    127.3    Torrey Smith
-62.5    126.5    DeVante Parker
-62.7    94.3    Dion Lewis
-63.0    126.0    Eli Rogers
-63.3    125.7    Ted Ginn
-64.0    26.0    Tyler Higbee
-64.7    92.3    Spencer Ware
-65.0    124.0    Donte Moncrief
-65.0    124.0    Tyler Boyd
-65.5    91.5    Ty Montgomery
-66.7    90.3    Alfred Blue
-67.0    122.0    Will Fuller
-67.0    90.0    Reggie Bush
-68.0    89.0    Mike Gillislee
-68.3    88.7    Kyle Juszczyk
-69.0    120.0    Victor Cruz
-70.3    118.7    Brian Quick
-70.7    118.3    Kendall Wright
-72.0    85.0    DeAndre Washington
-72.3    116.7    Jermaine Kearse
-73.7    199.3    Ryan Fitzpatrick
-73.7    115.3    Marvin Jones
-74.0    115.0    Robby Anderson
-77.0    112.0    Seth Roberts
-77.0    112.0    Kamar Aiken
-77.7    79.3    Chris Johnson
-79.0    194.0    Trevor Siemian
-79.0    110.0    Eddie Royal
-79.0    78.0    Tevin Coleman
-80.0    109.0    Chris Hogan
-80.0    77.0    Paul Perkins
-82.0    75.0    Benny Cunningham
-83.0    190.0    Teddy Bridgewater
-83.0    74.0    Zach Zenner
-84.0    105.0    Tajae Sharpe
-84.0    73.0    Robert Turbin
-85.0    72.0    Ameer Abdullah
-85.3    187.7    Colin Kaepernick
-86.3    70.7    Travaris Cadet
-88.0    101.0    Breshad Perriman
-88.3    100.7    Marqise Lee
-89.0    100.0    Dorial Green-Beckham
-89.7    67.3    Denard Robinson
-90.0    99.0    Taylor Gabriel
-90.0    99.0    Andrew Hawkins
-90.3    66.7    Jamize Olawale
-91.0    66.0    DuJuan Harris
-91.7    65.3    Damien Williams
-92.0    97.0    JJ Nelson
-92.0    97.0    Adam Humphries
-93.0    96.0    Jeremy Kerley
-93.0    96.0    Malcolm Mitchell
-93.0    96.0    Devin Funchess
-93.7    179.3    Sam Bradford
-94.0    63.0    Matt Jones
-94.3    62.7    Christine Michael
-95.3    177.7    Jay Cutler
-96.0    93.0    Corey Coleman
-96.0    61.0    C.J. Prosise
-99.0    90.0    Danny Amendola
-102.3    54.7    Orleans Darkwa
-103.0    86.0    Adam Thielen
-106.7    50.3    Jonathan Grimes
-108.0    81.0    Andre Holmes
-108.0    49.0    Dwayne Washington
-108.7    48.3    Fozzy Whittaker
-110.0    47.0    Wendell Smallwood
-111.3    77.7    Corey Brown
-111.7    45.3    Lance Dunbar
-116.0    73.0    Albert Wilson
-116.5    72.5    Phillip Dorsett
-117.5    71.5    Nelson Agholor
-119.0    70.0    Cordarrelle Patterson
-119.0    70.0    Chris Conley
-120.0    37.0    Kenneth Farrow
-121.0    36.0    Peyton Barber
-121.0    36.0    Alex Collins
-121.0    36.0    Josh Ferguson
-121.3    67.7    Justin Hunter
-125.0    32.0    Cameron Artis-Payne
-128.0    29.0    Ka'Deem Carey
-129.0    144.0    Brock Osweiler
-137.0    136.0    Brian Hoyer
-137.3    51.7    Brice Butler
-140.0    17.0    Kerwynn Williams
-143.0    14.0    Kapri Bibbs
-145.0    44.0    Geronimo Allison
-148.0    41.0    Paul Richardson
-149.0    124.0    Robert Griffin
-149.0    40.0    Sammie Coates
-168.0    105.0    Josh McCown
-169.0    104.0    Tony Romo
-183.0    90.0    Mike Glennon
-194.0    79.0    Cody Kessler
-201.0    72.0    Matt Barkley
-216.0    57.0    Matt Moore
-220.0    53.0    Jared Goff
-224.0    49.0    EJ Manuel
-237.0    36.0    Jimmy Garoppolo
-237.0    36.0    Landry Jones
-241.0    32.0    Bryce Petty
-245.0    28.0    Paxton Lynch
 

Fixed a few  errors I noticed already. my baselines for QB was 100 points too high and the TE too low on my 1st go If you guys see some others let me know.

 

[Biabreakable]

The point per game numbers (still using 3 years of data) shows the players valued like this:
 
23.5    266.3    109.3    Le'Veon Bell*    205.7    91.0
23.0    360.0    171.0    Antonio Brown*+    236.3    114.3
22.1    169.7    -19.3    Keenan Allen    67.0    4.1
21.8    348.3    75.3    Aaron Rodgers*    348.3    
21.7    325.0    168.0    Ezekiel Elliott*+    293.0    156.0
21.2    303.7    114.7    Odell Beckham*    207.7    85.7
21.0    266.3    -6.7    Andrew Luck    266.3    
20.7    310.7    121.7    Julio Jones*+    203.0    81.0
20.2    316.0    43.0    Drew Brees    316.0    
20.1    294.7    21.7    Tom Brady*    294.7    
20.0    153.7    -3.3    Jamaal Charles    100.3    34.8
20.0    300.0    27.0    Cam Newton    300.0    
19.8    316.3    43.3    Russell Wilson    316.3    
19.3    309.0    152.0    David Johnson    251.0    121.0
19.3    270.0    -3.0    Ben Roethlisberger*    270.0    
19.0    133.0    -24.0    Danny Woodhead    63.7    17.4
18.9    273.5    0.5    Tyrod Taylor    273.5    
18.3    293.0    20.0    Dak Prescott*    293.0    
18.2    291.7    18.7    Matt Ryan    291.7    
18.1    229.7    -43.3    Kirk Cousins    229.7    
17.9    221.3    -51.7    Carson Palmer    221.3    
17.8    178.0    -11.0    Tyrell Williams    81.5    23.0
17.7    239.5    -33.5    Marcus Mariota    239.5    
17.7    277.0    120.0    DeMarco Murray*    225.7    99.3
17.4    278.7    89.7    Demaryius Thomas*    176.7    54.7
17.4    249.3    92.3    Matt Forte    190.7    63.7
17.3    276.3    3.3    Matthew Stafford    276.3    
17.1    256.0    67.0    Michael Thomas    164.0    45.0
17.1    221.7    32.7    A.J. Green*    148.0    25.7
17.0    271.7    -1.3    Philip Rivers    271.7    
16.9    270.5    -2.5    Jameis Winston    270.5    
16.7    256.3    -16.7    Blake Bortles    256.3    
16.5    253.3    64.3    Mike Evans    174.0    51.7
16.3    261.0    -12.0    Eli Manning    261.0    
16.3    206.3    116.3    Rob Gronkowski*+    146.7    116.3
16.3    244.0    -29.0    Ryan Tannehill    244.0    
16.2    243.7    -29.3    Andy Dalton    243.7    
16.1    209.3    20.3    Julian Edelman    125.7    7.3
16.0    224.0    -49.0    Joe Flacco    224.0    
15.9    249.3    60.3    T.Y. Hilton*    168.7    46.3
15.8    253.0    64.0    DeAndre Hopkins    164.7    42.7
15.7    241.3    -31.7    Alex Smith    241.3    
15.7    246.3    57.3    Emmanuel Sanders*    161.0    39.0
15.7    225.3    68.3    LeSean McCoy*    188.7    62.0
15.6    245.0    -28.0    Derek Carr*    245.0    
15.6    104.0    -169.0    Tony Romo    104.0    
15.6    213.0    56.0    Mark Ingram    171.3    45.0
15.5    196.3    7.3    Dez Bryant*+    140.0    40.0
15.3    230.0    73.0    Jordan Howard    201.0    64.0
15.3    189.0    0.0    Alshon Jeffery    125.3    17.7
15.3    224.7    35.7    Brandon Marshall    148.3    35.3
15.2    177.7    -95.3    Jay Cutler    177.7    
15.2    187.7    -85.3    Colin Kaepernick    187.7    
15.2    213.0    24.0    Brandin Cooks    141.3    31.3
15.0    90.0    -183.0    Mike Glennon    90.0    
14.9    179.3    -93.7    Sam Bradford    179.3    
14.7    226.0    37.0    Larry Fitzgerald    133.0    21.7
14.7    142.3    -46.7    Quincy Enunwa    47.7    0.0
14.7    210.7    21.7    Jeremy Maclin    138.7    33.7
14.7    229.7    72.7    Devonta Freeman*    177.3    71.7
14.5    231.7    42.7    Golden Tate*    138.3    17.3
14.4    230.7    41.7    Doug Baldwin    151.3    36.7
14.3    214.7    25.7    Randall Cobb*    138.0    26.3
14.3    150.0    -39.0    Martavis Bryant    112.0    0.0
14.2    199.3    -73.7    Ryan Fitzpatrick    199.3    
14.2    227.0    38.0    Jarvis Landry    131.0    17.7
14.1    204.0    47.0    Todd Gurley    172.0    42.0
14.1    169.3    12.3    Adrian Peterson*+    82.0    42.8
14.0    215.3    58.3    Lamar Miller    176.7    50.3
14.0    223.5    34.5    Amari Cooper*    146.0    24.0
13.9    194.0    -79.0    Trevor Siemian    194.0    
13.8    170.0    80.0    Jordan Reed    102.3    
13.8    124.0    -149.0    Robert Griffin    124.0    
13.7    219.7    129.7    Greg Olsen*    139.3    129.7
13.6    218.0    -55.0    Carson Wentz    218.0    
13.6    190.3    1.3    Allen Robinson    139.7    75.6
13.5    166.7    -22.3    Sammy Watkins    115.7    14.7
13.5    202.7    112.7    Delanie Walker    128.7    112.7
13.5    99.0    9.0    Tyler Eifert    71.0    9.0
13.4    215.0    26.0    Terrelle Pryor    138.0    19.0
13.3    200.0    11.0    Eric Decker    126.0    3.0
13.3    179.5    22.5    Melvin Gordon    142.5    36.5
13.3    212.5    23.5    Kelvin Benjamin    144.5    23.5
13.2    202.7    13.7    Jordan Matthews    127.7    11.0
13.2    211.3    22.3    Michael Crabtree    130.7    18.3
13.2    211.0    22.0    Jordy Nelson    205.7    84.7
13.2    72.0    -201.0    Matt Barkley    72.0    
13.2    164.5    -24.5    Cameron Meredith    62.5    13.0
13.2    171.0    -18.0    Stefon Diggs    103.0    0.0
13.1    105.0    -168.0    Josh McCown    105.0    
13.1    190.0    -83.0    Teddy Bridgewater    190.0    
12.7    152.3    -4.7    Eddie Lacy    130.3    37.0
12.7    173.3    83.3    Antonio Gates    114.0    83.3
12.6    164.0    -25.0    Allen Hurns    114.5    19.5
12.6    180.7    90.7    Jimmy Graham*    114.7    90.7
12.6    163.7    6.7    Giovani Bernard    120.0    11.7
12.6    188.5    -0.5    Willie Snead    118.0    0.5
12.5    144.0    -129.0    Brock Osweiler    144.0    
12.4    199.0    10.0    Tyreek Hill*+    138.0    19.0
12.4    145.0    -12.0    Justin Forsett    113.3    28.7
12.4    165.3    -23.7    DeSean Jackson    118.0    12.0
12.3    94.3    -62.7    Dion Lewis    45.7    5.8
12.3    151.7    -5.3    C.J. Anderson    126.7    19.3
12.3    196.7    106.7    Travis Kelce*+    122.0    106.7
12.3    188.3    -0.7    Anquan Boldin    115.3    4.3
12.2    142.3    -46.7    Markus Wheaton    66.7    5.7
12.1    120.7    -36.3    DeAngelo Williams    99.7    22.7
12.1    102.5    -54.5    Corey Grant    15.5    1.3
11.9    143.3    -13.7    Darren McFadden    83.7    15.1
11.9    186.3    29.3    Jeremy Hill    165.3    39.0
11.8    188.7    31.7    Frank Gore    161.0    34.3
11.7    168.3    78.3    Martellus Bennett*    102.3    78.3
11.7    120.7    -36.3    Chris Thompson    56.3    5.3
11.7    151.7    -5.3    Jonathan Stewart*    135.3    9.0
11.5    184.0    -5.0    Sterling Shepard    119.0    
11.5    183.3    -5.7    Pierre Garcon    110.3    1.0
11.4    137.0    -20.0    Javorius Allen    53.0    4.0
11.4    133.0    -24.0    Doug Martin*+    113.0    25.3
11.4    57.0    -216.0    Matt Moore    57.0    
11.3    162.0    -27.0    Brandon LaFell    103.7    5.3
11.3    124.0    -33.0    Karlos Williams    113.0    
11.1    74.0    -83.0    Zach Zenner    27.3    3.0
11.1    166.3    9.3    Latavius Murray*    136.0    26.3
11.1    166.0    76.0    Zach Ertz    95.7    76.0
11.1    147.3    -9.7    Rashad Jennings    116.0    4.3
10.9    145.3    -11.7    Theo Riddick    89.7    0.0
10.9    147.0    -10.0    T.J. Yeldon    104.0    0.0
10.9    123.3    33.3    Julius Thomas*    83.7    33.3
10.8    133.3    -55.7    Dontrelle Inman    62.0    10.3
10.8    129.0    -28.0    Jay Ajayi    112.0    25.5
10.7    171.7    -17.3    Mike Wallace    112.3    11.7
10.7    171.5    14.5    Isaiah Crowell    142.0    14.0
10.7    150.0    -7.0    Chris Ivory*    127.3    21.3
10.5    112.3    -44.7    Ryan Mathews    98.3    0.0
10.5    80.3    -9.7    Dennis Pitta    39.7    -9.7
10.3    151.3    -5.7    LeGarrette Blount    143.7    29.7
10.3    120.0    -69.0    Victor Cruz    75.0    0.0
10.3    79.0    -194.0    Cody Kessler    79.0    
10.3    92.3    -64.7    Spencer Ware    79.7    8.0
10.2    115.7    -41.3    Carlos Hyde    99.0    9.3
10.2    163.0    -26.0    Jamison Crowder    100.0    3.0
10.2    152.7    -36.3    Davante Adams    98.3    16.3
10.2    61.0    -96.0    C.J. Prosise    44.0    
10.1    118.3    -70.7    Kendall Wright    77.7    0.0
10.0    103.7    -53.3    Jacquizz Rodgers    45.3    2.0
10.0    160.5    -28.5    Cole Beasley    97.0    0.0
10.0    160.0    70.0    Jason Witten*    90.0    70.0
10.0    153.0    -36.0    John Brown    102.3    6.0
10.0    153.0    -4.0    Darren Sproles*    104.0    0.0
10.0    103.0    -54.0    Charles Sims    71.7    2.0
9.9    96.0    6.0    Zach Miller    52.3    6.0
9.9    152.0    -37.0    Michael Floyd    106.7    0.0
9.9    118.7    -70.3    Brian Quick    46.7    7.7
9.8    153.3    -35.7    Kenny Britt    102.7    3.0
9.8    120.7    -36.3    Shane Vereen    80.0    0.0
9.7    133.0    43.0    Kyle Rudolph    81.0    43.0
9.7    110.0    -79.0    Eddie Royal    66.0    0.0
9.7    126.0    -63.0    Eli Rogers    78.0    
9.6    154.0    -3.0    Duke Johnson    97.0    0.0
9.5    133.0    -24.0    Robert Kelley    121.0    
9.5    63.0    -94.0    Matt Jones    54.0    0.0
9.4    128.7    -60.3    Rishard Matthews    88.7    10.0
9.4    131.7    41.7    Charles Clay    76.3    41.7
9.4    103.0    -54.0    Thomas Rawls    92.0    0.0
9.4    78.0    -79.0    Tevin Coleman    67.0    7.7
9.3    134.0    -55.0    Robert Woods    79.7    0.0
9.3    143.3    -45.7    Tavon Austin    96.3    5.3
9.3    28.0    -245.0    Paxton Lynch    28.0    
9.3    90.0    -67.0    Reggie Bush    29.7    2.9
9.3    93.0    -96.0    Corey Coleman    60.0    
9.3    98.7    -58.3    Kenjon Barner    14.3    9.7
9.2    117.0    -40.0    Andre Ellington    70.0    14.0
9.2    144.0    -45.0    Kenny Stills    100.0    2.7
9.1    97.3    -59.7    Ronnie Hillman    80.0    4.7
9.1    146.0    56.0    Coby Fleener    94.3    56.0
9.1    124.0    -65.0    Donte Moncrief    82.0    0.0
9.0    111.3    -45.7    Shaun Draughn    44.3    0.6
9.0    98.7    -58.3    James White    63.7    3.7
9.0    107.5    -49.5    Tim Hightower    90.5    0.0
8.9    143.0    -14.0    Devontae Booker    112.0    
8.9    140.0    -49.0    Mohamed Sanu    90.7    0.0
8.9    138.5    -50.5    Tyler Lockett*+    92.5    0.0
8.9    89.0    -68.0    Mike Gillislee    81.5    0.0
8.9    142.0    -47.0    Terrance Williams    97.7    0.0
8.9    124.0    -33.0    Bilal Powell    85.3    0.7
8.8    132.0    42.0    Hunter Henry    96.0    42.0
8.8    132.0    42.0    Gary Barnidge    83.0    42.0
8.8    136.0    -137.0    Brian Hoyer    136.0    
8.7    122.0    -67.0    Will Fuller    75.0    
8.7    91.5    -65.5    Ty Montgomery    62.0    0.0
8.7    127.3    -61.7    Torrey Smith    93.3    6.3
8.6    132.3    -56.7    Travis Benjamin    88.0    1.0
8.5    102.0    -55.0    Kenneth Dixon    72.0    
8.4    126.5    -62.5    DeVante Parker    85.5    0.0
8.3    110.3    20.3    Eric Ebron    66.0    20.3
8.2    49.0    -224.0    EJ Manuel    49.0    
8.1    103.0    -44.0    Terrance West    102.0    
8.0    125.7    -63.3    Ted Ginn    88.3    5.3
8.0    72.0    -85.0    Ameer Abdullah    57.0    0.0
8.0    111.5    -45.5    Jeremy Langford    91.0    2.0
7.9    123.3    -33.7    Matt Asiata    91.7    10.3
7.8    109.0    -48.0    Jerick McKinnon    78.7    0.0
7.8    124.0    -65.0    Tyler Boyd    70.0    
7.7    100.7    -88.3    Marqise Lee    62.3    0.0
7.7    79.3    -77.7    Chris Johnson    69.3    0.0
7.6    99.0    -90.0    Andrew Hawkins    58.0    0.0
7.6    113.5    -43.5    Charcandrick West    89.5    0.0
7.5    97.0    -92.0    JJ Nelson    74.5    0.0
7.4    116.7    -72.3    Jermaine Kearse    74.0    0.0
7.4    101.3    -55.7    James Starks    74.7    0.0
7.4    115.3    -73.7    Marvin Jones    121.3    5.3
7.3    99.3    -57.7    Rex Burkhead    29.0    15.1
7.3    116.0    -41.0    Jalen Richard    87.0    
7.2    115.0    -74.0    Robby Anderson    73.0    
7.2    81.3    -8.7    Cameron Brate    54.3    -8.7
7.1    99.0    -90.0    Taylor Gabriel    66.0    0.0
7.1    106.0    -51.0    Derrick Henry    93.0    
7.1    108.3    -48.7    Alfred Morris    98.3    17.3
7.0    112.0    -77.0    Seth Roberts    77.0    0.0
7.0    112.0    -77.0    Kamar Aiken    69.3    0.0
7.0    109.0    -80.0    Chris Hogan    70.7    0.0
7.0    97.3    7.3    Jared Cook    57.0    7.3
6.9    97.0    -92.0    Adam Humphries    56.0    0.0
6.9    96.0    -93.0    Malcolm Mitchell    64.0    
6.8    66.0    -91.0    DuJuan Harris    20.7    2.8
6.8    99.0    9.0    Will Tye    54.0    9.0
6.7    84.0    -6.0    Vance McDonald    57.0    -6.0
6.6    55.3    -34.7    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    37.0    -34.7
6.6    53.0    -220.0    Jared Goff    53.0    
6.6    88.0    -2.0    Dwayne Allen    61.3    -2.0
6.6    101.0    -56.0    Bobby Rainey    33.0    1.8
6.6    105.0    -84.0    Tajae Sharpe    64.0    
6.5    100.0    -89.0    Dorial Green-Beckham    66.0    0.0
6.4    80.5    -9.5    Ryan Griffin    45.5    -9.5
6.4    90.0    -99.0    Danny Amendola    51.7    0.0
6.4    32.0    -125.0    Cameron Artis-Payne    29.0    0.0
6.4    98.5    -58.5    Aaron Ripkowski    21.0    1.4
6.3    101.0    -88.0    Breshad Perriman    68.0    
6.2    96.0    -93.0    Devin Funchess    69.0    0.0
6.1    85.0    -72.0    DeAndre Washington    68.0    
6.0    90.3    -66.7    Alfred Blue    76.3    0.0
6.0    96.0    -93.0    Jeremy Kerley    56.7    0.0
6.0    36.0    -237.0    Jimmy Garoppolo    36.0    
6.0    67.7    -121.3    Justin Hunter    47.7    0.0
5.9    94.7    4.7    Richard Rodgers    58.7    4.7
5.7    70.7    -86.3    Travaris Cadet    39.0    0.0
5.7    62.7    -94.3    Christine Michael    54.0    0.0
5.7    85.0    -5.0    Vernon Davis    49.0    -5.0
5.6    72.5    -116.5    Phillip Dorsett    47.0    0.0
5.5    86.0    -4.0    Lance Kendricks    48.5    -4.0
5.5    88.7    -68.3    Kyle Juszczyk    37.7    14.7
5.5    77.0    -80.0    Paul Perkins    62.0    
5.4    84.0    -6.0    Clive Walford    53.5    -6.0
5.4    77.7    -111.3    Corey Brown    51.3    0.0
5.4    86.0    -103.0    Adam Thielen    56.3    2.3
5.3    73.0    -84.0    Robert Turbin    56.7    0.0
5.3    32.0    -241.0    Bryce Petty    32.0    
5.2    75.0    -82.0    Benny Cunningham    46.0    0.0
5.2    73.0    -116.0    Albert Wilson    45.7    0.0
5.2    67.3    -89.7    Denard Robinson    51.7    0.0
5.1    71.5    -117.5    Nelson Agholor    42.0    0.0
5.1    81.0    -108.0    Andre Holmes    56.0    0.0
4.9    58.5    -31.5    Jesse James    35.0    -31.5
4.8    36.0    -237.0    Landry Jones    36.0    
4.7    66.0    -24.0    Austin Hooper    47.0    -24.0
4.6    65.0    -25.0    Maxx Williams    33.0    -25.0
4.4    54.7    -102.3    Orleans Darkwa    20.3    6.0
4.4    44.0    -145.0    Geronimo Allison    32.0    
4.4    70.0    -119.0    Cordarrelle Patterson    41.0    0.0
4.4    70.0    -119.0    Chris Conley    39.5    0.0
4.3    66.7    -90.3    Jamize Olawale    28.0    6.3
4.2    65.3    -91.7    Damien Williams    43.7    0.0
4.1    45.3    -111.7    Lance Dunbar    27.0    0.0
4.1    49.0    -108.0    Dwayne Washington    39.0    
4.1    51.7    -137.3    Brice Butler    35.3    0.0
4.0    61.7    -28.3    C.J. Fiedorowicz    36.7    -28.3
4.0    41.0    -148.0    Paul Richardson    24.0    0.0
3.8    40.0    -149.0    Sammie Coates    29.0    0.0
3.8    50.3    -106.7    Jonathan Grimes    35.3    0.0
3.6    47.0    -110.0    Wendell Smallwood    41.0    
3.5    48.3    -108.7    Fozzy Whittaker    34.3    0.0
3.3    36.0    -121.0    Alex Collins    25.0    
3.2    17.0    -140.0    Kerwynn Williams    16.0    0.0
3.1    43.5    -46.5    Virgil Green    26.5    -46.5
2.9    35.0    -55.0    Seth Devalve    25.0    -55.0
2.8    37.0    -120.0    Kenneth Farrow    24.0    
2.4    29.0    -128.0    Ka'Deem Carey    24.7    0.0
2.4    36.0    -121.0    Peyton Barber    31.0    
2.3    36.0    -121.0    Josh Ferguson    16.0    
2.2    14.0    -143.0    Kapri Bibbs    13.0    0.0
1.6    26.0    -64.0    Tyler Higbee    15.0    -64.0
 
Had an error on Peterson with Feterson that I fixed. 

 

[opensourcebeer]

Judging by these rankings, Michael Thomas is going to be the most overhyped player in fantasy this offseason. If I owned him, I'd be looking to cash that chip in if this is how he's valued. 

Tbh I was thinking the same thing about Watkins.

 

[Biabreakable]

Tbh I was thinking the same thing about Watkins.

Watkins is 77th in the PPG ranking and lower than that in the VBD ranking. Which does cause me to question my gut ranking of him, which is much higher, and based more or pre draft evaluation than anything else.

Watkins does have 12 or so very good games played in the NFL out of the 37 he has played in. 16 of his games were as a rookie, so if you only looked at the last two seasons, his numbers look a bit stronger, although he did play several games not fully healthy in 2016.

Still at some point that's a bunch of excuses and Watkins still hasn't put together a strong season yet in 3 years. So it may be past due that I rank him closer to the level he has performed at. My gut just tells me some big seasons for him still ahead. He turns 24 in June.

Where do you think Watkins should be ranked?

 

[ZWK]

Watkins is 77th in the PPG ranking and lower than that in the VBD ranking. Which does cause me to question my gut ranking of him, which is much higher, and based more or pre draft evaluation than anything else.

Watkins does have 12 or so very good games played in the NFL out of the 37 he has played in. 16 of his games were as a rookie, so if you only looked at the last two seasons, his numbers look a bit stronger, although he did play several games not fully healthy in 2016.

Still at some point that's a bunch of excuses and Watkins still hasn't put together a strong season yet in 3 years. So it may be past due that I rank him closer to the level he has performed at. My gut just tells me some big seasons for him still ahead. He turns 24 in June.

Where do you think Watkins should be ranked?

He was the #9 WR in 2015 (PPR, PPG, min 8 games), between Allen Robinson and Larry Fitzgerald. Seems plenty strong to me.

 

[Biabreakable]

He was the #9 WR in 2015 (PPR, PPG, min 8 games), between Allen Robinson and Larry Fitzgerald. Seems plenty strong to me.

He definitely put up a very strong string of games in the second half of the 2015 season, which is when you would expect a WR to make progress, some time in their second season. Then being injured again in 2016 he wasn't able to build on that.

I think you can find a lot of players who will do well in PPG stats over small sample sizes (less than a full season).

According to the numbers I just put together (looking at the 3 year average) and points per game that includes every game players played from 2014-2016.

Keenan Allen has scored 22.1 points per game pver the last 3 seasons. Sammy Watkins 13.5/ Allen does have the advantage of not including his rookie season numbers into that while Watkins does, and Watkins played 16 games as a rookie, compared to 21 games he has played since his rookie season, so the rookie year is almost 50% of this sample.

By these numbers (every game played for the past 3 years) Sammy Watkins is the 77th overall player over the past 3 years in point per game, which is not very strong.

As I said I believe in Watkins, that is why I have him ranked so high in gtth rankings despite the evidence telling me he should be ranked a lot lower than that. I do think Watkins is capable of putting up big numbers, and his 12 or so very solid games are compelling evidence that he can do that. At the same time, he hasn't put it all together yet, so it likely isn't wise for me to reach for a player who hasn't proven themselves worth such a high pick on investment.

In my gut rankings, I have Watkins at 13th overall, I have Hopkins 12th. 13th is a far cry from 77th and therefore my ranking for Watkins should come down some to split that difference I think, meaning Watkins should be in the 20 to 30 range (or later) not in the top 20.

 

[Tau837]

^And how has Watkins' performance varied with Tyrod vs. without? He may soon be without, replacement unknown. IMO that has to affect his value right now.