The Elite: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning - Rodgers has earned the #1 spot. He's the youngest, the best threat to run (especially in the red zone), he was #1 in '09, he was the most consistent in '09, and he has proven his durability. Brees over Manning because of the real threat that you might not have Manning for week 16 and Brees is younger. These are the best of the set and forget it QBs, locks to be top 5 for just about as long as they play.
Just off the elite pace: Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Tom Brady - These QBs will give you an edge over everyone except the elite QBs, and they'll give you some elite weeks along the way. Romo was almost tier 1 worthy in most formats after Miles Austin became the starter opposite Roy Williams in week 5. Rivers is here instead of tier 1 because he's just not an explosive talent when it comes to the box scores. Rivers is an excellent fantasy starter, but he'll never put up season-long numbers close to the elite tier. Schaub is third in this tier only because his injury list is longer than anyone in the top 5. Schaub's 2009 stats are actually better than any Tier 2 QB, and almost deserving of Tier 1 designation. Brady is looking at 2010 without Welker for a spell, and then no Randy Moss in 2011, so he has fallen out of the top 5, and he was also affected by injuries last year - he might not be as durable as the others in the tier.
Position Solved, but lacking elite upside: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning - This pair of QBs really hit their fantasy stride last year, and they are surrounded by a good supporting cast and an offenses that are turning from run-first into QB-centric. It's doubtful that either will ever approach elite numbers, but they represent the last "safe" everyweek starters. Still, if either one was the best QB on my roster, I would be looking to upgrade to a Schaub or Romo.
Could become an answer, could continue to disappoint: Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan - Both of these young QBs have given fantasy owners reasons to get all hot and bothered, but are yet to become consistent, productive QBs. Cutler needs to overcome his penchant for going off-script and devolving into Jake Delhomme-esque interception binges, and Ryan doesn't appear to have the deep ball arm strength or eerily precise execution to become a strong fantasy play (yet). Cutler paired with Martz could unlock his potential and get him back to 2008 production levels, but it could also cinch his reputation as a coach-killer. While both are very strong backup fantasy options, this is probably a good time to try to sell to the most optimistic owner in your league if you have a better QB to play regularly.
Been Elite, but will they return?: Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer - These are the puzzling QBs whose beauty is in the eye of the beholder. McNabb has one year left in Philly (at best), he could easily end up in a less pass-happy offense and start the slow decline, or even worse, end up in a football graveyard like Cleveland. Perhaps he could emulate a QB he often reminds me of - Brett Favre - and put up some of this his best numbers in the twilight of his career. There's no guarantee that he even starts for Philly in week 1 this year. His inconsistent week-to-week performances make him a dicey everyweek start anyway. Might be time to pull the ripcord if you can find a QB poor team as a dance partner in the trade market. Palmer is especially befuddling. Early in the 09 season, he was looking more like the Palmer that was the #1 overall fantasy QB earlier in his career. Then Chris Henry went on IR (RIP) and the team decided to play the soft underbelly of their schedule like they didn't want to get accused of running up the score and had a plane to catch, so they just took the air out of the ball. Palmer has only one legit weapon now, and I suspect that his throwing elbow still isn't right. On the other hand, it's hard to deny that Palmer has flashed ability and production close to the elite tier when he's on point, and 30 isn't really that old for a QB. I have a feeling Palmer will be back in the top 10 fantasy QBs before his career is over, but don't ask me when that is going to happen.
The Future: Matthew Stafford, Vince Young, Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman - Here are your QBs outside of the top 10 that are most likely to be there in the near future. Stafford tops the list because of his raw throwing and improv talent, playing with Calvin Johnson, and playing on a team that will often have him in catch-up mode. I also believe in Stafford and think he'll come close to hitting his ceiling. Ah what a loop VY has thrown us for already. I totally believed he could redefine the QB position and set a new bar for fantasy after his astounding rookie year, then we had to wonder if he was even mentally cut out for the NFL in 2008. Last year, he made great strides as a passer, and he now has Chris Johnson to distract defenses, and better weapons in the passing game than he in 06 or 07. Kolb is third only because he is still not a sure thing to contribute anything this year. If you're talking likelihood of hitting the top 10 in the future, Kolb might be #1 in this tier. I wouldn't blame anyone for overpaying for Kolb right now, his value is going to spike as soon as McNabb is gone. Freeman's great playmaking ability, competitiveness, and better than advertised running ability were overshadowed by a terrible season for the Bucs, but he has the look of a future fantasy starter.
The Future, but it isn't as bright: Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, Matt Cassel, Matt Moore - These young guns don't quite have the scheme or abilities of the guys in the tier above them and project as future strong backups or QBBC guys instead of possible future top 10 options. Sanchez has some great weapons and made strides as the season went on, as did Henne, but he lacks weapons, while Flacco actually backslid after a hot start in a second year that saw him get more freedom in the offense. Cassel is still in the early part of his development and he could make strides in year 2 in KC, but so far he hasn't looked better than Tyler Thigpen did in 2008. Moore is last on the list only because he has to deal with the Fox Factor and Delhomme, and might not have worth this year. I would trade any of these guys this offseason (except Moore) if someone comes calling because they are optimistic about their future. The key for QBs to have future value is actually being consistently startable. If a QB doesn't hit that level of production, he isn't much better than the WW pickup of the week because they will simply become depth, which isn't that hard to come by except in deep leagues or 2 QB leagues. Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen belong in this tier.
QB Palookaville: Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Kyle Orton, Matt Leinart, David Garrard - This set of QBs are all probably one poor season away from becoming NFL backups. They are ranked in order of the flashes they've shown in the past and likelihood of getting a chance to start on their next team. Campbell endures yet another OC change this year and Shanny isn't that impressed with him. Sometimes he looks like a franchise QB, sometimes he looks crippled with indecision. Smith has a great array of young weapons, but it sounds like the 49ers are not sold on him. Orton is good enough to not lose his job, but not good enough to keep the Broncos from looking to upgrade. Leinart is just underwhelming and I expect the Cards to move on from him in the next two years. Garrard's removal as the starter is probably the most foregone conclusion - the Jags seem convinced that he can't get them any farther than he already has. All of this group can help with depth, but their value is precarious. If you are sold on any of these guys as good future options, now is the time to strike with trade offers.
He just won't go away: Brett Favre - In a tier by himself, and his value is dependent on your team's status. Sanchez your best QB, but you are otherwise looking good? Trade him for Favre and go for the gold. Campbell your best QB, but you are in rebuilding mode? no way you'd trade for Favre. For the record, I do expect him to return, but I think his production will be lower than it was in 2009.
Life Preservers for struggling teams: Bruce Gradkowski, Matt Hasselbeck, Michael Vick, Brady Quinn- All of these QBs either will start in 2010, or have a shot to start soon, but their chances of ever having fantasy relevance are somewhat low. Gradkowski is maybe the most intriguing QB in this group, because he breathed life into a dead pass offense, and he has some Garcia-esque qualities. He strikes me as a good offseason trade target in deep leagues, but Russell and the loyalty to his big paycheck looms. Hasselbeck was the QB for the offense that had the most passing attempts in the league and he still wasn't valuable last year. Vick looked like his trademark elite athleticism was gone. Quinn can only flourish in a conservative offense, which won't produce fantasy numbers.
Tomorrow's flavor of the week: Josh Johnson, Tyler Thigpen, Troy Smith, Dennis Dixon, Nate Davis, Tarvaris Jackson - Now we are to your prospects, guys who have either shown something, have good buzz, or have a good opportunity coming up soon. Johnson is well thought of around the league and didn't back down from the toughness of the game even though his accuracy needs some work. Thigpen's value could take a big leap if he's reunited with Chan Gailey in Buffalo, although the league was catching up to them at the end of the 08 season after he posted some gaudy numbers. Troy Smith's agent wants a trade, and Smith didn't look bad when he got on the field at the end of his rookie 2007 season. Dixon was impressive in his one start against the vicious Ravens, showing poise and great running ability. Davis hasn't done anything yet, but the 49ers are not sold on Alex Smith. Jackson has looked like a QB of limited ability when he has started, but he seems to have progressed some while Favre has been starting, and he could get a shot in Minny or elsewhere down the line. Any of these guys should be more appealing than the life preservers if you are in rebuilding mode, have good depth at QB already, or play in a shallow league.
Roster filler in deep leagues: This group could re-order itself at any time with offseason news, and I'm open to takes to persuade me to move someone up, include someone who isn't in the top 60, or exclude someone who is on this list. The group is topped by Pat White, who has a chance to become a contributor somewhere other than QB because of his speed and open-field running ability, and Stephen McGee, my favorite developmental prospect. You have a large group of guys who could revive their career, stranger things have happened - Bulger, Rosenfels, Anderson, Carr, Russell, Edwards, Leftwich, Hill - any of these QBs could appeal to a team that thinks that they can fix them or improve on their most recent performances. Bulger and Rosenfels are the most likely to start soon, but also the most likely to have almost no value in the near future. Anderson, Carr, and Russell have a ton of ability if a team can ever get them right. Edwards, Leftwich, and Hill have caps on the effectiveness of their games and probably top out as caretaker QBs in any scenario. Then you have the longshots - Brohm, Null, Teel, and Brandstater top the list of this group because of opportunity in their organization (as of right now), and you have Brodie Croyle, who actually looked decent in week 1 last year, but has the durability of a Chinese plastic toy, Caleb Hanie, who just might click with Martz, you never know, and Charlie Whitehurst, the mystery man who SD kept as a third QB for four years but probably won't protect in FA this year. The last bit of the top 60 includes Ryan Fitzpatrick, who at least isn't overwhelmed by NFL competition some of the time, Jake Delhomme who should be on the Jon Kitna career path any moment now, Billy Volek, who actually looked great in the 08 playoffs, but is turning 34 in April, Charlie Frye, who showed signs of life at the end of last season, and Kevin O'Connell, who should push Kellen Clemens to back up Mark Sanchez this year.
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