[DYNASTY] Rank the top 15 rookie RB's (1 Viewer)

[Miscellaneous]

FWIW, here's not only my ranking of the backs compared to one another, but their potential, IMO. (all projections barring complete bust; i.e. either they fulfill the potential I put down, or they completely crap out of the league in a couple years)

Stud

1. Ronnie Brown: far and away the top of my list. Potential to be top-5 for the foreseeable future with the right team, no worse than top-15 regardless of team.

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Potential studs

2. Cedric Benson: haven't seen as much of him as I have the other two top-3'ers, but I love the grit, power, and every-downness of this guy. Jamal Lewis-type potential - a top-15 back who, if his team really needs him, could grind through a truly epic season... but that's only in the right situation.

3. Carnell Williams: I'm not nearly as high on this guy as the other two... but then again, I had the same gut feeling about Deuce McAllister. So take that with a grain of salt.

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Middle of the pack

4. Marion Barber III: the kind of solid prospect some GM's going to love having on his resume when their team picks him up in the 2nd rd. Y'know, the kind of guy who looks good when you draft him, better when he shows up for camp, and f'n great when he starts to take carries away from your starter? Given the right situation, he could be top-10 for a few years, top-15 or top-20 for most of his career.

5. Ciatrick Fason: I'm a Gator, so there's some homerism here... but I also recognize his great potential for not doing a d... thing. He's got a lot of physical talent, but he could very easily not show up and fade out of the league in a couple of years. Or he could explode and be a top-10 guy.

6. Vernand Morency: eh... he'll be dependable if he ever makes it off the bench.

7. Eric Shelton: could make it in the right situation, or just be 'one of the best backups in the league.'

8. J.J. Arrington: potential, potential, potential... could be a guy who shows up in the top-10 a couple of times, or you could never see him realize any of it.

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Guys I'm going to enjoy picking up in the later part of my rookie draft and crossing my fingers for

9. Ryan Moats

10. Frank Gore

11. Maurice Clarett

12. Sproles

13. TA McClendon

14. Harris

15. Jacobs

On the outside looking in: Reyes just didn't make the cut, he'll be another of my later-round pickups if he lasts that long; Houston just doesn't do it for me. Maybe it's the fact that I'm a Gator.

I'm hoping the guys in my draft sleep on Gore, Clarett, or Sproles, specifically, because they're guys who I think have a world of talent and a couple of huge question marks that could give you great risk-reward if they pan out, and wouldn't cost you that much in the draft.

 

[EBF]

This is a tough RB class to gauge. Last year I saw Kevin Jones as being the clear #1 from his class, but I don't see that guy this year. A strong case can be made for all of the top three backs, but none of them stands out as being obviously superior IMO. They're all neck and neck in my eyes. With that said, here are my current rankings:

First Tier

1. Cadillac Williams - Quickness kills in the NFL. When in doubt, I go with the back with the best quickness. Cadillac isn't huge and he doesn't have elite speed, but he's big enough to be a featured RB and he has the skills and attitude to be around for a long time. He reminds me a lot of Curtis Martin.

2. Ronnie Brown - I think he's probaby the riskiest of the top three RBs simply because he's not extremely elusive. Nevertheless, he has quick feet and an impressive combination of physical abilities. He has more upside than any other RB in this draft, although I think he comes with more risk than what's acknowledged.

3. Cedric Benson - I used to dog him a bit, but I think he's pretty solid. He doesn't have great lateral agility in the open field, but he has good acceleration and he's able to shake off a lot of arm tackles. He has a compact build and a track record of success against top competition. I think he can step in right away and be a 300 carries at 4.0 YPC guy for an NFL team, although I don't see him as a gamebreaking back.

Second Tier

4. Marion Barber III - Barber is a well-built power back who was very productive in college. He's a punishing runner between the tackles, but he's not elusive and he won't break a lot of long runs. He wouldn't be a good fit for every NFL team, but he has the skills to excel as a power back for a team like the Steelers or Panthers. He's comparable to Travis Henry, although a bit bigger and probably not quite as quick.

Third Tier

5. Ciatrick Fason - He's a bit of a size/quickness tweener and I'm not sure if he has enough of either to make it at the next level. However, he was a top recruit for Florida and he produced when given carries. He would've been better served with another year in college, but he has a chance to become a starter at the next level. He's not a sure thing, but he's probably more talented than all of the backs listed below him here.

6. Vernand Morency - Moency lacks elite stopwatch speed, but he breaks a lot of long runs. He has pretty good quickness and enough size to be a #1 runner. He makes it look easy on the field and he'd be a solid pickup for a team seeking a backup runner with the potential to develop into an adequate starter.

7. JJ Arrington - Arrington is a compact back who shows good quickness to the hole. He was tremendously productive as a senior in college and he figures to be a pretty early pick on draft day, but I can't help but feel that there's something missing with him. I think he'll be a solid change of pace back in the NFL, but I'll be surprised if he develops into an exceptional player.

8. Ryan Moats - Moats is another compact back. He has good speed, quickness, and athletic ability. He's one of the better RB sleepers in this draft and he could develop into a surprisingly productive pro.

Fourth Tier

9. TA McLendon - Poor workout numbers combined with poor durability will cause him to slip in the draft. He has the inherent skills needed to make it in the NFL, but he doesn't show the drive to be great. He's a decent gamble for cheap, but don't count on him succeeding.

10. Cedric Houston - Houston has #1 RB size and a track record of success for a major college program. However, he is considered a straight line runner without the elusiveness of a top back. He could be one of the surprises from this class, but there's presently no reason to believe that he's a star in waiting.

11. Maurice Clarett - Clarett has gone through a lot of adversity in the past year and you have to wonder if it will be his downfall. As a runner he has good instincts and power. He's not blazing fast and he's not going to make a lot of people miss in the open field, but he's quick to the hole and he makes good cuts. He's worth a shot in this range, although he obviously comes with a lot of risk.

12. Eric Shelton - Shelton is an oversized back who will go surprisingly high on draft day. He's a good player, but the track record of big backs in the NFL is pretty bad and I don't think Shelton will be the one to buck that trend.

13. Kay Jay Harris - A bigger back with good measurables, Harris could be an effective change of pace runner ala TJ Duckett. However, it is unlikely that he will ever be a full-time player in the NFL.

Fifth Tier

14. Frank Gore - This year's Quincy Wilson, Gore lacks the quickness and explosion to justify his pre-draft hype. He's a marginal power back whose only chance to make it is if he somehow regains some of his old speed. Judging by his workout numbers, that's not going to happen.

15. Darren Sproles - Sproles is probably too small to carry the load in the NFL. Nevertheless, he was a star in college and he could make an impact on a team with a creative offensive coordinator.

 

[Chris Smith]

What I'm saying is... every year, we say the same thing over and over again... 'this guy has "can't miss" talent'

Guess what, they do miss! Every stinkin' year!

Chris Perry, Greg Jones, William Green, Mo Morris, Ladell Betts, Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, Kevin Faulk, Mike Cloud, Jermaine Fazande, Curtis Enis, John Avery, Robert Holcombe, Byron Hanspard, Tim Biakabutuka, Leeland McElroy... you guys would have listed all these former 1st and 2nd rounders as "can't miss" too!

I'm not denying that some of these guys are talented, and some team is gonna find a gem in the later rounds, but c'mon, they can't ALL be studs in the making. It just doesn't work out that easily!

Sorry but of the guys you mentioned here only Dayne

Biakabutuka

*EDIT - Sorry Enis should be mentioned here as well.

looked like no brainers coming out..

Greg Jones was exciting but had his issues as did the rest of them.

This year's draft class for RB's is very exciting. Best depth I have ever seen on draft day.

 

[Chris Smith]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around. I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year. Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true. For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's. The list is huge. So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's. I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

In a redraft league, you are bang on. However if we are talking about Dynasty Leagues, this is as strong as a draft for the running back position as we've had in a long time (I don't believe we have ever seen one this solid).

Will all of these players make an impact as a rookie? No likely not as many will go to situations such as McAllister did a few years back and Jackson/Perry did last year. However in a few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these guys getting significant playing time.

 

[EBF]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around.  I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year.  Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true.  For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's.  The list is huge.  So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's.  I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

In a redraft league, you are bang on. However if we are talking about Dynasty Leagues, this is as strong as a draft for the running back position as we've had in a long time (I don't believe we have ever seen one this solid).

Will all of these players make an impact as a rookie? No likely not as many will go to situations such as McAllister did a few years back and Jackson/Perry did last year. However in a few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these guys getting significant playing time.

I think the top three backs are solid, but I don't see anything about the middle tiers that makes this draft exceptional. Sure, guys like Morency and Fason are promising, but are they any better than a lot of the other rounds 2-4 backs in prior years? I don't think so. In fact, I think 2003 had a much stronger second tier with Onterrio Smith, Chris Brown, Justin Fargas, Domanick Davis, and Lee Suggs.

 

[cstu]

You want to know why this year's RB class is so good? Check out this LINK

Sure, this is one person's rankings but 13 out of the top 19 college RB's are in this year's draft. Every top junior declared except for DeAngelo Williams and the only reason he didn't is because he was injured in his bowl game.

Next year will have much less depth since the best seniors will be Williams, DonTrell Moore, De'Arrius Howard, Lonta Hobbs, PJ Daniels, Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, and Josh Allen.

 

[Chris Smith]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around.  I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year.  Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true.  For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's.  The list is huge.  So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's.  I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

In a redraft league, you are bang on. However if we are talking about Dynasty Leagues, this is as strong as a draft for the running back position as we've had in a long time (I don't believe we have ever seen one this solid).

Will all of these players make an impact as a rookie? No likely not as many will go to situations such as McAllister did a few years back and Jackson/Perry did last year. However in a few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these guys getting significant playing time.

I think the top three backs are solid, but I don't see anything about the middle tiers that makes this draft exceptional. Sure, guys like Morency and Fason are promising, but are they any better than a lot of the other rounds 2-4 backs in prior years? I don't think so. In fact, I think 2003 had a much stronger second tier with Onterrio Smith, Chris Brown, Justin Fargas, Domanick Davis, and Lee Suggs.

That's where we disagree. Last year some promising underclassman decided to come back to school and this year's promising underclassman decided to come out. As a result we have an overabundance of talent at this position. When you can rank guys like Clarett and Sproles as far down as they are being ranked, this is a very strong draft.

 

[EBF]

You want to know why this year's RB class is so good? Check out this LINK

Sure, this is one person's rankings but 13 out of the top 19 college RB's are in this year's draft. Every top junior declared except for DeAngelo Williams and the only reason he didn't is because he was injured in his bowl game.

Next year will have much less depth since the best seniors will be Williams, DonTrell Moore, De'Arrius Howard, Lonta Hobbs, PJ Daniels, Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, and Josh Allen.

Next year will be all about Williams, Maroney, and whichever USC back decides to jump. Lynell Hamilton will also be a factor and you can expect at least one "surprise" senior to rise ala Larry Johnson, Chris Perry, and JJ Arrington.

 

[Facenda's Voice]

Next year will have much less depth since the best seniors will be Williams, DonTrell Moore, De'Arrius Howard, Lonta Hobbs, PJ Daniels, Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, and Josh Allen.

Lookout for Lawerence Maroney next year. I'm sure he will jump to the NFL after his Junior yr.Lawrence Maroney - Minnesota

In only his sophomore season, Maroney has showcased many talents that will make him an NFL prospect. Maroney has great speed and the ability to break any run for a touchdown. He scored in all but two games this season, rushed for over six yards a carry, and is only 19 years old.

 

[Bloom]

You want to know why this year's RB class is so good?  Check out this LINK

Sure, this is one person's rankings but 13 out of the top 19 college RB's are in this year's draft.  Every top junior declared except for DeAngelo Williams and the only reason he didn't is because he was injured in his bowl game. 

Next year will have much less depth since the best seniors will be Williams, DonTrell Moore, De'Arrius Howard, Lonta Hobbs, PJ Daniels, Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, and Josh Allen.

Next year will be all about Williams, Maroney, and whichever USC back decides to jump. Lynell Hamilton will also be a factor and you can expect at least one "surprise" senior to rise ala Larry Johnson, Chris Perry, and JJ Arrington.

maroney is my odds on favorite to be the #1 fantasy rookie pick next year.

 

[EBF]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around.  I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year.  Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true.  For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's.  The list is huge.  So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's.  I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

In a redraft league, you are bang on. However if we are talking about Dynasty Leagues, this is as strong as a draft for the running back position as we've had in a long time (I don't believe we have ever seen one this solid).

Will all of these players make an impact as a rookie? No likely not as many will go to situations such as McAllister did a few years back and Jackson/Perry did last year. However in a few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these guys getting significant playing time.

I think the top three backs are solid, but I don't see anything about the middle tiers that makes this draft exceptional. Sure, guys like Morency and Fason are promising, but are they any better than a lot of the other rounds 2-4 backs in prior years? I don't think so. In fact, I think 2003 had a much stronger second tier with Onterrio Smith, Chris Brown, Justin Fargas, Domanick Davis, and Lee Suggs.

That's where we disagree. Last year some promising underclassman decided to come back to school and this year's promising underclassman decided to come out. As a result we have an overabundance of talent at this position. When you can rank guys like Clarett and Sproles as far down as they are being ranked, this is a very strong draft.

I might have agreed with you before the workout numbers starting coming in, but a lot of these guys have been exposed as mediocre physical specimens. I don't think Sproles and Clarett really support your hypothesis. Sproles is simply too small to be an elite pro RB. There are no starting RBs in the NFL who are that small and I don't think Sproles will be the one to break the trend. As for Clarett, I think he's underrated and I just realzied that I forgot him in my top 15, but the 4.8 forty is cause for concern. I know he can run faster, but he still appears borderline from a physical standpoint.

The bottom line for me is that the 2nd-4th round backs just don't look any better to me than they have in previous years. Name a RB from this year's middle tiers and I can easily list multiple flaws that he has as a runner. I would've had a harder time doing that for guys like Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Musa Smith, Lee Suggs, and Justin Fargas.

 

[Facenda's Voice]

You want to know why this year's RB class is so good?  Check out this LINK

Sure, this is one person's rankings but 13 out of the top 19 college RB's are in this year's draft.  Every top junior declared except for DeAngelo Williams and the only reason he didn't is because he was injured in his bowl game. 

Next year will have much less depth since the best seniors will be Williams, DonTrell Moore, De'Arrius Howard, Lonta Hobbs, PJ Daniels, Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, and Josh Allen.

Next year will be all about Williams, Maroney, and whichever USC back decides to jump. Lynell Hamilton will also be a factor and you can expect at least one "surprise" senior to rise ala Larry Johnson, Chris Perry, and JJ Arrington.

maroney is my odds on favorite to be the #1 fantasy rookie pick next year.

Mine too.

 

[Kit Fisto]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around. I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year. Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true. For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's. The list is huge. So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's. I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

Thank you JohnnyU!Anybody remember the Year of the QB? Culpepper, McNabb, Couch, McNown, Akili Smith...

Wasn't Tim Couch once "can't miss"?

All I'm saying guys, is temper your enthusiasm with the 15-deep RB draft boards. It ain't happenin'! Not every college "stud" or "can't miss" prospect makes it. It's just a fact of life bro's!

 

[cstu]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around.  I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year.  Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true.  For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's.  The list is huge.  So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's.  I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

Thank you JohnnyU!Anybody remember the Year of the QB? Culpepper, McNabb, Couch, McNown, Akili Smith...

Wasn't Tim Couch once "can't miss"?

All I'm saying guys, is temper your enthusiasm with the 15-deep RB draft boards. It ain't happenin'! Not every college "stud" or "can't miss" prospect makes it. It's just a fact of life bro's!

I don't think that just because it's a 15 deep RB draft board doesn't mean any of us are delusional about what these guys will become. About half will had very little if any impact in the NFL. However, I think the top 10 guys in my ranking have a shot at being starters. In what was supposed to be a weak draft for RB's in 2003, Dom Davis, O. Smith, Q. Griffin and Suggs were the 6-10 RB's drafted.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I have some different positions for you guys:1) Ronnie Brown is NOT the guy everyone around here thinks he is. He's big and he's fast and that will get him into the 1st round.But we are talking about a guy who has NEVER been a feature back. I'm not saying he can't be a feature back, but he hasn't done it yet. Being big and fast ALONE doesn't make a great NFL running back. It sure as heck helps, but that's not all there is to it. He's really not that slippery, which is what makes the great ones great - no matter what their speed or size.Where were all you pimps last year at this time? This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft. What happened since then? Another good year for Brown, yes. But he was still playing on a great team, and he was essentially the 2nd string guy. I'm sure all of you will claim that you were on the Brown bandwagon since his freshman year in High School, but the truth is that Brown was not particularly highly regarded last year at this time and now all of the sudden he's rated the best back in the class "by far" by nearly everyone here. I'd rather have Williams or Benson.2) This RB draft class isn't what it is cracked up to be either. It's good and fairly deep. Above average, but not great and not "the best in recent memory" etc.I think when it's all said and done, 2004 could end up a better class overall. 2002 is under-rated as well. 2001 was much better RB class IMO. 1999 was a lot better as well.As for rankings, top 15 is a crap shoot for me, but I'll say Williams, Benson, and Brown in that order at the top.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Where were all you pimps last year at this time? This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft.

He wasn't talked about much because he didn't declare and people don't focus on prospects in January. But I do remember that most scouts said that both Brown & Carnell would have gone above KJ & SJ, and that was a year ago when they were juniors whereas KJ was a senior.

 

[cstu]

Where were all you pimps last year at this time?  This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft.

He wasn't talked about much because he didn't declare and people don't focus on prospects in January. But I do remember that most scouts said that both Brown & Carnell would have gone above KJ & SJ, and that was a year ago when they were juniors whereas KJ was a senior.

KJ was a junior as well and I'm not so sure that Cadillac and Brown were ranked above KJ and SJ. KJ was an elite prospect that hurt himself by running a 4.6 40, scaring off a lot of teams.

 

[skycriesmary]

Ugh...did someone mention Curtis Enis...*phew* :X

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Where were all you pimps last year at this time? This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft.

He wasn't talked about much because he didn't declare and people don't focus on prospects in January. But I do remember that most scouts said that both Brown & Carnell would have gone above KJ & SJ, and that was a year ago when they were juniors whereas KJ was a senior.

KJ was a junior as well and I'm not so sure that Cadillac and Brown were ranked above KJ and SJ. KJ was an elite prospect that hurt himself by running a 4.6 40, scaring off a lot of teams.

My bad about the year. But I am quite certain that scouts broadly had Cadillac & Brown above both KJ & SJ a year ago.

 

[Finatic]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around. I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year. Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true. For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's. The list is huge. So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's. I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

In a redraft league, you are bang on. However if we are talking about Dynasty Leagues, this is as strong as a draft for the running back position as we've had in a long time (I don't believe we have ever seen one this solid).

Will all of these players make an impact as a rookie? No likely not as many will go to situations such as McAllister did a few years back and Jackson/Perry did last year. However in a few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these guys getting significant playing time.

I believe the rookie RB hype is at an all time high because the Dynasty format of FF is peaking right now.5 years ago you barely heard of anyone being in a keeper league let alone a Dynasty league.Now almost everyone is in at least one(I'm in 4 myself).This has added fuel to the rookie hype like we have never seen before.....

 

[Chris Smith]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around.  I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year.  Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true.  For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's.  The list is huge.  So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's.  I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

In a redraft league, you are bang on. However if we are talking about Dynasty Leagues, this is as strong as a draft for the running back position as we've had in a long time (I don't believe we have ever seen one this solid).

Will all of these players make an impact as a rookie? No likely not as many will go to situations such as McAllister did a few years back and Jackson/Perry did last year. However in a few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these guys getting significant playing time.

I believe the rookie RB hype is at an all time high because the Dynasty format of FF is peaking right now.5 years ago you barely heard of anyone being in a keeper league let alone a Dynasty league.Now almost everyone is in at least one(I'm in 4 myself).This has added fuel to the rookie hype like we have never seen before.....

That could be true. However I've been in a Dynasty League for years and to me, this RB draft is as good as they come. Perhaps not the elite back at the top of the board you may look for (Payton, Dickerson, Sanders, Tomlinson, A. Peterson in a couple of years) but there are a lot of playmakers in this group. I believe you are going to see a lot of these players make the grade and have successful pro careers.

 

[Finatic]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around. I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year. Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true. For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's. The list is huge. So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's. I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

In a redraft league, you are bang on. However if we are talking about Dynasty Leagues, this is as strong as a draft for the running back position as we've had in a long time (I don't believe we have ever seen one this solid).

Will all of these players make an impact as a rookie? No likely not as many will go to situations such as McAllister did a few years back and Jackson/Perry did last year. However in a few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these guys getting significant playing time.

I believe the rookie RB hype is at an all time high because the Dynasty format of FF is peaking right now.5 years ago you barely heard of anyone being in a keeper league let alone a Dynasty league.Now almost everyone is in at least one(I'm in 4 myself).This has added fuel to the rookie hype like we have never seen before.....

That could be true. However I've been in a Dynasty League for years and to me, this RB draft is as good as they come. Perhaps not the elite back at the top of the board you may look for (Payton, Dickerson, Sanders, Tomlinson, A. Peterson in a couple of years) but there are a lot of playmakers in this group. I believe you are going to see a lot of these players make the grade and have successful pro careers.

I agree Chris

 

[Uruk-Hai]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around.  I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year.  Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true.  For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's.  The list is huge.  So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's.  I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

In a redraft league, you are bang on. However if we are talking about Dynasty Leagues, this is as strong as a draft for the running back position as we've had in a long time (I don't believe we have ever seen one this solid).

Will all of these players make an impact as a rookie? No likely not as many will go to situations such as McAllister did a few years back and Jackson/Perry did last year. However in a few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised to see most of these guys getting significant playing time.

I believe the rookie RB hype is at an all time high because the Dynasty format of FF is peaking right now.5 years ago you barely heard of anyone being in a keeper league let alone a Dynasty league.Now almost everyone is in at least one(I'm in 4 myself).This has added fuel to the rookie hype like we have never seen before.....

And especially with the proliferation of deep dynasty leagues like Zealots, with its 53 player rosters. Larger rosters allow you to stash guys waiting on them to develop &, with RBs being gold in most leagues, that means there's a land-rush for them in rookie drafts. I fully expect 7-8 of the 12 first round rookie picks in Zealots this year to be RBs.

 

[Miscellaneous]

I have some different positions for you guys:

1) Ronnie Brown is NOT the guy everyone around here thinks he is. He's big and he's fast and that will get him into the 1st round.

But we are talking about a guy who has NEVER been a feature back. I'm not saying he can't be a feature back, but he hasn't done it yet. Being big and fast ALONE doesn't make a great NFL running back. It sure as heck helps, but that's not all there is to it. He's really not that slippery, which is what makes the great ones great - no matter what their speed or size.

Where were all you pimps last year at this time? This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft. What happened since then? Another good year for Brown, yes. But he was still playing on a great team, and he was essentially the 2nd string guy. I'm sure all of you will claim that you were on the Brown bandwagon since his freshman year in High School, but the truth is that Brown was not particularly highly regarded last year at this time and now all of the sudden he's rated the best back in the class "by far" by nearly everyone here. I'd rather have Williams or Benson.

Well, I can't speak for everybody else, but I said in my post that I'm a Gator. I've watched Auburn play quite a bit in the past couple of years, and throughout I kept hearing about how 'Cadillac' Williams was this great back, and he was going to kill the SEC and be a great back in the NFL - then I'd watch him in the game and he completely underwhelmed me. On the other hand, I kept seeing the back that he'd switch out with, and being like 'wow, that guy is good.' It wasn't until during this season that I started watching seriously (dynasty prep work), and I remember after watching him in the fifth or sixth game of the season that I hoped Cadillac would stay the #1 back, with Benson #2, and I'd find a way to get Ronnie Brown as the #3 guy who'd surprise everybody - now all of a sudden, I hit the boards and everybody is hyping him. On the plus side, that first rounder I traded for last year turned out to be the #1 pick in the draft. Sometimes things just work out.

Anyway, no, I haven't been following him since high school or anything, but I've got the same feeling about Brown that I had about Alexander coming out - 'heck, I watched him play the Gators, and I bet he's gonna be better than those other backs.'

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Where were all you pimps last year at this time?  This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft.

He wasn't talked about much because he didn't declare and people don't focus on prospects in January. But I do remember that most scouts said that both Brown & Carnell would have gone above KJ & SJ, and that was a year ago when they were juniors whereas KJ was a senior.

Rankings that include all of the juniors from 2004 draft are hard to find because most of them have been over-written etc. Another reason is that Brown frequently fails to make the list. But here are a few I found:http://www.nflfuture.com/osbornerankings.html

http://www.nflfuture.com/2004offense.html

http://www.draftshowcase.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.thehogs.net/Draft2004/top10/backs.php

http://nfldraft.ionichost.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.pfl-football.com/insidepfl/insidepflvol13.htm

http://saintsreport.com/newsdata/askmike/top68.htm

http://browns.scout.com/2/218803.html

http://draftnix.com/prospects/rb/rb.shtml

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/archiv...dex.php/t-23460

Brown is generally somewhere around 15th on these list (if he's on it at all). Williams is ranked much higher, but still more often than not below Steven Jackson. What we have going on here is called revisionist history.

 

[Bloom]

99: edge, ricky, kevin faulk, zereoue, garycomment: this is a horrible year for RB beyond edge and ricky00: Lewis, TJones, Dayne, Alexander, Canidate, SMorriscomment: nice first round, but thats it01: LT, Deuce, Atrain, jordan, henry, barlow, rudi, c-buckvery good #1 and #2, this class probably wont match that, but 1-7, this class can definitely hang.02: WGreen, Duckett, Foster, MMorris, Betts, Gordon, Westbrook, Wells, Poopy, CTaylor.meh. lots of questions. i think this class will beat 02 easy.04: Jackson, Kjones, Jones, Bell, Perry, Moore... and?great top of the class, but no depth.i still like this years the best.

 

[Crippler]

Awesome post Schnitze. Best one I have seen in a while and goes to prove what I said before that this RB class is all hype and Benson and Williams went back because instead of being late round 2, early 3rd, they now have chance to go in top 10 because this RB class is all smoke and mirrors.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Where were all you pimps last year at this time? This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft.

He wasn't talked about much because he didn't declare and people don't focus on prospects in January. But I do remember that most scouts said that both Brown & Carnell would have gone above KJ & SJ, and that was a year ago when they were juniors whereas KJ was a senior.

Rankings that include all of the juniors from 2004 draft are hard to find because most of them have been over-written etc. Another reason is that Brown frequently fails to make the list. But here are a few I found:http://www.nflfuture.com/osbornerankings.html

http://www.nflfuture.com/2004offense.html

http://www.draftshowcase.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.thehogs.net/Draft2004/top10/backs.php

http://nfldraft.ionichost.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.pfl-football.com/insidepfl/insidepflvol13.htm

http://saintsreport.com/newsdata/askmike/top68.htm

http://browns.scout.com/2/218803.html

http://draftnix.com/prospects/rb/rb.shtml

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/archiv...dex.php/t-23460

Brown is generally somewhere around 15th on these list (if he's on it at all). Williams is ranked much higher, but still more often than not below Steven Jackson. What we have going on here is called revisionist history.

Mea culpa. Looks like Carnell was rated above KJ about as often as below him, and Brown wasn't anywhere close. This definitely does not jibe with what I remember, but maybe I remember incorrectly.

 

[Bloom]

Where were all you pimps last year at this time?  This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft.

He wasn't talked about much because he didn't declare and people don't focus on prospects in January. But I do remember that most scouts said that both Brown & Carnell would have gone above KJ & SJ, and that was a year ago when they were juniors whereas KJ was a senior.

Rankings that include all of the juniors from 2004 draft are hard to find because most of them have been over-written etc. Another reason is that Brown frequently fails to make the list. But here are a few I found:http://www.nflfuture.com/osbornerankings.html

http://www.nflfuture.com/2004offense.html

http://www.draftshowcase.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.thehogs.net/Draft2004/top10/backs.php

http://nfldraft.ionichost.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.pfl-football.com/insidepfl/insidepflvol13.htm

http://saintsreport.com/newsdata/askmike/top68.htm

http://browns.scout.com/2/218803.html

http://draftnix.com/prospects/rb/rb.shtml

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/archiv...dex.php/t-23460

Brown is generally somewhere around 15th on these list (if he's on it at all). Williams is ranked much higher, but still more often than not below Steven Jackson. What we have going on here is called revisionist history.

Mea culpa. Looks like Carnell was rated above KJ about as often as below him, and Brown wasn't anywhere close. This definitely does not jibe with what I remember, but maybe I remember incorrectly.

this is not really that persuasive to me. brown, benson, and williams are a year farther along in their development now, which makes them worth more to an NFL team, and brown and williams's value has skyrocketed since last year. those ratings are based on what we knew about those guys last spring. they have given us another year of information to base their grade on, and all passed with flying colors this year.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Where were all you pimps last year at this time?  This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft.

He wasn't talked about much because he didn't declare and people don't focus on prospects in January. But I do remember that most scouts said that both Brown & Carnell would have gone above KJ & SJ, and that was a year ago when they were juniors whereas KJ was a senior.

Rankings that include all of the juniors from 2004 draft are hard to find because most of them have been over-written etc. Another reason is that Brown frequently fails to make the list. But here are a few I found:http://www.nflfuture.com/osbornerankings.html

http://www.nflfuture.com/2004offense.html

http://www.draftshowcase.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.thehogs.net/Draft2004/top10/backs.php

http://nfldraft.ionichost.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.pfl-football.com/insidepfl/insidepflvol13.htm

http://saintsreport.com/newsdata/askmike/top68.htm

http://browns.scout.com/2/218803.html

http://draftnix.com/prospects/rb/rb.shtml

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/archiv...dex.php/t-23460

Brown is generally somewhere around 15th on these list (if he's on it at all). Williams is ranked much higher, but still more often than not below Steven Jackson. What we have going on here is called revisionist history.

Mea culpa. Looks like Carnell was rated above KJ about as often as below him, and Brown wasn't anywhere close. This definitely does not jibe with what I remember, but maybe I remember incorrectly.

this is not really that persuasive to me. brown, benson, and williams are a year farther along in their development now, which makes them worth more to an NFL team, and brown and williams's value has skyrocketed since last year. those ratings are based on what we knew about those guys last spring. they have given us another year of information to base their grade on, and all passed with flying colors this year.

First, these links were provided as evidence against the statement "Brown and Williams were ranked higher than Jackson and Jones last year at this time" (paraphrased). As far as that goes, I don't know how these links would not be persuasive in that regard. Last year, Brown was ranked nowhere NEAR any of the top backs, and there's really no debate about that. Williams was typically (but not always - Kiper for example was/is very high on him) behind both Jackson (usually 1st) and Jones (usually 2nd, sometimes 1st). When ranked in the same list, Benson was typically behind them all (except Brown). Again, these comparisons were basically apples to apples - juniors against juniors for the most part, so the "further development" issue AT THE TIME, was entirely moot.Now the SECOND issue is whether Brown/Williams would be ranked higher than Jackson/Jones AT THIS POINT. There is PLENTY of debate on that.

Some who have memberships claim that Scouts Inc has the top three this year very high relative to past backs at the same point. However, the comparisons I have seen generally don't rank juniors, which eliminates a pretty big selection of guys (including the top players from last year). Jason Wood's tidbits thread

On the other hand, PFW's rankings seem to have the Jackson/Jones ranked very highly relative to other backs selected over the past several years and it would be extremely surprising to see any of the big three ranked significantly higher than either of them (don't subscribe, so I don't know for sure).

But back to the original point. Brown, while always considered an intriguing prospect, has only very recently been considered a "lock" to be end up a franchise-type back. The physical characteristics are undoubtedly there for Brown, but the fact remains that he has never been "the guy". There are a lot of big fast guys that aren't great running backs (or at least haven't proven to be yet).

A couple of examples:

Duckett: Bigger and faster than Brown (speed might be a wash). I'm a big fan of Duckett, but he hasn't really set the world on fire yet despite his measurables.

Greg Jones: Again, definitely bigger and maybe faster than Brown. Currently playing fullback. I have him on a dynasty roster and would love ot see him do well, but he's a great example of what a guy with great measurables but limited elusiveness can become.

Davenport is kind of in that same territory - big and fast, not real elusive.

Here's another I will get blasted for: Ron Dayne

Believe it or not, Dayne was known for both size and his SPEED at that size in college. In the pros, it seems he just doesn't have the explosiveness or acceleration necessary to be effective. I'm not saying Brown will bust like Dayne, but I am just listing big, (at one point) fast guys that just haven't cut it because of a lack of the other things necessary to be a great back in the NFL. Brown may well have some of things, and to be honest I'd love to have him on a dynasty roster because the potential is certainly there. BUT, I do not see him as the best back in this class for the reasons mentioned and feel he has a LOT more risk than people are ascribing to him at this point.

 

[beto]

99: edge, ricky, kevin faulk, zereoue, gary

comment: this is a horrible year for RB beyond edge and ricky

00: Lewis, TJones, Dayne, Alexander, Canidate, SMorris

comment: nice first round, but thats it

01: LT, Deuce, Atrain, jordan, henry, barlow, rudi, c-buck, MBennett

very good #1 and #2, this class probably wont match that, but 1-7, this class can definitely hang.

02: Portis, WGreen, Duckett, Foster, MMorris, Betts, Gordon, Westbrook, Wells, Poopy, CTaylor.

meh. lots of questions. i think this class will beat 02 easy.

04: Jackson, Kjones, Jones, Bell, Perry, Moore... and?

great top of the class, but no depth.

i still like this years the best.

added a couple you missedMy latest ranking:

1. Benson

2. Brown

3. Williams

4. Fason

5. Barber

6. Morency

7. Houston

8. Gore

9. Sproles

10. Mclendon

11. Harris

12. Moats

13. Arrington

14. Shelton

15. Clarett

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Mea culpa. Looks like Carnell was rated above KJ about as often as below him, and Brown wasn't anywhere close. This definitely does not jibe with what I remember, but maybe I remember incorrectly.

Actually, on the lists that ranked most of the 5 backs (+1 - we'll throw Greg Jones in there for fun) here's the average: (in cases where a guy doesn't make the "top x" list, [brown often in this category so his ranking is significantly elevated] I gave him an x-1 ranking - assuming he was the next best guy not on the list)Jackson 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2 - average: 1.6

Kevin Jones 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 5, 3, 1 - average 2.5

Williams 5, 3, 7, 2, 4, 1, 4, 3 - average 3.6

Benson 14, 5, 2, 6, 5, 4, 6, 6 - average 6

Greg Jones 10, 8, 11, 4, 3, 3, 7, 4 - average 6.3

Brown 18, 22, 4, 14, 11, 10, 8, 7 - average 11.8

 

[beef]

Great posts Holy Schneikes. Some very good reading and info.

 

[fatgirlsrock]

Good stuff.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Mea culpa. Looks like Carnell was rated above KJ about as often as below him, and Brown wasn't anywhere close. This definitely does not jibe with what I remember, but maybe I remember incorrectly.

Actually, on the lists that ranked most of the 5 backs (+1 - we'll throw Greg Jones in there for fun) here's the average: (in cases where a guy doesn't make the "top x" list, [brown often in this category so his ranking is significantly elevated] I gave him an x-1 ranking - assuming he was the next best guy not on the list)Jackson 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2 - average: 1.6

Kevin Jones 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 5, 3, 1 - average 2.5

Williams 5, 3, 7, 2, 4, 1, 4, 3 - average 3.6

Benson 14, 5, 2, 6, 5, 4, 6, 6 - average 6

Greg Jones 10, 8, 11, 4, 3, 3, 7, 4 - average 6.3

Brown 18, 22, 4, 14, 11, 10, 8, 7 - average 11.8

I didn't speak to the average, I said that Jones was > Williams about as often as vice versa. Ignoring redundant rankings, of the ones that had both, I see Carnell higher 3 times, and KJ higher 4 times.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Mea culpa.  Looks like Carnell was rated above KJ about as often as below him, and Brown wasn't anywhere close.  This definitely does not jibe with what I remember, but maybe I remember incorrectly.

Actually, on the lists that ranked most of the 5 backs (+1 - we'll throw Greg Jones in there for fun) here's the average: (in cases where a guy doesn't make the "top x" list, [brown often in this category so his ranking is significantly elevated] I gave him an x-1 ranking - assuming he was the next best guy not on the list)Jackson 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2 - average: 1.6

Kevin Jones 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 5, 3, 1 - average 2.5

Williams 5, 3, 7, 2, 4, 1, 4, 3 - average 3.6

Benson 14, 5, 2, 6, 5, 4, 6, 6 - average 6

Greg Jones 10, 8, 11, 4, 3, 3, 7, 4 - average 6.3

Brown 18, 22, 4, 14, 11, 10, 8, 7 - average 11.8

I didn't speak to the average, I said that Jones was > Williams about as often as vice versa. Ignoring redundant rankings, of the ones that had both, I see Carnell higher 3 times, and KJ higher 4 times.

The rankings are listed above (comma separated - sorry, not the eaiest to read). Williams was ranked higher than Jones twice. Jones ranked higher 6 times. None are redundant. Two are from the same site, but they are different sets of rankings (different orders). Assuming you eliminate one of them, it is still 5 to 2 in favor of Jones. When they are listed together, only once among the 8 lists does Williams rank 1st, compared to 4 times for Jackson and twice for Jones. Sadly, Clarrett is listed as the top back in one of these lists.All that said, I really like Williams and my personal rankings have Williams very close to Jones (and have him 1st overall this year).

Another note: I freely admit these particular rankings don't mean a lot. I have no idea of the credibility of the guys that put these lists together. They are all crap as far as I know. I only gathered them initially to indicate the prevailing thoughts at this time last year and they were all I could find (for free). I WILL say however, that they were NOT cherry-picked. If I found a list that had them all ranked, I included it (reference the one that had Williams 1st and the "odd" one that had Brown 4th).

The VAST difference between common perception about the PREVIOUS relative values of these guys and the reality is what I am trying to point out. I wish I had more "early" lists that included all of the juniors from 2004 and I wish a few of them were from "big name" guys, but like I said, they are hard to find. Lots of sites/publications don't list underclassmen at all until after the declaration period.

 

[Tenderknee]

1st round RBs2000 - Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, Shaun Alexander, Trung Canidate2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson, Deuce McAllister, Michael Bennett2002 - William Green, T.J. Duckett2003 - Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson2004 - Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Kevin JonesThose are 15 RBs in the 1st round in the past 5 drafts.I'd contend that only Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, and William Green might be worthy of calling them busts.So with 80% accuracy, you can pick a good RB just by picking the ones that get drafted in the 1st round.I'd take those odds.

 

[EBF]

1st round RBs

2000 - Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, Shaun Alexander, Trung Canidate

2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson, Deuce McAllister, Michael Bennett

2002 - William Green, T.J. Duckett

2003 - Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson

2004 - Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones

Those are 15 RBs in the 1st round in the past 5 drafts.

I'd contend that only Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, and William Green might be worthy of calling them busts.

So with 80% accuracy, you can pick a good RB just by picking the ones that get drafted in the 1st round.

I'd take those odds.

True, but up to this point TJ Duckett, Larry Johnson, and Michael Bennett have given fairly mediocre fantasy returns. Only about half of the guys you listed qualify as solid fantasy starters, although some of them simply haven't had a chance yet.

 

[placeholder10391]

First, these links were provided as evidence against the statement "Brown and Williams were ranked higher than Jackson and Jones last year at this time" (paraphrased). As far as that goes, I don't know how these links would not be persuasive in that regard. Last year, Brown was ranked nowhere NEAR any of the top backs, and there's really no debate about that. Williams was typically (but not always - Kiper for example was/is very high on him) behind both Jackson (usually 1st) and Jones (usually 2nd, sometimes 1st). When ranked in the same list, Benson was typically behind them all (except Brown). Again, these comparisons were basically apples to apples - juniors against juniors for the most part, so the "further development" issue AT THE TIME, was entirely moot.

Now the SECOND issue is whether Brown/Williams would be ranked higher than Jackson/Jones AT THIS POINT. There is PLENTY of debate on that.

Some who have memberships claim that Scouts Inc has the top three this year very high relative to past backs at the same point. However, the comparisons I have seen generally don't rank juniors, which eliminates a pretty big selection of guys (including the top players from last year). Jason Wood's tidbits thread

On the other hand, PFW's rankings seem to have the Jackson/Jones ranked very highly relative to other backs selected over the past several years and it would be extremely surprising to see any of the big three ranked significantly higher than either of them (don't subscribe, so I don't know for sure).

But back to the original point. Brown, while always considered an intriguing prospect, has only very recently been considered a "lock" to be end up a franchise-type back. The physical characteristics are undoubtedly there for Brown, but the fact remains that he has never been "the guy". There are a lot of big fast guys that aren't great running backs (or at least haven't proven to be yet).

A couple of examples:

Duckett: Bigger and faster than Brown (speed might be a wash). I'm a big fan of Duckett, but he hasn't really set the world on fire yet despite his measurables.

Greg Jones: Again, definitely bigger and maybe faster than Brown. Currently playing fullback. I have him on a dynasty roster and would love ot see him do well, but he's a great example of what a guy with great measurables but limited elusiveness can become.

Davenport is kind of in that same territory - big and fast, not real elusive.

Here's another I will get blasted for: Ron Dayne

Believe it or not, Dayne was known for both size and his SPEED at that size in college. In the pros, it seems he just doesn't have the explosiveness or acceleration necessary to be effective. I'm not saying Brown will bust like Dayne, but I am just listing big, (at one point) fast guys that just haven't cut it because of a lack of the other things necessary to be a great back in the NFL. Brown may well have some of things, and to be honest I'd love to have him on a dynasty roster because the potential is certainly there. BUT, I do not see him as the best back in this class for the reasons mentioned and feel he has a LOT more risk than people are ascribing to him at this point.

These are some interesting points regarding backs of Brown's size, and has me considering that maybe Brown is NOT the guy I should be taking with 1.1 in my rookie draft, but rather Caddy or Benson...

 

[Bloom]

1st round RBs

2000 - Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, Shaun Alexander, Trung Canidate

2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson, Deuce McAllister, Michael Bennett

2002 - William Green, T.J. Duckett

2003 - Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson

2004 - Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones

Those are 15 RBs in the 1st round in the past 5 drafts.

I'd contend that only Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, and William Green might be worthy of calling them busts.

So with 80% accuracy, you can pick a good RB just by picking the ones that get drafted in the 1st round.

I'd take those odds.

True, but up to this point TJ Duckett, Larry Johnson, and Michael Bennett have given fairly mediocre fantasy returns. Only about half of the guys you listed qualify as solid fantasy starters, although some of them simply haven't had a chance yet.

compare that to WR:2000: warrick, plax, ttaylor,s. morris, RJ Soward

2001: terrell, K-rob,gardner,Smoss,mitchell, wayne

2002: stallworth, lelie, walker

2003: rogers, andre,bjohnson

2004: fitz, roy, reggie, evans, clayton, jenkins, woods

QB

2000: pennington

2001: vick

2002: carr, harrington, ramsey

2003: palmer, leftwich, boller, grossman

2004: manning, rivers, ben, losman

seems like first round WR is a real crapshoot, first round QB gives you a solid QB, but not necessarily a stud. first round RBs seem like the best investment...

 

[Bloom]

Where were all you pimps last year at this time?  This is the SAME Ronnie Brown that was just an "interesting prospect" coming into last year's draft.

He wasn't talked about much because he didn't declare and people don't focus on prospects in January. But I do remember that most scouts said that both Brown & Carnell would have gone above KJ & SJ, and that was a year ago when they were juniors whereas KJ was a senior.

Rankings that include all of the juniors from 2004 draft are hard to find because most of them have been over-written etc. Another reason is that Brown frequently fails to make the list. But here are a few I found:http://www.nflfuture.com/osbornerankings.html

http://www.nflfuture.com/2004offense.html

http://www.draftshowcase.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.thehogs.net/Draft2004/top10/backs.php

http://nfldraft.ionichost.com/04RunningBacks.htm

http://www.pfl-football.com/insidepfl/insidepflvol13.htm

http://saintsreport.com/newsdata/askmike/top68.htm

http://browns.scout.com/2/218803.html

http://draftnix.com/prospects/rb/rb.shtml

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/archiv...dex.php/t-23460

Brown is generally somewhere around 15th on these list (if he's on it at all). Williams is ranked much higher, but still more often than not below Steven Jackson. What we have going on here is called revisionist history.

Mea culpa. Looks like Carnell was rated above KJ about as often as below him, and Brown wasn't anywhere close. This definitely does not jibe with what I remember, but maybe I remember incorrectly.

this is not really that persuasive to me. brown, benson, and williams are a year farther along in their development now, which makes them worth more to an NFL team, and brown and williams's value has skyrocketed since last year. those ratings are based on what we knew about those guys last spring. they have given us another year of information to base their grade on, and all passed with flying colors this year.

First, these links were provided as evidence against the statement "Brown and Williams were ranked higher than Jackson and Jones last year at this time" (paraphrased). As far as that goes, I don't know how these links would not be persuasive in that regard. Last year, Brown was ranked nowhere NEAR any of the top backs, and there's really no debate about that. Williams was typically (but not always - Kiper for example was/is very high on him) behind both Jackson (usually 1st) and Jones (usually 2nd, sometimes 1st). When ranked in the same list, Benson was typically behind them all (except Brown). Again, these comparisons were basically apples to apples - juniors against juniors for the most part, so the "further development" issue AT THE TIME, was entirely moot.Now the SECOND issue is whether Brown/Williams would be ranked higher than Jackson/Jones AT THIS POINT. There is PLENTY of debate on that.

Some who have memberships claim that Scouts Inc has the top three this year very high relative to past backs at the same point. However, the comparisons I have seen generally don't rank juniors, which eliminates a pretty big selection of guys (including the top players from last year). Jason Wood's tidbits thread

On the other hand, PFW's rankings seem to have the Jackson/Jones ranked very highly relative to other backs selected over the past several years and it would be extremely surprising to see any of the big three ranked significantly higher than either of them (don't subscribe, so I don't know for sure).

But back to the original point. Brown, while always considered an intriguing prospect, has only very recently been considered a "lock" to be end up a franchise-type back. The physical characteristics are undoubtedly there for Brown, but the fact remains that he has never been "the guy". There are a lot of big fast guys that aren't great running backs (or at least haven't proven to be yet).

A couple of examples:

Duckett: Bigger and faster than Brown (speed might be a wash). I'm a big fan of Duckett, but he hasn't really set the world on fire yet despite his measurables.

Greg Jones: Again, definitely bigger and maybe faster than Brown. Currently playing fullback. I have him on a dynasty roster and would love ot see him do well, but he's a great example of what a guy with great measurables but limited elusiveness can become.

Davenport is kind of in that same territory - big and fast, not real elusive.

Here's another I will get blasted for: Ron Dayne

Believe it or not, Dayne was known for both size and his SPEED at that size in college. In the pros, it seems he just doesn't have the explosiveness or acceleration necessary to be effective. I'm not saying Brown will bust like Dayne, but I am just listing big, (at one point) fast guys that just haven't cut it because of a lack of the other things necessary to be a great back in the NFL. Brown may well have some of things, and to be honest I'd love to have him on a dynasty roster because the potential is certainly there. BUT, I do not see him as the best back in this class for the reasons mentioned and feel he has a LOT more risk than people are ascribing to him at this point.

except you left out that brown is probably one of the best pass-catching RBs we've seen since faulk. brown is no danger of being relegated to FB/power back duty.

 

[Monty Burns]

I believe the rookie RB hype is at an all time high because the Dynasty format of FF is peaking right now.5 years ago you barely heard of anyone being in a keeper league let alone a Dynasty league.Now almost everyone is in at least one(I'm in 4 myself).This has added fuel to the rookie hype like we have never seen before.....

While I disagree that the Dynasty format has peaked, I agree that its dramatic increase has fueled the rookie RB hype. A good thought IMHO, as I had not considered this impact on rookie RB's before. Are we (FF dynasty leaguers)overhyping these guys more so than in the past?

 

[Bloom]

I believe the rookie RB hype is at an all time high because the Dynasty format of FF is peaking right now.5 years ago you barely heard of anyone being in a keeper league let alone a Dynasty league.Now almost everyone is in at least one(I'm in 4 myself).This has added fuel to the rookie hype like we have never seen before.....

While I disagree that the Dynasty format has peaked, I agree that its dramatic increase has fueled the rookie RB hype. A good thought IMHO, as I had not considered this impact on rookie RB's before. Are we (FF dynasty leaguers)overhyping these guys more so than in the past?

honestly the hype with this class is that some very nice junior RBs came out. without them, or with 1 or 2 of them, this is an above average class because of the big 3, but nothing to go crazy over. with all 5 excellent juniors (fason, barber, morency, shelton, moats) you have the best 2nd tier of RBs you could imagine, and you have guys that very well could have been 1st tier if they had stayed in school one more year.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

First, these links were provided as evidence against the statement "Brown and Williams were ranked higher than Jackson and Jones last year at this time" (paraphrased). As far as that goes, I don't know how these links would not be persuasive in that regard. Last year, Brown was ranked nowhere NEAR any of the top backs, and there's really no debate about that. Williams was typically (but not always - Kiper for example was/is very high on him) behind both Jackson (usually 1st) and Jones (usually 2nd, sometimes 1st). When ranked in the same list, Benson was typically behind them all (except Brown). Again, these comparisons were basically apples to apples - juniors against juniors for the most part, so the "further development" issue AT THE TIME, was entirely moot.

Now the SECOND issue is whether Brown/Williams would be ranked higher than Jackson/Jones AT THIS POINT. There is PLENTY of debate on that.

Some who have memberships claim that Scouts Inc has the top three this year very high relative to past backs at the same point. However, the comparisons I have seen generally don't rank juniors, which eliminates a pretty big selection of guys (including the top players from last year). Jason Wood's tidbits thread

On the other hand, PFW's rankings seem to have the Jackson/Jones ranked very highly relative to other backs selected over the past several years and it would be extremely surprising to see any of the big three ranked significantly higher than either of them (don't subscribe, so I don't know for sure).

But back to the original point. Brown, while always considered an intriguing prospect, has only very recently been considered a "lock" to be end up a franchise-type back. The physical characteristics are undoubtedly there for Brown, but the fact remains that he has never been "the guy". There are a lot of big fast guys that aren't great running backs (or at least haven't proven to be yet).

A couple of examples:

Duckett: Bigger and faster than Brown (speed might be a wash). I'm a big fan of Duckett, but he hasn't really set the world on fire yet despite his measurables.

Greg Jones: Again, definitely bigger and maybe faster than Brown. Currently playing fullback. I have him on a dynasty roster and would love ot see him do well, but he's a great example of what a guy with great measurables but limited elusiveness can become.

Davenport is kind of in that same territory - big and fast, not real elusive.

Here's another I will get blasted for: Ron Dayne

Believe it or not, Dayne was known for both size and his SPEED at that size in college. In the pros, it seems he just doesn't have the explosiveness or acceleration necessary to be effective. I'm not saying Brown will bust like Dayne, but I am just listing big, (at one point) fast guys that just haven't cut it because of a lack of the other things necessary to be a great back in the NFL. Brown may well have some of things, and to be honest I'd love to have him on a dynasty roster because the potential is certainly there. BUT, I do not see him as the best back in this class for the reasons mentioned and feel he has a LOT more risk than people are ascribing to him at this point.

except you left out that brown is probably one of the best pass-catching RBs we've seen since faulk. brown is no danger of being relegated to FB/power back duty.

Ahhhh, another fabulous misconception. Ronnie Brown has 58 CAREER receptions (yeah, 58). Funny you should mention fullback, because he got quite a few of those receptions while playing fullback (where you need to be able to catch the ball). Can he catch the ball? Sure he can, and so can a lot of other guys. In drills etc, Brown has by all ccounts looked good catching the ball. So has Williams, so has Benson and so did most of the RBs in most draft classes (poor Greg Jones excepted). So makes Ronnie Brown stand out in the receiving area? Nothing. Calling him the next Faulk catching the ball is a just a TAD premature. BTW, you know what one of the knocks on LT was coming out of school? He didn't catch the ball enough. Damn near meaningless unless a guy has really displayed a complete lack of natural ability in the area. More often than not, college RB receptions are far more a product of the system than they are a backs "receiving skills" (same in the NFL, but to a lesser degree).

 

[Bloom]

First, these links were provided as evidence against the statement "Brown and Williams were ranked higher than Jackson and Jones last year at this time" (paraphrased).  As far as that goes, I don't know how these links would not be persuasive in that regard.  Last year, Brown was ranked nowhere NEAR any of the top backs, and there's really no debate about that.  Williams was typically (but not always - Kiper for example was/is very high on him) behind both Jackson (usually 1st) and Jones (usually 2nd, sometimes 1st).  When ranked in the same list, Benson was typically behind them all (except Brown).  Again, these comparisons were basically apples to apples - juniors against juniors for the most part, so the "further development" issue AT THE TIME, was entirely moot.

Now the SECOND issue is whether Brown/Williams would be ranked higher than Jackson/Jones AT THIS POINT.  There is PLENTY of debate on that.

Some who have memberships claim that Scouts Inc has the top three this year very high relative to past backs at the same point.  However, the comparisons I have seen generally don't rank juniors, which eliminates a pretty big selection of guys (including the top players from last year). Jason Wood's tidbits thread

On the other hand, PFW's rankings seem to have the Jackson/Jones ranked very highly relative to other backs selected over the past several years and it would be extremely surprising to see any of the big three ranked significantly higher than either of them (don't subscribe, so I don't know for sure).

But back to the original point.  Brown, while always considered an intriguing prospect, has only very recently been considered a "lock" to be end up a franchise-type back.  The physical characteristics are undoubtedly there for Brown, but the fact remains that he has never been "the guy".  There are a lot of big fast guys that aren't great running backs (or at least haven't proven to be yet).

A couple of examples:

Duckett:  Bigger and faster than Brown (speed might be a wash).  I'm a big fan of Duckett, but he hasn't really set the world on fire yet despite his measurables.

Greg Jones:  Again, definitely bigger and maybe faster than Brown.  Currently playing fullback.  I have him on a dynasty roster and would love ot see him do well, but he's a great example of what a guy with great measurables but limited elusiveness can become.

Davenport is kind of in that same territory - big and fast, not real elusive.

Here's another I will get blasted for:  Ron Dayne

Believe it or not, Dayne was known for both size and his SPEED at that size in college.  In the pros, it seems he just doesn't have the explosiveness or acceleration necessary to be effective.  I'm not saying Brown will bust like Dayne, but I am just listing big, (at one point) fast guys that just haven't cut it because of a lack of the other things necessary to be a great back in the NFL.  Brown may well have some of things, and to be honest I'd love to have him on a dynasty roster because the potential is certainly there.  BUT, I do not see him as the best back in this class for the reasons mentioned and feel he has a LOT more risk than people are ascribing to him at this point.

except you left out that brown is probably one of the best pass-catching RBs we've seen since faulk. brown is no danger of being relegated to FB/power back duty.

Ahhhh, another fabulous misconception. Ronnie Brown has 58 CAREER receptions (yeah, 58). Funny you should mention fullback, because he got quite a few of those receptions while playing fullback (where you need to be able to catch the ball). Can he catch the ball? Sure he can, and so can a lot of other guys. In drills etc, Brown has by all ccounts looked good catching the ball. So has Williams, so has Benson and so did most of the RBs in most draft classes (poor Greg Jones excepted). So makes Ronnie Brown stand out in the receiving area? Nothing. Calling him the next Faulk catching the ball is a just a TAD premature. BTW, you know what one of the knocks on LT was coming out of school? He didn't catch the ball enough. Damn near meaningless unless a guy has really displayed a complete lack of natural ability in the area. More often than not, college RB receptions are far more a product of the system than they are a backs "receiving skills" (same in the NFL, but to a lesser degree).

you cant just look at the number of receptions, you have to look at the game play.brown literally lined up and produced at almost every receiving position in the auburn offense, slot, wide, h-back, FB, single back, split back. that skill is going to translate to the NFL nicely, and im sure this will not be lost on the OC of his new team. his blocking ability also ensures that he wont be lifted on 3rd down.

i did not say he was the next faulk. i said he has receiving skills comparable to faulks. who was the last RB that you could legitimately line up anywhere in your offensive set? faulk was the first one that came to mind... maybe dunn?

 

[Kit Fisto]

1st round RBs

2000 - Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, Shaun Alexander, Trung Canidate

2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson, Deuce McAllister, Michael Bennett

2002 - William Green, T.J. Duckett

2003 - Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson

2004 - Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones

Those are 15 RBs in the 1st round in the past 5 drafts.

I'd contend that only Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, and William Green might be worthy of calling them busts.

So with 80% accuracy, you can pick a good RB just by picking the ones that get drafted in the 1st round.

I'd take those odds.

True, but up to this point TJ Duckett, Larry Johnson, and Michael Bennett have given fairly mediocre fantasy returns. Only about half of the guys you listed qualify as solid fantasy starters, although some of them simply haven't had a chance yet.

I would contend that Tom Jones has been a disappointment (I know Burning will disagree ), Dayne's a flop, Canidate too, Bennett can't stay healthy, Green's a flop, Duckett shares time, LJ's still on the bench (for now), and Chris Perry eats my nut. That makes 7 out of 15 as real fantasy players. Less than 50%. You can keep guys like Green and Perry and keep on wishin' and hopin' and prayin'... I'll go after the Tomlinson's and McGahee's of the world.

That's not to discount the post earlier... it's a fact that the best rate for hitting on fantasy prospects is with first-round RB's. A couple of years ago, I was really bored at work, so I did a little study. Yes, it's true, take this to the bank... First-round RBs have a greater "hit" ratio than QBs or WRs. First-round QBs have the worst.

So my draft philosophy is as such... In the first round of a dynasty draft, if you can't choose between an RB/QB/WR, take the RB, even if you don't need one. Trade your strengths later for what you need.

 

[-OZ-]

First, these links were provided as evidence against the statement "Brown and Williams were ranked higher than Jackson and Jones last year at this time" (paraphrased).  As far as that goes, I don't know how these links would not be persuasive in that regard.  Last year, Brown was ranked nowhere NEAR any of the top backs, and there's really no debate about that.  Williams was typically (but not always - Kiper for example was/is very high on him) behind both Jackson (usually 1st) and Jones (usually 2nd, sometimes 1st).  When ranked in the same list, Benson was typically behind them all (except Brown).  Again, these comparisons were basically apples to apples - juniors against juniors for the most part, so the "further development" issue AT THE TIME, was entirely moot.

Now the SECOND issue is whether Brown/Williams would be ranked higher than Jackson/Jones AT THIS POINT.  There is PLENTY of debate on that.

Some who have memberships claim that Scouts Inc has the top three this year very high relative to past backs at the same point.  However, the comparisons I have seen generally don't rank juniors, which eliminates a pretty big selection of guys (including the top players from last year). Jason Wood's tidbits thread

On the other hand, PFW's rankings seem to have the Jackson/Jones ranked very highly relative to other backs selected over the past several years and it would be extremely surprising to see any of the big three ranked significantly higher than either of them (don't subscribe, so I don't know for sure).

But back to the original point.  Brown, while always considered an intriguing prospect, has only very recently been considered a "lock" to be end up a franchise-type back.  The physical characteristics are undoubtedly there for Brown, but the fact remains that he has never been "the guy".  There are a lot of big fast guys that aren't great running backs (or at least haven't proven to be yet).

A couple of examples:

Duckett:  Bigger and faster than Brown (speed might be a wash).  I'm a big fan of Duckett, but he hasn't really set the world on fire yet despite his measurables.

Greg Jones:  Again, definitely bigger and maybe faster than Brown.  Currently playing fullback.  I have him on a dynasty roster and would love ot see him do well, but he's a great example of what a guy with great measurables but limited elusiveness can become.

Davenport is kind of in that same territory - big and fast, not real elusive.

Here's another I will get blasted for:  Ron Dayne

Believe it or not, Dayne was known for both size and his SPEED at that size in college.  In the pros, it seems he just doesn't have the explosiveness or acceleration necessary to be effective.  I'm not saying Brown will bust like Dayne, but I am just listing big, (at one point) fast guys that just haven't cut it because of a lack of the other things necessary to be a great back in the NFL.  Brown may well have some of things, and to be honest I'd love to have him on a dynasty roster because the potential is certainly there.  BUT, I do not see him as the best back in this class for the reasons mentioned and feel he has a LOT more risk than people are ascribing to him at this point.

except you left out that brown is probably one of the best pass-catching RBs we've seen since faulk. brown is no danger of being relegated to FB/power back duty.

Ahhhh, another fabulous misconception. Ronnie Brown has 58 CAREER receptions (yeah, 58). Funny you should mention fullback, because he got quite a few of those receptions while playing fullback (where you need to be able to catch the ball). Can he catch the ball? Sure he can, and so can a lot of other guys. In drills etc, Brown has by all ccounts looked good catching the ball. So has Williams, so has Benson and so did most of the RBs in most draft classes (poor Greg Jones excepted). So makes Ronnie Brown stand out in the receiving area? Nothing. Calling him the next Faulk catching the ball is a just a TAD premature. BTW, you know what one of the knocks on LT was coming out of school? He didn't catch the ball enough. Damn near meaningless unless a guy has really displayed a complete lack of natural ability in the area. More often than not, college RB receptions are far more a product of the system than they are a backs "receiving skills" (same in the NFL, but to a lesser degree).

you cant just look at the number of receptions, you have to look at the game play.brown literally lined up and produced at almost every receiving position in the auburn offense, slot, wide, h-back, FB, single back, split back. that skill is going to translate to the NFL nicely, and im sure this will not be lost on the OC of his new team. his blocking ability also ensures that he wont be lifted on 3rd down.

i did not say he was the next faulk. i said he has receiving skills comparable to faulks. who was the last RB that you could legitimately line up anywhere in your offensive set? faulk was the first one that came to mind... maybe dunn?

Dunn, Faulk, K Faulk, Pittman, Garner, Westbrook, LT... pick one.

 

[Bloom]

First, these links were provided as evidence against the statement "Brown and Williams were ranked higher than Jackson and Jones last year at this time" (paraphrased).  As far as that goes, I don't know how these links would not be persuasive in that regard.  Last year, Brown was ranked nowhere NEAR any of the top backs, and there's really no debate about that.  Williams was typically (but not always - Kiper for example was/is very high on him) behind both Jackson (usually 1st) and Jones (usually 2nd, sometimes 1st).  When ranked in the same list, Benson was typically behind them all (except Brown).  Again, these comparisons were basically apples to apples - juniors against juniors for the most part, so the "further development" issue AT THE TIME, was entirely moot.

Now the SECOND issue is whether Brown/Williams would be ranked higher than Jackson/Jones AT THIS POINT.  There is PLENTY of debate on that.

Some who have memberships claim that Scouts Inc has the top three this year very high relative to past backs at the same point.  However, the comparisons I have seen generally don't rank juniors, which eliminates a pretty big selection of guys (including the top players from last year). Jason Wood's tidbits thread

On the other hand, PFW's rankings seem to have the Jackson/Jones ranked very highly relative to other backs selected over the past several years and it would be extremely surprising to see any of the big three ranked significantly higher than either of them (don't subscribe, so I don't know for sure).

But back to the original point.  Brown, while always considered an intriguing prospect, has only very recently been considered a "lock" to be end up a franchise-type back.  The physical characteristics are undoubtedly there for Brown, but the fact remains that he has never been "the guy".  There are a lot of big fast guys that aren't great running backs (or at least haven't proven to be yet).

A couple of examples:

Duckett:  Bigger and faster than Brown (speed might be a wash).  I'm a big fan of Duckett, but he hasn't really set the world on fire yet despite his measurables.

Greg Jones:  Again, definitely bigger and maybe faster than Brown.  Currently playing fullback.  I have him on a dynasty roster and would love ot see him do well, but he's a great example of what a guy with great measurables but limited elusiveness can become.

Davenport is kind of in that same territory - big and fast, not real elusive.

Here's another I will get blasted for:  Ron Dayne

Believe it or not, Dayne was known for both size and his SPEED at that size in college.  In the pros, it seems he just doesn't have the explosiveness or acceleration necessary to be effective.  I'm not saying Brown will bust like Dayne, but I am just listing big, (at one point) fast guys that just haven't cut it because of a lack of the other things necessary to be a great back in the NFL.  Brown may well have some of things, and to be honest I'd love to have him on a dynasty roster because the potential is certainly there.  BUT, I do not see him as the best back in this class for the reasons mentioned and feel he has a LOT more risk than people are ascribing to him at this point.

except you left out that brown is probably one of the best pass-catching RBs we've seen since faulk. brown is no danger of being relegated to FB/power back duty.

Ahhhh, another fabulous misconception. Ronnie Brown has 58 CAREER receptions (yeah, 58). Funny you should mention fullback, because he got quite a few of those receptions while playing fullback (where you need to be able to catch the ball). Can he catch the ball? Sure he can, and so can a lot of other guys. In drills etc, Brown has by all ccounts looked good catching the ball. So has Williams, so has Benson and so did most of the RBs in most draft classes (poor Greg Jones excepted). So makes Ronnie Brown stand out in the receiving area? Nothing. Calling him the next Faulk catching the ball is a just a TAD premature. BTW, you know what one of the knocks on LT was coming out of school? He didn't catch the ball enough. Damn near meaningless unless a guy has really displayed a complete lack of natural ability in the area. More often than not, college RB receptions are far more a product of the system than they are a backs "receiving skills" (same in the NFL, but to a lesser degree).

you cant just look at the number of receptions, you have to look at the game play.brown literally lined up and produced at almost every receiving position in the auburn offense, slot, wide, h-back, FB, single back, split back. that skill is going to translate to the NFL nicely, and im sure this will not be lost on the OC of his new team. his blocking ability also ensures that he wont be lifted on 3rd down.

i did not say he was the next faulk. i said he has receiving skills comparable to faulks. who was the last RB that you could legitimately line up anywhere in your offensive set? faulk was the first one that came to mind... maybe dunn?

Dunn, Faulk, K Faulk, Pittman, Garner, Westbrook, LT... pick one.

i think all of those are fair. however, only LT and faulk could be true feature backs out of that group. i think that should just underscore the reason so many are high on brown.

 

[Chris Smith]

CNN/SI 2003

SI

For the most part, you will always get a strong showing by seniors in collegiate rankings (#1 - guaranteed to come out and # 2 have been watched one year longer)

Here are the RB rankings from CNN/SI in 2003.

1 Maurice Clarett Ohio State So.

When healthy, proved nearly unstoppable right from his first college game.

2 Steven Jackson Oregon State Jr.

Both fast and powerful, he broke the school season record with 1,690 yards.

3 Frank Gore Miami So.

Had beat out Heisman finalist Willis McGahee last spring prior to ACL tear.

4 Anthony Davis Wisconsin Sr.

Workhorse averaged 25 carries and 126 yards per game his first two years.

5 Darren Sproles Kansas State Jr.

His 5-7, 170-pound frame didn't keep him from averaging 6.2 yards per carry.

6 Kevin Jones Virginia Tech Jr.

Former No. 1 recruit in the country finally gets the ball to himself this fall.

7 Michael Turner Northern Illinois Sr.

Nation's leading returning rusher sprang for 1,915 yards, 19 touchdowns.

8 Mewelde Moore Tualne Sr.

Compiled a combined 3,942 rushing/receiving yards the past two years.

9 Carnell Williams Auburn Jr.

"Cadillac" possesses Porsche-quality acceleration, though injury-prone.

10 Cedric Benson Texas Jr.

Quietly posted 1,293 yards in 2002 to follow up his 1,053 as a freshman.

11 Greg Jones Florida State Sr.

6-1, 255-pound battering ram not yet back at full speed from knee surgery.

12 T.A. McLendon N.C. State So.

"Touchdown Anytime" reached the end zone 18 times as a true freshman.

13 Derrick Knight Boston College Sr.

Latest in line of great B.C. tailbacks ran for 1,432 yards and 12 touchdowns.

14 Fred Russell Iowa Sr.

Not an every-down back last year, yet managed to gain 1,264 yards.

15 Ronnie Brown Auburn Jr.

Averaged 138.5 yards in six games last year after Williams went down.

Every season, players as they age are likely to gain more hype/noteriety amongst the pro scounts. However at the start of the 2003 season, 8 of the top 15 backs are coming out in this draft and that was two years ago...

Compare this to QB, WR and CB rankings (to name a few)

1 Philip Rivers N.C. State Sr.

Enters his fourth year as starter with 8,993 yards, 75 TDs and 26-12 record.

2 Cody Pickett Washington Sr.

Coming off the best passing season in Pac-10 history: 4,458 yards, 28 TDs.

3 David Greene Georgia Jr.

21-5 record in his two years as a starter, including 8-0 in opposing stadiums.

4 Andrew Walter Arizona State Jr.

Exploded onto the scene with four 400-yard passing games last season.

5 Matt Schaub Virginia Sr.

Highly efficient short-yardage passer compiled 68.9 completion percentage.

6 Brad Smith Missouri So.

Became just the second I-A player ever to throw for 2,000 yards, run for 1,000.

7 Ben Roethlisberger Miami of Ohio Jr.

Coveted by the NFL, passing for over 3,000 yards each of his first two seasons.

8 Ell Roberson Kansas State Sr.

Ever-improving passer is a dangerous runner, gaining 1,032 yards and 16 TDs.

9 Eli Manning Ole Miss Sr.

Looking to recover from uncharacteristic 21-touchdown, 15-interception season

10 Josh Fields Oklahoma State So.

Coming off breakout season: 3,145 yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions.

11 Bradlee Van Pelt Colorado State Sr.

Dual threat accounted for 2,982 yards last year, 819 of them with his feet.

12 Casey Clausen Tennessee So.

Four-year starter looks to rediscover his 2001 form after injury-plagued junior year.

13 John Navarre Michigan Sr.

Largely unappreciated four-year guy threw 21 TDs, just seven picks as a junior.

14 Ryan Schneider UCF Sr.

Threw for 345 yards on Penn State, 440 against Syracuse en route to 3,770.

15 Craig Krenzel Ohio State Sr.

Brains of the Buckeyes offense made big plays, few mistakes during title run.

1 Reggie Williams Washington Jr.

Already holds the two-year Pac-10 record with 149 catches for 2,427 yards.

2 Rashaun Woods Oklahoma St. Sr.

Nation's leading returning receiver had 107 catches, 1,695 yards and 17 TDs.

3 Roy Williams Texas Sr.

Amazing last five games of 2002: 39 catches, 741 yards and nine touchdowns.

4 Mike Williams USC So.

Carson Palmer's top receiver as a freshman with 81 catches, 1,265 yards.

5 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh So.

Leaping touchdown in the Insight Bowl was one of the best catches of the year.

6 Michael Jenkins Ohio State Sr.

Big-play receiver made game-saving 4th down catches against Purdue, Miami.

7 Jerricho Cotchery N.C. State Sr.

Philip Rivers' top target burned Notre Dame for 10 catches, 127 yards in bowl.

8 John Standeford Purdue Sr.

Broke through as a junior with seven 100-yard games, 1,307 on the season.

9 Braylon Edwards Michigan Jr.

Will don the famed No. 1 jersey of Anthony Carter, David Terrell this fall.

10 Darius Watts Marshall Jr.

Staggering past two seasons: 162 catches, 2,447 yards and 30 touchdowns.

11 Lee Evans Wisconsin Sr.

Missed last season with ACL injury following 1,545-yard season in 2001.

12 Fred Gibson Georgia Jr.

Inconsistent but extremely talented, will finally be Dogs' No. 1 guy this fall.

13 Bernard Berrian Fresno State Sr.

Another guy who missed last season but shined the year before (1,545 yards).

14 Roscoe Parrish Miami So.

Small (5-9, 157) but elusive playmaker should take on a much bigger role.

15 Lane Danielsen Iowa State Sr.

Unimposing but gutsy player torched foes for 63 catches, 1,073 yards.

1 Chris Gamble Ohio State Jr.

Not bad for a guy who started playing defense eight games into last year.

2 Sean Taylor Miami Jr.

At 6-3, 225, he's establishing a new, "big" prototype for free safeties.

3 Brandon Everage Oklahoma Sr.

Covers seemingly the entire field, notching 94 tackles and six picks in '02.

4 Nathan Vasher Texas Sr.

Has intercepted 11 passes and broken up 38 his first three seasons.

5 Marlin Jackson Michigan Jr.

Lock-down cover corner has gotten the better of several elite receivers.

6 Stuart Schweigert Purdue Sr.

Impact player since his freshman year, with 272 tackles and 13 picks.

7 Justin Miller Clemson So.

Burst onto the scene with eight interceptions as a true freshman.

8 Derrick Strait Oklahoma Sr.

One of the last holdovers from OU's 2000 national title team.

9 Jim Leonhard Wisconsin Jr.

5-8 former walk-on led the country last year with 11 interceptions.

10 Domonique Foxworth Maryland Jr.

Led the ACC last year with 17 pass break-ups to go with five picks.

And the ratio of RB's coming out this season is very high

and from another site...

College Football Preview

1. Maurice Clarett, Ohio State Soph.

If Clarett can somehow stay healthy, he'll be in the hunt for the Heisman all season long. One of the best goal line runners in the country, Clarett is deadly inside the ten-yard line. The team isn't afraid to make him a workhorse continuously feeding him the ball against Washington State. As banged up as he was last season, he still rushed for 1,237 yards and 16 scores. He's a decent, but not outstanding, receiver out of the backfield.

2. Steven Jackson, Oregon State Jr.

Jackson broke the school record for rushing with 1,690 yards last year, but he's not just a rusher catching 17 passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns. A big back with outstanding speed, Jackson averaged 5.3 yards per carry and ran for 15 touchdowns.

3. Anthony Davis, Wisconsin Jr.

Davis hasn't received the acclaim that he deserves. All he's done is lead the nation in total rushing yards (3,021) over the last two seasons coming off another tremendous year. He's only 5-8 and 194 pounds, but he's able to withstand a pounding. It's asking a lot for him to carry the ball 300 times again, so he'll need help.

4. Michael Turner, Northern Illinois Sr.

Turner was supposed to be the two in the 1-2 rushing punch joining Thomas Hammock. All Turner did was tear off 1,915 yards and 19 touchdowns averaging 5.7 yards per carry showing a great combination of speed and power. Talk about your workhorses, Turner had 29 or more carries eight times and ran for 200 of more yards five times. He tore through Miami and Eastern Michigan for five touchdowns against each.

5. Kevin Jones, Virginia Tech Jr.

As good as Lee Suggs played and as amazing as he was at getting into the end zone, he might not have been as talented as Jones is. The 212-pound junior is as flamboyant as Suggs was understated. After waiting for his turn to be the main man, look for Jones to have a breakout season and possibly even garner some Heisman consideration if he can get over his fumbling problem. In a backup role, he ran for 871 yards and nine touchdowns averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

6. Carnell Williams, Auburn Jr.

7. Frank Gore, Miami Soph.

8. Darren Sproles, Kansas State Jr.

9. T.A. McLendon, North Carolina State Soph.

10. Mewelde Moore, Tulane Sr.

11. Cedric Benson, Texas Jr.

12. Derrick Knight, Boston College Sr.

14. Ronnie Brown, Auburn Jr.

15. Chris Perry, Michigan Sr.

16. Marion Barber III, Minnesota, Soph.

17. DonTrell Moore, New Mexico Soph.

18. Fred Russell, Iowa Sr.

19. Bruce Perry, Maryland Sr.

20. Terry Caulley, Connecticut Soph.

21. Tyler Ebell, UCLA Soph.

22. Lonta Hobbs, TCU Soph.

23. Greg Jones, Florida State Jr.

24. Eric Shelton, Louisville Soph.

25. Walter Reyes, Syracuse Jr.

That is a nice ratio of players in this draft, ranked two years ago. Ronnie Brown has climbed up significantly but it was a three-headed monster in Auburn and he wasn't a full time back like many of the others on this list. However, just because a guy doesn't get all the work in college, doesn't mean he isn't destined for stardom (see Priest Holmes)

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I don't think you can look at Draft Lists from last year to determine players worth this year without more info. Perhaps players were devalued in the lists unless it was certain they were coming out in the draft. Looking at rankings from the START of the 2003 season, I think it is clear that these players were indeed highly thought of.

 

[EBF]

I think it's a flawed analysis. Those rankings are for college players. As far as I can tell they don't necessarily have anything to do with pro potential.It reminds me of video games. I remember back when I used to play games that Woodrow Dantzler and Eric Crouch were two of the most highly-rated players in NCAA Football 2002. When I imported the draft class into Madden 2002, both guys were selected by the computer in the first round. I found it funny at the time because those guys were great college players, but very marginal pro prospects. The game didn't take that into account.Likewise, someone like Darren Sproles may have been one of the top RBs in college football, but his skills don't translate to the NFL. The same goes for Frank Gore, Anthony Davis, and Derrick Knight. Great college players? Maybe. Great pro prospects? Hardly.