[DYNASTY] Rank the top 15 rookie RB's (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

1. R. Brown - (6-0, 233, 4.44) Big and fast with good hands. Surest RB in the draft.2. Cadillac - (5-11, 217, 4.45) He bulked up and can become a big-time player since he's has great vision running the ball. Not a great receiver.3. C. Benson - (5-11, 222, 4.50?) Has the talent to be a successful NFL RB. Very durable.4. M.Barber III - (5-11, 221, 4.49) good, hard runner and good speed. 5. JJ Arrington - (5-9, 214, 4.45) Durability issues, but has good speed and hands (Brian Westbrook clone).6. C. Houston - (5-11, 225, 4.50?) good size and speed, injury problems but has a lot of potential7. C. Fason - (6-0, 207, 4.57) The whole package, but hasn't lived up to his potential. Could be the best RB in the draft if he works on his game.8. Eric Shelton - (6-1, 246, 4.59) - good speed for his size, not a good receiver9. V. Morency -(5-10, 212, 4.66) Good size and explosive, but ran a disappointing 40 that leaves question marks. Will be 25 his rookie year and his potential is probably limited.10. F. Gore (5-9, 215,4.65) - major injury risk and 2 knee injuries have slowed him down. 11. R. Moats (5-8, 210, 4.49) - Like Arrington, could fit into the Brian Westbrook mold if he improves as a receiver12. Brandon Jacobs (6-4, 267, 4.59) - good speed for someone his size, but does he fit in as RB or FB?13. Kay-Jay Harris (6-0. 243, 4.65) - slower version of Duckett with injury problems. Older player and turn 26 in March.14. T.A. McClendon - (5-10, 235, 4.71) average speed with injury concerns.15. M. Clarett (5-10, 234, 4.75) - way too many issues and doesn't have the talent to be a dominating player in the NFL.

 

[Chris Smith]

1. R. Brown - (6-0, 233, 4.44) Big and fast with good hands. Surest RB in the draft.

2. Cadillac - (5-11, 217, 4.45) He bulked up and can become a big-time player since he's has great vision running the ball. Not a great receiver.

3. C. Benson - (5-11, 222, 4.50?) Has the talent to be a successful NFL RB. Very durable.

4. M.Barber III - (5-11, 221, 4.49) good, hard runner and good speed.

5. JJ Arrington - (5-9, 214, 4.45) Durability issues, but has good speed and hands (Brian Westbrook clone).

6. C. Houston - (5-11, 225, 4.50?) good size and speed, injury problems but has a lot of potential

7. C. Fason - (6-0, 207, 4.57) The whole package, but hasn't lived up to his potential. Could be the best RB in the draft if he works on his game.

8. Eric Shelton - (6-1, 246, 4.59) - good speed for his size, not a good receiver

9. V. Morency -(5-10, 212, 4.66) Good size and explosive, but ran a disappointing 40 that leaves question marks. Will be 25 his rookie year and his potential is probably limited.

10. F. Gore (5-9, 215,4.65) - major injury risk and 2 knee injuries have slowed him down.

11. R. Moats (5-8, 210, 4.49) - Like Arrington, could fit into the Brian Westbrook mold if he improves as a receiver

12. Brandon Jacobs (6-4, 267, 4.59) - good speed for someone his size, but does he fit in as RB or FB?

13. Kay-Jay Harris (6-0. 243, 4.65) - slower version of Duckett with injury problems. Older player and turn 26 in March.

14. T.A. McClendon - (5-10, 235, 4.71) average speed with injury concerns.

15. M. Clarett (5-10, 234, 4.75) - way too many issues and doesn't have the talent to be a dominating player in the NFL.

1. Brown - no brainer at # 1 IMO2. Williams - too much potential not to be # 2

3. Benson - should be a 20+ carry back

4. Barber III - is the real deal. Could do much better than anticipated

5. Morency - only real detriment is age but he'll have a solid 7 year career

6. McClendon - Has the talent to be top three if he can stay healthy. I really like him as a dark horse

7. Sproles - All you hear is size, size, size but this kid can play. Has a Barry Sanders-like ability to make people miss. Could fit in as a Brian Westbrook clone for the right team

8. Clarett - I do believe he has the talent to be a legitimate go-to back. What he may be lacking is heart and character

9. Fason - Should stick around in the NFL but will likely never be a 300 carry per season back. Should provide solid depth

10. Eric Shelton - Could surprise in the right offense. Could be a Gary Brown kind of player

11. JJ Arrington - Probably won't be a starter at the NFL level but should stick around much like Fason. Of the two, I believe Fason has the better upside

12. Cedrick Houston - Another player with talent that hasn't put it together. He has a chance to stick

Wild cards are Brendan Jacobs and Frank Gore. Jacobs could be an Okoye clone if in the right offense. Give that kid 20+ carries a game and I believe he could do a solid job. Gore obviously has talent and could emerge as a Terrell Davis-like find in the later rounds if he can stay healthy...

This is as strong of a group of running backs top to bottom as there has been for a long time. Most of these players will have an opportunity to contribute at the pro level.

 

[Finatic]

1. Ronnie Brown-The complete package.A sure fire starter for the next 5 years,maybe longer.2. Caddy Williams-The thing I like about him the most is his vision.A very important trait that all the great RBs have.3. Cedric Benson-Workhorse RB who just plain gets it done every week.Would be a stud on a team that emphasizes the power run game ie.Pitt/Car.4. M. Barber III-This guy has climbed up my charts since the combine.Not great at any one thing,but solid at just about everything.Should be a second round steal for some team.Keep an eye on him as he could be a productive starter for some team for years.5. C. Fason-Had a bad workout which should drop him some next month.I have been to enough Gator games to know that this kid is a player.I still remember his TD vs. Georgia last year as he escaped basically the whole defense in the open field to score a 50yd TD.6. R. Moats-I love this kid.He is a bit on the smallish side(5.9/210)but he has the heart of a lion and he had some impressive #'s vs. some top caliber teams in 2004.Could surprise if he goes to the right situation.7. Eric Shelton-You have to love his measurables.Another guy who would fit like a glove in say Pittsburgh..8. V. Morency-Another guy whose bad 40 time has hurt his stock.He has oodles of talent and his only drawback outside of his poor 40 time is his age.Still he will probably be another 2nd/3rd round RB who could excel in the right situation.9. JJ Arrington-He reminds me alot of Ahman Green the way he runs.He is a bit on the smallish side which will knock him down a little.You can't argue with the production he put up at Cal last year though.Need to work on his receiving skills,but he should find a home somewhere.10. C. Houston-Here is the wild card of the RB class in my opinion.He is a very instinctive runner,but lacks that extra gear the great backs have.He wasn't the most durable guy at Tenn. and that could be a problem in the pros.If he can stay healthy he could surprise.11. Brandon Jacobs-Excellent measurables,he looked real good at the Shrine game.I also have doubts as to where he will play in the pros(RB/FB).12. KJ. Harris-He can look like a beast on some days then he can look just plain average.Durability a concern as is his age.Did look good in the post season games.He has a chance to stick somewhere with the chance to excel if the pieces all fall together.These are my top 12 at the moment.I'm sure I will tinker with it a little bit as we get closer to the draft.Overall a pretty solid class this year with the underclassmen coming out.After the top three we have some solid prospects who could be good players depending on where they end up.

 

[beto]

Is Sproles a better back than Q-dog?

 

[Bloom]

***ranking the top 3 is really a matter of taste***1. Brown - he can do everything2. Williams -electrifying natural runner3. Benson - will break the back of defenses in the 4th quarter***next the 2 guys i think will be productive right away***4. Barber - low powerful running style will take him far.5. Morency - great cutter with better speed than 40 time. will take over games.***great RBs with small questions, again a matter of taste ranking within tier***6. Fason - raw but extremely talented. if he develops, will be as good as the big 3.7. Moats - would be with the top 3 if he was a little bigger. another electrifying guy.8. Arrington - top tier if he was a little bigger. production up there with benson.9. Shelton - incredible tools, needs to land in a power running attack.10. Houston - ideal size/speed/skills, but never put it together for a whole season.***RBs with larger questions***11. Harris - physical freak like shelton, but even rawer.12. McClendon - bruising back who runs hard, concentration/fumble issues loom.13. Gore - better than anyone realizes - hasnt been 100% in years14. Sproles - will be a difference maker, just not on every down15. Clarett - cant ignore the production, a project, but one with huge upside.honorable mention:Nash - a combination of Gore's injury history and Clarett's character issues, but with talent and tools to match.Wimbush/Betterson - small school guys... would be top 15 if they did what they did at a DI school.Reyes/Davis - extremely productive, but injury prone college backsPearman - lacks measureables, but does everything you could ask of an RB.Broughton/Jacobs - physical freaks who i expect to be moved broughton-FB, jacobs-DE

 

[TedHead]

just curious, how many of you that knock Arrington actually saw him play.I'm biased, but i'm not sure i've heard of a college RB ever doing more in a season and being ranked so low.

 

[Bloom]

just curious, how many of you that knock Arrington actually saw him play.

I'm biased, but i'm not sure i've heard of a college RB ever doing more in a season and being ranked so low.

i mentioned that he was as productive as benson last year in my rankings. the knock on arrington is simply that he is too small to hold up under the punishment of being an NFL feature back. direct refutations of that include the other backs his size that have held up, and that he held up for a full season last year.i agree that arrington can do everything, i would say that he, brown, and maybe benson are the only 3 RBs in the draft that can be everydown RBs from day one. the others need some polish in the blocking/receiving areas. i put him in my original all-steal team, and i think that at least for the first year or two, he will outproduce many RBs taken before him in dynasty drafts. however, i doubt i take him higher than 6th or 7th RB off the board because others in the draft have shown the ability to produce at or near his level, and have more ideal frames for an NFL feature back.

arringtons fantasy upside: tiki barber

arringtons fantasy downside: warrick dunn

most likely outcome: brian westbrook

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

arringtons fantasy upside: tiki barber

arringtons fantasy downside: warrick dunn

most likely outcome: brian westbrook

Honestly if you think his downside is Warrick Dunn there is no way he should be your #6 or #7 back on the board.

 

[Bloom]

arringtons fantasy upside: tiki barber

arringtons fantasy downside: warrick dunn

most likely outcome: brian westbrook

Honestly if you think his downside is Warrick Dunn there is no way he should be your #6 or #7 back on the board.

i see both morency and barber having a julius jones/tatum bell kind of impact on their team - they are both guys i see as either succeeding or failing as focal points of their teams running attack (eventually). arrington i could see being drafted to be a RBBC member from the get-go and never really being a true feature back with top 10 fantasy upside (like dunn).thats the only reason i rank him behind those two. that ranking could certainly change once i see where each RB ends up. i still see him no higher than 4th regardless of destinations because the other 3 are such great prospects.

 

[mbuehner]

Honestly if you think his downside is Warrick Dunn there is no way he should be your #6 or #7 back on the board.

If any of that were true he'd be the number one player (not just running back) on the board. Every draftees downside is Curtis Enis.

 

[joffer]

Honestly if you think his downside is Warrick Dunn there is no way he should be your #6 or #7 back on the board.

If any of that were true he'd be the number one player (not just running back) on the board. Every draftees downside is Curtis Enis.

every draftee could tear their ACL and develop degenerative arthritis in the knee? I guess that's true.....

 

[-OZ-]

arringtons fantasy upside: tiki barber

arringtons fantasy downside: warrick dunn

most likely outcome: brian westbrook

Honestly if you think his downside is Warrick Dunn there is no way he should be your #6 or #7 back on the board.

i see both morency and barber having a julius jones/tatum bell kind of impact on their team - they are both guys i see as either succeeding or failing as focal points of their teams running attack (eventually). arrington i could see being drafted to be a RBBC member from the get-go and never really being a true feature back with top 10 fantasy upside (like dunn).thats the only reason i rank him behind those two. that ranking could certainly change once i see where each RB ends up. i still see him no higher than 4th regardless of destinations because the other 3 are such great prospects.

I respect your opinions Bloom, and enjoy reading your stuff, but seriously, nobody's DOWNSIDE is a possible HOFer.

 

[Bloom]

Honestly if you think his downside is Warrick Dunn there is no way he should be your #6 or #7 back on the board.

If any of that were true he'd be the number one player (not just running back) on the board. Every draftees downside is Curtis Enis.

if you mean that every draftee could crack up and become a total bust, sure. and every undrafted free agent could become the next priest holmes. but we are talking about likely upside and downside. arrington has been so productive, that its hard to imagine a team taking him and using him strictly as a backup for his whole career. at some point he is going to get a dunn-like role, and it could turn into a barber-like role if he holds up under the punishment. if you just put curtis enis as the downside for every player, that doesnt add much to the discussion.

 

[TedHead]

I'm not here to defend JJ because I think his stats speak for themselves, but I find it amusing how so many can go gaga for some of these other players stats yet virutally ignore JJ. If he put those numbers up at a Big 12 school I'm sure the impression of his size would be entirely different.

 

[Spike]

arringtons fantasy upside: tiki barber

arringtons fantasy downside: warrick dunn

most likely outcome: brian westbrook

Honestly if you think his downside is Warrick Dunn there is no way he should be your #6 or #7 back on the board.

If he thinks there are 5 or 6 better ones, why shouldn't he have them ranked that way?Everyone's entitled to their own opinions. It's not like people's change based on the opinions of others.

 

[Bloom]

arringtons fantasy upside: tiki barber

arringtons fantasy downside: warrick dunn

most likely outcome: brian westbrook

Honestly if you think his downside is Warrick Dunn there is no way he should be your #6 or #7 back on the board.

i see both morency and barber having a julius jones/tatum bell kind of impact on their team - they are both guys i see as either succeeding or failing as focal points of their teams running attack (eventually). arrington i could see being drafted to be a RBBC member from the get-go and never really being a true feature back with top 10 fantasy upside (like dunn).thats the only reason i rank him behind those two. that ranking could certainly change once i see where each RB ends up. i still see him no higher than 4th regardless of destinations because the other 3 are such great prospects.

I respect your opinions Bloom, and enjoy reading your stuff, but seriously, nobody's DOWNSIDE is a possible HOFer.

i guess i should have been clearer - what im getting at is that i see arringtons downside as a guy who never gets more 200-250 carries in a season. i dont see arrington as a bench player, its hard to project his likely downside as a bust player because he hasnt really given any indication that he will be a bust. i was being sloppy.

here's a better one:

arrington's fantasy downside: michael pittman/duce staley.

sorry for the dunn fans i offended.

 

[-OZ-]

arringtons fantasy upside: tiki barber

arringtons fantasy downside: warrick dunn

most likely outcome: brian westbrook

Honestly if you think his downside is Warrick Dunn there is no way he should be your #6 or #7 back on the board.

i see both morency and barber having a julius jones/tatum bell kind of impact on their team - they are both guys i see as either succeeding or failing as focal points of their teams running attack (eventually). arrington i could see being drafted to be a RBBC member from the get-go and never really being a true feature back with top 10 fantasy upside (like dunn).thats the only reason i rank him behind those two. that ranking could certainly change once i see where each RB ends up. i still see him no higher than 4th regardless of destinations because the other 3 are such great prospects.

I respect your opinions Bloom, and enjoy reading your stuff, but seriously, nobody's DOWNSIDE is a possible HOFer.

i guess i should have been clearer - what im getting at is that i see arringtons downside as a guy who never gets more 200-250 carries in a season. i dont see arrington as a bench player, its hard to project his likely downside as a bust player because he hasnt really given any indication that he will be a bust. i was being sloppy.

here's a better one:

arrington's fantasy downside: michael pittman/duce staley.

sorry for the dunn fans i offended.

I think we're going to have the same arguments.You already got it out though, the downside is a bust, you're looking at the likelihood of what role they would play IF they are a productive player. Which really isn't the true downside. My concern is people will misconstrue your statements and overvalue these rookies, as "can't miss".

 

[mbuehner]

but we are talking about likely upside and downside.

And again, if the worst Arrington was likely to do is be the next Warrick Dunn he'd be the number one player on the board. You are vastly underestimating how many rookie running backs have mediocre or bad careers, and how valuable a young Warrick Dunn would be to any team (much less Tiki Barber).

arrington has been so productive, that its hard to imagine a team taking him and using him strictly as a backup for his whole career.

Does any team draft a running back to make him a career backup?

at some point he is going to get a dunn-like role, and it could turn into a barber-like role if he holds up under the punishment.

Assuming that role is far different than reaching that level of success. Amos Zerueae has a Tiki Barber like role but no-one would confuse the two.

if you just put curtis enis as the downside for every player, that doesnt add much to the discussion.

Possibly, but we seem to have different definitions of upside/downside as compared to whom a player may resemble or what role he plays. Drafting a back is a gamble, and not because of injury. Some guys just dont translate to the NFL or get up to speed. Thats what makes "can't miss" prospects (even though they arent) so sought after. JJ Arrington is not a cant miss prospect. Ok, his upside could be Tiki Barber, but his downside is career backup, which is what the majority of second and third round backs end up being. Seriously, if you had to gamble a bunch of money you'd bet on Arrington being _at worst_ the next Warrick Dunn?

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

i guess i should have been clearer - what im getting at is that i see arringtons downside as a guy who never gets more 200-250 carries in a season. i dont see arrington as a bench player, its hard to project his likely downside as a bust player because he hasnt really given any indication that he will be a bust.

i was being sloppy.

here's a better one:

arrington's fantasy downside: michael pittman/duce staley.

sorry for the dunn fans i offended.

I'm not really a Dunn fan and you didn't offend me. What I'm saying is that Dunn has been a 15-25 RB for a while. Good RB's last for around 8 years (Dunn certainly has). That means that on average each draft should see 2-3 RB's as good as Dunn, although bumper crops do exist.In general I think that fantasy guys HEAVILY overrate the second-tier RB's. Guys like: O Smith, G Jones, D Foster, M Shipp. There are always a few fresh faces that look pretty good, but don't really have the elite combination of talent, work ethic & mental stability. It's easy to say that guys like that can find a place in the NFL, and they usually do (as the "next big thing"), but they generally wash out pretty quickly too, whreas the elite backs have staying power.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

My concern is people will misconstrue your statements and overvalue these rookies, as "can't miss".

Too ####### late on that one. Didn't you hear? These 3 RBs are going to save the world.

 

[Bloom]

i guess i should have been clearer - what im getting at is that i see arringtons downside as a guy who never gets more 200-250 carries in a season.  i dont see arrington as a bench player, its hard to project his likely downside as a bust player because he hasnt really given any indication that he will be a bust.

i was being sloppy.

here's a better one:

arrington's fantasy downside: michael pittman/duce staley.

sorry for the dunn fans i offended.

I'm not really a Dunn fan and you didn't offend me. What I'm saying is that Dunn has been a 15-25 RB for a while. Good RB's last for around 8 years (Dunn certainly has). That means that on average each draft should see 2-3 RB's as good as Dunn, although bumper crops do exist.In general I think that fantasy guys HEAVILY overrate the second-tier RB's. Guys like: O Smith, G Jones, D Foster, M Shipp. There are always a few fresh faces that look pretty good, but don't really have the elite combination of talent, work ethic & mental stability. It's easy to say that guys like that can find a place in the NFL, and they usually do (as the "next big thing"), but they generally wash out pretty quickly too, whreas the elite backs have staying power.

in a normal RB class, i would agree, but so many excellent underclassmen RB came out this year, that RBs who would normally be in that mid 2nd sweet spot(where julius and tatum went last year) are going to fall to the 3rd and 4th... there are more guys who have that combination you speak of at RB than any class ive seen in a while.some people believe that its just impossible for a draft to produce 6-10 solid feature backs, but im tellin ya, this class has the potential to do just that.

remember this: if kevin jones/tatum bell/julius jones is in this draft class, they're in the morency/barber/arrington echelon...

 

[Bloom]

My concern is people will misconstrue your statements and overvalue these rookies, as "can't miss".

Too ####### late on that one. Didn't you hear? These 3 RBs are going to save the world.

and slay the dragon in the process...

 

[Kit Fisto]

Guys, guys, guys...We as fantasy players go through this every year. Over-speculating. I see you guys ranking 10-14 RBs. Where are they all gonna go?Do a little history search. www.drafthistory.comMaybe, if we're lucky, 5 or 6 of these guys will ever amount to anything. 2001 being a flukey year, most of the guys drafted become career backups or are out of the league.

 

[Bloom]

i guess i should have been clearer - what im getting at is that i see arringtons downside as a guy who never gets more 200-250 carries in a season.  i dont see arrington as a bench player, its hard to project his likely downside as a bust player because he hasnt really given any indication that he will be a bust.

i was being sloppy.

here's a better one:

arrington's fantasy downside: michael pittman/duce staley.

sorry for the dunn fans i offended.

I'm not really a Dunn fan and you didn't offend me. What I'm saying is that Dunn has been a 15-25 RB for a while. Good RB's last for around 8 years (Dunn certainly has). That means that on average each draft should see 2-3 RB's as good as Dunn, although bumper crops do exist.In general I think that fantasy guys HEAVILY overrate the second-tier RB's. Guys like: O Smith, G Jones, D Foster, M Shipp. There are always a few fresh faces that look pretty good, but don't really have the elite combination of talent, work ethic & mental stability. It's easy to say that guys like that can find a place in the NFL, and they usually do (as the "next big thing"), but they generally wash out pretty quickly too, whreas the elite backs have staying power.

this year's 2nd tier RBs are a regular year's first tier, if you consider kjones/bell/jjones first tier last year.

 

[Bloom]

Guys, guys, guys...

We as fantasy players go through this every year. Over-speculating. I see you guys ranking 10-14 RBs. Where are they all gonna go?

Do a little history search. www.drafthistory.com

Maybe, if we're lucky, 5 or 6 of these guys will ever amount to anything. 2001 being a flukey year, most of the guys drafted become career backups or are out of the league.

not this year. morency, barber, shelton, moats, and fason all came out early. if benson, brown, and caddy had come out early last year, it would have been last years draft producing a ridiculous amount of feature RBs. instead those guys waited, and for some reason this year all the talented junior RBs came out... i dont get it, but there it is.

 

[JohnnyU]

Guys, guys, guys...

We as fantasy players go through this every year. Over-speculating. I see you guys ranking 10-14 RBs. Where are they all gonna go?

Do a little history search. www.drafthistory.com

Maybe, if we're lucky, 5 or 6 of these guys will ever amount to anything. 2001 being a flukey year, most of the guys drafted become career backups or are out of the league.

How true. I would like to add to that, how many starting jobs are there?

 

[Kit Fisto]

What I'm saying is... every year, we say the same thing over and over again... 'this guy has "can't miss" talent'Guess what, they do miss! Every stinkin' year!Chris Perry, Greg Jones, William Green, Mo Morris, Ladell Betts, Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, Kevin Faulk, Mike Cloud, Jermaine Fazande, Curtis Enis, John Avery, Robert Holcombe, Byron Hanspard, Tim Biakabutuka, Leeland McElroy... you guys would have listed all these former 1st and 2nd rounders as "can't miss" too!I'm not denying that some of these guys are talented, and some team is gonna find a gem in the later rounds, but c'mon, they can't ALL be studs in the making. It just doesn't work out that easily!

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

I can't take it anymore....The way I read Bloom's downside ranking....IF THE RB DEVELOPS TO HIS MAX POTENTIAL, THE UPSIDE IS XXX, the DOWNSIDE IS XXXXSaying Arrington's downside is Warrick Dunn, Duce Staley, Pittman etc. is saying if he develops to his full potential, that's the bottom end of comparable backs.Likely.... WestbrookTop End.... TikiPlease correct me if I'm wrong, Bloom.Yes, we all know that EVERY pick has full-blown bust potential. I for one don't run my rookie drafts that way. If that was my view of things, I would simply trade away all my rookie picks for vets throughout the season and not bother reading these threads.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

Now, for more rankings:

And they break nicely into groups of 3....

Barry Jive's Uptown Fifteen

1. Brown - simply not much to debate here.

2. Cadillac - Reminds me of Marcus Allen with the slight build, elusiveness, and nose for the goal line

3. Benson - Can carry the load, that's been proven.

4. Morency - Despite the 40-time, he's still an elite combo of power, burst & vision

5. Fason - He's going to be a better pro than college player. Portis-like potential

6. Barber - He's a Steeler RB if I ever saw one.

7. JJ Arrington - Love the complete package. Odds are he'll be 4th or 5th off the board. Many teams like him at the Top of RD2 (ARZ especially).

8. Brandon Jacobs - Nightmare combo of size/speed/power. Gonna be an instant goal-line RB

9. Kay-Jay Harris - Another freakish combo of size/speed. Good hands as well with YAC ability out of the backfield. Like Morency, a little more "mature."

10. Frank Gore - He kept Portis off the field. Once he regains the strength in his legs, he'll be a very good RB

11. Ryan Moats - Slippery little dude who repeatedly carried 30 times a game. Small but durable.

12. Alvin Pearman - I can't wait to scoop him up late in dynasty drafts. Mewelde Moore of 2005.

13. Cedric Houston - Another of the many TEN RBs who do better in the pros than when splitting time in the TEN backfield.

14. Darren Sproles - He just defies odds at every level. May continue to do the same.

15. Ryan Grant - He's better than most think. If he ever gets on the field, you might not be able to get him off. Someone will be #####ing about "starters don't lose their job to injury" as they watch Grant take over for them.

RB's Not in my Top 15:

Eric Shelton - He's a FB and just doesn't know it yet. But he's being ranked as a Top Flight RB and will be a disappointment for his front office.

Maurice Clarett - How can a guy who can't find the intestinal fortitude to gut out the combines make it through training camp? Everyone was happy to bash the quitter Eric Crouch. Clarett = Crouch of the RBs

T.A. McClendon - Won't block. Won't play hurt. Fumbles A TON. Coaches who expect players to show it in practice before giving a shot on the field will never let him off the pine.

Three Deep Sleepers:

Walter Reyes - Can run and catch and has a great nose for the end-zone. Injury issues keep him out ot the Top 15.

Damien Nash - Would have been a highly rated back next year if he stayed in school. But clashes with HC Pinkel at Mizzou made it impossible to stay. Excellent size/speed combo with nice instincts. Character issues will make him a late Day2 pick.

Manuel White - FB size who can fill the role of a power back. Another late round sleeper who'll stick.

 

[Finatic]

Now, for more rankings:

And they break nicely into groups of 3....

Barry Jive's Uptown Fifteen

1. Brown - simply not much to debate here.

2. Cadillac - Reminds me of Marcus Allen with the slight build, elusiveness, and nose for the goal line

3. Benson - Can carry the load, that's been proven.

4. Morency - Despite the 40-time, he's still an elite combo of power, burst & vision

5. Fason - He's going to be a better pro than college player. Portis-like potential

6. Barber - He's a Steeler RB if I ever saw one.

7. JJ Arrington - Love the complete package. Odds are he'll be 4th or 5th off the board. Many teams like him at the Top of RD2 (ARZ especially).

8. Brandon Jacobs - Nightmare combo of size/speed/power. Gonna be an instant goal-line RB

9. Kay-Jay Harris - Another freakish combo of size/speed. Good hands as well with YAC ability out of the backfield. Like Morency, a little more "mature."

10. Frank Gore - He kept Portis off the field. Once he regains the strength in his legs, he'll be a very good RB

11. Ryan Moats - Slippery little dude who repeatedly carried 30 times a game. Small but durable.

12. Alvin Pearman - I can't wait to scoop him up late in dynasty drafts. Mewelde Moore of 2005.

13. Cedric Houston - Another of the many TEN RBs who do better in the pros than when splitting time in the TEN backfield.

14. Darren Sproles - He just defies odds at every level. May continue to do the same.

15. Ryan Grant - He's better than most think. If he ever gets on the field, you might not be able to get him off. Someone will be #####ing about "starters don't lose their job to injury" as they watch Grant take over for them.

RB's Not in my Top 15:

Eric Shelton - He's a FB and just doesn't know it yet. But he's being ranked as a Top Flight RB and will be a disappointment for his front office.

Maurice Clarett - How can a guy who can't even have the intestinal fortitude to gut out the combines even make it through training camp? Everyone was happy to bash the quitter Eric Crouch. Clarett = Crouch of the RBs

T.A. McClendon - Won't block. Won't play hurt. Fumbles A TON. Coaches who expect players to show it in practice before giving a shot on the field will never let him off the pine.

Three Deep Sleepers:

Walter Reyes - Can run and catch and has a great nose for the end-zone. Injury issues keep him out ot the Top 15.

Damien Nash - Would have been a highly rated back next year if he stayed in school. But clashes with HC Pinkel at Mizzou made it impossible to stay. Excellent size/speed combo with nice instincts. Character issues will make him a late Day2 pick.

Manuel White - FB size who can fill the role of a power back. Another late round sleeper who'll stick.

Nice,well thought out list Barry

 

[Finatic]

What I'm saying is... every year, we say the same thing over and over again... 'this guy has "can't miss" talent'

Guess what, they do miss! Every stinkin' year!

Chris Perry, Greg Jones, William Green, Mo Morris, Ladell Betts, Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate, Kevin Faulk, Mike Cloud, Jermaine Fazande, Curtis Enis, John Avery, Robert Holcombe, Byron Hanspard, Tim Biakabutuka, Leeland McElroy... you guys would have listed all these former 1st and 2nd rounders as "can't miss" too!

I'm not denying that some of these guys are talented, and some team is gonna find a gem in the later rounds, but c'mon, they can't ALL be studs in the making. It just doesn't work out that easily!

I honestly believe this year will be different.I know as FF enthusiasists we all tend to get a bit crazy regarding rookie RBs.I would be shocked if this draft class didn't yield 3-4 potential pro bowlers down the line.There are just too many talented guys at the RB position this year for this not to happen....

 

[Bloom]

I can't take it anymore....

The way I read Bloom's downside ranking....

IF THE RB DEVELOPS TO HIS MAX POTENTIAL, THE UPSIDE IS XXX, the DOWNSIDE IS XXXX

Saying Arrington's downside is Warrick Dunn, Duce Staley, Pittman etc. is saying if he develops to his full potential, that's the bottom end of comparable backs.

Likely.... Westbrook

Top End.... Tiki

Please correct me if I'm wrong, Bloom.

Yes, we all know that EVERY pick has full-blown bust potential. I for one don't run my rookie drafts that way. If that was my view of things, I would simply trade away all my rookie picks for vets throughout the season and not bother reading these threads.

thank you. that is exactly what im getting at.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

You wanted to add something, Bloom?(I love being able to see who's typing!

 

[Bloom]

another factor i have toss into any thread about rookie RBs is the new salary cap reality of the NFL. when all these 2005 backs are in the 2nd/3rd year of their rookie contract, they are going to start looking like better options for a team at their salary than the established vet who is getting twice as much, if not more. look at the lack of interest in edge and SA, who are top 5 backs, getting top 5 salary. teams know they can get production from the RB position for cheap.all of top 8-10 guys except the ones who completely implode are going to get their shot in the next 2-3 years because of the cap. situations like deuce/ricky and rudi/dillon are going to come up more and more in the near future.

 

[Finatic]

another factor i have toss into any thread about rookie RBs is the new salary cap reality of the NFL. when all these 2005 backs are in the 2nd/3rd year of their rookie contract, they are going to start looking like better options for a team at their salary than the established vet who is getting twice as much, if not more. look at the lack of interest in edge and SA, who are top 5 backs, getting top 5 salary. teams know they can get production from the RB position for cheap.

all of top 8-10 guys except the ones who completely implode are going to get their shot in the next 2-3 years because of the cap. situations like deuce/ricky and rudi/dillon are going to come up more and more in the near future.

 

[JohnnyU]

One thing is for certain, there are only so many starting jobs to go around. I think what Kit Fisto is saying (and I paraphrase), is that all of them can't be studs every year. Yet we treat most of them like they will all start, and history shows us this isn't true. For every Clinton Portis you have 3 or 4 Justin Fargas' L Toefield's and Ron Dayne's. The list is huge. So basically, temper your expectations on how many studs will develop from any list of rookie RB's. I know that is hard to do, and we do have different opinions on who will be the next stud, which fuels the hype for lots of rookie RB's.

 

[Bloom]

folks, you are all going to get annoyed (if you arent already) at me hyping this rookie class. you can have your rules of thumb about only 5 Rbs in any class amounting to anything, and no RB taken later than the 2nd being worth watching, but neither of those apply to this class because of depth. again, any RB from last years class would rate below the big 3, and only slightly above (if at all) the morency/barber/arrington/fason echelon. you can say morency will fail because he's the 7th RB off the board in the late 3rd, and im gonna tell you that he is just as good as julius jones and tatum bell who are going in the first 2 rounds of dynasty drafts. even if the situation isnt as plum as bell/jones, you are drafting for their entire career. eventually talent finds its opportunity.now if we're talking redraft, definitely pay no attention to what im saying. its possible that only 2 or 3 of these guys will make an impact this year without injuries befalling the starters ahead of them. but for dynasty, it doesnt get much better than this RB class.

 

[mbuehner]

this year's 2nd tier RBs are a regular year's first tier, if you consider kjones/bell/jjones first tier last year.

I dont get where this is coming from, but as I understand it Kevin Jones was ranked about the same as the Big Three this year, with assumedly SJackson very close. Bell and JJones were never rated in that tier so that doesnt apply. The point is there may be more talented RBs this year than last numbers wise, but not necessarilly markedly better. Which is fine, 3 Kevin Joneses would still have a major impact on the league, but I havent seen any evidence that the Big 3 are far away better than Jones and Jackson, so much so that they would push those two into the second bucket. If that were the case why do these guys fall to the second and third rounds? Are you telling me there arent teams late in the first round that wouldnt take Kevin Jones in a heatbeat if they could get him at the end of the first, even if he was the X-th best RB in the draft? That doesnt make a lot of sense. I get the distinct impression that the utter mediocrity in the rest of this draft has given the false impression that this RB class is unprecidented. It may be special, but i've seen nothing to show its somehow ungodly talented. For that matter why then are there 2 QBs slotted to go ahead of any of them that couldnt hold Palmer or Mannings jock?

 

[Bloom]

this year's 2nd tier RBs are a regular year's first tier, if you consider kjones/bell/jjones first tier last year.

I dont get where this is coming from, but as I understand it Kevin Jones was ranked about the same as the Big Three this year, with assumedly SJackson very close. Bell and JJones were never rated in that tier so that doesnt apply. The point is there may be more talented RBs this year than last numbers wise, but not necessarilly markedly better. Which is fine, 3 Kevin Joneses would still have a major impact on the league, but I havent seen any evidence that the Big 3 are far away better than Jones and Jackson, so much so that they would push those two into the second bucket. If that were the case why do these guys fall to the second and third rounds? Are you telling me there arent teams late in the first round that wouldnt take Kevin Jones in a heatbeat if they could get him at the end of the first, even if he was the X-th best RB in the draft? That doesnt make a lot of sense.

I get the distinct impression that the utter mediocrity in the rest of this draft has given the false impression that this RB class is unprecidented. It may be special, but i've seen nothing to show its somehow ungodly talented. For that matter why then are there 2 QBs slotted to go ahead of any of them that couldnt hold Palmer or Mannings jock?

i dont think this draft is mediocre, unless youre only talking about the top 15-20, which are definitely subpar compared to the level of guys that typically go in those slots. if you look at top 100, i think this draft compares well to others.

 

[mbuehner]

i dont think this draft is mediocre, unless youre only talking about the top 15-20, which are definitely subpar compared to the level of guys that typically go in those slots. if you look at top 100, i think this draft compares well to others.

You're probably right, but the real difference makers are found in the first 15-20 traditionally. And by that i mean guys that can step in and make an impact right away or almost immediately. But thats kind of my point, if those first 20 guys (RBs excluded) are crappier than usual, the supposedly amazing second tier of RBs should shoot up the board, not languish in the second and third rounds.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This draft is so deep with RBs that every single team is going to draft a RB this year and cut their current RB to save some cash. Except maybe the Chargers. I think there's one scout that thinks LT is better than the 32nd best RB this year. He'll be kicked out of the scouting profession soon, though.

 

[Finatic]

This draft is so deep with RBs that every single team is going to draft a RB this year and cut their current RB to save some cash. Except maybe the Chargers. I think there's one scout that thinks LT is better than the 32nd best RB this year. He'll be kicked out of the scouting profession soon, though.

 

[Bloom]

i dont think this draft is mediocre, unless youre only talking about the top 15-20, which are definitely subpar compared to the level of guys that typically go in those slots. if you look at top 100, i think this draft compares well to others.

You're probably right, but the real difference makers are found in the first 15-20 traditionally. And by that i mean guys that can step in and make an impact right away or almost immediately. But thats kind of my point, if those first 20 guys (RBs excluded) are crappier than usual, the supposedly amazing second tier of RBs should shoot up the board, not languish in the second and third rounds.

the big 3 RBs all being mentioned as top 10 picks is due to exactly the effect you are describing - the crappy top 15-20. in a draft with a more normal top 15-20 prospects, you would see them more spread out in the first. still, i see all 3 of them being starting NFL RBs for at least 3-5 years over the course of their careers barring complete implosions. now, the 2nd tier are all guys i think deserve 2nd round grades - i dont think any of them will be the next LT or Faulk - there's no reason to reach for them in the 1st. that being said, the track record of 2nd round RBs is a good one - however, because there are so many of them with 2nd round grades, i think some will fall to 3rd and even 4th. and some will say, nothing good comes out of the 3rd and 4th round at RB. thats where the analysis will be wrong. these guys will have artificially low draft positions because of the strength of their class. in the end, i think it makes them MORE likely to get starting jobs down the line, because they will be signed at 3rd or 4th round rookie contracts, which will be a ridiculous bargain when compared to the entrenched vet starter...

 

[Bloom]

This draft is so deep with RBs that every single team is going to draft a RB this year and cut their current RB to save some cash. Except maybe the Chargers. I think there's one scout that thinks LT is better than the 32nd best RB this year. He'll be kicked out of the scouting profession soon, though.

i know youre joking, but when you see the lack of interest in SA, edge, and henry, you might not be too far off.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This draft is so deep with RBs that every single team is going to draft a RB this year and cut their current RB to save some cash. Except maybe the Chargers. I think there's one scout that thinks LT is better than the 32nd best RB this year. He'll be kicked out of the scouting profession soon, though.

i know youre joking, but when you see the lack of interest in SA, edge, and henry, you might not be too far off.

Yeah, I was joking. But one thing isn't a joke: the salary cap ramifications of building a team are starting to require teams to not overpay for RB production. My argument is that all these college and rookie RBs can not just step right in. The RB production will fall, both in real life and in fantasy terms. If the team uses that extra money on players that help it win a championship (DE, CB, etc), then it's good for them to do. But expecting teams to draft the 4th - 8th RBs in this "deep" RB class and get the same statistical performance as they have with their current RBs is laughable, IMHO.

 

[mbuehner]

But expecting teams to draft the 4th - 8th RBs in this "deep" RB class and get the same statistical performance as they have with their current RBs is laughable, IMHO.

My question stands: if you are the Eagles, or Indy, or the Jets and a player you supposedly think is as good as Kevin Jones is on the board at the end of the first round, are you really going to pass him over for a guard or a WR that probably wont even play this year? I agree with what you are saying, but all it goes to show is that the argument that the 2nd and 3rd round RBs in this years draft are as good as the best of last years draft is ridiculous. If they were teams would take them and to hell with the cap implications down the road. We've all seen what happened in Minnesota and Denver last season no? Having depth at RB is important, if you can get a backup that might be good enough to be a legit starter in the league, of course you take him if you can get him. The trade value alone would be worth it. What do you think the Rams could get for Stevan Jackson right now? Plenty. The two guys from last year are looking like game breakers, and to suggest there are 7 or 8 guys just like them in the draft but teams will let them fall into the third round is absurd.

 

[Bloom]

This draft is so deep with RBs that every single team is going to draft a RB this year and cut their current RB to save some cash. Except maybe the Chargers. I think there's one scout that thinks LT is better than the 32nd best RB this year. He'll be kicked out of the scouting profession soon, though.

i know youre joking, but when you see the lack of interest in SA, edge, and henry, you might not be too far off.

Yeah, I was joking. But one thing isn't a joke: the salary cap ramifications of building a team are starting to require teams to not overpay for RB production. My argument is that all these college and rookie RBs can not just step right in. The RB production will fall, both in real life and in fantasy terms. If the team uses that extra money on players that help it win a championship (DE, CB, etc), then it's good for them to do. But expecting teams to draft the 4th - 8th RBs in this "deep" RB class and get the same statistical performance as they have with their current RBs is laughable, IMHO.

this year, yes. but down the line, as some of the rawer guys become more polished, it wont be laughable, and if youre drafting for a dynasty league, you have to project the players career, not just this season.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

This draft is so deep with RBs that every single team is going to draft a RB this year and cut their current RB to save some cash. Except maybe the Chargers. I think there's one scout that thinks LT is better than the 32nd best RB this year. He'll be kicked out of the scouting profession soon, though.

i know youre joking, but when you see the lack of interest in SA, edge, and henry, you might not be too far off.

Yeah, I was joking. But one thing isn't a joke: the salary cap ramifications of building a team are starting to require teams to not overpay for RB production. My argument is that all these college and rookie RBs can not just step right in. The RB production will fall, both in real life and in fantasy terms. If the team uses that extra money on players that help it win a championship (DE, CB, etc), then it's good for them to do. But expecting teams to draft the 4th - 8th RBs in this "deep" RB class and get the same statistical performance as they have with their current RBs is laughable, IMHO.

I agree that salary cap --> teams not overpay for RB. Hower in the long run I think the implication is that RB vet salaries decline, rather than that vets tend to be replaces by rookies. In other words, in the long run I expect the 32 starting RB's (40 if you include RBBC) to approximate the 40 best RB's, regardless of age.

 

[Bloom]

But expecting teams to draft the 4th - 8th RBs in this "deep" RB class and get the same statistical performance as they have with their current RBs is laughable, IMHO.

My question stands: if you are the Eagles, or Indy, or the Jets and a player you supposedly think is as good as Kevin Jones is on the board at the end of the first round, are you really going to pass him over for a guard or a WR that probably wont even play this year?I agree with what you are saying, but all it goes to show is that the argument that the 2nd and 3rd round RBs in this years draft are as good as the best of last years draft is ridiculous. If they were teams would take them and to hell with the cap implications down the road. We've all seen what happened in Minnesota and Denver last season no? Having depth at RB is important, if you can get a backup that might be good enough to be a legit starter in the league, of course you take him if you can get him. The trade value alone would be worth it. What do you think the Rams could get for Stevan Jackson right now? Plenty. The two guys from last year are looking like game breakers, and to suggest there are 7 or 8 guys just like them in the draft but teams will let them fall into the third round is absurd.

youre underestimating the quality of players available in the 2nd round this year at positions other than RB. many teams will pass on that 2nd round graded RB because there are still 3 or 4 on the board, and the LB/CB/whatever who is graded 2nd round is the last one left - or the last one with the particular strengths they value. youll take the non-RB and then take the best of whats left in the 3rd. this is the point i have been trying to make for the whole thread - 2nd round graded Rbs will last til the 3rd or even 4th because there are so many of them and teams will fill other needs first, counting on one of them to slip.that being said, it wouldnt shock me if exactly the scenario you describe unfolds. i could see 8-10 teams each having their eye on 1 or 2 of the 2nd tier RBs. if the first one goes at say, pick 45, they will last. but if the first one goes in the mid 30s, i could see a run on those 2nd tier RBs because teams will have gotten nervous.

 

[Bloom]

This draft is so deep with RBs that every single team is going to draft a RB this year and cut their current RB to save some cash. Except maybe the Chargers. I think there's one scout that thinks LT is better than the 32nd best RB this year. He'll be kicked out of the scouting profession soon, though.

i know youre joking, but when you see the lack of interest in SA, edge, and henry, you might not be too far off.

Yeah, I was joking. But one thing isn't a joke: the salary cap ramifications of building a team are starting to require teams to not overpay for RB production. My argument is that all these college and rookie RBs can not just step right in. The RB production will fall, both in real life and in fantasy terms. If the team uses that extra money on players that help it win a championship (DE, CB, etc), then it's good for them to do. But expecting teams to draft the 4th - 8th RBs in this "deep" RB class and get the same statistical performance as they have with their current RBs is laughable, IMHO.

I agree that salary cap --> teams not overpay for RB. Hower in the long run I think the implication is that RB vet salaries decline, rather than that vets tend to be replaces by rookies. In other words, in the long run I expect the 32 starting RB's (40 if you include RBBC) to approximate the 40 best RB's, regardless of age.

i agree, and im not giving that possibility enough weight. vet RBs are going to get the message real quick that they arent going get portis money in the FA market.