Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)

[Q-Bert]

Sidney Rice >>>>>> Miles Austin.Austin was 4 for 34 today. If we extrapolate for a whole season we can predict with accuracy that next year he will produce:64 receptions; 544 yards 0 TDs. Mwwaaaahhhhhhhh. Maybe not. But the Vikings DBs are not exactly Revis and they shut him down stone cold. Sidney Rice is looking like a true elite talent. Wish I had pulled the trigger and traded for Rice earlier this year.

WTF? Reggie Bush >>>>>>>> Adrian Peterson?Matt Leinart >>>>>>>> Tony Romo?Devery Henderson >>>>>> Robert Meachem?

I'm not exactly jumping up and down to defend a guy making a judgement based on one game, but, your comparisons are not even close to what the guy is saying. Leinart over Romo is ridiculous. Sidney Rice over Miles Austin is certainly debatable.

 

[todisco1]

Sidney Rice >>>>>> Miles Austin.Austin was 4 for 34 today. If we extrapolate for a whole season we can predict with accuracy that next year he will produce:64 receptions; 544 yards 0 TDs. Mwwaaaahhhhhhhh. Maybe not. But the Vikings DBs are not exactly Revis and they shut him down stone cold. Sidney Rice is looking like a true elite talent. Wish I had pulled the trigger and traded for Rice earlier this year.

WTF? Reggie Bush >>>>>>>> Adrian Peterson?Matt Leinart >>>>>>>> Tony Romo?Devery Henderson >>>>>> Robert Meachem?

I'm not exactly jumping up and down to defend a guy making a judgement based on one game, but, your comparisons are not even close to what the guy is saying. Leinart over Romo is ridiculous. Sidney Rice over Miles Austin is certainly debatable.

The reasoning is horrible, but Rice/Austin is very close IMO.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm not exactly jumping up and down to defend a guy making a judgement based on one game, but, your comparisons are not even close to what the guy is saying. Leinart over Romo is ridiculous. Sidney Rice over Miles Austin is certainly debatable.

I was pointing out the absolute ludicrousness of leaping to the conclusion that Sidney Rice is way, way better than Miles Austin because of one game. Hyperbole is an effective tool in that case. You can make arguments that Rice is better. But not by saying he outproduced Miles Austin in one game where Tony Romo was running for his life for four quarters.

 

[Mr Two Cents]

I'm not exactly jumping up and down to defend a guy making a judgement based on one game, but, your comparisons are not even close to what the guy is saying. Leinart over Romo is ridiculous. Sidney Rice over Miles Austin is certainly debatable.

I was pointing out the absolute ludicrousness of leaping to the conclusion that Sidney Rice is way, way better than Miles Austin because of one game. Hyperbole is an effective tool in that case. You can make arguments that Rice is better. But not by saying he outproduced Miles Austin in one game where Tony Romo was running for his life for four quarters.

It is not just one game weeks 16 and 17 Rice also kicked butt. It looks like the light turned on for him finally. Going forward with a new QB who knows but if Favre comes back next year I fully expect Rice to be a top a 5-8 WR in a non-ppr league.That also goes for Austin, I would love to have both on my roster.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm not exactly jumping up and down to defend a guy making a judgement based on one game, but, your comparisons are not even close to what the guy is saying. Leinart over Romo is ridiculous. Sidney Rice over Miles Austin is certainly debatable.

I was pointing out the absolute ludicrousness of leaping to the conclusion that Sidney Rice is way, way better than Miles Austin because of one game. Hyperbole is an effective tool in that case. You can make arguments that Rice is better. But not by saying he outproduced Miles Austin in one game where Tony Romo was running for his life for four quarters.

It is not just one game weeks 16 and 17 Rice also kicked butt. It looks like the light turned on for him finally. Going forward with a new QB who knows but if Favre comes back next year I fully expect Rice to be a top a 5-8 WR in a non-ppr league.That also goes for Austin, I would love to have both on my roster.

Look, there's no debating that Rice is a stud. Nobody is saying he isn't. All I'm saying is that proclaiming him to be light years ahead of Austin based on one game's work is nonsensical.

 

[munchkin]

I'm not exactly jumping up and down to defend a guy making a judgement based on one game, but, your comparisons are not even close to what the guy is saying. Leinart over Romo is ridiculous. Sidney Rice over Miles Austin is certainly debatable.

I was pointing out the absolute ludicrousness of leaping to the conclusion that Sidney Rice is way, way better than Miles Austin because of one game. Hyperbole is an effective tool in that case. You can make arguments that Rice is better. But not by saying he outproduced Miles Austin in one game where Tony Romo was running for his life for four quarters.

It is not just one game weeks 16 and 17 Rice also kicked butt. It looks like the light turned on for him finally. Going forward with a new QB who knows but if Favre comes back next year I fully expect Rice to be a top a 5-8 WR in a non-ppr league.That also goes for Austin, I would love to have both on my roster.

Rice may have the talent to be a top wide receiver but having Favre as a QB has helped him tremendously. Favre put the ball in places that other QB's may not be able to under the conditions that he does. That first TD pass to Rice was made under tremendous pressure by a QB who is not afraid to take chances and heave it to a spot down he sidelines. Rice never broke stride and the DB was so shocked that he got the ball there that he made no effort to knock Rice out of bounds. This is also a reflection on the D'back but not many QB's have the onions or accuracy to make that throw. Later, Favre threw a perfect pass toward the turned back of the DB where only Rice could get it, again while not losing his forward momentum. I don't think that Rosenfels and Jackson make those throws. I don't want to sound like I am dissing Rice, I own him too, but having Favre (Manning, Warner, Rivers) as your QB makes a big difference.

 

[thevidon]

I'm not exactly jumping up and down to defend a guy making a judgement based on one game, but, your comparisons are not even close to what the guy is saying. Leinart over Romo is ridiculous. Sidney Rice over Miles Austin is certainly debatable.

I was pointing out the absolute ludicrousness of leaping to the conclusion that Sidney Rice is way, way better than Miles Austin because of one game. Hyperbole is an effective tool in that case. You can make arguments that Rice is better. But not by saying he outproduced Miles Austin in one game where Tony Romo was running for his life for four quarters.

It is not just one game weeks 16 and 17 Rice also kicked butt. It looks like the light turned on for him finally. Going forward with a new QB who knows but if Favre comes back next year I fully expect Rice to be a top a 5-8 WR in a non-ppr league.That also goes for Austin, I would love to have both on my roster.

Rice may have the talent to be a top wide receiver but having Favre as a QB has helped him tremendously. Favre put the ball in places that other QB's may not be able to under the conditions that he does. That first TD pass to Rice was made under tremendous pressure by a QB who is not afraid to take chances and heave it to a spot down he sidelines. Rice never broke stride and the DB was so shocked that he got the ball there that he made no effort to knock Rice out of bounds. This is also a reflection on the D'back but not many QB's have the onions or accuracy to make that throw. Later, Favre threw a perfect pass toward the turned back of the DB where only Rice could get it, again while not losing his forward momentum. I don't think that Rosenfels and Jackson make those throws. I don't want to sound like I am dissing Rice, I own him too, but having Favre (Manning, Warner, Rivers) as your QB makes a big difference.

Agreed, I would be looking to move Rice if I could get top tier value for him because I see lots of mediocre years ahead when Favre is gone in MIN.

 

[Q-Bert]

I'm not exactly jumping up and down to defend a guy making a judgement based on one game, but, your comparisons are not even close to what the guy is saying. Leinart over Romo is ridiculous. Sidney Rice over Miles Austin is certainly debatable.

I was pointing out the absolute ludicrousness of leaping to the conclusion that Sidney Rice is way, way better than Miles Austin because of one game. Hyperbole is an effective tool in that case. You can make arguments that Rice is better. But not by saying he outproduced Miles Austin in one game where Tony Romo was running for his life for four quarters.

Again, I got no dog in this fight.But, are you the only one allowed to use hyperbole?

It's not like this is the guy starting the "Is MJD still better than Reggie Bush" thread. He was obviously over the top in his presentation but his point has some validity.

Eh. sorry for the diversion anyway.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

He was obviously over the top in his presentation but his point has some validity.

What's the validity?

 

[Q-Bert]

He was obviously over the top in his presentation but his point has some validity.

What's the validity?

Maybe I phrased that incorrectly. His conclusion may be valid, not necessarily his point. Sidney Rice may indeed be a much better player than Miles Austin. Rice was a dominant college player who was drafted early in the second round when he was only 20. He had a very good rookie season and looked primed for a breakout in his second year. Unfortunately, he suffered through injury problems and was reduced to basically a jump ball end zone threat. In his third year he looked like a stud. He has all the tools you would want in an NFL (and FF) WR. He is big, fast, strong, can jump out of the gym, and has great hands. That is the upside.Miles Austin was an undrafted free agent who did nothing for 3.25 years and then exploded out of no where. You have to at least allow for the possibility he has a bit of Drew Bennett in him. That is the downside.It could be argued that you will get a lot more attention for your argument that Rice >>>>>>> Austin by prorating Austin's last game out to 16 weeks and saying he will have 500 yards and 0 TDs. Now, I don't necessarily buy that argument, I prefer well reasoned analysis (one of the reasons I come to this thread and read your blog).

 

[Abrantes]

From the way it was worded, I just read az_prof's post as paired with the genuine conclusion that Sidney Rice is a stud.

 

[az_prof]

Sidney Rice >>>>>> Miles Austin.Austin was 4 for 34 today. If we extrapolate for a whole season we can predict with accuracy that next year he will produce:64 receptions; 544 yards 0 TDs. Mwwaaaahhhhhhhh. Maybe not. But the Vikings DBs are not exactly Revis and they shut him down stone cold. Sidney Rice is looking like a true elite talent. Wish I had pulled the trigger and traded for Rice earlier this year.

WTF? Reggie Bush >>>>>>>> Adrian Peterson?Matt Leinart >>>>>>>> Tony Romo?Devery Henderson >>>>>> Robert Meachem?

I'm not exactly jumping up and down to defend a guy making a judgement based on one game, but, your comparisons are not even close to what the guy is saying. Leinart over Romo is ridiculous. Sidney Rice over Miles Austin is certainly debatable.

The Mwaaa was intended to show that I wasn't being serious, at least not completely. I have found it funny how people looked at half a season or so of Austin and project out what he will do and assume he will do it for the next ten years. People are also doing it with Shonne Greene and with Doucet. I am skeptical of such projections and I do in fact think that there is a good chance that Sidney Rice has a better career than Austin.

 

[SSOG]

Is Dwayne Bowe a special talent?

He's a very good talent, and a legit NFL#1, but I wouldn't call him a special talent. I can think of 10-12 more talented WRs off the top of my head.

How do you guys feel about Cassel and/or Garrard? I need a backup QB, but not sure if either will keep the job long term and their salaries aren't cheap. How much would you give up for a QB in this class in a 16 team, 6pt per pass TD league?how do they compare to the incoming crop? (I have 1.04 and 1.13).

I think Cassel's definitely got some job security. He's young, he's getting paid, and the Chiefs have too many needs to bring in ANOTHER QB of the future while they're still evaluating the one they already have. Garrard, on the other hand, I think will be gone before too long. He's older than Cassel, he plays for a franchise with fewer needs, and he was never really viewed as a franchise guy.

Maybe I phrased that incorrectly. His conclusion may be valid, not necessarily his point. Sidney Rice may indeed be a much better player than Miles Austin. Rice was a dominant college player who was drafted early in the second round when he was only 20. He had a very good rookie season and looked primed for a breakout in his second year. Unfortunately, he suffered through injury problems and was reduced to basically a jump ball end zone threat. In his third year he looked like a stud. He has all the tools you would want in an NFL (and FF) WR. He is big, fast, strong, can jump out of the gym, and has great hands. That is the upside.Miles Austin was an undrafted free agent who did nothing for 3.25 years and then exploded out of no where. You have to at least allow for the possibility he has a bit of Drew Bennett in him. That is the downside.It could be argued that you will get a lot more attention for your argument that Rice >>>>>>> Austin by prorating Austin's last game out to 16 weeks and saying he will have 500 yards and 0 TDs. Now, I don't necessarily buy that argument, I prefer well reasoned analysis (one of the reasons I come to this thread and read your blog).

Remember the "good process/bad process" discussion a couple months ago? It doesn't matter if a guy's conclusion is valid if his process is irrevocably flawed. Good process/Bad outcome is better than Bad process/Good outcome because GP/BO will generally lead to more good outcomes in the future, whereas BP/GO just reinforces bad habits and results in fewer good outcomes in the future.

 

[CR69]

He was obviously over the top in his presentation but his point has some validity.

What's the validity?

Maybe I phrased that incorrectly. His conclusion may be valid, not necessarily his point. Sidney Rice may indeed be a much better player than Miles Austin. Rice was a dominant college player who was drafted early in the second round when he was only 20. He had a very good rookie season and looked primed for a breakout in his second year. Unfortunately, he suffered through injury problems and was reduced to basically a jump ball end zone threat. In his third year he looked like a stud. He has all the tools you would want in an NFL (and FF) WR. He is big, fast, strong, can jump out of the gym, and has great hands. That is the upside.



Miles Austin was an undrafted free agent who did nothing for 3.25 years and then exploded out of no where. You have to at least allow for the possibility he has a bit of Drew Bennett in him. That is the downside.

It could be argued that you will get a lot more attention for your argument that Rice >>>>>>> Austin by prorating Austin's last game out to 16 weeks and saying he will have 500 yards and 0 TDs. Now, I don't necessarily buy that argument, I prefer well reasoned analysis (one of the reasons I come to this thread and read your blog).

It's true he didn't do much in games, but Cowboys fans have been salivating over Miles' athletic ability since he signed with the team. The last three summers he has gotten a lot of praise in camp, he's just always been inconsistent. I still think he struggles to catch the ball at times, he dropped quite a few easy passes this year, and has room to improve. I'm not saying Miles is better than Rice, I honestly don't know if I could rank one above the other, but Austin did not come out of nowhere.

 

[todisco1]

Anyone want to project next season's Sidney Rice/Miles Austin? WRs who leaped into the upper echelon after doing little their first couple of seasons...

One of my choices would be:

Devin Thomas - if he *gets it*, he has all the physical tools to be elite. This is probably the make or break season for him. I bet he makes it (but I've been wrong before...)

 

[TheWick]

Anyone want to project next season's Sidney Rice/Miles Austin? WRs who leaped into the upper echelon after doing little their first couple of seasons...One of my choices would beevin Thomas - if he *gets it*, he has all the physical tools to be elite. This is probably the make or break season for him. I bet he makes it (but I've been wrong before...)

I was hoping the end of the season would have been his coming out party. Campbell was throwing it enough but Thomas got banged up AGAIN. Lets see if the new coaching staff can get him involved. Looks to me he could be a YAC monster.

 

[djmich]

Anyone want to project next season's Sidney Rice/Miles Austin? WRs who leaped into the upper echelon after doing little their first couple of seasons...One of my choices would beevin Thomas - if he *gets it*, he has all the physical tools to be elite. This is probably the make or break season for him. I bet he makes it (but I've been wrong before...)

Laurent Robinson probably the best fit, although MSW is probably a better benchmark in terms of upside as well as injury risk.

 

[corpcow]

Anyone want to project next season's Sidney Rice/Miles Austin? WRs who leaped into the upper echelon after doing little their first couple of seasons...One of my choices would beevin Thomas - if he *gets it*, he has all the physical tools to be elite. This is probably the make or break season for him. I bet he makes it (but I've been wrong before...)

Personally I probably prefer Malcolm Kelly over Devin THomas, but both are good possible breakout candidates and both can probably be had for pennies.Others buys on my list, for various reasons. 1) Malcolm Floyd - I know we've debated this before, but he is just someone who every time I watch I feel has the physical tools and just needs an opportunity. I think he's an RFA himself, but in an ideal scenario he stays in a starting role across from VJax. QUietly put up 45/776 with only 1 TD, but the bulk of that came in weeks 9-16 after Chambers was cut in part to give him his looks. 2) Donnie Avery. Flashed glimpses his rookie year and was solid statistically, but struggled this year with injury and poor QB play. Top WR selected in his draft. Small, but had that maybe Steve Smith kind of look to him on some plays... plays bigger, gets behind defenses. Can possibly be had very cheap given poor season.3) DHB. Price can't be lower, and whether or not he should have been a top 10 pick, he's still a first round talent. Measurables off the chart. He didn't do much while he was in there, but at the same time Jamarcus killed EVERYONE'S value... and when Gradkowski/Frye eventually got in there he was already out with a foot injury. Most owners would probably give him up for a 3rd rounder and IMO his upside is worth it, especially if they figure out the QB situation there.

 

[jwb]

He was obviously over the top in his presentation but his point has some validity.

What's the validity?

Maybe I phrased that incorrectly. His conclusion may be valid, not necessarily his point. Sidney Rice may indeed be a much better player than Miles Austin. Rice was a dominant college player who was drafted early in the second round when he was only 20. He had a very good rookie season and looked primed for a breakout in his second year. Unfortunately, he suffered through injury problems and was reduced to basically a jump ball end zone threat. In his third year he looked like a stud. He has all the tools you would want in an NFL (and FF) WR. He is big, fast, strong, can jump out of the gym, and has great hands. That is the upside.



Miles Austin was an undrafted free agent who did nothing for 3.25 years and then exploded out of no where. You have to at least allow for the possibility he has a bit of Drew Bennett in him. That is the downside.

It could be argued that you will get a lot more attention for your argument that Rice >>>>>>> Austin by prorating Austin's last game out to 16 weeks and saying he will have 500 yards and 0 TDs. Now, I don't necessarily buy that argument, I prefer well reasoned analysis (one of the reasons I come to this thread and read your blog).

It's true he didn't do much in games, but Cowboys fans have been salivating over Miles' athletic ability since he signed with the team. The last three summers he has gotten a lot of praise in camp, he's just always been inconsistent. I still think he struggles to catch the ball at times, he dropped quite a few easy passes this year, and has room to improve. I'm not saying Miles is better than Rice, I honestly don't know if I could rank one above the other, but Austin did not come out of nowhere.

Totally agree. He was on dynasty rosters early last season. He didn't have a great 08, but he did have a few big plays on scant targets, enough to make people take notice and keep him rostered. Then, TO was let go, and Jerry Jones came right out and said it was because of what they had in Miles Austin. Yes, he didn't have a great preseason, and Patrick Crayton beat him out, but that was short lived. I do admit at this point some owners dropped him, but I guarantee he was quickly snatched up if that happened. Anyone paying attention, and having some patience, was definitely rewarded.The more I play this game, the more I realize what a valuable asset patience is when it comes to certain younger players. Guys like EBF have been saying this for awhile, and I've definitely come around to realizing it.

 

[jwb]

Anyone want to project next season's Sidney Rice/Miles Austin? WRs who leaped into the upper echelon after doing little their first couple of seasons...One of my choices would beevin Thomas - if he *gets it*, he has all the physical tools to be elite. This is probably the make or break season for him. I bet he makes it (but I've been wrong before...)

Personally I probably prefer Malcolm Kelly over Devin THomas, but both are good possible breakout candidates and both can probably be had for pennies.Others buys on my list, for various reasons. 1) Malcolm Floyd - I know we've debated this before, but he is just someone who every time I watch I feel has the physical tools and just needs an opportunity. I think he's an RFA himself, but in an ideal scenario he stays in a starting role across from VJax. QUietly put up 45/776 with only 1 TD, but the bulk of that came in weeks 9-16 after Chambers was cut in part to give him his looks. 2) Donnie Avery. Flashed glimpses his rookie year and was solid statistically, but struggled this year with injury and poor QB play. Top WR selected in his draft. Small, but had that maybe Steve Smith kind of look to him on some plays... plays bigger, gets behind defenses. Can possibly be had very cheap given poor season.3) DHB. Price can't be lower, and whether or not he should have been a top 10 pick, he's still a first round talent. Measurables off the chart. He didn't do much while he was in there, but at the same time Jamarcus killed EVERYONE'S value... and when Gradkowski/Frye eventually got in there he was already out with a foot injury. Most owners would probably give him up for a 3rd rounder and IMO his upside is worth it, especially if they figure out the QB situation there.

I think we know what Floyd is. Not thinking a huge breakout is coming. Bye-week filler at best.Avery can definitely be a good one with a decent qb. His value could skyrocket. I'd love to see Bradford end up there. DHB... well, I don't think anyone is selling him for a third. People used a 1 on him - that buys him another year at fairly high prices in a straight up deal. Probably easier to get him cheaply as a trade throw in ("ok... I'll do it - but throw in DHB so I feel like I got something")

 

[EBF]

Avery has a lot of talent, but I'm still a little skeptical of his chances of becoming a reliable WR. Some of the scouting reports coming out of college said he would get rattled and disappear after one big hit. That sure looks to be the case. He's also very small and seemingly has difficulty with physical coverage. Those are the main knocks.

What I like about him is the elite speed and hand-eye coordination. He makes some jaw-dropping plays. He'll be a dangerous deep threat for the next few years. Whether or not he'll take the next step and become a perennial 1000 yard guy will depend on his toughness and consistency. Right now I would say he looks more like a complementary player than a go-to guy.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The best opps for WRs are

#1 in Chicago - probably a FA, might be Aromashodu

#1 in Miami - probably a FA, no one on roster is good enough

#1 in Baltimore - probably a FA, no one on roster is good enough

#2 in Houston - probably Jones

#2 in GB - probably Jones, might be Nelson

#2 in Arizona - probably Doucet, might be Breaston (or vice versa)

#1 in Oakland - probably Schilens, might be Murphy

#1 in Washington - might be Thomas

#1 in St. Louis - might be Avery, might be Robinson

#1 in Cleveland - probably Massaquoi

#2 in Seattle - probably a FA, might be Butler

#2 in Dallas - might be Ogletree

#2 in San Diego - probably Floyd, might be Naanee

[edit] added a couple

 

[awesomeness]

Anyone want to project next season's Sidney Rice/Miles Austin? WRs who leaped into the upper echelon after doing little their first couple of seasons...One of my choices would beevin Thomas - if he *gets it*, he has all the physical tools to be elite. This is probably the make or break season for him. I bet he makes it (but I've been wrong before...)

Personally I probably prefer Malcolm Kelly over Devin THomas, but both are good possible breakout candidates and both can probably be had for pennies.Others buys on my list, for various reasons. 1) Malcolm Floyd - I know we've debated this before, but he is just someone who every time I watch I feel has the physical tools and just needs an opportunity. I think he's an RFA himself, but in an ideal scenario he stays in a starting role across from VJax. QUietly put up 45/776 with only 1 TD, but the bulk of that came in weeks 9-16 after Chambers was cut in part to give him his looks. 2) Donnie Avery. Flashed glimpses his rookie year and was solid statistically, but struggled this year with injury and poor QB play. Top WR selected in his draft. Small, but had that maybe Steve Smith kind of look to him on some plays... plays bigger, gets behind defenses. Can possibly be had very cheap given poor season.3) DHB. Price can't be lower, and whether or not he should have been a top 10 pick, he's still a first round talent. Measurables off the chart. He didn't do much while he was in there, but at the same time Jamarcus killed EVERYONE'S value... and when Gradkowski/Frye eventually got in there he was already out with a foot injury. Most owners would probably give him up for a 3rd rounder and IMO his upside is worth it, especially if they figure out the QB situation there.

DHB is a lost cause imo, always has been. Guy can't run a route, he's skinny, and he can't catch. Not a good combination, particularly for someone who's going to be on the Oakland Raiders for the foreseeable future. If i was an owner, i'd be selling now and would try to get a 2nd rounder. I like the Donnie Avery call though. Avery has nowhere to go but up imo. As you said, he was fighting injuries and had terrible QB play. The Rams could plausibly take a QB with the #1 overall pick which would increase Avery's value considerably and even if they don't, the Rams can't really get any worse as the next few years pass. So the time to buy is now if you can get him cheap imo.

 

[Boone22]

Anyone want to project next season's Sidney Rice/Miles Austin? WRs who leaped into the upper echelon after doing little their first couple of seasons...One of my choices would beevin Thomas - if he *gets it*, he has all the physical tools to be elite. This is probably the make or break season for him. I bet he makes it (but I've been wrong before...)

Laurent Robinson probably the best fit, although MSW is probably a better benchmark in terms of upside as well as injury risk.

I'd add Schillens if he gets a somewhat decent QB throwing to him.

 

[todisco1]

Some great choices on potential WR breakouts.

Love the Laurent Robinson pick - he was easily the best WR on the Rams before being hurt, and was producing even with poor QB play.

For the Raiders, I would go with Schillens or Louis Murphy over DHB. Murphy showed some skill as a rookie and could take a big leap with a moderately improved QB.

Ogletree on Dallas is interesting because he's available in almost every one of my dynasty leagues - does he really have a shot at overtaking Roy next season or is he a hold for a couple of years?

 

[BeTheMatch]

Avery has a lot of talent, but I'm still a little skeptical of his chances of becoming a reliable WR. Some of the scouting reports coming out of college said he would get rattled and disappear after one big hit. That sure looks to be the case. He's also very small and seemingly has difficulty with physical coverage. Those are the main knocks.What I like about him is the elite speed and hand-eye coordination. He makes some jaw-dropping plays. He'll be a dangerous deep threat for the next few years. Whether or not he'll take the next step and become a perennial 1000 yard guy will depend on his toughness and consistency. Right now I would say he looks more like a complementary player than a go-to guy.

He is one of the dumbest football players (on field) I've seen in a long time. He's a guy that will never be on any team of mine. Ever. I can't believe how many examples I saw last year in limited viewing of him. He doesn't get the game of football.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'd put Jacoby Jones on the above lists. He has talent, is a playmaker, has a great situation, and is on a pass first team. Andre will always get his share, but Daniels is not going to be 100% for week 1, if he is ready at all. Jaboby Jones makes plays when given the opportunity. All he has to do is mature and stay healthy. He definitely passes the eye test for me.

 

[az_prof]

The best opps for WRs are#1 in Chicago - probably a FA, might be Aromashodu#1 in Miami - probably a FA, no one on roster is good enough#1 in Baltimore - probably a FA, no one on roster is good enough#2 in Houston - probably Jones#2 in GB - probably Jones, might be Nelson#2 in Arizona - probably Doucet, might be Breaston (or vice versa)#1 in Oakland - probably Schilens, might be Murphy#1 in Washington - might be Thomas#1 in St. Louis - might be Avery, might be Robinson#1 in Cleveland - probably Massaquoi#2 in Seattle - probably a FA, might be Butler#2 in Dallas - might be Ogletree#2 in San Diego - probably Floyd, might be Naanee[edit] added a couple

I would add Bennett as a possibility in Chicago for the #1. He didn't get as much attention as Knox did early or Aromashodu did late, but he performed better than both on some metrics in what was effectively his first year playing too. He has better size than Knox and better hands than Aromashodu. He needs to work on his red zone play, but at 6 foot and with good leaping ability it isn't like he lacks the physical abilityCatch % (targets/receptions):Bennett: 61%Knox: 56%Aromashodu: 55%Is Bennett really less effective with the ball?Average YAC (yards after catch)Bennett: 5.9Knox: 3.4Aromashodu:2.9Average yards/catch:Bennett: 13.3Knox: 11.7Aromachodu: 12.4The only area that Bennett failed to impress was getting into the end zone, but that is one of the most variable of stats for a WR. I believe Bennett is under valued for two reasons. He failed to play in his rookie year and that soured most fantasy owners on him. Second, he didn't get into the end zone as much as Knox or Aromaschodu, so fans saw those players on the highlights more than Bennett and overlooked the consistent contributions and steady play of Bennett in 2009. He obviously needs to take another step but in his third year and as a guy who was a slow starter this doesn't seem unreasonable.

 

[Q-Bert]

Maybe I phrased that incorrectly. His conclusion may be valid, not necessarily his point. Sidney Rice may indeed be a much better player than Miles Austin. Rice was a dominant college player who was drafted early in the second round when he was only 20. He had a very good rookie season and looked primed for a breakout in his second year. Unfortunately, he suffered through injury problems and was reduced to basically a jump ball end zone threat. In his third year he looked like a stud. He has all the tools you would want in an NFL (and FF) WR. He is big, fast, strong, can jump out of the gym, and has great hands. That is the upside.Miles Austin was an undrafted free agent who did nothing for 3.25 years and then exploded out of no where. You have to at least allow for the possibility he has a bit of Drew Bennett in him. That is the downside.It could be argued that you will get a lot more attention for your argument that Rice >>>>>>> Austin by prorating Austin's last game out to 16 weeks and saying he will have 500 yards and 0 TDs. Now, I don't necessarily buy that argument, I prefer well reasoned analysis (one of the reasons I come to this thread and read your blog).

Remember the "good process/bad process" discussion a couple months ago? It doesn't matter if a guy's conclusion is valid if his process is irrevocably flawed. Good process/Bad outcome is better than Bad process/Good outcome because GP/BO will generally lead to more good outcomes in the future, whereas BP/GO just reinforces bad habits and results in fewer good outcomes in the future.

I definitely agree with you on the importance of process. I certainly wasn't defending the process (although I am pretty sure the guy was exaggerating for effect and wasn't really basing his judgment on one game). I just didn't want to see an opportunity for a real discussion about the relative merits of two of the more interesting dynasty breakouts from this last year go to waste.

 

[DoubleG]

The best opps for WRs are#1 in Chicago - probably a FA, might be Aromashodu#1 in Miami - probably a FA, no one on roster is good enough#1 in Baltimore - probably a FA, no one on roster is good enough#2 in Houston - probably Jones#2 in GB - probably Jones, might be Nelson#2 in Arizona - probably Doucet, might be Breaston (or vice versa)#1 in Oakland - probably Schilens, might be Murphy#1 in Washington - might be Thomas#1 in St. Louis - might be Avery, might be Robinson#1 in Cleveland - probably Massaquoi#2 in Seattle - probably a FA, might be Butler#2 in Dallas - might be Ogletree#2 in San Diego - probably Floyd, might be Naanee[edit] added a couple

I would add Bennett as a possibility in Chicago for the #1. He didn't get as much attention as Knox did early or Aromashodu did late, but he performed better than both on some metrics in what was effectively his first year playing too. He has better size than Knox and better hands than Aromashodu. He needs to work on his red zone play, but at 6 foot and with good leaping ability it isn't like he lacks the physical abilityCatch % (targets/receptions):Bennett: 61%Knox: 56%Aromashodu: 55%Is Bennett really less effective with the ball?Average YAC (yards after catch)Bennett: 5.9Knox: 3.4Aromashodu:2.9Average yards/catch:Bennett: 13.3Knox: 11.7Aromachodu: 12.4The only area that Bennett failed to impress was getting into the end zone, but that is one of the most variable of stats for a WR. I believe Bennett is under valued for two reasons. He failed to play in his rookie year and that soured most fantasy owners on him. Second, he didn't get into the end zone as much as Knox or Aromaschodu, so fans saw those players on the highlights more than Bennett and overlooked the consistent contributions and steady play of Bennett in 2009. He obviously needs to take another step but in his third year and as a guy who was a slow starter this doesn't seem unreasonable.

One issue that Bennet seemed to struggle with moreso than either of the other two (that really won't show up in stats) was getting open. A number of his receptions he was absolutely blanketed and Cutler forced the ball into him anyway. Some of this is due to their being familiar with each other from Vandy and some had to do with the fact that for the first half of the season Aroma wasn't even on the field. As a Bears fan I honestly don't see Bennett taking that step. I see him producing about the same in 2010 as he did in 2009. Actually, I could see Bennet slipping a little - especially if the Bears go out and get another WR. If they land a true #1, Bennet's playing time could dwindle, given the money they have tied up in Hester, Aroma's emergence as one of Cutler's "go-to" guys near the tail end of the season (Olsen being the other) and Knox's speed.

 

[n20]

Which players do you guys think can drastically change their perceived value over the next few weeks in the playoffs? We saw Fitz make that mega leap into stardom last year (although most knew it would happen eventually) and Darren Sproles had a nice playoff to boost his value as well. Who makes a leap and who's value rolls off a cliff?

Looks like no one wanted to take any stabs at this but the following players have really set themselves up nicely for a value boost this offseason just form their playoff performances alone:

Sidney Rice

Felix Jones

Shonn Greene

Getting these guys now is much much tougher than it was 3 weeks ago... any predictions on any other potential value jumps?

 

[thevidon]

Looks like no one wanted to take any stabs at this but the following players have really set themselves up nicely for a value boost this offseason just form their playoff performances alone:Sidney RiceFelix JonesShonn GreeneGetting these guys now is much much tougher than it was 3 weeks ago... any predictions on any other potential value jumps?

Early Doucet comes to mind as someone who seems to have gotten a significant bump from his playoff performance.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Which players do you guys think can drastically change their perceived value over the next few weeks in the playoffs? We saw Fitz make that mega leap into stardom last year (although most knew it would happen eventually) and Darren Sproles had a nice playoff to boost his value as well. Who makes a leap and who's value rolls off a cliff?

Looks like no one wanted to take any stabs at this but the following players have really set themselves up nicely for a value boost this offseason just form their playoff performances alone:Sidney RiceFelix JonesShonn GreeneGetting these guys now is much much tougher than it was 3 weeks ago... any predictions on any other potential value jumps?

Pierre Garcon's got a huge chance this week with Revis on Wayne. And if he does well, the announcers will mention he is from Haiti, which will bring more attention to him. If he does nothing the next two games, more people will favor Gonzo taking that slot.The Addai/Brown/Hart struggle also continues. None of those guys did much vs. Baltimore. I could see Hart gaining a lot of value if he has some good plays. He had one good reception vs. Baltimore then they stuck with him a little. Keller has been doing great. Shhh.

 

[travdogg]

Which players do you guys think can drastically change their perceived value over the next few weeks in the playoffs? We saw Fitz make that mega leap into stardom last year (although most knew it would happen eventually) and Darren Sproles had a nice playoff to boost his value as well. Who makes a leap and who's value rolls off a cliff?

Looks like no one wanted to take any stabs at this but the following players have really set themselves up nicely for a value boost this offseason just form their playoff performances alone:Sidney RiceFelix JonesShonn GreeneGetting these guys now is much much tougher than it was 3 weeks ago... any predictions on any other potential value jumps?

Pierre Garcon's got a huge chance this week with Revis on Wayne. And if he does well, the announcers will mention he is from Haiti, which will bring more attention to him. If he does nothing the next two games, more people will favor Gonzo taking that slot.The Addai/Brown/Hart struggle also continues. None of those guys did much vs. Baltimore. I could see Hart gaining a lot of value if he has some good plays. He had one good reception vs. Baltimore then they stuck with him a little. Keller has been doing great. Shhh.

I'd like to throw Reggie Wayne as a guy who has a lot to gain this week. He did better than any other WR this season against Revis and that was in essentially only 1 half. Manning missed him by about 6 inches on a potential TD pass and overthrew him by about 2 feet on a deep sideline pass that may have also been a TD. In my opinion, Wayne has always been a very underrated WR because he doesn't have great size or speed, but faring well against Revis where so many others have failed could really get Wayne the attention he deserves.Donald Brown needs to show something, all we've really learned about him this year is that he isn't much of a pass blocker(to put it nicely) which he needs to become to even pose a real threat to Addai in that offense.Using the Garcon theory above, Percy Harvin could be interesting this week. Sidney Rice will likely be matched up with Jabari Greer(who Football Outsiders says was the 2nd best CB in the NFL this year, behind only Revis) however, the Saints secondary depth is lacking and will either have Randall Gay, who's been a FA bust for NO, or rookie Malcolm Jenkins covering Harvin. Last but not least, I think the player with the most value to potentially be gained this weekend is Braylon Edwards. I can't see the Jets winning unless he makes a few big plays, which he hasn't done much of since 2007. If he can do it in such a big game I think it will go a long way to restore people's confidence in him. Of course, at this point, he might need to have a big game just to keep his job.

 

[PranksterJD]

Using the Garcon theory above, Percy Harvin could be interesting this week. Sidney Rice will likely be matched up with Jabari Greer(who Football Outsiders says was the 2nd best CB in the NFL this year, behind only Revis) however, the Saints secondary depth is lacking and will either have Randall Gay, who's been a FA bust for NO, or rookie Malcolm Jenkins covering Harvin.

Did I miss Tracy Porter getting hurt again?

 

[travdogg]

Using the Garcon theory above, Percy Harvin could be interesting this week. Sidney Rice will likely be matched up with Jabari Greer(who Football Outsiders says was the 2nd best CB in the NFL this year, behind only Revis) however, the Saints secondary depth is lacking and will either have Randall Gay, who's been a FA bust for NO, or rookie Malcolm Jenkins covering Harvin.

Did I miss Tracy Porter getting hurt again?

Wouldn't he be on Berrian?

 

[PranksterJD]

Using the Garcon theory above, Percy Harvin could be interesting this week. Sidney Rice will likely be matched up with Jabari Greer(who Football Outsiders says was the 2nd best CB in the NFL this year, behind only Revis) however, the Saints secondary depth is lacking and will either have Randall Gay, who's been a FA bust for NO, or rookie Malcolm Jenkins covering Harvin.

Did I miss Tracy Porter getting hurt again?

Wouldn't he be on Berrian?

Bah. Totally forgot about that guy.

 

[munchkin]

Using the Garcon theory above, Percy Harvin could be interesting this week. Sidney Rice will likely be matched up with Jabari Greer(who Football Outsiders says was the 2nd best CB in the NFL this year, behind only Revis) however, the Saints secondary depth is lacking and will either have Randall Gay, who's been a FA bust for NO, or rookie Malcolm Jenkins covering Harvin.

Did I miss Tracy Porter getting hurt again?

Wouldn't he be on Berrian?

Bah. Totally forgot about that guy.

You probably forgot about him because he hasn't done much. Gay may be better on Berrian.

 

[saintfool]

You probably forgot about him because he hasn't done much. Gay may be better on Berrian.

this is my thinking as well. berrian is a downfield threat only, right? harvin gets moved around and runs different routes. porter vs harvin would be a fun matchup. porter is pretty fearless too.

 

[dmac37]

What WR do you guys think has the most value in PPR:

S. Smith Car- elite talent and has already produced with sub par QB play, a lot of up and down play mostly due to QB's

Boldin- also elite talent and would have to think he gets traded, without knowing where he goes I would think his value is down due to injury concerns and unknown destination

Bowe- seemed like a top young WR going into this year, is he more like the 2009 Bowe or still a great young WR with plenty of upside

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

What WR do you guys think has the most value in PPR:

S. Smith Car- elite talent and has already produced with sub par QB play, a lot of up and down play mostly due to QB's

Boldin- also elite talent and would have to think he gets traded, without knowing where he goes I would think his value is down due to injury concerns and unknown destination

Bowe- seemed like a top young WR going into this year, is he more like the 2009 Bowe or still a great young WR with plenty of upside

To me that is Steve Smith easy. On talent alone, he blows the other two out of the water. As you say he has always produced with crap at QB, if he even gets any improvement at the QB position his value will jump big time.

 

[todisco1]

What WR do you guys think has the most value in PPR:

S. Smith Car- elite talent and has already produced with sub par QB play, a lot of up and down play mostly due to QB's

Boldin- also elite talent and would have to think he gets traded, without knowing where he goes I would think his value is down due to injury concerns and unknown destination

Bowe- seemed like a top young WR going into this year, is he more like the 2009 Bowe or still a great young WR with plenty of upside

To me that is Steve Smith easy. On talent alone, he blows the other two out of the water. As you say he has always produced with crap at QB, if he even gets any improvement at the QB position his value will jump big time.

He hasn't *always* produced, he's gone through some dry spells. Last season when Delhomme was starting there was a period when he was almost unstartable.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

What WR do you guys think has the most value in PPR:

S. Smith Car- elite talent and has already produced with sub par QB play, a lot of up and down play mostly due to QB's

Boldin- also elite talent and would have to think he gets traded, without knowing where he goes I would think his value is down due to injury concerns and unknown destination

Bowe- seemed like a top young WR going into this year, is he more like the 2009 Bowe or still a great young WR with plenty of upside

To me that is Steve Smith easy. On talent alone, he blows the other two out of the water. As you say he has always produced with crap at QB, if he even gets any improvement at the QB position his value will jump big time.

He hasn't *always* produced, he's gone through some dry spells. Last season when Delhomme was starting there was a period when he was almost unstartable.

True, but that is about a half a season out of his last 6 healthy years when he hasn't been very good.

 

[werdnoynek]

looking at what S.Smith did when Moore was starting the end of the season, he looked like the Stevie of the past...

if the panthers are wise and Moore is the guy coming out of the gates this year, he'll be a tier 1-2 WR in 2010 imo.

 

[munchkin]

What WR do you guys think has the most value in PPR:

S. Smith Car- elite talent and has already produced with sub par QB play, a lot of up and down play mostly due to QB's

Boldin- also elite talent and would have to think he gets traded, without knowing where he goes I would think his value is down due to injury concerns and unknown destination

Bowe- seemed like a top young WR going into this year, is he more like the 2009 Bowe or still a great young WR with plenty of upside

To me that is Steve Smith easy. On talent alone, he blows the other two out of the water. As you say he has always produced with crap at QB, if he even gets any improvement at the QB position his value will jump big time.

He hasn't *always* produced, he's gone through some dry spells. Last season when Delhomme was starting there was a period when he was almost unstartable.

True, but that is about a half a season out of his last 6 healthy years when he hasn't been very good.

He has always been good; just not productive given the QB situation. They really need another threat at receiver (TE or WR) to attract the attention of the opposing team's DB's. Moore showed something late in the season while Jake really was horrible.

 

[Dave Larkin]

looking at what S.Smith did when Moore was starting the end of the season, he looked like the Stevie of the past... if the panthers are wise and Moore is the guy coming out of the gates this year, he'll be a tier 1-2 WR in 2010 imo.

Agreed. As a Panthers fan, I can tell you that our passing game was simply better with Moore under center. OC Jeff Davidson found ways to get Smitty the ball too. I expect we'll add a WR or two in the offseason to give Moore more weapons. If Moore isn't the starter or at least isn't given a fair shot to be the starter, Panthers fans will not be pleased.Keep the faith with Smitty. It'll pay off, trust me.

 

[PranksterJD]

Reggie back on top of Vincent?

Short lived stay at the 4 spot. Production related or the recent mini-knucklehead stuff?

and curious... the blog being permanently filtered out for Rotoworld?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Reggie back on top of Vincent?

Short lived stay at the 4 spot. Production related or the recent mini-knucklehead stuff?

and curious... the blog being permanently filtered out for Rotoworld?

Re: Reggie vs. V-Jax. I think it depends what kind of league you're in. Reggie definitely gets a consistency edge regardless whereas V-Jax gets the youth edge. In PPR, I'd be tempted to stick with Reggie's consistency. In standard, I'd probably go with V-Jax's youth and TDs. Re: Blog. No. I've obviously slowed down on the blog compared to the past 2 years, but that's more a function of finding spare time. The recent rankings were just something I promised Rotoworld I'd do once the season was over.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What WR do you guys think has the most value in PPR:

S. Smith Car- elite talent and has already produced with sub par QB play, a lot of up and down play mostly due to QB's

Boldin- also elite talent and would have to think he gets traded, without knowing where he goes I would think his value is down due to injury concerns and unknown destination

Bowe- seemed like a top young WR going into this year, is he more like the 2009 Bowe or still a great young WR with plenty of upside

To me that is Steve Smith easy. On talent alone, he blows the other two out of the water. As you say he has always produced with crap at QB, if he even gets any improvement at the QB position his value will jump big time.

He hasn't *always* produced, he's gone through some dry spells. Last season when Delhomme was starting there was a period when he was almost unstartable.

Does "last year" = 2008? Or 2009?If it's 2008, your statement is wrong. Smith was the only WR to average 100 yards a game. He was dominant.

If it's 2009, it falls under the "crap at QB" umbrella because Delhomme was the definition of "crap at QB" all season.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

He was obviously over the top in his presentation but his point has some validity.

What's the validity?

Maybe I phrased that incorrectly. His conclusion may be valid, not necessarily his point. Sidney Rice may indeed be a much better player than Miles Austin. Rice was a dominant college player who was drafted early in the second round when he was only 20. He had a very good rookie season and looked primed for a breakout in his second year. Unfortunately, he suffered through injury problems and was reduced to basically a jump ball end zone threat. In his third year he looked like a stud. He has all the tools you would want in an NFL (and FF) WR. He is big, fast, strong, can jump out of the gym, and has great hands. That is the upside.



Miles Austin was an undrafted free agent who did nothing for 3.25 years and then exploded out of no where. You have to at least allow for the possibility he has a bit of Drew Bennett in him. That is the downside.

It could be argued that you will get a lot more attention for your argument that Rice >>>>>>> Austin by prorating Austin's last game out to 16 weeks and saying he will have 500 yards and 0 TDs. Now, I don't necessarily buy that argument, I prefer well reasoned analysis (one of the reasons I come to this thread and read your blog).

It's true he didn't do much in games, but Cowboys fans have been salivating over Miles' athletic ability since he signed with the team. The last three summers he has gotten a lot of praise in camp, he's just always been inconsistent. I still think he struggles to catch the ball at times, he dropped quite a few easy passes this year, and has room to improve. I'm not saying Miles is better than Rice, I honestly don't know if I could rank one above the other, but Austin did not come out of nowhere.

I could care less where Austin came from. I'm not making this judgment after one or two fluke performances or a hot stretch. I'm making it based on his obvious talent after watching him play for the past three months. He's a monster -- possession WR with ideal size, elite of the elite in the open field, and a top red-zone target. Throw in a great offense with an outstanding QB, and he's set up for long-term success.

Miles Austin is the truth.