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I'm with you on this. I own Foster. My plan is to start him as my RB#2 this year. I think he'll do well, and I plan on trading him near the end of the year for a better dynasty prospect. I don't think that Foster owners should take anything for granted even if Foster has a great year.
It's one of the hardest parts of dynasty, and one that I have not figured out yet. For every Miles Austin, you have several Dwayne Jarrets. When do you cut bait on a guy like Schilens (etc), who are always thiiiis close to showing us something? What if you need to free up two roster spots, and the drop candidates are between Schilens, Brian Robiskie (who we're hearing nice things about), and Andre Roberts (someone who had some nice draft buzz). I know none of them are world beaters, but that type of decision can be maddening. Who here has held onto Jacoby Jones for three seasons? I know the previously mentioned Austin bounced around a *lot* in almost every league I'm in from 2008 until he broke out last year. It's almost like the FF version of hot potato - who's finally holding him when the music stops?Those end of roster "have shown flashes" guys are so tough. I try to trade a few for second round picks, etc, but at this point, everyone knows that trick, and knows they'll be on the ww shortly.
I'm saying this as a Broncos fan who followed the team closely. Shanahan and Kubiak had a reputation for always bringing in fresh RBs even when the pundits thought they were set at the position. You only know the names of the guys who got playing time, but Denver also took Detron Smith (3rd rounder in '96), L.T. Levine (7th rounder in '96), Curtis Alexander (4th rounder in '98), Chris Howard (5th rounder in '98), Ahmad Galloway (7th rounder in 2003), or Brandon Miree (7th rounder in 2004). And what about Clinton Portis? Denver used a 2nd rounder on him when they already had not one, not two, but THREE different 1,000 yard rushers on their roster- drafting for depth that most certainly was not. From 1995 to 2005, Denver used 12 draft picks on RBs. Yes, a lot of those picks were late picks, but the point is that Denver was constantly bringing in fresh faces. Denver was also the team that introduced the world to the likes of Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, and Mike Bell.In Denver, Kubiak earned a reputation as one of the few coaches who ran a true meritocracy- meaning RB playing time was given out solely on the basis of merit and not on the basis of past performance, pedigree, or contract. When you're a late round pick trying to make a name for yourself, that tendency works in your favor. When you're an established starter, it works against you. I'm simply saying that I think that Arian Foster is practically guaranteed to see more challenges to his supremacy than the average NFL starting RB. He might weather the challenges and be a fantasy stud for the next 4+ years. I'm just saying the challenges will certainly be coming.
Beyond 2010?
Yes. And you have no credibility whatsoever on the Texans backfield.Do you still have a broken down kick returner as the starter here?Beyond 2010?
Hmmm...if some of the others were too young, are these too old?Tim BrownChris CarterMichael IrvinEDIT: oops, I see Carter is already out of your range...thus the other two probably are as well.
No, im just saying Foster wont be starting for the Texans for much longer than that broken down kick returner did, and it wont be because he suffered an injury either.Im not sure if this is the best time to do it, but Foster owners should consider trading him sometime in the near future. Foster is an average talent who won the job because of injuries. If Tate and Slaton were both 100%, would anyone still think Foster was a top 20 dynasty back? He may have a good 2010, but his long term outlook is not good.Yes. And you have no credibility whatsoever on the Texans backfield.Do you still have a broken down kick returner as the starter here?Beyond 2010?
Foster was very impressive in the last 2 games of 2009. That was a small body of work and it was expected that the Texans would draft another RB. But the bottom line is Foster has continued where he left off last year and that, not injuries, is why he is starting.
Well, anything is potentially possible. All that I said was that this situation reminded me of the one in Green Bay. How it will turn out, obviously none of us knows. All NFL players face challengers every year, so I don't think that point is exactly groundbreaking.
That is both unusual...and VERY significant. If that's a 12 team roster...then it changes the "dynasty" dynamic enough to radically alter strategy. Late rookie 1sts on down are almost worthless since those guys are rarely first year contributors. In leagues like that, high risk, high reward players are the only (young, developing player) moves worth considering.
Curious how other leagues would add players to teams through a draft then. I typically carry two defenses for most of the season and play matchups. I'll cut both of them and my kicker to get to 21. Then I need to cut 3 real players. Last season those players were Lex Hilliard, Larry Johnson and Tony Scheffler. All those players get added to the rookie/FA draft the next year. Every year some decent players get cut and put back into the draft pool. Its not that bad though as you are allowed to keep a core of 18 players. As for any dramatic alteration to dynasty strategy, I just don't see it. I typically keep my first three picks in the draft for a couple of seasons. By that point most will have shown what they are capable of becoming. Its the guys that miss a year due to injury and don't break out until year 3/4 that are difficult.
I temporarily increase the roster size limit to equal 22 (our roster size) + # of draft picks held by the team with the most picks. Then we have a 1 week cutdown period to get back to 22. Then I change the roster size limit back to 22.
I don't know, I think a lot of teams do this. Tennessee drafted White, Henry, and CJ3 in 3 consecutive years, and they drafted Ringer in '08 with all 3 still on their roster. Then when they still had CJ3 and Ringer this offseason, they brought in S. Johnson, Blount, Pearman and Gado. The Giants had Jacobs, Bradshaw and Ware, and still drafted A. Brown in '08 and signed Gartrell Johnson this offseason. Jacksonville had MJD but they still drafted Chauncey Washington, Jennings, and Karim the last 3 years. Carolina had Williams and Stewart, but drafted Goodson in '08. The Jets had Greene and LT, but still used 1 of their 4 draft picks on McKnight this year. Etc.Even teams with very good RBs continue to stockpile them for a number of reasons. The RB position is incredibly demanding physically, these guys get banged up all the time so they always want to have depth. Many of these guys are added just for that and to help out on special teams. I'm not saying you do this, but a lot of people hear Shanny or Kubiak's name and the first thing they associate it with is a RBBC or revolving door at RB. It really hasn't been that way when they've had a good RB and they've stayed healthy.
Tim Brown, Andre Rison, Eric Moulds, Antonio Freeman, Rob Moore, Keyshawn Johnson, Michael Westbrook, Carl Pickens, Yancey Thigpen, Andre Reed, L.Coles, David Boston, Herman Moore, Keenan McCardell, and you have to include Cris Carter
He said "top performing" - there's a whole lot of "WR2/posession WRs" in that list. Guys like Boston, Rob Moore and Thigpen had 1 or 2 (at the most) good seasons out of 9 or 10 - none of them ever even hit double digit TDs. Boston and Thigpen barely broke 300 receptions in theie careers. Some of those guys weren't even the best WRs on their respective team at the time.
Maybe true as far as not all were "top performing" esp based on today's standards....Also, a bunch of mediocre seasons doesn't get you in the Hall of Fame, nor on any list of my Top WRs either (i.e., Hines Ward). Ward is not an impact player. David Boston's single season pretty much single-handedly won people $$, incl me.......
I'll take the 1 or 2 monster seasons over mediocrity all day. My goal is to win championships not simply be in the hunt with mid-level producers. And Rob Moore > Hines Ward.....nobody gameplans for Ward. In a pass-happy era, Ward's numbers are simply avg, IMO. Guys like Moore played in the 90s, less passing (less volume and less formations) in this era yet his numbers easily match up with Ward on a per season basis and his best seasons far outweigh Ward's. So what if he didn't do it for a longer stretch ala Ward, again in lieu of the era comparisons, I'd put Moore well above Ward as a player, IMO.
Nice sheet. When was the last update ? I noticed Avery was really high along with a couple of other anomalies.
Still no blurb on MSW or Britt...
Given Meachem was hurt up until the last preseason game (in which he caught yet another TD pass), your criticism here seems a lot like F&L downplaying Ahmad Bradshaw in June when he's in a walking boot.Meachem has retained a lot of his value. He's still the same guy. The hypetrain may have transferred to Jacoby Jones or Mike Williams, but he's still valued and carries a midround ADP in redraft leagues (#91 in FFC PPR). Holmes has been dropped by his team for being a headcase and his long term value is no more stable than Meachem. If you traded Holmes for Meachem you didn't lose anything as they are neck and neck in F&L's rankings.
The changelog has a blurb on Britt - not too complimentaryStill no blurb on MSW or Britt...
Ask and you shall receive.Still no blurb on MSW or Britt...
I'd argue that it's taken pretty much a doomsday scenario for Santonio to push him down to Meachem territory- he's been traded away from his ultra-talented QB and his pass-first OC. And despite that, he's still well above Meachem (27th for Holmes, 31st for Meachem in the most recent rankings from F&L). Which sort of illustrates the point I was making- even in the worst case scenario, the Steady Eddie Holmes holds more value than the Flash in the Pan Meachem, who is no longer the flavor of the month. Most of the Meachem supporters have fallen silent in recent months. Meachem's head coach is talking about giving an expanded role in the passing game to pretty much everyone EXCEPT Meachem. Meachem still might wind up turning into a top-10 dynasty WR at some point, I'm just pointing out how these hot commodities ebb and flow in value.
This google doc is more up to date: https://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1r...P9RE&pli=1#
Sweet!
Really enjoying your critiques. The web designer in me needs to point out that grey text on a black background is really hard to read, though.
When was Meachum a hot commodity? He was a mid round rookie pick, but after a dissapointing rookie year, i thought he was pretty much written off. Well, at least not considered a future top 25 WR. I dont think he ever had value along the lines of Hakemm Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, etc. ETA, nice rankings by the way, for as much as you and i disagree, our dynasty rankings are pretty similar.Ask and you shall receive.Still no blurb on MSW or Britt...I'd argue that it's taken pretty much a doomsday scenario for Santonio to push him down to Meachem territory- he's been traded away from his ultra-talented QB and his pass-first OC. And despite that, he's still well above Meachem (27th for Holmes, 31st for Meachem in the most recent rankings from F&L). Which sort of illustrates the point I was making- even in the worst case scenario, the Steady Eddie Holmes holds more value than the Flash in the Pan Meachem, who is no longer the flavor of the month. Most of the Meachem supporters have fallen silent in recent months. Meachem's head coach is talking about giving an expanded role in the passing game to pretty much everyone EXCEPT Meachem. Meachem still might wind up turning into a top-10 dynasty WR at some point, I'm just pointing out how these hot commodities ebb and flow in value.
Ask and you shall receive.Still no blurb on MSW or Britt...
I'll pass it along to our web guy. Isn't it supposed to cut down on eye strain?
Read some of the stuff on this page, as well as some of the pages immediately before and immediately after. There was a ton of Meachem discussion around these parts late last season. One guy on that page said that he's a Colston fan, but Meachem was the best receiver on the entire team. Several posters were saying they'd trade Santonio Holmes for Robert Meachem in a heartbeat. Several others suggested they'd trade Hakeem Nicks for Robert Meachem. Another poster suggested Meachem was more likely to turn into the next Reggie Wayne than the next Ashley Lelie. Lots of people were taking exception to his ranking (which was #32 at the time that page was posted), which means lots of people did think he should be ranked in the top 25 going forward.
By the way, I'm obviously not doing this full-time, so I have to pick and choose what content gets updated and what content gets explained in detail, etc. If you guys ever have anything like this where you want to see more justification about a specific player, or you want to hear the reasoning behind a certain ranking or a comparison of two closely-ranked players, just post here, or on the DR.net boards, or hit me up via twitter, or shoot me an email, or a private message on these boards, or a private message on the DR.net boards. I'm trying to prioritize so I'm giving people what they want the most, and if I'm falling short on that, let me know and I'll fix it.Ask and you shall receive.Still no blurb on MSW or Britt...
Agree on Fitz, i just moved him down to 3 on my rankings. He is still young though, and one of the most talented WR's in the league, so things should work themselves out. He is better off with Anderson than Leinart, so there is reason for optomism, although Andre Johnson should be #1 on everyones WR list, he is far and away the #1 WR in any kind of league. AJ is almost guaranteed 100 receptions and 1500 yards. He hasnt been very good in the TD department, but even without, he is still the easy #1 WR. Thats the best part about AJ, even though he is the #1 WR, he still has a ton of upside because he could realisticly score 12-15 TD's.
Meachem was a late 1st rookie pick when he came out. He was taken ahead of Dwayne Bowe in the rookie drafts I did. Jarrett and Gonzalez also came out that year (Gonzalez often going before Meachem), competing for the #2 rookie WR spot behind Calvin. I think a lot of people thought his upside was and is top 25 (at least).He was dropped in several leagues in 2007 since he was a healthy scratch the whole year. But he had a huge preseason in 2008, which led to some hype at that point. At least one of my leagues he was a late 1st in both 2007 and 2008.
There are certain color combinations that cut down on eye strain, for sure. But I prefer a bit more contrast between background and type.
For me, it boils down to this: Larry Fitzgerald is 27 years old, and I'm absolutely positively convinced that he's a first ballot HoFer. If you were faced with the opportunity to own a first-ballot HoFer at age 27, what would you give up? Randy Moss found himself in a bad situation at age 28, but since then he's still put up a whopping 344 VBD. To compare, Andre Johnson has 275 VBD for his entire career. I just think Fitzgerald is on another level entirely, I think he's going to be getting an unbelievable number of targets (like, I could see him blowing way past 100 receptions), and I don't think anyone can cover him. His QB situation is a question mark, but plenty of receivers have put up insane numbers with terrible QBs (exhibit A: Smiff. Exhibit B: Braylon Edwards, who put up 225 fantasy points with Fitzgerald's current QB). Is Derrick Anderson the answer? Probably not, but Hall or Skelton might be, and if they are the answer, they'll be showing it as early as next season. Or maybe the answer is to go out and land a veteran journeyman.At the end of the day, Larry Fitzgerald is too good for me to play the "Andre Johnson's in a stable situation" game. Fitz is better, he's younger, and his QB situation is in my opinion the single most overblown storyline of the entire offseason. Fitz is the only guy other than Randy Moss who is a proven double-digit TD threat. During the 2008 playoffs showed he's capable of playing at a higher level than I have ever seen any WR ever play at in all of my years of watching football- higher than Randy, higher than Jerry. He might be the best player in the NFL today, regardless of position. Brandon Marshall could go for 190/3000/30 this year and Larry Fitzgerald would still have more catches, more yards, and more TDs before his 27th birthday than Marshall would. He's Calvin Johnson, except replace "one awesome season" with "the second biggest track record of success of any 27 year old WR in NFL history behind only Randy Moss". The fact that he's the slightest bit obtainable right now seems crazy to me. Again... 27 year old future first ballot HoFer. A young Randy Moss not yet at his peak. Get him.Maybe a year or two from now I look silly for refusing to drop Fitzgerald from the #1 position, but again, at the end of the day, I'm never going to back down from betting on a Hall of Famer in his prime. If Calvin Johnson can be #3 in a murky-as-heck situation based on the strength of 1 awesome season, then Fitzgerald can be #1 in a murky-as-heck situation based on the strength of four top-5 finishes by age 27.When I see his production on the field suffering with my own two eyes, then I'll believe it and drop him from his perch. Until then, he remains at #1 until someone gives me a darn good reason why they should pass him. And Andre is great, but for starters, he needs to score more than 9 TDs in a season.Edit: in case anyone couldn't tell, I feel very strongly about this. I think Andre is a great talent, but I think Fitzgerald is head and shoulders above everyone else in the league.
I'm no SSOG, but I'll give this a shot:Obviously, shaky QB play hurts Fitz's value. AZ will have a new QB in 2011 barring some kind of miraculous play by Anderson. But the most likely scenario in AZ would be the acquisition of either a high priced free agent QB or a strong armed rookie in the draft. Either way, AZ knows that they have the best WR in the league. While there's no certainty that the QB situation will be 100% guaranteed fixed, there's no doubt that AZ will be choosing a QB that can get the ball to Fitz early and often. If I started up a new dynasty league, I'd have Fitz ranked at #1 with no doubt in my mind.
He's looked superb all training camp & preseason. He's got everything Leinart doesn't show -- strong arm, quick release, stepping up in the pocket consistently. I think even the local announcers understate how good he's looked. (Saying he locked down a roster spot 2nite -- I think he's been a shoe in for a roster spot for awhile now).I make the QB decisions that puts Max Hall in the best position for the future. (Whether that be keep Leinart for this year before cutting loose or cutting Matt & putting complete faith in Max Hall as the backup this year). Cards struck gold on a couple UDFA's this year IMO.
That definitely sounds doable. I'll talk to the site manager about making it happen. In the meantime... who loves ya, baby?SSOG...love your rankings web site. GREAT stuff.
One question/request...any chance you could put a single-page cheatsheet on your web site somewhere?
I love the write-ups on *why* you ranked each player where you did but, after reading all that, it would
be great to have a handy single-page cheatsheet for my start up draft this coming Wednesday [wink wink]
Nice job, i have a couple of questions.That definitely sounds doable. I'll talk to the site manager about making it happen. In the meantime... who loves ya, baby?SSOG...love your rankings web site. GREAT stuff.
One question/request...any chance you could put a single-page cheatsheet on your web site somewhere?
I love the write-ups on *why* you ranked each player where you did but, after reading all that, it would
be great to have a handy single-page cheatsheet for my start up draft this coming Wednesday [wink wink]
Just glad to have another good rankings site to check out. Love the work and insight you give. Thanks.By the way, I'm obviously not doing this full-time, so I have to pick and choose what content gets updated and what content gets explained in detail, etc. If you guys ever have anything like this where you want to see more justification about a specific player, or you want to hear the reasoning behind a certain ranking or a comparison of two closely-ranked players, just post here, or on the DR.net boards, or hit me up via twitter, or shoot me an email, or a private message on these boards, or a private message on the DR.net boards. I'm trying to prioritize so I'm giving people what they want the most, and if I'm falling short on that, let me know and I'll fix it.Ask and you shall receive.Still no blurb on MSW or Britt...
That definitely sounds doable. I'll talk to the site manager about making it happen. In the meantime... who loves ya, baby?SSOG...love your rankings web site. GREAT stuff.
One question/request...any chance you could put a single-page cheatsheet on your web site somewhere?
I love the write-ups on *why* you ranked each player where you did but, after reading all that, it would
be great to have a handy single-page cheatsheet for my start up draft this coming Wednesday [wink wink]
Huge fan.
I'm a guy who dumped Wes Welker before his breakout but still has Adrian Arrington on his team. I identify talent alright but have a real hard time cutting the fat.
