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Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

sorta an AC question BUT i've already made my decision on what to do so not looking for advice so i hope it is acceptable discussion because i thought it'd be interesting to compare these twowas offered Best for Felix in dynasty (plus a DEF downgrade but that didnt factor in to my decision)VERY interesting to try and figure out the better longterm projections 'twixt these two and was wondering the thoughts of those from my favorite thread
If it's PPR....take Best and run with it.Best is younger....produced more in college....has shown more in the NFL...has much better hands...more athletic.The only thing Felix has on Best is the team around him.
 
The argument has gone way beyond the point that I can jump in, but just wanted to share a small anecdote.

I've had a tremendous QB situation in a 12-teamer for years and it has covered up weaknesses in other areas (particularly RB). From 2005 to late 2007 I had Brady and Roethlisberger. Late in 2007 I traded Brady (yes, during his 50 TD season) and had Rodgers thrown in on the deal. Roeth had been putting up top 5 numbers that year, so I was able to start him and not miss much (in fact, I won the championship). Then from 2008 to now, I've been starting Rodgers and spot playing Roeth, as I did vs. Cleveland last week.

I've spent a lot of time over the years trying to move Roeth to improve elsewhere, but people won't pay adequate value for him. So I've been "stuck" with two top 5-7 QBs every year. Poor me, as those guaranteed 20+ points per week have been a huge part of 5 straight playoff appearances and 2 championships.

 
sorta an AC question BUT i've already made my decision on what to do so not looking for advice so i hope it is acceptable discussion because i thought it'd be interesting to compare these twowas offered Best for Felix in dynasty (plus a DEF downgrade but that didnt factor in to my decision)VERY interesting to try and figure out the better longterm projections 'twixt these two and was wondering the thoughts of those from my favorite thread
If it's PPR....take Best and run with it.Best is younger....produced more in college....has shown more in the NFL...has much better hands...more athletic.The only thing Felix has on Best is the team around him.
Sorry to be so blunt, but you are simply wrong. What has Best Proven that Felix hasn't? The ability to have a monster game, or a poor game salvaged by two TDs? Felix has had big games, and has had them in the playoffs. The only reason Best has shown more, is becuase he gotten more carries, and targets. Best produced more in college becuase he didn't play next to Darren McFadden, a Heisman candidate. Felix was a monster in college too and had an equal YPC, IIRC. And, you know, he played in the SEC. Hands? Maybe. But Felix has good hands too.More athletic? What do you base this on? Best is faster , but Felix is plenty fast, plenty quick, and has a much bigger frame. Best is a better althete only if DeSeason Jackson is a better athlete than Andre Johnson.Felix has more potential to be a 3 down, do all back. In PPR, I would have to think about it. Standard scoring, it is Felix for me, thanks.
 
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sorta an AC question BUT i've already made my decision on what to do so not looking for advice so i hope it is acceptable discussion because i thought it'd be interesting to compare these twowas offered Best for Felix in dynasty (plus a DEF downgrade but that didnt factor in to my decision)VERY interesting to try and figure out the better longterm projections 'twixt these two and was wondering the thoughts of those from my favorite thread
If it's PPR....take Best and run with it.Best is younger....produced more in college....has shown more in the NFL...has much better hands...more athletic.The only thing Felix has on Best is the team around him.
Sorry to be so blunt, but you are simply wrong. What has Best Proven that Felix hasn't? The ability to have a monster game, or a poor game salvaged by two TDs? Felix has had big games, and has had them in the playoffs. The only reason Best has shown more, is becuase he gotten more carries, and targets. Best produced more in college becuase he didn't play next to Darren McFadden, a Heisman candidate. Felix was a monster in college too and had an equal YPC, IIRC. And, you know, he played in the SEC. Hands? Maybe. But Felix has good hands too.More athletic? What do you base this on? Best is faster , but Felix is plenty fast, plenty quick, and has a much bigger frame. Best is a better althete only if DeSeason Jackson is a better athlete than Andre Johnson.Felix has more potential to be a 3 down, do all back. In PPR, I would have to think about it. Standard scoring, it is Felix for me, thanks.
There's nothing to gain by arguing Felix vs. Best here IMO. They are both elite talents in great situations with questionable injury histories. Preference is entirely personal and based on gut.
 
i guess the argument would be is the difference in body style enough to give Felix the edge longterm?

Felix just looks like he COULD perhaps withstand the punishment a little better (although he has quite proven that that is not the case so far)

 
ok, i've lurked in this thread for years and only offered a few tidbits so time for me to give back...

INTERVIEW WITH A FORMER MIZZOU ASSISTANT COACH (this happened five minutes ago and i also posted this in Danario's individual thread)

His eyes lit up when I just mentioned the fella's name that I wanted to discuss. He used terms "freak" and "beast" intermingled with "nicest young man" and "game film junkie" and "loved playing football."

I asked about what he meant by "freak" and he said the size/speed ratio. He also mentioned that the football team would have dunk contests in the offseason and that Danario threw one off the backboard and did a windmill dunk and threw it home. (I coach basketball) so my next question was asking why that was so impressive to him and he said because he threw it off the BACK of the backboard...jumped from behind the backboard caught it and windmilled from there LOL!

He said he was the nicest young man on the team, great family, great work ethic and Danario would text him on Sundays to ask if he could come in with him and watch gamefilm.

Of course I asked the question of who was better Maclin or Danario? No hesitation he said Danario

He mentioned that they both sorta traded out knee injuriesback and forth, the difference is that Maclin was back in record time but Danario's cadaver ligament "didn't take" and thus caused complications in recovery

He said that the entire route tree was in play for Danario and that Pinkel was extremely high on all aspects of his game

i've seen Cecil and a couple posters say that is his weakness

and yet pretty sure he said that there "wasn't any part of the route tree that was off limits"

i'm gonna ask him if that he meant the Mizzou spread route tree or a pro-set NFL route tree

if you guys want me to ask specific questions post em here

 
I just don't get this logic: "He hasn't proven he's NOT better than Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel, so I'll value him as though he IS."

If you guys want to say that you watched him in college and you like him, I can see your argument. If you want to use his 3rd string pre-season reps, I will try to see your argument. But the above logic, I just don't get.

Jonathan Dwyer hasn't proven that he's not better than Chris Johnson. How do you value him?
Let's say I show up at your door. In one hand, I have a hot, steaming pile of dog feces. In the other hand, I have a plastic easter egg that may or may not contain a hot steaming pile of dog feces. Which would you rather have. I mean, whatever's in the easter egg hasn't proven that it's better than dog feces, so why should you value it as if it was?Imagine I offered you your choice between two QBs. Player A is going to finish every single season as QB24. Player B has a 95% chance of finishing every single season as QB28, and a 5% chance of finishing every single season as QB6. Which would you rather have? I'd rather have Player B. There's a 100% chance that Player A is garbage, but there's only a 95% chance that Player B is garbage; therefore, Player B is superior.

Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel are, in my opinion, garbage. You can't start them, because if you start them you're getting destroyed by every team in the league. They have no upside above what they are today, and what they are today is garbage. They're getting outperformed by guys that could be had for a stick of gum (Matt Hasselbeck) or even less (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill). Garbage with a capital G-A-R.

That's why your Chris Johnson analogy is fatally flawed. Chris Johnson is not garbage. If you wanted to make the comparison at RB, it'd be Danny Woodhead vs. Cadillac Williams- and yeah, you bet your butt that I'd rather have Danny Woodhead. Caddy is a guy with no startability in the present and no upside for the future. He's garbage. I'd rather own a guy with even the faintest glimmer of hope, instead.

Sorry. Cut.

And Hall did not outplay him. Hall never got 2nd string reps. Those went to Anderson, then Leinart. Anderson beat out Leinart. Leinart was a locker room issue. That is why he was cut. Not becuase the coaches planned to play Max Hall, or even felt Hall was the better player.

Again. When the guy ahead of you plays awful, so they put you in, you didn't beat anybody out. Max Hall hasn't beaten anybody out. He has played one game, did not look good, and isn't even on film yet. He is in for a world of hurt; he is in over his head.

The kid couldn't handle TCU speed. There is no way he can handle NFL speed.
I'm going to need a :goodposting: on the bolded. Especially because it goes against every single thing I have read on the situation (and I've read a lot on the situation). To me, it looks like speculation being passed off rather definitively as fact.
Second, I have watched Hall play and no, he does not have a higher cieling. It is much lower.
Ummm... how so? When last I checked, Max Hall was a rookie from BYU. He's got a ton of room to grow. We have no idea how he's going to take to actual NFL-caliber coaching. Even if he was terrible at BYU... you really think the coaching staff at BYU was able to get the most possible out of him? You think the BYU strength and conditioning program maxed out his physical potential?Meanwhile, Cassel and Palmer have been in the league for years. They're at the peak of their development curve- it's all downhill from here.

Hey, if you think there is any chance that Hall is elite, good luck. I feel strongly that he is not, and never will be. Under the impression that I did, I understand your logic, but would not follow your model.

All is not on the wires in any of my dynasty leagues. But he was before he got the starting gig. I value Hall no more than Kafka or LeFevour. He is not as talented as they are, so your are right: they are in different classes. And the fact that he is starting means nothing, because I don't project that to continue, and have no use for low(est)-end QB stats for 10 games.
I think it's unlikely that Hall ever becomes elite... but if he doesn't, I'll cut him and get the next Max Hall, and after that I'll get the next one, and after that the next one. One of these days, one of those Max Halls will turn into a Tom Brady (6th rounder), Kurt Warner (former XFLer), or Tony Romo (UFA). If have a much, much, much higher chance of hitting paydirt by constantly cycling through Max Halls than I do by holding on to a guy like Carson Palmer for 6 more years.
One problem with the "long term QB2s are worthless" theory is Kyle Orton. Orton was exactly the type of guy who could be acquired for pennies if you needed someone short term. Until he wasn't. Highest ranking was QB16 until this year. I don't know if Cassel can be that guy for KC. But he has at least the same shot as Max Hall. I know it is possible because he was the #8 scoring QB his one year starting in NE.
I don't think that Orton is a problem with the theory. The problem is that Orton never should have been considered a guy who was at his ceiling in the first place. He'd improved in every important statistic (comp%, ypa, TD%, Int%, QBRating) for 4 straight years. He'd actually looked very good in 2008 before injury hampered him. Denver had its choice of several young QBs and specifically dealt with the Bears because they wanted Orton. Personally, I just got blinded by how terrible he was as a rookie, and then out of laziness I kept using him as a punchline rather than objectively re-evaluating.There's nothing wrong with the "lottery tickets are better than guaranteed losers" philosophy, but as in all things, you have to be able to successfully identify who are the lottery tickets and who are the guaranteed losers. And if someone wants to argue that I'm placing Palmer or Cassel in the "guaranteed losers" bucket prematurely, I'd be very happy to listen to their arguments.

 
Manning threw for over 4,000 yards and 27 TDs last season - so how exactly does he have such a low ceiling? At 29 years old, there's still a possibility that he actually improves - especially in light of having 3 very good WRs and a top nothc big play back that can catch passes. Donovan McNabb has a higher ceiling than Manning? McNabb is 34 years old and looks to be in decline. As a QB that relied on his moblity to run around and keep plays alive and then throwing deep for big plays - his "downside" is coming quickly. I'm not so sure that Chad Henne has so much of a higher ceiling than Manning either - I think they are very similiar QBs in similiar systems with similiar weapons. Sanchez, Ryan, Kold - maybe?You said a few pages back that Vick was a better passer than Manning. Whatever sabermetric measures that you thre out that "prove" that are abviously flawed to those that have watched both. But going further you argues that Vick could actually improve as a passed while completely ignoring that Manning was capable of improving as well. After all Vick is a year older than Manning. I apologize if my characterization was a little harsh (and in ho9neslty everyone has certain bias that are hard to shed), but there is some validity to it. Perception becomes reality - especially in the message board community.I think Eli's biggest flaw, is that he's not Peyton. If he was Eli Bradford, I think people would look at him differently.
Eli Manning has finished higher than 10th once in his entire career. Yes, he had a lot of yards last year, but last year was a record year for passing yards allowed across the league as a whole. A rising tide lifts all ships, as the saying goes, and Eli Manning's better aggregate stats led to the exact same result- a ranking between 10th and 13th for the 4th straight year. And again, the only reason he even ranks that high is because he plays 16 games a year- several other players have been more valuable despite scoring fewer points because they have a better PPG- including, last year, Donovan McNabb. You say McNabb looks to be in decline, but I don't see it- looks like the same guy he's been for the last 3 years (when he's consistently been more valuable than Manning).Also, I never said that Vick is a better passer than Manning. I never said anything even remotely similar to that. I said that Michael Vick's per-attempt numbers for his early career were remarkably similar to Eli Manning's per-attempt numbers for early in his career. Eli Manning managed to improve those per-attempt numbers at age 27, so why is it so hard to believe that Michael Vick did the same?I was going to put a joke here about Eli Manning's biggest problem ("it's that his receivers aren't 9 feet tall!"), but I figured a joke would make light of a serious discussion, and Eli's years removed from his "overthrow-everything-that-moves" phase, so it wouldn't be particularly relevant, anyway. So in case anyone wonders whether I have any restraint, it seems I do. A tiny, tiny bit. :D
This is why I bring up bias - look how hard you have to work to disparage what Eli has done. I could turn it around and say right now and say since his first start in the NFL (and he was brutal at first) he's 5th in TD passes, behind only his brother, Brees, Favre and Brady and ahead of Palmer, Rivers, Romo, Roethlisberger and McNabb. I know you like to look at ppg so you'll bring up that he played in every game since then while some of the others have missed a handful of games - but I'd counter that there's value in that. Having a starter that you know will play every week instead of scrambling to find a backup is value.
I'm not working hard to disparage what he's done, I'm saying what he is. This year, he's a guy hovering around 10th in total points and around 12th-15th in points per game. That's what he is every year. That's what I assumed he would be prior to this season, and that's why I haven't changed his ranking.I agree that there's value in playing every game, but that value only goes so far. To borrow a comparison I just used in another thread, right now Eli has 109 points and Vick has 95. If, however, you gave the Vick owner two games worth of Jason Campbell to cover the games Vick missed, Vick would outscore Eli 110 to 109. And that's JASON CAMPBELL- the dude is terrible. Give the Vick owner a decent QB and the comparison becomes a laugher. Vick + Hill, for instance, outscores Eli by 20+ points- and that's with Hill missing half of one of the games.
Sorry to be so blunt, but you are simply wrong. What has Best Proven that Felix hasn't? The ability to have a monster game, or a poor game salvaged by two TDs? Felix has had big games, and has had them in the playoffs. The only reason Best has shown more, is becuase he gotten more carries, and targets. Best produced more in college becuase he didn't play next to Darren McFadden, a Heisman candidate. Felix was a monster in college too and had an equal YPC, IIRC. And, you know, he played in the SEC. Hands? Maybe. But Felix has good hands too.More athletic? What do you base this on? Best is faster , but Felix is plenty fast, plenty quick, and has a much bigger frame. Best is a better althete only if DeSeason Jackson is a better athlete than Andre Johnson.Felix has more potential to be a 3 down, do all back. In PPR, I would have to think about it. Standard scoring, it is Felix for me, thanks.
Sorry to be so blunt, but you simply have no business stating so definitively whether someone is right or wrong.Fun fact time! Jahvid Best has more 17 carry games this season (2) than Felix Jones has in his entire career (0). Although, in Felix's defense, he did manage to get 16 carries once in his 3 year career, and he had two more games with 15 carries. That's in addition to the 16 carry game, of course, bringing his grand total up to 3 career games with 15 carries.Who has two thumbs and doesn't get the love for Felix Jones? This guy! :goodposting:
 
Sorry to be so blunt, but you simply have no business stating so definitively whether someone is right or wrong.Fun fact time! Jahvid Best has more 17 carry games this season (2) than Felix Jones has in his entire career (0). Although, in Felix's defense, he did manage to get 16 carries once in his 3 year career, and he had two more games with 15 carries. That's in addition to the 16 carry game, of course, bringing his grand total up to 3 career games with 15 carries.Who has two thumbs and doesn't get the love for Felix Jones? This guy! :hifive:
Sorry to be so blunt: Kettle, meet pot.Fun fact time is not so fun. What does it have to do with anything? :goodposting: Fun fact time: What has Jahvid Best done with those carries? An awful 3.2 yard average.
 
Without diggin it up are getting involved in this....

I think I remember SSOG defending ShEli while I was arguing I'd rather have Trent Edwards last season. I think I had the "Max Hall/Easter Egg" side of that argument.....

 
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Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel are, in my opinion, garbage. You can't start them, because if you start them you're getting destroyed by every team in the league. They have no upside above what they are today, and what they are today is garbage. They're getting outperformed by guys that could be had for a stick of gum (Matt Hasselbeck) or even less (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill). Garbage with a capital G-A-R.
I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Fitzpatrick. If you've been starting him, that's bad process with a good outcome (so far). You just as easily could've had Seneca Wallace out there and scored half as much.
I don't think that Orton is a problem with the theory. The problem is that Orton never should have been considered a guy who was at his ceiling in the first place. He'd improved in every important statistic (comp%, ypa, TD%, Int%, QBRating) for 4 straight years. He'd actually looked very good in 2008 before injury hampered him. Denver had its choice of several young QBs and specifically dealt with the Bears because they wanted Orton. Personally, I just got blinded by how terrible he was as a rookie, and then out of laziness I kept using him as a punchline rather than objectively re-evaluating.There's nothing wrong with the "lottery tickets are better than guaranteed losers" philosophy, but as in all things, you have to be able to successfully identify who are the lottery tickets and who are the guaranteed losers. And if someone wants to argue that I'm placing Palmer or Cassel in the "guaranteed losers" bucket prematurely, I'd be very happy to listen to their arguments.
It's not just Orton - we've also seen great fantasy numbers from Schaub, Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Marc Bulger, Jake Plummer, Rich Gannon, Steve Beuerlein, and various other decent to mediocre QBs. There is no such thing as a guaranteed loser - a QB20 who is sure to finish each year around fantasy QB20. Every decent starting quarterback is a lottery ticket who could luck their way into a ridiculous receiving corps or a QB-friendly offensive system that makes them pay off big.
 
Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel are, in my opinion, garbage. You can't start them, because if you start them you're getting destroyed by every team in the league. They have no upside above what they are today, and what they are today is garbage. They're getting outperformed by guys that could be had for a stick of gum (Matt Hasselbeck) or even less (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill). Garbage with a capital G-A-R.
I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Fitzpatrick. If you've been starting him, that's bad process with a good outcome (so far). You just as easily could've had Seneca Wallace out there and scored half as much.
I don't think that Orton is a problem with the theory. The problem is that Orton never should have been considered a guy who was at his ceiling in the first place. He'd improved in every important statistic (comp%, ypa, TD%, Int%, QBRating) for 4 straight years. He'd actually looked very good in 2008 before injury hampered him. Denver had its choice of several young QBs and specifically dealt with the Bears because they wanted Orton. Personally, I just got blinded by how terrible he was as a rookie, and then out of laziness I kept using him as a punchline rather than objectively re-evaluating.There's nothing wrong with the "lottery tickets are better than guaranteed losers" philosophy, but as in all things, you have to be able to successfully identify who are the lottery tickets and who are the guaranteed losers. And if someone wants to argue that I'm placing Palmer or Cassel in the "guaranteed losers" bucket prematurely, I'd be very happy to listen to their arguments.
It's not just Orton - we've also seen great fantasy numbers from Schaub, Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Marc Bulger, Jake Plummer, Rich Gannon, Steve Beuerlein, and various other decent to mediocre QBs. There is no such thing as a guaranteed loser - a QB20 who is sure to finish each year around fantasy QB20. Every decent starting quarterback is a lottery ticket who could luck their way into a ridiculous receiving corps or a QB-friendly offensive system that makes them pay off big.
Thigpen was never a QB20 guy, he was a backup thrown into an exceptional situation for 5 games or so.Schaub was a backup who got thrown into a great situation and produced elite ppg while getting injured on unrelated cheap shot incidents in two consecutive seasons. Never a "QB20" guy.Bulger was a backup who immediately produced elite fantasy stats when thrown into starterdom. When his great situation deteriorated, he tanked over about a 3 season window and was replaced. Never a "QB20" type guy, as we've been discussing.Cassel hasn't been that guy either, IMO, because he was a backup thrown into a great situation and produced QB8 iirc...then he was moved and is in his 2nd season with the new team. He's an unknown, in my book at least.I wasn't playing the game when those other guys were or weren't good, so I'll leave them to somebody else.
 
I actually love SSOG too. But he's an ostrich on an island way too often and he busts his neck pretending he's NOT. Much better, IMO, for him to listen and learn than to spit the bit defending his bizarre, out on a limb takes.

LOVE the drivel about Doughboy McNabb PPG rankings vs. Peyton. SSOG, care to wager what the week-in, week-out head to head matchups look like for McNabb and QB ~15 vs, Manning in weeks 1-15 for the last 10 years? I'd bet it's Manning winning 2/3 off the top of my head.

But keep on pumping out those vociferous opinions! I think we all love them, even though you're often W R O N G!

 
Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel are, in my opinion, garbage. You can't start them, because if you start them you're getting destroyed by every team in the league. They have no upside above what they are today, and what they are today is garbage. They're getting outperformed by guys that could be had for a stick of gum (Matt Hasselbeck) or even less (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill). Garbage with a capital G-A-R.
I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Fitzpatrick. If you've been starting him, that's bad process with a good outcome (so far). You just as easily could've had Seneca Wallace out there and scored half as much.
I don't think that Orton is a problem with the theory. The problem is that Orton never should have been considered a guy who was at his ceiling in the first place. He'd improved in every important statistic (comp%, ypa, TD%, Int%, QBRating) for 4 straight years. He'd actually looked very good in 2008 before injury hampered him. Denver had its choice of several young QBs and specifically dealt with the Bears because they wanted Orton. Personally, I just got blinded by how terrible he was as a rookie, and then out of laziness I kept using him as a punchline rather than objectively re-evaluating.There's nothing wrong with the "lottery tickets are better than guaranteed losers" philosophy, but as in all things, you have to be able to successfully identify who are the lottery tickets and who are the guaranteed losers. And if someone wants to argue that I'm placing Palmer or Cassel in the "guaranteed losers" bucket prematurely, I'd be very happy to listen to their arguments.
It's not just Orton - we've also seen great fantasy numbers from Schaub, Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Marc Bulger, Jake Plummer, Rich Gannon, Steve Beuerlein, and various other decent to mediocre QBs. There is no such thing as a guaranteed loser - a QB20 who is sure to finish each year around fantasy QB20. Every decent starting quarterback is a lottery ticket who could luck their way into a ridiculous receiving corps or a QB-friendly offensive system that makes them pay off big.
Thigpen was never a QB20 guy, he was a backup thrown into an exceptional situation for 5 games or so.Schaub was a backup who got thrown into a great situation and produced elite ppg while getting injured on unrelated cheap shot incidents in two consecutive seasons. Never a "QB20" guy.Bulger was a backup who immediately produced elite fantasy stats when thrown into starterdom. When his great situation deteriorated, he tanked over about a 3 season window and was replaced. Never a "QB20" type guy, as we've been discussing.Cassel hasn't been that guy either, IMO, because he was a backup thrown into a great situation and produced QB8 iirc...then he was moved and is in his 2nd season with the new team. He's an unknown, in my book at least.I wasn't playing the game when those other guys were or weren't good, so I'll leave them to somebody else.
I know that a lot of those guys had their big fantasy seasons either right after becoming a starter or right after moving to a new team. But the point I was making is about what it takes to be a top fantasy QB - it depends a lot on the quarterback's situation, not just on his talent. So even if you can look at a quarterback and know exactly who he is, even if you can say "he's just an average quarterback and he's never going to be anything more than an average quarterback" and be absolutely sure of it, you still don't know that he won't turn into a great fantasy quarterback. His team might develop some star receivers around him, they might switch to a QB-friendly system, or he might go to a new team which already has the right situation in place.Thigpen, by the way, took over as starter in week 8 of the 2008 season and was QB2 the rest of the way (PPG weeks 8-17), right behind Drew Brees and right ahead of Matt Cassel.
 
You say McNabb looks to be in decline, but I don't see it- looks like the same guy he's been for the last 3 years (when he's consistently been more valuable than Manning).
You haven't been watching him then. The guy has consistently missed at least 5 wide open WRs a game. He hasn't been a bad fantsy producer (in fact I use him in a QBBC in a re-draft league) and he has helped the Skins get off to a decent start, but he isn't an elite QB anymore. There is no way any team in the NFL would take McNabb over Eli at this point.
 
I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Fitzpatrick. If you've been starting him, that's bad process with a good outcome (so far). You just as easily could've had Seneca Wallace out there and scored half as much.
You can't call starting Fitzpatrick "bad process". If you're in a 2-team league with shallow benches, then yeah, starting Fitzpatrick is "bad process". If you're in a deep league and you had a QB go down for a week or two (not long enough to warrant trading for a backup), and Fitzpatrick was all that was available on the wire, then there's nothing wrong at all with throwing him out as a desperation start. And every week that Fitzpatrick has produced, the process has just gotten better and better. Last week, I was faced with a QB decision in several leagues, and I started Ryan Fitzpatrick. The guy was coming off of 20.2 point and 23.8 point games, and he was facing one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL. I think that's textbook "good process"- a hot player with a phenomenal matchup makes a great spot start. And lo and behold, Fitzpatrick put up 26.4 points. And no, you couldn't have "just as easily" had Seneca Wallace out there, because Wallace's matchups have been GARBAGE, and nobody plays garbage QBs with terrible matchups unless they have no other options.Even in your doomsday scenario (you get stuck with Seneca Wallace), the guys on the wire stack up well against the garbage QB2s. Seneca Wallace is averaging 12.9 ppg since getting the start (and that includes week 5 where he got injured and only got 40% of Cleveland's passing attempts- without that week he's averaging 13.2). Cassel is averaging 14.8 on the season. The difference between Matt Cassel and doomsday so far is a whopping 1.6 ppg. And I'd say the reality is far less than that- Wallace's 3 opponents were KC, Balt, and Cincy (the #13, 9, and 8 pass defenses according to FO). Cassel's have been SD (#3 pass defense), Cleveland (#28), SF (#14), Indy (#15), and Houston (#31). Taking into account SoS, I'd say Wallace has at least been a wash with Cassel.
It's not just Orton - we've also seen great fantasy numbers from Schaub, Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Marc Bulger, Jake Plummer, Rich Gannon, Steve Beuerlein, and various other decent to mediocre QBs. There is no such thing as a guaranteed loser - a QB20 who is sure to finish each year around fantasy QB20. Every decent starting quarterback is a lottery ticket who could luck their way into a ridiculous receiving corps or a QB-friendly offensive system that makes them pay off big.
A team traded a pair of 2nd rounders for Schaub, and he produced immediately. He was an Easter Egg, not a Dog Turd. Matt Cassel scored well back when he was an Easter Egg, but since then he has achieved Dog Turd status. Tyler Thigpen had a nice 10-game stretch... back when he was an Easter Egg. Marc Bulger was an Easter Egg back in 2002 who put up one of the highest 5-year PPG totals over the past decade, although Bulger has also descended into Dog Turd status since then. All of these are perfect examples of why you bet on the Easter Eggs- because they might be the next Schaub, Bulger, or even just Tyler Thigpen. Jake Plummer was a very good QB on a very bad team (as opposed to Cassel and Palmer, who are mediocre-to-bad QBs on mediocre-to-good teams), and he was changing teams. Gannon was changing teams, too. A change of scenery automatically makes someone an "easter egg" again, since the whole principle is "gamble on uncertainty rather than settling for a situation that is certainly bad".Beuerlein did have that one out-of-nowhere 2nd place finish at a time I would have labeled him a Dog Turd instead of an Easter Egg, but every rule of thumb has counterexamples. Just look at that huge list of examples of Easter Eggs who have blown up that you just provided, though. There's a huge amount of value in gambling on uncertainty instead of simply settling for a situation that you know won't produce.
 
You say McNabb looks to be in decline, but I don't see it- looks like the same guy he's been for the last 3 years (when he's consistently been more valuable than Manning).
You haven't been watching him then. The guy has consistently missed at least 5 wide open WRs a game. He hasn't been a bad fantsy producer (in fact I use him in a QBBC in a re-draft league) and he has helped the Skins get off to a decent start, but he isn't an elite QB anymore. There is no way any team in the NFL would take McNabb over Eli at this point.
I haven't seen every game, maybe two, but both times he did look less than great to me. I have seen what Doc Oc is saying
 
Sorry to be so blunt: Kettle, meet pot.

Fun fact time is not so fun. What does it have to do with anything? :banned:

Fun fact time: What has Jahvid Best done with those carries? An awful 3.2 yard average.
Sorry to be so blunt, but I think it's time to retire this "sorry to be so blunt" meme. Anyway, when the subject is so speculative and there's no obvious answer (i.e. it's not something like "who do you think will be better, Chris Johnson or Jonathan Dwyer?"), then it's kind of douchey to call someone's opinion flat-out wrong. Plus it's a great way to look like a complete idiot if it goes the other way and someone bumps your post a year or two from now. Both Best and Felix were late 1st round picks. Both have shown flashes of sublime talent in the league, both have their own respective hype trains. There are very good reasons to choose either of them. Don't pretend otherwise.As for what my fun fact has to do with anything... Felix has been in the league for 3 years and he has yet to have 16 carries in a game. You don't see what this has to do with anything? Dallas doesn't think he can be a workhorse. It's telling that in the draft where Dallas took Felix in the 1st, they spent another draft pick to get a second RB. You didn't see the Rams taking a QB in the 4th round this year, did you? Did you see the Lions or the Bills drafting a second RB after investing a premium pick on an RB to begin with? When Denver took Moreno and Arizona took Wells, did they hedge their bets with another RB?

I think there's a bounty of evidence out there right now that the Cowboys' front office does not think Felix Jones can hold up to a featured workload. I don't think the guy is ever going to top 250 carries for his career. Right now, he's being held back by the player formerly known as Marion Barber. When Barber gets put out to pasture, then Felix will split time with Tashard Choice. If both of those guys are gone, I bet Dallas brings in someone else to share the backfield. I have no doubt that they view Felix as an incredibly, incredibly potent offensive weapon and that they're thrilled to have him, but every indicator so far suggests that they think he's best served in a 1-2 punch rather than a featured role, which is always going to limit his carries, which will in turn limit his upside. Jahvid Best has had no such limitations placed upon him.

Does it suck that Best is averaging 3.2 ypc? Yeah, but it's an 80-carry sample size. That sort of stuff happens. What's more relevant to me is that Best has almost matched Felix Jones' CAREER TD totals, and that he's already exceeded Felix's CAREER receiving yardage totals. Best has been in the league for 6 games and he's already eclipsing marks that Felix has been amassing over 3 years. He also has more 16-carry games through 6 weeks that Jones has through 3 seasons. That tells me something. Coaches are smart people- if they aren't giving a guy 16+ carries, that tells me something. I mean, Tatum Bell once averaged a boatloads of yards per carry but saw his coaching staff steadfastly refuse to give him 16+ carries, too.

Without diggin it up are getting involved in this....

I think I remember SSOG defending ShEli while I was arguing I'd rather have Trent Edwards last season. I think I had the "Max Hall/Easter Egg" side of that argument.....
It sounds familiar. I definitely was defending Eli at points last year. While it seems my opinion on him is extreme, I'm not the guy all the way at the end of that spectrum.
You say McNabb looks to be in decline, but I don't see it- looks like the same guy he's been for the last 3 years (when he's consistently been more valuable than Manning).
You haven't been watching him then. The guy has consistently missed at least 5 wide open WRs a game. He hasn't been a bad fantsy producer (in fact I use him in a QBBC in a re-draft league) and he has helped the Skins get off to a decent start, but he isn't an elite QB anymore. There is no way any team in the NFL would take McNabb over Eli at this point.
Good points all around, except for the fact that I have been watching him (I've seen every game he's played, most of them twice), the fact that he has always missed open WRs at times (which is why Philly fans were always ragging on him), and the fact that his comp% is right at his career median value and his ypa is currently the 4th best of his career. I imagine plenty of teams would take him over Eli if they were both 1-year rentals. Football Outsiders has both Eli and McNabb putting up nearly identical production (they rank 13th and 14th in DYAR and 19th and 20th in DVOA) despite Eli playing with a better supporting cast.Heck, I'd even disagree with the claim that he hasn't been a bad fantasy producer so far. He's currently QB15, which is awful for a QB that hasn't had his bye yet. Pro-rate the bye-week guys and McNabb falls to 19th, right between Chad Henne and Matt Hasselbeck and behind Carson Palmer who I've spent the past several posts calling a dog turd.

Anyway, he hasn't put together any vintage McNabb games yet, but he's had enough plays to convince me that his skills are not in decline yet. He's learning an entirely new system. I'm not going to say he's losing it just because he's been inconsistent in his first few games in it.

 
Sorry to be so blunt: Kettle, meet pot.

Fun fact time is not so fun. What does it have to do with anything? :popcorn:

Fun fact time: What has Jahvid Best done with those carries? An awful 3.2 yard average.
Sorry to be so blunt, but I think it's time to retire this "sorry to be so blunt" meme. Anyway, when the subject is so speculative and there's no obvious answer (i.e. it's not something like "who do you think will be better, Chris Johnson or Jonathan Dwyer?"), then it's kind of douchey to call someone's opinion flat-out wrong. Plus it's a great way to look like a complete idiot if it goes the other way and someone bumps your post a year or two from now. Both Best and Felix were late 1st round picks. Both have shown flashes of sublime talent in the league, both have their own respective hype trains. There are very good reasons to choose either of them. Don't pretend otherwise.As for what my fun fact has to do with anything... Felix has been in the league for 3 years and he has yet to have 16 carries in a game. You don't see what this has to do with anything? Dallas doesn't think he can be a workhorse. It's telling that in the draft where Dallas took Felix in the 1st, they spent another draft pick to get a second RB. You didn't see the Rams taking a QB in the 4th round this year, did you? Did you see the Lions or the Bills drafting a second RB after investing a premium pick on an RB to begin with? When Denver took Moreno and Arizona took Wells, did they hedge their bets with another RB?

I think there's a bounty of evidence out there right now that the Cowboys' front office does not think Felix Jones can hold up to a featured workload. I don't think the guy is ever going to top 250 carries for his career. Right now, he's being held back by the player formerly known as Marion Barber. When Barber gets put out to pasture, then Felix will split time with Tashard Choice. If both of those guys are gone, I bet Dallas brings in someone else to share the backfield. I have no doubt that they view Felix as an incredibly, incredibly potent offensive weapon and that they're thrilled to have him, but every indicator so far suggests that they think he's best served in a 1-2 punch rather than a featured role, which is always going to limit his carries, which will in turn limit his upside. Jahvid Best has had no such limitations placed upon him.

Does it suck that Best is averaging 3.2 ypc? Yeah, but it's an 80-carry sample size. That sort of stuff happens. What's more relevant to me is that Best has almost matched Felix Jones' CAREER TD totals, and that he's already exceeded Felix's CAREER receiving yardage totals. Best has been in the league for 6 games and he's already eclipsing marks that Felix has been amassing over 3 years. He also has more 16-carry games through 6 weeks that Jones has through 3 seasons. That tells me something. Coaches are smart people- if they aren't giving a guy 16+ carries, that tells me something. I mean, Tatum Bell once averaged a boatloads of yards per carry but saw his coaching staff steadfastly refuse to give him 16+ carries, too.
I was not calling him wrong for liking Best more. I wouldn't do that, as they are pretty close, although I like Felix more in standard scoring. But when you say best is the better athlete, Best has proven more, and that Felix has nothing over Best, in terms of being a player, how can that not be wrong? I am not the one pretending that there is a wide gap between the two. You must have misread what I said. If you want to read it again, and continue the conversation, that would be great. If not, cool.

I have noticed that you love to use the actions of franchises as they fit your opinion. Examples: Dallas drafting another RB in the same draft, Vikings talking to SD about Jackson, AZ cutting Leinart. You don't know what these teams are thinking or why they are doing what they do. It is fine to have your opinion, but when you start adjusting rankings based off of that...I'll just say it is questionable.

RB is one of many positions in the NFL where it helps to have depth. In today's NFL, it is simply needed. Comparing a RB to a QB in that regard shows a lack of understanding - I'll help: There is only one QB on the field at a time. QBs don't need to be fresh, as they don't take the beating, and aren't constantly running, like RBs. QBs don't get injured as often. Aside from very few examples, there is no need for a change of pace QB. Next time you watch an NFL game, turn the volume on. You will hear the announcers talk about how you have to have two or more good RBs in the NFL now-a-days.

And you can "think" that Dallas will never use Felix as an every down back. But doing so is choosing ignorance. Look at the carry count the last two games. That is exactly what they are doing. And it is so funny that you use this as a negative for Felix, yet rank Charles way up there, when, based on questionable logic, his coaches don't think he can carry the load. At least be consistent.

 
Homer said:
I actually love SSOG too. But he's an ostrich on an island way too often and he busts his neck pretending he's NOT. Much better, IMO, for him to listen and learn than to spit the bit defending his bizarre, out on a limb takes.LOVE the drivel about Doughboy McNabb PPG rankings vs. Peyton. SSOG, care to wager what the week-in, week-out head to head matchups look like for McNabb and QB ~15 vs, Manning in weeks 1-15 for the last 10 years? I'd bet it's Manning winning 2/3 off the top of my head.But keep on pumping out those vociferous opinions! I think we all love them, even though you're often W R O N G!
FBG has game logs back to 2002 so covering the last eight full seasons plus six weeks into this season using FBG scoring you get:Manning ahead 64 times (8 of these were a McNabb bye), McNabb ahead 55 times (8 of these were a Manning bye) plus 23 more times Manning wins because McNabb was injured.
 
Homer said:
I actually love SSOG too. But he's an ostrich on an island way too often and he busts his neck pretending he's NOT. Much better, IMO, for him to listen and learn than to spit the bit defending his bizarre, out on a limb takes.

LOVE the drivel about Doughboy McNabb PPG rankings vs. Peyton. SSOG, care to wager what the week-in, week-out head to head matchups look like for McNabb and QB ~15 vs, Manning in weeks 1-15 for the last 10 years? I'd bet it's Manning winning 2/3 off the top of my head.

But keep on pumping out those vociferous opinions! I think we all love them, even though you're often W R O N G!
FBG has game logs back to 2002 so covering the last eight full seasons plus six weeks into this season using FBG scoring you get:Manning ahead 64 times (8 of these were a McNabb bye), McNabb ahead 55 times (8 of these were a Manning bye) plus 23 more times Manning wins because McNabb was injured.
Just plug in Shaun Hill or Ryan Fitzpatrick during those weeks and get back to us.
 
SSOG said:
I think there's a bounty of evidence out there right now that the Cowboys' front office does not think Felix Jones can hold up to a featured workload.
And Best has shown that he's going to hold up to a featured workload? Guy has been questionable for over half his NFL life (see how stats can be skewed). Do you think Best would have surpassed your magical 17 carry number twice if Marion Barber was on the Lions instead of a rehabbing Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris?
SSOG said:
Does it suck that Best is averaging 3.2 ypc? Yeah, but it's an 80-carry sample size. That sort of stuff happens. What's more relevant to me is that Best has almost matched Felix Jones' CAREER TD totals, and that he's already exceeded Felix's CAREER receiving yardage totals. Best has been in the league for 6 games and he's already eclipsing marks that Felix has been amassing over 3 years. He also has more 16-carry games through 6 weeks that Jones has through 3 seasons. That tells me something. Coaches are smart people- if they aren't giving a guy 16+ carries, that tells me something. I mean, Tatum Bell once averaged a boatloads of yards per carry but saw his coaching staff steadfastly refuse to give him 16+ carries, too.
William Green had more yards and TD in his rookie year than Michael Turner had in his first three seasons. Think that had something to do with LT? Think Felix's number have anything to do with M. Barber?
 
Homer said:
I actually love SSOG too. But he's an ostrich on an island way too often and he busts his neck pretending he's NOT. Much better, IMO, for him to listen and learn than to spit the bit defending his bizarre, out on a limb takes.

LOVE the drivel about Doughboy McNabb PPG rankings vs. Peyton. SSOG, care to wager what the week-in, week-out head to head matchups look like for McNabb and QB ~15 vs, Manning in weeks 1-15 for the last 10 years? I'd bet it's Manning winning 2/3 off the top of my head.

But keep on pumping out those vociferous opinions! I think we all love them, even though you're often W R O N G!
FBG has game logs back to 2002 so covering the last eight full seasons plus six weeks into this season using FBG scoring you get:Manning ahead 64 times (8 of these were a McNabb bye), McNabb ahead 55 times (8 of these were a Manning bye) plus 23 more times Manning wins because McNabb was injured.
Just plug in Shaun Hill or Ryan Fitzpatrick during those weeks and get back to us.
Haha. I've done my work. Homer can do what he wants with the info.... I only did the work because his statement had me curious what the result would be. It's clearly not a 2 to 1 Manning advantage.
 
Homer said:
I actually love SSOG too. But he's an ostrich on an island way too often and he busts his neck pretending he's NOT. Much better, IMO, for him to listen and learn than to spit the bit defending his bizarre, out on a limb takes.

LOVE the drivel about Doughboy McNabb PPG rankings vs. Peyton. SSOG, care to wager what the week-in, week-out head to head matchups look like for McNabb and QB ~15 vs, Manning in weeks 1-15 for the last 10 years? I'd bet it's Manning winning 2/3 off the top of my head.

But keep on pumping out those vociferous opinions! I think we all love them, even though you're often W R O N G!
FBG has game logs back to 2002 so covering the last eight full seasons plus six weeks into this season using FBG scoring you get:Manning ahead 64 times (8 of these were a McNabb bye), McNabb ahead 55 times (8 of these were a Manning bye) plus 23 more times Manning wins because McNabb was injured.
Just plug in Shaun Hill or Ryan Fitzpatrick during those weeks and get back to us.
Haha. I've done my work. Homer can do what he wants with the info.... I only did the work because his statement had me curious what the result would be. It's clearly not a 2 to 1 Manning advantage.
Not that clearly. Manning was ahead of Donovan 87 out of 142 games, over 61%. Pretty close to 2:1 if you don't include the injury plug-ins.Homer's statement is correct.... Manning is better week-in, week-out.... but almost exclusively because Donovan doesn't get on the field often enough. The problem is that the statement has nothing to do with SSOG's point.

However, SSOG's statement is also correct... McNabb can hold his own in PPG with Manning, since its close to even in games that Donovan actually played. The problem is that this is a relatively useless stat when dealing with McNabb. In its original context ( the debate between Donovan and **Eli** ), its an interesting point to consider, but getting sidetracked on Peyton is a bit silly.

Really... all this line of analysis does is to provide the news flash that Peyton Manning is a more valuable quarterback than Donovan McNabb. :kicksrock:

 
Concept Coop said:
I was not calling him wrong for liking Best more. I wouldn't do that, as they are pretty close, although I like Felix more in standard scoring. But when you say best is the better athlete, Best has proven more, and that Felix has nothing over Best, in terms of being a player, how can that not be wrong?

I am not the one pretending that there is a wide gap between the two. You must have misread what I said. If you want to read it again, and continue the conversation, that would be great. If not, cool.
The OP said that Best was younger (fact) and that he had produced more in college (fact). Stating that Best has better hands is an opinion, but a pretty reasonable one (if he had said that Best was substantially more involved in the passing game, it would have moved from opinion to fact). The only really questionable parts of the post were "he's a better athlete" and "he's shown more in the NFL". In terms of who's a better athlete, I'd call it something of a tossup (going off of combine results, Best had a better 40, 3-cone, shuttle, and bench, while Felix won in the high jump and broad jump, and he carried 8 extra pounds). It's unclear enough that I wouldn't call someone who argued either side flat-out wrong. And as far as showing more at an NFL level... well, that's a highly subjective statement, and I really don't know if I could call that flat out wrong, either. I think Felix has shown more, but he's had more opportunities to show something. And Felix has also shown he's a constant injury risk whose coaches won't give him a full workload. So, again, I could see a rational person arguing from either side of the aisle. I didn't have a problem with you disagreeing, but the way you did it ("Sorry to be so blunt, but you're wrong") ruffled my feathers a bit.
I have noticed that you love to use the actions of franchises as they fit your opinion. Examples: Dallas drafting another RB in the same draft, Vikings talking to SD about Jackson, AZ cutting Leinart. You don't know what these teams are thinking or why they are doing what they do. It is fine to have your opinion, but when you start adjusting rankings based off of that...I'll just say it is questionable.

RB is one of many positions in the NFL where it helps to have depth. In today's NFL, it is simply needed. Comparing a RB to a QB in that regard shows a lack of understanding - I'll help: There is only one QB on the field at a time. QBs don't need to be fresh, as they don't take the beating, and aren't constantly running, like RBs. QBs don't get injured as often. Aside from very few examples, there is no need for a change of pace QB. Next time you watch an NFL game, turn the volume on. You will hear the announcers talk about how you have to have two or more good RBs in the NFL now-a-days.

And you can "think" that Dallas will never use Felix as an every down back. But doing so is choosing ignorance. Look at the carry count the last two games. That is exactly what they are doing. And it is so funny that you use this as a negative for Felix, yet rank Charles way up there, when, based on questionable logic, his coaches don't think he can carry the load. At least be consistent.
Yes, I do try to take a franchise's actions into account and from that divine their motivations. I think there's a lot of value to be mined from reading between the lines. It's not like franchises are going to come out and tell us these things... and even if they did, we'd sit around for weeks dissecting what they said before ultimately labeling it "fluff" or "spin".By the way, I've looked at the carry count from the past two games. 14 and 15 carries. That's absolutely no different than what he was doing at the end of last season (10, 14, 10, 15, 16, 14 carries in his final 6 games). And after that, there was all this talk over the offseason about getting Felix a larger role, and the Felix hype train started rolling, and Felix opened the season with... 8, 7, and 7 carries. Again, we're 27 games into his career, and Felix still has yet to top 16 carries.

Just plug in Shaun Hill or Ryan Fitzpatrick during those weeks and get back to us.
Ummm... my point was never that Donovan McNabb was better than Peyton Manning, and I don't know how that entire tangent even got started. I only mentioned Peyton Manning to demonstrate that Donovan McNabb has huge, explosive, virtually unmatched fantasy upside. The reason I mentioned that upside is because I was making the point that McNabb is better than ELI Manning. Want me to compare game logs since 2002 to see how often McNabb would have beaten ELI?
 
Concept Coop said:
SSOG said:
Concept Coop said:
Sorry to be so blunt: Kettle, meet pot.

Fun fact time is not so fun. What does it have to do with anything? :rolleyes:

Fun fact time: What has Jahvid Best done with those carries? An awful 3.2 yard average.
Sorry to be so blunt, but I think it's time to retire this "sorry to be so blunt" meme. Anyway, when the subject is so speculative and there's no obvious answer (i.e. it's not something like "who do you think will be better, Chris Johnson or Jonathan Dwyer?"), then it's kind of douchey to call someone's opinion flat-out wrong. Plus it's a great way to look like a complete idiot if it goes the other way and someone bumps your post a year or two from now. Both Best and Felix were late 1st round picks. Both have shown flashes of sublime talent in the league, both have their own respective hype trains. There are very good reasons to choose either of them. Don't pretend otherwise.As for what my fun fact has to do with anything... Felix has been in the league for 3 years and he has yet to have 16 carries in a game. You don't see what this has to do with anything? Dallas doesn't think he can be a workhorse. It's telling that in the draft where Dallas took Felix in the 1st, they spent another draft pick to get a second RB. You didn't see the Rams taking a QB in the 4th round this year, did you? Did you see the Lions or the Bills drafting a second RB after investing a premium pick on an RB to begin with? When Denver took Moreno and Arizona took Wells, did they hedge their bets with another RB?

I think there's a bounty of evidence out there right now that the Cowboys' front office does not think Felix Jones can hold up to a featured workload. I don't think the guy is ever going to top 250 carries for his career. Right now, he's being held back by the player formerly known as Marion Barber. When Barber gets put out to pasture, then Felix will split time with Tashard Choice. If both of those guys are gone, I bet Dallas brings in someone else to share the backfield. I have no doubt that they view Felix as an incredibly, incredibly potent offensive weapon and that they're thrilled to have him, but every indicator so far suggests that they think he's best served in a 1-2 punch rather than a featured role, which is always going to limit his carries, which will in turn limit his upside. Jahvid Best has had no such limitations placed upon him.

Does it suck that Best is averaging 3.2 ypc? Yeah, but it's an 80-carry sample size. That sort of stuff happens. What's more relevant to me is that Best has almost matched Felix Jones' CAREER TD totals, and that he's already exceeded Felix's CAREER receiving yardage totals. Best has been in the league for 6 games and he's already eclipsing marks that Felix has been amassing over 3 years. He also has more 16-carry games through 6 weeks that Jones has through 3 seasons. That tells me something. Coaches are smart people- if they aren't giving a guy 16+ carries, that tells me something. I mean, Tatum Bell once averaged a boatloads of yards per carry but saw his coaching staff steadfastly refuse to give him 16+ carries, too.
I was not calling him wrong for liking Best more. I wouldn't do that, as they are pretty close, although I like Felix more in standard scoring. But when you say best is the better athlete, Best has proven more, and that Felix has nothing over Best, in terms of being a player, how can that not be wrong? I am not the one pretending that there is a wide gap between the two. You must have misread what I said. If you want to read it again, and continue the conversation, that would be great. If not, cool.

I have noticed that you love to use the actions of franchises as they fit your opinion. Examples: Dallas drafting another RB in the same draft, Vikings talking to SD about Jackson, AZ cutting Leinart. You don't know what these teams are thinking or why they are doing what they do. It is fine to have your opinion, but when you start adjusting rankings based off of that...I'll just say it is questionable.

RB is one of many positions in the NFL where it helps to have depth. In today's NFL, it is simply needed. Comparing a RB to a QB in that regard shows a lack of understanding - I'll help: There is only one QB on the field at a time. QBs don't need to be fresh, as they don't take the beating, and aren't constantly running, like RBs. QBs don't get injured as often. Aside from very few examples, there is no need for a change of pace QB. Next time you watch an NFL game, turn the volume on. You will hear the announcers talk about how you have to have two or more good RBs in the NFL now-a-days.

And you can "think" that Dallas will never use Felix as an every down back. But doing so is choosing ignorance. Look at the carry count the last two games. That is exactly what they are doing. And it is so funny that you use this as a negative for Felix, yet rank Charles way up there, when, based on questionable logic, his coaches don't think he can carry the load. At least be consistent.
So have you guys figured out who pisses further yet?
 
Just plug in Shaun Hill or Ryan Fitzpatrick during those weeks and get back to us.
Ummm... my point was never that Donovan McNabb was better than Peyton Manning, and I don't know how that entire tangent even got started. I only mentioned Peyton Manning to demonstrate that Donovan McNabb has huge, explosive, virtually unmatched fantasy upside. The reason I mentioned that upside is because I was making the point that McNabb is better than ELI Manning. Want me to compare game logs since 2002 to see how often McNabb would have beaten ELI?
It was just a joke based on several different trains of thought, being made in the last couple of pages :thumbdown: , but if you want to spend a few minutes pulling game logs for McNabb and Eli feel free. I never once said that McNabb in his prime wasn't either a better NFL or fantasy QB (he certainly was), the only time I even compared the two was where I said ranking manning behind McNabb in dynasty rankings based on "ceilngs" didn't make all that much sense (but that's just my opinon). Also I'm not sure how you don't see signs of decline in McNabb, but that's ok as well.

 
Oh, and speaking of McNabb... pop quiz. How many times has Peyton Manning finished as QB1 in points per game? Answer: 0. How many times has McNabb? Answer: 3.
By the way, this is probably why some one else brought up the Peyton v. Donovan statistics.
 
One problem with the "long term QB2s are worthless" theory is Kyle Orton. Orton was exactly the type of guy who could be acquired for pennies if you needed someone short term. Until he wasn't. Highest ranking was QB16 until this year. I don't know if Cassel can be that guy for KC. But he has at least the same shot as Max Hall. I know it is possible because he was the #8 scoring QB his one year starting in NE.
Orton's playing fine, fine ball right now, but I think he's being over-rated for dynasty. He's a nice player, and certainly better than the Palmer tier that we've been talking about, but IMO he's nowhere close to making the jump in with the elite guys. He's comparable to Schaub... a guy with enough talent to take advantage of a situation that's incredibly favorable to QBs.... but as we're seeing with Schaub, he shouldn't be spoken about in the same breath as guys like Roethlisberger and Rivers.SSOG has warned us about ranking a guy based on a hot streak.... and its pretty obvious that Orton's on a hot streak. He's playing lights out, but he's doing it in a QB-production haven that **might** last the entire year. However there's no chance that Denver's running game remains as putrid as it has been, and Orton's numbers will plummet when it improves. He's throwing a ton of balls, and while he probably remains right around the Matt Ryan/Eli territory, and there's so many guys in that tier that all of their values are deflated. Orton's not going to be a fantasy QB1 for much longer, and thus he's not going to have premium dynasty value for much longer... if he has much now anyway. I haven't seen any deals for him, but my guess is that this is one of those Peyton Hillis situations where most owners won't take what others are willing to pay.
SSOG, was wondering whether you could comment here. Its close to one of those semantic debates, since I'm not talking about a tier change, but something about seeing Orton at #11 rubs me the wrong way. All the guys in your 3rd tier have flaws, and all have strengths, whether it be offensive scheme, talent level, simple age, etc. Orton seems to be the "jack of all trades, master of none" in this regard.But, we've been debating about how QB upside is the holy grail for this tier, and I'm just not sure I see Orton as having more upside that he has right now. It feels like this is his ceiling, and that its not a sustainable result. Granted, its a hell of a ceiling, but when he falls back down to Eli Manning-level numbers, I can't see him being the best of this tier.Corollary: Matt Schaub is over-rated. :(
 
SSOG said:
I think there's a bounty of evidence out there right now that the Cowboys' front office does not think Felix Jones can hold up to a featured workload.
And Best has shown that he's going to hold up to a featured workload? Guy has been questionable for over half his NFL life (see how stats can be skewed). Do you think Best would have surpassed your magical 17 carry number twice if Marion Barber was on the Lions instead of a rehabbing Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris?
SSOG said:
Does it suck that Best is averaging 3.2 ypc? Yeah, but it's an 80-carry sample size. That sort of stuff happens. What's more relevant to me is that Best has almost matched Felix Jones' CAREER TD totals, and that he's already exceeded Felix's CAREER receiving yardage totals. Best has been in the league for 6 games and he's already eclipsing marks that Felix has been amassing over 3 years. He also has more 16-carry games through 6 weeks that Jones has through 3 seasons. That tells me something. Coaches are smart people- if they aren't giving a guy 16+ carries, that tells me something. I mean, Tatum Bell once averaged a boatloads of yards per carry but saw his coaching staff steadfastly refuse to give him 16+ carries, too.
William Green had more yards and TD in his rookie year than Michael Turner had in his first three seasons. Think that had something to do with LT? Think Felix's number have anything to do with M. Barber?
Please tell me you didn't just compare LT with Barber? It is not even close which destroys your comparison.
 
:lmao: I like the Hester comment. For the record, i am not a Hester hater, i just thought you had him too high. I do want to ask you one thing though. You say the only reason you knocked him down a few points was because of his reduced role in the offense. Dont you think he is getting a reduced role for a reason? Wether you believe he is ahead of or behind the curve, doesnt it seem like a bad thing that a 27 year old WR is getting his role reduced, and on a team that doesnt have very good WR's?

As for Britt, sure, his numbers would only prorate to 560 yards, but he is only 22 and still maturing as a WR. I wonder why you are willing to give Hester the benefit of the doubt, but not Britt, despite the fact that Hester prorated numbers would not even be half of Britts. Especially when you consider Hester started the season and is now getting a reduced role, and Britt didnt start the season and now starting to see an expanded role.
I'm giving both players the benefit of the doubt. Both guys are ranked 41st or better despite having nightmarish seasons in terms of production on the field and role in the offense (and yes, despite the TDs, Britt is having a nightmarish season- he's on pace for 560 yards and he got beaten out for a starting job by NATE WASHINGTON).And it is most certainly a bad thing for a 27 year old WR to see his role getting reduced. With that said, I think he's a talented player, I think he can ultimately succeed at the transition, and he's already put up very strong production once. People get hung up on his age as if 27 is old for a WR. It's not.

Jermichael Finley: I think he flashed elite talent both last season and this season. But he has and will miss large parts of two seasons (maybe 3) because of injury. Any reason to downgrade him due to a slightly higher risk of injury? Is he injury-prone?

My experience is that dynasty owners value Finley no differently than before the injury unless they are in contention and need to move him for immediate help. Otherwise, they think he'll pick up where he left off and sky's the limit.

My gut says to downgrade him at least a bit, maybe more.
I'm not downgrading him. It's sort of a weird time for TEs, as everyone else is either aging, injured, ineffective, or unproven. I've got Finley at #1 overall. Honestly, who would you put above him? Gates I could easily see... but, of course, Gates might be missing time with his own injury, now. Davis? Sure, I could see that, although I think Finley is the better talent. Clark? He's 31. I'd be hard-pressed to trade Finley for Clark straight up this year. It was always a down year for dynasty TEs (just like it was an up year for dynasty QBs), so there aren't a whole lot of guys waiting in the wings to step up to replace Finley in the rankings.He's 23, he's shown a lot of talent on the field, his coaches love him, his QB loves him... he's staying sky-high in my rankings.
Losing Finley in 2 of my 3 dynasty leagues was painful but I still won't trade him for any other TE right now. This was kind of a fluke injury no ?He has the talent to be one of the greatest TE's of all time from what I have seen. He is almost uncoverable at times.

I will lick my mounds and hope next year he can stay healthy.
Loved this one. :excited:

 
SSOG said:
I think there's a bounty of evidence out there right now that the Cowboys' front office does not think Felix Jones can hold up to a featured workload.
And Best has shown that he's going to hold up to a featured workload? Guy has been questionable for over half his NFL life (see how stats can be skewed). Do you think Best would have surpassed your magical 17 carry number twice if Marion Barber was on the Lions instead of a rehabbing Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris?
SSOG said:
Does it suck that Best is averaging 3.2 ypc? Yeah, but it's an 80-carry sample size. That sort of stuff happens. What's more relevant to me is that Best has almost matched Felix Jones' CAREER TD totals, and that he's already exceeded Felix's CAREER receiving yardage totals. Best has been in the league for 6 games and he's already eclipsing marks that Felix has been amassing over 3 years. He also has more 16-carry games through 6 weeks that Jones has through 3 seasons. That tells me something. Coaches are smart people- if they aren't giving a guy 16+ carries, that tells me something. I mean, Tatum Bell once averaged a boatloads of yards per carry but saw his coaching staff steadfastly refuse to give him 16+ carries, too.
William Green had more yards and TD in his rookie year than Michael Turner had in his first three seasons. Think that had something to do with LT? Think Felix's number have anything to do with M. Barber?
Please tell me you didn't just compare LT with Barber? It is not even close which destroys your comparison.
I think we all got the idea. He is right, so his comparison is valid enough. Barber was a Pro-bowl RB when Felix was drafted.
 
SSOG said:
I think there's a bounty of evidence out there right now that the Cowboys' front office does not think Felix Jones can hold up to a featured workload.
And Best has shown that he's going to hold up to a featured workload? Guy has been questionable for over half his NFL life (see how stats can be skewed). Do you think Best would have surpassed your magical 17 carry number twice if Marion Barber was on the Lions instead of a rehabbing Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris?
SSOG said:
Does it suck that Best is averaging 3.2 ypc? Yeah, but it's an 80-carry sample size. That sort of stuff happens. What's more relevant to me is that Best has almost matched Felix Jones' CAREER TD totals, and that he's already exceeded Felix's CAREER receiving yardage totals. Best has been in the league for 6 games and he's already eclipsing marks that Felix has been amassing over 3 years. He also has more 16-carry games through 6 weeks that Jones has through 3 seasons. That tells me something. Coaches are smart people- if they aren't giving a guy 16+ carries, that tells me something. I mean, Tatum Bell once averaged a boatloads of yards per carry but saw his coaching staff steadfastly refuse to give him 16+ carries, too.
William Green had more yards and TD in his rookie year than Michael Turner had in his first three seasons. Think that had something to do with LT? Think Felix's number have anything to do with M. Barber?
Please tell me you didn't just compare LT with Barber? It is not even close which destroys your comparison.
I think we all got the idea. He is right, so his comparison is valid enough. Barber was a Pro-bowl RB when Felix was drafted.
This is simply an astoundingly silly comparison. Ladanian Tomlinson was in the midst of performing as one of the greatest running backs of all time for most of the time Michael Turner was in San Diego. Marion Barber has performed nothing close to a pro bowl level running back since Felix Jones has been around. This is a very weak excuse to use when considering why Felix has never been able to take over the feature back role.
 
SSOG, was wondering whether you could comment here. Its close to one of those semantic debates, since I'm not talking about a tier change, but something about seeing Orton at #11 rubs me the wrong way. All the guys in your 3rd tier have flaws, and all have strengths, whether it be offensive scheme, talent level, simple age, etc. Orton seems to be the "jack of all trades, master of none" in this regard.

But, we've been debating about how QB upside is the holy grail for this tier, and I'm just not sure I see Orton as having more upside that he has right now. It feels like this is his ceiling, and that its not a sustainable result. Granted, its a hell of a ceiling, but when he falls back down to Eli Manning-level numbers, I can't see him being the best of this tier.

Corollary: Matt Schaub is over-rated. :goodposting:
Well, first off, Orton's already managed to sustain it over 40% of a season. While he's not going to pass for 5400 yards this year (or whatever he's currently on pase for), neither are the guys around him- a lot of players are "on pace" for unachievable numbers, so if Orton falls off, it doesn't matter because those guys will fall off by a comparable amount. I see no reason why Orton cannot continue to produce at an elite top-5 level for the remainder of the year and beyond, though. That's achievable. His yardage pace could fall by 20% and Orton would still clear 4500 yards with room to spare.Second off, I'm not rating Orton 11th based on the stats. It's the total package. It's not the fact that he's getting the numbers, it's *HOW* he's getting the numbers. Like Brees, Peyton, and Brady, he's ascended to that level where his #1 WR is "whoever's open". And while Denver's lack of running game certainly is conducive to Orton putting up huge aggregate stats, Denver is a *TERRIBLE* situation to be putting up good efficiency metrics in. The offensive line is patchwork and isn't getting great pass protection. The receiving corps is garbage- you've got Lloyd who is on his 4th team and who had 860 receiving yards over the previous 4 seasons combined. You've got Gaffney, a 9th year vet who has averaged 475 receiving yards for his career. You've got Eddie Royal, who had 345 receiving yards last year. You have Demaryius Thomas, who wasn't even running NFL routes a year ago. His TEs are garbage receivers. His RBs are a walking triage unit. His running game is far and away the worst in the league. Opposing defenses are just teeing off on him on every down because they know Denver can't and won't run the ball. They're mauling and doubling his garbage receivers that nobody in the NFL wanted. They're daring Orton to throw, and Orton is throwing a ton... but he's not just throwing a ton, he's throwing EFFICIENTLY. He's currently 4th in the NFL in YPA, 5th in AYPA, and 4th in ANYPA. He has a 3:1 TD:INT ratio. He's 2nd in DVOA. He's lit up teams like Baltimore, New York, and Tennessee. He is playing out of his mind right now. If I'd been in a coma for a decade and I woke up this offseason and just started watching football, I'd watch Kyle Orton play and bet good money that he was an All Pro and one of the consensus top 5 QBs in the NFL.

Moreover, while it's easy to dismiss this as a fluke, he's been laying the groundwork for this season for the better part of a decade. Here are all of his efficiency metrics season by season for his career.

Comp%: 51.6, 53.8, 58.5, 62.1, 62.8

INT%: 3.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.2, 1.2

YPA: 5.1, 6.0, 6.4, 7.0, 7.9

QB Rating: 59.7, 73.9, 79.6, 86.8, 94.2

That to me looks exactly like the profile of a 28-year old rising star who has been steadily toiling and improving until he's finally joined the NFL elite.

Personally, I feel like if I'm erring on Kyle Orton, it's that I have him too low, not too high. I still have a tiny bit of skepticism left in me, so I'm ranking him lower than he strictly deserves to be, but the guy is quickly destroying any last shreds of doubt I have left.

 
Concept Coop said:
benm3218 said:
SSOG said:
I think there's a bounty of evidence out there right now that the Cowboys' front office does not think Felix Jones can hold up to a featured workload.
And Best has shown that he's going to hold up to a featured workload? Guy has been questionable for over half his NFL life (see how stats can be skewed). Do you think Best would have surpassed your magical 17 carry number twice if Marion Barber was on the Lions instead of a rehabbing Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris?
SSOG said:
Does it suck that Best is averaging 3.2 ypc? Yeah, but it's an 80-carry sample size. That sort of stuff happens. What's more relevant to me is that Best has almost matched Felix Jones' CAREER TD totals, and that he's already exceeded Felix's CAREER receiving yardage totals. Best has been in the league for 6 games and he's already eclipsing marks that Felix has been amassing over 3 years. He also has more 16-carry games through 6 weeks that Jones has through 3 seasons. That tells me something. Coaches are smart people- if they aren't giving a guy 16+ carries, that tells me something. I mean, Tatum Bell once averaged a boatloads of yards per carry but saw his coaching staff steadfastly refuse to give him 16+ carries, too.
William Green had more yards and TD in his rookie year than Michael Turner had in his first three seasons. Think that had something to do with LT? Think Felix's number have anything to do with M. Barber?
Please tell me you didn't just compare LT with Barber? It is not even close which destroys your comparison.
I think we all got the idea. He is right, so his comparison is valid enough. Barber was a Pro-bowl RB when Felix was drafted.
This.And no, I did not compare LT to Barber. I compared situations that a talented, young back was a backup to a much better player at the time. I figured ben could figure that out on his own though.
 
Hey SSOG,

Whats your opinion on the Carolina scene and the dynasty value of the two combined RBs right now..

Do you see the situation picking up soon, Matt Moore was rushed back into play after being knocked unconscious and then steve smith went out..

Do you still like the two RBs in Carolina.. I still think they come around, but would like to hear what you think

Long term, do you see williams staying there

 
Hey SSOG,Whats your opinion on the Carolina scene and the dynasty value of the two combined RBs right now..Do you see the situation picking up soon, Matt Moore was rushed back into play after being knocked unconscious and then steve smith went out..Do you still like the two RBs in Carolina.. I still think they come around, but would like to hear what you thinkLong term, do you see williams staying there
I've got Stewart at RB5 and DeAngelo at RB14. If I knew for sure there would be no lockout next year, DeAngelo would be a little bit higher. It's hard to say what Carolina will be doing next season since there's so much uncertainty in the front office- I think John Fox is as good as toast, and who knows who the next HC will be or how he'll feel about his RBs. If I had to guess, I'd guess that the new guy would rather allocate resources to other areas of need instead of re-signing DeAngelo when Stewart is already in the fold but... :kicksrock: .I do expect DeAngelo to turn it around and be a top-15 to top-20 back going forward this season, even though Carolina's a mess. He's too talented not to produce. I don't know how long I'll have to wait before Stewart is producing, but Stewart is young enough that I'm not particularly worried.
 
1. Max Hall: How can you have him ranked ahead of Palmer, Tebow, Clausen, Cassel, Garrard, and so on? He has had one NFL start and didn't look great. He doesn't have all the measurables that you look for and there is very little chance he is starting anywhere next season. How can Matt Moore have a value of 4 and Hall have a value of 68? Matt Moore looked just as good in his first pre-season (Cowboys) and has even had flashes in the regular season. What makes you so sure that Hall is anything more than another Matt Moore?
I'm not a huge Hall beleiver either, but I'm not sure you can say that. There's a better than average chance that he's the starter in Arizona next season. Whisenhutt likes him and if he performs only adequately this season as a rookie, not sure why he wouldn't get another season.
Please explain this to me. Do you think hall looked good? Do you think he looked like a starting NFL QB? I sure as hell didn't. Granted, he is a rookie and should improve. But nothing about him tells me that he is even close to being a starting QB next season. He doesn't have all the physical tools and went undrafted for a reason. He is doing nothing that Matt Moore hasn't already done. He wasn't as impressive as Colt McCoy. Not only that, but the Cards are still a pretty good team, sans the QB spot. If they can get a guy like McNabb, who instantly makes them a legit threat in the playoffs, I don't think they are going to pass that up for Max freaking Hall.

I would put the odds at less than 25% Max Hall is starting anywhere in the NFL next season.
Hall beat the Saints, no? Pretty ####### good chance he keeps playing if he keeps winning. They had a chance at McNabb this season and didn't get him.
 
This is simply an astoundingly silly comparison. Ladanian Tomlinson was in the midst of performing as one of the greatest running backs of all time for most of the time Michael Turner was in San Diego. Marion Barber has performed nothing close to a pro bowl level running back since Felix Jones has been around. This is a very weak excuse to use when considering why Felix has never been able to take over the feature back role.
When Felix has played, he has put up 6 YPC and has looked great. What more do you want? If you want to invest a lot in the fact that the same front office that drafted Quincy Carter, plays Marion Barber more than Felix, cool. But Felix has done all that he can, when on the field. Injury concerns are one thing. But saying Felix has "never been able to take over the feauture back role" is silly. He is taking over the role as I type this, and is looking great and putting up numbers in the process.If you don't like the LT comparision, find another one. If you can't think of one, or need help, PM me. I'll help you find one.
 
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Hall beat the Saints, no? Pretty ####### good chance he keeps playing if he keeps winning. They had a chance at McNabb this season and didn't get him.
Really? The Cards did beat the Saints, yes. If you think Hall did, watch the game. If the Cards passed on McNabb because of Hall, Hall would have been starting all along. Instead, the awful Derek Anderson was the opening day starter.
 
Instead, the awful Derek Anderson was the opening day starter.
Rookie UDFAs don't start Week 1, period. It doesn't happen. So the fact that Anderson was the starter is 100% irrelevant. Hall could have been a clone of Montana and he'd have ridden the bench at the start of the season.
 
sorta an AC question BUT i've already made my decision on what to do so not looking for advice so i hope it is acceptable discussion because i thought it'd be interesting to compare these two

was offered Best for Felix in dynasty (plus a DEF downgrade but that didnt factor in to my decision)

VERY interesting to try and figure out the better longterm projections 'twixt these two and was wondering the thoughts of those from my favorite thread
If it's PPR....take Best and run with it.

Best is younger....produced more in college....has shown more in the NFL...has much better hands...more athletic.

The only thing Felix has on Best is the team around him.
Sorry to be so blunt, but you are simply wrong. What has Best Proven that Felix hasn't? The ability to have a monster game, or a poor game salvaged by two TDs? Felix has had big games, and has had them in the playoffs. The only reason Best has shown more, is becuase he gotten more carries, and targets.

Best produced more in college becuase he didn't play next to Darren McFadden, a Heisman candidate. Felix was a monster in college too and had an equal YPC, IIRC. And, you know, he played in the SEC.

Hands? Maybe. But Felix has good hands too.



More athletic? What do you base this on? Best is faster , but Felix is plenty fast, plenty quick, and has a much bigger frame. Best is a better althete only if DeSeason Jackson is a better athlete than Andre Johnson.

Felix has more potential to be a 3 down, do all back. In PPR, I would have to think about it. Standard scoring, it is Felix for me, thanks.
Call me surprised that a Cowboy fan is still backing Felix. After 3 years...we should know if Felix is the man or not...

 
Fun stat of the day: Kenny Britt, the guy who many have claimed is in the middle of a breakout, is currently on pace for 560 receiving yards this season.
How many yards is Britt on pace for now? Also, can we start counting his TD's as a positive? :stalker:
 
I loved Steve Johnson's talent coming into the year - easily one of my favorite two or three WW guys in terms of talent/potential (Naanee, Jeremiah Johnson). But I really figured "no way that the 2nd WR in Buffalo has any value this year." In the end I've only him on a handful of teams, but feel like I should own him everywhere. Lesson learned.

To the question... I think you have to move both guys into weekly starter roles now unless you're very deep at WR. This is a four game run, and Fitz actually looks like a guy for whom the penny has dropped. And even if not, Evans has shown he's nowhere near a spent force while Johnson has shown he's more likely than not a legit WR.

 
Go deep said:
Fun stat of the day: Kenny Britt, the guy who many have claimed is in the middle of a breakout, is currently on pace for 560 receiving yards this season.
How many yards is Britt on pace for now? Also, can we start counting his TD's as a positive? ;)
Ill answer, he is now on pace for 992 yards....and 16 TD's.

Take week 1 out, which he didnt play, at least didnt have a target, and his numbers prorated would look like this:

1157 yards and 19 TD's

After week 7, Hesters numbers would prorate to 416 yards and 2 TD's.

 

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