SSOG, was wondering whether you could comment here. Its close to one of those semantic debates, since I'm not talking about a tier change, but something about seeing Orton at #11 rubs me the wrong way. All the guys in your 3rd tier have flaws, and all have strengths, whether it be offensive scheme, talent level, simple age, etc. Orton seems to be the "jack of all trades, master of none" in this regard.
But, we've been debating about how QB upside is the holy grail for this tier, and I'm just not sure I see Orton as having more upside that he has right now. It feels like this is his ceiling, and that its not a sustainable result. Granted, its a hell of a ceiling, but when he falls back down to Eli Manning-level numbers, I can't see him being the best of this tier.
Corollary: Matt Schaub is over-rated.
Well, first off, Orton's already managed to sustain it over 40% of a season. While he's not going to pass for 5400 yards this year (or whatever he's currently on pase for), neither are the guys around him- a lot of players are "on pace" for unachievable numbers, so if Orton falls off, it doesn't matter because those guys will fall off by a comparable amount. I see no reason why Orton cannot continue to produce at an elite top-5 level for the remainder of the year and beyond, though. That's achievable. His yardage pace could fall by 20% and Orton would still clear 4500 yards with room to spare.Second off, I'm not rating Orton 11th based on the stats. It's the total package. It's not the fact that he's getting the numbers, it's *HOW* he's getting the numbers. Like Brees, Peyton, and Brady, he's ascended to that level where his #1 WR is "whoever's open". And while Denver's lack of running game certainly is conducive to Orton putting up huge aggregate stats, Denver is a *TERRIBLE* situation to be putting up good efficiency metrics in. The offensive line is patchwork and isn't getting great pass protection. The receiving corps is garbage- you've got Lloyd who is on his 4th team and who had 860 receiving yards
over the previous 4 seasons combined. You've got Gaffney, a 9th year vet who has averaged 475 receiving yards for his career. You've got Eddie Royal, who had 345 receiving yards last year. You have Demaryius Thomas, who wasn't even running NFL routes a year ago. His TEs are garbage receivers. His RBs are a walking triage unit. His running game is far and away the worst in the league. Opposing defenses are just teeing off on him on every down because they know Denver can't and won't run the ball. They're mauling and doubling his garbage receivers that nobody in the NFL wanted. They're daring Orton to throw, and Orton
is throwing a ton... but he's not just throwing a ton, he's throwing EFFICIENTLY. He's currently 4th in the NFL in YPA, 5th in AYPA, and 4th in ANYPA. He has a 3:1 TD:INT ratio. He's
2nd in DVOA. He's lit up teams like Baltimore, New York, and Tennessee. He is playing
out of his mind right now. If I'd been in a coma for a decade and I woke up this offseason and just started watching football, I'd watch Kyle Orton play and bet good money that he was an All Pro and one of the consensus top 5 QBs in the NFL.
Moreover, while it's easy to dismiss this as a fluke, he's been laying the groundwork for this season for the better part of a decade. Here are all of his efficiency metrics season by season for his career.
Comp%: 51.6, 53.8, 58.5, 62.1, 62.8
INT%: 3.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.2, 1.2
YPA: 5.1, 6.0, 6.4, 7.0, 7.9
QB Rating: 59.7, 73.9, 79.6, 86.8, 94.2
That to me looks exactly like the profile of a 28-year old rising star who has been steadily toiling and improving until he's finally joined the NFL elite.
Personally, I feel like if I'm erring on Kyle Orton, it's that I have him too low, not too high. I still have a tiny bit of skepticism left in me, so I'm ranking him lower than he strictly deserves to be, but the guy is quickly destroying any last shreds of doubt I have left.