Instinctive
Footballguy
I was making the point that there were at least 15 ahead of Britt, sorry for the confusion
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Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I respect your opinion on players, but aren't his big plays in the Philly game the exact same thing he has done since the preseason in 2009 - since entering the league? He's shown enough times that he can go downfield 40 yards and beat smaller CBs for balls. Shown he can adjust to under and overthrown balls.I don't think anyone bumping him thinks he'll get 3 TDs every game. But those TDs, plus the other 40 yarder are plays he's made before. It's not a blip on the radar. It's just people are now taking notice cause he had 3 or 4 of them in the same game.Please don't continue SSOG's "yardage consistency" argument. It was ridiculous last week, and it's even more so this week. He averaged 63 ypg last year in games he started. That's enough for 1000 yards. Do you think he'll get < 1000 yards this year barring injury?
shader
Footballguy
Totally disagree.
shader
Footballguy
I'd have Britt ahead of Bowe, Colston, Thomas (seriously?), Santonio (again, seriously?), and Sidney Rice. As I said, Britt is knocking on the door of number 10. Andre, Fitz, Calvin, Austin, D.Jackson, Marshall, Vincent, Dez. I liked Britt better than Nicks in the draft and I still do, although I like Nicks alot too.
EBF
Footballguy
21 NFL WRs eclipsed the 1000 yard mark in 2009. I definitely think Britt is capable of doing it this season.
That doesn't somehow make him a top 10 dynasty WR. Like I said, long term value is about consistency rather than isolated incidents of greatness. Individual games are fairly meaningless and even entire seasons can be misleading. Drew Bennett, Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, and Mike Furrey are living proof.
The reason guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Roddy White are valuable is because they're realistic threats to get 100 yards and a TD every week. One great game hasn't suddenly elevated Britt to that level. He's still just a promising prospect who may or may not pan out as a dominant WR1 in the long run. In that regard he's no different from the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, and Mike Williams.
None of this means that Britt can't become a star. I just don't see anything to distinguish him from 15-20 other guys who have similar talent.
That doesn't somehow make him a top 10 dynasty WR. Like I said, long term value is about consistency rather than isolated incidents of greatness. Individual games are fairly meaningless and even entire seasons can be misleading. Drew Bennett, Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, and Mike Furrey are living proof.
The reason guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Roddy White are valuable is because they're realistic threats to get 100 yards and a TD every week. One great game hasn't suddenly elevated Britt to that level. He's still just a promising prospect who may or may not pan out as a dominant WR1 in the long run. In that regard he's no different from the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, and Mike Williams.
None of this means that Britt can't become a star. I just don't see anything to distinguish him from 15-20 other guys who have similar talent.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Seriously? Britt's career season will likely be about what Rice has done already. About what Santonio has done already. Santonio is a top 10 receiver talent wise, in my opinion, and I find it hard to find a good reason he's not.Demaryius is every bit the prospect Britt was, and I think he's got much more potential. Actually, how has anything Thomas has done really been all that different from Britt? Highly rated prospect, great game in his rookie year, simply slowed a bit by injury. Colston would have gaudy stats on any other offense, but he gets doubled every play and his QB has other options...so he doesn't get stuff forced to him like some of the other top targets in the league.I think your recent viewing of a great performance has skewed your vision...a year ago I bet 90% + of the SP would have put Santonio in or on the bubble of the top 10. Just because he was suspended and hasn't done much this season in what, 2 games with a new and extremely young QB with a wealth of targets, does not mean he suddenly lost his talent.
EBF
Footballguy
If you liked Britt all along and you felt he was a top 10 talent before this week, fine. I have no problem with that. He was a first round pick, he has prototypical WR1 size, and he has a clear path to becoming the go-to guy for his team. There's a lot to get excited about. However, I don't recall many people saying he was one of the most talented WRs in the league prior to yesterday's big game. Could the sudden overflow of Britt love be yet another example of "What have you done for me lately?" mindset infesting dynasty thinking? It sure looks like it. I feel like every post I make this year is some variation of cautioning people against using results from an insignificant sample size to draw firm conclusions about a player's long term future. It's probably the single most common mistake people make in dynasty leagues. It's illustrated well by the Ron Dayne/Julius Jones paradox. In 2004, Julius Jones rushed for 803 yards in the final 7 games of the season. After the season he was a consensus top 10 dynasty back. In 2006, Ron Dayne rushed for 429 yards in the final 4 games of the season. After the season he was still considered a complete joke amongst football fans. Why did a few good games cause us to overrate Jones, but not Dayne? Because Dayne had already been in the league for several craptastic seasons. We knew he sucked, so when he pieced together a few good games, we didn't assume that those fluke showings were representative of his future. Jones, on the other hand, was a rookie when he had his fluky hot streak. Because he didn't have any track record, we had to assume that his miraculous string of games in 2004 was representative of his future. When asked to predict what his career would look like, we "filled in the blanks" with those flashes of brilliance that he showed us in 2004. It turns out that Jones was every bit as terrible as Dayne. We just didn't know it at the time because he hadn't played enough to prove how much he sucked. The same sort of thing happened with guys like Koren Robinson, Roy Williams, and Braylon Edwards. After piecing together one great season, all three former top prospects were elevated to the throne of dynasty superstar. None of them deserved it. Williams and Edwards have had spectacular moments since their breakout seasons, but neither has become the sort of consistent producer that supporters envisioned when they anointed them consensus top 10 dynasty WRs. If players like Edwards and Williams can fail to become consistent stars after showing flashes of brilliance then don't we have to admit that even a former first round pick like Britt isn't an automatic lock for stardom just because he has looked pretty good and logged one dominant game? I think so. Kenny Britt could be the next Terrell Owens or he could be the next Drew Bennett. I was watching in 2004 when Bennett had 12 catches for 233 yards and 3 TDs against the Chiefs. That was the high water mark of his career. As I've said numerous times, one good game or even one good season doesn't necessarily tell us anything about a player's staying power. I would think about that for a few seconds before ranking Canton Kenny above established talents like Santonio Holmes while dismissing the possibility of a similar prospect like Demaryius Thomas being in the same ballpark (hint: Thomas was drafted higher than Britt and is every bit the physical freak).
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Ive had Britt around 25 for the last several weeks, after this week he has moved up to #20.Im more excited to see how much he is going to move up SSOG's WR rankings.
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duaneok66
Footballguy
The main difference between Britt and guys likeMiles Austin (for example) has nothing to do with talent. Austin by almost every account is a hard worker and he has great character - meanwhile Britt hangs out in clubs and has some issues with avoiding trouble . . . if Britt never achieves stardom, his talent level (or lack thereof) won't be a reason . . .Garrett said:
Another Vincent Jackson sighting... PLEASE predict with any accuracy: 1) Where will he play next year? 2) How will his layoff affect him as he approaches late 20's? 3) How ill he rank among his receiving options?Next, name ONE WR who turned a bad actor/holdout whiner status into a perennial all pro status that you are grandfathering VJAX into with your ranking.I'd have Vjax at ~23 or so going forward. He will likely have decent value from 2011-13. Like 11-15 value in re-draft in 2/3 of those seasons... You'reYou're DRUNK on Kool-aid if you project him any better than that with the ??? mentioned above. Before/after and MAYBE during that timeframe -- he's ROADKILL
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One of the best posts I have ever seen on this thread. For those that keeping score, "good process"!!!And I got lucky buying low on DMC before this year (and had him benched this past week. DOH!!!).Uhh, I think I'm starting DMC over J Stewart going forward this year, though!I'm not too interested in rehashing the McFadden debates of years past, but it's telling that three seasons into his career a single 150+ yard rushing game is such a big deal that it causes people to bump ancient threads and pull out the "See, he doesn't suck!" card. As much as I've enjoyed poking fun at DMC in the past, I often went out of my way to acknowledge that he had explosive speed and would almost certainly yield occasional highlight reel moments. I still rate him clearly behind Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Ray Rice, and Jamaal Charles as an NFL player and FF asset. We don't bump threads when those guys have good games because we know they're good players and we expect them to excel. However, every time DMC does anything remotely promising the fanboys come out of the woodwork to have themselves a good pat on the back. I think it's telling that his successes have been so few and far between that a good game is still newsworthy. The fact that some people are bringing the whole BMI thing into the equation is pretty amusing considering that DMC has struggled to stay healthy throughout his NFL career and just recently missed the past two weeks with an injury. Where were the sarcastic BMI remarks when he was sitting on the shelf nursing his chicken legs? If you go back and read my posts from around the 2008 draft, my argument wasn't that DMC was complete crap who had no place in the NFL. It was merely that he was an overrated prospect who probably wouldn't become the consistent superstar that his most ardent supporters envisioned. I feel good about that prediction and I think it's funny that people still attack me about DMC when my original opinion was pretty sound. I guess the people who have suffered through seasons of DMC-induced frustration need to savor the rare feeling of success. Be my guest. If landing the 6th or 7th best RB from a draft class with the 1.01 rookie pick is cause for celebration, by all means break out the.
Did you miss the "in no particular order" part?I dont think its crazy to have him in the top 15, although i think he belongs just outside. I did have him in the top 10 before the season started, but watching Floyd put up similar numbers leads me to believe that Jacksons numbers were due more to Phillip Rivers than i thoght. Thats not to say Jackson isnt talented, but i question if he can put up top 10 numbers with most other QB's.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
It's more like everyone who drafted him last year saying "F'yeah." You don't spend a late 1st on a WR thinking maybe in a couple years he'll be a nice bye week fill-in. When he starts to show he might be more than that...
A high ranking for a young player takes into account a chance for failure. If you think he's a 21 year old TO and there's no chance of failure, he should be ranked top 2 or 3. No one is going that far. They're just saying he should be in the neighborhood of young players who haven't been consistent (Dez, Crabtreee) and ones with similar success to date (Harvin).
Santonio Holmes has 0 WR1 seasons. His best season he was WR15. If you want to be as cautious as possible, there's nothing separating him from Koren Robinson at this point other than a SB performance and drug of choice.I agree Thomas' upside is as similar to Britt's, there's no difference in their pedigree, and Thomas' offense is preferable. But at this point Thomas has about 2 drives of solid contribution. Britt has 8 solid starts plus some other big games and a season and a half of being healthy.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
There are only 5 or 6 Wr's i would take over Nicks in a dynasty league right now.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think it would be wrong to rank Britt near guys like Bryant and Thomas. My point was that it doesn't make a ton of sense to suddenly view him as a can't-miss superstar on the basis of one game. If people really believe that he's a top 10-15 type talent then they should've felt that way before Sunday.
As for Holmes, that's a pretty lame analysis. He has a career average of 63 yards per game, which prorates to 1008 yards over a full season. He has proven himself to be a productive player over a large sample size of 62 games. He can be expected to threaten 1000 yards every year when healthy. That makes him a valuable commodity.
As for Holmes, that's a pretty lame analysis. He has a career average of 63 yards per game, which prorates to 1008 yards over a full season. He has proven himself to be a productive player over a large sample size of 62 games. He can be expected to threaten 1000 yards every year when healthy. That makes him a valuable commodity.
For guys like EBF and SSOG who dont like Britt, yesterdays game will be viewed as fluky. For those of us who did like him before yesterdays game, its a sign of things to come. Obviously nobody should let his big game influence our opinions too much either way, it was just one game.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Those are interesting numbers, but I don't think they impact the original discussion about Holmes vs. Britt. We know that prospects who flash talent don't necessarily stick as productive players in the NFL. Just because Holmes isn't a sure thing doesn't somehow prove that Britt is a better gamble. In fact, I'd venture to guess that the opposite is still true. A player who averages 63 yards/game over a sample size of 62 games (Holmes) probably has a better career expectancy than a player who averages 50 yards/game over a sample size of 23 games (Britt). As much as I like to use stats and trends, I'm also in the camp that thinks a big part of FF success hinges on your ability to form accurate subjective opinions using circumstantial evidence. Regardless of what happens to Britt, my opinion is that Holmes is a legit player who will shatter the career numbers of Koren/Roy if he stays healthy and focused.
Having said that, I guess I can't fault people for still retaining a little bit of skepticism about Holmes considering that you can still frame his numbers in a pessimistic light. I just don't believe that perceptive football followers really question whether or not he's an above average starting NFL WR at this point. It seems pretty apparent despite the fact that he still might go all Roy/Koren on us.
az_prof
Footballguy
Why are people thinking he might go Roy/Koren? Because he had a run-in with the law? So has Britt. Don't they both have a bit of the knucklehead? I like both but the QB situation for both is less than perfect. To me they are a 'horse a piece' as my Dad used to say. In other words, take your pick.
How is that comparison even close to fair? Most Wr's take a couple years to develop, especially when they are as young as Britt. Britt just turned 22 years old and is starting to get more involved in the offense, so unless you think he peaked at the end of last year, begining of this year, its crazy to think he wont improve on that 50 YPG.Its also probably not fair to assume Holmes will continue to average 63 yards per game now that he is on the Jets. None of this is even taking into account that Britt is clearly a much better bet for TDs going forward.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't see what's complicated about it. Thrifty provided the examples of Koren Robinson and Roy Williams to show that even players like Holmes who have been relatively successful over a 50-60 game span aren't locks for long term success. I responded by saying that while this may be true, I'd venture to guess that players who have been relatively productive over a 50-60 game span are more likely to succeed than players who have been slightly less productive over a 23 game span like Britt.
Basically, if you're trying to prove that one player is less valuable than another, it's not enough to show that he might fail. You also have to show that the other guy is less likely to do so. Thrifty showed that players like Holmes sometimes fail, but he didn't show that players like Britt are less likely to do so. He didn't provide adequate context, so his examples really don't help us in our quest to determine the relative value of Holmes vs. Britt if we're looking at them as generic players who can be expected to adhere to recent historical trends.
Basically, if you're trying to prove that one player is less valuable than another, it's not enough to show that he might fail. You also have to show that the other guy is less likely to do so. Thrifty showed that players like Holmes sometimes fail, but he didn't show that players like Britt are less likely to do so. He didn't provide adequate context, so his examples really don't help us in our quest to determine the relative value of Holmes vs. Britt if we're looking at them as generic players who can be expected to adhere to recent historical trends.
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GregStarling
Footballguy
What's everyone's take on Ryan Grant? Does he get the job back next year if healthy?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Nice job putting the burden of proof on me. I was responding directly to your hypothesis that Britt should be below Holmes based on being established using the examples you provided. Holmes is no more established than the players you mention as failures. My argument would be if you have to have a track record longer than Roy Williams' Detroit seasons in order to prove you are "established" then being "established" has no merit. By those criteria, Holmes, Miles Austin, and Calvin Johnson would all fail to qualify as established.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Quoting from another thread. Who on this list other than Michael Clayton and Rod Gardner do you see that delivered as well as Britt did in 1.5 years that didn't do as well as Roy and Holmes did in 60 games?
BobbyLayne said:
EBF
Footballguy
Every player has risk. Torry Holt was one of the most bankable WRs in the game. Then his knees went and his production plummeted almost overnight. You can look at any player no matter how established and say that he might drop off at any moment. That doesn't tell us anything. What matters from our perspective is the odds. I think we intuitively accept that a player who has been good for 4 seasons is less likely to be a fluke than a player who has been good for 3 seasons, and so on.
When it comes to Britt and Holmes, I feel fine saying that a player who has produced a 63 yards/game pace over 62 games is less likely to be a fraud than a player who has produced a 50 yards/game pace over 23 games. I highly doubt that analysis of recent NFL history will contradict my stance.
Having said that, I don't think I ever suggested that a player needs to be "established" to be valued as an elite dynasty WR. I had Dez Bryant and Michael Crabtree in my preseason top 10 dynasty receiver rankings. Neither had earned his position with NFL production. I'm fully on board with making a judgment call about a player's future and ranking him accordingly. I've never suggested that Britt fans shouldn't rank him highly if their subjective opinion is that he's a star. I just don't think his scant results prove that he's destined for that outcome, nor do I think that his spectacular week legitimizes him as a dynasty star.
I'll ask the question again: If he's such a freak talent then where were all the Kenny Britt fans saying he was a surefire top 10-15 dynasty WR before his breakout game? If his elite ability is so apparent, why did his fanboys wait until after his breakout game to thump their chests?
I think it's pretty clear that this weekend's game has caused a spike in his value. The whole point of my initial post is that you shouldn't let one short-term data point dictate your evaluation of a player's long-term value. Kenny Britt may or may not have a great career. Surprising as it might sound, the fact that he caught 7 passes for 225 yards probably doesn't tell us much more about his future than we knew last week. None of this means that I don't think his supporters are justified in being optimistic. It just means that I don't think he has "proven" anything yet and I don't think there's any obvious objective reason to catapult him up the rankings above players who seemingly offer similar long term value.
When it comes to Britt and Holmes, I feel fine saying that a player who has produced a 63 yards/game pace over 62 games is less likely to be a fraud than a player who has produced a 50 yards/game pace over 23 games. I highly doubt that analysis of recent NFL history will contradict my stance.
Having said that, I don't think I ever suggested that a player needs to be "established" to be valued as an elite dynasty WR. I had Dez Bryant and Michael Crabtree in my preseason top 10 dynasty receiver rankings. Neither had earned his position with NFL production. I'm fully on board with making a judgment call about a player's future and ranking him accordingly. I've never suggested that Britt fans shouldn't rank him highly if their subjective opinion is that he's a star. I just don't think his scant results prove that he's destined for that outcome, nor do I think that his spectacular week legitimizes him as a dynasty star.
I'll ask the question again: If he's such a freak talent then where were all the Kenny Britt fans saying he was a surefire top 10-15 dynasty WR before his breakout game? If his elite ability is so apparent, why did his fanboys wait until after his breakout game to thump their chests?
I think it's pretty clear that this weekend's game has caused a spike in his value. The whole point of my initial post is that you shouldn't let one short-term data point dictate your evaluation of a player's long-term value. Kenny Britt may or may not have a great career. Surprising as it might sound, the fact that he caught 7 passes for 225 yards probably doesn't tell us much more about his future than we knew last week. None of this means that I don't think his supporters are justified in being optimistic. It just means that I don't think he has "proven" anything yet and I don't think there's any obvious objective reason to catapult him up the rankings above players who seemingly offer similar long term value.
Who said he is a top 10 dynasty WR? I have him at #20 because he is a first round pick and a physical freak that i have liked since he was drafted. My only real issue with him is his maturity, or lack of it. However, it can be expected from a kid who is now just old enough to drink. The fact that he had a 200 yard game has little to do with my ranking of him although it sure is a better sign of future production than a 1 catch 8 yard game.EBF said:
For the record, i have been harrassing SSOG in this thread that he wasnt given Britt enough credit BEFORE this weeks game. So its not like he hasnt had supporters here until now.
edit spelling
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wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
lol at marques coltson...if he didnt have brees hed be in the cflInstinctive said:
Actually, if he didnt have Brees, i would probably have him ranked higher.
All this talk about "nobody thought Britt was any good before this game" mumbo jumbo. What if people saw something in this game that made them realize that perhaps he is not a flash in the pan? Miles Austin ring a bell? No, I'm not comparing him to Austin or even saying their talents are close/similar, but I would argue that MORE people were partial to Britt before his breakout game than were fans of Austin before he broke out with a huge game.
Rankings update done. As we progress through the season, my rankings seem to be getting more and more stable, with positional movement decreasing by the week. Which isn't to say that there still aren't some big movers and shakers this week...
Change log, as always, available here: http://www.dynastyrankings.net/forums/view...p?f=3&t=152
Change log, as always, available here: http://www.dynastyrankings.net/forums/view...p?f=3&t=152
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Well it was a fun ride on the Britt banwagon for me but I traded him late tonight in one of my dynasties...im not going to get into the trade because I realize ill get dumped on and get told to go to the assistant coach forum....but basically I loved watching his stock rise since the season started and i do love the guys talent. since i dont have a biased opinion anymore I gotta say I agree with EBF. Hes is a knucklehead in a bad situation. If your willing to say your confidently putting britt in your starting lineup as your wr2 for the rest of the year your crazy. he is still (albeit a solid one) a wr3 with a chance of a wide variety of results. I think you can confidently sell high on this guy right now...the value of this guy is a top 15 dynasty wr and its the highest its going to be for at least another season or two. hes young and talented but hes got a long way to go as far as maturity goes...and I hate saying this but Roy Williams had all the talent in the world too...The fact is that work ethic,attention to detail and being a solid teammate is a much bigger deal that most of us want to admit...Britt has been in the doghouse for the last 2 years despite posting crazy numbers so far in his career...the titans know what they have in him on the field...if you noticed the first 4 weeks they would not play him untill important situations in the game(or at least target him). he would get all of his targets on late fourth quarter drives where they absolutely needed to score. i also have to agree with ebf that he is not an elite talent, a very solid talent...but not elite.
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What do you mean White just added the "monster game" capacity? 11/201/2 is huge, but White already had an 8/210/2 game to his name. Yesterday was nothing new.Personally, the only thing keeping White out of Tier 1 is that I simply don't think he's quite as good as the other guys. I'm very tempted to jump him over Calvin into "best of tier 2" status, though.
Prior to this year, that was what I did. I didn't have the time or the resources to form an educated opinion about every player. I was faced with a choice- I could either form a half-educated opinion about everyone, or I could form a full-educated opinion about half the league. I went the latter route. I'm sure I missed out on value as there were players who were undervalued who I didn't mess with because I didn't have a clear opinion about them... but I felt that I was able to perform just fine by limiting my dealings to a much more limited sample of players.
What two years of suckitude? McFadden averaged 4.4 yards per carry as a rookie. How is that suckitude? As I was fond of saying before the season, coming into this year McFadden had fewer career carries and a higher career ypc than Knowshon Moreno.
I had Roddy White 5th as of last November
You were the first to have him that high, based on what I have seen/read. Props.
I tried to trade Fitz for him BEFORE his monster game and was shot down. Roddy is on a roll, and I don't see that roll coming to an end anytime soon.
people put trades in here all the time. the trade gives us a guage of what a player's perceived value is. so go ahead and post it.
FUBAR
Footballguy
or just post it in the in-season trade thread.
Jedimaster21
Footballguy
I agree...this is a great, great post. I have never been a McFadden fan, but he has been pretty good so far this season. He hasn't surprised me with his incredible speed and willingness to put his head down for extra yards. But he also hasn't surprised me with his lack of elusiveness and inability to stay healthy. All along, the "anti-McFadden" opinions don't stem from the fact that he just plain sucks. He just won't bring the consistent success and domination expected out of a #1 pick and "can't miss" prospect.Homer said:One of the best posts I have ever seen on this thread. For those that keeping score, "good process"!!!And I got lucky buying low on DMC before this year (and had him benched this past week. DOH!!!).Uhh, I think I'm starting DMC over J Stewart going forward this year, though!I'm not too interested in rehashing the McFadden debates of years past, but it's telling that three seasons into his career a single 150+ yard rushing game is such a big deal that it causes people to bump ancient threads and pull out the "See, he doesn't suck!" card. As much as I've enjoyed poking fun at DMC in the past, I often went out of my way to acknowledge that he had explosive speed and would almost certainly yield occasional highlight reel moments. I still rate him clearly behind Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Ray Rice, and Jamaal Charles as an NFL player and FF asset. We don't bump threads when those guys have good games because we know they're good players and we expect them to excel. However, every time DMC does anything remotely promising the fanboys come out of the woodwork to have themselves a good pat on the back. I think it's telling that his successes have been so few and far between that a good game is still newsworthy. The fact that some people are bringing the whole BMI thing into the equation is pretty amusing considering that DMC has struggled to stay healthy throughout his NFL career and just recently missed the past two weeks with an injury. Where were the sarcastic BMI remarks when he was sitting on the shelf nursing his chicken legs? If you go back and read my posts from around the 2008 draft, my argument wasn't that DMC was complete crap who had no place in the NFL. It was merely that he was an overrated prospect who probably wouldn't become the consistent superstar that his most ardent supporters envisioned. I feel good about that prediction and I think it's funny that people still attack me about DMC when my original opinion was pretty sound. I guess the people who have suffered through seasons of DMC-induced frustration need to savor the rare feeling of success. Be my guest. If landing the 6th or 7th best RB from a draft class with the 1.01 rookie pick is cause for celebration, by all means break out the.
As for the Britt/Holmes debate, I think Britt is clearly the more valuable dynasty commodity for a few reasons:1. The perception by many that Britt has taken the next step has created a spike in has value that could allow you to "sell high" if you don't believe in his long term talent.2. The main argument for Holmes is about his consistency, and while that is important, it doesn't necessarily make him more valuable than Britt. While Britt hasn't proved that he can put up 60 yards a game, he also hasn't proved over a larger sample size that he won't be a fantasy difference maker. It comes down to upside. You can go with the safe bet to get a decent season with Santonio, or you can go with more of an unknown player that IMO has flashed dominance that Santonio has not.3. Britt has more prototypical size and more of an elite skill set than Santonio when it comes to the red zone. Britt has the ability to easily put up 10 scores in a season while Santonio has proven that although talented, his strength is between the 20s. 4. Britt has put up his numbers as an immature player, with mediocre QBs at best, in a run oriented offense. Santonio put up his numbers with one of the best QBs in the league throwing to him.5. If you are taking into account the "knucklehead" factor, you can't really rate Britt above Santonio at all.If I could have either player, I would take Britt without thinking twice because of his upside as a #1 WR with huge red zone potential. However, from a sheer perception vs reality standpoint, Santonio would be your better buy low.EBF said:
shader
Footballguy
I can't believe people are averaging Britt's first 23 games with Santonio's entire career and trying to pass judgment on that. Just hilarious.
Britt was a rookie last year. He had QB problems GALORE. He missed a couple games, and played sparingly in others, due to being a rookie. The Titans had a NUMBER of games in 2009 that severely impacted his production. There was the game in the snow in New England where the Titans got punished. In the final four games, the team sold out to get Chris Johnson the record. Specifically in the final two, Britt was not even a part of the equation.
Then he starts this year in the doghouse and on the bench. He didn't even play in week 1.
To get a good summary of what Britt can do, I'd look at the number of games in which he started and has been an integral part of the gameplan. That's 17. In those 17 games, Britt has about 1,000 yards.
He's on a team that is not known for passing stats. But at this point, Britt has shown the ability to do it all. He is great in the redzone and is a bigtime deep threat. A prototypical number 1 WR, and he's only 22 years old.
Britt was a rookie last year. He had QB problems GALORE. He missed a couple games, and played sparingly in others, due to being a rookie. The Titans had a NUMBER of games in 2009 that severely impacted his production. There was the game in the snow in New England where the Titans got punished. In the final four games, the team sold out to get Chris Johnson the record. Specifically in the final two, Britt was not even a part of the equation.
Then he starts this year in the doghouse and on the bench. He didn't even play in week 1.
To get a good summary of what Britt can do, I'd look at the number of games in which he started and has been an integral part of the gameplan. That's 17. In those 17 games, Britt has about 1,000 yards.
He's on a team that is not known for passing stats. But at this point, Britt has shown the ability to do it all. He is great in the redzone and is a bigtime deep threat. A prototypical number 1 WR, and he's only 22 years old.
Daniel Shirley
Footballguy
Love the information and discussion in this thread so much. Great and thoughtful insight on lots of topics.
I did want to bring up one, and as a big KC fan my view is going to be skewed here:
Jamaal Charles vs Ahmad Bradshaw
JC at DR.net is sitting at #7, will AB is at #18.
I look at the situation between KC and NYG running game and think they are similar (Charles=Bradshaw and Jones=Jacobs). The difference being NYG goes to the air more (takes rushing opportunities away but creates more running lanes when they do rush?). I see throughout the board Bradshaw being referred to as 'border line stud' a lot, but a lot of people saying beware Thomas Jones when talking about Charles.
As I watched what was happening in KC, I believe that Jones was brought in to take a somewhat equal load for around the first half of the season, and then JC will begin to see the majority (to try to replicate the second half success he saw in 2009) to take advantage of the 'worn down defenses' in the second half of the season. And if they do that, it is probably something they would do from season to season (if it works), and hopefully reduce the wear and tear on Charles giving him longevity in his production.
For Bradshaw, what is the story here, I'm not as tuned in as with KC. Also, what is the contract status with him and Jacobs in NY?
I did want to bring up one, and as a big KC fan my view is going to be skewed here:
Jamaal Charles vs Ahmad Bradshaw
JC at DR.net is sitting at #7, will AB is at #18.
I look at the situation between KC and NYG running game and think they are similar (Charles=Bradshaw and Jones=Jacobs). The difference being NYG goes to the air more (takes rushing opportunities away but creates more running lanes when they do rush?). I see throughout the board Bradshaw being referred to as 'border line stud' a lot, but a lot of people saying beware Thomas Jones when talking about Charles.
As I watched what was happening in KC, I believe that Jones was brought in to take a somewhat equal load for around the first half of the season, and then JC will begin to see the majority (to try to replicate the second half success he saw in 2009) to take advantage of the 'worn down defenses' in the second half of the season. And if they do that, it is probably something they would do from season to season (if it works), and hopefully reduce the wear and tear on Charles giving him longevity in his production.
For Bradshaw, what is the story here, I'm not as tuned in as with KC. Also, what is the contract status with him and Jacobs in NY?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
No one's here to chest thump. Or at least I'm not. I agree you would have had to have said "buy Britt now" 4 or 5 weeks ago if you wanted to chest thump. Certainly there are 2 or 3 week old "is Britt turning the corner" threads on the pool that do this. I'm not sure this is the best place to deposit those prognostications, especially if the sole purpose of doing so is to bump them up 2 months or 2 years later.The discussion started with a pretty non-ego-driven question about how Britt's performance affected his ranking. I'm just looking for a better argument for why he should below guys like Holmes, Santana, Sidney Rice, Steve Smiths, etc. other than "EBF doesn't trust him yet." You point to failure rate of young WRs, then ignore a list of 1st round WRs to talk about to back up your theory.EBF said:
Because he's done it a few times before. Not 3 TDs. But he's had big games. His pre-breakout-year stats are more impressive than Sidney Rice's. Even in his breakout year, Sidney Rice had 8 TDs - Britt has a chance for his breakout year to be more dominant than Rice's. Sidney Rice's QB situation might be no better than Britt's.There's two ways to screw up dynasty rankings. One is to react too much to what happened last week. That is what you are warning against. Another way to screw it up is to bank on stats from 2 or 3 years ago when everything changes so rapidly. Everyone laughed at selling Ocho for Austin early in his breakout last year, now it'd take about 3 1sts in order to even that trade out.Selling Rice, Ocho, Smith, Smith, Santana, or Holmes for Britt right now seem like easy trades. They seem like offers that would be quickly rejected. Am I wrong, or should I go out and start offering this where I don't own him?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Rotoworld is a good place for contract info. Bradshaw is a FA next year. Jacobs has 2 years left but at 4.5mil+ per year. Jacobs will be cut unless he restructures (likely cut). I think it's more likely Bradshaw is with the team next year than Jacobs.For 2010, Bradshaw is the lead back and Jacobs is the COP. It's hard to argue with that because Jacobs has been much more effective in the COP role than he has been for the past 1 or 2 years as a lead back. Jacobs is a fringe player right now - a better version of Barber - and I wouldn't give him any chance of being a top 15 back again.
There's been a war between skeptics and believers on Bradshaw as well. Search back to June. A lot of people thought Jacobs would still be the guy and have been reluctant to buy into Bradshaw. Even as a believer, I couldn't put Bradshaw over Charles, just because I don't see that ability to dominate and carry a fantasy team like Charles did last year. Also Charles has a 5th gear that Bradshaw lacks, and has generally been healthy.
Bradshaw might still be too low at 18, but not much. I don't think he's a RB1 for dynasty leagues.
squistion
Footballguy
Exactly. You have one poster here (shader) who believes that he is Top 15 and moving towards Top 10 and EBF spins that into people coming out of the woodwork in droves and pimping Britt as the next Dynasty star at WR.And I do specifically recall an extensive discussion in this thread regarding the merits of Britt in the last couple weeks (although that may have just been you and SSOG) so it is not like people have been lying in wait for one good game from Britt to discuss him.
As far as Britt is concerned. back in late May I had him at #22 WR in my Dynasty rankings on another site and at that time I said that "Kenny Britt showed that when he is on the field, he can just flat out play." I did note however that I felt his upside was limited with Vince Young as his QB and that may still be the case.
Prior to this week Britt had scored a TD four games in a row on limited production - inconclusive in itself (does the name Marc Boerigter ring a bell?) but an indication that maybe he was starting to live up to his potential. His game Sunday doesn't really prove anything either, but caused many of us who were lukewarm on him to say "Oh!" and reconsider that he may be a legitimate #1 WR (and I stress the word may as the evidence is far from conclusive).
At this point I would rank him bordering the Top 15. As far as the Britt/Holmes debate goes, I own Holmes in one league but would not trade him straight up for Britt. I still have concerns about the long term outlook with Young as QB, but perhaps this may be analagous to another WR from that franchise, Derrick Mason (not saying they have a similar skillset) who I initially thought was limited with Steve McNair as his QB, but made a good fantasy living for his owners over a period of years.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
A week or so ago there were people railing on SSOG for still having Britt below Hester. F&L chimed in with some Britt hype. There were people saying "top 15-20" pre-Eagles game.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think the Charles, Bradshaw comparison is valid, in terms of situation. I think they are pretty close in dynasty value as well. I have them both as low RB1/High RB2. If I am contending, I would give the nod to Bradshaw. If I am a couple years away, I give the nod to Charles. I think the biggest issue with Bradshaw is health, which is ironic, because he hasn't missed any time in the last two years. But Bradshaw has leg/feet issues that are life-long, as is my understanding. He is constantly on the injury report, and I question how long he will be able to play through pain, especially as he gets older. I read that he simply didn't practice for large portions of last season, the majority even.
Another thing that scares me about Bradshaw, is that he reminds me of MB3. His best asset is his ability to run hard, and aggressively. That can take a toll on your body, a body that isn't as big as it plays. Once a RB like Bradshaw loses even a hint of that burst, it is a drastic fall back down to earth, as MB3, Jacobs show. I don't know that he is talented enough to be a top 10 RB in the NFL for longer than a couple seasons, with his running style and injury concerns.
As far as Jones vs. Jacobs in their ability to keep the discussed two off of the field, I think they are fairly equal as well.
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Sebowski
Footballguy
I traded Britt right before the season started and am kicking myself now. I still like the trade as a whole, but it was my option to give Britt or MSW. I kept MSW because I thought he'd be more consistent/steady and that is what I wanted for my WR3. Britt was only a WR3 on the Titans at that time (and still?). I needed to start one of them. Anyway, this posts helped me deal, and I'd love to see your trade.
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