Dynasty Rankings (8 Viewers)

[Craig_MiamiFL]

One thing that some dynasty owners sometimes forgot to realize when valuing players is the age of the surrounding talent, not just the age of the actual player, even if the player is young. This why I am weary of Gronk, Hernandez, Graham, etc. with Brees and Brady getting older. And the same goes for Demaryius Thomas.

Do you tend to skip 4-5+ years of all players' careers with this thinking??

 

[Nucker101]

One thing that some dynasty owners sometimes forgot to realize when valuing players is the age of the surrounding talent, not just the age of the actual player, even if the player is young. This why I am weary of Gronk, Hernandez, Graham, etc. with Brees and Brady getting older. And the same goes for Demaryius Thomas.

Do you tend to skip 4-5+ years of all players' careers with this thinking??

Of course not, but I have to account for the very likely possibility that these players will regress as their stud QB's age and eventually retire.

 

[Donsmith753]

I still take Luck without hesitation. I can't speak for anyone else, but in general the "I know he's old, but I'll take the points now" line of thinking has been the precursor to some of my worst picks and trades in my dynasty leagues. Being risk-averse to the point of fault and waiting for every prospect to prove himself before you invest will often have you behind the curve in dynasty. Especially when you're talking about those rare once or twice per decade types who are hailed as truly special. There is risk with Luck, but it's offset by a massive upside. And while Brees is an established veteran, there's no guarantee that he has many (or any) elite seasons left. I just see taking Brees over Luck that as the kind of pick that you'll like for the first two years and then regret for a decade afterward. It's not a move I'd make myself or advocate for anyone else. I'm not interesting in arguing the point ad nauseam though. I've said what I wanted to say about it.

Funny that these two are the example being used. A team in my 16 team dynasty made the switch this offseason. He was almost a playoff team but was in an impossible division and in all honesty wasn't going to win a title in the next year or so.He traded Brees straight up for the 1.02 (Luck) and certainly hasn't regretted it yet. It was a ballsy move and he got some criticism at the time but his team looks set to be strong within 2 years.

 

[Kree]

One thing that some dynasty owners sometimes forgot to realize when valuing players is the age of the surrounding talent, not just the age of the actual player, even if the player is young. This why I am weary of Gronk, Hernandez, Graham, etc. with Brees and Brady getting older. And the same goes for Demaryius Thomas.

Do you tend to skip 4-5+ years of all players' careers with this thinking??

Of course not, but I have to account for the very likely possibility that these players will regress as their stud QB's age and eventually retire.

It's definitely a factor I put into play, but mainly only with menial talents for the most part.I think Wayne is a prime example of this coming into play actually - I know a lot had to do with age, but I think people just weren't comfortable with coping with Luck's 'growing pains' and didn't expect any wholesale success from Wayne this year. I saw him being sold for some ridiculously low values from teams that could have had a chance to win leagues. Fast forward to week 5, he's averaging a smidgen below 100 yards per game with healthy reception totals for PPR leagues. 9th in one of my PPR leagues on a per game basis, 10th in another which has a wacky scoring system and 11th in a standard league.That's not saying he will keep up this form, but there's something to be said about overrating the transition between other positions.

 

[Biabreakable]

I see Lucks value about the same as I had for Peyton Manning as rookie. Luck actually seems more mobile than Peyton ever was as well. Brees could have a career that lasts as long as Doug Flutie's but not likely at Brees levels we have seen in recent seasons. It might not be until 2015 or perhaps even later but Brees will decline at some point and his numbers will meet Luck's who will likely be improving over the same time frame. Luck just seems a lot more valuable than Brees from next year moving forward as I can see Luck as possibly competing with Brees pass attempts by then. Luck's value will not decay even if he has a bad season at some point while the value of Brees is already being seen by some as a short term solution. So less than it would be if Brees were just a couple years younger. I can see someone trading Luck for Aaron Rodgers straight up possibly but probobly not Drew Brees.

Brees is a guy I might look to be buying right now depending on the price. I have seen enough of Luck already to think he is going to be a great QB in the league as long as he stays healthy. I like that Luck has Wayne to work with. That will help him communicate better with the other WR as time goes on. Be able to tell those WR what Wayne would do and that sets a standard that Luck might not otherwise have working with lesser WR. I see Luck's development potential accelerated a bit by this.

 

[Underachievers]

I still take Luck without hesitation. I can't speak for anyone else, but in general the "I know he's old, but I'll take the points now" line of thinking has been the precursor to some of my worst picks and trades in my dynasty leagues. Being risk-averse to the point of fault and waiting for every prospect to prove himself before you invest will often have you behind the curve in dynasty. Especially when you're talking about those rare once or twice per decade types who are hailed as truly special.

There is risk with Luck, but it's offset by a massive upside. And while Brees is an established veteran, there's no guarantee that he has many (or any) elite seasons left. I just see taking Brees over Luck that as the kind of pick that you'll like for the first two years and then regret for a decade afterward. It's not a move I'd make myself or advocate for anyone else.

I'm not interesting in arguing the point ad nauseam though. I've said what I wanted to say about it.

Funny that these two are the example being used. A team in my 16 team dynasty made the switch this offseason. He was almost a playoff team but was in an impossible division and in all honesty wasn't going to win a title in the next year or so.He traded Brees straight up for the 1.02 (Luck) and certainly hasn't regretted it yet. It was a ballsy move and he got some criticism at the time but his team looks set to be strong within 2 years.

Love that move. Hell, we play to win the top prize, and if his chances of doing that were slim for the next couple seasons, that was a shark move imo.

 

[humpback]

I still take Luck without hesitation. I can't speak for anyone else, but in general the "I know he's old, but I'll take the points now" line of thinking has been the precursor to some of my worst picks and trades in my dynasty leagues. Being risk-averse to the point of fault and waiting for every prospect to prove himself before you invest will often have you behind the curve in dynasty. Especially when you're talking about those rare once or twice per decade types who are hailed as truly special.

There is risk with Luck, but it's offset by a massive upside. And while Brees is an established veteran, there's no guarantee that he has many (or any) elite seasons left. I just see taking Brees over Luck that as the kind of pick that you'll like for the first two years and then regret for a decade afterward. It's not a move I'd make myself or advocate for anyone else.

I'm not interesting in arguing the point ad nauseam though. I've said what I wanted to say about it.

Funny that these two are the example being used. A team in my 16 team dynasty made the switch this offseason. He was almost a playoff team but was in an impossible division and in all honesty wasn't going to win a title in the next year or so.He traded Brees straight up for the 1.02 (Luck) and certainly hasn't regretted it yet. It was a ballsy move and he got some criticism at the time but his team looks set to be strong within 2 years.

Love that move. Hell, we play to win the top prize, and if his chances of doing that were slim for the next couple seasons, that was a shark move imo.

Obviously it depends on the situation, but IMO many people write off their chances far too prematurely. If he's "almost" a playoff team in a 16-team league, I take that to mean that one small break can get him there. A lucky schedule, nabbing a guy like Morris late or off of waivers, etc. can be the difference between making and missing the playoffs, and we all know once you get there, anything can happen. There is so much luck involved, especially in head to head.I know it's only anecdotal, but in my leagues, I see the same teams "playing for the future", and those same teams generally end up drafting near the top year after year.

 

[SSOG]

Agreed. Rankings are done in a vacuum, but nobody plays in a vacuum. If you aren't winning soon, don't waste Brees's production. All he's doing for you is leaking value and weakening your future rookie firsts. If my window is open, though, I'm not giving up Brees. Luck will likely produce more career VBD than Brees, but there's more to it than just comparing VBD totals. VBD gets progressively more valuable the more of it you get- a 200 VBD season is worth more than two 100 VBD seasons, which are worth more than eight 25 VBD seasons. Also, VBD only really matters when your window is open. Tomlinson's 31 TD season did you no good if the rest of your team was dog food. If you trade a 200 VBD season when your window is closed for a 100 VBD season when your window is open, you come out way ahead, despite "losing" a ton of value on the trade.

With that in mind, Luck will almost certainly compile more VBD, but will he reach the heights that Brees will get me, or will he merely compile a string of very good seasons? And most importantly, will those seasons come during a window of contention? If I'm a contender now, I KNOW Brees is helping me win titles. I can't say the same for Luck. Maybe by the time he finally leaps to elite status, the rest of my team has regressed. Maybe not- maybe I'm still a contender and Luck is the piece that keeps my window open for a decade. Still, there are a lot of maybes there, a lot of additional risks and considerations getting priced into Luck's value that discount it relative to a Drew Brees.

 

[renesauz]

Agreed. Rankings are done in a vacuum, but nobody plays in a vacuum. If you aren't winning soon, don't waste Brees's production. All he's doing for you is leaking value and weakening your future rookie firsts. If my window is open, though, I'm not giving up Brees. Luck will likely produce more career VBD than Brees, but there's more to it than just comparing VBD totals. VBD gets progressively more valuable the more of it you get- a 200 VBD season is worth more than two 100 VBD seasons, which are worth more than eight 25 VBD seasons. Also, VBD only really matters when your window is open. Tomlinson's 31 TD season did you no good if the rest of your team was dog food. If you trade a 200 VBD season when your window is closed for a 100 VBD season when your window is open, you come out way ahead, despite "losing" a ton of value on the trade.With that in mind, Luck will almost certainly compile more VBD, but will he reach the heights that Brees will get me, or will he merely compile a string of very good seasons? And most importantly, will those seasons come during a window of contention? If I'm a contender now, I KNOW Brees is helping me win titles. I can't say the same for Luck. Maybe by the time he finally leaps to elite status, the rest of my team has regressed. Maybe not- maybe I'm still a contender and Luck is the piece that keeps my window open for a decade. Still, there are a lot of maybes there, a lot of additional risks and considerations getting priced into Luck's value that discount it relative to a Drew Brees.

Like I said earlier...there is no single answer, and it's virtually impossible to apply any single set of dynasty rankings to every team.

 

[Tau837]

Agreed. Rankings are done in a vacuum, but nobody plays in a vacuum. If you aren't winning soon, don't waste Brees's production. All he's doing for you is leaking value and weakening your future rookie firsts. If my window is open, though, I'm not giving up Brees. Luck will likely produce more career VBD than Brees, but there's more to it than just comparing VBD totals. VBD gets progressively more valuable the more of it you get- a 200 VBD season is worth more than two 100 VBD seasons, which are worth more than eight 25 VBD seasons. Also, VBD only really matters when your window is open. Tomlinson's 31 TD season did you no good if the rest of your team was dog food. If you trade a 200 VBD season when your window is closed for a 100 VBD season when your window is open, you come out way ahead, despite "losing" a ton of value on the trade.

With that in mind, Luck will almost certainly compile more VBD, but will he reach the heights that Brees will get me, or will he merely compile a string of very good seasons? And most importantly, will those seasons come during a window of contention? If I'm a contender now, I KNOW Brees is helping me win titles. I can't say the same for Luck. Maybe by the time he finally leaps to elite status, the rest of my team has regressed. Maybe not- maybe I'm still a contender and Luck is the piece that keeps my window open for a decade. Still, there are a lot of maybes there, a lot of additional risks and considerations getting priced into Luck's value that discount it relative to a Drew Brees.

Especially the bolded.

 

[bweiser]

Thoughts on Kendall Wright after the past few weeks?

 

[Cato]

Agreed. Rankings are done in a vacuum, but nobody plays in a vacuum. If you aren't winning soon, don't waste Brees's production. All he's doing for you is leaking value and weakening your future rookie firsts. If my window is open, though, I'm not giving up Brees. Luck will likely produce more career VBD than Brees, but there's more to it than just comparing VBD totals. VBD gets progressively more valuable the more of it you get- a 200 VBD season is worth more than two 100 VBD seasons, which are worth more than eight 25 VBD seasons. Also, VBD only really matters when your window is open. Tomlinson's 31 TD season did you no good if the rest of your team was dog food. If you trade a 200 VBD season when your window is closed for a 100 VBD season when your window is open, you come out way ahead, despite "losing" a ton of value on the trade.With that in mind, Luck will almost certainly compile more VBD, but will he reach the heights that Brees will get me, or will he merely compile a string of very good seasons? And most importantly, will those seasons come during a window of contention? If I'm a contender now, I KNOW Brees is helping me win titles. I can't say the same for Luck. Maybe by the time he finally leaps to elite status, the rest of my team has regressed. Maybe not- maybe I'm still a contender and Luck is the piece that keeps my window open for a decade. Still, there are a lot of maybes there, a lot of additional risks and considerations getting priced into Luck's value that discount it relative to a Drew Brees.

Like I said earlier...there is no single answer, and it's virtually impossible to apply any single set of dynasty rankings to every team.

I like this thought process, it's not so much about how each dynasty stock is performing, it's also about your team's dynasty investment portfolio. Or roster congruence, I think was the term someone used.

 

[EBF]

Today's game shows why Demaryius Thomas is on my "untradeable" list along with names like Trent Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Graham, and Andrew Luck. The guy is uncoverable because of his height/strength/speed/agility combination. Not exactly the same player as Terrell Owens, but produces the same results. I have him right up there with Green and Julio behind Calvin. I think he might actually be better than those guys, and he's not significantly older. Only reason for pause is his history of injuries.

 

[Concept Coop]

The problem is that even prospects that "simply can't fail" simply can, in fact, fail. Check out Reggie Bush. Or Benson, Brown, and Williams. Or Braylon Edwards, Charles Rodgers, Peter Warrick. Sam Bradford, Tim Couch. Ryan Leaf. Robert Gallery. Glenn Dorsey. Courtney Brown, LaVar Arrington. David Terrell, Roy Williams (WR version), Mike Williams (OL version). I'm sure there are a lot of other names that aren't immediately coming to mind. A surprisingly high number of "can't miss prospects" can, and do, wind up missing.

I wouldn't say Bush has been a bust. Minor disappointment, but not a bust. He's actually been a key contributor for a ppr dynasty team of mine that's made the playoffs for something like 5 years in a row. And he's still going strong in FF and NFL terms. Brown/Benson/Williams were not can't-miss prospects. Anyone who touted them as such was way off base. That's not just hindsight speaking. They all had warts. The 2005 draft was soft. That's how a guy like Braylon (who couldn't leave after his junior year because he would've been the 4th WR drafted) ended up as a top 3 pick. Just a soft group all the way around. Alex Smith. Ronnie Brown. Braylon Edwards. Not a can't-miss prospect in the bunch. There is a difference between guys like Luck and Richardson, who would be the first player picked at their position in any draft, and guys like Smith and Brown, who just happened to be the first player picked in their particular draft. This is a very important distinction and it's usually pretty clear if you watch football and follow the draft closely. Calvin Johnson was a can't-miss prospect. Keenan Allen...not so much. It's a moot point because the risk of busting is offset and then some by the potential for a longer career. Drew Brees is almost 11 years older than Andrew Luck. 11 of his NFL seasons are done and gone. Luck has his whole career ahead of him. If we expect Brees to play for another 3-5 years and Luck to play for another 8-15 years, then Luck only needs something like a 50% chance of becoming a superstar to have more career value than Brees. This is an oversimplification of the math, but the general idea holds. And if Luck has closer to a 65-75% chance of reaching that level (which I think he does), he suddenly looks a lot more valuable than Brees (which I think he is).

"Minor disappointment"? Bush was being drafted with the first overall pick in startups before he'd ever played a down. He's finished 17th, 24th, 35th, 33rd, 62nd, and 13th in his six seasons so far. Bush has been a major disappointment. And I'm fine if you want to say guys like Brown, Benson, Williams, and Edwards weren't "can't miss", but no amount of spin will hide the fact that any list of truly, absolutely, positively strictest-definition "can't miss prospects" will include Charles Rodgers, Glenn Dorsey, Robert Gallery, LaVar Arrington, probably Peter Warrick... Lots of guys who missed, some spectacularly.I agree with your general point, though- if Luck has a 50% chance of becoming Brees, and twice the expected career remaining, then the EVs should be the same. I put Luck's chances of becoming a fantastic QB at higher than 50%... But his chances of becoming Drew Brees? Drew Brees has finished in the top 10 in overall VBD 4 times in the last 6 years. Not top 10 at QB, top 10 across all positions. In order for Luck to reach Drew Brees's production value, it won't be enough for him to become a phenomenal QB. He'll need to become one of the top 10-20 QBs in NFL history. I'd put his chances there at considerably below 50%. There's a large window between "awesome QB" and "fantasy uberstud". If Luck is the next Steve Young, trading Brees for him would be a coup. If he's the next Philip Rivers... yeah, not so much. If you would be willing to go to Vegas today and put $1000 on Luck to make the Hall of Fame with even odds, then sure, trade Brees for him. Otherwise... well, I'd still rather have Brees. Next year the calculus might be different. Two years from now it will certainly be different. Today? Brees.Another thing to consider is the advances in modern medicine. 30 years ago, an ACL tear was a career ender. 10 years ago, it was 12 months to return to the field and 24 to be productive. Today, we see guys like Peterson and Welker make a mockery of that timeline. Based on historical precedent, Brees might be nearing the end... but how long is historical precedent going to hold up? If Brees falls off the cliff at 37, Luck looks much more appealing. If Brees hangs on until 41, though? His best trait, his accuracy, is one that should be relatively impervious to Father Time's ravages. Is playing and performing into his 40s really that far-fetched?

Luck has much more than twice the career remaining, however. He is 10 years younger than Brees. It is very reasonable to presume you get an extra decade of production. Andrew Luck is following up the best rookie season ever, and - at least passing wise - is on pace to blow it out of the water. On top of that, his rushing totals are likely to quadruple that of Brees' best season. Andrew Luck is averaging 25.5/game. To put that in perspective, he is on pace for 408. Number of seasons in which Drew Brees scored more: One. Andrew Luck could simply maintain what he is doing now, and be worth much more - from here on out - than Drew Brees.

 

[Concept Coop]

A few random thoughts from the weekend:

1. Alfred Morris is legit, people. Top 15, in standard formats, is conservative for a 23 year old doing what he is doing. I just acquired CJ Spiller in a non-PPR format, and would gladly move him for Morris; sadly, his owner feels as I do.

2. David Wilson will (IMO) be a 8-10 touch player by the end of the season. Get him now.

3. Bay Bay Thomas (Props, EBF) is approaching the top 5 in my rankings.

4. Victor Cruz - it feels good to be a Cruz owner. Top 5 in receptions, TDs, and yardage. After Calvin, Julio, and A.J, it's Cruz for me.

5. Jamaal Charles looks as good as he ever has. This weekend was a special weekend for him, but it was subtle, aside from the yardage. The Cheifs were very close to beating a team MUCH better than them, in every other aspect, despite turning the ball over, thanks to one man. It was the best sloppy 9-6 game I have watched in a while, thanks to the same guy.

6. Rashard Mendehall looked very solid. The writing is on the wall, and Mednenhall will have the full workload very soon. The staff is giddy about getting him back, and with good reason.

7. Andrew Luck. Part of me wanted him to fail because it was so annoying to hear him worshiped for 2 years straight. They were all right. I would be shocked if he doesn't win an MVP in his career, save injury. Shocked.

8. We have to lower our expectations of Cam Newton this season. He will still have plenty of 28 point explosions, but the talent around him simply isn't there. A great time to buy low in dynasty formats. Still my #1 dynasty QB.

 

[renesauz]

I must admit to having missed it on Morris.

Newton is killing me this year in a couple of leagues...cost me 3 wins this week alone. His accuracy was HORRIBLE this week.

Stick a fork in Michael Vick. He used to simply take off and run behind a weak O-line. Now, he's just getting pummeled and making poor decisions. He can still produce with good O-line play, but he's not gonna get that this year in Philly, and he may not get another real shot.

Alex Smith. When are we going to give this guy his due? He's looked terrific.

Kolb.

Andrew Luck. He's even better than I thought...too bad I don't own him anywhere.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

3. Bay Bay Thomas 5. Jamaal Charles 6. Rashard Mendehall

I own Thomas in nine of my dynasty leagues and have had a bunch of good/serious offers in the last few weeks, so was looking at who I'd take for him in terms of other WRs. Basically I wouldn't. It's Calvin, Thomas and Fitz 1-2-3 for me. I was wrong about A Green and J Jones, but I still wouldn't take either one for Thomas.And all three players are great examples of why you buy good players when they're hurt. Especially now that medical science has made ACLs fairly routine with a sub-12 month recovery time. People are still stuck in 2000 on these injuries.

 

[Concept Coop]

I must admit to having missed it on Morris. Newton is killing me this year in a couple of leagues...cost me 3 wins this week alone. His accuracy was HORRIBLE this week.Stick a fork in Michael Vick. He used to simply take off and run behind a weak O-line. Now, he's just getting pummeled and making poor decisions. He can still produce with good O-line play, but he's not gonna get that this year in Philly, and he may not get another real shot.Alex Smith. When are we going to give this guy his due? He's looked terrific.Kolb. Andrew Luck. He's even better than I thought...too bad I don't own him anywhere.

I have a hard time knocking Cam too much for yesterday's game. He is not a great NFL QB yet, but he wasn't put in a position to win that game, without a great performance. The accuracy was overplayed on the missed TD pass. The replays clearly show a guy that the accouncer did not account for, when ripping into Cam. It was a very difficult throw. Aside from that one throw, he was hit so often, and had to adjust his motion so often, again, it's hard to take much from it.

 

[renesauz]

I have a hard time knocking Cam too much for yesterday's game. He is not a great NFL QB yet, but he wasn't put in a position to win that game, without a great performance. The accuracy was overplayed on the missed TD pass. The replays clearly show a guy that the accouncer did not account for, when ripping into Cam. It was a very difficult throw. Aside from that one throw, he was hit so often, and had to adjust his motion so often, again, it's hard to take much from it.

He was like 9 for 25 at some point. That's beyond bad. People have destroyed Kolb's accuracy throwing for 60% behind a bad line....Newton certainly shouldn't get a pass for 40%.FWIW...I'm not giving up on him...he's still easily top 10 in dynasty, but my expectations for this season were too high, and they might cost me dearly in at least 1 league.

 

[Concept Coop]

I have a hard time knocking Cam too much for yesterday's game. He is not a great NFL QB yet, but he wasn't put in a position to win that game, without a great performance. The accuracy was overplayed on the missed TD pass. The replays clearly show a guy that the accouncer did not account for, when ripping into Cam. It was a very difficult throw. Aside from that one throw, he was hit so often, and had to adjust his motion so often, again, it's hard to take much from it.

He was like 9 for 25 at some point. That's beyond bad. People have destroyed Kolb's accuracy throwing for 60% behind a bad line....Newton certainly shouldn't get a pass for 40%.FWIW...I'm not giving up on him...he's still easily top 10 in dynasty, but my expectations for this season were too high, and they might cost me dearly in at least 1 league.

Smith dropped 3 balls, himself, the refs missed two PI calls, and he was hit at least 10 times. His completion % was great, going into yesterday's game. I am not saying give him a pass - it shows that he is not a great NFL QB yet - just keep it in perspective. Without watching the game, and simply looking at the stats, it looks much worse that it was, from him.

 

[MAC_32]

@sidelinescouts

Teams should draft quarterbacks every year until they find the one guy who doesn't need surrounding talent. Those are the winners.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

@sidelinescouts Teams should draft quarterbacks every year until they find the one guy who doesn't need surrounding talent. Those are the winners.

Not sure how serious this is, but I mostly agree with it. Most NFL schemes can get a guy open. It may not be for a 50 yard TD or a 5 yard catch and 30 yard run when you're throwing to poor WRs, but a good QB can move the ball with almost any set of WRs if he isn't being hit every time he drops back.That's one of the reasons I liked what I saw from Foles. He put up completion %s over 60 in all three pre-season games and was throwing to nobodies for the most part. Being able to find the guy who's open due to the defensive alignment and throwing the ball to him accurately are the most important qualities in a QB IMO.

 

[MAC_32]

@sidelinescouts Teams should draft quarterbacks every year until they find the one guy who doesn't need surrounding talent. Those are the winners.

Not sure how serious this is, but I mostly agree with it. Most NFL schemes can get a guy open. It may not be for a 50 yard TD or a 5 yard catch and 30 yard run when you're throwing to poor WRs, but a good QB can move the ball with almost any set of WRs if he isn't being hit every time he drops back.

It's not a be-all, end-all but I am buying more and more into it.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

@sidelinescouts Teams should draft quarterbacks every year until they find the one guy who doesn't need surrounding talent. Those are the winners.

Not sure how serious this is, but I mostly agree with it. Most NFL schemes can get a guy open. It may not be for a 50 yard TD or a 5 yard catch and 30 yard run when you're throwing to poor WRs, but a good QB can move the ball with almost any set of WRs if he isn't being hit every time he drops back.

It's not a be-all, end-all but I am buying more and more into it.

I should have qualified that to say 'any good QB with pro-caliber physical tools'. You don't have to have a huge arm, but you do have to be able to make the throws and either be able to avoid big hits or be big enough not get killed when it happens.

 

[Concept Coop]

Almost forgot:

Golden Tate has been playing very well. He was missed on another TD yesterday.

His numbers will be weaker than his play warrants, because of how SEA is using Wilson. But I expect his numbers to increase as the QB production increases in SEA.

I had given up on him, and he is proving me wrong. He is a playmaker this season.

 

[Tau837]

We have to lower our expectations of Cam Newton this season. He will still have plenty of 28 point explosions, but the talent around him simply isn't there. A great time to buy low in dynasty formats. Still my #1 dynasty QB.

What talent is missing? And how is it different/worse than last year?

 

[MAC_32]

We have to lower our expectations of Cam Newton this season. He will still have plenty of 28 point explosions, but the talent around him simply isn't there. A great time to buy low in dynasty formats. Still my #1 dynasty QB.

What talent is missing? And how is it different/worse than last year?

It's excuse making for inferior QB's, glad I avoided Cam in redrafts and despite the injury yesterday am very encouraged with RG3 and Luck heading my dyno's going forward.

 

[Concept Coop]

We have to lower our expectations of Cam Newton this season. He will still have plenty of 28 point explosions, but the talent around him simply isn't there. A great time to buy low in dynasty formats. Still my #1 dynasty QB.

What talent is missing? And how is it different/worse than last year?

They can't run the ball consistantly, their defense is awful, and he is getting hit much more than he did last season. It is a very bad football team.They led the NFL in rushing last year - that is the biggest difference.

 

[Concept Coop]

We have to lower our expectations of Cam Newton this season. He will still have plenty of 28 point explosions, but the talent around him simply isn't there. A great time to buy low in dynasty formats. Still my #1 dynasty QB.

What talent is missing? And how is it different/worse than last year?

It's excuse making for inferior QB's, glad I avoided Cam in redrafts and despite the injury yesterday am very encouraged with RG3 and Luck heading my dyno's going forward.

I'm just sharing my opinions on players. No need for the jabs - I'm not making excuses. He is averaging two 2TDs a game over his first 1.3 seasons. His production and FPs speak for themselves.It's not a your team vs. my team conversation. We're not in any leagues together.

 

[MAC_32]

No need for the jabs - I'm not making excuses.

I think you are and it's something that I've started to believe recently that I didn't before. Good QB's find ways to win despite their surroundings, bad ones don't. It's far too early to say which side of the fence Cam is on, but clearly he's not producing the way he did last year - year 2 is supposed to be the development year and he's flat lining/regressing instead.

 

[Concept Coop]

No need for the jabs - I'm not making excuses.

I think you are and it's something that I've started to believe recently that I didn't before. Good QB's find ways to win despite their surroundings, bad ones don't. It's far too early to say which side of the fence Cam is on, but clearly he's not producing the way he did last year - year 2 is supposed to be the development year and he's flat lining/regressing instead.

Then what is your point?ETA: Nevermind. We should move on. I don't see this conversation being productive. Enjoy Luck/RG3.

 

[MAC_32]

No need for the jabs - I'm not making excuses.

I think you are and it's something that I've started to believe recently that I didn't before. Good QB's find ways to win despite their surroundings, bad ones don't. It's far too early to say which side of the fence Cam is on, but clearly he's not producing the way he did last year - year 2 is supposed to be the development year and he's flat lining/regressing instead.

Then what is your point?Nevermind. We should move on. I don't see this conversation being productive. Enjoy Luck/RG3.

If you aren't concerned that Cam is not good enough (ugh, double negatives) to make the team around him good enough to start winning more games then you have blinders on. Since my take on him has been negative from the beginning it shouldn't be a surprise that it's negative now, I wouldn't expect optimists to pull a 180 but I would think warning lights are going off at the very least.

 

[Concept Coop]

No need for the jabs - I'm not making excuses.

I think you are and it's something that I've started to believe recently that I didn't before. Good QB's find ways to win despite their surroundings, bad ones don't. It's far too early to say which side of the fence Cam is on, but clearly he's not producing the way he did last year - year 2 is supposed to be the development year and he's flat lining/regressing instead.

Then what is your point?Nevermind. We should move on. I don't see this conversation being productive. Enjoy Luck/RG3.

If you aren't concerned that Cam is not good enough (ugh, double negatives) to make the team around him good enough to start winning more games then you have blinders on. Since my take on him has been negative from the beginning it shouldn't be a surprise that it's negative now, I wouldn't expect optimists to pull a 180 but I would think warning lights are going off at the very least.

Look - you're not being productive. Stop making it a personal issue. Our opinions are different. Guess what?--that's OK. No need to claim I have blinders or am making excuses. I am simply sharing my opinion on a guy whose snaps I have watched all of this year.If that is all you plan to do - let's move on, please. The thread has been awesome and I won't contribute to it not being so now.

 

[MAC_32]

Look - you're not being productive.

 

[Concept Coop]

Anyone concerned about Matthews? They were using Ronnie Freaking Brown when the game was on the line last night. I don't own him, but am worried, as a guy who liked him going into this season.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Look - you're not being productive.

You aren't. You are no longer debating skill-sets, you're accusing others of the reasoning behind their opinions. Thats not productive. Readers of this thread can decide for themselves why someone might feel the way they do, and whose player evaluation to trust, etc. It creates great conversation, until someone just can't deal with the fact that people feel differently. To assume that he's "making excuses" says that you think that your opinion has more weight. So his must be biased, or something. Just leave it. It contaminates a great thread.

 

[MAC_32]

Anyone concerned about Matthews? They were using Ronnie Freaking Brown when the game was on the line last night. I don't own him, but am worried, as a guy who liked him going into this season.

The offense was a finely tuned machine when Mathews was in and the refs weren't botching calls, it was more ugly than not when Battle and Brown were in. Wouldn't expect any less from a Norv coached team.

 

[MAC_32]

Look - you're not being productive.

You aren't. You are no longer debating skill-sets, you're accusing others of the reasoning behind their opinions. Thats not productive. Readers of this thread can decide for themselves why someone might feel the way they do, and whose player evaluation to trust, etc. It creates great conversation, until someone just can't deal with the fact that people feel differently. To assume that he's "making excuses" says that you think that your opinion has more weight. So his must be biased, or something. Just leave it. It contaminates a great thread.

My whole point was I think the 'he needs better talent around him' argument is becoming more and more bunk with each passing year, either I wrote it poorly or you misread it - probably both.

 

[Concept Coop]

Anyone concerned about Matthews? They were using Ronnie Freaking Brown when the game was on the line last night. I don't own him, but am worried, as a guy who liked him going into this season.

The offense was a finely tuned machine when Mathews was in and the refs weren't botching calls, it was more ugly than not when Battle and Brown were in. Wouldn't expect any less from a Norv coached team.

He is a much more productive runner than the other two, so I think we should expect that. But if he isn't trusted, that can cut into is fantasy points. I am not saying we should downgrade him right now, but I am taking notice and am concerned. Esepcially when it seems that they don't trust him in the 2 minute offense - is it pass protection? Do they worry he'll fumble? Is he not where he should be when he runs routes?

 

[MAC_32]

Anyone concerned about Matthews? They were using Ronnie Freaking Brown when the game was on the line last night. I don't own him, but am worried, as a guy who liked him going into this season.

The offense was a finely tuned machine when Mathews was in and the refs weren't botching calls, it was more ugly than not when Battle and Brown were in. Wouldn't expect any less from a Norv coached team.

He is a much more productive runner than the other two, so I think we should expect that. But if he isn't trusted, that can cut into is fantasy points. I am not saying we should downgrade him right now, but I am taking notice and am concerned. Esepcially when it seems that they don't trust him in the 2 minute offense - is it pass protection? Do they worry he'll fumble? Is he not where he should be when he runs routes?

I don't think it's the last one and if it is one of the first two I hope it's the first, he's never going to solve his fumbling issues unless he's given the rope to hang himself.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

No need for the jabs - I'm not making excuses.

I think you are and it's something that I've started to believe recently that I didn't before. Good QB's find ways to win despite their surroundings, bad ones don't. It's far too early to say which side of the fence Cam is on, but clearly he's not producing the way he did last year - year 2 is supposed to be the development year and he's flat lining/regressing instead.

I don't really agree with the bolded. Plenty of QBs, especially young ones, have put up considerably worse stats than they did in the year prior. I'm guessing it's pretty rare for a QB to put up increasingly better stats in each of his first ~5 odd years, and I wouldn't assume a player playing worse in his 2nd year is an automatic sign that a player is doomed for failure. I don't see how one would be able to come to the conclusion that a player is regressing when it could simply be standard variance, or perhaps some combination of the two. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, for example, both played considerably worse in their 2nd years compared to their first, and they both turned out OK.

 

[Concept Coop]

No need for the jabs - I'm not making excuses.

I think you are and it's something that I've started to believe recently that I didn't before. Good QB's find ways to win despite their surroundings, bad ones don't. It's far too early to say which side of the fence Cam is on, but clearly he's not producing the way he did last year - year 2 is supposed to be the development year and he's flat lining/regressing instead.

I don't really agree with the bolded. Plenty of QBs, especially young ones, have put up considerably worse stats than they did in the year prior. I'm guessing it's pretty rare for a QB to put up increasingly better stats in each of his first ~5 odd years, and I wouldn't assume a player playing worse in his 2nd year is an automatic sign that a player is doomed for failure. I don't see how one would be able to come to the conclusion that a player is regressing when it could simply be standard variance, or perhaps some combination of the two. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, for example, both played considerably worse in their 2nd years compared to their first, and they both turned out OK.

Above and beyond this, his numbers were better going into yesterday's game - Comp%, YPC, QBR, etc. It is too early, even, to say he has taken a step back, in my opinion. It looks like the same guy to me - he is just getting less from his running game, and not yet ready to take on all that would be required for his team to win without it.

 

[renesauz]

Anyone concerned about Matthews? They were using Ronnie Freaking Brown when the game was on the line last night. I don't own him, but am worried, as a guy who liked him going into this season.

The offense was a finely tuned machine when Mathews was in and the refs weren't botching calls, it was more ugly than not when Battle and Brown were in. Wouldn't expect any less from a Norv coached team.

He is a much more productive runner than the other two, so I think we should expect that. But if he isn't trusted, that can cut into is fantasy points. I am not saying we should downgrade him right now, but I am taking notice and am concerned. Esepcially when it seems that they don't trust him in the 2 minute offense - is it pass protection? Do they worry he'll fumble? Is he not where he should be when he runs routes?

Somebody pointed out last night that Brown has been utilized in the 2 minute drill since game 1 of the preseason. I wouldn't be too worried about that at this point as Brown is a very experienced vet. Of more concern is Norv's refusal to feature the run more prominantly when it's obviously working.

 

[EBF]

Even after yesterday's debacle Cam is still leading the NFL in yards per attempt. I wouldn't panic just yet.

I'm as big of a Luck fan as anyone, but I expect his FF numbers to drop a bit this season. Part of the reason why his production looks so good is because he's throwing the ball a ton. He's on pace for 708 passing attempts. I don't think he can sustain that over a full season. In order to maintain his current FF production, he will have to become more efficient.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm as big of a Luck fan as anyone, but I expect his FF numbers to drop a bit this season. Part of the reason why his production looks so good is because he's throwing the ball a ton. He's on pace for 708 passing attempts. I don't think he can sustain that over a full season. In order to maintain his current FF production, he will have to become more efficient.

I think so too. He is on pace for 4,800/28. I would think 4,200/24 is a safer bet.That said: the kid is special.

 

[MAC_32]

No need for the jabs - I'm not making excuses.

I think you are and it's something that I've started to believe recently that I didn't before. Good QB's find ways to win despite their surroundings, bad ones don't. It's far too early to say which side of the fence Cam is on, but clearly he's not producing the way he did last year - year 2 is supposed to be the development year and he's flat lining/regressing instead.

I don't really agree with the bolded. Plenty of QBs, especially young ones, have put up considerably worse stats than they did in the year prior. I'm guessing it's pretty rare for a QB to put up increasingly better stats in each of his first ~5 odd years, and I wouldn't assume a player playing worse in his 2nd year is an automatic sign that a player is doomed for failure. I don't see how one would be able to come to the conclusion that a player is regressing when it could simply be standard variance, or perhaps some combination of the two. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, for example, both played considerably worse in their 2nd years compared to their first, and they both turned out OK.

Much less to do with stats, much more to do with everything else. Stats are a piece, but they don't tell the whole story. I don't expect every QB to follow a carbon copy path to success, but when you see someone veering too far from it and you add mental and maturity issues to it (issues that were reasonably apparent pre-draft) warning signals have to go up.Again, I don't expect Cam buyers to side with me, but when his biggest issues coming into the league are head and maturity related a month like this one HAS to be at least somewhat alarming. Not press the panic button, sell him for whatever you can alarming, but - he really needs to get his head back on straight over the bye alarming. I made the blinders comment because if you aren't concerned then that's where I think you are, la la land not seeing the potential for crash and burn staring right at you. When people with his past fail they usually fail epically.

 

[DexterDew]

I thought the thing that would hold Luck back this year was lack of talent in the skill position (hence drafting TEs, RB and WR), but Wayne has really impressed me. IND cannot run the ball, so they will be forced to throw... likely play from behind because of a subpar DEF. Luck will be a mid-low end QB1 THIS season. Since this is a Dynasty thread, he is Top 3 for me with RG3 and Rodgers.

I put too much stock into how QBs perform when they get hit or are under constant duress. Cam has not passed that eyeball test yet. If you are going to have poor body language (a la Eli) you will have to produce to gain your team's trust (a la Eli)

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Cam Newton's 23 and this is his second year - I'd love for someone to show me a QB that didn't have some inconsistent stretches over the first 20 games of their career. He's surrounded by above average skill position talent, but the line play and play calling have been bottom of the league style bad this year. Moving him down at this point is pretty knee-jerk IMO. Even if he struggles for the rest of the year (and even struggling he's a QB1 thus far in most leagues), that probably represents 10% or less of his total remaining value.

 

[MAC_32]

Cam Newton's 23 and this is his second year - I'd love for someone to show me a QB that didn't have some inconsistent stretches over the first 20 games of their career. He's surrounded by above average skill position talent, but the line play and play calling have been bottom of the league style bad this year. Moving him down at this point is pretty knee-jerk IMO. Even if he struggles for the rest of the year (and even struggling he's a QB1 thus far in most leagues), that probably represents 10% or less of his total remaining value.

You guys keep arguing points I'm not making, I'm not talking about his raw play on the field - I'm talking about what's between his ears. It's why I never wanted him in the first place, he said the right things this offseason which got my attention that he may be turning a corner but I also said he won't change my opinion until he steps up under adverse conditions and under early season adversity he has handled it terribly, which is what I thought would happen from the beginning.He needs to really take a week away from the game over his bye, clear his head, and come back after the bye fresh and forget the first 5 weeks ever happened. Problem is his types too often revert back to old habits, we'll see if he's the minority that takes this issues by the balls and overcomes them or if he caves under the pressure around him.

 

[Concept Coop]

Much less to do with stats, much more to do with everything else. Stats are a piece, but they don't tell the whole story. I don't expect every QB to follow a carbon copy path to success, but when you see someone veering too far from it and you add mental and maturity issues to it (issues that were reasonably apparent pre-draft) warning signals have to go up.Again, I don't expect Cam buyers to side with me, but when his biggest issues coming into the league are head and maturity related a month like this one HAS to be at least somewhat alarming. Not press the panic button, sell him for whatever you can alarming, but - he really needs to get his head back on straight over the bye alarming. I made the blinders comment because if you aren't concerned then that's where I think you are, la la land not seeing the potential for crash and burn staring right at you. When people with his past fail they usually fail epically.

What are these head issues you mention? What is his "past"? Who are the people like him who "fail epically"?Again - enough with the "la la" land type comments. Lets just have a conversation about our opinions on the matter. You are not adding to your point by adding "if you don't agree..." to each point you make.