Dynasty Rankings (6 Viewers)

[travdogg]

3. I don't think Winslow is a fair comparison at all. Winslow was a unique talent at TE. Caddy was an overrated RB who never produced outside of the first month of his career. Winslow has 2 Top-6 finishes in the last three years. Caddy has one Top-20 finish in four years.

The bolded part isn't really true. Caddy finished his rookie year just as well as he started it. He carried several fantasy teams down the stretch, with 20+ point games in the fantasy playoffs(I know because he's the reason I didn't win that year) of course, that's not entirely relevant now. What is relevant is that Graham and Ward are nothing special, especially Graham(who I think is the 1 of the 2-2-1 plan.)Caddy isn't a great dynasty asset, but he could have some startable value this year. Worst case scenario is he's this year's Chris Perry, in which case there will likely be plenty of chances to sell him off to true believers. I'm not a true believer, but I'm a partial believer and I think Ward is an average talent who was carried by the Giants O-line and teams worn down by Brandon Jacobs. I think its very possible that Caddy is Tampa's best RB...not a guy to build around, but a solid bye week fill in guy. A RB4 perhaps with a little upside, which isn't bad for a guy who is on waiver wires in many dynasty leagues, or at least was until last week.

I do agree that the Winslow comparison was a very apples to oranges comparison. When healthy Winslow is as good as any TE in the NFL. Its not his fault Ken Dorsey and the Browns doctors ruined his 2008.

 

[SSOG]

The bolded part isn't really true. Caddy finished his rookie year just as well as he started it. He carried several fantasy teams down the stretch, with 20+ point games in the fantasy playoffs(I know because he's the reason I didn't win that year) of course, that's not entirely relevant now.

Caddy finished the season strong? If your definition of "finished the season strong" means "had one good game in somewhat close proximity to the end of the year", then sure. He carried several teams down the stretch? If your definition of "carried down the stretch" includes "scored 10 points or fewer four times in the last six weeks", then sure.This is yet another incredible example of the legend of Cadillac Williams being oh so incredibly much bigger than the reality of Cadillac Williams. In the fantasy playoffs in 2005 (weeks 14-16), Caddy scored 2.7 points, 22.0 points, and 8.1 points. His 14 carries for 23 yards, 3 receptions for 4 yards game in week 14 was particularly egregious, but his 22 carry for 81 yards (with no receptions) in the superbowl were also pretty bad.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Nobody is suggesting that Caddy is a good bet to be a top 10 FFB RB in the future.

...which, if you've followed F&L's philosophy over the years, makes him undesirable. He likes to swing for the fences and there's no room for a 27 year old back coming back from multiple knee injuries mired in a RBBC. While I get the usefulness of having a vet on the roster to cover some bye weeks in a pinch, he's not much of a dynasty commodity.

While I'm not arguing that he's a potential core player, I am arguing that he has a good possibility of being a top 30 RB in the near future, and THOSE GUYS always have value. If nothing else, as SALE value. It's a dynasty thread, and while centered around F&L's rankings, he's not the end-all-be-all. Just because he's not interested in rostering a guy with decent odds of being productive and valuable because he's not likely to be a top 10 at his position is absurd. I don't think that's even what F&L is saying, but rather that he doesn't like the risk vs the reward. I do, and am trying to highlight his potential reward vs the next-to-nothing risk he presents. I'd rather roster him than Gartrell Johnson, Cedric Peerman or even Andre Brown at this point.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Caddy isn't a great dynasty asset, but he could have some startable value this year. Worst case scenario is he's this year's Chris Perry, in which case there will likely be plenty of chances to sell him off to true believers.

This is exactly what I'm getting at, and I was one of those guys who landed Perry cheap, then sold him for a late '09 1st round pick once he got the "starting job." I believe Williams is better than Perry, and on a much better team than the '08 Bengals. He could potentially land you a mid-1st round pick if he plays a couple good games in a row, or is the unquestioned starter going into 2010.

 

[travdogg]

The bolded part isn't really true. Caddy finished his rookie year just as well as he started it. He carried several fantasy teams down the stretch, with 20+ point games in the fantasy playoffs(I know because he's the reason I didn't win that year) of course, that's not entirely relevant now.

Caddy finished the season strong? If your definition of "finished the season strong" means "had one good game in somewhat close proximity to the end of the year", then sure. He carried several teams down the stretch? If your definition of "carried down the stretch" includes "scored 10 points or fewer four times in the last six weeks", then sure.This is yet another incredible example of the legend of Cadillac Williams being oh so incredibly much bigger than the reality of Cadillac Williams. In the fantasy playoffs in 2005 (weeks 14-16), Caddy scored 2.7 points, 22.0 points, and 8.1 points. His 14 carries for 23 yards, 3 receptions for 4 yards game in week 14 was particularly egregious, but his 22 carry for 81 yards (with no receptions) in the superbowl were also pretty bad.

Those stats aren't right.Week 11=18 pointsWeek 12=8 pointsWeek 13=9 pointsWeek 14=23 pointsWeek 15=2 pointsWeek 16=22 pointsWeek 17=8 pointsOutside of Week 15 that's good production right there, and far better than anything Cedric Benson has ever done or will ever do in his career. I'm fully willing to admit that caddy may very well never reach those heights again either, just pointing out that he was a lot more valuable than people seem to remember. He wasn't just a 3-week wonder.

Caddy isn't a great dynasty asset, but he could have some startable value this year. Worst case scenario is he's this year's Chris Perry, in which case there will likely be plenty of chances to sell him off to true believers.

This is exactly what I'm getting at, and I was one of those guys who landed Perry cheap, then sold him for a late '09 1st round pick once he got the "starting job." I believe Williams is better than Perry, and on a much better team than the '08 Bengals. He could potentially land you a mid-1st round pick if he plays a couple good games in a row, or is the unquestioned starter going into 2010.

I was actually able to move Perry for DeSean Jackson after his 1st 100-yard game. There's value to be had in lesser RB's who can be easily hyped and become starters even if you don't personally believe in them. I feel that's Caddy's worst case this year, well outside of getting hurt tomorrow or something like that.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Nobody is suggesting that Caddy is a good bet to be a top 10 FFB RB in the future.

...which, if you've followed F&L's philosophy over the years, makes him undesirable. He likes to swing for the fences and there's no room for a 27 year old back coming back from multiple knee injuries mired in a RBBC. While I get the usefulness of having a vet on the roster to cover some bye weeks in a pinch, he's not much of a dynasty commodity.

While I'm not arguing that he's a potential core player, I am arguing that he has a good possibility of being a top 30 RB in the near future, and THOSE GUYS always have value. If nothing else, as SALE value. It's a dynasty thread, and while centered around F&L's rankings, he's not the end-all-be-all. Just because he's not interested in rostering a guy with decent odds of being productive and valuable because he's not likely to be a top 10 at his position is absurd. I don't think that's even what F&L is saying, but rather that he doesn't like the risk vs the reward. I do, and am trying to highlight his potential reward vs the next-to-nothing risk he presents. I'd rather roster him than Gartrell Johnson, Cedric Peerman or even Andre Brown at this point.

Yeah, I don't believe for a second that Caddy has "a good possibility of being a top 30 RB in the near future." So that's the crux of our problem.If you want to argue that Caddy has a good possibility of being a Top-45 or 50 RB this year with obvious health caveats, then sure. I'm on board. But that doesn't make him any different than any other RB on an NFL roster.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I was actually able to move Perry for DeSean Jackson after his 1st 100-yard game. There's value to be had in lesser RB's who can be easily hyped and become starters even if you don't personally believe in them. I feel that's Caddy's worst case this year, well outside of getting hurt tomorrow or something like that.

This just points to a difference in roster philosophy. I never pick up a player with the sole intention of jedi-mind tricking another owner into trading for him down the line. If I don't believe in a player (and I certainly never believed in Perry -- nor do I currently believe in Caddy), then he's wasting a roster spot that could be better used on a player I do believe in. Is it possible that I could flip Caddy to a gullible owner after his best game of the season? Sure. I just don't want to run my roster like that. Nor do I want to count on another owner in my league being that lame.

 

[stevegamer]

I agree Caddy could be a nice grab & flip. However, I'd argue that Benson has had similar production to Caddy, maybe better.

Benson:

2006 Games 11-16: 10.6, 12, 6.4, 11.3, 7.7, 14.1

2008 Games 7-16: 7.2, 8.9, 17.9, 13.9, 4.9, 3.8, 7.8, 19.1, 17.1, 21 (only games he started)

Those are number from a PPR league I'm in with points for carries factored out. The two weeks sub 5 in 2008 are vs. PIT & BAL.

I grabbed Benson when they signed him last year, hoping for some utility, and he helped me win my league.

The big factor is that Benson has shown that he can produce well enough to get you enough points to be a top-30 RB in Cincy, he did it last year, over the time he was the starter.

There's really no reason to think the stat lines he got last year are impossible for him to repeat. He's not a core player, but he could be useful, and not just as a chip to flip in a deal.

 

[renesauz]

I don't get this argument on Caddy. I mean....in the end most of us agree he's a low-risk, high reward, end of the roster player. Some belive he's a steal, other's believe he's a wasted pick and like other low risk high reward picks at that point instead. A select few think he'll shine just enough to flip him at a profit.

What exactly are we arguing about? The low risk part makes any real argument worthless.

ETA: Personally...I like the gamble, especially in my bigger roster leagues. In my smaller roster leagues...I've generally found guys I like a little better.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't get this argument on Caddy. I mean....in the end most of us agree he's a low-risk, high reward, end of the roster player. Some belive he's a steal, other's believe he's a wasted pick and like other low risk high reward picks at that point instead. A select few think he'll shine just enough to flip him at a profit.

What exactly are we arguing about? The low risk part makes any real argument worthless.

ETA: Personally...I like the gamble, especially in my bigger roster leagues. In my smaller roster leagues...I've generally found guys I like a little better.

We're debating value.Is he a Top-30 Dyansty league back? Or he is a Top-50 Dynasty league back? Or is he a Top-75 Dynasty league back. I have him at No. 62, and I expect any value to be of the fleeting variety.

If you're arguing that he's worth a roster spot, I think most people will agree with you. But is he worth a roster spot over James Davis? Over Mike Goodson or Javon Ringer? Over Chester Taylor? Over Jamal Lewis? Over Peyton Hills or Chris Brown? That's the debate.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I don't get this argument on Caddy. I mean....in the end most of us agree he's a low-risk, high reward, end of the roster player. Some belive he's a steal, other's believe he's a wasted pick and like other low risk high reward picks at that point instead. A select few think he'll shine just enough to flip him at a profit.

What exactly are we arguing about? The low risk part makes any real argument worthless.

ETA: Personally...I like the gamble, especially in my bigger roster leagues. In my smaller roster leagues...I've generally found guys I like a little better.

We're debating value.Is he a Top-30 Dyansty league back? Or he is a Top-50 Dynasty league back? Or is he a Top-75 Dynasty league back. I have him at No. 62, and I expect any value to be of the fleeting variety.

And I agree with him being a 50-70 range dynasty back right now. He comes cheaper than that, and IMO has a better chance to hit the top 30 over the next 12 months than most of those types. I'll take him over Ringer (50), Hightower (55), K.Jones (57), McClain, Gartrell, B.Scott or Fred (58-61), but we're talking about your RB dynasty value of 10-5. Not exactly earth-shattering. I wouldn't have grabbed him if I played in a 16 man roster, but by 22 or 24 (which I prefer so scrub teams can't keep filling competitive rosters with waivers week after week) he becomes a viable candidate. It's not like he'll be sitting on your roster after next year's rookie draft if he gets hurt again, or proves he's no better than Ward/Graham. If he's showing no promise for the next few months, he's M.Moore. Useful in PPR, but not valuable. Easily discarded for a 2nd round rookie pick. You don't need to sit on him for years like a rookie WR, or a M.Turner. If you're going to cull the end of your roster constantly anyways, I'd prefer to plug in guys that you know whether or not to cut bait sooner rather than later. If he's getting <30% of TB carries by week 3 or 4, I'd have no problem dropping him for a 2nd year WR who's targets have jumped up over the same time frame.

 

[valhallan]

F&L - are you still using your NFL playoffs league as a base for your rankings? If so, I have to assume a guy like Kevin Smith might be a little lower than he should be given you don't expect him to be in the playoffs anytime soon. Just curious. I'm always finding myself wondering if I need to take into account your NFL playoffs bias when reviewing the rankings. Keep up the fine work.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L - are you still using your NFL playoffs league as a base for your rankings? If so, I have to assume a guy like Kevin Smith might be a little lower than he should be given you don't expect him to be in the playoffs anytime soon. Just curious. I'm always finding myself wondering if I need to take into account your NFL playoffs bias when reviewing the rankings. Keep up the fine work.

No, I haven't been factoring in NFL playoffs since I started the blog almost 2 years ago. Smith may get another small bump soon.

 

[BeTheMatch]

F & L, any thought s on Jermichael Finley?

Thought he was a knucklehead last year. This year, I like him a lot. An awful lot. I think he's moving into the Top-20 as well.

On a semi-related note, I saw you have Greg Olsen as your No. 1 riser among TEs. I'd have to agree. I'm in a few dynasty leagues and we got to talking about if we were starting over a new dynasty league right now, who would you want at TE. The consensus was Witten, but I was surprised at how many people still would want at No. 2 Gonzo or Gates, who seems like an "old" 29 to me. I was having a hard time coming up with anyone other than Witten that I'd rather have over Olsen. He's coming off an OK year in what was just his second in the league and playing with a pretty bad QB. Throw in a young franchise QB like Cutler, and I could easily see Olsen turning into a Witten-like stud for years to come.Not that you can "buy low" with Olsen anymore, but I'm still trying to target him in all my leagues before he really blows up.

 

[SSOG]

I don't get this argument on Caddy. I mean....in the end most of us agree he's a low-risk, high reward, end of the roster player. Some belive he's a steal, other's believe he's a wasted pick and like other low risk high reward picks at that point instead. A select few think he'll shine just enough to flip him at a profit.

What exactly are we arguing about? The low risk part makes any real argument worthless.

ETA: Personally...I like the gamble, especially in my bigger roster leagues. In my smaller roster leagues...I've generally found guys I like a little better.

I don't think most of us agree that he's a high reward player. I think he's a low-risk, low-reward player. I suspect F&L agrees. Best case scenario, he winds up being 40% of Tampa's anemic rushing attack. Worst case scenario, he winds up being 20% of Tampa's anemic rushing attack. Tell me, which of these two scenarios qualifies as "high reward"? Even if he winds up being one of the "2"s in the 2-2-1 split... 40% of Tampa's rushing attack from last season would be 750 yards. And, at the end of the day, his upside is dramatically limited by the fact that he's just not as good as Derrick Ward (and arguably not as good as Ernest Graham). And he's not as highly paid as Ward, and he's not a "new toy", both of which just further depress his value.You want to talk about low-risk, high-reward, end-of-the-roster stashes, then let's talk about Rashard Mendenhall. Let's talk about Mewelde Moore. Let's talk about Leon Washington or Darren Sproles or Jerious Norwood. Hell, let's even talk about Willis Freaking McGahee. Let's talk about Peyton Hillis. Let's talk about a guy with a ceiling higher than 800 yards. If I could get Caddy for free, would I? Probably, but I'm in a deep league. In a shallower league, I would seriously question whether he was worth so much as a roster spot.

On a semi-related note, I saw you have Greg Olsen as your No. 1 riser among TEs. I'd have to agree. I'm in a few dynasty leagues and we got to talking about if we were starting over a new dynasty league right now, who would you want at TE. The consensus was Witten, but I was surprised at how many people still would want at No. 2 Gonzo or Gates, who seems like an "old" 29 to me. I was having a hard time coming up with anyone other than Witten that I'd rather have over Olsen. He's coming off an OK year in what was just his second in the league and playing with a pretty bad QB. Throw in a young franchise QB like Cutler, and I could easily see Olsen turning into a Witten-like stud for years to come.

Not that you can "buy low" with Olsen anymore, but I'm still trying to target him in all my leagues before he really blows up.

That's crazy, to me. Gates is so much more talented than any other TE in the league right now (including Witten), and 29 is not that old for a TE (especially since he's a "young" 29, given his late start on football). Plus, as Tomlinson fades, Gates is going to continue to shine. It's a marvel that he averaged double-digit TDs with the biggest red zone hog of the decade on his team. Once Tomlinson's done, San Diego is going to go all Pittsburgh on the league- and by that I mean that the pass is going to be the first AND second option in the red zone.Gonzo is done for dynasty purposes and shouldn't be in anyone's top 6 (IMO), so I have no problem with Olsen over Gonzo... but over Gates? No way. I also think I'd like Olsen to show me a bit more on the field before I get too excited about him. I was all over Owen Daniels after his rookie season because I could just SEE that he got it, especially for a rookie. I'm all over Keller right now because he looks like the most natural receiver entering the league at the TE position since Witten. Maybe it's just because I haven't been watching enough Chicago games, but I feel like Olsen hasn't shown me enough for me to rank him too high based entirely on his own merit (as opposed to on the merit of his situation). Not that that's a kiss of death- TE generally has a pretty long learning curve- it's just a reason why I'm not ready to jump on the Greg Olsen hype train yet.

Edit: to be more concise... Greg Olsen clearly has it, I'm just not yet convinced that he has IT.

 

[renesauz]

I don't get this argument on Caddy. I mean....in the end most of us agree he's a low-risk, high reward, end of the roster player. Some belive he's a steal, other's believe he's a wasted pick and like other low risk high reward picks at that point instead. A select few think he'll shine just enough to flip him at a profit.

What exactly are we arguing about? The low risk part makes any real argument worthless.

ETA: Personally...I like the gamble, especially in my bigger roster leagues. In my smaller roster leagues...I've generally found guys I like a little better.

I don't think most of us agree that he's a high reward player. I think he's a low-risk, low-reward player. I suspect F&L agrees. Best case scenario, he winds up being 40% of Tampa's anemic rushing attack. Worst case scenario, he winds up being 20% of Tampa's anemic rushing attack. Tell me, which of these two scenarios qualifies as "high reward"? Even if he winds up being one of the "2"s in the 2-2-1 split... 40% of Tampa's rushing attack from last season would be 750 yards. And, at the end of the day, his upside is dramatically limited by the fact that he's just not as good as Derrick Ward (and arguably not as good as Ernest Graham). And he's not as highly paid as Ward, and he's not a "new toy", both of which just further depress his value.You want to talk about low-risk, high-reward, end-of-the-roster stashes, then let's talk about Rashard Mendenhall. Let's talk about Mewelde Moore. Let's talk about Leon Washington or Darren Sproles or Jerious Norwood. Hell, let's even talk about Willis Freaking McGahee. Let's talk about Peyton Hillis. Let's talk about a guy with a ceiling higher than 800 yards. If I could get Caddy for free, would I? Probably, but I'm in a deep league. In a shallower league, I would seriously question whether he was worth so much as a roster spot.

SO....750 yards and 4 or 5 TD's is low reward for a 16/17th round pick? An RB4/5 on your squad?Again...have no problem with non-believers here. But your own stated upside more then justifies a late pick. And that upside assumes no more then 40%, which also assumes neither of the other backs get hurt. It's one thing to say you don't believe he can/will...but let's not pretend that Ward and Graham are so talented as to keep any solid RB off the field.

FWIW...acknowledging a player's potential upside doesn't mean you believe in that player, or would draft that player. Hell...Benson is the starting Cincy back, so logically his upside is 12-1300 yards....do I think he'll get that? Heck no, but the upside is there, because the opportunity is there.

Washington, Mendenhall, McGahee, Norwood and Sproles are all (rightfully) going before Caddy. I'll take Caddy ahead of Moore. No clue on Hillis right now...but not sold on him as a long term prospect.

 

[SSOG]

SO....750 yards and 4 or 5 TD's is low reward for a 16/17th round pick? An RB4/5 on your squad?Again...have no problem with non-believers here. But your own stated upside more then justifies a late pick. And that upside assumes no more then 40%, which also assumes neither of the other backs get hurt. It's one thing to say you don't believe he can/will...but let's not pretend that Ward and Graham are so talented as to keep any solid RB off the field.FWIW...acknowledging a player's potential upside doesn't mean you believe in that player, or would draft that player. Hell...Benson is the starting Cincy back, so logically his upside is 12-1300 yards....do I think he'll get that? Heck no, but the upside is there, because the opportunity is there.Washington, Mendenhall, McGahee, Norwood and Sproles are all (rightfully) going before Caddy. I'll take Caddy ahead of Moore. No clue on Hillis right now...but not sold on him as a long term prospect.

Yes, 750/5 is low reward for a 16th/17th round pick. That's 6.5 points per week, which is the fantasy equivalent of "I know I'm going to get slaughtered by putting this guy in my lineup". To be honest, I don't see much difference between a guy whose upside is 750/5 and a guy whose upside is 400/2. Either way, you're getting WRECKED if they're ever in your starting lineup. I'd rather have my RB5 spot taken by a guy with a 10% chance to get me 1200/10 and a 90% chance to get me 200/0 than a guy with a 50% chance to give me 750/5 and a 50% chance to get me 375/2. It's like WRs who have 600 yard receiving seasons in redraft leagues. Those guys are quite literally worthless... because if you ever need someone to get you 37 receiving yards per game, there are always PLENTY of them available on waivers. Likewise, if I ever needed an emergency RB to maybe get me 40 yards because my top 4 RBs are all dead... then I could easily get something like that off of waivers. Do you know how many RBs posted 100+ fantasy points last year (the equivalent of 700 yards and 5 scores)? 45. FORTY FIVE! And there would be a LOT more if we were going on a per-game basis instead of a total point basis. Ricky Williams scored 118 points last year, but nobody seems to mind him checking in at #72 in the dynasty rankings. The two names immediately before Williams are Correll Buckhalter (93 points last year) and Justin Fargas (97 points last year), and nobody views that as a great injustice, either. Sure, Caddy might get 1000 yards if every Tampa RB got hurt... but the same could easily be said about Williams, Buckhalter, and Fargas as well (which is why when I'm discussing a player's upside I don't get into those "if everyone else on the roster died" situations- because those apply equally to everyone). Hell, that "if everyone else on the roster got injured" hypothetical applies MORE to other RBs, because if one Tampa RB goes down this year, my money's on it being Caddy.Cadillac Williams is a 27-year old *INCREDIBLY* injury-riddled RB who hasn't averaged more than 4 yards per carry since his rookie year... when he had 4.1. He's fighting for a chance at even 40% of the carries with a guy who has outperformed him for two straight years and a guy the front office specifically went out and paid good money to acquire on a team that's likely going to be one of the worse rushing teams in the league. He wasn't a talent worth gambling on even before his injuries hit, and the injuries have taken a visible toll to boot. He's a guy whose entire career has been radically overhyped as the result of ONE RUN.Peyton Hillis has at least shown me he's a talent worth taking a gamble on. Mewelde Moore, too- 4.6 career ypc, STUDLY production when he's been given the green light, awesome receiving skills. Plus, MeMo has broken that magical 100 point barrier twice already (including 127 last year).Could Caddy be slid up or down a little bit? Sure- the RBs at the bottom of the league are all bunched up tightly, with only 9 points separating RB50 from RB103 in F&L's rankings. That doesn't make him anything more than what he is, though- low-upside junk, damaged goods. If he didn't cost anything to acquire and my league had deep rosters, I'd consider rostering him... but he's not worth paying anything for in my mind.

 

[thriftyrocker]

You want to talk about low-risk, high-reward, end-of-the-roster stashes, then let's talk about Rashard Mendenhall. Let's talk about Mewelde Moore. Let's talk about Leon Washington or Darren Sproles or Jerious Norwood. Hell, let's even talk about Willis Freaking McGahee. Let's talk about Peyton Hillis.

Giving a mid-1st round pick for Mendenhall, which is about his price right now, is not low-risk. A lot of the guys you listed will cost a late 1st rounder or more to acquire. Caddy is free right now, or at least was a week ago.An interesting discussion would be what other true "low-risk" backs have upside. What of the 5 point and under backs have any chance at long term value. There are two interesting ones right beside Caddy in the rankings - Ware and Wynn. Both have decent short and long term upside. Both have less near term opportunity than Caddy. I would probably drop either for Caddy. Hillis is also right there at 4, and just as much near term value as Caddy, but similar issues long term.Caddy's appeal to me is short term value. There are enough people who think he's good that it doesn't matter to me if he is or not. If he has a 80/1 or 60/2 game early in the year, which I think is highly possible, you can get a good return. Scratch & win, not stash and wait.

 

[SSOG]

You want to talk about low-risk, high-reward, end-of-the-roster stashes, then let's talk about Rashard Mendenhall. Let's talk about Mewelde Moore. Let's talk about Leon Washington or Darren Sproles or Jerious Norwood. Hell, let's even talk about Willis Freaking McGahee. Let's talk about Peyton Hillis.

Giving a mid-1st round pick for Mendenhall, which is about his price right now, is not low-risk. A lot of the guys you listed will cost a late 1st rounder or more to acquire. Caddy is free right now, or at least was a week ago.An interesting discussion would be what other true "low-risk" backs have upside. What of the 5 point and under backs have any chance at long term value. There are two interesting ones right beside Caddy in the rankings - Ware and Wynn. Both have decent short and long term upside. Both have less near term opportunity than Caddy. I would probably drop either for Caddy. Hillis is also right there at 4, and just as much near term value as Caddy, but similar issues long term.Caddy's appeal to me is short term value. There are enough people who think he's good that it doesn't matter to me if he is or not. If he has a 80/1 or 60/2 game early in the year, which I think is highly possible, you can get a good return. Scratch & win, not stash and wait.

I've seen Mendenhall available for much cheaper than that. I've owned MeMo for years and am a huge fan, but I'd let him go for cheaper than that. Some guy in my dynasty league tried to open the bidding for Willis McGahee at a late first and he got laughed off the board- his consensus value was an early 3rd.Here's a look at all the backs rated above Caddy in his tier:LenDale White- 24 years old, top 20 fantasy RB for each of the last two seasons.Rashad Jennings- young and unproven, plenty of time for something to shake out situation-wise.Javon Ringer- good back in college, young and unproven, plenty of time for something to shake out situation-wise.Mike Goodson- young and unproven, blah blah blah.Fred Jackson- actually going to be a non-RBBC starter for at least 3 games this season, giving him short term value. Actually talented, giving him long-term value.Chester Taylor- 800 yards and 6 scores last year... what if Minn decides to reduce Peterson's workload?Julius Jones- an actual starting NFL RB (and by "starting" I don't mean "scratching and clawing for a slightly featured role in a 3-way committee").Tim Hightower- 23 years old, double-digit TDs last year.Ernest Graham- exact same situation as Caddy, but in my mind better talent and less injury concern. Career ypa > 4.0.Kevin Jones- 27, has been productive before.LeRon McClain- ehh... not seeing this one so much.Gartrell Johnson- young and unproven, SD's about to have a void at featured back.Bernard Scott- young and unproven, not much competition ahead of him.Fred Taylor- an actual starting RB this year... although I'd probably bump him down behind Caddy.Looks to me like every back ahead of Caddy except for Taylor and McClain has more upside. That's why they're rated above Caddy. You say most of the backs behind Caddy don't have the upside he does? Well then, that's probably why they're rated BEHIND Caddy (although I'd actually take Wynn, Brandon Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Chris Brown, Jerome Harrison, and Mewelde Moore over Caddy in a second. Brandon Jackson in particular is CRIMINALLY underrated, here).

 

[Magnus_CA]

Any chance we're going to see the WR rankings back up on the Blog any time soon?

 

[Magnus_CA]

F&L,

This could probably be a whole topic in and of itself (and it probably is) but if memory serves me correctly Baby TO took a hit in your last rankings thanks to the knucklehead factor and the state of the offense/QB situation in Denver (my assumptions). Assuming no additional suspensions are handed down as a result of his conduct how many WR's would he leapfrog in the rankings if he were traded to one of the leagues elite offenses? How about if he were traded to the Jets?

 

[corpcow]

Yes, 750/5 is low reward for a 16th/17th round pick. That's 6.5 points per week, which is the fantasy equivalent of "I know I'm going to get slaughtered by putting this guy in my lineup". To be honest, I don't see much difference between a guy whose upside is 750/5 and a guy whose upside is 400/2. Either way, you're getting WRECKED if they're ever in your starting lineup. I'd rather have my RB5 spot taken by a guy with a 10% chance to get me 1200/10 and a 90% chance to get me 200/0 than a guy with a 50% chance to give me 750/5 and a 50% chance to get me 375/2. It's like WRs who have 600 yard receiving seasons in redraft leagues. Those guys are quite literally worthless... because if you ever need someone to get you 37 receiving yards per game, there are always PLENTY of them available on waivers. ...Could Caddy be slid up or down a little bit? Sure- the RBs at the bottom of the league are all bunched up tightly, with only 9 points separating RB50 from RB103 in F&L's rankings. That doesn't make him anything more than what he is, though- low-upside junk, damaged goods. If he didn't cost anything to acquire and my league had deep rosters, I'd consider rostering him... but he's not worth paying anything for in my mind.

I'm not a Caddy believer myself - in fact, I just cut him in the one league I had him in - but I also don't think it's fair to say his "upside" is 40% of the TB rushing attack. Almost all of these end-of-the-bench guys are ones that have talent but not opportunity - and their upside comes from an improvement in that opportunity.TO this end, I also think you're overstating the competition. First, in terms of raw "talent" (and we're ignoring hunger, what injuries have done, etc) - Ward was drafted in the 7th round, Graham was undrafted, and Caddy was a top 5 overall pick.Second, it's not like either Graham or Ward have proven that they can be the bellcow. Ward had a good (almost great, if you consider value) year last year, but it's the only year he's done anything and he did it on a team that was dominating opposing defenses in the running game. Sure, he averaged 5.6 YPC last year, but Jacobs averaged 5.0 and Bradshaw averaged 5.3. On top of this, he's never been a proven workhorse. He was healthy last year, but has already been hurt this preseason (walking around in a boot because of a foot injury). He missed 4 games in 2007 with ankle and groin injuries before breaking his fibula in week 13.Graham had one "good" year - he had a few really big games and managed to score 10 total TDs, but he also had some rough games. He was an amazing value and helped many of us win championships, but it's not like he was a dominant force or anything. Then, one year removed from a 222 carry year, he was average, struggled with injury, and was replaced by Warrick Dunn. He too has struggled with injury this year as well, and was a GTF last week with an ankle injury.It's one thing to say that you don't think he is the same back or isn't dynamic and won't do anything with the opportunity.... but I don't think it's fair to cap his OPPORTUNITY at 40% of the TB rushing attack. Just saying.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L,This could probably be a whole topic in and of itself (and it probably is) but if memory serves me correctly Baby TO took a hit in your last rankings thanks to the knucklehead factor and the state of the offense/QB situation in Denver (my assumptions). Assuming no additional suspensions are handed down as a result of his conduct how many WR's would he leapfrog in the rankings if he were traded to one of the leagues elite offenses? How about if he were traded to the Jets?

He's not leapfrogging any WRs no matter what happens. He's going to be relegated to a lower tier again.

Assuming no additional suspensions

How can we possibly assume no additional suspensions? This guy is a useless pustule. When he's out of handcuffs he’s sabotaging Broncos practice, malingering, and trashing the organization. A suspension waiting to happen, Marshall combines the worst parts of Terrell Owens and Plaxico Burress. No thanks. He's a hot mess.

 

[corpcow]

Ernest Graham- exact same situation as Caddy, but in my mind better talent and less injury concern. Career ypa > 4.0.

It's interesting to me that you can say something like this as if there's no debate.Caddy was a top 5 overall pick, Graham was undrafted. For his career, Graham has a 4.1 YPC while Caddy has 3.8 - but I would argue that the TB OL was better in 2007-2008 than it was in 2005-06. In either case, it's not like Graham has exactly dominated in anything he's done...Plus, Graham hasn't exactly been injury free - he had ankle issues last year and was again injured this preseason. Meanwhile, Caddy looked better and healthier than we've seen him since those first 4 games of his career.To me, none of these guys are particularly interesting - a great running game can sustain 3 fantasy RBs, but I don't think the TB running game is great, and I think each of these three will limit each other's value. But.... to say that Graham is clearly better?

 

[Cookiemonster]

Or...

Here's a look at all the backs rated above Caddy in his tier:

LenDale White- 24 years old, top 20 fantasy RB for each of the last two seasons. A guy who got fat & lazy and was displaced as a feature back by a rookie barely weighing 200 pounds.

Rashad Jennings- young and unproven, plenty of time for something to shake out situation-wise. Stuck behind one of the elite backs in the league who just signed a huge contract and is fighting from behind a FB and Chauncey Washington for PT.

Javon Ringer- good back in college, young and unproven, plenty of time for something to shake out situation-wise. Good vision and toughness, but lacking in all athletic categories behind a couple backs for at least this year, and one of those for the forseeable future.

Mike Goodson- young and unproven, blah blah blah. Behind DeAngelo and Stewart for at least a couple more years.

Fred Jackson- actually going to be a non-RBBC starter for at least 3 games this season, giving him short term value. Actually talented, giving him long-term value... on one of the worst offenses in the NFL, behind or with Lynch for the foreseeable future.

Chester Taylor- 800 yards and 6 scores last year... what if Minn decides to reduce Peterson's workload? ... and we're downgrading Caddy for those #s but he's a few years younger.

Julius Jones- an actual THE WORST starting NFL RB.

Tim Hightower- 23 years old, double-digit TDs last year... and during the playoffs, the Cards turned it over to the guy who isn't expected to take Julius Jones' job???

Ernest Graham- exact same situation as Caddy, but in my mind better talent Caddy sucks.

Kevin Jones- 27, has been just about as productive as Caddy has, has had serious leg injuries like Caddy and is very close in age to Caddy, but will not PLAY without the starter going down.

LeRon McClain- ehh... not seeing this one so much. Finally we agree.

Gartrell Johnson- young and unproven, SD's about to have a void at featured back... but he's viewed as a possible cut and may be out of a job week 1.

Bernard Scott- young and unproven, not much competition ahead of him... except his own dumb ###. For the rights to play behind a horrid O line.

Fred Taylor- an actual starting RB this year... although I'd probably bump him down behind Caddy. Not a timeshare? NE!?!? At 53 years old?

 

[Magnus_CA]

F&L,This could probably be a whole topic in and of itself (and it probably is) but if memory serves me correctly Baby TO took a hit in your last rankings thanks to the knucklehead factor and the state of the offense/QB situation in Denver (my assumptions). Assuming no additional suspensions are handed down as a result of his conduct how many WR's would he leapfrog in the rankings if he were traded to one of the leagues elite offenses? How about if he were traded to the Jets?

He's not leapfrogging any WRs no matter what happens. He's going to be relegated to a lower tier again.

Assuming no additional suspensions

How can we possibly assume no additional suspensions? This guy is a useless pustule. When he's out of handcuffs he’s sabotaging Broncos practice, malingering, and trashing the organization. A suspension waiting to happen, Marshall combines the worst parts of Terrell Owens and Plaxico Burress. No thanks. He's a hot mess.

Wow, how do you really feel? I was planning on going with Bowe in anticipation of being my 5th and final keeper but I was considering BMarsh as well based on his talent and physical prowess. I was pretty sure you downgraded Marshall because of limitations imposed by his offense but now I see it was more due to the fact that he's a moron. Regardless, it's good to know and I absolutely agree.About the WR rankings...is there an archived version of your most recent list somewhere?

 

[SSOG]

I'm not a Caddy believer myself - in fact, I just cut him in the one league I had him in - but I also don't think it's fair to say his "upside" is 40% of the TB rushing attack. Almost all of these end-of-the-bench guys are ones that have talent but not opportunity - and their upside comes from an improvement in that opportunity.

TO this end, I also think you're overstating the competition.

First, in terms of raw "talent" (and we're ignoring hunger, what injuries have done, etc) - Ward was drafted in the 7th round, Graham was undrafted, and Caddy was a top 5 overall pick.

Second, it's not like either Graham or Ward have proven that they can be the bellcow.

Ward had a good (almost great, if you consider value) year last year, but it's the only year he's done anything and he did it on a team that was dominating opposing defenses in the running game. Sure, he averaged 5.6 YPC last year, but Jacobs averaged 5.0 and Bradshaw averaged 5.3. On top of this, he's never been a proven workhorse. He was healthy last year, but has already been hurt this preseason (walking around in a boot because of a foot injury). He missed 4 games in 2007 with ankle and groin injuries before breaking his fibula in week 13.

Graham had one "good" year - he had a few really big games and managed to score 10 total TDs, but he also had some rough games. He was an amazing value and helped many of us win championships, but it's not like he was a dominant force or anything. Then, one year removed from a 222 carry year, he was average, struggled with injury, and was replaced by Warrick Dunn. He too has struggled with injury this year as well, and was a GTF last week with an ankle injury.

It's one thing to say that you don't think he is the same back or isn't dynamic and won't do anything with the opportunity.... but I don't think it's fair to cap his OPPORTUNITY at 40% of the TB rushing attack.

Just saying.

Yes, Caddy was a lottery pick and Ward was a 7th rounder and Graham was undrafted. And Tom Brady was a 6th rounder, and Ryan Leaf was a first rounder, and Cedric Benson was a lottery pick, and Terrell Davis was a 6th rounder, and Michael Turner was a 5th rounder, and Rod Smith was undrafted, and Shannon Sharpe was a 7th rounder, and Vernon Davis was a lottery pick, and Antonio Gates was undrafted, and Terrell Owens was a 4th rounder, and Charles Rogers was a lottery pick, and Robert Gallery was a lottery pick, and both Mike Williamses were lottery picks, and Matt Lepsis was undrafted. This is a very fun game! Wanna keep playing?Where a player was drafted is a relevant measure of talent when they've been in the league for a year or two and haven't had a chance to show much on the field. It goes out the window entirely when we have 4+ years worth of tape on them, because we don't need to rely on second-hand information (like how fast they run in shorts or how well they do against ridiculously overmatched competition) to gauge their talent. We can, you know, actually watch and measure what they've actually done in actual NFL situations against actual NFL teams for their entire actual NFL career. At that point, bringing up draft position is one of the flimsiest arguments around.

In my mind, Caddy is the third best back in Tampa (based on the fact that I've seen him play and he doesn't look like a good RB, and I've seen Derrick Ward play and he does look like a good RB, and I've seen Earnest Graham play and he looked like an okay RB, and the Tampa front office saw Cadillac Williams play and he looked bad enough that they brought in someone else, and they saw Derrick Ward play and he looked good enough that he was the guy they brought in... not based on where these guys were drafted 4 and 5 years ago), so I have no problem capping his opportunity at 40%. It might go higher if one of the Tampa RBs gets injured... but as I said, if one of the Tampa RBs gets injured, it's most likely to be Caddy in the first place.

Ernest Graham- exact same situation as Caddy, but in my mind better talent and less injury concern. Career ypa > 4.0.

It's interesting to me that you can say something like this as if there's no debate.Caddy was a top 5 overall pick, Graham was undrafted. For his career, Graham has a 4.1 YPC while Caddy has 3.8 - but I would argue that the TB OL was better in 2007-2008 than it was in 2005-06. In either case, it's not like Graham has exactly dominated in anything he's done...

Plus, Graham hasn't exactly been injury free - he had ankle issues last year and was again injured this preseason. Meanwhile, Caddy looked better and healthier than we've seen him since those first 4 games of his career.

To me, none of these guys are particularly interesting - a great running game can sustain 3 fantasy RBs, but I don't think the TB running game is great, and I think each of these three will limit each other's value. But.... to say that Graham is clearly better?

Ummm... there *IS* no debate. IN MY MIND Earnest Graham is a better talent and lesser injury concern than Caddy. If you want to debate that Caddy secretly is a better talent IN MY MIND, then you can feel free to try, but I'm afraid that's one argument that you'd have no shot at winning.It's not like I stated that Graham was more talented and less injury prone as if it were objective truth which anyone with a brain could easily perceive. I clearly prefaced it with an "in my mind". It's my opinion and it was clearly marked as such. Should I just not offer opinions anymore? Or maybe I just shouldn't feel any conviction in the opinions that I offer?

 

[travdogg]

Looks to me like every back ahead of Caddy except for Taylor and McClain has more upside. That's why they're rated above Caddy. You say most of the backs behind Caddy don't have the upside he does? Well then, that's probably why they're rated BEHIND Caddy (although I'd actually take Wynn, Brandon Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Chris Brown, Jerome Harrison, and Mewelde Moore over Caddy in a second. Brandon Jackson in particular is CRIMINALLY underrated, here).

Brandon Jackson is criminally underrated? Jackson is lucky to have a job. He's the #3 in GB at best. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was cut in a few days. He's clearly behind Wynn on the depth chart. His only skill is that he's a decent pass catcher,not even a good one, just better at it than Grant.What is it you think is underrated about him?

 

[Magnus_CA]

Looks to me like every back ahead of Caddy except for Taylor and McClain has more upside. That's why they're rated above Caddy. You say most of the backs behind Caddy don't have the upside he does? Well then, that's probably why they're rated BEHIND Caddy (although I'd actually take Wynn, Brandon Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Chris Brown, Jerome Harrison, and Mewelde Moore over Caddy in a second. Brandon Jackson in particular is CRIMINALLY underrated, here).

Brandon Jackson is criminally underrated? Jackson is lucky to have a job. He's the #3 in GB at best. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was cut in a few days. He's clearly behind Wynn on the depth chart. His only skill is that he's a decent pass catcher,not even a good one, just better at it than Grant.What is it you think is underrated about him?

That's a gross exaggeration and if he's the #3 right now it's because of the ankle injury that's limited him thought the pre-season.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Looks to me like every back ahead of Caddy except for Taylor and McClain has more upside. That's why they're rated above Caddy. You say most of the backs behind Caddy don't have the upside he does? Well then, that's probably why they're rated BEHIND Caddy (although I'd actually take Wynn, Brandon Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Chris Brown, Jerome Harrison, and Mewelde Moore over Caddy in a second. Brandon Jackson in particular is CRIMINALLY underrated, here).

Brandon Jackson is criminally underrated? Jackson is lucky to have a job. He's the #3 in GB at best. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was cut in a few days. He's clearly behind Wynn on the depth chart. His only skill is that he's a decent pass catcher,not even a good one, just better at it than Grant.What is it you think is underrated about him?

Third-down backs who routinely whiff on blocks are pretty much useless. IMO, Wynn >> Jackson.

 

[SSOG]

Or...

Here's a look at all the backs rated above Caddy in his tier:

LenDale White- 24 years old, top 20 fantasy RB for each of the last two seasons. A guy who got fat & lazy and was displaced as a feature back by a rookie barely weighing 200 pounds.

Rashad Jennings- young and unproven, plenty of time for something to shake out situation-wise. Stuck behind one of the elite backs in the league who just signed a huge contract and is fighting from behind a FB and Chauncey Washington for PT.

Javon Ringer- good back in college, young and unproven, plenty of time for something to shake out situation-wise. Good vision and toughness, but lacking in all athletic categories behind a couple backs for at least this year, and one of those for the forseeable future.

Mike Goodson- young and unproven, blah blah blah. Behind DeAngelo and Stewart for at least a couple more years.

Fred Jackson- actually going to be a non-RBBC starter for at least 3 games this season, giving him short term value. Actually talented, giving him long-term value... on one of the worst offenses in the NFL, behind or with Lynch for the foreseeable future.

Chester Taylor- 800 yards and 6 scores last year... what if Minn decides to reduce Peterson's workload? ... and we're downgrading Caddy for those #s but he's a few years younger.

Julius Jones- an actual THE WORST starting NFL RB.

Tim Hightower- 23 years old, double-digit TDs last year... and during the playoffs, the Cards turned it over to the guy who isn't expected to take Julius Jones' job???

Ernest Graham- exact same situation as Caddy, but in my mind better talent Caddy sucks.

Kevin Jones- 27, has been just about as productive as Caddy has, has had serious leg injuries like Caddy and is very close in age to Caddy, but will not PLAY without the starter going down.

LeRon McClain- ehh... not seeing this one so much. Finally we agree.

Gartrell Johnson- young and unproven, SD's about to have a void at featured back... but he's viewed as a possible cut and may be out of a job week 1.

Bernard Scott- young and unproven, not much competition ahead of him... except his own dumb ###. For the rights to play behind a horrid O line.

Fred Taylor- an actual starting RB this year... although I'd probably bump him down behind Caddy. Not a timeshare? NE!?!? At 53 years old?

In order...LenDale White was displaced by Chris Johnson... but still finished as a top 20 RB. Pretty relevant when discussing his upside. LenDale has scored more in *EACH OF THE LAST TWO SEASONS* than Caddy did in his "magical" rookie year.

Rashad Jennings, Mike Goodson, and Javon Ringer are stuck in bad situations, but Michael Turner clearly demonstrates that talented RBs in bad situations eventually find themselves in good situations. Are those three RBs talented enough to find themselves in a good situation one day? It's possible... which is more than can be said for Caddy.
The fact that Fred Jackson was on one of the worst offenses would be more relevant if I wasn't comparing him to an RB (Caddy) who is LIKEWISE on one of the worst offenses. The fact that he's in a 2-way timeshare might be more relevant if I wasn't comparing him to an RB who is in a THREE-WAY timeshare.
Chester Taylor is *ALREADY PRODUCING* at Caddy's upside, and he has upside to perform even higher still.
Julius Jones is the worst starting RB in the NFL... but better the worst starting RB than a mediocre 3rd stringer.
I don't think Hightower is any great shakes at all (sub 3.0 ypc is impressively awful)... but he's 23 and will likely have more opportunity than Caddy both in the short term *AND* in the long term.
There's one key difference between Caddy and Kevin Jones. Kevin Jones was actually good once upon a time. Actually, there's a second key difference, too- Jones can catch.
Gartrell Johnson may be cut... but as I'd said, I'd rather have a 10% shot at 1200/10 than a 50% shot at 750/5.I'm not arguing that any of these RBs are must-owns here. These guys are outside of the top 50 in F&L's dynasty rankings. They're all junk. I'm just arguing that they're less junky than Caddy.

 

[SSOG]

Looks to me like every back ahead of Caddy except for Taylor and McClain has more upside. That's why they're rated above Caddy. You say most of the backs behind Caddy don't have the upside he does? Well then, that's probably why they're rated BEHIND Caddy (although I'd actually take Wynn, Brandon Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Chris Brown, Jerome Harrison, and Mewelde Moore over Caddy in a second. Brandon Jackson in particular is CRIMINALLY underrated, here).

Brandon Jackson is criminally underrated? Jackson is lucky to have a job. He's the #3 in GB at best. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was cut in a few days. He's clearly behind Wynn on the depth chart. His only skill is that he's a decent pass catcher,not even a good one, just better at it than Grant.What is it you think is underrated about him?

I think he has the best chance of any back on Green Bay's roster of being the starting RB 3 years from now. That's a lottery ticket I'd be interested in purchasing.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Looks to me like every back ahead of Caddy except for Taylor and McClain has more upside. That's why they're rated above Caddy. You say most of the backs behind Caddy don't have the upside he does? Well then, that's probably why they're rated BEHIND Caddy (although I'd actually take Wynn, Brandon Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Chris Brown, Jerome Harrison, and Mewelde Moore over Caddy in a second. Brandon Jackson in particular is CRIMINALLY underrated, here).

Brandon Jackson is criminally underrated? Jackson is lucky to have a job. He's the #3 in GB at best. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was cut in a few days. He's clearly behind Wynn on the depth chart. His only skill is that he's a decent pass catcher,not even a good one, just better at it than Grant.What is it you think is underrated about him?

I think he has the best chance of any back on Green Bay's roster of being the starting RB 3 years from now. That's a lottery ticket I'd be interested in purchasing.

What does he do well? I've been looking for a Jackson strength for two years now, and I haven't found it.Grant is a better runner. Wynn is a better runner, blocker, and receiver -- though past commitment issues and trouble staying healthy kept him behind Jackson ... until now?

 

[Tau837]

Looks to me like every back ahead of Caddy except for Taylor and McClain has more upside. That's why they're rated above Caddy. You say most of the backs behind Caddy don't have the upside he does? Well then, that's probably why they're rated BEHIND Caddy (although I'd actually take Wynn, Brandon Jackson, Peyton Hillis, Chris Brown, Jerome Harrison, and Mewelde Moore over Caddy in a second. Brandon Jackson in particular is CRIMINALLY underrated, here).

Brandon Jackson is criminally underrated? Jackson is lucky to have a job. He's the #3 in GB at best. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was cut in a few days. He's clearly behind Wynn on the depth chart. His only skill is that he's a decent pass catcher,not even a good one, just better at it than Grant.What is it you think is underrated about him?

I think he has the best chance of any back on Green Bay's roster of being the starting RB 3 years from now. That's a lottery ticket I'd be interested in purchasing.

What does he do well? I've been looking for a Jackson strength for two years now, and I haven't found it.Grant is a better runner. Wynn is a better runner, blocker, and receiver -- though past commitment issues and trouble staying healthy kept him behind Jackson ... until now?

 

[BeTheMatch]

I've still read as recently as this week that Jackson is the clear No. 2 RB in Green Bay and that Wynn and Sutton and Lumpkin are fighting for two spots. That none of them are safe. So that's fine if you think Wynn is better than Jackson, but there are no indications that Green Bay agrees with you.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I've still read as recently as this week that Jackson is the clear No. 2 RB in Green Bay and that Wynn and Sutton and Lumpkin are fighting for two spots. That none of them are safe. So that's fine if you think Wynn is better than Jackson, but there are no indications that Green Bay agrees with you.

Not saying you're wrong but

 

[corpcow]

I'm not a Caddy believer myself - in fact, I just cut him in the one league I had him in - but I also don't think it's fair to say his "upside" is 40% of the TB rushing attack. Almost all of these end-of-the-bench guys are ones that have talent but not opportunity - and their upside comes from an improvement in that opportunity.

TO this end, I also think you're overstating the competition.

First, in terms of raw "talent" (and we're ignoring hunger, what injuries have done, etc) - Ward was drafted in the 7th round, Graham was undrafted, and Caddy was a top 5 overall pick.

Second, it's not like either Graham or Ward have proven that they can be the bellcow.

Ward had a good (almost great, if you consider value) year last year, but it's the only year he's done anything and he did it on a team that was dominating opposing defenses in the running game. Sure, he averaged 5.6 YPC last year, but Jacobs averaged 5.0 and Bradshaw averaged 5.3. On top of this, he's never been a proven workhorse. He was healthy last year, but has already been hurt this preseason (walking around in a boot because of a foot injury). He missed 4 games in 2007 with ankle and groin injuries before breaking his fibula in week 13.

Graham had one "good" year - he had a few really big games and managed to score 10 total TDs, but he also had some rough games. He was an amazing value and helped many of us win championships, but it's not like he was a dominant force or anything. Then, one year removed from a 222 carry year, he was average, struggled with injury, and was replaced by Warrick Dunn. He too has struggled with injury this year as well, and was a GTF last week with an ankle injury.

It's one thing to say that you don't think he is the same back or isn't dynamic and won't do anything with the opportunity.... but I don't think it's fair to cap his OPPORTUNITY at 40% of the TB rushing attack.

Just saying.

Yes, Caddy was a lottery pick and Ward was a 7th rounder and Graham was undrafted. And Tom Brady was a 6th rounder, and Ryan Leaf was a first rounder, and Cedric Benson was a lottery pick, and Terrell Davis was a 6th rounder, and Michael Turner was a 5th rounder, and Rod Smith was undrafted, and Shannon Sharpe was a 7th rounder, and Vernon Davis was a lottery pick, and Antonio Gates was undrafted, and Terrell Owens was a 4th rounder, and Charles Rogers was a lottery pick, and Robert Gallery was a lottery pick, and both Mike Williamses were lottery picks, and Matt Lepsis was undrafted. This is a very fun game! Wanna keep playing?Where a player was drafted is a relevant measure of talent when they've been in the league for a year or two and haven't had a chance to show much on the field. It goes out the window entirely when we have 4+ years worth of tape on them, because we don't need to rely on second-hand information (like how fast they run in shorts or how well they do against ridiculously overmatched competition) to gauge their talent. We can, you know, actually watch and measure what they've actually done in actual NFL situations against actual NFL teams for their entire actual NFL career. At that point, bringing up draft position is one of the flimsiest arguments around.

In my mind, Caddy is the third best back in Tampa (based on the fact that I've seen him play and he doesn't look like a good RB, and I've seen Derrick Ward play and he does look like a good RB, and I've seen Earnest Graham play and he looked like an okay RB, and the Tampa front office saw Cadillac Williams play and he looked bad enough that they brought in someone else, and they saw Derrick Ward play and he looked good enough that he was the guy they brought in... not based on where these guys were drafted 4 and 5 years ago), so I have no problem capping his opportunity at 40%. It might go higher if one of the Tampa RBs gets injured... but as I said, if one of the Tampa RBs gets injured, it's most likely to be Caddy in the first place.

Hey, I'm not trying to suggest that draft position is at all deterministic about success... only that it provides a baseline for the talent discussion. Let's also frame this another way - generally speaking, RB is a position that is easier to succeed at than QB, LT or WR. As such, the hit rate is - for the most part - higher, and they are - for the most part - drafted later. Undrafted guys regularly become productive NFL backs (at least for a short time), and 2nd and 3rd round picks regularly become contributors early in their career. (Hell, even ROn Dayne who many consider a colossal bust had a couple of impressive games, right?) And so, to some degree, the fact that he was drafted that early "means more" than if he were a QB or LT because of that.

At least to me, I don't think Caddy was a "bust" because of his health issues... when he was healthy, I never looked at him as a guy who wasn't capable of being a productive back in the NFL. Was he worth a top 10 pick on talent? Probably not... but then again, if he had stayed healthy, he might have been.

In any case, you missed my entire point. I wasn't suggesting that Caddy was anything special - only that I think Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward are nothing special either.

Ernest Graham- exact same situation as Caddy, but in my mind better talent and less injury concern. Career ypa > 4.0.

It's interesting to me that you can say something like this as if there's no debate.Caddy was a top 5 overall pick, Graham was undrafted. For his career, Graham has a 4.1 YPC while Caddy has 3.8 - but I would argue that the TB OL was better in 2007-2008 than it was in 2005-06. In either case, it's not like Graham has exactly dominated in anything he's done...

Plus, Graham hasn't exactly been injury free - he had ankle issues last year and was again injured this preseason. Meanwhile, Caddy looked better and healthier than we've seen him since those first 4 games of his career.

To me, none of these guys are particularly interesting - a great running game can sustain 3 fantasy RBs, but I don't think the TB running game is great, and I think each of these three will limit each other's value. But.... to say that Graham is clearly better?

Ummm... there *IS* no debate. IN MY MIND Earnest Graham is a better talent and lesser injury concern than Caddy. If you want to debate that Caddy secretly is a better talent IN MY MIND, then you can feel free to try, but I'm afraid that's one argument that you'd have no shot at winning.It's not like I stated that Graham was more talented and less injury prone as if it were objective truth which anyone with a brain could easily perceive. I clearly prefaced it with an "in my mind". It's my opinion and it was clearly marked as such. Should I just not offer opinions anymore? Or maybe I just shouldn't feel any conviction in the opinions that I offer?

You're right - I apologize - I was replying to your quote but reacting to the general sentiment which seems to echo that quote. But, that's still curious to me. Graham never jumped out at me as a particularly "talented" guy. When I saw him, I immediately thought of a guy like Droughns - a role player who had success because of the opportunity and enough talent to take advantage of it, but not someone "special" in their own right.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I've still read as recently as this week that Jackson is the clear No. 2 RB in Green Bay and that Wynn and Sutton and Lumpkin are fighting for two spots. That none of them are safe. So that's fine if you think Wynn is better than Jackson, but there are no indications that Green Bay agrees with you.

Not saying you're wrong but

I knew that was coming. I don't know if it was Rotoworld or KFFL or what. But one of those places had a couple different blurbs about it before Jackson got hurt, that Wynn wasn't even a lock to make the roster because of Sutton's emergence.And then even after Jackson got hurt, he was referred to as the No. 2 RB in Green Bay and that his injury might allow someone behind him to try to move up and catch him, but then it went on to say that Wynn and Lumpkin have been nothing special and that Sutton looks like the best shot to make the roster because of his pass-catching abilities.I remember it because I found it to be pretty surprising considering I had earlier this preseason seen some glowing reports on Wynn.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I've still read as recently as this week that Jackson is the clear No. 2 RB in Green Bay and that Wynn and Sutton and Lumpkin are fighting for two spots. That none of them are safe. So that's fine if you think Wynn is better than Jackson, but there are no indications that Green Bay agrees with you.

Not saying you're wrong but

I knew that was coming. I don't know if it was Rotoworld or KFFL or what. But one of those places had a couple different blurbs about it before Jackson got hurt, that Wynn wasn't even a lock to make the roster because of Sutton's emergence.And then even after Jackson got hurt, he was referred to as the No. 2 RB in Green Bay and that his injury might allow someone behind him to try to move up and catch him, but then it went on to say that Wynn and Lumpkin have been nothing special and that Sutton looks like the best shot to make the roster because of his pass-catching abilities.I remember it because I found it to be pretty surprising considering I had earlier this preseason seen some glowing reports on Wynn.

There are no indications from Packers coaches themselves whatsoever. All of those reports are beat writers and Rotoworld/KFFL trying to figure out what's going to happen. The latest guess is that Sutton makes the team at Lumpkin's expense. It's also believed that Jackson has a high ankle sprain, which would give Wynn the No. 2 job to enter the season. Considering that Wynn is a more explosive runner, equally as good if not better as a receiver, and a drastic improvement in pass blocking, Wynn could easily keep the job as long as he stays healthy.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I've still read as recently as this week that Jackson is the clear No. 2 RB in Green Bay and that Wynn and Sutton and Lumpkin are fighting for two spots. That none of them are safe. So that's fine if you think Wynn is better than Jackson, but there are no indications that Green Bay agrees with you.

Not saying you're wrong but

I knew that was coming. I don't know if it was Rotoworld or KFFL or what. But one of those places had a couple different blurbs about it before Jackson got hurt, that Wynn wasn't even a lock to make the roster because of Sutton's emergence.And then even after Jackson got hurt, he was referred to as the No. 2 RB in Green Bay and that his injury might allow someone behind him to try to move up and catch him, but then it went on to say that Wynn and Lumpkin have been nothing special and that Sutton looks like the best shot to make the roster because of his pass-catching abilities.I remember it because I found it to be pretty surprising considering I had earlier this preseason seen some glowing reports on Wynn.

There are no indications from Packers coaches themselves whatsoever. All of those reports are beat writers and Rotoworld/KFFL trying to figure out what's going to happen. The latest guess is that Sutton makes the team at Lumpkin's expense. It's also believed that Jackson has a high ankle sprain, which would give Wynn the No. 2 job to enter the season. Considering that Wynn is a more explosive runner, equally as good if not better as a receiver, and a drastic improvement in pass blocking, Wynn could easily keep the job as long as he stays healthy.

I know they are, but I would say that those beat writers get at least some of their opinions based off of things they hear from the team. Obviously the high-ankle sprain doesn't help Jackson, and he might not get the job back, but I haven't seen anything lately about anyone being impressed with Wynn.My main point here was that anyone throwing around Wynn as the definite No. 2 starter is only stating their opinion on what they think will happen. Nothing more.

 

[mcintyre1]

F&L,

This could probably be a whole topic in and of itself (and it probably is) but if memory serves me correctly Baby TO took a hit in your last rankings thanks to the knucklehead factor and the state of the offense/QB situation in Denver (my assumptions). Assuming no additional suspensions are handed down as a result of his conduct how many WR's would he leapfrog in the rankings if he were traded to one of the leagues elite offenses? How about if he were traded to the Jets?

He's not leapfrogging any WRs no matter what happens. He's going to be relegated to a lower tier again.

Assuming no additional suspensions

How can we possibly assume no additional suspensions? This guy is a useless pustule. When he's out of handcuffs he’s sabotaging Broncos practice, malingering, and trashing the organization. A suspension waiting to happen, Marshall combines the worst parts of Terrell Owens and Plaxico Burress. No thanks. He's a hot mess.

Is this based purely on his character? Or do you think he's not an elite talent? Just curious as I know you aren't high on Cutler either... so if neither Cutler or Marshall are elite talents, how do you explain the stats?My feeling on him is that sure, he's a knucklehead, but he has shown himself to be an elite player in the league. He wants to be paid that way. If you pay him, he'll play for you. He's still young, and still has a long career ahead of him (barring a pacman jones style shooting). Let's be honest here. The NFL likes to make a big broo-haha about cracking down on domestic violence and similar crimes among its players, but when push comes to shove, they want their playmakers on the field when they aren't in jail. Marshall will make lots of money for some team and in turn, the NFL, when he is happy with his pay.

I think he's an excellent option in dynasty leagues, as he has the talent to be top-10 as a WR, and can be had for cheap by panicking owners.

(obviously I'm biased as BOTH Cutler and Marshall are on my dynasty team, but I'm just trying to spark dialogue)

 

[Cookiemonster]

LenDale White was displaced by Chris Johnson... but still finished as a top 20 RB. Pretty relevant when discussing his upside. LenDale has scored more in *EACH OF THE LAST TWO SEASONS* than Caddy did in his "magical" rookie year.

Rashad Jennings, Mike Goodson, and Javon Ringer are stuck in bad situations, but Michael Turner clearly demonstrates that talented RBs in bad situations eventually find themselves in good situations. Are those three RBs talented enough to find themselves in a good situation one day? It's possible... which is more than can be said for Caddy.
The fact that Fred Jackson was on one of the worst offenses would be more relevant if I wasn't comparing him to an RB (Caddy) who is LIKEWISE on one of the worst offenses. The fact that he's in a 2-way timeshare might be more relevant if I wasn't comparing him to an RB who is in a THREE-WAY timeshare.
Chester Taylor is *ALREADY PRODUCING* at Caddy's upside, and he has upside to perform even higher still.
Julius Jones is the worst starting RB in the NFL... but better the worst starting RB than a mediocre 3rd stringer.
I don't think Hightower is any great shakes at all (sub 3.0 ypc is impressively awful)... but he's 23 and will likely have more opportunity than Caddy both in the short term *AND* in the long term.
There's one key difference between Caddy and Kevin Jones. Kevin Jones was actually good once upon a time. Actually, there's a second key difference, too- Jones can catch.
Gartrell Johnson may be cut... but as I'd said, I'd rather have a 10% shot at 1200/10 than a 50% shot at 750/5.I'm not arguing that any of these RBs are must-owns here. These guys are outside of the top 50 in F&L's dynasty rankings. They're all junk. I'm just arguing that they're less junky than Caddy.

I don't disagree with you on all of these backs. I just think you and F&L are selling Williams' potential short. You don't like him, I do, so what. I do agree that LenDale and Fred Jackson are more appealing, but I think I'd roster Caddy before the rest. He was Gruden's pet. You knew he'd get every opportunity while Chucky was there, but I think it speaks volumes that now, under Morris, Caddy is still getting a realistic shot. I also don't agree that Chet Taylor's production is Caddy's ceiling beyond this year. I could see a healthy and impressive performance from Caddy this year turning into a majority role going into 2010. There was already talk of making Graham a FB when Ward was signed. If Ward flops (sure looked unimpressive next to Caddy & Graham last game - in my eyes and others apparently) why isn't this possible? Why is it less possible than Kevin Jones being a viable fantasy starter again?

 

[EBF]

RE: Caddy Williams

Former first round pick. Looked decent when healthy. Only 27 years old. Perfect guy to roster for pennies on the off chance that he pulls a Thomas Jones.

 

[benm3218]

Sanchez looks like a stud. Great passing tonight, highly accurate and great job.

 

[SSOG]

What does he do well? I've been looking for a Jackson strength for two years now, and I haven't found it.Grant is a better runner. Wynn is a better runner, blocker, and receiver -- though past commitment issues and trouble staying healthy kept him behind Jackson ... until now?

Part of it's not being high on Jackson as much as it is being low on Wynn. I'm a UF fan. I watched every game of Wynn's career and was thoroughly underwhelmed. I haven't watched a whole lot of GB football, but what I've seen hasn't been enough to change my mind from my first impression.

Graham never jumped out at me as a particularly "talented" guy. When I saw him, I immediately thought of a guy like Droughns - a role player who had success because of the opportunity and enough talent to take advantage of it, but not someone "special" in their own right.

"more talented than Caddy" != "talented". I have no problem comparing Graham to Droughns. It's more a matter of how low I am on Caddy than it is of how high I am on Graham (although I do think Ward is better than you're giving him credit for).

RE: Caddy WilliamsFormer first round pick. Looked decent when healthy. Only 27 years old. Perfect guy to roster for pennies on the off chance that he pulls a Thomas Jones.

Would you rank him as a top-50 dynasty RB?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Is this based purely on his character? Or do you think he's not an elite talent? Just curious as I know you aren't high on Cutler either... so if neither Cutler or Marshall are elite talents, how do you explain the stats?My feeling on him is that sure, he's a knucklehead, but he has shown himself to be an elite player in the league. He wants to be paid that way. If you pay him, he'll play for you. He's still young, and still has a long career ahead of him (barring a pacman jones style shooting). Let's be honest here. The NFL likes to make a big broo-haha about cracking down on domestic violence and similar crimes among its players, but when push comes to shove, they want their playmakers on the field when they aren't in jail. Marshall will make lots of money for some team and in turn, the NFL, when he is happy with his pay. I think he's an excellent option in dynasty leagues, as he has the talent to be top-10 as a WR, and can be had for cheap by panicking owners.(obviously I'm biased as BOTH Cutler and Marshall are on my dynasty team, but I'm just trying to spark dialogue)

I've never said either player was not an elite talent. Marshall is a Top-10 WR talent even if he does come up short on TD numbers and drops more passes than any WR save Braylon Edwards. Cutler is a Top-5 QB talent -- at least. Cutler's value went down mostly because he lost Mike Shanahan's and Josh McDaniels' offensive friendly system complete with terrific weapons and downgraded heavily in coaching and talent in Chicago. He also lost some luster in my eyes for the startling immaturity he showed this offseason. I don't think the Jeff George comparisons are that outlandish.You can poo-poo Marshall's legal rap sheet and football knucklehead issues all you want, but the guy's always going to be one bad day away from a suspension -- or worse. I never wanted any part of Plaxico Burress, and Marshall is even more of a knucklehead. In Dynasty leagues, I don't like paying a high price for players who can lose a ton of value at a moment's notice. Marshall is one of those players, and he always will be.

 

[SSOG]

My feeling on him is that sure, he's a knucklehead, but he has shown himself to be an elite player in the league. He wants to be paid that way. If you pay him, he'll play for you. He's still young, and still has a long career ahead of him (barring a pacman jones style shooting). Let's be honest here. The NFL likes to make a big broo-haha about cracking down on domestic violence and similar crimes among its players, but when push comes to shove, they want their playmakers on the field when they aren't in jail. Marshall will make lots of money for some team and in turn, the NFL, when he is happy with his pay.

Chris Henry is an incredibly talented WR, too.Two major knocks on Marshall beyond simple knuckleheadedness. First off, have you seen videos of him "practicing" a week or two ago? If not, check it out. This isn't a case of a guy just holding out, he's actively sabotaging his team. Teammates understand when a guy is in contract disputes and stand behind the player... but do you really think teammates are going to stand behind THAT? Second off, he now has a strong and irrefutable history of domestic violence that has no common denominator other than Marshall himself. After a string of domestic disputes, he swore it was the result of a "toxic relationship", said he was turning his life around, and got into a "healthy relationship". Several months later, he was in the news again for domestic disputes with his new, "healthy" girlfriend. If a guy can't stop doing something with that many chances and that much on the line, I have a hard time expecting him to ever stop... and he's already on thin ground with Goodell.

So... a cancer and a suspension waiting to happen. Definite cause for a downgrade beyond whatever ranking he'd merit on talent alone.

 

[stevegamer]

At some point, guys like Marshall will become value plays again - like Chris Henry is doing, and Vick when he was in jail. and now. You hope to move them to a believer when their value pops back up.

However, this is not the time for Marshall, because he's a cancer who runs afoul of the law. He'd fit perfectly in Cincy.

 

[mcintyre1]

Fair enough in regard to Marshall. Like I said, I own him now, so there is certainly bias in my mind (how can there not be?). I think the comparison to Chris Henry isn't fair, though, as Chris Henry was never the #1 receiver for his team. I'm not going to defend Marshall's actions in practice, but at what point does it begin to be Denver's fault just as much as Marshall's?

 

[stevegamer]

Fair enough in regard to Marshall. Like I said, I own him now, so there is certainly bias in my mind (how can there not be?). I think the comparison to Chris Henry isn't fair, though, as Chris Henry was never the #1 receiver for his team. I'm not going to defend Marshall's actions in practice, but at what point does it begin to be Denver's fault just as much as Marshall's?

The Henry comparison is fair due to the off-the-field stuff - maybe Plaxico is a better fit, except Plax did 1 really dumb thing - not sure how much of a sequence of dumb things he's done, but I'm sure there are some. He's "Baby TO" for the on-the-field stuff. I'm not sure we've had anyone combine those 2 factors recently.