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i'm .500 but i feel i have one of the strongest teams. just lost a couple i should have won. i plan on making a run at the title. its a .5 PPR league but its somewhat td heavy because we get 1 point per 15 yards instead of 1 point per 10. i like rice better long-term (i think) but he's just not getting in the end zone yet. in your dynasty rankings jacobs is a tier higher than rice, but that was week 2. has anything changed your mind since then?
Roy Williams was never as good as everyone said he was. In my opinion, he's a guy who *LOOKS* like a WR... as long as he isn't actually, you know, playing WR. At press conferences, he looks like a WR. In shells, he looks like a WR. In full pads standing on the sideline he looks like a WR. If I had to pick a player for an up-and-coming WR to look like, it'd be either Calvin, Andre, or Roy Williams. He also has fancy measurables in addition to simply looking like a WR everywhere except for on the field. That, combined with pedigree and the fact that he put up solid numbers on one of the most pass-crazy offenses of the decade (the Martz Lions), has caused a lot of people to think for a long time that he's actually a talented WR (call it Chris Chambers Syndrom- lots of targets + good physique + occasional highlight = widespread love in fantasy circles). He's really not. He's a very low-end NFL #1, and would make a middling #2. Plus, he's one of the few players who I will actually consider a heightened injury risk. All in all, not a good combination. I don't think I've *ever* liked Roy Williams at his perceived value.
Would you give up a 1st round rookie pick (will be in the 9-12 range) and a reserve WR for Smith? I currently have 2 1st round picks; one of them will be very near the top of the round, the other will be near the end.
Absolutely, I would give up that package for Kevin Smith. I'm not sold that he's a unique talent, either, but picks No. 9-12 in the first round are incredibly over-valued in Dynasty leagues. And reserve WRs grow on trees.I'm interested in some opinions on Kevin Smith's dynasty value. I originally drafted him 7th in my rookie draft last year, then ended up trading him (before he started to play well) in a package deal for Manning (needed to replace an injured Brady). Now that owner is shopping Smith and I'm a little light at RB, especially long-term. I don't think he's ultra-talented, but seems to be in a decent situation in terms of workload, not city.Would you give up a 1st round rookie pick (will be in the 9-12 range) and a reserve WR for Smith? I currently have 2 1st round picks; one of them will be very near the top of the round, the other will be near the end. Looking at my team, what kind of offer would you make (if any)?thanks!
I'd definitely give a late first and a reserve WR for Smith. He's not a phenomenal talent, but he'll be a quality fantasy contributor for a couple of years, and late firsts are among the most overrated commodities in fantasy football. To put some names to that pick range... this year, the 9th-12th picks in my dynasty league were Jeremy Maclin, Shonn Greene, Matthew Stafford, and Glen Coffee. Last year, it was Steve Slaton, Felix Jones, DeSean Jackson, and James Hardy. In 2007, it was Michael Bush, Robert Meachem, Brady Quinn, and Ted Ginn. Of those 12 players, Kevin Smith for ______ + reserve WR would be a great trade, by my count, in 9 instances, a bad trade in one instance (DeSean), and a roughly equal trade in two instances (Slaton and Jones). Plus present production is worth more than future production and you get a bonus for getting Kevin Smith now (while that 9th-through-12th pick won't produce until next year), *AND* the addition of Kevin Smith to your roster increases the chances that the pick you give up is a lower one.In the end, it comes down to what we're talking about when you say "reserve WR". Mike Sims-Walker? No. Andre Caldwell? Yes. I don't think I'd have a problem doing that trade for my first rounder and any WR ranked 36th or lower on F&L's most recent dynasty rankings.I'm interested in some opinions on Kevin Smith's dynasty value. I originally drafted him 7th in my rookie draft last year, then ended up trading him (before he started to play well) in a package deal for Manning (needed to replace an injured Brady). Now that owner is shopping Smith and I'm a little light at RB, especially long-term. I don't think he's ultra-talented, but seems to be in a decent situation in terms of workload, not city.Would you give up a 1st round rookie pick (will be in the 9-12 range) and a reserve WR for Smith? I currently have 2 1st round picks; one of them will be very near the top of the round, the other will be near the end. Looking at my team, what kind of offer would you make (if any)?thanks!
I was actually going to make a post last night about reserve WRs growing on trees, and how mediocre WRs are the currency of Dynasty leagues (unlike redraft leagues, where mediocre RBs are the currency). Maybe I'll post my thoughts on the subject later tonight.
I flip receivers every off-season. You pick them up early in the season, they perform like starters, then you move them in the off-season. Guys like Breaston, A.Bryant, and Lance Moore. This year maybe Kelley Washington.
not sure i would...reggie's overrated...it depends on the rostersmaybe i'm biased but it seems like he's always either injured or underperforming whenever I'm looking (playing his owner, or his team's playing a team i like)
Rosterwise it fits, i'm loaded with "potential" at RB, ie Jamaal Charles, Dmac, M.Bush, Stewart, Felix...but not a lot of point production at this very moment.But Mike Walker is an injury concern too remember, he is another knee injury or 2 away from being done.Just can't decide how valuable I think Walker is long term, even though he is suddenly putting up great numbers right now.
You certainly don't.F&L says that he doesn't do cross-positional rankings because that depends so heavily on lineups and scoring systems. If you're in a 2 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex PPR league, then RBs are worth barely anything. If you're in a 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex league, then RBs are the key to your team. Regardless, in standard FBGs scoring and with relatively standard lineups (1/2/3/1), I'd be able to shoot that down. Bush is never going to be a decent start in standard FBGs scoring systems, which basically means he's quality depth and a bye-week filler for as long as he stays healthy (and there's reason to question how long that'll be). If you think Sims-Walker is going to be a fixture in your starting lineup, I'd generally prefer that.
True; in a vacuum it's not auto accept.In my case it's PPR with 1 QB 2 RB 3WR - 1 DEF - 1 WR/RB/TE - and 1 QB/RB/WR/TE/DEF flexI went WR heavy early and own Megatron/Vjax/Bowe/Evans
Sometimes it's as simple as this: Would I trade a player I believe in for a player I no longer believe in? Despite Sims-Walker's high injury risk, I believe in his talent and his chance to be an every-week fantasy starter. Reggie Bush is nothing more than a role player in the Saints offense. PPR complicates things a bit, but I'd still have a hard time pulling the trigger on a player when I've lost the faith.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I went out of my way to acquire Pierre in a dynasty league and overpaid for him last weekend.That being said here are some reasons/answers to your questions:
Colts President Bill Polian has been addressing the talent issue and his statements last week caused me to pull the trigger and overpay for Garcon. Here's some of what Polian said just last week:
As if that wasn't enough Bill Polian again followed up this week by heaping even more praise upon Garcon and his long-term future success with the Colts and talks HOF this time!
I would be more concerned about Collie and Gonzalez if Polian was just talking up entire WR core, but he's not... Even though Collie had a great game this past week against Seattle. Instead he's still going out of his way to single out Garcon, and express that the Colts believe they have something very special in Pierre. I think this may be more than 'fluff'.Now combine Polian's strong feelings about Pierre with the fact that Garcon is best suited to take over Harrison's old role in the offense, and that Peyton Manning will be slinging footballs around Indy for several more years to come, and suddently Garcon becomes quite an interesting proposition IMO.
Seriously, can we stop with comments like that. Peyton Manning is a knee injury or two away from being done as well. I mean, I understand you want to be a litle careful if a guy has been hurt. But just because a guy has been hurt doesn't mean he's any more likely to get hurt again.
I'll agree with you that it's nonsense to say that Mike Walker is 1-2 knee injuries from being done but you are kidding yourself if a history of injuries doesn't mean anything. We see it across all sports. Some players just can't stay healthy and are justly labeled as injury prone. Now that MSW is getting more and more time on the field he's got his chance to prove he's not one of those players.
F&L's one of the bigger Pierre fans you'll find. As for what's keeping him out of the top 10... personally, I refuse to rank someone in the top 10 if his head coach was seriously considering giving his job to Mike Bell when both players were healthy. Even if Pierre holds off Bell this season... that vote of no confidence leads me to believe it's a matter of when, not if, a new RB comes in to replace Pierre.
That's pretty much it. I wrote this article less than a month ago. Highlights are as follows:
Now it sounds like I was supremely confident in Thomas regaining the lead-back role, but that's not really the case. I drafted P.T. as my No. 2 back in the recent FB Guys Dynasty Thread startup league, and I was sweating bullets about the first two weeks of the season. It's not just that Payton was so willing to put his eggs in Mike Bell's basket. It's also that guys that are one step from being a street free agent (Bell and Aaron Stecker) have shown that they produce outstanding numbers against the six-man fronts that come from having Drew Brees and the Saints passing attack on your side.
Good stuff, geoff. I'll have to do more homework on our favorite French waiter. I still question everybody writing off Gonzalez simply because he's momentarily out of the picture, but I'll keep an open mind on the future of the Colts receivers.
I'm not writing off Gonzalez, but I do think that Garcon has to be significantly higher than Austin Collie right now, based both on production/buzz to date and upside. I'd definitely put Garcon in Johnnie Knox / Mike Wallace territory. And I'm saying this as someone who just traded him away.
in a dynasty league you should be willing to give up a little less than you would for westbrook. westbrook is almost done. he misses games every year, so mccoy will always have games where you can start him. and next year, or the year after that at the latest, it will be shady's job. i wish i had him.
McCoy will cost you a lot. The way it works with these highly-drafted young backs is that, rightly or wrongly, everyone who owns them in dynasty leagues thinks they've just drafted the next Marshall Faulk. Doesn't matter that he could just as easily be the next Julius Jones or Joseph Addai. Owners consistently overvalue this type of player.My guess is that you'll have to pay through the nose to get McCoy (especially in PPR). I think he would cost MORE than Westbrook at this point. You'll probably have to give up a top young prospect or a reliable veteran in the prime of his career. If you offer anything less than the farm, you can expect a quick rejection and a ridiculous response along the lines of "Thanks, but there are only 5 RBs I would take for McCoy right now."
Handcuffs only have more value if they're not the heir apparent. Chester Taylor has more value to a Peterson owner. Moats has more value to a Slaton owner. Wynn has more value to a Grant owner. I think the price of McCoy is going to be high regardless of whether you own Westbrook. I would not pay more for Shady McCoy than I would for Wells or D.Brown just because I have Westbrook. His price is going to be pretty high. Looking at guys ranked ahead of him, there's little chance you're going to get him in a 1-for-1 for an older RB like Westbrook, LT, Portis, a failing RB like Slaton or Bush, or a boring RB like Grant.
Many of you guys simply leave me dumbfounded by how quick you are to label guys (Slaton a failing RB) and change opinions and positions on players after a measly 4 weeks of play. Slaton is currently ranked 20th in 1pt PPR leagues and is coming off of 14pt and 21pt efforts the past two weeks. When he puts together another couple of good games over the next few weeks, he could easily be right back amongst the Top 10 or on its fringe. I would hardly label a player a failure at this point of the season as there is a whole lot of football yet to be played. That pretty much goes for a host of players who have yet to start off ablaze, or at least underperforming based on owners' "give-it-to-me-now-and-always" expectations.
RB20 in ppr, but the argument could be made (based on the fumbles) that he's failing as an NFL back so far this yeari know he had a good game last game but still, the fumble numbers are not encouraging
I was at the Houston/Oakland game last week, and I would not classify Slaton's game as "good". His fantasy numbers look nice because he had two TDs, but those might have been the only two positive plays he made all day.Actually, looking at the play by play, he had five good plays. The rest of his day looked like this:1-10-HOU37 (14:56) S.Slaton left guard to HST 37 for no gain (R.Seymour, T.Branch).1-10-HOU48 (13:46) S.Slaton right end to OAK 49 for 3 yards (G.Warren, T.Kelly).2-10-OAK44 (12:50) S.Slaton up the middle to OAK 45 for -1 yards (K.Morrison).1-7-OAK7 (9:08) S.Slaton right guard to OAK 8 for -1 yards (T.Kelly, R.Seymour).1-5-HOU49 (5:57) S.Slaton right tackle to HST 49 for no gain (T.Kelly).2-5-HOU49 (5:20) S.Slaton left tackle to HST 47 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by OAK-M.Shaughnessy at HST 43. M.Shaughnessy to HST 43 for no gain (K.Studdard).1-10-OAK17 (9:34) S.Slaton right guard to OAK 19 for -2 yards (T.Howard, T.Kelly).2-12-OAK19 (8:58) S.Slaton left tackle to OAK 18 for 1 yard (K.Morrison, T.Kelly).1-10-HOU26 (12:42) S.Slaton right tackle to HST 26 for no gain (T.Kelly, K.Morrison).2-10-HOU26 (12:07) S.Slaton left end to HST 22 for -4 yards (G.Warren).3-14-HOU22 (11:24) M.Schaub pass short left to S.Slaton to HST 28 for 6 yards (R.Brown, R.Seymour).3-14-HOU12
51) S.Slaton left guard to HST 16 for 4 yards (G.Warren, R.Brown).1-10-HOU35 (12:39) S.Slaton right tackle to HST 35 for no gain (R.Brown).1-10-OAK20 (10:09) S.Slaton left guard to OAK 19 for 1 yard (T.Kelly).1-10-HOU19 (7:10) S.Slaton left guard to HST 23 for 4 yards (R.Brown, T.Kelly).2-6-HOU23 (6:27) S.Slaton right guard to HST 26 for 3 yards (R.Brown).3-3-HOU26 (5:43) S.Slaton up the middle to HST 28 for 2 yards (M.Mitchell, J.Richardson).Houston only faced 2nd down and 5 or fewer yards to go 5 times. Once was after a Steve Slaton run, once after an offsides penalty, and three times after a Moats run. Moats had 7 carries on first down, and managed 4+ yards on five of them. Slaton had 12 carries on first down, and managed 4+ yards on three of them. It was really night and day how Houston's drives kept getting into 2nd-and-manageable, 3rd-and-manageable with Moats on the field, and how they kept getting stranded in 2nd-and-forever, 3rd-and-forever with Slaton on the field. I'm a Denver fan, so I know how that offense is supposed to look (avoiding obvious passing downs, always getting positive yardage), and Slaton really looked terrible carrying the ball in that offense.yeah that's generally my point. I was facing the guy, so although I was watching the game on a different TV i was tracking the live stats, and it looked like he played pretty bad but then had a couple big plays. I'm not typically a "take out the big play" cherrypicker, but when the other carries fit the pattern he's been showing the rest of the season it's not encouragingI was at the Houston/Oakland game last week, and I would not classify Slaton's game as "good". His fantasy numbers look nice because he had two TDs, but those might have been the only two positive plays he made all day.Actually, looking at the play by play, he had five good plays. The rest of his day looked like this:1-10-HOU37 (14:56) S.Slaton left guard to HST 37 for no gain (R.Seymour, T.Branch).1-10-HOU48 (13:46) S.Slaton right end to OAK 49 for 3 yards (G.Warren, T.Kelly).2-10-OAK44 (12:50) S.Slaton up the middle to OAK 45 for -1 yards (K.Morrison).1-7-OAK7 (9:08) S.Slaton right guard to OAK 8 for -1 yards (T.Kelly, R.Seymour).1-5-HOU49 (5:57) S.Slaton right tackle to HST 49 for no gain (T.Kelly).2-5-HOU49 (5:20) S.Slaton left tackle to HST 47 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by OAK-M.Shaughnessy at HST 43. M.Shaughnessy to HST 43 for no gain (K.Studdard).1-10-OAK17 (9:34) S.Slaton right guard to OAK 19 for -2 yards (T.Howard, T.Kelly).2-12-OAK19 (8:58) S.Slaton left tackle to OAK 18 for 1 yard (K.Morrison, T.Kelly).1-10-HOU26 (12:42) S.Slaton right tackle to HST 26 for no gain (T.Kelly, K.Morrison).2-10-HOU26 (12:07) S.Slaton left end to HST 22 for -4 yards (G.Warren).3-14-HOU22 (11:24) M.Schaub pass short left to S.Slaton to HST 28 for 6 yards (R.Brown, R.Seymour).3-14-HOU12
So were Chris Johnson, MJD, and DeAngelo Williams "failing" RBs after 5 weeks last season since they were ranked 13th, 16th, and 20th, respectively, after 5 weeks of play in 2008. My point is that labeling guys failures and busts is simply too simplistic after 4 weeks of a 16 week fantasy season. And more often than not, these labels tend to be very inaccurate when it is all said and done. Tons of football left and you nor I can know for certain who will be the guys to emerge, so why use the misleading labels?
Chris Johnson had 380 rushing yards at 4.5 ypc. MJD had 4.1 ypc, 3 rushing TDs, and a 2-year track record. DeAngelo had 320 yards at 4.3 ypc. Steve Slaton so far has 192 yards at 3.3 ypc. Do you not see the difference? Williams/MJD/CJ3 had head coaches looking for ways to get them the ball more. Slaton has a head coach looking for ways to get him the ball less (seriously, losing carries to RYAN MOATS). Not the slightest bit comparable.Edit: I forgot to mention Slaton's 4 fumbles in 4 games.
Still curious to hear your thoughts on this... Nicks is loaded with talent and will likely be starting sooner rather than later. In every chance he's been given so far, whether in preseason or regular season, he has flashed his sick talent. He seems like a guy who can do it all.
Not sure I agree with your interpretation here. Moats had four carries until the end of the 3rd Quarter - when his team was winning 29-6.
OK! Number-crunching, googling stats, whatever, whatever...Here is what I see.The number one key, without a doubt, to any running game is the o-line. And yes, I watched quite a bit of the Texans-Jets, none of the Texans-Jags, a little bit of the Texans-Titans, and every snap of the Texans-Raiders game. To put it mildly, the Texans' o-line has gotten their ###e$ whooped on a consistent basis week-in and week-out. So displaying these numbers here means little to what I see and evaluate, 'cause player evaluation extends far beyond boxscores, fantasy numbers, and play-by-play logs. Do you not see this difference?
Good point.....
Of course I see the difference. As I said, I was at the game. I saw Slaton play. I was using the play by play to illustrate what I saw to anyone who might not have seen it. I've found that "Here's what I saw, I know what I'm talking about" doesn't always work, so I try to provide some objective support to back up my opinions.As I'm very fond of saying, I don't use numbers to form my opinions, I use numbers to INFORM my opinions.
I don't change horses mid-stream, either. I'm riding the exact same horse I've always been riding- the "Slaton isn't anywhere near as talented as you think he is" horse.
As a Slaton owner, you're not alarmed? Even if Slaton's underperformance is wholly and absolutely the result of a terrible offensive line... isn't he going to be straddled with this same line for a while? And if Slaton's performance is a result of the line, why is his coach giving more work to his backups (who, it must be noted, still play behind the same line)? Is Houston's offensive line really that much worse than it was last year? And is the offensive line the reason Slaton's on pace for 16 fumbles this season?Slightly different question. You've seen Slaton this year. Do you believe he's lost any explosiveness? What result has his additional weight had on his playstyle and effectiveness?Edit: more on the fumbles. The highest fumble total by a non-QB in NFL history was 16 by Joe Cribbs... but Cribbs was also a punt returner. Terry Metcalf had 15 one year, but he was a returner, too. The most fumbles by a true RB without return duties was 14.
