Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm very leery of Steve Smith and Mario Manningham at the moment. I think they're both better than I thought they were at the beginning of the year, but I have a hard time moving either guy into my top 30. For one thing, Eli Manning is a 5-year vet (which means by this point he is what we think he is), and in his five year career he's only topped 3350 passing yards ONCE (and that was "only" 3762 yards, a total that has been beaten a whopping 36 times in the past 5 years). He's *NEVER* thrown more than 24 TDs. For each of the past three years, Manning has been good for between 3238 and 3336 yards passing and between 21 and 24 TDs. He's actually been rather remarkable in his consistency, to be honest. The Giants passing offense simply hasn't been a potent passing attack, and I don't think Eli's going to suddenly turn into Peyton on us.Now, despite the pedestrian passing totals, Plaxico Burress still managed to be a consistent low-end WR1 with Eli (WR11, WR12, and WR10 in his three full seasons as a Giant). This, however, brings me to the second reason why I'm relatively lukewarm towards Steve Smith: the Giants have a lot more mouths to feed now than they did a year or two ago. Is Steve Smith the #1 WR in that offense? Is Mario Manningham? Is Hakeem Nicks? Is Dominik Hixon a forgotten man or is he going to factor into things again?I've moved Smith and Manningham up into the WR30-40 range, but I'm having a hard time moving either higher than that given all the questions I still have unanswered with respect to the Giants passing game.

Nicely said. I think the 30-40 range is right where they belong. I have Manningham probably in the early 30s and Smith probably closer to 40 or so.

 

[KingDain]

Fear, how do rank Mandenhall after thee last 2 weeks?

Is he still going to be the Steelers Feature Back, or is better to hold on a guy like James Davis that probably is going to have a shot to be the new n°1 back before season ends?

 

[WFR]

Also interested in hearing about Mendenhall becasue I just traded for him in a 12-team dynasty league. I think it's just a matter of time.

Also, can anyone here give me some insight on Andre Caldwell and Mike Wallace? Thinking of taking a flier on either in my keeper league since I'm woefully short on decent WR's.

 

[travdogg]

What are everyone's thoughts on Vernon Davis? Is he finally turning the corner, or is his recent production just a mirage? Is he a top-10 guy?

 

[jdoggydogg]

I'm very leery of Steve Smith and Mario Manningham at the moment. I think they're both better than I thought they were at the beginning of the year, but I have a hard time moving either guy into my top 30. For one thing, Eli Manning is a 5-year vet (which means by this point he is what we think he is), and in his five year career he's only topped 3350 passing yards ONCE (and that was "only" 3762 yards, a total that has been beaten a whopping 36 times in the past 5 years). He's *NEVER* thrown more than 24 TDs. For each of the past three years, Manning has been good for between 3238 and 3336 yards passing and between 21 and 24 TDs. He's actually been rather remarkable in his consistency, to be honest. The Giants passing offense simply hasn't been a potent passing attack, and I don't think Eli's going to suddenly turn into Peyton on us.Now, despite the pedestrian passing totals, Plaxico Burress still managed to be a consistent low-end WR1 with Eli (WR11, WR12, and WR10 in his three full seasons as a Giant). This, however, brings me to the second reason why I'm relatively lukewarm towards Steve Smith: the Giants have a lot more mouths to feed now than they did a year or two ago. Is Steve Smith the #1 WR in that offense? Is Mario Manningham? Is Hakeem Nicks? Is Dominik Hixon a forgotten man or is he going to factor into things again?I've moved Smith and Manningham up into the WR30-40 range, but I'm having a hard time moving either higher than that given all the questions I still have unanswered with respect to the Giants passing game.

It occurs to me that the Giants have two things that are warning signs in this case:1) A very good defense.2) A good running game.While it seems like Manningham and Smith have plenty of talent, I have to believe that as the weather gets colder, Manning will throw a lot less - which hurts all the NY receivers.

 

[jdoggydogg]

What are everyone's thoughts on Vernon Davis? Is he finally turning the corner, or is his recent production just a mirage? Is he a top-10 guy?

I've always been a Davis hater. His hands were not good and he had a poor attitude. But this seems to be a telling stat:TE Targets:Vernon Davis 23Dallas Clark 23Antonio Gates 23Jason Witten 23Only Carlson, Winslow, and Celek have more TE targets through three games. Davis is being used in that offense a lot this year, and SF does not have a lot of WR options. Long term, Davis seems to be "getting it." His attitude has improved so much that he's now a team captain, and by all accounts, his blocking is very good now.

 

[dmac37]

I'm very leery of Steve Smith and Mario Manningham at the moment. I think they're both better than I thought they were at the beginning of the year, but I have a hard time moving either guy into my top 30. For one thing, Eli Manning is a 5-year vet (which means by this point he is what we think he is), and in his five year career he's only topped 3350 passing yards ONCE (and that was "only" 3762 yards, a total that has been beaten a whopping 36 times in the past 5 years). He's *NEVER* thrown more than 24 TDs. For each of the past three years, Manning has been good for between 3238 and 3336 yards passing and between 21 and 24 TDs. He's actually been rather remarkable in his consistency, to be honest. The Giants passing offense simply hasn't been a potent passing attack, and I don't think Eli's going to suddenly turn into Peyton on us.Now, despite the pedestrian passing totals, Plaxico Burress still managed to be a consistent low-end WR1 with Eli (WR11, WR12, and WR10 in his three full seasons as a Giant). This, however, brings me to the second reason why I'm relatively lukewarm towards Steve Smith: the Giants have a lot more mouths to feed now than they did a year or two ago. Is Steve Smith the #1 WR in that offense? Is Mario Manningham? Is Hakeem Nicks? Is Dominik Hixon a forgotten man or is he going to factor into things again?I've moved Smith and Manningham up into the WR30-40 range, but I'm having a hard time moving either higher than that given all the questions I still have unanswered with respect to the Giants passing game.

Nicely said. I think the 30-40 range is right where they belong. I have Manningham probably in the early 30s and Smith probably closer to 40 or so.

I think Smith will be the starting NYG possession WR for years to come and put up good numbers in PPR.My question is who will be the other starting WR on opening day of 2010, Manningham or Nicks?

 

[valhallan]

Roster albatross.

I think Tony Scheffler falls into this category as well.

 

[travdogg]

Roster albatross.

I think Tony Scheffler falls into this category as well.

Not sure I see a similarity between Quinn and Scheffler.Scheffler has proven he is a quality NFL talent, his situation isn't the best right now, but its far more likely to improve than Quinn's, plus Scheffler is a FA at the end of this year. Scheffler could be a top-10 TE in a better situation.

 

[valhallan]

Roster albatross.

I think Tony Scheffler falls into this category as well.

Not sure I see a similarity between Quinn and Scheffler.Scheffler has proven he is a quality NFL talent, his situation isn't the best right now, but its far more likely to improve than Quinn's, plus Scheffler is a FA at the end of this year. Scheffler could be a top-10 TE in a better situation.

I didn't say Quinn and Scheffler are similar. I said Scheffler could fit into a "roster albatross" category. He sits on my roster not as a starter but as a guy I expected to serve as my backup yet he can't be relied on for even that simple task. He fetches nothing in trade yet his history says I can't drop him. Feels like a roster albatross.ETA:In other words, I think we typically have about three roles for TEs on our rosters:- start (gonzo, clark, etc)- backup (m.lewis, h.miller)- prospect (finley, cook)Scheffler falls into none of those categories, and causes me to hold an extra TE so i can fill those spots.

 

[SSOG]

Roster albatross.

I have no problem hanging onto an albatross for a year or two. If he looks as bad after 16 starts as he does after 6, then I'll just cut him. In the mean time, my league's deep enough that it's not like there's no room to stash an albatross or two and hope they go all Cedric Benson on everyone.(says the guy who's still carrying Michael Clayton)

Fear, how do rank Mandenhall after thee last 2 weeks?Is he still going to be the Steelers Feature Back, or is better to hold on a guy like James Davis that probably is going to have a shot to be the new n°1 back before season ends?

I'm about 75% convinced that Mendenhall has the starting job in Pittsburgh next year, and a starting RB carries inherent value regardless of how "worthless" he might have looked in his opportunities to date (witness: Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, etc). Plus, what does Mendenhall have in common with the two aforementioned RBs? Pedigree!If you can trade him for a guy whose talent you really believe in, then go for it. If you can acquire him for a guy whose talent you don't believe in, go for it. If not, then hold and see what happens when he gets his shot.

Also, can anyone here give me some insight on Andre Caldwell and Mike Wallace? Thinking of taking a flier on either in my keeper league since I'm woefully short on decent WR's.

Andre Caldwell has been getting a lot of reps in the Housh role, and he's looked good doing it. He's earning Palmer's trust. Coles isn't old by NFL standards, but he's looking washed up, and Henry's playing a different position, so I think if Caldwell continues demonstrating what he can do this year, he can carve out a starting role for years to come.I haven't seen as much from Pittsburgh, so I don't have as good of a read on Wallace. I was impressed with him in week 1, although I picked up Louis Murphy and Andre Caldwell over him that week based on what I saw from them (and, admittedly, a little bit out of homerism). For a guy who claims to not have a doghouse, Mike Tomlin was certainly fitting Limas Sweed with a collar at his last press conference, which makes it look like Mississippi Mike's got the #3 job locked up going forward. Ward's 33 and a half. Based on aging patterns of other great WRs, he's got at least one more year as a starter after this year, and almost certainly two. Is Mike Wallace talented enough to stave off all challengers for his job over the next two years while waiting for Ward to fade out of the offense? I don't know- like I said, I haven't seen enough from him to get a good read yet. Decent gamble, though, but I'd take Caldwell over him because Caldwell is more polished right now, has less immediate competition, and because I've seen more from him and I'm more convinced that he has what it takes to be an NFL starter. Also, Cincy has historically been a more wide-open passing attack than Pittsburgh (although I wouldn't be shocked if Pitt really started opening it up over the next year or two).

It occurs to me that the Giants have two things that are warning signs in this case:1) A very good defense.2) A good running game.While it seems like Manningham and Smith have plenty of talent, I have to believe that as the weather gets colder, Manning will throw a lot less - which hurts all the NY receivers.

Defenses and running games change. They're concerns in redraft, but the only thing that scares me off of them in dynasty is talent (theirs, Eli's, and the talent of their competition).

 

[WFR]

Thanks for the feedback on Mendenhall, Caldwell and Wallace!

That helps a lot!

 

[valhallan]

Re: Caldwell - I was just watching the NFL Replay of the Pit-Cin game and Palmer said Caldwell "is in TJ's spot so he'll get those passes". Definitely sounds like a starter with his quarterback's confidence.

 

[SSOG]

What are everyone's thoughts on Vernon Davis? Is he finally turning the corner, or is his recent production just a mirage? Is he a top-10 guy?

Vernon's a guy we discussed a bit back in '07. A bit of the discussion can be found right here (along with a discussion on the use of yards vs. TDs as a predictive tool- it's fun to point out that after posting 7 TDs on 47 catches in 2007, Miller has 3 TDs on 64 catches since). Some more can be found here. The real meat of my opinions on him is right here. Not much has changed in the past 2 years, to be perfectly honest. Davis is still not a starter-caliber fantasy TE, but the difference between various different non-elite TEs is negligible, and Davis still has a better chance than most to really light things up some day. Remember, Vernon Davis is only 25 years old. He's essentially the same age as John Carlson, and just 6 months older than Dustin Keller. I don't have any problem with ranking him as a dynasty TE10-12 kind of guy, although with the glut of talented young TEs that have come into the league recently, I'd have a hard time going any higher than that.It was actually kind of fun looking back at those posts. I wound up making several really good "pat myself on the back" calls on those pages. I'm sure I've made some equally atrocious calls elsewhere in this thread, but since they weren't on the pages I was looking at... out of sight, out of mind.

I didn't say Quinn and Scheffler are similar. I said Scheffler could fit into a "roster albatross" category. He sits on my roster not as a starter but as a guy I expected to serve as my backup yet he can't be relied on for even that simple task. He fetches nothing in trade yet his history says I can't drop him. Feels like a roster albatross.

ETA:

In other words, I think we typically have about three roles for TEs on our rosters:

- start (gonzo, clark, etc)

- backup (m.lewis, h.miller)

- prospect (finley, cook)

Scheffler falls into none of those categories, and causes me to hold an extra TE so i can fill those spots.

You don't trust Scheffler as a backup? Last year, TE17 had 45/579/1 and TE18 had 32/389/4. Sure, Scheffler's currently on pace for 16/240/5, but it would take barely any bump at all in his numbers to reach TE17/TE18 levels... and even if he doesn't, the PPG difference between TE18 and TE24 (which is where Scheffler's currently ranked) is negligible. Meanwhile, Scheffler's one of the most natural pure receivers at the TE position in the league right now, and has top-5 fantasy TE upside, meaning Scheffler's capable of being backup and prospect at the same time.I'd rather own Scheffler than Lewis, Miller, Finley, or Cook. Heck, depending on the rest of my roster, I might even prefer him to Tony Gonzalez (who I have listed on my "get out while you can!" list).

 

[valhallan]

You don't trust Scheffler as a backup? Last year, TE17 had 45/579/1 and TE18 had 32/389/4. Sure, Scheffler's currently on pace for 16/240/5, but it would take barely any bump at all in his numbers to reach TE17/TE18 levels... and even if he doesn't, the PPG difference between TE18 and TE24 (which is where Scheffler's currently ranked) is negligible. Meanwhile, Scheffler's one of the most natural pure receivers at the TE position in the league right now, and has top-5 fantasy TE upside, meaning Scheffler's capable of being backup and prospect at the same time.I'd rather own Scheffler than Lewis, Miller, Finley, or Cook. Heck, depending on the rest of my roster, I might even prefer him to Tony Gonzalez (who I have listed on my "get out while you can!" list).

Actually, he's TE33 right now in PPR. I understand his year-end totals have been worthwhile, but its the maddening inconsistency he showed last year with possibly the best quarterback he'll ever have coupled with this years abysmal outlook that have me frustrated. I agree he has top-5 skills but even with his supposed best friend under center he strung together back-to-back 10-point games in PPR only once last year (wks 14) and just twice in 2007 (wks 8 & 9). The rest of his 10-point games were followed by big clunkers. That's the kind of guy I'd like to sell after a big game but other owners view him like a Ben Watson type that shows up every 3 or 4 weeks.. and they're not that far off, really.edit for clarity

 

[SSOG]

Actually, he's TE33 right now in PPR. I understand his year-end totals have been worthwhile, but its the maddening inconsistency he showed last year with possibly the best quarterback he'll ever have coupled with this years abysmal outlook that have me frustrated. I agree he has top-5 skills but even with his supposed best friend under center he strung together back-to-back 10-point games in PPR only once last year (wks 14) and just twice in 2007 (wks 8 & 9). The rest of his 10-point games were followed by big clunkers. That's the kind of guy I'd like to sell after a big game but other owners view him like a Ben Watson type that shows up every 3 or 4 weeks.. and they're not that far off, really.edit for clarity

Never played a PPR league, so I don't have a good feel for player values there. With that being said, consistency's overrated. Personally, I don't see much difference between a guy who scores 10 points every week and a guy who alternates 20 point games and 0 point games. Sure, the first guy will help you a little bit a lot of the time... but the second guy will help you a lot a little bit of the time. Consistency's not inherently any more valuable (outside of some risk management situations when you have a dominant team). Especially from a TE position, where the guys after the top tier or two average so few points per game that the consistent guys are just consistently doing very little to help your cause. From my QB, RB1, WR1, then I might prefer some consistency. From my fringe guys, I'm all about explosive upside.Also, I think it's really, really hard to knock what Scheffler did last season. Remember, he broke his foot in the offseason, missed all of TCs and preseason, and only played in 13 games. He finished last year 6th in PPG (again, non-PPR), ahead of Owen Daniels, Kellen Winslow, John Carlson, Chris Cooley, Anthony Fasano, Greg Olsen, and Zach Miller. So with his "supposed best friend under center" he was TE6 despite missing all of TCs and preseason and getting injured midseason. Besides, back-to-back 10 point games in PPR is a pretty arbitrary measure of greatness, but even then... compare him to his peers. Scheffler had back to back 10 point games twice last year (not once) in 13 games (he had a 10 pointer in week 5, missed 6, 7, and 8 to injury, and had another 10 pointer in week 9). He had a stretch of 4 ten-pointers in 5 games played in the middle of the season (again, counting only games he played), and he also had stretches of 8-24-7 points and 7-12 points. Other than Gates/Witten/Gonzo, who did better in that respect? Zach Miller had back to back 10 pointers 3 times in 16 games. John Carlson had back to back 10 pointers 3 times in 16 games. Visanthe Shiancoe, last year's surprise top-5 TE, didn't have back-to-back 10 point games a SINGLE TIME last year. Owen Daniels did it twice in 16 games. Outside of the top tier, there simply ARE NOT ANY consistent TEs. None. If you hold a TE out of the top 10 unless he's consistent, then your top 10 must only be 4 players strong.I'm not saying that Tony Scheffler should be the #5 dynasty TE or anything, I'm just suggesting that Tony Scheffler is easily one of the top 24 dynasty TEs, so unless teams are only carrying one TE on their roster, Scheffler is fully deserving of a roster spot. He's got plenty of top 5 potential (as evidenced by his #6 PPG finish last year), and he's one of the best receivers at the TE position in the game today. Best of all, he's a free agent after this season, and undoubtedly whichever team solicits his services is a team that plans on relying heavily on the TE. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him wind up in Houston, for instance (Owen Daniels is in the last year of his contract and says he wants to be the highest-paid TE in the league). What do you think that might do to his fantasy value?

 

[KingDain]

Thank you SSOG for your Feedback on Mendenhall.

I was asking you about him because in a Dynasty i got offered a 2011 First Round Switch for Mendenhall. My team is below average but improving fastly, his team is above average, so i can think of something like a 1.06 for a 1.09 (16 Teams) plus Mendenhall.

Please Consider that i can have in my roster no more than 7 total RB + WR and i already have Josh Morgan / Eddie Royal / Percy Harvin / Jamaal Charles / James Davis / LeSean McCoy / Felix Jones.

Would you Cut James Davis and do this trade?

Thanks Man

 

[SSOG]

Thank you SSOG for your Feedback on Mendenhall.I was asking you about him because in a Dynasty i got offered a 2011 First Round Switch for Mendenhall. My team is below average but improving fastly, his team is above average, so i can think of something like a 1.06 for a 1.09 (16 Teams) plus Mendenhall.Please Consider that i can have in my roster no more than 7 total RB + WR and i already have Josh Morgan / Eddie Royal / Percy Harvin / Jamaal Charles / James Davis / LeSean McCoy / Felix Jones.Would you Cut James Davis and do this trade?Thanks Man

There are two schools of thought you can go with.On the one hand... a draft pick swap TWO YEARS OUT? Who the heck knows who'll be drafting where two years out? I only have a vague idea of where everyone will be drafting ONE year out. He's basically giving you a likely starting RB for a 50% shot at moving up (and a 50% shot at moving down). Ask him if he'll throw in Nate Burleson if you swap draft picks in 2018 while you're at it. I mean, unless the other guy is truly stacked (ADP, MJD, Brees, Fitz, Andre Johnson, Witten), or unless you're really hosed (JaMarcus Russell, Willie Parker, Julius Jones, Laveranues Coles, Shaun Nelson), then it's probably a good move.On the other hand... if his team really is good (i.e. top 2 in the league) or your team really is bad (bottom 2 in the league), then I wouldn't do the deal, simple due to risk management. If your pick winds up being significantly lower than his anyway, then you didn't need Mendenhall in the first place. If your pick winds up being significantly higher than his anyway, then you needed that pick a heck of a lot more than you needed Mendenhall.At that point, it comes down to how confident you are that your team isn't terrible and his team isn't great. Mendenhall is a non-trivial asset, but at the same time, he's also not likely the kind of guy who will shape your franchise. If you think both teams are in the middle 50-66% of the league, then pull the trigger. If not, then don't.

 

[stevegamer]

Thank you SSOG for your Feedback on Mendenhall.I was asking you about him because in a Dynasty i got offered a 2011 First Round Switch for Mendenhall. My team is below average but improving fastly, his team is above average, so i can think of something like a 1.06 for a 1.09 (16 Teams) plus Mendenhall.Please Consider that i can have in my roster no more than 7 total RB + WR and i already have Josh Morgan / Eddie Royal / Percy Harvin / Jamaal Charles / James Davis / LeSean McCoy / Felix Jones.Would you Cut James Davis and do this trade?Thanks Man

If I read this right, you would get Mendenhall & a future 1st, and give a future 1st in the same draft, and it's 2 years out? I like that kind of deal a lot, since you've got a decent shot to upgrade your draft pick as well. I'd see if you could move one of your other guys so you don't have to cut anyone and get something in return. If you didn't have the roster restiction, it'd be easy.

 

[valhallan]

Actually, he's TE33 right now in PPR. I understand his year-end totals have been worthwhile, but its the maddening inconsistency he showed last year with possibly the best quarterback he'll ever have coupled with this years abysmal outlook that have me frustrated. I agree he has top-5 skills but even with his supposed best friend under center he strung together back-to-back 10-point games in PPR only once last year (wks 14) and just twice in 2007 (wks 8 & 9). The rest of his 10-point games were followed by big clunkers. That's the kind of guy I'd like to sell after a big game but other owners view him like a Ben Watson type that shows up every 3 or 4 weeks.. and they're not that far off, really.edit for clarity

Never played a PPR league, so I don't have a good feel for player values there. With that being said, consistency's overrated.

Actually, consistency is a big part of PPR or at least it has been in my experience.

Personally, I don't see much difference between a guy who scores 10 points every week and a guy who alternates 20 point games and 0 point games. Sure, the first guy will help you a little bit a lot of the time... but the second guy will help you a lot a little bit of the time. Consistency's not inherently any more valuable (outside of some risk management situations when you have a dominant team). Especially from a TE position, where the guys after the top tier or two average so few points per game that the consistent guys are just consistently doing very little to help your cause. From my QB, RB1, WR1, then I might prefer some consistency. From my fringe guys, I'm all about explosive upside.

I can see that being the case in non-PPR where the less predictable TDs are what you seek. In PPR, we seek consistent involvement in the offense and tend to focus on weekly target numbers, not just redzone as I presume a non-PPR owner would.

Also, I think it's really, really hard to knock what Scheffler did last season. Remember, he broke his foot in the offseason, missed all of TCs and preseason, and only played in 13 games. He finished last year 6th in PPG (again, non-PPR), ahead of Owen Daniels, Kellen Winslow, John Carlson, Chris Cooley, Anthony Fasano, Greg Olsen, and Zach Miller. So with his "supposed best friend under center" he was TE6 despite missing all of TCs and preseason and getting injured midseason. Besides, back-to-back 10 point games in PPR is a pretty arbitrary measure of greatness, but even then... compare him to his peers. Scheffler had back to back 10 point games twice last year (not once) in 13 games (he had a 10 pointer in week 5, missed 6, 7, and 8 to injury, and had another 10 pointer in week 9). He had a stretch of 4 ten-pointers in 5 games played in the middle of the season (again, counting only games he played), and he also had stretches of 8-24-7 points and 7-12 points. Other than Gates/Witten/Gonzo, who did better in that respect? Zach Miller had back to back 10 pointers 3 times in 16 games. John Carlson had back to back 10 pointers 3 times in 16 games. Visanthe Shiancoe, last year's surprise top-5 TE, didn't have back-to-back 10 point games a SINGLE TIME last year. Owen Daniels did it twice in 16 games. Outside of the top tier, there simply ARE NOT ANY consistent TEs. None. If you hold a TE out of the top 10 unless he's consistent, then your top 10 must only be 4 players strong.

You're right - back-to-back 10 point games is completely arbitrary and a poor argument. My larger point was his level of consistent involvement. Tony finished with just 60 targets, averaging 4.6 per game played. His very high YPC caused him to finish the year with nice numbers but on a weekly basis he never inspired confidence.

I'm not saying that Tony Scheffler should be the #5 dynasty TE or anything, I'm just suggesting that Tony Scheffler is easily one of the top 24 dynasty TEs, so unless teams are only carrying one TE on their roster, Scheffler is fully deserving of a roster spot. He's got plenty of top 5 potential (as evidenced by his #6 PPG finish last year), and he's one of the best receivers at the TE position in the game today. Best of all, he's a free agent after this season, and undoubtedly whichever team solicits his services is a team that plans on relying heavily on the TE. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him wind up in Houston, for instance (Owen Daniels is in the last year of his contract and says he wants to be the highest-paid TE in the league). What do you think that might do to his fantasy value?

Of course he deserves a roster spot. And yes, he does have top-5 potential but therein lies the problem. His target numbers put him in the company of guys like Billy Miller, LJ Smith, Heath Miller, Desmond Clark, and Marcedes Lewis, but his talent puts him closer to the company of guys like Cooley, Winslow, and Gates. So instead of moving him for a higher target player, as I would the those other 5 TEs, I have to hang on to him and wait... which annoys me, feels like an albatross. That said, impending free agency is something I hadn't considered yet and does make the wait a bit more bearable.Clearly we're coming at this from different perspectives that are hard to understand. You value explosiveness in a non-PPR format, I (and probably most others) value consistent involvement in a PPR format.Lastly, that top 5 potential he has makes him similar to prospects like Finley and Cook but Tony's already had a shot to produce. So how long do we wait for his next shot? At what point does he become Ben Watson 2.0?

 

[SSOG]

Lastly, that top 5 potential he has makes him similar to prospects like Finley and Cook but Tony's already had a shot to produce. So how long do we wait for his next shot? At what point does he become Ben Watson 2.0?

He had his shot and he produced when he got it. That's the difference between him and Watson (who's had his shot and never produced). He's not producing right now because he's not in a favorable environment (and TEs, more than any other position, are dependent on their environment), but he's produced when given the opportunity in the past and as a result I believe he will continue to do so in the future.

 

[valhallan]

Lastly, that top 5 potential he has makes him similar to prospects like Finley and Cook but Tony's already had a shot to produce. So how long do we wait for his next shot? At what point does he become Ben Watson 2.0?

He had his shot and he produced when he got it. That's the difference between him and Watson (who's had his shot and never produced). He's not producing right now because he's not in a favorable environment (and TEs, more than any other position, are dependent on their environment), but he's produced when given the opportunity in the past and as a result I believe he will continue to do so in the future.

In FBG scoring Ben Watson finished 15, 10, and 13th in years 2-4 with 8 total games missed. Scheffler has finished 10 and 12th in years 2 and 3 with 4 total games missed. I'm not sure what vast difference in production you're seeing.TEs dependent on environment? Yep, that's exactly my point with being consistently involved. And again, Cutler was supposed to be his boy so the past two years could easily end up being the most confident a quarterback will ever be with Scheffler.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Cutler was supposed to be his boy so the past two years could easily end up being the most confident a quarterback will ever be with Scheffler.

This point can't be emphasized enough. The two came in together and had a ton of chemistry. [Worked with the 2nd team together right off the bat I believe]New offense. New rapport to obtain with new QB [whom odds are isn't the QB/gunslinger Cutler is] whether Tony moves on or not. Would take him over M.Lewis and H.Miller (assume you meant Heath, and not Zach, above), but don't see the Top 5 potential there.No shot I take him over Cook with dump off king Young looking to be the QB of the future in Tennessee. Very difficult for me to take him over Finley with a top flight QB in Rodgers and aging Lee.I've always been a huge believer that your 1st chance is your best chance.

 

[spon23]

Any thoughts on R Bush versus Felix Jones? I'm discussing a Bush+Gage for F Jones+2010 2nd round rookie pick trade. The 2nd round pick should be at or near the top of the round (13-15 range). Bush is signed for 2 years, while Jones is signed for 3 years.

Trading Bush would leave me thin at RB, especially with Slow Willie hurting and having just traded Mendenhall away last week (for Sanchez). I really love Felix Jones' potential, but I'm not sure I want to hurt my chances to win this year.

thoughts?

 

[gheemony]

Any thoughts on R Bush versus Felix Jones? I'm discussing a Bush+Gage for F Jones+2010 2nd round rookie pick trade. The 2nd round pick should be at or near the top of the round (13-15 range). Bush is signed for 2 years, while Jones is signed for 3 years. Trading Bush would leave me thin at RB, especially with Slow Willie hurting and having just traded Mendenhall away last week (for Sanchez). I really love Felix Jones' potential, but I'm not sure I want to hurt my chances to win this year. thoughts?

I have trouble believing that Felix will be healthier in his career than Bush. Seem like very similar players, only Bush has "proven" what he is.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Any thoughts on R Bush versus Felix Jones? I'm discussing a Bush+Gage for F Jones+2010 2nd round rookie pick trade. The 2nd round pick should be at or near the top of the round (13-15 range). Bush is signed for 2 years, while Jones is signed for 3 years. Trading Bush would leave me thin at RB, especially with Slow Willie hurting and having just traded Mendenhall away last week (for Sanchez). I really love Felix Jones' potential, but I'm not sure I want to hurt my chances to win this year. thoughts?

I have trouble believing that Felix will be healthier in his career than Bush. Seem like very similar players, only Bush has "proven" what he is.

One thing that is dissimilar is Jones' effectiveness versus Bush's ineffectiveness.The small sample size caveat obviously applies in Jones' case, but he has the highest yards per touch over the past two seasons and Bush has had one of the lowest yards per touches since he came into the league.

 

[spon23]

One thing that is dissimilar is Jones' effectiveness versus Bush's ineffectiveness.The small sample size caveat obviously applies in Jones' case, but he has the highest yards per touch over the past two seasons and Bush has had one of the lowest yards per touches since he came into the league.

I agree with this, but Bush does have pretty consistent weekly value in PPR leagues because of his receptions. He's pretty much a lock for 10-12 points per week b/c he's going to catch 5 or 6 passes and put up about 70+ total yards. I think Jones has the potential to put up much better numbers, but I'm concerned that he won't get the touches. Do you think he'll become the primary (or at least 1B) option in Dallas next year?

 

[editor47]

i notice in the WR rankings before the season started that you have mike sims-walker pretty low. you gave him a grade of 13 i think.

what are your thoughts now on him? how far up your list has he moved and how much higher of a grade would you give him?

p.s. why can't this thread be pinned?

 

[BespokeJort]

agreed this thread should be pinned...

F&L (and others), curious what you think of Massaquoi in light of today's performance. Does he have long-term promise, or is he just a one week mirage/flash in the pan?

 

[SSOG]

agreed this thread should be pinned...F&L (and others), curious what you think of Massaquoi in light of today's performance. Does he have long-term promise, or is he just a one week mirage/flash in the pan?

He was always a nifty receiver in college, but he's Charmin-soft. I'm probably biased against him, and I didn't see him play today, but my immediate gut reaction is "mirage".

 

[Fear & Loathing]

agreed this thread should be pinned...F&L (and others), curious what you think of Massaquoi in light of today's performance. Does he have long-term promise, or is he just a one week mirage/flash in the pan?

He was always a nifty receiver in college, but he's Charmin-soft. I'm probably biased against him, and I didn't see him play today, but my immediate gut reaction is "mirage".

I've never been high on him, but I covered that game today, and he was very impressive. The knock on him was that he didn't have good hands, but he reeled in a host of tough catches in tight Leon Hall coverage down the field. There's no question that he earned Anderson's trust throughout the game, and his skill-set definitely benefits from Anderson playing instead of Quinn.

 

[editor47]

hey F&L

Can you answer my question about Sims-Walker?

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Steve Smith (NY) is making a believer out of me.

Im hating myself for not trying to land him on any of my teams as i thought he was a weak possesion wr.

You guys also have him rated so low its starting to look crazy now.

I mean do you still think he is 30-40 range for dynasty???

 

[SSOG]

Steve Smith (NY) is making a believer out of me. Im hating myself for not trying to land him on any of my teams as i thought he was a weak possesion wr.You guys also have him rated so low its starting to look crazy now. I mean do you still think he is 30-40 range for dynasty???

He might be working his way up a bit, but I'm still a strong skeptic. It's not that I don't believe in Steve Smith North, it's that I don't believe in Eli Manning. Steve Smith has been putting up awesome numbers... but Eli Manning is on pace for 4156 yards and 32 TDs (against only 8 INTs). Let's just say I'm not bullish on his chances to keep up that level of production over a full season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Eli average under 200 yards a game from here on out (not only would I not be surprised, I'd bet on it). Also, my concerns about Manningham, Nicks, and Hixon still remain. I can't in good conscience bump Steve Smith North into the top 25 without being sold on his talent, and I haven't seen enough of him this year to change my mind on him already. Especially after 4 games. 4 games is a huge sample in redraft (it's about 30% of the regular season), but it's still a very small sample in dynasty.

 

[MAC_32]

Forte and Slaton owners, sell. Now.

Not going to provide an opinion on Mendenhall. Was it a flash in the pan against a run defense that (repeatedly) got punched in the mouth by a weak run blocking offensive line? or did he finally get the message? I'm just happy he's not on either of my teams so I have to make a decision.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Steve Smith (NY) is making a believer out of me. Im hating myself for not trying to land him on any of my teams as i thought he was a weak possesion wr.You guys also have him rated so low its starting to look crazy now. I mean do you still think he is 30-40 range for dynasty???

He might be working his way up a bit, but I'm still a strong skeptic. It's not that I don't believe in Steve Smith North, it's that I don't believe in Eli Manning. Steve Smith has been putting up awesome numbers... but Eli Manning is on pace for 4156 yards and 32 TDs (against only 8 INTs). Let's just say I'm not bullish on his chances to keep up that level of production over a full season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Eli average under 200 yards a game from here on out (not only would I not be surprised, I'd bet on it). Also, my concerns about Manningham, Nicks, and Hixon still remain. I can't in good conscience bump Steve Smith North into the top 25 without being sold on his talent, and I haven't seen enough of him this year to change my mind on him already. Especially after 4 games. 4 games is a huge sample in redraft (it's about 30% of the regular season), but it's still a very small sample in dynasty.

I can see your point. Thing is i think you have to move him up as i can see his TRADE VALUE to the point he could easily land guys ranked 15 spots ahead of him in dynasty. Just check out the ACF this week, im sure Smith will be moved to land some underperfoming studs this week. I have Super Mario on 2 teams but going in i like Nicks over all of them. And his TD rec shows how he could blow up and throw a monkey wrench in the Giants rotation.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Tony Romo has stayed very high in your rankings. Currently #6. Do you think he is still a Tier 2 QB? The team is very run-oriented this year, and the whole pass offense just seems out-of-sync. Should owners just hold and wait for BMarsh or someone else to end up in Dallas? Or is it time to cut bait for an equivalent but less flashy name?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

hey F&L Can you answer my question about Sims-Walker?

I haven't had the time to look at it that closely. My best guess is that he's moving into the Top 35. He's certainly ahead of Torry Holt.I'll try to update the WR rankings today, since I haven't done so in awhile.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Tony Romo has stayed very high in your rankings. Currently #6. Do you think he is still a Tier 2 QB? The team is very run-oriented this year, and the whole pass offense just seems out-of-sync. Should owners just hold and wait for BMarsh or someone else to end up in Dallas? Or is it time to cut bait for an equivalent but less flashy name?

He'll drop a couple of spots. I predicted Romo would have a drastic falloff in TDs this year, but I didn't know he'd struggle with his accuracy so much. Joe Flacco is screaming up the rankings. Cutler is making a push too?Meanwhile, how about Big Ben on pace for 4,800 passing yards? The F&L, EBF, and SSOG favorite is doing what we predicted he'd do.

 

[Max Power]

What's you take on the future of the Radiers?

Russell seems like a lost cause, but there is still some young talent on the roster...McFadden, Miller, Bush, DHB, Chaz and such.

Every year we all think that this team is going to get better, but they hardly impress.

I'm getting tired on waiting on these guys. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What's you take on the future of the Radiers?Russell seems like a lost cause, but there is still some young talent on the roster...McFadden, Miller, Bush, DHB, Chaz and such. Every year we all think that this team is going to get better, but they hardly impress. I'm getting tired on waiting on these guys. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

I don't see any light. Growing up in Cincinnati, I know what it's like to have a clueless, meddlesome owner. The result is one winning season in 18 years and no light at the end of the tunnel by mid-October of most seasons.Russell isn't turning it around, and the Raiders have no one else to turn to. I think you can scratch DHB off that list of young talent. He's a disaster.

 

[Magnus_CA]

Joe Flacco is screaming up the rankings.

F&L - I'm going to have the option of keeping either Flacco or Ryan next year. It is because of this thread that I took Ryan so early. If Flacco continues on this pace do you see him joining Ryan in Tier 1 this year?I've been watching Ryan very closely this year given my predicament. I do expect him to find more of a groove with deep passing plays but he comes off as more of a game manager than fantasy powerhouse in the making. Flacco on the other hand has seemed to be given more control of the offense and is running with it. The change in coaching staff seems to have come at the perfect time for (me and) Flacco.

 

[SSOG]

I can see your point. Thing is i think you have to move him up as i can see his TRADE VALUE to the point he could easily land guys ranked 15 spots ahead of him in dynasty.

Just check out the ACF this week, im sure Smith will be moved to land some underperfoming studs this week. I have Super Mario on 2 teams but going in i like Nicks over all of them. And his TD rec shows how he could blow up and throw a monkey wrench in the Giants rotation.

The fact that the #30 Dynasty WR could be traded straight up for the #15 Dynasty WR isn't a reason to move the #30 Dynasty WR into the top 15 WRs...it's a reason to move him FOR a top 15 WR.I really can't see the rationale behind ranking on current trade value. The whole purpose of rankings is to show what you SHOULD be paying for a player and to highlight situations where that price differs greatly from market value. If I ranked Steve Smith in the top 15, that would be saying that I would condone trading the #16 Dynasty WR for him straight up, and I don't feel that way at all.

A few pages back, some people were discussing Cadillac Williams and made an argument about ranking based, not on current trade value, but on the difference between current trade value and future trade value. That's all well and good for an end-of-the-bench kind of guy like Williams (if you roll the dice and are wrong, all you're stuck with is waiver fodder who you didn't pay anything to acquire). For a player like Smith, though... if you think that his trade value right now is commensurate with the #20 dynasty WR, but in two weeks it will be commensurate with the #10 dynasty WR and so you decide to rank him higher than 25th (where you personally believe he should be valued), then that's a mistake waiting to happen, in my mind. If the projected increase never comes, you just lost a lot of value. That's the risk of running your dynasty team like a stock market, of looking to acquire players that other people will be looking to acquire rather than looking to acquire players who you honestly believe in. If you think Smith's trade value far outstrips his actual value, then that makes him the perfect "sell now" candidate that you can use to acquire someone whose actual value far outstrips his trade value (i.e. the perfect "buy now" candidate).

He'll drop a couple of spots. I predicted Romo would have a drastic falloff in TDs this year, but I didn't know he'd struggle with his accuracy so much.

Joe Flacco is screaming up the rankings. Cutler is making a push too?

Meanwhile, how about Big Ben on pace for 4,800 passing yards? The F&L, EBF, and SSOG favorite is doing what we predicted he'd do.

In fairness, I don't think ANY of us predicted he'd do this, or that he'd be on pace to break his career high in attempts by 100. Personally, I expected him to be a lot better fantasy-wise for pretty much the opposite reason of why he's actually been better (I expected a big bump in his TD% from his career-low level last year, but so far this year it's actually gone down even further, rushing TDs notwithstanding). With that said, Ben's a great example of why at the end of the day, talent trumps all.

What's you take on the future of the Radiers?

Russell seems like a lost cause, but there is still some young talent on the roster...McFadden, Miller, Bush, DHB, Chaz and such.

Every year we all think that this team is going to get better, but they hardly impress.

I'm getting tired on waiting on these guys. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

There's no talent at the offensive line, McFadden to this point is all pedigree no production (it's possible he's talented, but it's also possible he's Reggie Bush), and Michael Bush is really only talented in a speculative sort of way- he's another guy we haven't seen do anything on the field. Schilens, too, for that matter. There's a lot of POTENTIAL on the team, but there's a huge difference between potential and talent (and generally potential is nothing but wasted potential if the offensive line sucks).The real question is why everyone thinks every year that they're going to get better. All everyone does all offseason is make fun of their coaching hires, make fun of their draft picks, and make fun of their free agent acquisitions. Why then does everyone start hailing them as a potential sleeper once preseason rolls around? I don't think there are any positive signs that the team is ready to turn it around any time soon (and I won't feel that way until Davis hires a REAL coach and/or a REAL GM rather than just a figurehead). With that said, several Raiders players are still worth rostering, because even on terrible teams, talent eventually wins out. I just wish more of those players were actually talents instead of merely potential talents, because in the meantime they're just albatrosses.

 

[munchkin]

With the Wide Receiver position amongst those that haven't been updated recently how do you all feel about the possible dynasty WW receivers who made an impression this past weekend? The names that come out of the weekend in order of the most recent rankings are Avery, Morgan, Sidney Rice and Massaquoi. It's hard to ignore situation but how would these WR's rank for long term potential? Avery is on a pathetic team will that hurt his potential development? Morgan supposedly dropped an easy long touchdown. Rice seems to finally be coming into his own with 5 catches on 5 targets with a TD; this team is loaded with talent and potential FF value if Favre stays healthy. Does Rice supplant Berrian to become the #1 WR target on this team? Where does Massaquoi land; is he a one week wonder because of his familiarity with Anderson?

What say yee oh Sages of the Dynasty world?

 

[corpcow]

Russell isn't turning it around, and the Raiders have no one else to turn to. I think you can scratch DHB off that list of young talent. He's a disaster.

RUssell has struggled mightily at times, but he does look good at times too (at least in the few games I've seen). I'm going to be watching him closely at the Giants game this week.The thing about Jamarcus is that when he looks good, he looks REALLY good... and when he looks bad, he looks REALLY bad. He makes some PINPOINT throws, and then throws some terribly inaccurate stuff. But, in the games I saw towards the end of the year last year, he looked like he was starting to be a little more consistent. Personally, I want to see what he does with Chaz back this week - to see if that helps him settle down a little. Again, I think he can be a decent add in dynasty leagues where he's been dropped.... he's ranked low but has (IMO) far more upside than guys who are in that same tier.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Russell isn't turning it around, and the Raiders have no one else to turn to. I think you can scratch DHB off that list of young talent. He's a disaster.

RUssell has struggled mightily at times, but he does look good at times too (at least in the few games I've seen). I'm going to be watching him closely at the Giants game this week.The thing about Jamarcus is that when he looks good, he looks REALLY good... and when he looks bad, he looks REALLY bad. He makes some PINPOINT throws, and then throws some terribly inaccurate stuff. But, in the games I saw towards the end of the year last year, he looked like he was starting to be a little more consistent. Personally, I want to see what he does with Chaz back this week - to see if that helps him settle down a little. Again, I think he can be a decent add in dynasty leagues where he's been dropped.... he's ranked low but has (IMO) far more upside than guys who are in that same tier.

When Russell looks good, it's almost always a fastball down the middle. Anytime he has to put a little touch on a ball (to lay it over a LB, or arc it on a long ball) his accuracy goes out the window. He has too much confidence in his own arm and hasn't learned to fix his mechanics and I'm not so sure that he ever will if he hasn't made ANY improvement since he was drafted. Schilenz had better be freakin Spider Man if he's going to have any relevance. In deep roster dynasty leagues I have Schilenz rostered several times but with very little expectations.

 

[corpcow]

Russell isn't turning it around, and the Raiders have no one else to turn to. I think you can scratch DHB off that list of young talent. He's a disaster.

RUssell has struggled mightily at times, but he does look good at times too (at least in the few games I've seen). I'm going to be watching him closely at the Giants game this week.The thing about Jamarcus is that when he looks good, he looks REALLY good... and when he looks bad, he looks REALLY bad. He makes some PINPOINT throws, and then throws some terribly inaccurate stuff. But, in the games I saw towards the end of the year last year, he looked like he was starting to be a little more consistent. Personally, I want to see what he does with Chaz back this week - to see if that helps him settle down a little. Again, I think he can be a decent add in dynasty leagues where he's been dropped.... he's ranked low but has (IMO) far more upside than guys who are in that same tier.

When Russell looks good, it's almost always a fastball down the middle. Anytime he has to put a little touch on a ball (to lay it over a LB, or arc it on a long ball) his accuracy goes out the window. He has too much confidence in his own arm and hasn't learned to fix his mechanics and I'm not so sure that he ever will if he hasn't made ANY improvement since he was drafted. Schilenz had better be freakin Spider Man if he's going to have any relevance. In deep roster dynasty leagues I have Schilenz rostered several times but with very little expectations.

Fair points. I managed to catch a few preseason games and I will say Schilens looked a little like SpiderMan He is a tall receiver and really elevated for the ball... which could help with JaMarcus' inaccuracy. The reason I'm not ready to completely give up on JaMarcus is jsut that no one else at his price has (IMO) the upside he has. Sure, he could be out of the league soon... but if it does click he could be a top 5 kind of guy... and he can be had for nothing.It will be interesting to see how things shake out with Cable and if they end up bringing in someone to replace him this year... sometimes that regime change can spark life, and there is definitely some talent on this roster if they can get their heads out of their collective asses.

 

[burgundy and gold]

Bennett, Hixon, Stuckey, Jacoby Jones, Shilens, Louis Murphy.

Out of the five, who is the most expendable. Just got MSW in a trade so I'm cutting back on WR.

IMO: Bennett, is a potential sold #3

Hixon, who knows? what's his contract look like?

Stuckey, plugginable as a #4 sometimes. improves along with Sanchez

Jones, does he overtake Walter any time soon?

Shilens, should I just get out of the Oakland business?

Murphy, see Shilens.

I'm thinking drop Jones .

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Russell isn't turning it around, and the Raiders have no one else to turn to.

I think you can scratch DHB off that list of young talent. He's a disaster.

RUssell has struggled mightily at times, but he does look good at times too (at least in the few games I've seen). I'm going to be watching him closely at the Giants game this week.The thing about Jamarcus is that when he looks good, he looks REALLY good... and when he looks bad, he looks REALLY bad. He makes some PINPOINT throws, and then throws some terribly inaccurate stuff. But, in the games I saw towards the end of the year last year, he looked like he was starting to be a little more consistent.

Personally, I want to see what he does with Chaz back this week - to see if that helps him settle down a little. Again, I think he can be a decent add in dynasty leagues where he's been dropped.... he's ranked low but has (IMO) far more upside than guys who are in that same tier.

Have you seen the latest on Russell's bevy of fines for showing up late, missing meetings, and being overweight?From PFT:

Russell situation is worse than described

Posted by Mike Florio on October 6, 2009 12:51 PM ET

Boomer Esiason of CBS recently lifted the lid on the problems with Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell. Esiason said on Sunday's The NFL Today that Russell has been "fined heavily" for showing up late for multiple meetings, being overweight, and missing one meeting.

A league source tells us that it's even worse.

Per the source, Russell has missed multiple meetings, and that he has missed multiple other activities. His behavior has been described to us as a "pattern not an aberration."

It's a horrible development regarding Russell's, well, development. And it's surely not what coach Tom Cable had in mind when he said this in March: "If he can accept the responsibility of being an NFL quarterback, I think that's working more, working harder, working longer than everybody else, accepting the responsibility that his teammates look to him as the face of the organization, that he has to go above and beyond almost on a daily basis, I think that comes with that position, whether that's right or wrong, that's what it is. . . . If he can accept that and become that, he'll be fine. . . . I think thus far in the offseason he's been around more than ever. He was never around like this on his own, just watching tape, studying, so that's a step in the right direction. I think he has to embrace that, though, for him to be what he should be."

Clearly, Russell hasn't embraced the realities of his job. And so the question will be whether the Raiders are going to stay the course with Russell, or whether they're going to fix this mess before it gets even worse.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Bennett, Hixon, Stuckey, Jacoby Jones, Shilens, Louis Murphy.Out of the five, who is the most expendable. Just got MSW in a trade so I'm cutting back on WR. IMO: Bennett, is a potential sold #3 Hixon, who knows? what's his contract look like? Stuckey, plugginable as a #4 sometimes. improves along with Sanchez Jones, does he overtake Walter any time soon? Shilens, should I just get out of the Oakland business? Murphy, see Shilens.I'm thinking drop Jones .

Stuckey pretty easily for me. He isn't worth anything now, and he isn't likely to be worth anything in the future.