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S-Jax is awesome. It's a reminder of why stud talents have to be ranked high even when the situation around them is grim. S-Jax's floor is just too high even in a poor offense.Also, does anyone care to revisit Chris Johnson vs. Steve Slaton?
Yup; Fitz, Andre, and Calvin, in that order. Coming into the season, Moss was my #4, but that was based on the assumption that he'd be so much better than the field this year that any difference 3 years from now wouldn't be worth considering. By the second game of the season I had enough concerns about Tom Brady to realize that wasn't going to happen, and since then I've basically just left the #4 dynasty spot vacant. Moss is too old to rank that high if he isn't going to dominate the field this year. Wayne and Roddy are both great WRs (in Roddy's case, unbelievably underrated), but neither are really spectacular talents. Ditto that for Colston. My thoughts on Jennings have been made clear. I love Smiff's talent, but it's impossible to ignore what's happened so far this season. Ochocinco is awesome, but he's only a year younger than Moss, and I can't rank a guy in the top 5 if I doubt whether he'll have another top 5 finish in his career. There's just been a massive, massive void below my top 3 ever since week 2, and now that I'm finally coming around to Vincent Jackson, I'm becoming convinced that he's the guy to fill it. Like I said, there's no hole in his game. There's nothing he can't do, and do well. In terms of strict physical ability, he's one of the top 5 talents in the league, and now he's just putting the mental part together, too. Actually, he's been doing it for over a year now, but sometimes I'm a little slow to come around.Fear & Loathing said:SSOG said:I
V-Jax.
No. 4 behind Fitz and both Johnsons?
Touchdown Syndrome said:Shhhhh....he's my #1 sleeper for this year!SSOG said:Speaking of guys who I'd love to own in dynasty, how about that MJD? Jacksonville's first three drives- zero carries for MJD (although they did give one to Mike Thomas
MJD finished the game with 29.3 fantasy points... on 9 touches. As an RB. Unbelievable (both that he scored that much, and that he only got 9 touches while Garrard attempted 27 passes). I would love to see what his numbers would look like if you put him in Minnesota instead of Jacksonville.
I would expect Reggie Wayne to score more points this year, next year, and the year after.
Wayne's only topped double-digit TDs twice (12 and 10). He's only topped 1200 yards three times (1210, 1310, 1510). Wayne's 12 TD season came in Manning's 800-TD year. He's got an incredibly high floor, and he might manage to top VJax this year, but no way does he top VJax in each of the next 3 seasons. In fact, I'd bet on VJax to top him in 2 of the next 3 seasons. After that, the fact that Jackson is 4 years younger, has radically more potential, and is more talented as of today gives him the edge for me.
Anything's possible, but I don't see it happening.
My initial reaction is that there was only a 50/50 shot of him resigning in Houston to begin with, and this drops that by a lot. If he's not in Houston, his value takes a big hit, because Houston is one of the most TE-friendly offenses in the league.
I'm as high on VJack as anyone around, you can ask my league-mates in the leagues I commish.Before this season started, my WRs for dynasty were ranked: Fitz, AJ, CJ, Wayne, Jennings, VJack.
VJax has done it 0 times. Previous high is 7. He is on pace this year (5 through 7 games should be 11). Of course Wayne has more this year so is on pace to have another one this year. Of course he had a 9 td year in there too.
Vincent Jackson never has. He is on pace this year. Of course Wayne has more yards this year so is on pace to have another one this year.You don't mention PPR which still stands as a negative for Jackson. He had 8 receptions today but previous high for the year was 6 and that was only once. Wayne is averaging almost 2 more receptions per game.
And I would bet Manning has at least 600 TDs each year for the next 3 years with Wayne being the clear #1 option each of those years. Unless Addai starts vulturing them. [edit]Of course, it looks like Wayne is Addai's #1 option too.[/edit]
Paging all the Slaton supporters!!!!! HELLO!!!Sad thing is each and every one of you know that if Slaton was in he would NEVER have gotten 150 yards and 3 TD's.So, a guy who couldn't keep Chris Freakin Brown off the field lost his job to Moats?!?!??? Wow. Huge bust.I do wish someone could come in and try to argue otherwise. It would be amusing to me.Fear & Loathing said:Snacks?
I drafted Slaton in my first-ever dynasty draft. My team's pretty much done.Paging all the Slaton supporters!!!!! HELLO!!!Sad thing is each and every one of you know that if Slaton was in he would NEVER have gotten 150 yards and 3 TD's.So, a guy who couldn't keep Chris Freakin Brown off the field lost his job to Moats?!?!??? Wow. Huge bust.I do wish someone could come in and try to argue otherwise. It would be amusing to me.Fear & Loathing said:Snacks?
Who takes over for Owen the rest of the year in HOU?Since it's such a TE-friendly team would you pick up his replacement?Dressen or Casey?
Dressen is a nice check down te...he dont run any deep routes. Casey is very very smooth and preseason he looked so good catching the ball. Has soft hands and will get OD routes imo... Time will tell if he is any good at finding the soft spots like OD or will he build the rapport with Schaub like OD had but catching the ball....Casey is on par if not better than OD catching the ball. Texans didnt give OD deal and now we will see if they were smart.
Did you see the way MJD chased down the Titan's player after Garrard's interception. He is fast fast fast.Touchdown Syndrome said:Shhhhh....he's my #1 sleeper for this year!SSOG said:Speaking of guys who I'd love to own in dynasty, how about that MJD? Jacksonville's first three drives- zero carries for MJD (although they did give one to Mike ThomasMJD finished the game with 29.3 fantasy points... on 9 touches. As an RB. Unbelievable (both that he scored that much, and that he only got 9 touches while Garrard attempted 27 passes). I would love to see what his numbers would look like if you put him in Minnesota instead of Jacksonville.
I know that Wayne has more 1200 yard and 10 TD seasons than VJax... but VJax is 26. He's just now hitting his prime. We don't really know what he'll top out at. Wayne, on the other hand, is 30 (31 in two weeks). He's still well within his prime, but at this point, he's a known commodity. He's not going to suddenly get better than he's been the past 4-6 years. There's no chance of him jumping up into the Fitz/AJ/CJ tier. He's not going to become a 1300/12 a year guy. The flip side is that his floor is so obscenely high that it doesn't really matter if his ceiling isn't off the charts... but after what I've seen of VJax, I'm convinced his floor is just as high.Dynasty is all about identifying tomorrows trends before everyone else. I'm convinced that in a year, you won't be able to buy Vincent Jackson at any price. I think a year from now, he'll be a no-brainer pick ahead of Wayne. And if he's producing as well as Wayne this year, and he's going to be ahead of Wayne as early as next year, why shouldn't I put him there now? As Jeremy Foley is fond of saying... everything that must be done eventually must be done immediately.I totally get the PPR argument, and I wouldn't put VJax #4 in a PPR league... but I don't play in any PPR leagues, and in non-PPR, I think the torch is being passed.Another big point to make is that I don't think even the most ardent Reggie Wayne supporter would argue that he's one of the 5 most talented WRs in the NFL. More than any other WR in the top 20, his value is primarily a result of his situation. That has to count as a negative, because, as stable as Indy has been, situation is more likely to change than talent. Also, the only thing that can stop VJax is an injury to VJax, whereas Wayne owners have to worry about an injury to Wayne... AND an injury to Manning. It just increases the chances of something going wrong.It's not like Wayne's a bum- I have him 5th- I just think VJax is a rising star and will soon be a household name.
In high school in California, Maurice Jones-Drew (at the time, just Maurice Drew) and Reggie Bush competed in all the same events in track and they were huge rivals. If I recall correctly, Drew was actually just a touch faster than Bush. Then they went to college, and Bush had the entire USC Media Monster behind him, while Drew labored in relative obscurity at UCLA. He's essentially everything that Reggie Bush was supposed to be. Granted, he's not the ankle-breaker that Bush is, but when Bush goes to bed he dreams that he had MJD's power.
Except he is on pace for 1575 and 14. And Indy has 4 WRs it likes so isn't likely to draft one early.
Arguments this is VJax's ceiling are - 1) the opposite WR is putrid, 2) the run game isn't much better, and 3) he is never going to turn into a PPR guy so how many 5/140 games can he have per year.
Not defending Del Rio either way. But Tenn has the worst passing offense in the league. So I can see why they came out throwing.SSOG said:Speaking of guys who I'd love to own in dynasty, how about that MJD? Jacksonville's first three drives- zero carries for MJD (although they did give one to Mike Thomas), zero catches for MJD, three 3-and-outs. Jacksonville's fourth drive, they give the ball to MJD on the first play and he takes it 80 yards to the house. You kind of get the sense that it was his way of saying "give me the @$&%##$@ ball, stupid" to Jack Del-Rio. And stupid listened, calling two runs for MJD to open the next series.Edit: 1st drive of the second half opens with a run by MJD... and he takes it 79 yards for the score. I have a feeling even Jack Del Rio might be getting the point by now. I think it'll be a long, long time before the Jaguars go 3 series without giving the ball to MJD again. MJD is currently averaging 34.4 yards per carry.
I'm convinced that Wayne's pace is more likely to fall off than VJax's, based on the long history we have on Wayne and the fact that Manning hasn't had any other proven options except for Wayne and Clark through the first six weeks. And even if Wayne manages to keep it up, next year and the year after we're back to 1200/10 business as usual. And the problem with having 4 WRs you like is that once those WRs aren't rookies, sophomores, or injured, you're going to start getting them the ball- and those touches will come from Wayne. And, like I said, I don't think there's a single person on this entire board who would call Wayne one of the five most talented WRs in the NFL. And VJax is 4 years younger.As for VJax... the opposite WR isn't putrid; the opposite WR is a stud (Floyd and Naanee are both pretty decent, but that's not the point- in San Diego, the "opposite WR" is Antonio Gates). And the run game isn't much better, but it doesn't really matter, because the team is going to be a pass-first team going forward (which is a simple matter of playing to your strengths- if your three best players are Rivers, VJax, and Gates, and your Oline struggles with run-blocking, it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out what they're going to do). As for how many 5/140 games VJax can have per year... enough. He's topped 100 in 4 out of 7 games so far this year, while Wayne only has in 3 out of 7.Vincent Jackson has the potential to become a Calvin Johnson, a guy who is virtually untouchable in dynasty. No, he's not there yet, but if you wait until he is there, then you'll never get him (you know, because he's virtually untouchable and all). Wayne is an incredibly valuable asset, but there's no chance he ever makes that jump, and he's only a year or two away from the point where you're going to start having to worry about his age and his window closing. I've mentioned before that I rank players based on a combination of projections and exit value, and Wayne's going to see his exit value start dropping quickly. Two years from now, his value will have taken a serious hit. If VJax can produce even 90% of what Reggie Wayne can produce over the next 2-3 years, then the age difference alone makes him more valuable, forgetting about any considerations of talent or upside entirely.
I know why he did it, but I can't see it. I don't care if the other team is starting their 3rd string QB and their Strength/Conditioning coach at the two CB positions... you don't give the ball to David Garrard at the expense of Maurice Jones-Drew.
Collie's been just fine as a parallel to Floyd/Nanee the past 4 weeks, and Wayne's still producing.
Meh. Their ypg average is like 4 yards apart. If we're going to say that # of 100 yard games is an indicator of # of 100 yard games to come, that just means Wayne's per game floor is higher. Potato, potato.
And SSOG's postings are good too. It's a close call between these two. What's your risk tolerance? I look at 3-year windows because (1) hard to predict with any certainty beyond that and (2) my main league is a contract league with 3-4 year max contracts. At this point, I think Jackson is cheaper to buy than Wayne. If I owned Wayne, I try to trade him for Jackson and something else. Over three years, I think they're pretty close.
I beg to differ.And I also agree with SSOG that V-Jax's ceiling is higher. I'm swinging for the fences, so I wouldn't trade V-Jax for Wayne if the trade was offered.Also, re: the earlier point that V-Jax will never be a great PPR player, I don't buy that at all. I don't see any reason why his reception totals won't keep increasing as he continues to get better and better while earning every bit of Philip Rivers' trust.Great point about the risk of the Chargers. They could also somehow repair the defense and not implode but also not throw the ball a lot. Then what happens to Jackson's stats?
Bah. So do I. Stupid no-proofreading. Fixed. Kinda makes a difference though, doesn't it.
I can buy this, if the bold is added, but doesn't really matter. Here's a question though... skipping away from Wayne... why's Vincent so obviously better than Colston or White? Both have a better track record in the past several years, both are close enough in age to call it a wash, and Colston's situation is at least as good as Vincent's while White has done pretty amazing things with a sub-par QB situation ( Ryan's great, but he was still a rook ).
yeah i am not buyin it either ... by that rationale Vjack would be incapable of putting up similar numbers to Wayne if he played with manning ... who in their right mind would believe that?I can buy the Johnsons over him (although Calvin is clearly only on upside and the hope that someone figures out what they are doing in Detroit) and probably fitz (who is the same age) but that is really about it in a dynasty setting
He's more physically dominant than both of those players, and Colston's injury history gives me slight pause.
i personally feel he plays as physical as colston but has more big play ability then White and Colst
Collie might have been fine, but that's not the question. The question is what kind of impact the return of Gonzalez will have on Wayne's numbers, and my money's on "negative". If Vincent Jackson had a major part of the SD passing game who had missed the entire season so far and who was returning within the next two weeks, I think it'd be fair to question what kind of impact that would have on his numbers, too.Also, I brought up the 4/7 100 yard game stat not because I was implying that Wayne was inconsistent, but because I felt like you were questioning VJax's consistency (asking how many 4/140 games he could have) and I wanted to remind you how consistent he has been so far this season.
That "different player" had 1145/6 receiving last year and finished as a fantasy WR2.
VJax has everything he needs to become a really, really special player, too. He's a physical freak, he's performing like a grade A stud, and more than any WR in the NFL not named Moss, it's as if he was built in a lab for the sole purpose of catching TDs- something that 66% of those really, really special players ahead of him have struggled to do with any consistency so far in their careers.
If the Chargers fall apart, that just means more passes to VJax. He's got a QB with the tools and the willingness to get him the ball, so if the rest of the team falls apart, so much the better. It'll be just like Calvin last year, Andre two years ago, or Fitzgerald for most of the decade.
I mentioned both White and Colston, and I believe I called Roddy the most underrated WR in the league (if I didn't today, I'm sure I've said it multiple times in this thread). With that said, those two are a lot like Reggie Wayne. Colston isn't quite as talented as the other guys around him, he just happens to be in a phenomenal scenario. White is more talented than Colston/Wayne, but not as talented as VJax and the Power Trio, and I have a hard time envisioning him making that jump from consistent low-end WR1 to consistent high-end WR1. I really agree that if someone's going to be ranked above VJax, it has to be Wayne. I can't see anyone else there.As for who else can fit in that tier... I'd also have no problem putting Randy Moss at the end of that tier for a team contending right now, and I'd sneak Smiff and Desean in at the end, too. Not necessarily in that order.I love this discussion so far. Lots of really good points being raised. Ultimately, though, it's just solidifying my opinion.
I can't address the 3-4 year max contracts thing, but now might be a good time to revisit my system for ranking players.I use a system I like to call an "exit value" system. I create a window where I feel comfortable projecting, and I project in it. After that, to account for the fact that the player isn't going to spontaneously combust at the end of that window, I try to estimate what his trade value, or "exit value", will be at the end of the window.For instance, let's say I'm comparing Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss. Let's say that I think both players will put up 4500 yards and 36 scores over the next three seasons. That's all well and good... but am I going to value both players equally? Of course not. Three years from now, Larry Fitzgerald will be a 29 year old multiple all-pro coming off of a 3-year stretch where he averaged 1500/12. Randy Moss, on the other hand, will be 35 and already past the historical expiration date of superstar WRs. If I wanted to, I could trade Larry Fitzgerald for a top 5 RB three years from now, while I'd be lucky to get a low-end RB2 for Randy Moss. Larry Fitzgerald's "exit value" three years from now should be the same as his value right now.Now, let's compare Wayne and VJax using a 2-year window. So far this year, both WRs are on pace for 1500 yards. Let's say VJax tapers off and only gets 1400. Let's also be generous and give Wayne 14 TDs to VJax's 12. Next year, I'd anticipate Wayne to return to his 1200/10 ways, while let's say I'm predicting 1300/12 from VJax, since he's still on the upslope of his career. That's exactly the same amount of FPs scored for both players over the next two years... so let's look at exit value. Vincent Jackson will be 28 and coming off of back-to-back 1300/12 seasons. Reggie Wayne will be 32 and two years away from Peyton Manning's stated retirement date (after 8 years in the league, Peyton said he was only going to play for 8 more). Just look at where Randy Moss (currently 32 years old) is ranked right now to get an idea of what might happen to Reggie Wayne in a couple of years- and remember, Wayne was no Randy Moss. Even if both players score comparable points in the next two years, or even if Wayne winds up outscoring VJax by a bit, the difference in exit value skews the comparison in VJax's favor.Not saying that it's the best system ever, but it does give a much better indication of the relative value of young players compared to old players. With QBs and WRs, good players can play a high level for 10+ years, so it seems silly to only pretend that they'll be around for 3. With RBs, exit value and age are inextricably linked, and sometimes it's important to get whatever you can before the value falls off the cliff entirely- a simple 3 year projection doesn't include a variable for "3 years from now people won't even trade a 3rd rounder for this guy".
I think he can be a great PPR player, I just don't think he can ascend to the Fitz/Andre tier (I think those two are in a tier of their own above Calvin in PPR). I have a hard time seeing VJax becoming a reliable 90+ catch guy. Not necessarily because he can't do it, but more because that's not really how San Diego uses him (they don't need to, not with Gates around).
The Exit Value Theory should be mandatory reading for up-and-coming dynasty sharks.
Well he's already 4th in PPR even with a bye week:1. Wayne 155.902. S.Smith 143.20 (no bye yet)3. A.Johnson 139.70 (no bye yet)4. V.Jackson 133.405. Fitz 127.90In per game average he's behind only Welker (5 games) and Wayne. I'm inclined to agree with F&L here. Jackson has been amazingly consistent in his progression year-to-year and after jumping into the top 20 last year, he's knocking on the door to the top 5 this year. As you've already argued, SSOG, he can make every catch on the field, so he's becoming a guy where situation is irrelevant. Heck, it seems like 9 out of 10 deep balls he catches are severely underthrown by Rivers. There really doesn't appear to be any reason to think he's hit his peak (Rivers could hit him in stride for once) and he's essentially already top 3 in PPR this year.
Link please.
It's the post that I quoted, just above mine, by SSOG.
Officially #4. At least for the next few days. A lot of his slide from the bottom of tier 1 all the way down to the top of tier 2 is due to his and Brady's health. He is a couple 59-0 games away from rising again. He still has the most upside (production, not value) of any WR over the next 2-3 years. And yes I will keep telling myself that.Really I don't think his value has dropped that much. He is probably not untradeable, but he still would demand quality youth in return. Ocho will turn 32 in January. If he finishes the year like he started, he'd also would demand a RB#1 in dynasty PPR next summer. There is a cliff coming for Wayne and all these guys, but 3 or 4 years is a long time to "develop new talent."
I think the important thing that SSOG was getting at is that WRs and QBs fall off at a slower rate over a longer period of time. A RB's fall from elite (e.g., top 3 overall pick) to barely worth a roster spot can be fast. See, e.g., Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, now we're starting to see it with LT. There's a reason I sold Portis in every league I had him in last year - because when the end comes for a RB, it often comes on quite suddenly.By contrast, QBs and WRs typically have a longer shelf life to start with, and their dropoff is more gradual.
That was his "I know it's not a perfect strategy" argument. It's an easier argument to make for RBs. Everyone tries to do this with RBs. It's almost to the point where if a RB has one good season you have to trade him for picks. But SSOG also used the argument as to why VJax should/could be above Wayne. I don't think Wayne at 32.x is worth any less than he is today if he is producing the same he is today. The production between the ages of 32 and 35 of similar WRs like Rice, Harrison, Cris Carter, Ward, Driver, Mason gives me no fear in exiting that window.
Good points here. I docked Portis pretty severely this offseason because it was clear that he had lost his legs. My rough guidelines are as follows:RB: Age 28-30, depending on career and recent workload. Portis was on the 28 side, Westbrook closer to 30. I've had Westbrook for the past three seasons in one league and tried a different strategy with him. I didn't want to lose his potential difference-making talent at age 29, so I traded for Chris Johnson prior to last season to act as my RB3 and insurance policy. I still have Westbrook and probably won't deal him because I can't get what he's worth. WR: Age 34-35. I'm starting to make this one more rigid. A guy like Marvin or T.O. can have a great age-35 season, but the chances of repeating at ages 36 and 37 are just too slim.QB: Depends almost entirely on the player and his career history. TE: Right smack in the middle of RB and WR. Tony Gonzalez is the exception.corpcow said:
I like that part. Finding a way to replace elite or even just good aging players from whitin.
Sometimes you can't move a stud who is heading for a decline. If you can draft well and have depth, you can sometimes ride your old stud until the wheels fall off and collect a championship or two along the way. It beats giving older players away for nothing. I will add that I don't like doing this, but it happens.
Sure... if you have the talent to do that... and a lot of that comes down to how well you draft & play the wire.F&L, just out of curiosity, what did you pay to get CJ?
It's everybody's thread, so your opinion is welcome. For the record, Reggie Wayne (No. 14) wasn't even Top-10 last year, much less Top-5.
I believe it was August 1st of last year, about three days before all of the big hype on Johnson started with Titans camp just beginning. The guy who drafted him was getting back into the league after a year off and was rebuilding another roster. He had stockpiled four first-round picks and also grabbed Matt Forte, Ray Rice, and Felix Jones (with Ronnie Brown and Reggie Bush already on his roster). He knew I liked Johnson and was holding out for a 1st, 2nd and Pierre Thomas. I turned him down in mid-July knowing he likes to stockpile future picks and would likely come back to me because he didn't like Johnson as much as the other three backs. He came back a couple of weeks later with an offer of a 1st and Pierre Thomas for Johnson. I hit the "accept" button within seconds.
V-Jax. No. 4 behind Fitz and both Johnsons?
