I understand this argument. But, I think that if you feel that Ricky puts you over the top and wins you the league you do the deal. It may be a long term deal that isn't in your favor, but FFB changes so much from year to year that a win this year would make up for it to me.This is of course only if you think that Ricky GIVES you a championship this year. F&L is endorsing Ricky as that kind of a RB1 difference maker this year. (or thats how I read it) So, if I was close to a championship, I'd trade Greene and his future for my win now. But, that is just me. (I'd do it quick too)
Many an owner has used this reasoning when reaching for a clearly-declining Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, or LaDainian Tomlinson in the early rounds of a dynasty startup when young nucleus players are still available. "Yeah I know he's 400 years old and he's probably only going to play for 3 more weeks before his skeleton turns to dust, but...I could win the title this year!" It could work out. Just saying...I've been playing dynasty for about 6-7 years now and I've seen many deals of this variety take place (even made a few myself). What usually happens is the big acquisition doesn't make the impact his owner anticipated and the owner eventually regrets sacrificing long term value for a stop-gap solution. You can call it a "win now" move. I like my new term "lose later." I think the overall value equation favors the prospect side of the deal by a wide margin. Trust me, you don't want to be the guy who gives up Frank Gore or Ray Rice for a 32 year old RB. Is there a best-case scenario that favors the Ricky side of the deal? Sure. Ricky could win you the title this year and Greene could flop miserably ala Musa Smith. Not far-fetched.
EBF, the main problem I see here is that 1)Faulk/Holes/Barber/LT a year or two before their demise cost either a 1st or 2nd round pick in a start up league. In this instant, they are meant to be your nucleus. If you are trading Greene for RW, you are trading a spare part with potential. You only do this if you are on the cusp and really need something to put you over. No one is advocating trading a Chris Johnson for LT at the beginning of this year because you think LT will give you a good shot at the title this year. We are saying trade away a mid-late 1st round pick if you need a push at RB.2) You talk about giving up Frank Gore or Ray Rice for RW but that is using the one or two instances where this trade could backfire where and there is a much better chance that a mid-late 1st round pick busts than becomes a top 5 RB. I really think last years amazing crop of Rookie RBs is really making some biased opinions. I went back the past few years in my Dynasty league and these were all the 1.4-1.10 draft picks Brandon Jackson, JaMarcus Russell, Anthony Gonzalez, Robert Meachem, Michael Bush, Kenny Irons, Tedi Ginn|||LenDale White, Laurence Maroney, Matt Leinert, Vince Young, Vernon Davis, Jerious Norwood, Chad Jackson|||Cedric Benson, Eric Shelton, Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, Troy Williamson, Mark Clayton, Ryan Moats.||| Fitzgerald, Julius Jones, Reggie Williams, Kellen Winslow, Eli Manning, Tatum Bell, Michael Clayton||| Justin Fargas, Carson Palmer, Willis McGahee, Byron Leftwich, Andre Johnson, Larry Johnson, Labrandon Toefield.The only people I would not trade for RW right now (not even accounting for the fact that some of these rookies you had to wait 1-2 years on before they showed up) would be Vernon Davis, Cedric Benson, Braylon Edwards, Fitzgerald, Kellen Winslow, Eli Manning, Palmer, Andre Johnson, (Larry johnson recently lost value but had a really good few year span). 9/40 picks wound up being nearly worthless. Notice that there is only 1-2 RB in 14 total picked that I would not trade a championship for. Benson you would have dropped when he was out of the league and Johnson is worthless now.WRs have a MUCH better hit rate than RBs at that point in the draft.