Terry Allen?
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Dynasty Rankings (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
squistion
Footballguy
Terry Allen had both knees rebuilt and played for many years after that. I remember he broke his ankle, but that was late in his career, don't recall an achilles problem with him.
massraider
Footballguy
If it's not Jacobs or Bradshaw, I think this is your most likely bet.
shader
Footballguy
I think this is an example of people "wishing" a future star into existence. Right now the Giants have 2 good RB's, Jacobs and Bradshaw. Hoping that one of the scrubs behind them is going to turn into a really good RB is just a pipedream.
When one or both of the two current RB's gets injured or moves on, the Giants will more than likely draft another RB and he will be the guy to own.
When one or both of the two current RB's gets injured or moves on, the Giants will more than likely draft another RB and he will be the guy to own.
PranksterJD
Footballguy
Agreed on long term, but there are 16 possible RB starts that will happen before the Giants can draft another guy. Certainly there's little hope in thinking that DJ Ware or Andre Brown can be the next Priest Holmes, but its not ridiculous to try and figure out which of Danny Ware or Andre Brown would be the next Justin Forsett.shader said:
The only way I would trade 1.02 + 2 future firsts + Slaton for Stewart is if I knew with absolute certainty that the two firsts would be 1.11 and 1.12. In that case, you'd be trading a very valuable asset (the 1.02) plus two middling value assets (the firsts) plus a low-value asset (Slaton) for a stud. If those future firsts wind up becoming, say, the 1.06 and the 1.08, then I think you overspent. If one of those future firsts winds up becoming top-4, then you definitely overspent. If one of those firsts becomes the #1 overall, then you got seriously fleeced. So, no, I wouldn't do that particular trade.I would trade the 1.02 + Slaton for Stewart in a heartbeat. I would trade the 1.02 + a future first for Stewart as long as I was very confident that the future first wouldn't be an early first. I'd even trade the 1.02+Slaton+future first for Stewart if I thought the future first was going to be late enough. The question isn't just whether I'd make that trade, though... it's whether I'd consider that a good use of resources. Could I use those trading chips in a different deal that would return more net value? You absolutely can not get tunnel vision for a specific player- you can have players that you'd like to acquire, but if the price is going up on one player, then try to buy a different player, instead. Instead of spending a king's ransom on Stewart, why not see if you could acquire Gore for the 1.02 and Slaton and Miles Austin for the two future firsts, or something of that nature? Why not get a cheaper stud now, save the future firsts, and then trade them next draft season when their value is at its peak? It's not just about upgrading your team, it's about using resources efficiently to get the maximum possible upgrade for your team.
HenryMuto
Footballguy
Nice write up. I find it interesting in the 2 players you selected in trying for. Gore I drafted when he was rookie and then I sent him packing with D-Williams and 3 future 1st round picks (all ended up being 1.07 or lower we only have 10 people in our league) for LT and Gates.I had Miles Austin on my roster during 2008 then decided to finally give up on him and released him about 2/3's of the way through 2008.
Ouch on the Austin thing and Gore/D-Williams certainly hurt now giving them up but LT and Gates have been great for me until well now since LT is no longer the feature back.
I agree I should not make this deal. I like that 1.02 very much and I just actually got that pick in a deal for Boldin.
What is funny is I traded Boldin and got back the 1.02 and a 2011 future 2nd round
I also traded for that other future 1st round in 2011 when I gave up Palmer.
So I would have done Boldin, Palmer Slaton and my 1st rounder in 2011 (I think I will be 1.07 or lower)
I would have made that deal but since I turned Boldin into the 1.02 and Palmer in the projected possible high 2011 pick now I won't make the deal.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
OnThInIcE911
Footballguy
Trying not to rub the salt in the fresh V-Jax wound and also aware that I am looking at these events through hater colored glasses..
Elite players tend to get payed like elite players. Does anyone else see A.J. Smith and the Chargers decision not to pay V-jax like an elite WR as a sign that he is not elite? I don't really see a contender not paying a player his worth unless they feel they can adequately replace him or he is not worth his asking price. I think it might be a little of both.
Obviously there are other factors here like the CBA but a stud WR in the midst of his prime would probably get his money, if he was worth it.
Long story short: Does V-Jax not getting paid point to him being overrated by the fantasy community?
Elite players tend to get payed like elite players. Does anyone else see A.J. Smith and the Chargers decision not to pay V-jax like an elite WR as a sign that he is not elite? I don't really see a contender not paying a player his worth unless they feel they can adequately replace him or he is not worth his asking price. I think it might be a little of both.
Obviously there are other factors here like the CBA but a stud WR in the midst of his prime would probably get his money, if he was worth it.
Long story short: Does V-Jax not getting paid point to him being overrated by the fantasy community?
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
No.Are Chris Johnson and Darrelle Revis also not elite? We're simply dealing with an aberrant offseason of contract squawking because of the uncertainty with the CBA.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Article on Fitz's camp, but not much new information here. Calais Campbell was talking about the end of OTAs when he added that he wasn’t talking about the end of work. In fact, Campbell was going to spend some of his down time in Minnesota, where teammate Larry Fitzgerald spends his post-OTA offseason and where Fitz has a burgeoning workout group of NFL players.
The workouts started, Fitz said, with fellow NFLers he came into the league with – wide receivers Greg Jennings and Lee Evans, and cornerback DeAngelo Hall. Those are the guys with whom Fitz organizes the work. But so many others have started to come.
“Whoever comes, they come and we will get it in,” Fitzgerald said. “Everyone else has just heard word of mouth. I will get a text here and there.”
Fitzgerald said most players don’t come until after July 4, although he has already retreated to his summer home. He’s managed to work out a deal with the University of Minnesota, which allows use of their facilities. The majority of players come and go – “NFL guys, they come to work out one day and you don’t hear from them again,” Fitzgerald said, although he added, “it’s intense.”
Jennings told The Northwestern newspaper “It’s more than just running routes. That’s the perception a lot of people have. (But) you’re working. It will almost break you down. It will take you to that edge to see if you’re going to push through it or you make an excuse why you have to go home.”
And that’s one way to spend a summer vacation.
“Look at Fitz and the success he’s had,” Campbell said. “Why wouldn’t you want to do the same thing?”
OnThInIcE911
Footballguy
Not even relevant comparison's since both players are still under contract 3(?) more years. Comparing him to another RFA like Logan Mankins would be valid since he is did not get the offer he wanted and is now demanding a trade. However Mankins did get an offer to make him a top 5 paid guard and he turned it down. I am not sure what kind of money was offered to V-Jax.
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squistion
Footballguy
The articles are not encouraging, but it seems odd to me that several here have emphatically stated that no HB has ever come back from this type of injury, but when asked for some names they can't come up with one example. As I said before I am sure there probably are several NFL players that can be pointed to, but I was at a loss to come up with any.
I found it interesting that a few of the players coming out of Fitz's camp had great years.. it's something we might want to keep an eye on.
Instinctive
Footballguy
It's probably because anybody who got that injury was never heard from again and thus didn't have a successful career and, thus, is not remembered easily.
massraider
Footballguy
Maybe the comparison isn't perfect, but the 2nd statement is.With the uncertainty over the new CBA, teams aren't looking to give max deals when they don't know which way the wind blows.I also think his DUI gave the team pause, and I also wonder how much priority the Chargers place on FA WR, when they have several other young guys to take care of. So I don't think he's overrated as a player, but I am not a fan in dynasty, because there's a chance he's worthless this year, and we don't know where he's playing next year.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Point taken. I think all players in contract haggles this offseason have a lot in common, though. You can put Miles Austin in the same category as V-Jax, and I think they're both elite talents. You ask the question, so I'm answering: I don't think the Chargers or Cowboys have any concerns at all about these players being elite talents.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
I remember seeing that study posted last year in a thread. Here is the main problem with that study and why it may not pertain so much to Brown:
They were looking mostly at old players and 10+ year old surgery. Most RBs decline rapidly under normal conditions around age 30.
OnThInIcE911
Footballguy
Fair enough. I am just aksing about V-Jax because he is the only one, so far, where neither side is willing to cave and also wondering if it gives any of those who are high on V-Jax pause about his actual talent compared to other top WR's.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'm very high on V-Jax, and I have no doubts at all that his actual talent is elite. I don't think there are a handful of WRs better than him right now.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
The jump from the rooftop paranoia surrounding V-Jax is getting out of hand. I don't like the DUI's, and it is a concern, but worrying about his contract situation is laughable IMO. I think it's time to contact the V-Jax owners.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Valid question. I tried searching for information concerning RB's and achilles tendon injuries the other night, but I gave up after about 15 minutes. Maybe one of the stats guys can chime in? They seem to know all the good websites, and if anyone knows of a website that has historical data for NFL injuries, I'd love to have it. PM me if you don't want to post it publicly... please.
DoubleG
Footballguy
Apparently CBS doesn't agree with you: V-Jack's holdout takes serious turn
News: Chargers WR Vincent Jackson did not sign his restricted free-agent tender before the June 15 deadline, reports the San Diego Union-Tribune, and is reportedly prepared for a lengthy holdout from the team. Jackson would have been under contract for one year at over $3.2 million had he signed the tender, but now his offer can be reduced to 110 percent of his 2009 salary, which is $583,000. Sources say that Jackson is prepared not to play with the Chargers until Week 10, when he must show up and finish the season in order to earn an accrued season under the NFL's Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Analysis: Suddenly there's some risk in drafting Jackson in Fantasy play. If he wasn't willing to sign his tender for $3.2 million for the 2010 season, there's nothing that makes us believe he'll sign the same tender for roughly $2.5 million less. That suggests he'll either wait until Week 10 to play or wait for a contract extension from the Chargers -- and we doubt the Bolts will dish out the bucks quickly on this one. Typically we figure that a player in a contract squabble will eventually show up for training camp, but this case is different given the financial circumstances, and therefore the uncertainty surrounding Jackson makes him a potential nightmare. We can't fully endorse drafting him as a No. 1 WR knowing that he might be unavailable for much of the regular season, so until he's under a contract with the Chargers (or any team), think of him as a quality No. 2 Fantasy WR worth a pick between Rounds 4 and 5. Do not be the owner to reach for him in Rounds 2 or 3 until he has a deal in place.
And this snip from Rotoworld doesn't seem "laughable" either:
"Chargers unsigned restricted free agents Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill have reportedly made "financial preparations" in advance of executing lengthy holdouts that could last through Week 10 of the regular season. "
Yes, in dynasty, he still has a ton of talent. But you could be losing him for most of this season. I don't think it's a given yet, but it's definately worth considering.
squistion
Footballguy
I am beginning to think that it is more likely that no one here can remember any HB who had this type of injury, so they are making the leap that no one has ever come back from it - but that is faulty logic. The only thing I have gotten out of this discussion is that some are saying Brown can't come back, but are unable to come up with any specific examples of NFL HBs who had this injury to support it.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
I can't think of any running backs, but do remember linebacker Jamir Miller had his career ended by a achilles tear. He was coming off the best season of his career and week 1 of the following preseason his career was over at age 28.
n20
Footballguy
Having torn BOTH Achilles Tendons, (right one in November of 2006, left one in November of 2008) I can tell you that the amount of rehab and physical therapy involved just to get back to 90% is tremendous. Not all tears are the same, either. The Achilles is shaped like a V so it can snap at the bottom (usually relatively simple but still terrible) or it can shred closer to the top of the V which is terrible because the entire tendon has to be re-enforced not just where it snapped. I've had one of each and the later is absolutely brutal in comparison to the former. Players that I can remember having an Achilles tear and not being the same are Ronald Curry (tore one, came back and tore the other), LaVar Arrington (never the same) and Brandon Stokley. Stokley is still going but was cut by the Colts after tearing it even though he was successful there.
Long story short, I wouldn't touch an RB recovering from an Achilles tear. Even with top physical trainers and rehabbing as a full time job the odds of the player regaining 100% of their burst (not top speed) is unlikely. If the RB is young enough (like 20 years old) maybe it was a freak injury but I would still shy away.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
My guess is if V-Jax holds out into the season it goes exactly as long as any potential suspension.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Can he serve the suspension while he's holding out?
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Agreed, and sorry to hear that man. That's brutal.Very informative. Thx.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't see why not. He can sign his tender at any point, at which point he'll be under contract and still holding out. As long as his tender is signed, I don't see why the suspension wouldn't start in Week 1.Roman Harper signed his tender today, and he's still talking about a training camp holdout.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Fair enough, but this is a dynasty thread. If V-Jax holds out, then his price becomes more of a bargain than it is now. I already contacted one owner, and he's not worried about the situation at all. It's a business. Guys holding out is not a big deal IMO. If San Diego wants to go into the season with without V-Jax, then so be it. I don't think it happens.
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GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
Yeah, the current CBA can be worked a lot of different ways. It's early. (Time to contact the next V-Jax owner.)
n20
Footballguy
Thanks, man. It's been a long road but it could be much worse... I'll be fine in the long run. My wife gets serious props for having to deal with that crap haha.Interesting thought on VJax only holding out as long as his suspension, F&L. I guess I always assumed that the suspension would have to be X number of games and that his holdout would = X + ?. As an owner, I'm hoping you're rightAgreed, and sorry to hear that man. That's brutal.Very informative. Thx.
Edgar Bennett and NYG's own Joe Montgomery are two.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
The only thing wrong with that is why wouldn't he then just have signed for the 3.2 mil? If he was only planning on holding out for the length of the suspension, why not take the money?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
He's trying to force the Chargers to jumpstart negotiations on a long-term deal. Is there any other avenue that will force the Chargers to the bargaining table? Not signing his tender is a shot in the dark, and a poor one at that, but there's nothing else he can do.V-Jax is not alone, either. IIRC, there are 10 RFAs that haven't signed their tenders. I would bet that none of them hold out beyond the first month of the season.
For clarity's sake, I'm not saying he's planning to hold out for the length of the suspension. I don't think there's much planning going on at all. I think, like a bunch of guys this year, he's pissed and he wants to get paid and he has no idea what to do to show the team he's angry other than not signing his tender.
You don't even have to go that far afield. Look at Jackson's teammate, Marcus McNeil. Now, McNeil has been a bit up and down in the 3 years since his stellar rookie year, but he's still a great player at a premium position protecting the blind side of one of the most valuable players in the entire NFL... and San Diego isn't showing him the money, either. San Diego risking Philip Rivers' health like this suggests to me (and I'm not pretending that I'm the slightest bit unbiased on this) that A.J. is just drawing a line in the sand and taking a stand because he wants to remind everyone once again just who is in charge of the Chargers.With that said, while I don't question VJax's talent in the slightest, every day that passes it looks a little bit more likely that this might be a lost year for VJax owners. I still don't think it's happening. I mean, I know that the Jackson camp is adamant that he's prepared to hold out for 10 weeks... but you HAVE TO be adamant that you're prepared to hold out, or else you have no bargaining power. In order for a threat to hold any power, it has to be credible. If Vincent Jackson came out and said "man, I want a new contract, but I'm not prepared to hold out 10 games to get one", then San Diego would just say "great, then we won't give you one".At this point, there are five possible outcomes.1- San Diego gets VJax a new contract and he doesn't miss anything.2- SD stands firm, but VJax caves and shows up with minimal missed time (the Andre Smith/Michael Crabtree route)3- SD caves and VJax shows up with minimal missed time (the Emmitt Smith route)4- VJax is bluffing, SD calls, and VJax shows up with no contract and minimal missed time (the Walter Jones option)5- VJax is serious, SD stands firm, and VJax sits out 10 games (the Joey Galloway/Keyshawn Johnson route)As a VJax owner, #2 and #3 wouldn't be ideal, but for a proven NFL vet in a system he already knows and with a QB he's already developed a rapport with, they wouldn't be that big of a deal, either. #1 and #4 would wind up being nothing more than blips on the radar- I doubt they'd impact his production this year in the slightest. The only possibility that really troubles me right now is option #5... and I still think that one's a longshot.
No link, but I'd read elsewhere that any suspension wouldn't begin until after a holdout ended.
Put percentages on the 5 options.I have the chance to get him cheap in a contract keeper league where he is only signed for this coming season, so #5 is what really concerns me.And let's play this out. When is the best time for me to approach that owner. Our auction is July 24. The owner can cut him before the auction and get some cap space back. Do I wait until right before then? Or does the situation get resolved or get more clear before then.
To be honest, I really don't have the faintest clue. Most of what I keep hearing from the media is that VJax is a near-lock to hold out this year... just like Texas was a lock to join the Pac-10. I just have a hard time envisioning a player in his position (no lucrative first contract, potential lockout looming) actually going through with it and sitting out half the season. People talk about sitting out half the season all the time, but it's so absurdly rare that it actually happens. The only two instances I can think of are Joey Galloway and Keenan McCardell (I believe I put Keyshawn Johnson in my last post, but he didn't hold out, he was deactivated by the team- it was McCardell who held out and forced a trade to the Chargers).
VJax is going into his 6th season his career high receptions is 68 and he's never had a double digit TD season..When is this "actual talent" going to show up? His numbers threw 5 years are less then guys like Santana Moss and Lee Evans.It's crazy people call this joker elite.. He's far from it, (numbers don't lie) add in the fact he cant stay out of trouble, you have your reason Chargers are not giving in.
led the league in Y/R across the last two seasons, #2 in DVOA, #2 in DYARIs Brandon Marshall elite? Let's compare their stats across the last 2 yearsBMarsh: 2420 YFS, 16 TDVJax: 2345 YFS, 16 TDand he did that on 78 fewer catches (and 2 fewer rush attempts)
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I can't for the life of me figure out why people insist on measuring a receiver's talent strictly (or even primarily) on the strength of his reception totals. It's mind-numbing. No one would ever say anything as asinine as "When is Ray Rice's talent going to show up? The dude's never had more than 254 rushing attempts!". No one would dream of saying "When will Philip Rivers' actual talent show up? He's never topped 490 passing attempts!", either (by the way... the fact that Rivers has never had more than 490 passing attempts might be ever-so-slightly correlated to the fact that VJax has never had huge reception totals). Yet for some reason, people keep trotting out that same tired old "three straight 100-reception seasons!!!11!!1!one!" stat for Brandon Marshall and denigrating guys like the Jackson Brothers (Vincent and Desean) for their reception totals.VJax was 2nd in DYAR and 2nd in DVOA in 2009. He was 4th in DYAR and 2nd in DVOA in 2008. Personally, I think the FO stats are extremely flawed when it comes to evaluating WRs... but at the end of the day, if you have far and away the best cumulative DVOA and DYAR figure over the last two years, you're doing something right. When you're averaging 10.9 yards per target as the #1 receiver over a 2-year, 200+ target sample, you're doing something right. When you post IDENTICAL NUMBERS to Brandon Marshall (a guy that many people are touting as the #1 dynasty WR right now) on 127 fewer targets, you're doing something wildly, ridiculously, mind-bogglingly right.
Just think about that for a second. If your passing game could get the same production with 127 fewer passing attempts, wouldn't that be a good thing? In 2008, the San Diego Chargers posted 50 fewer passing yards than the Philadelphia Eagles... on 128 fewer attempts. Wouldn't you say that the Chargers' passing offense was RADICALLY better than the Eagles' that year? The game of football essentially breaks down to one simple rule- you have 4 tries to get 10 yards. As a result, anything that gets you yards provides positive value, and anything that wastes a try provides negative value. If you try 3 times and don't get any yards, then you have put yourself in a worse position than when you started. As a result, anything that represents a usage of tries should be regarded as a NEGATIVE VALUE INDICATOR which must therefore be offset by a comparable positive value indicator (yards, TDs, first downs) in order for a player to be perceived as "good". For example, Eddie George in 2001 used 315 rushing attempts. That's a massive amount of negative value represented right there. Think of how many of his team's precious downs he wasted. And for that incredible investment of offensive plays, what did George have to show for it? A paltry 914 rushing yards, less than 3 yards per attempt. No one in their right mind would possibly say that Eddie George had a great season because he got 300+ rushing attempts, would they? But that's EXACTLY what people are doing when they praise 100-catch WRs who post similar TD/FD/Yard totals to 70-catch WRs- they're praising a guy for wasting offensive possessions.
None of this is to say that getting 300 carries is a bad thing. Chris Johnson had 358 carries last season, which represents a tremendous amount of offensive snaps used; however, he took those 358 carries and produced a whopping 2006 yards with them. The positive value he produced dramatically outweighed the plays he took to produce it. In the same way, getting 100 catches isn't necessarily a bad thing. If you're getting boatloads of yards and first downs to go with those catches, then more power to you. This is to say, however, that any time you can get the same number of yards, first downs, and TDs while using fewer offensive plays in the process, that's a good thing and represents a ridiculously efficient use of offense.
Bringing this back in to VJax... he's probably the most efficient receiver in the entire league. Nobody in the entire NFL produces more yards, TDs, or First Downs out of every target than Vincent Jackson. Short field, long field, doesn't matter. Physical play in traffic or running finesse routes down the field, doesn't matter. Yards per target, DVOA, conversion% in the red zone, first downs per target... it doesn't matter what measure of efficiency you use, Vincent Jackson tops every list. Even if you don't care one whit about efficiency and want to see the raw compiling stats... over the last two years, VJax is 11th in yards, 10th in first downs, and 8th in fantasy points. That's compiling stats aplenty.
If you look at VJax's career trajectory, there's nothing at all troubling about it. He did absolutely nothing his first two seasons... but so what? He was a project WR from Division II Northern Colorado who was playing a position best known for players who do nothing their first two seasons. In his third season he finally earned a starting job, but was invisible for fantasy purposes... but so what? He was the 3rd option (behind Gates and a still-in-his-prime Tomlinson) on the 26th best passing offense in the NFL. In his 4th season, VJax was the #12 fantasy WR. In his 5th season, VJax was the #10 fantasy WR. He's been steadily tracking upwards his entire career, from game-day inactive to part-time starter to regular starter to fantasy WR1 to primary option.
You're right that the numbers don't lie... but the only numbers that don't scream "elite" for Vincent Jackson are those quaint little reception totals.
az_prof
Footballguy
VJax has elite talent but those of you who factor in Knucklehead factor must take that into consideration and downgrade him. Multiple DUI convictions over a three year span from 2006 to 2009, which tells me the guy has a serious problem that hasn't been addressed. Driving with a suspended license. Now threatening to hold out on his contract? By the way, I am pretty sure that the suspension he will likely serve could not coincide with time missed for holding out--if this has ever been done before I would like to see a posting because I can never recall that happening before.
http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/nfl_news.cfm?news_id=1405
"In the past few years, San Diego Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson has compiled a fairly long history of run-ins with the law on the road. He has DUIs from 2006 and 2009 on his record. He was pulled over on Jan. 17 after police heard loud music coming from his car. While he wasn't cited, Jackson was driving on a suspended license due to his 2009 DUI. He pleaded guilty to knowingly driving on a suspended license on Friday. Jackson will receive a fine of less than $1,000 and around 80 hours of community service as part of a plea deal. Jackson had been on probation for his 2006 DUI conviction and he pleaded guilty on his 2009 DUI case in February. For this most recent DUI, Jackson received four days of roadside trash pickup, five years of probation, 15 days of community service and a $2,408 fine. Because of Jackson's two DUIs since 2006, he is likely to face a suspension under the league's substance abuse policy."
http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/nfl_news.cfm?news_id=1405
"In the past few years, San Diego Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson has compiled a fairly long history of run-ins with the law on the road. He has DUIs from 2006 and 2009 on his record. He was pulled over on Jan. 17 after police heard loud music coming from his car. While he wasn't cited, Jackson was driving on a suspended license due to his 2009 DUI. He pleaded guilty to knowingly driving on a suspended license on Friday. Jackson will receive a fine of less than $1,000 and around 80 hours of community service as part of a plea deal. Jackson had been on probation for his 2006 DUI conviction and he pleaded guilty on his 2009 DUI case in February. For this most recent DUI, Jackson received four days of roadside trash pickup, five years of probation, 15 days of community service and a $2,408 fine. Because of Jackson's two DUIs since 2006, he is likely to face a suspension under the league's substance abuse policy."
gianmarco
Footballguy
As always, a
.That said, I do think you're missing something when people keep harping on receptions. It's not so much the receptions, but a combination of looking at both targets and receptions. The problem with WR's is that they don't touch the ball as often as RB's or QB's. Thus, the difference between 20 target or 20 receptions is a very big deal for WR's (compared to 20 carries or pass attempts for RB's and QB's). So, in order for WR's to be very productive, particularly when valued in the top 10, is to either get a large amount of targets/receptions or to produce at an elite level. So while receptions aren't necessarily a marker of how good a WR is (I'll qualify that later), a high reception total means 2 things for fantasy terms:
1) The team likes throwing to that WR (usually because they are a high quality talent)
2) That WR doesn't have to produce at an elite per target level to put up solid fantasy numbers
So yes, looking at it from an NFL standpoint, those WRs aren't as efficient, but that really doesn't matter for fantasy terms with the exception being that if a WR is producing very poorly on a per target number, they MAY go down. However, that's usually unlikely as we've noticed with guys like Welker and Marshall who, while having lower YPR than other WRs like the Jackson brothers, are still held in high regard.
So why does that potentially knock down V. Jackson (or DeSean). The reason that fantasy owners are hesistant is that Jackson's value and production is tied to one thing: his elite production on the field. And any time a player performs THAT well (#1 WR on a pt/target basis over the last 2 years), then there's the chance he's not able to sustain that. Thus, if his production/target slips for whatever reason, then his overall production goes down (obviously). The problem is, he doesn't have enough targets/receptions to make up for that decreased production. This is why owners worry about WRs with low reception totals. They're waiting for the other shoe to drop. They're worried about that drop in production. And, unless a WR is very established, it's hard to trust WRs with only 1-2 seasons under their belt with top level production when they're only catching so many balls. In other words, V. Jackson has no margin for error. If his production drops, he now goes from a top performing WR to an average WR pretty quickly. High reception WRs buffer that because the number of balls they catch often makes up for any decreased production. And finally, most owners feel more comfortable looking at a high reception WR and seeing them repeating those reception totals than a WR like Jackson or Jackson repeating their elite production/touch.
The last point is that his upside is capped with his limited targets/receptions. He's been producing at an unbelievable level and still barely cracked the top 10. There's really no room for his production to go up. So, the only way he can crack the top 5 by year's end is simply to see more targets. He really can't do much more than what he is with what he's getting. Unfortunately, there is 0 indication that's going to happen. Which is surprising given how well he's done with his balls, but SD isn't willing to throw him the ball more for whatever reason. It limits his upside and that's an issue for some owners.
From an NFL standpoint, in terms of production, Jackson is most definitely elite. From a fantasy standpoint, while each reception doesn't mean much for a player's NFL team, it means a lot for fantasy owners because he's touching the ball more to put up more points and that's easier to predict to continue than for a player like VJax to continue his monster, elite production.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Let me add one other thing about VJax and his looming suspension and holdout.
Part of the reason VJax is holding out is to not risk injury without having a long-term contract in place. If not for that, he'd play the season at $3 million and then get paid after this year. But, if he gets hurt, then he loses that future contract.
Thus, VJax COULD come back in week 6 and have his suspension served during that time and start playing in week 10 but it goes against the major reason he's holding out which is to not get hurt. Thus, he's most likely to sit out the first 10 weeks, then come back in week 11 to get credit for the season but then start his suspension. Then, he only has to play in weeks 15 and 16 and he's done.
VJax owners need to prepare for him being out all of 2010. It's a very real and I'd say likely possibility.
Part of the reason VJax is holding out is to not risk injury without having a long-term contract in place. If not for that, he'd play the season at $3 million and then get paid after this year. But, if he gets hurt, then he loses that future contract.
Thus, VJax COULD come back in week 6 and have his suspension served during that time and start playing in week 10 but it goes against the major reason he's holding out which is to not get hurt. Thus, he's most likely to sit out the first 10 weeks, then come back in week 11 to get credit for the season but then start his suspension. Then, he only has to play in weeks 15 and 16 and he's done.
VJax owners need to prepare for him being out all of 2010. It's a very real and I'd say likely possibility.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Agree.That's what I was trying to point out on the last page (and wasn't very clear). If his plan (or agent's plan) is to serve his suspension concurrent with his holdout, then take the money and sit out. If his plan is to not play much of the season, then do what you're suggesting - hold out for 10 games, report, serve the suspension, and not be eligible to play very much of the season.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
And what if we don't?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Oh, give me a break. Receptions are vastly overrated. He had more first downs than Brandon Marshall last year on 33 fewer receptions. That's amazing production.
Touchdowns? If you want to draw the line for elite at a random number like 10, then you can take Andre Johnson out of the elite discussion too.
In addition to finishing first in Football Outsiders' DVOA efficiency metrics, he also finished first in Pro Football Focus' ratings. If you don't like metrics, then watch the guy play. If you can't spot talent, then you can't be helped. His elite talent is undeniable.
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