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Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

'The Real Yoda said:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/38169/59/draft-fallout-dynasty-winners?pg=1soooo, pretty much all the QB's in the league gained? That's all we can get for dynasty winners? zzzzzzzzzzzz
Seems like kind of a throw away article to me too. It's hard to tell at this point who the winners and losers are though as there are a ton of skill position FAs and who knows how it will all play out. There are a lot of interesting RBs on the FA market and where they end up will have a huge impact on the value of the other RBs on the team (and on the FA). I think the Giants are probably the dream destination of any FA RB owner. If instead of Bradshaw, they sign Deangelo, Mike Bush, Ced Benson, Joe Addai or whoever that guy's value skyrockets in my opinion. That's a good offense that uses the RB a lot and I don't think there's a ton of competition for the starting job (though Jacobs could vulture some TDs).As far as "downside," I'd definitely be scared if I was a Moreno owner. He is a guy who could see his value really fall if Denver signs a guy like Deangelo. Daniel Thomas in Miami is a guy who could potentially end up in a RBBC. Or the Phins could just sign a Darren Sproles type and his value would go way up. Same with Delone Carter in Indy.
 
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/38169/59/draft-fallout-dynasty-winners?pg=1

soooo, pretty much all the QB's in the league gained? That's all we can get for dynasty winners? zzzzzzzzzzzz
Seems like kind of a throw away article to me too.
For the record, that article took about 2-3 weeks of research and twice as many writing hours as most of my articles do. You just can't have draft losers like Knowshon Moreno and Steven Jackson when their teams didn't address the position. The draft isn't going to bring Dynasty winners at running back and wide receiver very often. The nature of the draft helps established QBs and hurts veteran RBs and WRs.

 
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/38169/59/draft-fallout-dynasty-winners?pg=1

soooo, pretty much all the QB's in the league gained? That's all we can get for dynasty winners? zzzzzzzzzzzz
Seems like kind of a throw away article to me too.
For the record, that article took about 2-3 weeks of research and twice as many writing hours as most of my articles do. You just can't have draft losers like Knowshon Moreno and Steven Jackson when their teams didn't address the position. The draft isn't going to bring Dynasty winners at running back and wide receiver very often. The nature of the draft helps established QBs and hurts veteran RBs and WRs.
The lead in to that article was pretty straightforward:

"Determining clear-cut, post-draft Dynasty league winners was more challenging this year than ever. With free agency and trading season delayed, dozens of key offensive parts will be on the move at least four months later than normal. A mediocre fantasy situation in late June can suddenly turn promising by late July (and vice versa)."

This is a tough year to handicap as of now and a tough environment to post in. I guess FF guys are used to really good stuff from Chris (I know I am) and are surprised when there isn't more. But for now we just go with what we do know.

Looking forward to the frenzied period ahead F&L and we'll have a lot of ground to cover.

I got my popcorn.

 
If Jones turns out to be as good as most people think he is, it will probably hurt White some. How much? Depends on the offense and Ryan. There are teams that have sustained two top 10 WRs. Traditionally, Atlanta is not one of those teams.

But the one thing people need to account for somewhat is that the success rate of first round WRs is (I think...trying to recall a study that was done here) less than 50%. And of the successes, very few put up big numbers their first season. So how much Jones will affect White in 2011 is MORE LIKELY a lot less than people expect. Beyond that? It's hard to know for sure. I generally do not rank rookies as highly as most until I at least see them playing NFL competition.

This season in particular I think you need to discount rookies even more because of the lack of OTAs and the shortened preseason camp. Rookie receivers need time to learn how to run routes as a professional and to develop a rapport with the QB.

 
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This season in particular I think you need to discount rookies even more because of the lack of OTAs and the shortened preseason camp. Rookie receivers need time to learn how to run routes as a professional and to develop a rapport with the QB.
You mean like this?http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/02QP12q3gofIp/x350.jpg :D Of course, trouble for Jones is that he is hurt...
 
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But the one thing people need to account for somewhat is that the success rate of first round WRs is (I think...trying to recall a study that was done here) less than 50%. And of the successes, very few put up big numbers their first season. So how much Jones will affect White in 2011 is MORE LIKELY a lot less than people expect. Beyond that? It's hard to know for sure. I generally do not rank rookies as highly as most until I at least see them playing NFL competition.
If you define success as at least 100 career VBD, then the success rate of first round WRs is around 35% (using PFR numbers, 1993-2006 drafts). And only 23% of the first round WRs were fantasy relevant (top 36 WRs) in their rookie season. If you look only at early first rounders those numbers are about 10% higher, although it depends on where you put the cutoff for "early".
 
Whats Kenny Britt fetching this days?
I gave up Mike Williams (Tampa) to get him in one league. A definite over payment compared to what I have seen others get him for in the 'offseason dynasty trades' thread. I also knew the owner who had him wouldn't have traded him at all if he wasn't in a bunch of legal trouble, and definitely wouldn't sell low either.Another league I've owned him since last year and there have been a few people inquiring. I make it pretty clear that he isn't going to be sold for cheap and haven't even been given an offer.
 
Down on Tampa mike? He won't get 11 tds again but he still should be pretty good.
I think I'm just down on the entire TB offense. In fact, I owned Freeman, MW and Blount and traded them all away this offseason. I don't think they're bad, I just don't think they are going to be anything special, and last year was aided by a pretty soft schedule. Also, I just like Britt more than MW. That isn't an insult.
 
I would be curious on what people thought about Jeremy Maclin going forward. He is the one young up-and-coming receiver that I have not seen play much. He is obviously in a great system, but does he have the talent to become a top 10 WR in this league? He is still very young and has time to refine his weaknesses. Honestly I don't remember being too excited about the guy coming out of college but have not had a chance to see him since.

 
I would be curious on what people thought about Jeremy Maclin going forward. He is the one young up-and-coming receiver that I have not seen play much. He is obviously in a great system, but does he have the talent to become a top 10 WR in this league? He is still very young and has time to refine his weaknesses. Honestly I don't remember being too excited about the guy coming out of college but have not had a chance to see him since.
I don't think he will be top 10.But he should be a nice WR in the 15-18 range for a very long time to come. I liked him a lot coming out of college, and he;s done about what I thought he would.
 
Maclin is an elite talent. He was seen as a top 10 pick in mocks when he came out. His speed and hands are great. He is not huge, but he has excelled in red zone packages. He also is more ripped now than he was at any point in his first two years. Physically he's not much different from Roddy White.

The Eagles offense is not geared towards producing 90 catch WRs. I think Maclin could be that good if it were, but the Eagles, especially with Vick, will emphasize big plays and scoring quick. The 10 TDs he produced last year may be hard to do consistently, especially if the team adds Plaxico, but he'll be consistently good. He's no doubt a top 15 WR.

 
I have Nicks 10th on an all-position cheat sheet.
Is there a good source of dynasty ratings out there this year? I'll admit to being more of a tuna than a shark, so sites like the Tundra blog or the DynastyRankings.net site were really helpful to me in determining the long-term value of players I was interested in for my keeper league.
 
Where are the tiered rankings at on Rotoworld? You still with them. Their dynasty stuff in their "draft guide" is subpar. Was hoping to find your tiered rankings in there??

 
I have Nicks 10th on an all-position cheat sheet.
Is there a good source of dynasty ratings out there this year? I'll admit to being more of a tuna than a shark, so sites like the Tundra blog or the DynastyRankings.net site were really helpful to me in determining the long-term value of players I was interested in for my keeper league.
I'll be dusting off DR.net and getting things rolling over there pretty soon. I've got a lot of catching up to do, first; after a kerfuffle with Comcast, I took advantage of the NFL lockout to let my internet connection lapse, so I'm desperately behind on most of the news from this past offseason.
 
I have Nicks 10th on an all-position cheat sheet.
Is there a good source of dynasty ratings out there this year? I'll admit to being more of a tuna than a shark, so sites like the Tundra blog or the DynastyRankings.net site were really helpful to me in determining the long-term value of players I was interested in for my keeper league.
I'll be dusting off DR.net and getting things rolling over there pretty soon. I've got a lot of catching up to do, first; after a kerfuffle with Comcast, I took advantage of the NFL lockout to let my internet connection lapse, so I'm desperately behind on most of the news from this past offseason.
welcome back
 
Buys:

Tim Tebow - QB - Broncos - I don't see the Broncos starting Orton for 16 games unless they are winning. I don't expect them to win many games. I think Tebow will be named the starter at some point, and his potential alone is worth going out of your way to acquire. Even if I wasn't a Tebow believer, I would buy, then sell after a 25 point game, which I think he has this year. In 4pt passing TD leagues, I am especially high on stashing Tebow and the 6pt TD potential on my bench for the first half of the season.

Miles Austin - WR - Cowboys - I don't put it past the Cowboys to have two 1,000/8 TD wideouts, but I won't count on it happening. I think the lion's share of the WR touches will be up for grabs and I think Austin is the best equipped to demand them. Austin looked like the best WR in the NFL and a top 3 dynasty option, 5 weeks into last season. Austin is the safer bet, in my opinion, and has the lower price tag.

Stevan Ridley - RB - Patriots - He wasn't on many dynasty radars, even up to the draft, when the Patriots surprised people and took him in the 3rd, after taking Vereen a round before. He has gone undrafted or lasted until the late 3rd/4th round in my rookie drafts, which is a mistake. The Patriots didn't draft him to be a backup. The drafted him to fill a niche, and he will do that for them. He is a better football player than BJGE, especially in the Redzone, and we saw what the Law Firm did with Redzone touches. I don't expect him to start, but I expect him to be a piece of the offense. His price is as low as it will get, in my opinion. I am targeting with future 3rds and as a throw in.

Jerome Simpson - WR - Bengals - This is a bit of a lottery ticket and his value seems to be all over the board. I love Green as a prospect, but even top 5 WRs bust at a 50% rate. If the coin lands on the wrong side in the Green investment, there is potential to see if Simpson's end of season tear was a fluke or a preview of a long term producer.

Jason Witten - TE - Cowboys - The most consistently productive TE of the last 5 years. He finished as the top scoring player at his spot, but is still being undervalued. He shows up to play, he gets open, and he catches the football. I have been cashing in on the fear re: Bryant/slow start, all off season. He started slow because the Cowboys cut the playbook down and used Witten to help their injured, makeshift O-line. When the line healed up, Witten scored major points. It had nothing to do with Romo vs. Kitna (see Witten's history with Romo at QB).

Selling:

Matt Forte - RB - Bears - He is being valued as a RB1, even in non-PPR leagues. I don't think he is a RB1, talent wise. The Bears didn't find much in the way of competition, but remember - the Bears were using a washed up Chester Taylor as their goal line back, because Forte was so inept at it. That scares me. Marion has clearly lost a step, but if he is good for anything, it is finding a way into the endzone.

Reggie Bush - RB - Dolphins - I don't think Miami is a better situation for the once Heisman winner. The offense is less equipped to take advantage of Reggie's talents. Just because his path to a lead role seems more open, doesn't mean he is better equipped for said role. He has some buzz, and I am looking to cash in on that.

Philip Rivers - QB - Chargers - The Chargers won the games that Rivers didn't have to throw 30 times. The special teams can't get any worse, Matthews is healthy and there will be less on Philip's shoulders. I except his ATT numbers to come back down to earth, brining his FF points down with them.

Holding:

Ed Dickson - TE - Ravens - His value soared with Heap signing elsewhere. He is young, athletic, and a flashy name in dynasty circles right now. As tempted as I am to sell him at this peak, I am holding as I think his value will rise even more as he gets a chance to produce. I am not sold enough to actively acquire him right now, however.

 
Philip Rivers - QB - Chargers - The Chargers won the games that Rivers didn't have to throw 30 times. The special teams can't get any worse, Matthews is healthy and there will be less on Philip's shoulders. I except his ATT numbers to come back down to earth, brining his FF points down with them.
His FF points did come back to earth the last 6 weeks of the year, and he ended up not much different from Peyton and Roethlisberger. Do you expect them to come down further? Rivers will continue to be a QB1 for as long into the future as any of us care to look. There is a point that if you can "downgrade" to Roethlisberger or Freeman or Ryan and get a premium you should do it, but Rivers is an incredibly safe player to own. I would find it hard to just call him a "Sell" without a lot of disclaimers.
 
Philip Rivers - QB - Chargers - The Chargers won the games that Rivers didn't have to throw 30 times. The special teams can't get any worse, Matthews is healthy and there will be less on Philip's shoulders. I except his ATT numbers to come back down to earth, brining his FF points down with them.
His FF points did come back to earth the last 6 weeks of the year, and he ended up not much different from Peyton and Roethlisberger. Do you expect them to come down further? Rivers will continue to be a QB1 for as long into the future as any of us care to look. There is a point that if you can "downgrade" to Roethlisberger or Freeman or Ryan and get a premium you should do it, but Rivers is an incredibly safe player to own. I would find it hard to just call him a "Sell" without a lot of disclaimers.
I am referring to year end totals when I mention his numbers coming back down to earth. He is still being drafted and valued a tier below Rodgers, but a tier above everyone else.An informed owner like you wouldn't be my ideal trading partner, in moving Rivers. But his career season is still on the minds of the masses and - as you echo - now is the perfect time to "downgrade" to Roethlisberger, Romo, and Brady.
 
Jason Witten - TE - Cowboys - The most consistently productive TE of the last 5 years. He finished as the top scoring player at his spot, but is still being undervalued. He shows up to play, he gets open, and he catches the football. I have been cashing in on the fear re: Bryant/slow start, all off season. He started slow because the Cowboys cut the playbook down and used Witten to help their injured, makeshift O-line. When the line healed up, Witten scored major points. It had nothing to do with Romo vs. Kitna (see Witten's history with Romo at QB).
Witten is a guy I like to have on all my teams. No, he isn't Antonio Gates. But he can be had for a lower price.
 
Why is it unpinned? NO!
:lmao: I've been wondering all summer what happened to this thread. I always cruise right by the pinned ones, and really just look at the first page (and infrequently at that). So, I'm glad it isn't pinned. Now I can tell there is something going on when it keeps getting bumped. :thumbup:
 
What do the top 5 rooks like if you are drafting today?IngramGreenJonesWilliamsCobbSomething like that?
Cobb at 5? Wow? I have Thomas and Little definitely ahead of him. Then I personally would have Vereen, Carter, and Baldwin ahead of him, and could understand if Helu was picked ahead of him.Cobb looks like a nice player, but there is only one football in Green Bay, and there are a lot of guys ahead of him in the pecking order, including 2 studs in Jennings/Finley. Even if Cobb moves ahead of Nelson/Jones/Driver (Big if), are there still enough looks for him to go 5? Maybe a few years down the road, but do you want to wait it out for 3 years with the 5th pick in the draft?
 
I have Nicks 10th on an all-position cheat sheet.
Is there a good source of dynasty ratings out there this year? I'll admit to being more of a tuna than a shark, so sites like the Tundra blog or the DynastyRankings.net site were really helpful to me in determining the long-term value of players I was interested in for my keeper league.
I'll be dusting off DR.net and getting things rolling over there pretty soon. I've got a lot of catching up to do, first; after a kerfuffle with Comcast, I took advantage of the NFL lockout to let my internet connection lapse, so I'm desperately behind on most of the news from this past offseason.
Nice to have you back SSOG. Look forward to seeing your updated rankings.Have you noticed Chicago coaches giving Hester a lot of love? I know it took you a long time to bail on him. Any chance he hooks you back in?
 
I have Nicks 10th on an all-position cheat sheet.
Is there a good source of dynasty ratings out there this year? I'll admit to being more of a tuna than a shark, so sites like the Tundra blog or the DynastyRankings.net site were really helpful to me in determining the long-term value of players I was interested in for my keeper league.
I'll be dusting off DR.net and getting things rolling over there pretty soon. I've got a lot of catching up to do, first; after a kerfuffle with Comcast, I took advantage of the NFL lockout to let my internet connection lapse, so I'm desperately behind on most of the news from this past offseason.
Nice to have you back SSOG. Look forward to seeing your updated rankings.Have you noticed Chicago coaches giving Hester a lot of love? I know it took you a long time to bail on him. Any chance he hooks you back in?
D'oh. Just noticed you already posted them. Looks like no Hester love yet. looks like you cooled a bit on Lloyd & Collie? I thought I remembered you being higher on them. I love Collie, but Lloyd, not so much. Lots of love for AJGreen and Julio, too. Like it. Interesting to notice you have 2 WR groups in the top 12 from Dallas & Atlanta, but I can't really nitpick it. Tiers 3 and 4 for me seem pretty close.Thanks for the rankings!
 
D'oh. Just noticed you already posted them. Looks like no Hester love yet.
FWIW, those are Jason Kirsner's rankings not SSOG's. Hester has to be top 20 in SSOG's rankings. J/K.
Yeah, Jason is jumping into the rankings game this year, too. As soon as I finish up my rankings, mine will be the default and Jason's will be accessible by drop-down.I've already finished QB and TE rankings, so I just have to knock out RB and WRs. After that, I'll let Jason know, and my rankings will be live by tonight or tomorrow.I've essentially been in Siberia, so I'm looking forward to you all looking over my rankings and eviscerating them, making sure I'm ranking a player based on my own (off-the-wall) opinions about him rather than based on a lack of information.
 
D'oh. Just noticed you already posted them. Looks like no Hester love yet.
FWIW, those are Jason Kirsner's rankings not SSOG's. Hester has to be top 20 in SSOG's rankings. J/K.
Yeah, Jason is jumping into the rankings game this year, too. As soon as I finish up my rankings, mine will be the default and Jason's will be accessible by drop-down.I've already finished QB and TE rankings, so I just have to knock out RB and WRs. After that, I'll let Jason know, and my rankings will be live by tonight or tomorrow.

I've essentially been in Siberia, so I'm looking forward to you all looking over my rankings and eviscerating them, making sure I'm ranking a player based on my own (off-the-wall) opinions about him rather than based on a lack of information.
Good. That's my plan :thumbup: ;)
 
My rankings are done and submitted. They're just waiting for final approval before they go live. In the meantime, the rankings on DR.net belong to Jason Kirsner, so make sure you address your insults to the proper ranking authority. ;)

Also, in case any sharp-eyed owner notices that Freeman is missing from my QB list, I was experiencing some technical difficulties. He's supposed to be ranked 12th between Schaub and Cutler.

 
My rankings are done and submitted. They're just waiting for final approval before they go live. In the meantime, the rankings on DR.net belong to Jason Kirsner, so make sure you address your insults to the proper ranking authority. ;)Also, in case any sharp-eyed owner notices that Freeman is missing from my QB list, I was experiencing some technical difficulties. He's supposed to be ranked 12th between Schaub and Cutler.
:clap:
 
My rankings are done and submitted. They're just waiting for final approval before they go live. In the meantime, the rankings on DR.net belong to Jason Kirsner, so make sure you address your insults to the proper ranking authority. ;)Also, in case any sharp-eyed owner notices that Freeman is missing from my QB list, I was experiencing some technical difficulties. He's supposed to be ranked 12th between Schaub and Cutler.
Cool. I like to compare mine to Waldman, Wesseling and yours and see if I'm missing anything.Good resource.Good luck this year.
 

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